Donald JR MacRae Lloyds TSB Scotland 12th April 2005 Scotland’s Business Growth Enterprise and...
-
Upload
maryann-maxwell -
Category
Documents
-
view
217 -
download
3
Transcript of Donald JR MacRae Lloyds TSB Scotland 12th April 2005 Scotland’s Business Growth Enterprise and...
Donald JR MacRae
Lloyds TSB Scotland
12th April 2005
Scotland’s Business Growth
Enterprise and Culture CommitteeThe Scottish Parliament
Scotland - The Gap?
Source: Measuring Scotland’s Progress Towards Smart, Successful Scotland 2004.
4 3 2 1
Scotland’s Quartile Position in OECD Countries 2002No. of
Comparators
30
18
11
21
26
9
2930
30
29
2815
Overall Progress
GDP per head
Growing Businesses
New business starts per 10k head pop.
% of businesses trading on-line
Business R&D as % of GDP
Relative productivity levels
Global Connections
Cost & coverage of broadband
% employers exporting
Graduates as % of workforce
Net migration as % population
Skills & Learning
Employment rate
% of 16-19 year old NEET*
% in employment undertaking training
* Not in education, employment or training.
0
40
80
120
160
200
240L
uxe
mb
ou
rg
US
A
No
rway
Eir
e
Sw
itze
rlan
d
Can
ada
Den
mar
k
Net
her
lan
ds
Au
stri
a
Icel
and
Au
stra
lia
UK
Bel
giu
m
Sw
eden
Fra
nce
Jap
an
Fin
lan
d
SC
OT
LA
ND
Ger
man
y
Ital
y
OE
CD
Sp
ain
New
Zea
lan
d
Ko
rea
Gre
ece
Po
rtu
gal
Cze
ch R
epu
bli
c
Hu
ng
ary
Slo
vak
Rep
ub
lic
Po
lan
d
Tu
rkey
Index: OECD = 100GDP per Capita - 2002 PPPs
Source: OECD (2004), DTI: Regional Competitiveness & State of the Regions (May 2004).
Note: Scotland estimated at 94.6% of UK.
high income high middle income group low middle income group group 101-120 51-100 over 120
International Comparisons of GDP Growth 1973 - 2001
5.2
3.33.0
2.8 2.82.6
2.3 2.2 2.1 2.01.8
1.6
Irel
and
No
rway
Can
ada
Un
ited
Sta
tes
Jap
an
Fin
lan
d
Ital
y
Fra
nce UK
Ger
man
y
Sw
eden
Sco
tlan
d
Country
Growth, per cent
Source: Goudie (2003).
Key Drivers of Productivity Improvement
• Human capital
• Physical capital
• Innovation
• Enterprise
• Competitiveness
Population Trends: Scotland and UK, 1951-2011
Source: Scottish Executive (2000).
UK
Scotland
Index:1995 = 100
Scotland’s Birthrate in a European Context
1.241.25
1.29
1.291.42
1.50
1.571.651.69
1.69
1.731.74
1.90
1.90
Italy
Spain
Germany
Greece
Portugal
Scotland
Sweden
Belgium
England
Netherlands
Finland
Denmark
France
Ireland
Total Fertility Rate* 2001
Source: Turner, A., Reflections on the Allander Series. (2004).
* Children per woman
Assumed Annual Long Term Migration by AgeScotland 2006-2007 onwards
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
-1,000
-2,000
-3,000
Persons
0-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65 & overYears of Age
Source: Experian Business Strategies, March 2005.
GDP per Hour Worked 2001
132.9119.9 118.1
100.0 95.787.2
France USA Germany UK Scotland Japan
Index: UK = 100
Source: Scottish Economic Report November 2004.
% working age population in employment OECD
% 16-19 year oldsNEET* OECD
% 20-24 year oldswith at least NVQ 3 UK
% young people with adequate skills (PISA) OECD
% working age populationin education, training UKor employment
Scotland - Skills and Learning
Indicator Quartile Position Comparators
4 3 2 1
Source: Measuring Smart Successful Scotland (2004). Training and Employment Unit, University of Glasgow.
* Not in education, employment or training.
Business R & D Expenditure
as % Output 1990-98
0.62
1.351.45
1.77
1.98
USA Germany France UK Scotland*
%
Source: Crafts and O’Mahony (2001) and DTI (2001).
*1995 - 99
Source: Global Entrepreneurship Monitor, Scotland 2003.
New Business Activity
Scotland
United Kingdom
Ireland
Aggregate Government Expenditure
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Scotland UK
Source: Goudie (2002). Scottish Executive, GERS 2002-2003.
78-
79 79-
80 80-
81 81-
82 82-
83 83-
84 84-
85 85-
86 86-
87 87-
88 88-
89 89-
90 90-
91 91-
92 92-
93 93-
94 94-
95 95-
96 96-
97 97-
98 98-
99 99-
00 00-
01 01-
02 02-
03
% share in GDP, 1978-79 to 2002-03
Aggregate Government Expenditure % Share GDP 2003
58
56
55
52
51
51
51
50
49
49
49
48
47
47
43
40
35
Sweden
Denmark
France
SCOTLAND 2004**
Belgium
Austria
Finland
SCOTLAND 2002-03*
Italy
Germany
Netherlands
Portugal
Greece
Luxembourg
UK
Spain
Ireland
Source: Verhulst et al. (2005). *GERS 2002-2003; **Author’s calculation
Scotland - The Gap?
Source: Measuring Scotland’s Progress Towards Smart, Successful Scotland 2004.
4 3 2 1
Scotland’s Quartile Position in OECD Countries 2002No. of
Comparators
30
18
11
21
26
9
2930
30
29
2815
Overall Progress
GDP per head
Growing Businesses
New business starts per 10k head pop.
% of businesses trading on-line
Business R&D as % of GDP
Relative productivity levels
Global Connections
Cost & coverage of broadband
% employers exporting
Graduates as % of workforce
Net migration as % population
Skills & Learning
Employment rate
% of 16-19 year old NEET*
% in employment undertaking training
* Not in education, employment or training.