Domestic Demand Victoria Roberts February 24 th 2005.
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Transcript of Domestic Demand Victoria Roberts February 24 th 2005.
Domestic Demand
Victoria Roberts
February 24th 2005
Domestic Energy Supply
Increase in demand due to natural population increase will be balanced by
conservation measures
Energy Requirements:
• Space heating
• Water heating
• Cooking
• Lighting & appliances
Demand is largely determined by changes in population size, household size and resulting number of households
Population and household size:
Number of households
0
5000000
10000000
15000000
20000000
25000000
30000000
35000000
40000000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Year
Nu
mb
er
of
ho
us
eh
old
s
Population
54000000
56000000
58000000
60000000
62000000
64000000
66000000
68000000
1,960 1,970 1,980 1,990 2,000 2,010 2,020 2,030 2,040
Year
Nu
mb
er
of
peo
ple
Household size
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Year
Ho
us
eh
old
siz
e
Space heating
• Increase in ownership of central heating• Leads to higher internal temperatures• Predicted to reach saturation level by 2020• Determined by number of households
Central heating ownership
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Year
Pro
po
rtio
n o
f h
om
es w
ith
cen
tral
hea
tin
g (
%)
Water heating & Cooking
• Water heating: Determined by population size, follows increase in population
• Cooking: Balance between number of households and change in lifestyle.
Lighting & Appliances
• Largely dependent on number of households• Average increase of 1.6% over past 30 years• Efficiency versus increased ownership-
projection difficult: when will improved efficiency start to have an effect?
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Year
En
erg
y c
on
su
mp
tio
n (
PJ
)
Energy use
Energy consumption by end use
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Year
En
erg
y C
on
su
mp
tio
n (
PJ
)
Space heating
Water heating
Cooking
Lights & appliances
Factors limiting demand
• Conservation measures:
• Loft insulation-saturation level
• Cavity wall insulation
• Double glazing
• Draught proofing
• Hot water tank insulation-saturation level
No further increase in proportion of
• Loft insulation:
• Hot water tank insulation:
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Year
Pro
po
rtio
n o
f h
ou
se
s (
%))
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Year
Pro
po
rtio
n o
f h
ou
se
s in
su
late
d (
%))
Cavity walls, double glazing, draught insulation
• Based on projection of number of houses in housing stock:
Potential Savings
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
En
erg
y S
av
ing
(P
J)
Loft insulation
Cavity wall insulation
Double glazing
Draught proofing
Hot water tank insulation
Total
Housing stock• Average of 180,000 houses built per year over past 10 years• Housing replacement rate of 0.7%• New homes will be ~5% more energy efficient as internal
temperatures will rise• Energy savings due to more energy efficient homes:
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Year
En
erg
y s
av
ing
(P
J)
HOWEVER…
• EU Directive on the energy efficiency of buildings could improve efficiency of space heating by 22%
• DELight project could lower consumption for lighting by up to 43% by 2020
• If apply these savings…
Final projected demand:
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Year
En
erg
y (
PJ
) Space heating (PJ)
Water heating (PJ)
Cooking (PJ)
Lighting & appliances (PJ)
Total Demand (PJ)
Assumptions:
Demand:
Population projections assume greatest rate of growth will be 1.75% per year, slowest rate of growth will be 0.25%
Household size will continue its decline until it reaches a lowest possible value of 1.8 in 2030
Proportion of energy used for various end uses remains the same
Assumptions
Conservation measures:Saturation level of loft and hot water tank insulation has already been reachedGrowth in uptake of other conservation measures follows same rate of increase as for past 20 yearsSmall growth in production of detached dwellings is offset by increase in proportion of flatsDouble glazing and draught proofing reach saturation level by 2010, following trend of loft and hot water tank insulationMore energy efficient home saves 4.135 x 10-6PJ per year
Final figures
Total Demand (PJ)
Maximum Minimum Probable
1752 1670 1757
1874 1690 1799
2018 1707 1944
2175 1728 1982
2293 1728 2028
2412 1723 2126
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Fuel Mix
Fuel Mix
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Year
Pe
rce
nta
ge
of
To
tal D
om
es
tic
Fu
el U
se
Coal
Other solid
Natural gas
Electricity
Renewable & waste
Petroleum
Predicted fuel mix
Projected Fuel Mix
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Year
Pro
po
rtio
n o
f T
ota
l Do
me
sti
c F
ue
l
% of total fuel use Coal
% of total fuel use Other solid
% of total fuel use Natural gas
% of total fuel use Electricity
% of total fuel use Renewable & waste
% of total fuel use Petroleum
• By 2030, 75% natural gas, 20% electricity, with other solids, renewable & waste and petroleum making up the final 5%
Energy required by each fuel type:
PJ Required
Coal Other solid Natural gas Electricity Renewable & waste Petroleum
2005 53 18 1230 351 11 123
2010 45 18 1277 360 11 126
2015 39 19 1400 389 14 136
2020 20 0 1447 396 15 139
2025 20 0 1501 406 16 142
2030 0 0 1595 425 21 128
References:
• www.dti.gov.uk• www.statistics.co.uk• www.bre.co.uk• Energy use and energy efficiency in the UK up
to the year 2010• Energy consumption in the UK• Energy forecasting methodology• An economic assessment of some energy
conservation measures in housing and other buildings
