DOES15 - Dominica DeGrandis - The Shape of Uncertainty

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The Shape of Uncertainty Dominica DeGrandis Director, Learning & Development @dominicad [email protected] www.leankit.com

Transcript of DOES15 - Dominica DeGrandis - The Shape of Uncertainty

The Shape of Uncertainty

Dominica DeGrandis Director, Learning & Development

@dominicad [email protected]

www.leankit.com

The next full-margin

rupture of the Cascadia

subduction zone will

spell the worst natural

disaster in the history of

the continent.

The New Yorker July 20, 2015

Year built:

1962

Foundation:

Cinder

blocks with

no rebar

Our house

Year built:

1962

Foundation:

Cinder

blocks with

no rebar

Our house

Types of Metrics

Descriptive

Predictive

Prescriptive

We are trying to be approximately right instead of exactly wrong.

work request done

   

    wait meet to discuss

work

wait work

request arrives

do some work

do some work

consider the work

deliver

When will work be done?  

work

Sep 23

work request done

   

    wait meet to discuss

work

wait work

request arrives

do some work

do some work

consider the work

deliver

When will work be done?  

work

Sep 23

Oct 1

work request done

   

    wait meet to discuss

work

wait work

request arrives

do some work

do some work

consider the work

deliver

When will work be done?  

work

The elapsed time for the work to get done is 8 days Flow time (Process time + wait time) = 8 days  

Sep 23

Oct 1

Plotting elapsed work Flow time da

ys

0  

1  

2  

3  

4  

5  

6  

7  

8  

9  

0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   11  Oct    

work request done

   

   

wait meet to discuss

work

wait work

request arrives

w1

do some work

do some work

consider the work

deliver

More work gets started  

w0

w1 comes in and makes it almost all the way to done, but gets hung up waiting on vendor. While we’re waiting, we pull in work item w2.

w2

work request done

   

   

wait meet to discuss

work

wait work

request arrives

w1

do some work

do some work

consider the work

deliver

The problem in knowledge work is delayed feedback

w2 w4 w5 w3

Still waiting on w1, now blocked More work requests arrive w2 finishes on Oct 2 – took 4 days  

w6

w7

w8

Oct 2

0  

1  

2  

3  

4  

5  

6  

7  

8  

9  

0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10  

Plotting elapsed work Flow time Fl

ow T

ime

Day

s

   Oct    

work request done

   

   

wait meet to discuss

work

wait work

request arrives

w1

do some work

do some work

consider the work

deliver

Starting new work faster than finishing prior work = No flow

w2

w4 w5 w3

We work on too much stuff at the same time We don’t realize the impact of dependencies

w6

DR1.1

w8

work

w11

DR1.2

w14 w10 w15

DR1.3

DR1.4

w16

 Dependency  

PRJT  

DALY  

Dependency x 2

you   friend  X  

X  

X   X  

What’s  the  likelihood  of    Arriving  on  Kme?    

Dependency x 2

you   friend  X  

X  

X   X  

What’s  the  likelihood  of    Arriving  on  Kme?     1 chance in 4 = 25% of arriving on time

Dependency x 3

you   friend   brother  X  

X  

X   X  X  

X   X  X   X  

X   X   X  

Dependency x 3

you   friend   brother  X  

X  

X   X  X  

X   X  X   X  

X   X   X  

1 chance in 8 = 12.5% of arriving on time

work request departs

   

   

wait meet to discuss

work

wait work

request arrives

w1

do some work

do some work

consider the work

deliver

Flow - the movement & delivery of value through the pipeline

w2

w4 w5 w3

That point when we said it would only take 2 days, but it actually took 2 weeks. We have become unpredictable. And our fellow workers don’t trust us anymore.  

w6

p1

work

p2

w10

p3 p4

w17

A1 A2

w7

A3

w18

A4

w19

AUDIT  

PRJCT  

work request departs

   

   

wait meet to discuss

work

wait work

request arrives

w1

do some work

do some work

consider the work

deliver

Flow - the movement & delivery of value through the pipeline

w2

w4 w5 w3

That point when we said it would only take 2 days, but it actually took 2 weeks. We have become unpredictable. And our fellow workers don’t trust us anymore.  

w6

p1

work

p2

w10

p3 p4

w17

A1 A2

w7

A3

w18

A4

w19

AUDIT  

PRJCT  

work request departs

   

   

wait meet to discuss

work

wait work

request arrives

w1

do some work

do some work

consider the work

deliver

Flow - the movement & delivery of value through the pipeline

w2

w4 w5 w3

That point when we said it would only take 2 days, but it actually took 2 weeks. We have become unpredictable. And our fellow workers don’t trust us anymore.  

w6

p1

work

p2

w10

p3 p4

w17

A1 A2

w7

A3

w18

A4

w19

AUDIT  

PRJCT  

Time series plot for completed work

0  

5  

10  

15  

20  

25  

30  

0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10  

days  

 Oct    Sat                  Sun  

Percentile line – 50%

0  

5  

10  

15  

20  

25  

30  

0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10  

days  

 Oct    

50%  

Percentile lines – 50% and 70%

0  

5  

10  

15  

20  

25  

30  

0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10  

days  

 Oct    

50%  

70%  

Percentile lines – 50%, 70%, 90%

0  

5  

10  

15  

20  

25  

30  

0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10  

days  

 Oct    

50%  

70%  

90%  

Map time series plot to histogram

0  

5  

10  

15  

20  

25  

30  

0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10    Oct     0   1   2   3   4  

days  

27              14    11    8    4  2    1  

0  

1  

2  

3  

4  

1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10  11  12  13  14  16  17  18  19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  

Histogram – the shape of uncertainty

 Oct    

Visualizing Uncertainty

An uncertain number is a shape. The longer the tail, the more unpredictable.

280  

90  0-­‐1     10  

Num

ber  o

f  Work  Ite

ms  c

ompleted

 

Number  of  days  to  complete  work  items  

Control Queues Instead of Timelines

Flow time lengthens when WIP increases. To optimize and improve flow, we need to control queues.

200  

60  

90  0   10  

Num

ber  o

f  Work  Ite

ms  d

one  

Number  of  days  to  complete  work  items  

Average FT 4.3 days. 95% work done < 23 days.

Use this graph to quantify the probability of completing X% of the work within Y days.

All Ops Work completed Aug 28 –Oct 12

Unplanned Work Aug 28 –Oct 12

Aug 28 Oct 12

12  data  points  

Num

ber  o

f  Unp

lann

ed  W

ork  ite

ms  

Unplanned Work Aug 28 –Oct 12

Plan for unplanned work!

“If we have data, let’s look at data. If all we have are

opinions, let’s go with mine.”

Jim Barksdale

former Netscape CEO

5 Take Aways:

1.  Consider being approx. right vs. precisely wrong. 2. Adding work to your plate faster than completing prior work increases WIP. 3. The odds of being predictable decrease when WIP increases & FlowTimes elongate 4. Control queues, not timelines to improve flow.

@dominicad

“If predictability is your goal,

the best thing you can do as a leader is reserve capacity”

Troy Magennis Founder, Focused Objective

 

Where is the costliest

uncertainty in your organization?

 

@dominicad

References

@dominicad  

The Shape of Uncertainty Dominica DeGrandis Director, Learning & Development

[email protected] www.leankit.com

@dominicad