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Deudney, Daniel; Flavin, ChristopherRenewable Energy. The _Power to Choose.Worldwatch Inst., Washington, D.C.ISBN-0-3937,01710-9 4--

83445p.W. W. Norton & Company, Inc., 500 Fifth Avenue, NewYork; NY 10110 ($18.95).Reports - General (140) -- Books (010)

41F01 Plus Postage. PC Not Available from EDRS.Building Design; Energy; Energy Occupations;Environmental Education; Fuel Consumption; *Fuels;Industry; *Poker Technology; *Solar Energy;*Technological Advancement; *Wind Energy*Alternative Energy Sources; Energy Education;\Geothermal Energy; *Renewable Energy Resources

This book, consisting of 13 chapters, charts theprogress made in renewable energy in recent'years and outlinesrenewable energy's prospects. Arias addressed include: energy at thecrossroads (discussing oil, gas,, coal, nuclear power, and theconservation revolution); 'solar building design; solar collection;sunlight to electricity; wood; energy from crops.and waste; energy

'from water; wind energy; and geothermal energy. Additional areasaddressed include renewable energy's pote4ial (discussingrebuilding, industry role, renewable energy for the farm and rural

poor, and issues related to transportation and electricity);institutions,for the-transition to renewable energy (focusing.on a

new research anedevelopment.agenda, renewable energytechnology--vernacular technology, and.seed money for the transitionto renewable energy); and shapes of a renewable society (coniidering

new lands9apes, renewable jobs, rebalancing city and country, risingregional/local self-reliance, shifting powere and new balancesbetween rich/po-or, between nations, and between *generatiOns). Notesand selected references are provided for each chapter. Notes onenergy units and an index are also provkded. (JN)

* Reproductions supplied by EDRS are the best that can be made *

* from the original document. .*

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1.4 DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATIONNATIONAL INSTITUTE OF EDUCATION

.EDUCATIONAL fiESOURCES INFORMATIONCENTER (ERIC{

liTho docurnaq has been reproduced esrecenred frorn the ptrson or wpm:soonoognatun nMoot changes have been made to impovereproductron quaky

41. Pants of oar, or %unions stated tn thes documem do not nocessanly represent officerNI

Doman or poky

"PERMISSIOPN TO REPRODUCE THISMATERIAL IN MICROFICHE ONLYHAS BEEN GRANTED BY

TO THE EDUCATIONAL RESOURCESINFORMATION CENAR (ERIC)

,

,,

i-

. Norton/Worldwatch Books-, 1

LesteA. Brown: The Twenty-Ninth Day:Accommodating Human Needs and Numbers to the

Earth's Resources, ..

Lester R. Brown: Building a Sustainable Society

. Lester R. Brown, Christopher Flavin, and ColinNorman: Running on Empty: The Future of the

. Automobile in an Oil-Short World ,

-

Daniel Deudney and Christopher Flavin. RenewableEriergy: The Power to Choose ,

Erik P. Eckholm: Ewing Ground: EnvironmentalStress and World Food Prospects

Erik 13. Eckholm: The Picture of Health:E*ironmental Sources of Disease

Denis Hayes: Rays of Hope: The Transidon to at_.- Post-Petroleutn 'World

Kathleen Newland: The Sisterhood of Man40

Colin Norman: The God That Limps: Science andTechnology in the Eighties

Bruce Stokes: Helping Ourselves; Local Solutions to,Global Problems

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RenewableEnergy

The Power to Choosefi

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. Daniel Deudney. andChristopher Flavin .

A WORLDWATCH INSTITUTE BOOKt

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W . W . NORTON & COMPANY

New York London

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Copyright © 1983 by Worldwatch Institute

c All rights reserved.

Published simultaneously in Canada by George J. McLeod. Limited, Toronto.

Printed in the united States of America.

The text of this book is composed in Avanta, with display typeset in Baker Signd ,Composition and manufacturing by The

Haddon,Crafisman, Inc

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FIRST EDITION

Library cif Congress Cataloging in Publication Data

Deudney, Daniel.

Renewable energy

"A Warldwatch Institute book."k

Includes index

1 Renewable energy sources. 2' Energypolicy I.,Flavin, Christoper II. Title.Tj163.2 D476 1983 533.79 82-1445

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IP

ISBN 0-393-01710-9

W W Norton & t.ompany, Inc., 500 Fifth Avenue,New York, N Y. 101 10

W W Norton & Company Ltd,, 37 Great Russdl Street, LondonWCrB 3Ntl.

113 4 5 67 890 'It'1

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. To our parents

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Contentso

Preface xi

1. Introduction: The Power to Choose 1

ft 2.,

Energy at the CossroadsThe Oil aollercoaster

8

9Natural'Cas:A Temporary Buffer 16

4'ing Coal . 18

Nuclear Power: Too Bieak to Meter 24The Conservation Revolution 31

<viii Contents

3. Building with the SunEnergy and ArchitectureClimate-Sensitive DesignOff the Drawing BoardNew Policies for New BuildingsBuilding for the Future

3536

41

4752

*55

4. Solar Collection 57Heating %Voter and Buildings 59 .

. Solar Energy for Rural Development . 64 ,r

An Evolving Teehno logy 69Sun on the Waters: Solar Ponds and Ocean

' Thermal Energy, Conversion 74Barriers and Incentives 78The Solar Prospect' 84 ,

5. Sunlight to Electricity: The New Vaiemy 87

. A Space-Age Technology 89Research Horizons 92Building an Industry 97".A Future for Solar Po4er ,ioci

6. Wood Crisis, Wood RenaissanceAn Ancient Fuel in CrisiS .

The Return to WoodNew Uses for -WoodA Growing Resource in Stress .Reforesting the EarthThe WoodpEnergy Prospect

7. Growing Fuels: Energy fromCrops and Waste st. 136

The Ethanol BOom 137

Exploiting a Many-Sided Resource Base 144Agricultural Wastes: The Forgotten Asset '148

,i107108112 -115

121

126132

Contents ix

Eneigy from Urban Wastes-Promise and Peril: The Planttwer Prospect 159

Rivers of Energy 164The Power of Falling Water 165

Big OpportUnities and Big Problems 168Maintaining Momentum 175

Small-Scale Hydropower for Rural Development 179

Making Better Use of Existing Dams 184The Hydropower Prospect 4 188

9. Wind Power: A Turning Point 191

Harnessing the Wind 192

A Renaissance for Wind Pumps 196Clear Sailing 199Electricity from Small Wind Machines 200Wind Power for Utilities 263

Obstacles and Opportunities 207Wind's .E nergy Prospect 213

10. Geothermal Energy: The .Powering Inferno 218Subterranean Fires 219The Earth's Energy in Harness %..)221

Technological Frontiers 225

Gebthermat Horizons 228Hot-Water Institutigus 230The Geothermal Prospect 233

11. Working Toget&r:Renewable Energy's Potential 236,,

Rebuilding 237A Fresh Start for Industry 241

Renewable Energy on the Farm 243

Energy for the Rural Poor 245

Transportation Dilemmas 249

x Contents,

Sustainable Electricity 252

Adding Up the Numbers 255

12. Institutions for the Transition 260A New R&D Agenda 261

Using Vernacular Technologies 269

Seed Money: Financing the Transition 275

Opening Up the Grid . 283

Empowering People ,289

13. Shapes of a Renewabl Society 297New Landscapes 298

Renewable Jobs 301

Rebalancing City and Country 303

Rising Self-Reliance 305

Shifting Power 309New Equalities 312

k Notes 317.

Note on Energy Units 397Selected References 399Index 413

t,

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o

Preface

The decade since the 1973 Arab oil embaigo has been aremarkable one for renewable energy. The major shift in theeconoinics of energy that began in the early seventies har-nessed the technological capacities of the late twentieth cen-tury. Since then the world's scientists, engineers, businessmen,and ordirthry citizens have been hard at work in a vigoroussearch for new sources of energy. New ideas and inventionscontinue to command attention in technical journals and news-papers almost daily. Increasingly, solar collectors: wind ma-chines, biogas digesters, and many other renewable energytechnologies are becoming practical everyday devices usedthroughout the world.

xii 1)reface

Renewable Energy. The Power to Choose charts the progressmade in renewable energy in recent years and outlines renew-able energy's prospects. The focus is on practitalghere-and-nowtechnologies, and our intention 4 to be realistic yet hopeful.We suggest a strategy for making the trans* to renewableenergy and evaluate the impact these changes could have ondifferent parts of the world.

Great progress has been made in ihinlcing about energy inthe last decade. Pk' to 1973, energy analysis seemed to consistmainly of drawing exponEntial curves that were intended toforecast future trends by assuming that past trends would con-tinue. Today's world is much more compleiand uncertain, andmajor strides have been taken in understanding the underlyingfactors at work in energy trends, a fact from which we havebenefited greatly. The pioneering work of Amory Lovins hascontributed particularly to our thinking.

We are grateful to the U.S. Solar Energy Research Instituteand the George Gund Foundatia for supporting the reseirchand Writing of this book. The Worldwatch Institute providedan ideal setting for the project with its access to a wide arrayof information sources as well as -a bright and capable stiff.Lester Brown, the president of tWorldwatch, originally sug-gested the writing of this book, and he provided ideas andenthusiastic support throughout. -

9ther membeis of the Worldwatch Institute staff who re-viewed the manuscript and made helpful criticisms are Kath-leen Newland, Pamela Shaw, and Bruce Stokes. Much cif theresearch for the book was carried out by Worldwatch researchassistants Ann Thrupp, Paige TOlbert, and Edward Wolf. Andspecial.thanks.are owed to the entire Worldwatch support stafffor its immense help throughout this project.

Dozens of people outside of Worldwatch provided com-ments and suggestions as the book progressed,The entire man-nscript was reviewed by Todd ,Bartlem, Eri Eckholm, JoseGoldemberg, Denis Hiyes, James Howe, Rpn Larsen, and

12

preface xiii

Vac la% Smil Individual cliapters were reviewed by David An-derson, Carl Aseliden, Thomai Cassel, Bill Chandler, JoeCoates, Jeffrey Cook, Kenneth Darrow, Darian Diathok, RonDi Pippo, Peter Fraenkel, Calvin Fuller, Jon Cudmundsson,Keith Haggard, Michael Holtz, Mark Lyons, Leonard Magid,Paul Nftiycock, Scott Noll, Carel Otte, Alan Postlethwaite,Mortimtr Prince, Vase! Roberts, Robert Schreibeis, DianneShanks, Scott Sklar, Jeffrey L. Smith, Barrett St Kibler, andBen Wolff. Tbeir critical insights have been inv&able.

We also benefited from having a great editor. KathleenCourrier's literary skills were strengthened by her detailedknowledge of renewable energy sources, both helped bring thisbook to life. David Macgregor pitched in and did an excellentjob of editing the footnotes. All remaining omissions and errorsare, of course, our responsibility alone.

Daniel Deudney and Christopher FlavinWorldwatch Institute

Reneivable EnergyThe Power to doose,

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IntroductionThq Power to Chooser s

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C elebrating a new spirit of global coexistence, the industrial

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nations in 1972 establishal an international research centerwhere the world's best shelars could gather to study human-ity's most pressing prob ems. This unique venture. in coopera;tive global forecasting ubbed the International Institute forApplied Systems Analysis (IIASA)opened its doors in asumptuous Viennese palace in 1974. Soon the Institutefocused its computer models on the subject of energy.

For four years an internitional teain of distinguished scien-tists and analysts studied, conferred, and wrote. Their work,

Energy in a Finite World, ,app.eared in seven languages in1981.1 It laid forth more comprehensively than ever before a

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Renewable Energy%

planetary energy futurethe future implicit in the conven-tional wisdom guiding many of the world's energy officials. InIIASA's view hunianity will use three to four times as muchenergy in the year 2030 as it did in 1975. Coal, oil shale, and

, niclear breeder reactors figure most centrally in this supply-' side extravaganza. Renewable energy resources do not.

The IiPASA researchers may have lost touch with reality intheir years of labor, for most of the important devell§pmentson the world energy, scene, in the decade since the 1973 oilembargo contradict th-study. The report largely ignores theRotential for energy conservation and fails to take into account

eir

rtant resource, env ironmental, and health limitations thatw make a fossil fuel- and nuclear-powered future more

t reatening than desirable. Moreover, the energy sources thatthe IIASA researchers expect to make the largest contributionhave failed tb grow as rapidly as projected, while the energysources they ignore have soared.2

The safer, more mddest energy future charted in t4bookreflects a very different perspective. Its starting poinr is theend-use approach to energy pioneered by Amory Lovins in themid-seventies, focusing firston the myriad needs for energyand then on meeting those needs economically.3 The role ofindiv idual factories, communities, and individuals is empha-sized, and the perspective is clearer since the actual motivationand constraints that determine energy trends are ,apparent.Another difference is that the focus.here is on the major energydevelopments of the last ten years, particularly those that couidaffect future directions the most. One is energy conservation.The other is renewable energy. P.

Energy conservation has been the lifelaciat in a decade-longstorm of energy problems. Conservation's short "lead times"and modest costs niake it the ideal response to sudden oil priceincreases. With few exceptions, industrial countries have in-creased energy efficiency by io percent\or more since the earlyseventies. Developing countries too havelegun to realize en-

16

Introduction: The Power to Choose . 3)

ergy conservation's immense potential In the halls of govern-ment and in industry boardrooms around the world, the centralrole of energy 'Conservation is now accepted

The past decade has also witnessed a quieter energy revolu-tion More than a dozen tenewable energy, sources have beenexiSlored, and many_ harnessed. Wood fuel and hydropowerhave been used for centuries and todq prov ide nearly one-fifthof the world's energy. Passive solar design, wind power, alcohol

. fuels, and geothermal energy also have been used in the past,but not on the large scale they soon will be. Such new technolo-gies as solar photovoltaic cells and solar ponds now appear tohave A huge, untapped potental. All of these energy sourceswill last indefinitely, and all except geothermal power are basedon sunlight% hich annually delivers to the earth more thanlo,oco times, as much energy as humanity uses.4

The progress of the last several years m.ars a coming of agefor renewable energy. Technical advances have brought wind

- machines and solar cells to the edge of the commercial marketfor electricity in some countries Over 3 million solar waterheaters have been sold in Jdpan ind 5 million wood stoves inthe United States. Government comn*ments have beendemonstrated by an ambitious alcohoPfuers program in Brazil,wind antl solar programs in California, and geothermal and

1. ? wood energy programs in the,Philippines. Dozens of cummuni-lies around the world have dev;eloped their own 'renewable

tvergy and conservation plans,, no longer relying exclusiv ely onthe programs of distant bureaucrats.

Equally important are the false starts and wrong turns nowon record. Some attempts to introduce solar cookers in devel-oping countries and solar concentrating systems for electricitygeneration in industrial countries, for instance, were oversoldand did not meet initial hopes But many of -the social andtechnical problems encounteted have been instructive, and fewof these mistakes will have to be repeated. In some cases the

4 technology simply needs to be introduced more carefully. In

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. 4 . ,Renewable Energy /-., . - t

others a/new approach or a new technology is needed.The aim of this book is to draw on the decade's experience

with renewable t nergy and critically assess its potential. Tenyears of trial and error have weeded out the less proMisingteclmologies, so the emphasis here is on the major sources ofrenewable energy with the most potential. Passive solar design),active solar collectors, solar photovoltaic cells, wood fuel, en-ergy from other plants and wastes, hydropower, windipoWer,and geothermal energy are covered at length, while such lim-itedor lirnitingoptiofis as wave power and solar satellitesare discussea briefly. Although obitacles still surround the useof these eight major sources, their collective potential is enor-mous.

Of course, no energy transition can runfold overnight.Switching ham wood fuel to coal during, the industrial revolu-tion took most countries a centu,1 or more, while severaldecades were needed to introduce óil and natural gas. The keyto a viable renewable energy-based future is th5t the wcifld findmeans to make the transition graduallyphasing in new fuelsbefore the old ones run out and simultaneously reshaping

econbmies and societies. The most encouraging aspect of theprogress made in the last decade is that it has cleared the wayfor gradual change. Energy conservation has provided breath-ing room while new technologies are developed that will allow. .a meshifig of renewable and conventional,energy sources dur-ing the decades of transition. Change will be continuous andthe challenws enormous, but this process of historic changeswill also prdvide Dpportunities for creativity and growth forgenerations ,to come.

One misconception that seems to spring up again and againis that energy sources must come in large packages. Early onsortie energy analysts did take solar energy to niean large arraysof collectors strung across the world's deserts "and connected bylong-distance power lines to cities and factoriessolar ,power

, based on the nuclear model. While the opposite view--that

18

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NIntroduction: The Power to Choose 5

renewable, energy meant an exclusively "soft,' decentralizedenergy pathalso found adherents in the seventies, a middleground is emerging' today Large and small, centralized anddecentralized energy technologies all appear to have theirplace Wind power can be harnessed by the megawatt at "windfarms" and Aso by small turbines that supply indiv idual homes.Solar power can be captured at large solar ponds on vacant landand by photovoltaic cells on rooftops. Renewable energy hasappeal for grow th-orientelikeconomists and safe-enerky advo-cates alike.5 .

Vifty years from now historians May well look back aLtheworld's heavy reliance on one fuel as an unhealthy anomalyborn of decades of low oil prices. In the future differences inclimite, natural resources, economic systems, 'and social out-look w ill determine whith energy sources will be used in whichregions Already Brazil is making alcohol fuels from sugar cane,and China is converting agriculturA wastp to fuel in commu-nity biogas digesters In Iceland geothermal energy ,is now themost popular means 'of heating homes, whereas in Canadafuelwood and passive solar design are providing a lar e shareof residential heat. The Onited States and lapan a e mean-while applying theiitechnical muscle tt3 a pro)Rising pac-agetechnologyphotovoltaics. Even within, nations energy sup-plies will vary by region. Some countries`will make use of fiveor six majof sources of energytrue energy security.

Of rcourse, 3s energy wpply patterni change so will econo-Nes and societies Industries will tend to locate near largerivers, geothermal deposits, and okher "lodes" of renewableenergy since the new fuels areless portable than oil. Newpatterns of erriVoyment, netv designs for cities, and 4 revital-iNd rural sector could all emerge with renewable energy devel-opMent Less welcome changes might include increased 'land-use Repures and ,shifts in the bapnce, of econipmic poweramonrregions. ,

For individuits and the environ\nent the changes would be '''t

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6 Renewable Energy

rejuvenating. Because "renewables" are less polluti.ng thancoal, people will breathe easier as energy systems change, as willcrops and forests. And renewable energy offers people wiho areinterested the chance to take more direct control over theirenergy supply. For others-,\r4ying on renewable energy will

simply involve flipping a swiia. As for housing, people will beable to choose between free-standing homes that harness theirown energy or energy-efficient district-heated apartments, Formany people in the Thirt1 World, renewablvenergy develop-niett will bring electric lights, running water, and space heat-ing for the first time.

Renewye energy is the power of choice. It works in a ruralor urban setting, in centralized or decentralized systems. ze-newable energy development is a gradual pr ss that unfOlds

with many small inVestments. A a tod does not fore-close another option tomorro Banking on renewable energyand energy-efficiency is fundamentally the most conservativeenergy course we can take. Risks are minimized: options pre-served.

risky cOurse is sticking mainly with coal and nuclearwer. The invest'ments needed to buy the new technologies

and the environmental controls they require are too big toallow investments in alternatives too. Mines, ports, railroads,and synthetic fuel plants will have to be abandoned when coalruns out or becomes too environmentally damaging to use ioheavily. To ensure that nuclear technologies do rV fall into thewrong', hands, governments will have to poliertheir use, cir-cu'mscribing civil liberties to do so. Environmental damagefrom coal and nuclear plants will eventually make some areasoff limits and pose serious threats to human health. Equallydisturbing, the imposing institutions needed to guidrthesemegasystems coCild become too entrenched to respond to thepublic's needs and desires.

Of course renavable energy will not flower on its own nomatter how powerful the logic behind its use. Important

Introduction: The Power to Choose 7

changes vv ill ha.ve to be in)plemented by national governments,communities, utilities, and businesses. And those whose in-come and profit is tied to existing energy sources will fight thechanges that the majority so needs. Yet the new golicie1 re-quired will not turn our world upside down. They nled be onlyimproved versions ,of the research programs, financial incen-tives, and community projects akeady afoot in many parts ofthe worlid "Renew ables" already enjoy broad-based grassrootssupport in many countries. And as more people seize the politi-cal power to choose, that popular base is growing.

In the long run, humanity has no choice but to rely onrenewable energy No matter how abundant they may seemtoda> eventually coal and uranium will run out. The choicebefore us is pQctical. We simply cannot afford to make morethan one energy transition Within the next generation. Wehave not money enough or time.

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Energy atthe Crossroads

For most,of the last decade, the world has been stranded atan energy crossroads. The shocks to the world economy causedbi the oil price increases of the seventies have set in motioncomplex reactions and adjustments that are still unfolding. In198o \alone, scores of national and corporate energy forecastswere torn up and discarded, their ten-year predictions renderedirrelevant by a year of real-world deyelopments. Since thenanalysts have again been caught flatfooted by the sudden slickthat developed in the world oil, market. Today confusion and

,hardship seem to typify the new energy era. The two globalrecessions triggered in part by the rise in oil prices have beena blow to near)y all countries, but especially to the poorest

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Energy at the Crossroads 9

nations that nOw find it difficult to meet their most basic needs.Rising oil prices, engineered in p.irt by the Organization of

Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), are a blessing as wellas a curse, however. Petroleum cannot support civilization in-definitely. The oil-price rises prepared people for the inevitableand set in motion the wheels of ,shange.

Energy progress achieved ,so far has come largely from en-ergy conservation. During the. last several years, the energysaved via millions of small efficiency improvements by busi-nesses and individual citizens has outstripped the impact of all

new sources of energy supply combined. Between 1919 and1982 energy use fell io percent or more and oil consumptionwas down .2o percent in many industrial nations, only partly

1 owing to the recession.1 In fact, without energy conservationthe oil "glut" of the early eighties would not exist. A sign ofhope, this trend toward effitiency opens up the possibility thatthe energy transition can be smooth and gradual. In contrast,if exponential growth in energy.demand were- to resume, thattransition would perforce be disruptive, even brutal.

More vexing questions about which energy sources the worldwill rely on remain clouded in uncertainty. Oil and natural gaswill play an important but diminishing role for some time, buthow long is lesithan clear. Coal will likely grow in importance,but how much we should burn considering the serious sideeffects of its use is a tough question. In the ongoing debate overnuclear power, economic, health, and safety uncertainties con-tinue to come to light. Answering these thorny questions, how-ever difficult, has become an obligation for ourselves and our

children.

The Oil Rollercoater

Oil is a remarkably versatile and valuable fuel. It contains moreenergy per volume than any other major fuel, and it is easy toextract and transport. What's more, petroleum refining is so

2:3

10 Renewable Energy

highly evolved that the same barrel of oil can power jet air-planes, light a peasant household, or serve as a feedstock inplastics production. Technological progress and inexpensive oilwent hand in hand in shaping industry, agriculture, ancl life-styles during the twentieth century.

As recently as 1950 oil supplied less than 30 percent of theworld's "commercial" energy. At that time industrial econo-mies relied heavily on coal,4which was the major fuel every-where except North America. Oil's rise came rapidly. Petro-leum extraction expanded by over 400 percent between 1950and 1973. (See Figure 2. 1.) Soon nations that had never psedoil before and possessed no domestic reserves were using it toruniheir industries and vehicles.,From the United States thepetroleum economy spread rapidly to Europe, Japan, and theSoviet bloc countries, abd later to the developing world. InJapan oil imports increased eightfold between 1960 and 1973,making the country briefly the largest oil importer in the world,dependent on the Middle East for half its energy.2

Altogether oil now supplies 44 percent of the world's com-,-4ercial energy and 38 percent of total energy (including bio-

mass), but even these numbers understate its impact on soci-eties.3 Industries built thousands of new plants that relied onoil and natural gas, and consumers began using oil and gas toheat and cook. The "car culture" took longer to spread outsidethe United States, but since 1970 the world automobile fleet(now consisting of over 300 million vehicles) has been the mostrapidly increasing oil consumer in many regions. Electricity usealso rose.dramatically during this period. In the past, electrifica-tion had been, based mainly on hydroelectric darns, but the 5to 10 percent annual growth rates of the sixties to a large extentreflected the contribution of new oil- and gas-fired plants. Hugeamounts of capital were sunk into equipment that could bepowered only by petroleum.

As reliance on oil continued ta rise in industrial countries,petroleum use in the Third World increased too. Yet even

24

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Exaloules

300

250


Nuclear Power

ra HydropowerCD Natural GasM Od1111 Coal

Source United Nations,World Energy Supplies

200

150

100

50

1950 1960\

Figure 2.1. World Commercial Energy Use by Source 1950-1980.

1970 1980

today the developing countries, which contain three-quartersof the world's population, consume just one-quarter of the oilused each year. Many developing countries use less than onebarrel of oil .per person annually, compared to over twentybarrels per persqn each year in some rich nations.4 Of course,what makes this comparison striking are the more than 2 bil-lion people who still rely mainly on such traditional fuels ascrop wastes and wood.

Oil long seemed the ideal fuel for development. Using itrequires relatively modest investments in transportation and

2 ::)

12 Renewable Energy

combustion facilities. Then too, unlike some traditional fuel'soil can be used with equal ease in cities or rural communities.Until the late seventies, virtually all development ptans werepredicated on the availability of cheap oil.

Today, sixty-seven developing nations rely on imported oil- to meet three-quarters of their comniercial energy needs. Most

face a fuelwood shortage as well.5 Modern housing, industry(especially cement, chemical, and pulp and paper producers),

4,- and transportation all rely heavily on petroleum. Even in poorrural areas, the oil era has left its mark. Kerosene is becomingan important lighting and cooking fuel, particularly where fuel-wood is scarce. Diesel-powerestgenerators and pumps have inthe last decade become a common sight in Third World vil-lages and farmsemblems of increased agricultural productiv-,ity and higher living standards.

For both industrial and developing Countries, cuirent oildependence is less important than the tremendous momentumtoward increased dependence that had built up by the time ofthe 1973 oil embargo. World oil consumption consistently rose6 or 7 percent annually, in good years and bad, and alternativesto oil were rarely even considered. By the early seventies eco-noinic growth and rising oil consumption appeared inextricablylinked.

The Arab oil embargo of 1973 and the Iranian revolution of1979 will enter the history books as watershed events thatbrought about some of the most important changes in thetwentieth century. As oil prices rose from $2 per barrel in theearly seventies to $12 per barrel in the mid-seventies to $35 peibarrel by the end of the decade, the initial impacts were eco-nomic. Inflation became a global epidemic, reaching an aver-age rate of ii percent in the Western industrial countries by1981. Inflation subsided in 1982, bul slow economic growthand soaring unemployment were other legacies of the new era.In Western Europe alone, over 16 million people or io percentof the labor force were without work in 1982, a particularly

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grim new record Few economists expect a return of the vi-brant economic growth that provided adequate jobs until theearly seventies.6 ,

Though they were not the only difficulty facing the world'seconomies in the se% enties, oil prices were nonetheless a criticalvariable. They turned good economic performances into medi-ocre ones and put marginal economies on the intensive carelist. Even at current prices and with continuing slack in themarket, the cost of oil will cause economic problems for yearsto come. As a 1980 report by the International Energy Agency;concluded, the oil upheavals of the seventies "signalled a fun-damental change iPthe ability of the industrialized nations tochart their :own economic destinies."7 .

For developing countries that need economic growth toalleviatt poverty, the situation is particularly bleak. Althoughthe oil requirements of Third World nations are small byindustrial world standards, oil vulnerability is even greater. Netoil imports 'n' off-importing developing countries doubled dur-ing the se ies, and the cost of those imports rose nearly fiftytimes, rea ng an estimated $47 billion in 1980. Today oilimports eat up more than a third of export earnings in mostdeveloping countries. As Costa Rica's economic minister ob-.served, "In 1970, one bag of coffee (Costallica's chief export]bought ioo barrels of oil, but today, one bag of coffee buys justthree barrels of oil." The oil-import bill in Turkey in 1980exceeded the country's total export earnings, and in Ban-gladesh, India, Sudan, and Tanzania, the figure 'was over 50percent.8

In much of the Third World industrialization has slowedand agricultural productivity is stagnatingproblems that thehigh price of oil greatly exacerbates. In many rural areas reliantprimarily on traditional biomass fuels, the end of cheap oilmeans that fuelwoocl will continue to be used up faster thanit can be replenishe.d and crop wastes will not be returned tothe undernourished soil. The tropical forests of developing

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14 Renewable Energy

countries shrink by 1.2 pekent annually (some io to 15 millionhectares or an area the size of Cuba each year), and fuelwoodshortages have become a mak* Third World energy problem 9Without doubt the need for a rapid energy transition is morecritical and the isSues raised more fundamental in developingcountries than in the richer nations,

Predicting the adequacy of oil suppiies is well nigh impossi-ble these days. Geological uncertainties, OPEC connivings,political instability, and the shifting responses of consumershave left oil analysts in disarray. One five-year forecast madein 1982 concluded that oil prices would be between $15 and$15o a barrel and ",the probability that fhe price could beanywhere in that range is about equal."9 With so many forcesat work on the world oil market, instability is bound to con-tinue, and this in itself presents a tremendous threat.

Global proven reservesnf oil now stand at approximately 65obillion barrels, and perhaps another 600 billion remain to bediscovered. Although together these supplies equal 2.5 timesthe amount of oil the world has used so far, they could be usedup rapidly if demand grows. Assessments of future oil-produc-tion' levels made in the seventies that were based on reservefigures and assumed escalating demand led to the conclusionthat production would peak in the early nineties at 50 percentabove current levels and thew fall precipitously.0

Geological estimates of:oil reserves have changed little Sindethe early seventies, but most other aspects of the oil prospecthave. 'Energy conservation combined' with a global recessionhas caused world cause to fall dramatically between 1979 and1982. Not since oil became the world's largest energy sourcehas there been a continuous tree-year decline. In-the majorindustrial countries oil demand 'appears unlikely to regain the1979 peak kvel in the foreseeable future. While this slack indemand will help relieve pressure on the world oil market,those developing countr)s that can afford to claim a moreequal share of the world s petroleum will provide a counter-

C.

28


force. Led by rapidly industrializing countries such as Braziland So Uth Korea and by oil exporters that still keep domesticoil prices low, such as Mexico and Nigeria, the Third Worldis likely to more than double its petroleum needs in the nexttwo decades, accounting for most of the additional pressure onthe oil `market.12

The outlook for oil supply is meanwhile domiriated by geo-logical considerations in countries that have limited reservesand by political uncertainties in the few oil expoiting countriesthat have ample resources. In the United States,,the world'sfirst.inajor oil producer, oil production in all areas but Alaskahas fallen 25 percent since,1970. Oil-price decontrol has brieflyslowed the decline, but the petroleum yield per foot of explor-atory well continues to fall. The United States, much ofEurope, and parts of the Soviet Union are dependent mainlyon over-the-hill oil fields.13

During the eighties oil production declines in the UnitedStates and a few other natious should be offset by small in-treaS'es in China, Mexico, and one or twp Middle Eaiterncountries Significant' global increases could stem only fromimprobable decisions by the major oil exporters, improbablepolitical stability in the Middle Eaq, and improbable turn-abouts in the findings of petroleum geologists. On the otherhand, one or two minor wars or national revolutions couldreduce world oil production considerably. On balance, worldoil production will probably never rise more than io percentabove the '1980 level of nearly 6o million barrels per day.14

Today the Western industrial countries and Japan cOnsumemore than 6o percent of the world's oil, but produce less thanone-quarter of the total. In fact, the resource base has shiftedto the developing world even more rapidly than these figuresindicate. Approximately10 percent of proveri oil reserves lie inthe Third World, three-quarters of that in the Middle East andNorth Africa. In contrast, the Soviet Union has io percent andNorth America and Western Europe combined have just 9

16 Renewable Energy

World Oil Production, Consumption,land Reseives, 1980

Region Production Consumption Proven Reserves*

(million barreLsper day) (billion barrels)

Middle East _I 8.2 r.6 362

Africa 6.o 1.5 55

Asia-Pacific' 4.9 io.8 40West Europe 2.5 13.9 23

Latin America- 5.6 4.6 70

. North America io.i 18.3 33

USSR & E Europe 12.4 10.9 66

Total** 59.7 61.6 649

*Figure for year end**Production and consumption totals differ due to different accounting methods

Source- Batic Petroleum Data Book, Oil and Gas Journal, and BP Stati;tical Review

percent of global oil reserves. (See Table 2. 1.)15 It is thesefiguresnot the absolute size of oil reservesthat will largely'determine the adequacy of world petroleum supplies. VVhetherthere is oil enough to continue production at current levels forfifty years matters little if just two or three countries controlit. Reliance on so extremely concentrated a resource is aninvitation to crisis. Although the current slack in the oil marketis well entrenched, it is far from pertanent. Unless the transi-tion away from oil dependence continues to gather momen-tum,onother oil disruption by the end of the decade is worthbetting on.

Natural Gas: A Temporary Buffer

One possible cushion against oil shortages is natUral gas, arelatively new and underexploited resource. As recently as1972, the United States used half of all the world's natural gasand only a few nations used it in significant amounts. Sincethen natural gas has been one of the fastest growing energy

30


sources. It now supplies 20 percent of the world's commercialenergy and 18 percent of its total energyabout half as muchas oil does.16

Most natural gas is found together with oil deposits. Untilirecently, it was often simply flaredburned for no p ToseIndeed, without pipelines and related facilities, thr reciousfuel is of little value. In many places where natural gas abounds,only a few industries or private consumers are in a position touse it.

Yet flaring will go by_the way as more people recognizenatural gas's value as a clean and efficient fuel and 8 a feed-stock for petrochemicals. Already some countries limit oil pro-duction to reduce the amount of gas being flared, and manycompanies have recently begun exploring for natural gas. An-other sign of the growing value of natural gas is its rising price.Once far cheaper than an equivalent amount of oil, gas nowcosts almost as much wherever a competitive energy marketexists.17,

It is easier to 5e optimistic about gas than about oil supplies.Many as yet untapped areas hold great promise. Deep reser-voirs as well as such unconventional sources as geopressuredaquifers, coal seams, and Devonian shale may all yield gasHuge, a sy-to-tap reserves in the Middle East and other oil-produ ng regions will be exploited as soon as the necessaryfacilities are built. In contrast to oil production, natural gasextraction is likely to rise 20 tO 30 percent during the next twodecades.18 ,

.... Unfortunately, the world's natural gas reserves are as une-qually distributed as its oil reserves. Most of the increase inoutput will occur in just four regionsMexico, the SovietUnion, the Middle East, and North Africa. A few other devel-oping nations have ample reserves, but most poor countries donot. Among industrial countries, natural gas is a severely lim-ited resource. Most U.S. reserves have been tapped, and theUnited States will be lucky to maintain current production

3

,l 18 . Renewable Energy

levels Tor the next decade. Western Europe will obtain largeamounts of natural gas from the North Sea during the eighties.But Europe's chief gas resource, which is in ,the Netherlands,will diminish steadily. On balance, natural gas will be a, majorenergy resource for just a few nations.19

For the world as a whole, however, even expanded naturalgas supplies do not spell energy salvation. Tile costs and safetyproblems of transpojting large quantities of liquefied naturalgas overseas cannot' be dismissed lightly, and geography willlimit pipeline exports of gas to such natural connections as thatbetween the Soviet Union and Western-Europe and betweenMexico and the United States.2° Put bluntly, natural gas is notoil's equal. It can never be widely traded on the world market.Nor can it be put to all the tasks oil performs. Although it isideal for heating homes and for use in the manufacture ofnitroge fertilizer; it cannot replace oil in the world's automo-bile fleets r in remote Third World villages. At best, naturalgas cin hel ushion us from oil shocks and help us buy timeto develop in igenous, sustainable energy sources.

King Coal

Eclipsed by oil since mid-century, dirty old coal is well on itsway to being king again, according to some energy analysts.World coal use is expanding by roughlY 3 percent yearly in theeaily eighties, after more sluggish growth in the sixties andseventies.21 In Australia, India, the United States, and othercoal-producing nations, huge investments are going into coalmines, transport facilities, and coal-fired power plants. Evenvirtually coal-less nations such as Japan and Sweden are gearingup to use large quantities of this resource.

Part of coal's appeal is its abundance. No other fossil fuel isso plentiful. Recoverable reserves are estimated-at 66o billionmetric tons, 270 times the amount extracted each year. Todaycoal supplies 27 percent of all commercial energy used and 24

3 2

V

I;


percent of total energy Almost certainly it will overtake oil asthe world's largest source of energy by the nineties.22

The most thoroughgoing evaluation of the-coal prospect isthe World Coal Study, a decidedly bullish assessment com-pleted by a team of cOal experts from sixteen countries in 1979Assessing likely demand for coal in various regions and thenprojecting supply aailability, the international team forecaststhat coal use will double or triple in the next two decades.(Over the last twenty years, coal use has increased only 40percent.) "In the industrialized countries coal can become theprincipal fuel for economic growth and the major replacementfor oil in many uses," the study concludes.23

The World Coal Study is far from the last word on the coaloutlook, howeer. It underestimates the potentially enormouseconomic constraints on the use of such large amounts of coal.Nor does it take proper account of the environmental andhealth consequences of using coal to replace oil, much less thewidespread public opposition to further increases in coal usethey could ignite. And it does not acknowledge fully that coalis at best a second-rate substitute for oil in many applications.Indeed, even if production triples, many nations will be hard-pressed to make coal serve their most essential energy needs.

Transportation figures centrally, in the economics of coalsince ten countries possess 92 percent of the world's reseivesand three nationsChina, the Soviet Union, and the UnitedStatesown 57 percent. (See TaBle 2. 2.) Today only 8 per-cent of he world's coal is exported. To triple world coal use,world trade in,steam coal (which is used for everything but steelproduction) would have to rise approximately twelvefold.24,That mount of shipping could raise coal's price significantly,since transpprting it requires large investments in port facili-ties, barges, railroads, and slurry pipelines.

Transportation is by no means the only big expense in thecoal business. Power plants and induStrial boilers require hugeinvestments. And if synthetic fuels facilities are eventually

3 ,J

20 Renewable Energy

Table 2. 2. Coal Reserves and Annual Production for MajorCoal-producing Countries, isr77

EconomicallyCountry recoverable reserves Production,

(billion . (Percent) (million metric (Percent)metric tons) tons per year)

United State; 167 25 560 23

Soviet Union 110 17 510 21

People's Rep. of China ost 15 373 15

Poland 6o 9 167 7United Kingdom 45 7 108 4'South Africa 43 7 73 3West Germany 34 5 120 5

Australia 33 5 76 3India 12 2 72 3

'Canada . - 4, <1 23 1

Other Countries 56 - 8 368 15

World 663 100 2,450 100

Source. World Cc;21 Study

built to transform coal into liquid and gaseous fuels, they willboost the cost of using this ene?gy source dramatically. Inisolation no single investment seems unmanageable. But added.together they make a doubling or tripling of coal productionstaggeringly expensive to producers and consumers alike.

The largest costs.of expanded coal use are health. and envi-ronmental. Increased coal use likely means more deaths amongminers,-more air polintiori,,more land degradation, and morecarbon dioxide build-up in the atmosphere. New technologyand addition& money can alleviate smile of these problems, butsuch expenses hurt coal's economic viability. Other problemssuch as carbon dioxidemay elude control altogether.

Mining coal i a deadly occupation. While major coal pro-ducers suCh as China and the Soviet Union do not publishstatistics, an estimated 15,000 to zcoo coal miners are killedan the job each year. The majority of hese deaths are in China,

3 4


India, and the Soviet Union, where most of the coal is ex-tracted manually rather than by large machines. Indeed,thoughChina ahd the United States produce roughly the sameamount of coal, between 3,500 and 5,000 Chinese miners arekilled yearly compared to 150 in the.U.S. Clearly mechanizingthe coal industry and adopting safe operating procedures makesa difference, but given the long governmental neglect of theseproblems and the high cost of mechanizing Third Worldmines, a major increase in Coal extraction is dikely to take aheavy toll in miners' lives.25

The localized health effects of coal burning are like miningcasualtiespreventable in theory but not always in practice.The,pollution controls now used in Western industrial coun-tries have made coal burning much cleaner than it was in theearly industrial period. In particular, pollution-control technol-ogy has removed the sooty particulate matter that once coveredmany cities. Yet large amourtts of sulfur and nitrogen oxidesand other pollutants are still emitted. In developing countries,where most coal is burned in small boilers, pollution-controltechnologies often cost too much to use at all.

Exactly how many people coal burning kills is difficult.to tell,but a convincing 1980 study found that doubling coal use inthe Ohio Valley (as the U.S. Government proposed to do tareduce oil use) would shorten lives of 45,000 people over afive-year period even if the $3.2 billion needed to meet pollu-tion-control standards is spent. Given that 5o,00o people al-ready die prematurely from coal pollution each year in iheupited States alone, the worldwide count is probably aroundUNE a million a year. 'Unless stringent and expensive controlsare widely imposed, increasing coal use would probablyshorten the lives of several million people in the next twodecades.26

The dimensions of another form of coal pollutionacid rainare just coming to light. Caused when sulfur and nitrogenoxides released from fossil fuel combustion combine with at-

36

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22 Renewable Energy

mospheric water, acid rain is of growing concern in such indus-trial regions as northern Europe and eastern North America.In these areas acid rain is destroying aquatic life and damaginghistoric buildings, monuments, and other manmade structures.Unlike mining deaths and local air pollution, the effects of acidrain are often experienced hundreds of miles from the pollutionsource, making regulation difficult and tension between border-ing states and nations likely. Exacerbated by the use of tallstacks to disperse local pollutants, the acid rain problem rein-forces the need for expensive *ollution-removal systems.27

Carbon dioxide emissions from coal burning ,inay prove a,more far-reaching and intractable pollution probtem. Since theIndustrial Revolution, the level of carbon dioxide in the atmo-sphere has increased by approximately 20 percentpartly as aresult of coal burning, which releases substantially more calbonper unit of available energy than oil and gas do. Scientistsestimate that tripling coal production by the century's endcould double carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphereby the year 2025. If, as many scientists suspect, carbon dioxideraccumulation causes the atmosphere to warm up, weather pat-terns could be altered, probably reducing rainfall in some agri-cultural areas. Ocean levels would rise as Antarctic ice melted.While technically possible, removing carbon dioxide fromstack emissions is prohibitively expensive.28

Carbon dioxide poses unique dilemmas. Conclusive evi-dence about its effects could well come only after the problemis beyond repair, and few politicians make careers of attackingthe next generation's problems. Moreover, given the globalscale of carbon dioxide pollution, unilateral efforts to halt itsrelease would have little effect. So great-are the complexitiessurrounding the carbon dioxide issue that some argue thateffective action is hnpossible and that we should begin plan-ning for the "warm up." They would be right if carbon dioxidebuildup were coal's only drawback. But it is not. The need for"a breather" so that scientists can continue to assess the magni-

36

".. Energy at the Crossroads 231 ,

tude of the carbon dioxide problem is only\me element of apowerful case for slowing the growth of coal use.

Coal's final drawback is its limited utility. Today fully 6opercent of the world's coal is used to generate electricity, andanother 23 percent (high-grade metallurgical coal) is Itsed forsteel production.29 Most of the remaining 17 percent is con-sumed for other industrial purposes. The contrast with oilcould scarcely be greater. The most common (and valuable)uses of oil are as a fuel in traqsportation and buildings and asa feedstock in petrochemical production.

Most likeli41the uses to which coal is put will not broadensignificantlyin the near future. The economic constraints aresimply too large, a point even the most bullish coal forecastersrecognize. The World Coal Study concludes that mosroff the

'huge increaSy it forecasts will be used in power plants. Coal'srole in industpy could increase substantially where coal is acces-sible, but the many small industries far from cbal mines or inareas that already have heavy air pollution will have to findothe alternatives. In residential and commercial buildings,coa has little place. It is simply too expensive to transport andto dirty to use.

Coal would hold more promise if it could be converted intoa liquid or gaseous fuel cheaply and effectively. But while coalchemistry has become sophisticated after more than a centuryof research, coal-conversion processes remain complex and in-herently energy inefficient. Cost estimates for synthetic fuelsplants have escalated as quickly as oil prices since the mid-seventies, extinguishing early optimism about "synfuels." Ac-cordingly, ambitious synthetic fuels programs in the UnitedStates and West Germany have been scaled back greatly. Bymost reckonings, synthetic fuels will play only a minor role bythe end of the century. The most economical synthetic fuelsare likely to be methane and methanol rather than the morecomplex hydrocarbons.3° -

For the foreseeable future, coal will be used mainly for

3 7t,

24 Renewable Eneigy

electricity generation. Already coal-fired power plants have asignificant economic edge over oil-fired and nuclear plants inareas where coal is abundant. But coal addresses onlya smallslice of the energy problem in most areas. Less than a third ofthe world's electricity is currently generated using petroleum,in such countries as France and the United States, substitutingcoal for oil completely in electricity generation would reduceoil imports by a mere io percent. Meanwhile, the growth ratein electricity demand has fallen off precipitously in much of theworld, making a mockery of extravagant forecasts for coal's usein power generation.

Nuclear Power; Too Bleak to Meter

Nuclear power has had a short and meteoric history. No othernew energy source has received as much government supportor stirred such controversy. Originally conceived as safe and"too cheap to meter," nuclear power enthralled scientists andthe general public alike during the postwar period. Severalgovernments, led by the United States and the Soviet Union,supported large nuclear research programs, and the technicalbreakthroughs of the fifties soon became the "commercial suc-cess" of the mid-sixties as governments persUaded utilities tobegin investing in nuclear power.31

During the sixties and seventies, utilities in Canada, France,Great Britain, Japan, t Soviet Union, and the United Statescommitted billions o iollars o this new technology. Thesenations were soon followei many other industrial countriesand a few developing countries. egioning in 1970 the numberof operating nuclear plants increased rapidly. By 41 some256 nuclear reactors in twenty-two countries were supplyingapproximately 8 percent of the world's electricity (2 percent oftotal energy supplies).32 Energy planners foresaw a rosy futurein which nuclear plants not only supplied most electricity butalso began to displace residential and industrial fuels. Literally

3 8

Energy it the Crossroads 25

thousands of ptants would be required to meet those goals, butnuclear experts from the Soviet Academy of Sciences and theU.S Atomic Energy Commission alike were genuinely confi-dent that their goals could be Met. Construdion, they argued,would become easier and costs would fall as the industry ac-quired experience. .

The prospects for atomic power began to dim almost as soonas the first large nuclear plants were completed. As a theoreticalprospect materialized into a concrete leality, important unan-swered questions related to public safety, long-term waste dis-posal, and weapons proliferation emerged. Political oppositionto nucicar power began to grow. By the mjd-seventies individ-ual,plants in Europe, Japan, and North America had becometargets of local public protest, and by the early eighties manygovernment officials and nuclear scientists had joined the grow-ing anti-nuclear movement.

Since the first days of civilian nuclear power, disposing ofspent nuclear waste has been a major concern. Twenty-fiveyears after the first commercial power plant began operation,it still is. Early hopes that nuclear wastes cquld be stored inextremely stable geological formations for millennia have beendashed by the realization that extensive tunneling and drillingdestabilize rock structures. And our ability tq predict the pathsof spbterranean water flows seems more questionable as welearn more about the earth's inner complexities. Nevertheless,some pronuclear countriesnotably France-4ave movedahead with retrievable storage systems that rely on the capacityof future,generations to monitor the materials effedively, re-pair the _containment vessels, and prevent their tbeft. Suchmeasures are obviously expensive, and their long-term effec-tiveness can never be guaranteed.33

Born of warfare and then transferred to civilian power pro:duction, the two uses of nuclear energy have never been se-curely separate. The early beliefcentral to commercial nu-clear power's acceptabilitythat civilian reactors and

26 Renewable Energy

bomb-making capabilities could be kept apart grows less plausi-Able each year. New technologies for making nuclear powervmore efficient are further eroding this thin line, and the Inter-national Atomic Energy Agency's proliferation safeguards sys-tem is generally recognized as too weak to prevent the diversionof nuclear materials from power pldnts to warheads. In thewake of India's surprise detonation of a bomb made frommaterials from a civilian reactor, several countries now appearto be developing nuclear bombs behind the façade of a "peace-ful" nuclear power program. While .a few additional nuclearweapons in a world with over 5o,00o warheads might seem asmall additional risk, the possibility that irreiponsible govern-ments may acquire nuclear materials makes nuclear power anextraordinarily dangerous way to generate dectricity.34

Meanwhile, some fundamental economic problems havealso begun to plague nuclear power. Irvin Bupp of the HarvardBusiness School observes that "the nuclear plants that werebeing sold in the mid-sixties on the promise of cheap powerwould not actually begin to operate until the early se-venties.But there was little or no effort by reactor manufactureii. bythe purchasers or by the government itself to distinguish factfrom fiction on a systematic basis."35 It turned out' that thekeoriginal cost estimates were low by a large margin, a fact tFatbecame painfully apparent as cost overruns acceleratedthroughout the seventies.

The most thorough economic study done so far is by CharlesKomanoff, a U.S. energy analyst. He found that in the UnitedStates between 1971 and 1978 real capital costs for nuclearplants (after accounting for inflation). rose 142 percent-13.5percent per year or nearly twice as fast as costs for coal plants.KoistRoff's analysis indicates that these increases were not,, astitellqnstry alleges, caused by licensing delays. Rather, costincreases reflect design changes needed to resolve importantsafety problems discovered as eirlier commercial plants began

40

Energy at the Crosisroads 27

to operate. Komanoff concludes that similar increases can beexpected in the eighties as we face still unresolved safety issues,including those raised by the accident at Three Mile Island. Asa result the simple economic viability of nuclear power is nowuncertain at best.36

A related obstacle confronting nuclear power is one that itshares with coalslowing growth n demand for electricity.Nuclear power is used virtuallttntirely for electricity genera-tion, andelectricity demand sluMps have been one of the majorreasons for power plant cancellations in recent years. In Franceit now appears that the country will have expensive excessnuclear capacity by the late nineties, a probkm the govern-ment could solve only by dramatically lowering electricityprices.37 Yet in France, as elsewhere, cost overruns 9n currentnuclear plants are partly to blame for electricity price increases.For the remainder of the century, coal and nuclear power willbe competing mainly against each other in a severely limitedelectricity market, and coal has a decided edge in most coun-tries.

The combined effects of cost overruns, slowing growth inelectricity demana, high interest rates, and widespread publicopposition are showing up in utility construction programs,particularly in the United States. Although most U.S. utilitiesstill outwardly express enthusiasm for nuclear power, many aresimUltaneously pulling the plug on the industry. From a peakof twenty to forty new plants per year.in the early seventies,new orders fell to an average of three per year between 1975and 1978 and then ceased entirely. Meanwhile, nuclear plantcancellations mounted steadily, reaching a total of fifty-eightfor the years 1977 through 1982, a figure that repreSents morethan the total installed nuclear capacity in the country in 1982.Once it was assumed that the United States would have300,000 to 500,00o megawatts of nuclear capacity by 1990with even faster growth in later years. More likely now, U.S.

41

28 Renewable Energy

nuclear capacity will be less than 120,000 megawatts in 1990,with little further growth in the nineties.38 .

Canada, Great Britain, Japan, and West Germany hivescaled back their nuclear programs, too. Rising costs are partof the reason, but even more important is mounting publicopposition to nuclear power. In Germany a de facto.morato-rium on new plant orders has been in place sincefr earlyseventies. And in Sweden, which gets fully 15 per&nt of itselectricity from nuclear plants today, a 1980 referendumbanned further orders for new plants and decreed that nuclearpower will be phased out by zolo. France is perhaps the onlyWestern country likely to rely heavily on, nuclear power in thecoming decades. France now gets over 40 percent of its elec-tricity from nuclear power, but French nuclear critics chargethat the country's program survives largely through taxpayersubs' ies.39

clear programs in Eastern Europe have follOwed a similarpathsurprising,'considering the differences in the politicalsystems of those countries. There, too, nuclear plant construc-tion has been more costly and slower than expected. AlthoughSoviet leaders continue to support the nuclear program, actualcapacity today is less than half the level forecast in the earlyseventies. During ,the early eighties, projections for 1990 weretrimmed by more than 40 percent.4°

In the Third World nuclear power has had a mixed Wel-come. -Today a handful of developing countries are .pperatingnuclear plants, and about a dozen more have nascent nuclearpower programs.4' For many'developing copntries, technologi-cally sophisticated nuclear power has important prestige value.In the.Third World nuclear power's financial problems, how-ever, appear intractable since huge capital investments areneeded.

Another problem that impedes nuclear plants in the ThirdWorld is their size. Even the smallest reactors marketed in

a

4 2


industrial countries are too large to be used in the electricitygrids of most developing nations. If a single power plant pro-vides too high a proportion of generating capacity, shutting itdown knocks out the entire system': Canada and France haveattempted "to get atound this diffiOulty by marketing "mini-reactors" in the Third World, but electricity from these "smallfry" costs much more than that from larger power plants.

Compelling evidence suggests that nuclear power will supplyjust 3 to 4 percent of the worId's energy during the closing yearsof this century. By logo the world will likely have about300,000 megawatts of nuclear capacity. (See Table 2. 3.)42 Theoutlook for the year is more uncertain, but growth ratesare likely to slow t.since many of the recent cancellationshave been for pl scheduled for completion in thenineties. Given cohtin cost overruns and the long leadtimes for nuclear plant construction, nuclear power cannotpossibly soon provide the massive coritributions to the worldenergy supply. that were envisioned a few years ago.

Table 2. 3. Estimated World Nuclear Power Capacity, 1981 andProjections to Year 2000

Region 1981 1990 2000

(t000 megawatts)

Western Europe & Japan 57 115 150 \North America 6o 120 130SoViet Union & Eastern Europe 16 50 75Developing Countries 3 18 25

Total 136 ,303 380

'Source U S Atomic Industrial Forum and the Financial Times Enere EconomistThe projections are the authors'

Soine optimists still cling to the hope that new nucleartechnblogies will one day resurrect this problem-plagued en-ergy source. In particular, many hopes have been pinned on the

4j.

30 Renewable Energy

breeder reactor. The attraction of the breeder reactorwhichis being developed in France, the Soviet Union, and theUnited Statesis that it would Produce more nuclear fuel thanit consnmed, unlike conventional reactors that consume pre-cious enriched uranium. Yet today uranium is plentiful and itscost is falling. More to the point, breeder technology is likely

,to come up against most of the economic problems that con-front light water reactors. On a commercial scale, breederplants would likely be extremely complex and expensive andwould raise safety and proliferation hazar4s. As commercialoperations increased, traffic in plutonium, a raw. material usedto manufacture nuclear bombs, would inevitably rise, greatlyincreasing the likelihood of nuclear war or terrorism.43

Even ignoring these formidable problems, the earliest sub-stantial energy contribution breeder reactors could make wouldcome in 2010. Meanwhile, breeder technology absorbs wellover a billion dollars of government research funds each year-:--funds that could be far more productively spent on otherenergy sources. _

Nuclear fusion is another technology under extensive re-search. To explore the attractive possibility of producing inex-pensive power by fusing isotopes of superabundant hydrogen,hundreds of millions of dollars are being spent. Some fusionenthusiasts speak of the technology with a messianic zeal, hav-ing transferred to it the old hope of unlimited and environmen-tally benign energy. But research efforts have yet to demon-strate even the technical feasibility of commercial fusionpower,and energy technology's history is strewn with theoreti-cally brilliant devices that never made the jump to economicviability. Fusion technology, in contrast to breedef reactors,does deserve continued government-backed research But forall its promisethis technology remains speculative, and thebets won't be called in until the year 2025 at the earliest:14Fusion therefore offers no answers to the most pressing energyproblems of the near future.

4 4

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The Conservation Revolution

The prospects for oil, natural gq, coal, and nuclear powerafford little optimism about our energy future. The inexpensiveand convenient energy sources are running out, while the abun-dant sources are dangerous or poorly matched with the world'senergy needs. The conventional "supply-side" approach to en-ergy planning appears increasingly uneconomic and antisocial.

But amid these disappointments, conservation is a shininglight. From tiny bungalows to steel mills, improved energyefficiency has been the most successful response to rising oilprices. Today saved energy costs less than energy producedfrom new sources almost everywhere, a development that hasbrought many economists up short. Truly a "conservation revo-lution," this radical departure from established trends provideshope for resolving the world's energy dileminas.

The most common way of gauging egergy conservation orenergy efficiency is to compare the rata4 growth of energy usewith that of national economies. After World War II the twotended to grow in parallel, and conventional wisdom held thatthey were inalterably linked. But since the early seventies eco-nomic growth has been three times as rapid as energy growthin the United States, and in Europe and Japan it has been twiceas high. By 1981 the economies of the Western industrialcountries were already 19 percent more energy efficient thanthey were in ic,175. Conservation's contribution to meetingadditional, energy needs during this period was several timesthe size of all new sources of supply combined. Between ic,79

and 1981 alone, oil use fell by 14 percent in the United States,15 percent in Japan, and 20 percent in West Germany, almosttwice the declines that occurred during the 1974-75 reces-

sion.45.Energy conservation is taking hold in various-forms virtually

everywhere. In Nairobi, Kenya, a major hotel cot its electricityuse for air conditioning in half during a four-year period. In

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1 "4

32 Renewable Energy

Japan most household appliances purchased today re 40 to 6opercent more efficient than Japanese appliances were in themid-seventies. The fuel used per passenger-mile in the U.S.airline industry has been cut by 30 percent. Many of theseimprovements stem froM modest technology improvementsand simple "housekeeping" measures. Yet a vast range ofslightly more complex and expensive innovations are nOvreco-nomical. As they are introduced, conservation's momentumwill build."

In major energy studies in Denmark, Sweden, the UnitedStates, and other nations, energy analysts have recently sur-veyed the potential for further energy conservation. By far themost comprehensive of these analyses was that completed bythe U.S. Solar Energy Research Institute in 1981. Accordingto the SERI report, even with rapid economic growth, energyuse could be cut by 25 percept by the year 2000. In fact, somany inviting opportunities for investing 'in energy efficiencywere identified that SERI concluded that lowering energy usewill actually improve economic prospects. The advent of lessenergy-intensive "service economies" will accentuate thesetrends.47

Already conservation has beconig a Sio-billion a year busi-ness in the United States.48 Similar though less dramatic re-sults have been obtained in other countries where energy wastewas lower at the _outset. In the industrial nations, a generalconsensus holds that growth in energy use will not exceed x to2 percent per year and that it could be even less if conservationis embraced wholeheartedly.

The conservation revolution has more than upset the projec-tions of economists, however. It has fundamentally changedthe context in which .energy systems operate. No longer canenergy be seen as a single commodity needed in predeterminedamounts. Today, with few inexpensiye energy alternativesavailable, the emphasis is on conserving energy wherever possi-ble and using whichever energy resources are most economic:al

4 6

, Energy at the Crossroads 33

in particular applications. As a result, energy 'growth will tendto be much more varied and "use-specific," a developmentwith important implications for renewable energy's future.

When supply availability alone guided energy assessments,new energy sources were compared primarily with oil or coalfor large-scale conversion to electricity. Since it was imaginedthat world energy demand would inevitably multiply and thatthe main choice was between thousands of nuclear reactors orhundreds of millions of solar collector systems, renewable en-ergy advocates were soon branded as unrealistic. But with thecurrent pressing need to conserve and to pay attention toend-uses, the competitiveness of renewable energy sources withconventional energy sources on a case-by-case basis has becomeall 'important.49

Many renewable energy technologies appear to fit currentenergy needs quite well. Most industrial countries, for instance,need small amounts of additional electricity generating capac-ity, most of it centered in a few rapidly growing regions. By thelate eighties and early nineties (when the new capacity isneeded), small-scale hydropower plants, wind turbines, andwood-fueled cogenerators will be Among the cheapest powersources available to meet that additional need. All can be builtquickly, and an additional unit or two can easily be added asdemand dictates. Similarly, households and industries that useenergy efficiently and carefully calculate their future needs arefinding that renewable energy technologies are on the verge ofcompetitiveness.

Just as energy conservation has revolutionized energy eco-nomics, so has it encouraged far-reaching changes in the geo-graphicalsnergy balance. In the past most energy growth oc-curred in% relatively small number of industrial countries. Inthe future a much larger share will occur,in the Third World.Although developing countries can Make substantial cost-effec-tive investments in energy efficiency, their need for new energysources is certain to grow more quickly than that same need will

4 /

34 Rene;able Energy

grow in the industrial world.' According to World Bank esti-mates, energy needs in the Third World will grow at 5 percentper year in the eighties (compared to 7 percent growth in theseventies). Developing countries simply cannot afford to meetmost of their growing needs with imported oil."

The case for renewable energy clearly rests on more than oilprice forecasts and the economic prognosis for coal. Moreimportant than either is a clearheaded assessment of the evolv-ing world energy situat. n and its underlying subtletiesex-actly what's missing f6m supply-oriented energy studies suchas the one conduc y the International Institute for APpliedSystems Analysis. Supply-side studies take an exajoule for anexajoule no matter whether the energy in question is for use inautomobiles or air conditioning, which now makes about asmuch sense.as saying that human beings can live exclusively oncarrots or anchovies as long as their need for calories is met.

Of course, supply-side studies cannot be dismissed lightly.aslong as tey continue to dominate energy policy making. Buttheir shortcomings underscore the need tO widen the energydebate to take account of the diverse uses of energy and thewider social and environmental imPlications of the course viechoose.

:;,-

3

Building with the Sun

To the surprise of many technologists, the oldest and simplestuse of solar energy is proying to be among the most successfulin the 198os. Just a decade ago, it Was commonly thought thatresidential solar heating had to mean the use of pump-driven"active" systems employing solar collectors. Yet today, passivesolar or climate-sensitive design is one of the most rapidlygrowing uses of solar energy despite a minimum of governmentsupport. The reason is simple: Passive solar buildings use rela-tively simple, inexpensive changes in design and constructiontechniques to maintain comfortable temperatures. Brcombin-ing design concepts that have been knoWn for centuries withmodern, building materials and technologies, builders are con-

36 Renewable Energy

structing houses that use 75 to 90 percent less fuel than con-ventional ones at only small additional cost.1

The principles being applied in climate-sensitive design arequite simple, since they are based on the idea of using'natural

, conditions to the best advantage. The designs are intended toadmit sunlight during the winter but keep it out in the suM-mer. InsulatioR and thermal mass are used to prevent rapidtemperature changes. Of course, the emphasis is on maximum"solar gain" in cold, sunny areas and on keeping the buildingcool in tropical regions. Because passive solar desigmiricorpo-rates both energy conservation and the use of renewable re-sources, it exemplifies the twin energy strategies with the mostpotential in the decades ahead.

Knowledgeable observers predict that the next decade willsee some of the most rapid and far-reaching architecturalchanges in history. As a pioneering solar architect noted in1989, "traditionally, architecture has been a response to thetimes, and energy conservation is the issue of our time." Passivesolar buildings are already catching on in many industrial coun-tries, particularly the United States where over 6o,000 havebeen built since the early seventies. So fat there is little activityin the Third Woild, but the long-run potential there is equallylarge. Buildings are a growing part .of the energy problem inmost countries, and improving designs today would greatlyenhance the comfort and economic aPpeal of the world's build-ings well into the next century.2

Energy and Architecture

In, this age of standardized buildings and mechanical heatingand cooling systems, it is easy to forget that passive solar designwas once the norm. In sonic partspf the world, 'it still is:Builtwithout the aid of architects or engineers, many traditionalbuildings make clever, use of sunlight and natu-ral convectionfor heating and cooling. Over 2,9o9 years ago Socrates ot--

50

--ft-Ne"Building with the Sun 57

served that "in houses that look toward the south, the sunpenetrates the portico in winter, while in summer the path ofthe sun is right over our heads and above Ihe roof so there isshade."3 This basic ideathat the sun describes a lower andmore southerly arc in winter than in summer (a more northerlyone in the so thern hemisphere)is applicable everywhere butnear .th ator. Two to three times more sunlight strikes asouth-f mg wall in winter than in summer, making it thelogical side for windows.

As Ken Butti and John Perlin point out in their history ofsolar architecture, A Golden Thread, the Greeks were amongthe earliest passive solar designers. Many of their buildingswere oriented to the south and had thick adobe or stone wallsthat kept Out the summer heat. Passive solar heating was alsoemployed by the Romans. By th,e fourth century A.D., thepressure of firewood scarcity had become a strong incentive forsolar heating, and Roman architects slowly adapted solar de-sign to the various conditions found throughout the RomanEmpire. Access to the sun was actually made a legal right undtrthe Justinian Code of Law adopted in the sixth century A.D.4

In other cultures other climate-sensitive building styleS pre-vailed. Most homes in ancient China were built on the northside of courtyards, facing sOuth, and sunlight was admittedthrough wood lattice windows and rice paper. Even today,millions of passive solar houses are found throughout nOrthernChina. The Anasazi people of the American Southw" est livedin mud or stone buildings constructed against overhangingcliffs that faced south. Solar-heated in the winter and shadedin the summer, these earth-sheltered dwellings were built with-out benefit of modern building materials or theories. In north-

, ern Spain many apartment buildings built in the nineteenthcentury have glass-enclosed south-lacing balconies called gal-erias that provide effective solar heatine.-5-4----

The world over, traditional architecture also incorporatessimple passive cooling techniques. Throughout tropical Asia

.,

38 Renewable Energy

and South America, open-sided pole and thatch buildings allowample ventilation and protection from the heat. Thatch, whichrivals fiberglass as an insulator, is also found atop mud andstraw buildings in sub-Saharan Africa. For thousands of yearsin Moslem Asia, cooling towers haveteen used to draw air intobuildings, providing ventilation and relief from the hot sum-mer climate.6

Since the onset of the Industrial Revolution and the urbanmigration that accompanied it, many traditional_architecturalforms have been. abandoned. Climate-sensitive building de-signs were not easily adapted to cities, and standardized ar-chitectural styles took over as the need for low-cost housinggrew. Architect Richard Stein writes that "during the 1920smany of the most prophetic and influential architects projectedthe form of the future as being freed from the rigorous de-mands of climate and orientation."7

This revolt 'against nature combined with growing popula-tions more than tripled the fuel requirements of buildingsworldwide between 1950 and 1980. New buildings use muchmore energy per square foot than those of the past since theyhave energy-intensive central heating.and air-conditioning sys-tems. Furthermore, only half the residential buildings inEurope, for instance, have any insulaiion at all, and stormwindows are a rarity. In the United States close to one-thirdof the residential housing stock is uninsulated, and another 50percent is underinsulated. The buildings in many countries,particularly the homes of the poor, are loosely constructed andleaky": Cracks around windows and in walls and attics let toomuch heat out and in.8.

Turning our backs on climate-sensitive design and constmc-tion techniques has proved costly. Consider the typical modernoffice building. With glass facades and mechanical "climate-control" systems in use every day of the year, its energy appe-tite is enormous. Commonly, a quarter of an acre of lights mustbe turned on to illuminate a few square feet surrounding a desk.

5 2

0 .

Building with the Sun 39

In private houses and apartments the rapid spread of air condi-tioning has upped energy use more than any other factor inrecent years. Together, residential and commercial buildingsaccount for between 20 and 40 percent of national energy usein. most industrial countries. (See Table 3. 1.) Of this energy,approximately four-fifths is used to heat, cool, and light build-ings and the rest runs water heaters and other appliances.9

Table 3. i. Energy Use in Residential and Commercial Sectors inSelected Industrial Countries, 1978

Counby

Residentialand commercial

energy use

(million barrels ofoil equivalent)

Share oftotal national

energy use

(percent)

Residentialand commercial

energy useper person

(barrels of oilequivalent)

United States 3256 33 148'Canada 338 33 14.3Sweden 96 38 .115Nethedands 154 11.0West Germany 581 39 9.5France 375 35 7.0United Kingdom 331 31 6 oItaly 235 30 4 1Japan 419 21 3.6

Source Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development,Energy Balancesof OECD Countries

Fuel use per person in homes and commercial buildings isnearly twice as high in the U.S. and Canada as in most ofEurope, European cities are laid out more compactly, andEuropeans prefer to keep their buildings relatively warmer insummer and 'cooler in winter. The industrial country with thebest record is Japan. There, per capita fuel use in buildings isonly one-quarter of the U.S. level, because most japanese build-ings are compact and few have central heating. Even in north-erly Sweden, the fuel requirements of buildings are 25 percent

5 3

40 Renewable Energy

lower than in North America. With traditionally higher fuelprices and lower per capita incomes, Europeans and Japanesetreated energy use in builiings less nonchalantly than didNorth Americans.

Few such generalizations hold with regard to the ThirdWorld. The developing nations located in the humid tropicshave traditionally relied entirely on the sun for heating and onnatural ventilation for cooling. In more temperate developingcountries in Central Asia and Latin America, firewood andcharcoal have been the heating fuels of choice: However, in thelast decade Western-style office and residential buildings havesprung up in the developing world's cities. flagrantly climate-insensitive, most of the new buildings require electricity-hun-gry mechanical cooling systems designed in the West. Sincemany developing countries lack both engineers and the spareparts needed to keep the systems running, the air conditioningsystems are often broken down and the buildings stifling hot.So far, 'the heating, cooling, and lighting of Imildings accountfor less than io percent of the energy used in most developingnations, but a major future challenge will 'be to improve themiserable housing conditions without compounding an alreadysevere energy problem.10

Awareness of the energy problems of buildings has, ofcourse, blossomed since 1973. Surveys indicate that energy hasbecome a priniary concern to most homebuyers, and residentialenergy-conservation measures are becoming popular the worldover. Newly energy-conscious Americans broughf the rate ofgrowth in energy use in the U.S. residential and commercialsectors down from 5 percent annually in the sixties to less than

2 percent in the late seventies and early eighties. Energy usein buildings is now increasing at only i percent annually inWest Germany, while it has leveled off in Great Britaip arid

fallen slightly in Sweden.nThe fuel savings so far achieved in, buildings must be kept

in perspective, however. They have been quite modest, deriv-

5 4


trig mainly from simple conservation improvements such as theaddition of insulation, and they come at a time when buildingowners and renters throughout the world are being hit hard byhigh fuel prices. Worse, these energy savings have not yethelped the poor much. lc 1979 the Tennessee Valley Author-ity reported that one of. its Customers paid her electric bill with

a Social Security checkand walked out to face, the month ofFebruary with less than $30," a situation that has become alltoo common in many parts Of the world.12 Even commercialbuilding ownersAre hard-pressed to make ends meet. Electric-ity bills now constitute the biggest operating expense in mostlarge structures, and they have helped boost rents at a recordpace.

Climate-Sensitive Design-

Fortunately, the options now available for lowering the fuelrequirements of buildings go well beyond simple conservationmeasures. The field of architecture Has been turned inside outin the last several years as everything from office towers tomobile homes has been redesigned for a new era According toR. Randall Vosbeck, pi!esident of the American Institute ofArchitects, "Energy will rank with the elevator and the ma-sonry arch as having a major influence on architecture. . . ."13

Behind modern 'passive solar heating are glass and plasticsThese substances readily transmit sunlight but iniPede thermalradiationin effect, trapping heat in the building. Known as.the "greenhouse effect," this phenomena.g.is familiar to any-one who has left a car in the sun on fail day and returnedto find it overheated'. In. its-Simplest form passive solar heatingconsists of placing most of a building's windows on its sunnyside because windows on the east and west tend to lose moreheat than they gain in winter and -because they can causeoverheating problems in the summer. Taking passive solar ,ar-chitecture one step farther, many architects now design build-

44,

42 Renewable Energy

ings that are elongated on an east-west axis' so that the areaavailable for "solar gain" on the sunny side is maximized.Properly siting a solar building is almost as important as thedesign itself since correct positioning helps assure ateess to thewinter sun and profection from cold windsi14

The first modern solar house was built in Chicago in thethirties. From the Outside, it looked conventional enough. Butit was carefully sited tcrtake full advantage of the sun, and ithad a large expanse of window on the south side. Similarexperimental buildings were constructed over the next two ,

decades, attracting considerable attention and corwincingsome onlookers that a new ,physical principle had been har-nessed. Business Week suggested in 1940 that the Chicago .

house rivaled the newly discovered Middle East oil reserves asthe "newest threat to domestic fuels."15

As solar architectural research proceeded it became clearthat retarding heat loss was as essential as admitting sunlight.The wails, roofs, and windows of conventional houses lose heatrapidly during cold weather through radiation and convectiOn.When heated only by 'the sun, such houses cool rapidly afterdark. In comparison, solar houses develo d more recently inEurope and North America have included more tha twice asmuch wall and attic insulation as conventional dwellings have.Most windows are doble- or triple-glazed, and the use ofvestibules prevents the .inss of warm air when someone opensa door. These buildings are also tightly constructedimpor-.

tant since in coiventional buildings up to half of all heat lossoccurs througlfdirect infiltration of cold air.

Also integi4 to the success of a passive solar building is heatstorage. Built of materials that hold heat well, a building canremain warm even after a day or two of cold, cloudy weather.Such traditional building materials as brick, concrete, adobe,and Stone all serve as "thermal mass," greatly reducing temper-ature fluctuations. Thermal storage materials are typically in-corporated in fireplaces, .walls, or floors, Though somewhat

5 6


difficult to use in a bililding,.water is one cif the best materialsfor storing warmtli. Sometimes used in "water walls," it canalso be used in fish-pond heat storage. Researchers at the NewAlchemy Institute in Massachusetts maintain that aquaculturetanks located inside a greenhouse can pay for themselves inheat-storing capacity alone.16" Besides providing heat during thcwinter, suceessful climate-sensitive buildings are also cool in summer. Fortunately, thesame high-grade insulation and thermal storage that retain heatin winter help keep a building cool in warm weather. Cooling-only passive features include shades thal protect south-facingwindows from the high summer sun and ventilation systemsthat keep air moving continuously through a building. Decidu-ous vegetation is ideal for protecting a house from the summersun only and can keep the "microdimate" several degrees.cooler than surrounding areas.

One of the more ingenious solar designs--the Trombe wallinvolves using a thermal-storage wall placed several centime-ters inside a large expanse of glass on a building's south side.The wall, usually constructed of Masonry, is Painted a darkcolor, to absorb heat from the sun during daylight hours. Thewall then radiates the collected heat to the rest of the housefor many hours after sundown. Extremely effective and versa-tile, the Troinbe wall has in recent years been used in every-thing from office buildings in the United States to peasant hutsin Ladakh, India. The Trombe wall and its variations have justone main drawback. Considerable heat is lost through radiationvia nearby glass. Special thermal shades that are closed at nightare needed. in cold climates.17

A related but distinct methoil of passive solar heating is theuse of a greenhouse or "sunspace" on ..building's south side.An attached greenhouse serves as a natural solar collector thatcan easily be closed off from the rest of the building at night,and it can extend the gardening season as well as provide heat.As with other passive solar systems, the importance of slouble

5 7/

44 Renewable Energy

or triple glass, tight construction, thermal mass, summer shad-ing, and ventilation is clear. \Veil-designed and properly sited,a greenhouse can supply more than halra building's heat insunny climates.

Some solar designers, particularly those in Israel and lteUnited States, are catching the sun by moving under groundwhich only seems like a contradiction. In earth-sheleredbuildings, earth serves as a natural insulator. If a building isexposed to inclement weather only on the sunny side, it caneffectively collect add store the sun's heat. Earth-topped roofsalso provide natural evaporative cooling in the summer, animportant advantage. Still unclear, though, is whether earth-sheltered buildings can be built cheaply and whether they canovercome their undeserved -reputation for gloominess. Right,now building under ground costs 25 to 50 percent more thanit does above ground, but some builders are convinced that thecost can be reduced substantially.18,

Other types of passive solar buildings are also springing up,the fond labors of enterprising architects. A house developedby Harold Hay in California uses an enclosed pool of water onthe, roof for heat colledion and radiative, cooling. Anotherinteresting concept, developed independently in Californiaand in Norway, is the double-envelope hOuse. It incorporatesa greenhouse On the south side and a continuous air, spacerunning through the roof, north wall, and basement to iupplyheated air throughout the building. Both- the roof pond designand the double-envelope house have fared well in the custom-built market, but their broad economic appeal remains to bedetermined.19 .

Some Canadians and northern Europeans are -taking quitea different, tack -in designing cliinate-sensitive buildings. Sincethe sun in these climates _makes Zinly lirief appearances at,

_midwinter, a solar house designed for sunny ,eonditions wouldbe a cold house in Canada or northern Europe. Architectithere are thuS designing superinsulated, very tightly con-

58

OW.


structed houses w ith relatively few windows. Typically, a "low-energy -house" features an air-to-air heat exchangera smallunit resembling an air conditioner that en tila tes the buildingbut presents heat loss. Its use keeps tHe air' from getting staleOF esen unhealthy. as pollutants like cigarette smoke or theradon found in concrete slowly accumulate. Pioneered primar-ily in Austria, Canada, Denmark, and Sweden, these prototypi-cal hdmes base performed impressively so far. The Saskatche,ivan Conservation House in Canada, for example, use.s goperCent less energy than does a welconstructed conventionalhome,"

Even more challenging is the development of passive solardesigns for climates where cooling is needed. Passive coolingresearch has been relatively neglected, thOugh Australia, Israel,and the United States base made promising gains. Evaporativecoolers have.prosed effective in hot, dry climates, and designsthat enhance air flow help greatly in most areas. Also essentialto corilfort in warm weather is insulation and a means ofshading building surfaces from the sun. Jeffrey Cook, professorof architecture at Arizona State University, notes that "of all,the cooling strategies, heat avoidance provides tile-most for the_least." In most climatgs.such measures Can reduce fuel reguire- -ments for cooling greatly.m

- Furtljer research in passive cooling will have to meet. thedifficult challenge of designing buildings for hot, humid cli-m.

-ates where evaporative coolers do not function well and

dehumidification is esse.ntial,for comfort. Japanese and Ameri-can researchers are working on passive dehumidifiers .usingdesiccants, but 'such efforts are preliminary at best.22,Activesolar air conditioners may turn out to be one answer to thissticky problem. Another is to lowrair conditioning needs asmuch as possible via careful design and use smaller, less expen-sise electric or gas-powered air conditioners on the muggiestdays.

Thecooling needs of the poor majority in the Third World

,

46 Renewable Energy

have received even less attention. Hundreds of millions nowlive in warm, humid climates without benefit or hope of getting

. air conditioning. In many developing countries past efforts toupgrade traditional, housing actually made the structures lesslivable. The tin roof that has spread throughout much ofAfrica, for instance, is inexpensive and long-lasting, but it is lesseffective than a thatch roof in combating heat buildup. Minordesign changes to encourage 'ventilation and the use oflocallyavailable insulating materials could greatly improve comfort.Furthermore, such changes could be implemented by thebuildings' owners, who in developing countries tend to domuch of their own construction..Additional work on this prob-lem is badly needed, preferably at the village level so that thetechniques developed make use of local resources and meetlocal needs.23 -.

One of the beauties of passive solar design is diversity. Al-though the basic principles are simple, they can be applied ina great number of ways. In solar architecture constant innova-tion is the rule. Darian Diachok, who in 1989 conducted aninternational solar architectural survey, notes: "Passive re-search is taking on a distinctly regional flavor. Individual coun-tries are now.making major strides in developing buildings thatare economical in their climates."24

While some architecture critics describe solar buildings asdull or gimmicky, the inherent limitations of solar design areless in question here than the creativity of architects and thepreferences of homebuyers. Whether a solar house is conven-tional or breathtaking depends on the designer. Some ar-chitects are already looking forward to a time when buildingsinclude solar features as matter-of-factly as buildings todayhave pltimbing and electric wiring. One day solar buildingsmay be as diverse as architecture itself.25

flexibility has become the watchword for designers inter-ested in cost-effective solar buildings. From a financial view-point, xelying exclusively on just one design principle is unlikely

-.


consistently to yield the "right, answer. Douglas Balcomb ofthe Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory, a leading expert in theperfirmance of passive solar systems, has found that a mix ofpassive solar and conservation methods usually represents thebest economic bet. Based on data from a house in Kansas,Balcomb's analysis suggests that a nearly equal investment inconservation and passive solar measures yields the lowest total,.t over a building's life.26'

An important aspect of this flexible approach to design isthat passive systems need not be loo percent passive. In manycases some form of auxiliary heating system makes sense. Justhow big the system needs to be depends on the climate andthe local fuel costs. And in many cases adding such "active"features as a fan that moves heated or cooled air to other partsof a building can make climate-sensitive buildings more effec-tive at only a small additional cost.27

Off the Drawing Board

The combined work of architects, builders, and engineers overthe last: decade has laid the foundation for a transition toclimate-sensitive, fuel-conserving buildings. The principles aresimple, the necessary materials readily available, and the build-ings cost-effective at today's prices. But the transition will begradual and complex all the same. A whole generatign of designand construction professionals needs to be educated. Solar andconservation designs must be integrated into mass-producedand low-coit buildings. And the commercial building industryneeds to shed its laggard's reputation.

Solar design is just beginning to enter the architecturalmainsteam. Until recently, heiting, cooling, and lighting werethe concerns of engineers, not architects. No more. Ith Europeand America today architectural plans for a custom-designedsolar or low-energy building are not much harder to come bythen fhose for a conventional one. A recent U.S. government

,

4

48 Renewable Energy

listing of solar, designers, included over .1,000 firms and in-dividuals, and the American Institute of Architects has en-thusiastically embraced climate-sensitive design. Architectureschools are also taking to solar architectuie. For the first timemany are 'teaching passive solar desigri.28

If solar buildings are ever to become widespread, they mustbe accepted by builders as well as architects. In the UnitedStates several hundred thousand builders, subcontractors, andsuppliers erect more than 1 million single-family homes, apart-ments, and commercial buildings each year. Most are "tract"homes built as part of large subUrban developments, and only

io percent are custom-designed by architects. These buildershave large investments at stake, and they are very sensitive tothe fears of the sizable number of people who until recently sawsolar buildings as unconventional and costly.P

In truth, most passive solar buildings are an' economic har-

gain. Consistently, finanCial analyses show that well-thought-

out passive solar features quickly pay for themselves in reducedfuel costs. After that, they in effect produce wealth for theoccupants, yielding a lower "life-cycle" cost than a conven-tional building would. The owners of climate-sensitive build-

ings are their most fervent boosters, making frequent refer-

ences to the fact that only a half a cord of wood or a coupleof nights of electric heat Was needed to weather a particularlyfrigid winter. The fuerbills of these buildings are usually ridicu-lously lowwitness the figures compiled for the SaskatchewanConservation House and Village House I, a passive solar homebuilt in New Mexico. (See Table 3. 00

A useful rule of thumb is that for a io percent higher initial

cost, climate-sensitive designs can reduce fuel bills by a full 8opercent.31 A south-facing window costs no more than one thatfaces north, and a concrete floor that can store heat costs aboutas much as a wooden one. Options such as using tivo-by-sixinch wall studs rather than two-by-fours to allow space for extra

'Building With the Sun 49

Table 3. 2. Annual Heating 4sts According to Different BuildingStandards*

Structure or standard Annual cost

(1980 dollars)

U.S. average house, 1978 68oU.S. building standards, 1978 360Sivedish building code, 1977 230 P

California building code, 1979 noSaskatchewan Conservation House 20Village House I, passive solar 15

4Assunies similarly sized houses using oil heat in a similar climate.

Source: A. H. Rosenfeld, Building Energy Use Compilation and Analysis.

insulation or employing triple-glazed windows or night shadesadd only Marginally to building costs. Other design possibilitiesextensive glazing, a Trombe wall, or a large amount of ther-mal storage materialcan be quite expensive. But most can besound investments nonetheless. In many cases the additionalcost of solar design features is offset by immediate savingsbecause large air conditioners or central heating systems arenot needed.

The day when only "chics or freaks" lived in passive solarhouses is now ending as builders warm to the new designs andfurther lower costs. In the United States 40 percent of buildersare now building at least some passive solar houses, a clearindication that the designs are entering the mainstream pf thehousing market. There were an estimated 6o,000 to 8o,000full-fledged passive solar houses up already in the U.S. in 1982,and i i percent of new housing starts incorporate some passivesolar features. All of this has occurred amidst a record-breakingslump in the construction industry, and a passive solar boommay occur as the recession ends. No other country ha's movedso quickly to change its building styles, although it appears that

6

50 Renewable Energy

several European countries may be following a_similar learningcurve. Passive solar homes are becoming popular in West Ger-many, while in Scandinavia low-energy houses are finding aplace in the coop-dominafed housing market. France is a fewyears behind, but since 1980 there has been an explosion ofinterest among architects there.32

An emerging frontier in passive solar architecture is incor-porating climate-sensitive features into apartments, offices, andother high-density urban developments. These presenruniquedesign problems: Their occupants and appliances often have alarger impact on the building's temperature than do outsideweather conditions, and lighting and cooling usually use moreenergy than does heating. Typically, both heating and coolingsystems in such b ildings are operating even while people out-doors are strollin in shift-sleeves in ideal Weather.33

Many architects are now developing appropriate solar de-igns for large b'uildings. "Passive daylighting," as engineerDouglas Bulleit notes, "is becoming the champion of passivedesign techniques." Another design challenge is integratingthe new passive solar features with buildings' mechanical sys-tems, which in most cases cannot be eliminated entirely. Ac-cording to architect George E. Way, a leader in this field, "wedesign to provide comfort and lighting in a passive way for atleast 50 percent [of the energy load] and then use the mechani-cal systems to handle only the extremes." Recently developedmicroelectronics-based control systenis are a big help Sincethey automatically adjust artificial lighting according to theavailability of natural light and enable heating and coolingsystems to take maximum advantage of both indoor and out-door weather conditions. The U.S. corporate giant IBM hastaken climate-sensitive design to heart and is building skyscrap-ers in several parts of the country that use half as mutenergyas conventional buildings do.34

Along with mammoth buildings, old buildings also presenta trying energy challenge. Only. i percent of most nations'

6 4

Building with the Sun 51 ,

buildings are torn down each year, and annual constructionaccounts on average for 2 to 3 percent of the building stock.35

So even if all the homes and commercial structures built be-tween now and the year 2000 were solar buildings, not quiteone-third of the total stock at the turn of the century wouldbe solar. Obviously something must be done with the buildingswe have. ,

Most of the impressive energy savings achieved in existing,buildings so far have come from simple conservation measuresrather than from "solarizing." Adding passive solar features toan existing house ig more complicated and expensive thanworking with a new structure, but passive solar "retrofits" domake sense in many situations. In the United States suchretrofits have become one of the most popular forms of homeimprovement. The most common passive solar retrofit is a solargreenhouse. Such greenhouses can be attached to ..the southside of a building witfiout replacing existing walls, thought itoften makes snse to vent the walls 4nd add a fan to circulatethe captured heat. Since a number of firms now market prefab-ricated solar greenhouses, it is possible to "solarize" a house fora few thousand dollars.36

Other types of passive retrofits are also wise buys in manynses. A Trombe wall can be created by glazing the outside of

a south-facing masonry wall. Adding clerestory windows to theroof to admit more sunlight is easy and effective under someonditions. Many older schools, factories, and warehouses inthe northeastern United States have uninsulated south-facingbrick walls that would make ideal Trombe walls. Another popu-lar low-cost strategy for existing buildings is the use of fan-driven, air-filled solar collectors mounted on the ground on abuilding's sunny side. Although not technically "passive,"these are very simple devices that usefully complement a cli-mate-sensitive design. In the cold, impoverished San Luis Val-ley in Colorado, hundreds have been built, bringing solar heat-ing to people with incomes below the poverty line.37

52 Renewable Energy

New Policies for New Buildings

Climate-sensitivesarchitecture has a strong foothold after justone decade's progress Most impractical designs have beenWeeded out, the economic promise of the better designs hasbeen proven, and homebuyers' and developers' interest is ris-ing. But economic, political, and institutional hurdles stand inthe way of a true architectural revolution. The world's buildingindustries, ever conservative, have been in recent years underconsiderable financial pressure too. More important, buildersdO not pay the fuel bills of the houses they construct, so unlessgovernments and potential buyers encourage them to buildsolar homes, the transition could be slow.

Until recently, governments have done little to help climate-sensitive architecture, and they have tended to favor activesolar technologies when allocating research funds br,providingtax incentives. In the United States some consumers choosemore expensive active solar systems rather than passive systemssimply to take advantage of, the tax breaks for solar collectors.While active systems clearly deserve market support, evengreater fuel savings would result if similar amounts of moneywere invested in promoting the use of passive solar design.

Some governments have taken the passive cause to heart,however. Canada, China, Denmark, France, the UnitedStates, and West Germany have started small but growingpassive solar research programs since the mid-seventies. Theyinclude a variety of research and demonstration projects. Butmore is needed. If climate-sensitive design is to take hold,governments will have to work with the building industryclearly the main vehicle of the solar transition. In some nationspassive solar design competitions have been used to spur theprivate sector's interest. In France a small village of solarhomesNandybuilt in 1981 as part of a design competitiontriggered interest among French architects and builders. In theUnited States the Solar Energy Research Institute gave funds

6


to Colorado developers to hire architects to design passive solarhomes to add to their list of models. Some excellent designscame of this program. So did a regional solar building boom.38

Educational programs for consumers, builders, real estateagents, and others are proving very successful at erasing someof the myths surrouriding passive solar buildings and so speed-ing their acceptance. This is an area where trade associations,community groups, and local governments probably have thelargest role to play. In the United States groups such" as the

ational Association 'of Home Builders and the gorne Im-uncil have quickly gone from being skeptics to

astically sponsoring the workshops ana newsletters thathave helped launch solar buildings.39

A complementary approach is to label the fuel requirementsof buildings for sale. Expected fuel use and price could benoted along with the likely life-cycle cost of the building.Buyers could thus compare the efficiency of different buildings.Already the fuel bills of solar homes are displayed during realestate transactions in some parts of the U.S., a practice thatlocal governments may want to require."

Financial incentives are probably most likely to send passivesolar building on its way. Many climate-sensitive design innova-tions require a slightly higher initial investment than that fora conventional building. No matter how cost-effective thesechanges ultimately are, builders who are under immense pres-sure these days to cut initial costs to bare bones levels tend toshy away. Both builders and owners can have trouble gettingloans to pay the extra costs, due to high interest rates and thefact that most bankers are still unfamiliar with climate-sensi-

.tive design.

Educating the financial community about the commonsense and cost-effectiveness of energy-saving buildings is onekey to solar architecture's future. To assess a homeowner'smortgage-paying ability, loan officers need to know that passivesolar buildings have negligible fuel bills so their owners have

Ir.,

6

54 Renewable Energy

more income available to repay a loan. The San Diego Savingsand Loan Association in California is one of several U.S. banksthat offer slightly reduced interest rates on passive solar houses.This program brings monthly payments below what they wouldbe for a conventional home, adding to the homeowner's savingsfrom reduced fuel costs. Similarly, the Hanover Insurance,Company in the United States has offered a io percent dis-count on homeowner insurance rates for passive solar homesin recognition of the fact that they are less prone to destructionby fire.41

Tax incentives also encourage energy-saving homes. In,much of Europe, Japan, and the United States, there are nowtax credits for solar collectors. Conservation improvements arealso eligible for tax credits in many nations. Unfortunately,passive solar design seldom qualifies taxpayers for these be-nefits. Because passive fe?tures also serve nonenergy functions,most governments do not allow individuals" to write-them offas energy investments.

To get aronnd this serious shortcomingwhich worksagainst some of the most cost-effective means of redueingbuildings' fuel needsmany U.S. states added to the tax codedetailed standards for determining what constitutes a fuel-saving measure. Another approach that is being considered bythe U.S. Congress is simply to give builders of climate-sensitivebuildings a tax break of np to $2,00o for each energy-efficientbuilding constructed, depending on the building's perform-ance.42 -

Luckily, government progrims to encourage climate-sensi-tive building need play only a limited, transitional role. Taiincentives and information packages that persuade builders totake climate-sensitive architecture seriously will become un-necessary as passive buildings soon start selling themselves. Itmay be that the entire package of government programsincluding financial incentives and demonstration 'projectscan be phased out after only a decade, the job completed.

66

Building lh the Sun 55

Building for the Puture

Worldwide, there are now over 100,000 passive solar buildings,over half of them in the U.S., and rapid growth is continuing.The U.S. Department of Energy's goal is to have a half millionclimate-sensitive buildings standing by 1986, and the NationalAssociation of Home Builders expects to see passive solar sys-tems in 30 percent Qf all new houses by the year 2000.43 Andeven these are arguably conservative figures. Based on currentgrowth rates, a reasonable worldwide target is to have io mil-lion passivc solar buildings in place by 1990 and between 50and too million by 2000. By the end of the century mostcourtries should aim to use energy saving designs in all newbuildings.

Unfortunately, measuring the precise energy contribution ofclimate-sensitive design is difficult. Since a solar building doesnot produce a fuel that can be measured by a _meter, it makesmore sense to calculate the amount or additional heating andcooling fuelzthat would have been used by a comparable con-ventional building. Yet conservation and solar technologies arefuSed so tightly in a good climate-sensitive building that solarcollection gains and conservation gains are hard to distinguish.

Even without the benefit of precise measures, it can beestimated that constructing new passive solar buildings willsave at least half of the fuel currently used to heat and coolsimilar structuies. if a Baltimore house's energy usels taken astheaverage, that means that to million solar buildings in 1990would in effect yield 0.7 exajoules of energy Of enough. to runall of the cars in Canada for over six months. Fity to toomillion passive solar buildings by the cen(ury's en would yield3.7 to 7.3 exajoules or 6 to 12 percent orthe ene currentlyused to heat, cool, and light the world's buildings. Together,climate-sensitive design for new buildings and conservationmeasures for existing structures should reduce the fuel needsof the woild's bUildings by 25 percent by the turn of the

6 d

,.

,

.

56 Renewable Energy

century, despite substantial growth in the housing stock.'"The potential of passive solar architecture is no longer in

doubt. Nor are the benefits of more rational design and COII-struction for people at all income levels and in all climates. Wecan learn something from the architecture of the ancients. Asone solar designer recently observed, "Our buildings would beMore beautiful if they responded,to energy concerns and had

,-a more natural configuration."'"

s,

70

,

4

Solar Collection

he idea of harnessing the sun's heat and light has for centu-.

ries inflamed the human imagination. Besides employing vari-ous passive solar architectural techniques, the aneient Creeks,Romans, and Chinese from the second century B.C. on experi-mented with- "burning rhirrors", that could Concentrate thesun's rays onto an object and make it burst into flames. TheCreeks nsed their knowledge Of- geometry to build sophis-ticated parabolic dish concentrators. To conserve scarce andeipensive firewood, tbe Romans heated their public baths byrunning water over sun-exposed black tiles. Yet burning mirrors

solar water heating largely remained objects of scientificcuriosityatfier than of widespread practical use.1

71-:

to.

58 Renewable Energy

The technology used today to harness the sun's heat owesmuch to the work of the eighteenth-century Swiss scientistNicholas de Saussure. Working with the ingeniously simplenotion that sunlight penetrating glass can be absorbed by ablack surface and trapped as heat, Saussure designed a varietyof heat-trapping boxesthe prototyPes for solar collectors thattoday heat water, warm buildings, and power machiiies.

Active solar technology leapt forward again in the nine-teenth century, when a French scientist, Augustin Mouchot,modifipd these simple collectoryo create solar cookers, stills,pumps, and steam engines. Bypplying his knowledge of glassheat-trap principles to burning mirror technologies, Mouchotachieved temperatures high enough to roast food, distill liq-uids, and boil water. Mouehot's solar steam-engMe included acliick mechanism that moved the_collectors to follow the sun's

-

course.3Despite the technical success cif these early solar technolo-

gies, the availability of cheaper and more reliable coal-firedequipment blocked their widespread use. As fossil fuels becamecheaper and more .abundant, furnaces _and industrial boilersgrew *more advanced. M a result solar-thermal devices re-mained experimental curiosities dUrAng the late nineteentliandearly twentieth ceskturies.

iDespite this general eclipse, the simple solar water fieatera collector box and a metal water storage tank painted blaCk

found a large following early in this century in parts of theUnited States, Australia, South Afri6a, and Argentina whereconventional fuels were scarce and expensive and sunlightabundant. In California several thousand such contraptionswere in use until the advent of cheap natural gas in th'e 1920S.In the 193os a solar industry bloomed in Florida. By 1941approximately-6o,000 solar hot water heaters--were used, inMiami, supplying more than half the city's population with hotwater. But the wartime freeze on civilian copper use crippledthe industry, which vanished coMpletelY when cheap, electric-._

Solar CollCction 59

ity generated using oil became available.4_In the meantime, another solar industry flourished in Israel.

in 1940 Ruth Yissarwife of scientist Lei Yissarpainted anold tank black and put it out in the sun to warm bath waterStruck by his wife's common sense, Yissar began deelopingsolar-heating technology. His company began manufacturingcollectors in 1953 and sold i600 units the first year. Between1953 and 1967 Israeli solar companies built and installed over6o,000 solar water heaters. Cut off early from cheap oil sup-plies, Israel built a solar industry that is,today a leading exporterof advanced solar heating equipment.5

Heating Water and Buildings'

The global increase in oll prices in 1973 set off a worldwideboom in solar heating..0yernight the economicS of solar energyuse were reolutiorii4ed. Today inomentUm is still gathering.In'Israel, Japan, and parts of thellnited States, high fossil fueland electricity prices, abundant sunlight, and strong govern-ment support aimed at reducing petroleum imports haveheated up the solar market. While most government attentionhas focused on research and development (R&D) programs forinnoatie solar technologies, simple systems based on proventechnology account for most of the growth in solar energy useIndeed, for all the talk about solar energy's rple in.the future,solar's present role rests on simple technology from the past

Almost all the solar collectors in use today are solar panelsthat heat water or buildings. The typical flat-plate collectorconsists of a rectangular box with wooden or metal sides, ablackened insulated bottom:a copper absorber plate, and acoer made of transparent glass or plastic. When operating,'water', some ofher fluid, or air circulates from the panel to atank, carrying the sun's heat to where it is needed Designsdiffer widely in terms of cost, efficiency, and durability. Forwstance, most systems built for usein extremely cold climates

7d

60 Renewable Enere

feature extra insulation and-some means of draining water fromthe pipes at night.6

Solar radiation's intermittentr,naturt presents difficulties forall solar energy systems. Since energy may be required whenthe sun is not shining, it is necessary either -to store heat fromsunny days or to use a conventional heater as a back-up. Whilestoring high-temperattre heat is costly and relatively ineffec-tive, this 'approach does make sense for water-heating. A well-insulated, somewhat larger-than-average water heateetank isusually all that is needed. To store larger quantities of heat;such technologies as underground tanks filled with heat-absorb-inklocks can be used, though not alwaYs economically.7

The consumer costs of using today's flat-pfate collectors aredetermined principally by the costs Of materials, labor, trans-portation, and installation. The materialsglass or plastic. forthe cover, aluminum, wood or steel for the frame, and copper*for the tubes and backingare widely available, and their costsare set in markets much largtr than that .for solar equipment.Labor typically accounts for more than half the cost of fabricat-ing collectors. Installation and transportation can easily doublethe cost to the consumer. Proper installationa key to solarequipment's efficient operationrequires skills akin to those inthe plumbing and heating business. Transporting bulky collec-tors costs so much that local manufacturers have an edge overdistant competitors, and do-it-yourself collector kits have founda market. (Unfortunately, though, collectors built from kits areless efficient and, less durable than factory-built collectors, fac-tors that offtet their initial economic appeal.)8

Although solar energy is free,, using it requireS investingrelatively large sums. Unlike cpnventional energy systems, mostof whose costs are spread out in fuel bills'pala over a period ofy ears, solar systems have high initial costs and minimal operat-ing expenses. Thus, meaningful economic comparisons'of solarand conventional systems must take into accOunt the totalcosts of both systems over time. Although making such "life-

Solar Collection 61

cycle- cost comparisons invOlves estimating future fuel costsand interest rates, it is the least biased way to judge ..solarsystems' economics. Still, when interest rates are high and.futuie fuel prices uncertain, consumers and industry pay lessattention to life-cycle costs and more 'to the payback periodthe time it takes fuel savings from a solar collector to pay forthe Cost of he collector. Most consumers insist On a paybacktime of less han five years with today's high interest rates.°

Another 4 terminarit of solar ecOnomics is the cost of alter-natives, pririjpally electricity and natural gas. Solar water heat-ers can compete with gas, electric, or oil water heaters nearlyeverywhere natural gas and electricity price controls are not inforce. Even where price controls are extensive, as they are inthe United States, solar water heaters can still compete inmany areas.1°

Overall, about go percent of all .,flat-plate collectors usedtOday heat water.. For perspective, home hot water use in theUnited States takes one-fifth as much energy as the entireautomobile fleetsome 4 percent of the nation's end-use en-ergy. In most developing countries less than 5 percent of resi-dential energy is used to heat water, but hot water use isgrowing rapidly. Depending on how hot and sunny the region,today's solar panels can heat between 30 and roo percent ofthe water a typical home, business, school, or hospital uses."

Although solar water beaters have a mud) firmer foothold inthe Market, the public tends to equate solar energy with activespace heating. Yet solar space heating systems are still plaguedby storage problems because air is typically used instead ofwater to transfer heat from the collector to the roOm wandbecause larger quantities of heat are involved. Many are alsotoo large to install in any but new buildings. A third drawbackis that their use entails maintenance, weAhering, and freezingproblems commensurate with their size.12 .

It is not only for these reasons that the market for' actiyespace heaters is much more limited ihan the market fbr hot

7

62 Renewable tnergy

water heaters Quite simply, the demand for spice heating isless widespread than that for hot water. In areas such as thesoutl;ern United States, Brazil, and southern Europe, spaceheattg is required only a few weeks a year so solar systems donot replke enough fuel to become economiCel. Even in north-ern areas with cold but cloudless winters, active solar heatingmay prow less economical then investments-in constriation,

.passiit solar design, or heat pimps since active systems may belob expensive to meet postconservation demand."

Themse of solar panels to heat water and buildings has grownmost rapidly in Israel, Japan, and Ca lifoinia. Common to allthree areas a,re a highly educated populace, high energy prices,and governmenf.support. On a per capita basis, Israel leads theworld in active solar heating-33 percent of all Israelihouseholds have solai:cater heaters, and active solar systemsnow meet 1 percent of all energy needs. By the mid-eighties,

,

some 6o percent of Israel's households are expected to havesolar-heatedwater--enough fo reduce national electricity con-sumption by 6 percent.14

Israel's success derives partly from the simplicity and inex-pensiveness of the technOlogy being used. Typically', the sys-tems cost $5oo and require only $25 worth of supplementalelectric heating per year. In cdmparison, a gas or electric water-heater costs about $175 initially and at least 51.2oa year to run.The combination of mass production and" simple design haskept costs low.

Second toIsraef in per capita use of active solar equipmentis Japan, truly the land of the rising sun. As of late 1982 some3.6 million houses, or i i percent of the total in Japan, wereusing solar systems, most for heating water. Japanese compa-nies are now manufacturing ovei half a million solar hot waterheaters a year, more than any other country. The Japanesegovernment expects 4.2 million buildings to be solar equippedby 1985 and 8 million by 199o."

In absolute terms, the United States leads the world in using

'76

`Solar ColleCtion - 63

-

active .solar energy syitems. Between 1974 and. 1980, annual'collecor prOdUction has increased tiihty firm (See Figure4. 1.) Yet a significant share of all U.S. collector saleA have been

AnnualProducer

Slur/rentstmrillons ofsquare feet)

20

15,

5

1974 1975 076 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981

Figure 4.1. U.S. Solar Collector Manufacturing, 2974-1981.

64 - Renewable Energy

low-temperature systems used to heat California's swimmingpools, so a more meaningful Measure of. solar activity may bethe increase in the number of solar collector manufacturersfrom a few.in 1973 to over 500- in 1980. U.S. solar activitycenters in California, where a sunny climate, high conventionalfuel prices, vigorous government support, and broad publicawareness have given rise to a $1 billion a year market.16

Solar technologies are developing a following elsewhere, too.In Europe France has the most aggressive solar program.Twenty thougand water heaters have been installed, and thegovernment's ambitious goal is to see half a million in use by1985. Throughout sunny southern Europe use is growing rap-.idly, and Greece expects to obtain 2 percent of its energy fromactive systems by 1985. In Australia loo,000 solar water heat-ers are in use mainly in western Australia.17

Among the developing countries, the most rapidly industri:alizing nations such as Brazil, India, and South Korea havedemonstrated the keenest interest in active solar technologies.All three intend to use, solar heating to cut down costly oilimports and to develop export industries. South Korea, forinstance, supports a solat energy research institute, and subsi-dizes with loins and housing bonds the construction of solarhomes and apartments. Over twenty, domestic firms, manyemploying technology licensed from firms in industrial coun-tries, have begun producing and marketing exports. Firms inBrazil and Mexico are ,also taking advantage of cheap labor topursue similar strategies with strong government backing.18

Solar Energy for Rural Development

Solar heat holds great promise for rural communities in theThird World. Scattered over relatively large areas, few ruralpopulations have access to electricity and fossil fuels at affOrd:'able prices. Then too, most rural energy needs are for loiv-temperature applications such as drying crops, cooking .food,

. 78

Solar Collection 65

and pupping waterprocesses well matched with solar en-ergy.

Some simple, easy-to-use technologies could substitute forfirewood in much of the Third World. A wide variety of smallfocusing collectors has been used successfully over the lastcentury to cook food, while the solar "hot-box" or ovenaninsulated box oven with a transparent window on the sideexposed to the sunhas been developed more recently. Inbright sunlight solar cookers rival an open fire for heat, andsolar ovens can keep food warm for hours. Although ultraeffi-cient collapsible reflector units and elaborate high-temperatureovens have been developed, simple and effective collectorsmade of polished metal can be produced for between $10 and

$30 each) 9cli,Despite th e advantages, solar cookers are not the cook's

choice. They do ot work When the sun is not shining, and thecook must stand 'n the heat when it is. A small solar cookerindustry in India in the fifties and a four-year project to intro-duce cookers in three Mexican villages during the early seven-ties both failed because villagers did, not take to the unfamiliar

technology. One overriding cultural factormealtime?,,,severely its the prospects for solar cookers in many areas,

and no e ort can succeed fully without the involvement of thewomeR largely responsible for food preparation Still, a recenteffort by a Danish church group to intrpduce cookers intoUpper Voltan villages did Work because the villagers helpedadapt the cookers to local needs and conditions And China hasnot given up on the cooker. More thau io,000 units are report-edly used there.2°

Of all the direct uses of the sun's heat, crap drying is prob-ably the most ancient and Widespread. Throughout the devel-oping world, farmers still spread crops on the ground or hangthem on open-air racks to dry. According to the U N. Food andAgriculture Organization, 225 million tons of food is dried inthis traditional way. But open-air drying does exPose food to

66 Renewable Energy

dirt, animals, insects, molds, and bad weather,all of whichresult in significant crop losses. Thus, reducing postharvestfood loss through the use of closed-cover dryers has become a

critical part of the efforts of many Third World countries tofeed their growing populations.21

Partly because the gas and electrical dryers widely used indeveloped-country agriculture are becoming less economic asfuel costs rise, probably 'no active solar application for ruraldevelop.ment is receiving more attention than solar drying.Many types of solar crop dryers are being tried, most withsuccess. Simple rice dryers work in Thailand, while more com-plex grain dryers have been used effectively in Saskatchewan.BUt problems remain. Particularly in closed systems designedfor use in colder climates, dust buildup is one. Volume posesanother Because space for collectors is limited, solar dryers areseldom as cost-effective for drying large volumes of grain incentralized facilities.22

Yet solar dryers are appropriate for on-farm drying: Finetuning the technology for this purpose, the Brace ResearchInstitute of Canada has built corn dryers in Barbados, fishdryers in Senegal, and lumber dryers in Guatemala. The keyhere is the full cooperation of agricultural extension services indisseminatirig information about solardryers.23

Solar technology could also help meet critical needs for freshwater Indeed, an inexpensive method of removing the.saltfrom saline water would find almost unlimited application inagriculture and industry in arid regions, mainly because thecost of heat plays such a decisive role in shaping the economicviability of distillation. Among die simplest and easiest tO con-struct solar technologies, solar stills have black bottoms toevaporate saline water and glass tops to admit the sun andollececondensing fresh water. With slight modifications, the

glass or plastic covers of this simple basin-type still can doubleas a rain-collection system. As early as 1872, a 4,000-square-meter solar still was built in Chile's Los Salinas desert to pro-

Solar CollectiOn 67

vide fresh water for mules. Unfortunately, solar stills wouldhave to cover vast areas to inovide the quantities of fresh Alterindustry and agriculture need. In Algeria's dry clime it wouldtake one square kilometer of solar stills to produce enough freshwater to irrigate three square kilometers of cropland.24

Solar stills do, however, hold considerable potential in iso-lated rural communities. Where less than 50,00x.) gallons ofwater per day is required, they are the cheapest source ofdistilled fresh drinking water. On islands, where fuel costs arehigh and fresh water supplies are limited, they are idealt SeveralCaribbean, Pacific, and Aegean islands, currently employ solarstills to provide drinking water. The most extensive solar stillusage is in the dry central Asian regions of the Soviet Unionand tire interior of Australia where livestock are watered fromsolar stills.25

Since solar stills are easily fabricated by low-skilled laborusing lncally available materials, their use is particularly appro-priate in Third World villages. Yet, efforts to adapt solar stilltechnology for use in such villages has met with Mixed resultsto date. In Source Phillipe, a small deforested island off Haiti'scoast, community support and voluntary labor made a project'work, but in several Indian villages projects failed becausethe villagers had grown accustomed tO drinking the brack-ish unhealthy water. Even with community support, outsidefinancing is typically neededone reason that several aidgroups are exploring the use of chiap plastic substitutes forglass. 26

Solar .water heaters also have a place in rural development.Few-spoor villages now have the hot water needed to make ruralhealth clinics and schools sanitary, much less to put to use incommunal showers and lavatories. Still, simple systems madeof inexpensive local materials have proven economically andtechnologically appropriate in many developing countries. InPeru some simple solar water heaters sell for about $12.50 each,while thirty Chinese factories turned out 50,000 square meters

8

68 ' Renewable Energy

gf solar collectors during 1980, mostly for use in hospitals,apartment complexes, and sbhools.27Active solar systems can also pump water for irrigation andhousehold use. In many rural areas irrigation pumps are princi-pal users of electricity. In California the state. water-supplyagency consumes more electricity than apy other user. And inrural India 87 percent of the electricity consumed is used inwater pumps. Increasingly, hopes for raising food productionin poor countries hinge on the greater use of pumped irriga-

jn.28

Since the need for ivater pumping is typically greatest wherenlight is abundant, solar water pumps seem a logical choice.deed, successful solar thermal pumping systems have been

built using concentrators foriarge pumps (25 to 150 kw), whileflat-plate collectors work for smaller units (1,to 25 kw). In solarinimps collector-heated water is used to turn an' easy-to-boilliquid such as freon , into a gas, whose expansion drivespumps.29 .

For twenty years the leader in developing solappoweredirrigation systems has been SOFRETES. This French com-pany has installed more than thirty-six water-pumping irriga-tion systems iri Africa, and Mexico, and it has, also begun todevelop solar electric pumping machines. In the United Statesthe world's largest solar-powered irrigation systema 56-horse-power pump capable of delivering up to io,000. gallons ofirrigation water per minutewas built in Arizona in 1977.Several other large systems using trough conCentrators arebeing bulk in Israel and the Soviet Union."

Although solar pumps hold promise based on operating ex-perience, the overall outlook is not encouraging. They are lessefficient than diesel engines, and few are economical. (Capitalcosts range greatly, from $6,000 to $78,000, depending onsize.) Even where 'fssil fuels are unavailable, solar thermalpumps compete economically only with photovoltaic systems,whose price is falling steadily."

82

Solar Colleclion

An Evolving TechnologY

69

Even as current solar technologies catch on, researchers theworld over are making solar collectormore N ersatile by improv-

ing perfortnance and lowering costs. The use of, neW glasses andplastics, in partictilar, looks toinprove the economics of usingconventional solar designs. So too, the development of suchnew solar design conceptsas concentrating collectors, evacu-ated tubes, Fresnel lenses, and solar air conditioners is makingit possible to use solar energy to meet the rapidly growingdemand for industrial process heat and cooling buildings.Bewildering in its maltiplicity, all solar research does hee at

. lead one common aimlowering the delivered cost of solarnergy by impeoving performance, u`sing cheaper. materials, ornerging storage and collection systems.32

he most N Bible engineering trend is replacing solar collec-tors' corrosion-prone, expensiv metal parts with plastics.Lightweight plastic ost less t ransport, install, and support.They do not conduct e J, but they can be configured tocompensate for that drawback, and although plastics are madefrom fossil fuels, plastics production requires less energy thando mining and refining metals. The major challenge in plasticswork is extending longevity since plastics degrade faster' insunlight than metals,do.33

Another materials ihnoN ation, the use of plasti: thin,filin oncollector surfaces, may revolutionize solar heatink technology.The new "solar sandwich" collector being devejoped at Brook-hav,en National LaboratOries features layers of highly heat-absorbent plastic films suspended by lightweight steel. Withinstalled costs of. $5 per square foot and manufacturing costsas low as $ i per square foot, these ,films offer strength, durabil-ity, good performance, and short paybacks. Experiments,showthey may also be able to endure the high temperatures industryuses.34

The use of "super-glazing"a, type of glasscould also

70 Renewable Energy-

speed solar evolution. A U.S. company, Covting Class Works,developed a process that minimizes' the internalfieat loss ofregular glass, and the Solar Energy Research Institute is testingthis glass in solar colleciks. SERI's hunch is that this glass mayworkhetter in solar collectors and be easier to handle than glassiiriginally designed for windows.35

Entirely new collector designs are also emerging. Of the lot,evacuated tube collectors come closest to widespread commer-cial application. Resembling 'fluorescent lightbulbs, the 'tubesconsist of a blackened air-filled glass cylinder enclosed withinan outer protective cylinder from which the air has beenremoved. A ,*vacuum insulates perfectly, so the high winds andcold weather that reduce flat-plate collector performance donot affect the tubes. ,Because air is used a4 the heat-transfermedium, freezing is not a problem either. Evacuated tubes canalso deliver Ilea at higher temperatures than flat-plate collec-tors can. Indeed, attaining temperatures of 82*C or, above(i 16.*C -with refiectOrs), they can be used in a broad range ofresidential and industrial applications. They are also lightweight, versatile (of use in space heating, water heating, andcooling), and easy to mass produce iri highly automated facto-ries.36

Evacuated tubes are, however, fragile ancl 'easily broken.Expert opinion on the prospects for this technolO6 is harplydivided between promoters and those who question whetherthe tubes' higfi price and breakage problems underent their

. advantages. Private companies like Philips Electronics of theNetherlands, General Electric in the United States, ;anyo

lectric in Japan, have done the most work to develop evacu-a. tube collectors.

In industry, ;which uses roughly one-third of the energyconsuMed in' industrial countries, new solar tschnology will beused increasingly. However, that use will bf constrained byindustry's need for high temperatures, since the cost-effective-ness of solar heating decreases as the temperature increases.

Solai Collection 71

Vb ile very high temperatures can be obtained. when largeexpanses of mirrors reflect sunlight to a small receiver, thesmaller and simpler Ion- and medium-temperature systemsare

ior now more cost effective. In the United States 27 percentof industrial heat use .is below 287°C, a temperatuie that canbe met with commercially available solar systems.37

Solar technologies for achieving the spectrum of tempertr-tures needed by industry are here or on the way. For heatingwater and for low-temperature drying, flat-plate collectorsusing,air or water are appropriate, linear concentyator collec-tors can best provide low- and medium-temperatuie industrial'process heat Parabolic troughs that track sunlight rxd focus iton a black liquid flowing through a long, narrow pipe or tubeare being marketed by several dozen firms.38

The technology of concentrating collectors is evolving rap-idly Films that preserve reflectiveness, thinner more durable

*reflectors, more efficient heat-transfer systems, and cheaperhacking mechanismsall are at the foreftont of concentrat-ing:collector design. Research is also focused on suladgituting'plastics and reflective foils for costly metals and on lowering theweight of concentrating collectors so smallm cheaper motorscan be used to track the sun. Now handmade, concentratingcollectois will also grow cheaper When mass produced. Recog-nizing that tlie market will belong to the- company that `firStculls enough sales to justify the investment in automation,several governments (most notably France, Japan, and Israel).are heavily subsidizing the concentrating:collector industry.39

An entirely new type of.concentrating collector made ofcheap plasticthe Fresnel lensoffers high efficiency at a

modest price. Transparent grooved s 'lkets of plastic that bendlight rays much as pris-ms do, Fresnel nses can concentratesunlight by as mucll as fifty times. AI ekperimental Fresnelleps his achieved temperatures of 55cfC, and plastic sheets .

costing only $3 to $4 a square meter have, attained tempera-tures in excess of 3oo°C. With farm uses in mind461-5'.-9epart-

i

C.

72 , fRepewable &logy .

ment of Agriculture scientists projett a two- to ten-year pay-

back period for these lenses.40Reaching the still higher temperatures needed to smelt

metal and produce superheated steam requires using "Solar

central receiyers" that can concentrate onto a small spot thesunlight falling on several acres. Temperatures to 750.c.can be obtained with such receiving towers, which concentratethe sunlight reflected off hundreds of flat miirors. Although

this technology has npL..been pursued with_ industrial users inmind, a recent study ound it to be economical in the smeltingindustry at present piergy prices. Looking at the giarkt Hidalgo

.copper smelter in lc°, a New York engineering and

architectural fir. fo d that a multi-million dollar solar systemcovering a square mile of .desert could displace almost a halfmillion barrels of oil annually and pay for itself in less than two

years.4'To date, the research on solar power towers has emphasized

electricity production. The largest power tower, with a io-megawatt capacity, stands in the Mojave Desert in southernCalifornia near the town of Barstow. This plant, knnwn as"Solar One," relies on 1,818 flat sun-tracking m.i rrors, each 430

square feet in size, to concentrate sunlight on a central receiver

atop a, 300-foot tower. The Barstow power tower has l:;een

repeatedly criticized by. U.S. solar euergy. advocates Who ques-

tion the economic feasibility of the technology and who object

to the project's dominance of the federal government's solarresearch budget. While the bOne mIkes little sense, the tboth for utilities and industriCalifornia utility is seeking bidsacre, loo-megawatt power to

In dustry, solar energy pearly a d rapid growth in f

ry priority granted Solarhnology'will have applicationin desert regions. A southernor the construction of a 2,000-

42

the best prospects foressing. Two-thirds of the

heating needs of this industry ar or heat under ioec, and

ood processing now takes io to 15 percent of all industrial

A

4

- Solar Collection 73

energy. Under a U.S. Department of Energy experimentalprogram, solar technology is being employed for such diversetasks as frying potatoes in Oregon, washing soup cans in Cali-fornia, processing sugar in Hawaii, and drying soybeans inAlabama. So far, such experiments have been expensive buttechnically sound.'"

Solar energy also has a place in the oil industry. As nowpracticed, enhanced oil recovery involves injecting steam intowells to loosen highly viscous oil, In California, the world'sleading producer of heavy oil, it takes one barrel of oil to heatenouglyteam to extract three additional barrels. Althoughoil-fired systems are currently cheaper than solar cbncentrators,rising oil prices and pollution from burning heavyunrefined oilin highly polluted areas are making solar energy increasinglycompetitive. When oil-producing countries are forced to turnto enhanced oil recovery to extract petroleum from their old

or low-quality fields, solar, collectors could be extensively em-

ployed.'"For all its merits, putting solar heating technology to work

in industry has turned up problems. Government-funded in-dustrial process heat projects, for instance, never achieved ex-pected efficiencies. Among other things, dust builds up onconcentrators used near polluting factories and pipes freezeand burst in cold weather. The uneven output of solar systems

can also pose problems in factories that depend on a steadysource of heat. A final difficulty is that of retrofitting somefactories. While none of these problems iS insurmountable,businesspeople are not likely to invest heavily in solar technolo-

gies until reliable cost and performance data accumulate. Howlong solar heating systems will last in real-world'operating con-ditions is another unknown.45

As for solar air conditioning, it holds particular promise for.displacing the fast-growing use of electricity. Use of the sun'sheat for cooling is particularly appealing because demand forair conditioning is highest where sunlight is most almindant

6

74 Renewable Energy

Need matches supply, and storage and backup systems are lesscritical because periods without sunshiwiequire much less airconditioning. Already, several distinctly different types of ac-tive solar air conditioners are commercially avilable. One: de-sign Marketed by a U.S firm, Zeopower, makes use of a water-absorbing material called zeolite, ta provide cooling during theday and warmth at night A factory capable of manufacturingi oo,000 units a year is being built in Texas, and the1fiim hopesimits selling for $12,009 to $20,000 apiece will caiituie 1 per-cent of the y.s, market by 1985. An entirely different designi's already being marketed by Yazaki of Japan and Arcla ii1 theUnited States.46 .

- Solar air conditioners are large, technically complicated, andexpensive, but so too are the conventional systems solar units'must compete against. If these systems can gain commercialacceptance, an enormous market awaits them. Worldwide, airconditioning accounts for a large and rapidly growing share ofelectricity use. In the United States air conditioning uses 20percent ,of all energy expended to heat and cool buildings, Insome tropical developing countries, air conditioning uses morethan half the electricity produced.47 ,

t

Sun on the Waters: Solar Ponds and Ocean ThermalEnergy,Conversion

Two extremely simple technoldgies, salt gradient ponds andocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC), rdy, upon abundantand cheap salt' water to economically collect and store heatfrom the sun Little more than elaborate plumbing systems,these technologies convert relatively small differences in watertemperature into useable energy. Although they convert only

..

:

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tiny percentages of the water's heat, the low coSt of the collec- 4

tors and storage media make these systems economically com-parable, if not superior, to metal or plastic-based solar collec-'tors Because solar ponds have low conversion efficiencies,

,

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Solar Collectioo 75

sunlight must be collected oer large areas to obtain appreci-able quantities of energy. However, this is not a significantconstraint to the use of either technology since the.preferredlocalestropical oceans and desert salt flatsare abundant

Salt gradient ponds, or solar ponds as they are known forshort, work by trapping solar heat in very salty waters at thelower le els of shallow ponds. Since salty water is heaier thanfresh water, the heated water fails to rise and evaporate In-sulated from heat loss into the air by the water above it, solarpond water can reach the boiling point, and its energy is availa:ble throughout the coldest winters. Because the basic materialsof such salt-gradient pondswater, salt, earthen walls, andplastic liningare so cheap and widely available, solar pondscould be used almost anywhere."

Solar ponds are being successfully employed in several coun-tries to generate electricity, desalinate water, and provide heat.'Israel has one solar pond that produces 150 kilowatts of elec-tricity, and a pond several times that size is being built on theDead Sea's shores. If this larger model proves as cost-effectiveas expected, Israel plans to build 2,000 megawatts of pondcapacity, enough to meet zo percent of national energy de-mand by the year zoo°. To convert hot water into electricity,the Israelis employ Rankine engines containing Freon, whichbolls at 50.c. Another experimental project, on the Salton Seain arid Southern.California, will produce 5 megawatts If thispilot plant works as planned, a 600-megawatt plant- largeenough to provide power for a city of 350,000 may be built.A 2,090-square-meter pontl in Alice Springs, Australia, is suc-cessfully supplying heat and electricity to a restaurant, vine-yard, and winery complex."

Most solar pond development is being pursued in very sunnyregions with natural salt lakes. But an experimental salt-gradi-ent p6nd is heating a municipal swimming pool and a recrea-tional building in Miamisburg, Ohio, for about as much as itwould cost to b.ly the rtecessary heating oil. At Hampshire

76 Renewable Energy

College in the United States, researchers have laid out a de-tailed plan to show how Northampton, Massachusetts, a townof 30,000, could economically meet all of its space- and water-heating needs from commu6itY'solar ponds connected to build-ings by underground pipes. Distributing heat from solar. pondsto whole neighborhoods in this way appears to cost no morethan using dispersed, household-sized solar water heaters andConsiderably less than using active solar space heaters simblybecause the storage and the collection systems are one in thesame.50

Few insurmountable barriers stand in the way of the large-scale use of solar ponds. Desert salt lakes have virtually no otherdevelopment value, and land requirements are reasonable: Saltponds can be used everywhere except densely populated centercities (Northampton, for example, could meet all its needs byturning just 1.8 percent of its land area into solar ponds.) Aslong as liners are used to prevent salt water intrusion into landor water _tables, solar ponds are alselenvironmentally benign.Surprisingly, the solar ponds being built at the Salton Sea willactually reduce the salt build-up now threatening fish life."'

The sun's energy can also be tapped Gom natural bodies Ofsalt water by a teclinology known as ocean thermal energyconversion (OTEC). The earth's oceans absorb vast amountsof sunlight, most of which is radiated back into the atmosphereor dissipated as currents. Yet a small fraCtion of this heatinabsolute terms, several times total human energy usecan beharnessed in areas of 'the ocean where the temperature differ-ence betiveen warm wate j. and cooler water 1,000 meters belowis at least 18°C.52

OTEC 'Plants operate like a coinmon household refrigerator,only in reverse. kleat from the warm surface water first evapo-rates a woiking fluid, usually ammonia. The ammonia vapordrives a turbine attached ,to an electric generator and is thencondensed by cold water brought up from the deep sea. Virtu-ally affthe ocean area within the tropics has a sufficient temper-

9 u

Solar Collection 77

attire gradient to tap With OTEC. Altogether some sixty-twocountries, most of them Third World nations, have national orterritorial waters capable of supporting an OTEC plant. Ob-taining significant quantities of energy from OTEC plants will,however, be a herculean undertaking. A 230-megawatt .plantWould use a pipe 30 meters in diameter through which wouldflow a volume of water comparable to the Mississippi River.53

Although OTEC is simple in principle, several basic prob-lems cast doubt on the practicality of the technology. Corro-sion of pipes from salt water, growth of algae and barnacles onheat exchangers, and tropical storms all pose major, as yetunsolved, engineering hurdles. Aluminum pipes that last nomore than fifteen years in salt water could be replaced withtitanium, but at prohibitive cost. Colonizing set organismsmust be scraped off heat exchangers of experimental OTECplants once a week, imposing potentially significant mainte-nance costs The tropical seas with the highest thermal gradVents are periodically swept by devastating, hurricanes and ty-phoons generating hundred-mile-per-hour winds andthirty-foot waves The first OTEC system was sunk by a hurri-cane off Cuba in 1922, setting the technology back a halfcentury So great are the engineering challengei to stabilizinga thousand-meter pipe in rough seas that several experts believethat QTEC will be feasible only where the pipes can be se-curely fastened to sloping ocean floors."

Despite these obsta les, OTEC has strong supporters. Apanel of OTECexpertsjassembled in 1981 for the UN Confer-ence on New and Ren able Sources of Energy estimated thatio,000 megawatts of OTEC capacity would be built by theyear 2000, a projection not likely to be realized. The principalOTEC researchers, Japan and the United States, have bothspent more. than $100 million on OTEC research. The firstU.S. OTEC unit, built on a barge off the island of Hawaii, wasruined in 1981 when its piping was torn away by strong oceancurrents Japan has assisted the Pacific island nation of Nauru

78 Renewable Energy

in building a ioo-kilowatt facilitY firmly anchored on the sea-bed. One result of this project is to dramatically alter thesurrounding aquatic environment by bringing the nutrient-richsubsurface water to the clear nutrient-starved surface waters.The resulting luxuriant plant and fish life is seen by environ-mentalists as a 'serious disruption of coral reef ecosystems butby OTEC advocates as a major side-benefit to energy produc-tion. Indeed, elaborate designs for giant open-ocean OTECplants envision using the energy to protess and refrigerate fishthat are caught in the area.55'

Because solar ponds and OTEC plants are such inefficientenergy converters and require such large areas, extensive reli-ance on them could alter weather and perhaps climate pat-terns. Extensive networks of solar ponds would probably raisethe ambient temperatures of desert regions, with diffieult toenvision effects on precipitation patterns and wildlife. By,alter-ing ocean currents and surface temperatures, large-scaleOTEC use could, affect tropical storms and fisheries in waysthat are not easy to project. However, given the major engi-neering challenges still ahead, it will be many years before*,those large-scale enyironmental constraints come into play Inthe meantime they should be carefully assessed.56

Barriers and Incentives

To realize solar energy's promise fully, many governments havebegun providing incentives and reducing the barriers to solar'energy use. Most visibly, R&D funding has multiplied *over thelast decade. In the United States spending paised the $400milliOn mark in 1980 but has since declined to less than $200million. French spending increased from $12 million in 1975to $63 million in 1978a 400 percent increase in just threeyears. Several large R&D centerslunded by the International

'Energy Agency have been set up in ,Spain, which is rapidlyemerging as the hub of solar development in Europe. Japan

9

Solar Collection 79

and the So%iet Uniontulso have extensive R&D programs underway Other countries have specialized in particular technolo-gies. Israel in solar ponds, France in high-temperature concen-trators, and Australia and Mexico in solar distillation.57

Yet spending is still .too meager to compensate for pastneglect, to match go% ernment research on conventional fuels,or to exploit the most _promising technological leads. Manyimportant4applicationsindustrial , process .heat, solar ponds,and advanced materials researCh among themdeserve vastlyexpanded financial support. In the countries with mixed econo-mies, where most R&D is occurring, government programsmust be carefully tailored to augment rather than duplicate ordisplace corporate activiry. Although governments have moreresources and more incentive to fund long-term projects withdistant payoffs than private corporations do, they are relativelyless attuned to what will be commercially viable. Where gov-ernments hold the patents to all inventions growing out ofpublicly supported research, inventions reach the marketplaceslowly at best. The' interruption of government-sponsoredR&D prOjects in midstream for political reasons also causesproblems.58

Another pitfall' of government R&D programs is the tend-ency for agency officials to award research grants to large estab-lished firms instead of new, potentially innovative small firms.Such untoward caution clearly retards technical innovation.The pattern is particularly visible in the United States, where8o percent of government solar R&D funding has been chan-neled to large firms. Yet smaller firms tend to be much moreinnovative and to create more new employment.59

Balancing near- and long-term applications is another prob-lem with po simple solution. Too many government scientistsand corporate researchers have tended to pursue technologicalperfection as an end in itself, focusing on long-term high-technology applications of more intellectual than practical in-terest. This approach might be advisable if the private sector

,.

Renewable Energy .

were perfecting and refining current technologies at the smiletime. But the energy crisis made the overemphasis on king-ip

term R&D only too plain.60Apart from research, development, and demonstration pro-

grams, several national governments have also sponsored suchconsuMer-financing initiatives as tax breaks and direct gthnts.In the United States a tax credit enacted in 1978 and eXpandedin 1980 offsets as much as 40 percent of the cost of buying andinstalling a solar system. Almost every U.S. state offers somesort of solar tax incentive, ranging from sales and property tax

,exemptions to a 55 percent credit deducted from the stateincome tax in California. France and Spain took the U.S.approach in 1C)81, while Japan provides direct cash grantscovering one-half the cost of purchasing and installing solarheaters."

.

The second approach to accelerating the use of active solarsystems is direct regulation, which works remarkably well whenimplemented by a local government mindful of local condi-tiOns and needs. Sjnce. two years ago when Israetbegan requir-ing all new residential structures of Jess than ten stories" toinstall solar hot water heaters, 250,003 solar water heaters havebeen installed. San Diego, California, ilas alsO required all newbuildings to install solar water heaters if they would otherwise

$ make usoe of, natural gas or electricity. Still, the ..simplicity,economics, and popular support that underpin the market suc-cess of soiar hot water heaters cannot be exaggerated, sandfe-deral government attempts to require the use of other solar

fr technologies could well backfire.62 .

Greater use of solar energy in industry means overcoming adifferent set of barriers. Even where solar equipment can com-pete economically with conventional energy sources, iridustryis likely to consider other claims on its investment capital asmore important and less risky. Researchers at the HarvardBusiness Sihool contend that manufacluring firms require amuch higher threshold of profitability for investments that do

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1

Solar Colketion 81

not directly relate to their product than for those that do.Where annual rates of return of io to zo percent are enoughto trigger investments in the company's product line, rates ofreturn approaching 30 percent are needed to get firms to investin money-saving energy tonservation and solar collectors. Un-like oil; gas, or electricity (which do not entail an initial capitalinvestment by an industrial firm), solar equipment must bepurchased directly by the companyan added risk.63'

The key to overcoming this barrier may be in a new type ofsdlar marketing strategy based ort leasing solar systems or sell-ing their output. An Israeli firm, LUZ International, Ltd., hasset up subsidiaries .that have negotiated several twenty-year,multimillion dollar contracts with textile manufacturers inGeorgia and North Carolina tor steam produced from highlyefficient solar collectors. LUZ must make sure .the collectorsare operated and maintained properly, and the textile compa-nies do not have to tie up their capital in unfamiliar technolo-gies. Solar leasing is being pioneered by a small Southern Cali-fornia firm, PEI, Inc. Under the conditions of the first signedcontract, fifty-two PEI-installed, owned, and maintained col-lectors will enable a laundromat p save $165,000 in energyover seven year's. Widely used in the information-processingand office machine industries, leasing offers customers the ad-vantages of solar 'heating without a large capital commitmentor-the risk of obsolescence.64 -

A second.critical but artificial constraint to the greater indus-trial use of solar energy is tax policies that continue to favorconventional fnels. Since the costs of heating fuel are tax de-ductible for commercial businesses and industries while the"fuel" for solar systems is not because it is free, muci, of theeconomic incentive to use solr energy is negated by the taxsystem. Either a deduction for the,amount of Veing savedby using solar energy or the abolition of the business deductionfor fossil fuels would eliminate this bias,65

The widespread use of solar energy systems will also pro-4

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82 Renewable Energy

foundly affect the ele utility industry. AS providers ofbackup power for solar-equip d buildings on sunless dayi andas disseminators of solar equipment, utilities will play new rolesin the energy economyones that will affect both the eco-nomic viability of solar systems and the rates all electricity userspay. Although solar systems will reduce both total demand andpeak demand on a typical day, on a rainy day in a peak-demandseason every backup systeni may have to draw on the grid atonce. Since law requires utility companies to maintain power-generating capability to meet any reasonably expected de-mand, the widespread use of solar equipment with electricbackup s);stems could leave utilities with expensive excess idlecapacity.

In Western Australia, where 15 percent of all householdshave solar water heaters, 4 percent of the winter peak can beattributed to solar hot water boosters. One study of U.S. utilitycustomers with solar heaters found that the typical user of solarheat had a load factor 40 to 50 percent lower than thit of aconventional customer. Since servicing a solar-heated.homecosts the utilities as miich as servicing a conventional home,this means that current electric rates do not cover the costs ofserving solar homes. In Colorado one utility has unsuccessfullyattempted to impose a $40 a month surcharge on customerswho have solar hot water heaters.66

Rather than charging solar equipment owners special rates,,utilities should charge all users of peak electricity equally highrates that reflect the added costi the system incurs as a resultof their demand. As experience with "time of day" pricing inWest Germany sliows, demand peaks can be shaved if uiershave an incentive to curb power use at certain tinks. In caseswhere backup power for solar water heaters increases peakdemand,,simply installing extra storage capacity usually makesmore economic sense than foregoing the use of solar equip-ment.67

Utilities may also find it smart to finance, install, and main-

Solar Collection 83

tam Solar heating systems for cdttomers. Because utilities havea highly developed service network and longstanding relations?vith all energy users, they are in an ideal position to bringabout a rapid growth in solar collector use. Several innovativeutility programs to finance solar water heaters are currentlyunder way in the United States. In the Solar Memphis Project,the Tennessee Valley Authority is loaning consumers $2,000at 3 percent interesi rates for Nmit 'years. The consumer paysa set monthly fee to the utility and e utility arranges theinstllation certification, and mainteliance of the system.Sonie ro,000 water heaters wilt be installed under thisscheme.68`

An even more ambitious utility solar-financing scheme waslaunched in California in 1979 when the state's Public UtilitiesCommission ordered the state's four largest private utilities toprovide cash rebates and low-interest loans to customers whopurchase solar equipment. Under this plan, utilities will makefinancial incentives worth $182 million available for the pur-chae of an estimated 375,090 solar water heaters. Accordingto PUC-calctlations, this expenditure will save the utilities$615 million in power plant construction costs; fvr a nq,sav-iligs o0433 million. California consumers will be spared the

, high initial expense of buying a solar water heater.69Many solar energy advocates oppose involvement in

solar energy. The fear is that utilities will reduce competitionin the solar industry, drive rip costs to the consumer, or attemptto give solar energy a bad name. In truth, the attitude of theU.S. electric utility industry toward solar energy has been unen-thusiastic. While more than Igo U.S. utilities are experiment-ing with solaF energy., it pas fallen to publicly owned utilities

"".. such as TVA or heavily regulated ones such as those in Cahfor-nia to actually promote its use. Still the profit motive has.ledsome utilities to embrace solar energy and they may one daybecome good sources of financing and promotion for its use."

Solaradvocates have also protested the entv of some of the

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84 Renewable Energy.

world's largest conventional energy corporAbrrs-into the solar...., industry. During the thid-seventiis, several major oil compa-

nies purchased major shares in solar collector firms. Other largefirms, ranging from General Motors' radiator division to thegtss conglomerate Libby-Owens-Ford, have also moved rg-pidly into the emerging industry. The objection voiced here isthat giant energy conglomerates would slow the pace of solardevelopment to protect huge in tments in conventional

sofuels. In fact, me conspiracy theor s suggested that Exxon'sacquisition of Kennecott Copper w s a move to monopolizecopper, a key raw material for inakird solar collectOrs.71

Such fears app6r,exagger ted. After the-, initial flurry ofacquisitions, oil -and aerospa e firms began selling the solarsubsidiaries, feW of which have made profits. Stung by severalyears of disappointing returns, Exxon, the world's largest oilcompany, in 1981 sold its solar hot water heater subsidiary(Daystar) to an independent wlar company (American SolarKing). The new owner sees profit to be made, chiefly by reduc-ing the highly paid administrative staff. In general, most large,high-technology corporations are tecognizing that marketingsolar water lieaters requires a semiskilled work force, attentionto small separated markets, and settling for profit levels typicalin small business. An industry more akin to plumbing than oildrilling simply doesn't need a large corporation's technological

. and manigerial- force.72

The Solar Prospect i

The solar technologies already for sale will contribute evermore to meeting the world's energy needs in the years ahead.The well-established solar hot water heating industry will growrapidly. Government programs, the momentum of the growingindustry; and economic forces will bring solar water heaters toone-fourth of the horiNt* in Japan, two-thirds of the homes in

Solar Collection 85

Israel, and onelixth of all U.S. homes by the year 000. (See

Table )71

Tab e 1. Use of Solar Water and Space Heaters, 1082-2odo

20001982 Midrange Projections

Number of Share of Number of Share ofCountry units homes units homes

United States 1.5 million I in 75 15 minion I in. 9

Japan 3.6 million I in lo 10 million I in 4Israel 300,000 I in 3 I million 3 in 4Western Europe 6o,000 I in 2000 7 million in 15

Source: Worldwatch Institute.

The prospects fOr industrial and agricultural process heatingand solar air conditioning are harder to gauge. But these tech-

nologies could displace use of oil, gas, and electricity even moredramatically than'solar water and space heaters do, even if nomajor technical breakthroughs occmoor users do not cqngregatein sunny areas just to use solar technologies. (See Table 4. / formidrange estimates.)

Table 4. 2. Worldwide Active Solar Energy Potential-

1980 2000 Long-range potential

(exajoules)

.. Residential/commercialwater de space heat

<0.1 ,7 33%-50% Rif total

Industrial/agriculturalprocess heat

<0.1 2.9 25 70-50 % of total

Solar ponds <0.1 2.1-4.2 10-30 +

A

Source. Worldwatch Institute

Despite a slow start, applying solar technology to industry'sneeds could spawn a new industry. The InterTechnology Cor-

(


pOration asserts that tracking para ic concentrators couldp,comthand a third of the krocess hea market by the year 2000,assuming a 15 percent rate of return, and the 1979 U.S. Do-mestic Policy Review on Solar Energy piedicted that 2.8 exa-joutes of solar industrial energy use is technically and econorni;cally feasibke for the year 2000. Supplying this much enerwill require') between 700 and goo million square meters 6,collectors at a cost of about $400 billion and will probably nooccur until well after the turn of the century. It will also requireinstalling solar equipment in most new industrial facilities.74

No detailed surveys of the worldwide potential of solar pondshave been cirried out, but scatejsd national and regionalassessments indicate these ponds are, a world-class energy rze-source.,One survey of fourteen sunny countries puts energycapacity' frOm natUrally saline lakes alone at, between 30,000and 1 6o,000 megawatts by 'the year -2000. Analysts at theUniversity of Sydney estimate that Like Torrens, one of manysaline lakes in southern Australia, could yield over thirty timesas much electricity as the state now consumek. And in the mostdetailed large-area survey yet performed, Jet Propulsion Labo-ratory reseatchers found that 8.9 quads of heat and electricity(more than io perce,nt Of total U.S. energy use in 1980) couldbe economically produced by solar ponds in-the U.S, Sunbeltby the year 2000. Large areas of Soviet and Chine4 CentralAsiar the Middle East, and northern Africa also appear wellsuited for salt ponds.75 ..

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5

Sunlight to ElectricityThe NewAlchemy

J4

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$

If some renewable energy technologies are workaday de;ites,photovoltaic cells excite the imagination. Developed duringthe semiconductor revolution of the fifties, these ingeniousdevices convert sunlight into electricity in one simple andnonpqlluting step. By changing one of the world's most abun-dant and widespread energy sources into one of the most versa-tile and valuable _forms of energy, photovoltaic solar cells worka feat of near alchemy. Steam turbines and other conventionaltechnologies powered by fuel combustion appear clumsy andinefficient by comparison.,"

Without moving parts, photovoltaic Systems are reliable andneed little maintenanceclaims that can be m'ade for few new

e-

88 Renewable Energy

energy technologies. And solakells could well be the ultimatedecentralized energy technology. Unlike most energy systems,the cost of harnessing photovoltaic electricif9 falls orbly mod-estly as system size increases, so solar cells can be used in smallquantities on rooftops, on farms, in rural communities, andeven in cities. Photovoltaics offers indiv uals an unprece-dented opportunity to generate their own elec icity. In ThirdWorld villages, solar cells could provide small but vital amountsof electricity for the poor majority.

But such changes are still around' the corner. The mainprobl6 is not technological. Solar cells have worked w,ell invarious applicattions for over two decades. Rather, the problem.

is cost. At current prices, a photovoltaic, system can easilyincrease the cost of an electricity-guzzling modem house by. 50percent: Indeed, most solar electricity systems installed so farare tiny and are located on micro9ve repeaters, fire lookouts,and similar itmote facilities. The approximately io,000 housesequipped with small photovoltaic syStems worldwide are virtu-ally all in regions without,conventiondlly generated electricity.'

Still, photovoltaics developinent has been so rapid that eco-nomic constraints could rapidly fall away. Between 197 and1982, the worldwide production of solar cells expanded morethan tenfold and their' cost fell approximately 50 percent.2During ,that period approximately, fifty comPanies worldwideentered the photovoltaics business( Such spectacular advancescannot continue indrfinitely, but significant progress is ex-pected throughout the coming decade. ln fact, there are nowseveral technologies in the world's photovoltaic laboratorieswith the potential to revolutionize the solar cell itdustry if theyprove feasible for commercial production,

1 02

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Sun ligtt 0 Electricity: The New Alchemy 89

' I

A Space-Age Technology4

Solar cells are, of modern science born. They have no richhistory, no traditional uses Photovoltaic technology rests onsolid state physics, a science barely understpod until the, mid-twentieth century. Like microelectronici, photovoltaics is

based on'the use of semiconductorsmaterials that have prop-erties in between those of a metal and nonmetal and so con--duct electricity only slighty. Alsc,like microelectronics, photo-voltaici could become one of' the twentieth century's greattechnological success stories. t

While French scientist Edmund Becquerel discovered in1839 that when light strikes some materials it causes an electiicspark, it took scientists many years to understand the cause ofthis "photoelectric effect"that "photons" of light can 'dis-lodge the electrons that orbit all atoms. In silicon and, a fewother semiconducting materials these dislodged electrons canbe turned into a tiny electric current. For decades, the utility

!

of this phenomenon went unrecognized.3 $

In 1954"scientists at Bell Laboratories in the United Statesdiscovered that single crystals of silicon could be mide intopractical photovoltaic cells...Within a year experimental silipaiiCells made in Bell Labs were converting 8 to i i percent ofincoming sunlight into electricity. BrieflY, Bell consideredusing the newly developed solar cells to power telephone sys-tems in remote areas. Business Week let its' imagination runwild, envisioning an automatically controlled solar car in which"all the riders could sit comfortably in the back seat and per-haps watch solar-powered TV" Such dreams were soondashed by economic reality, however. Costs for the newly de-veloped sotar cells were sky high '(perhaps sixty times currentprice).

Wereit not for tbe U.S. space program, photovoltaic energymig I t have faded from the scene. But when,satollite scientistsin the mid-fifties began 'searching for a very light And long-

$ 16 /l' . 1

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90` Renewable Energy i..

lasting power source that could be boosted easily into orbit, thenewly developed solar cell emerged as the best candidate.When.the space race began in earnest a few years later, theU.S. government devoted considerable, funds to solar cell devel-opment, bringing into being a photovoltaics industry that sup-plied power panels for hundreds of American satellites. Todaysolar cells power virtually all saiellites, including those for de-fense as well as scientific research. Solar electricity is particu-larly imPOrtant to the growing world information economysince solar cells 6e used on sptellites-that relay long distancetelephone calls, contputer hookups, and television transmis-sions.

Yet space program researoh did not lead directly to thedevelopment of photoyoltaics of practical terrestrial use. Thespace program's needs were for light, efficient, and reliable cells ,

_

operable where sunlight is more intense than it is on the earth'ssurface. Cost mattered little 'siiice relatively few cills wererequired and the space program's budget was otherworldlyanyway. Consequently, solar cells developed for.space were stillfar too.- expensive for widespread use on earth.

The next spurt of interestin solar cells came when electricityprices began soaring in the early seventies. Researchers both in .

Europe and the United States looked anew at the technologyand studied the potential for reducing its cost;clAlmost over- .night, diverse photovoltaics research programs aippeared in sev-eral countries. Tosome visionary technologists, solar cells' fu-ture as a major, electricity source seemed bright.

Most commercial 'development programs have so far focused(

on single-crystal silicon cells similar to fhose developed by BellLabs. While siliCon, the wain component of sand, is thetecondmost abundant element on earth, the,silicon from which semi-conductors are made must have at most one impure atom perbillion. One of the Turest commercial materials used, it isenergy-intensive and expensive to produce.

After purification the silicon is melted and then Carefully. t

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Sunlight to Electricity: The New Alchemy 91

drawn from a vat using a technique known as the Czochralskiprocess. The silicon is simultannitly combined with small

a quantities of another element (usually boron). The resultingc'rystal, which is about ro centimeters in diameter and up toone meter long, is then sawed into many thin wafers in adifficult, expensiNe manner similiar to slicing bologna Addingto the cost is the waste of about half of the valuable purifiedsilicon in slicing. Each wafer is "doPed" with trace elementsthat form a barrier of electric charge between the two'sides ofthe. cell that,directs the flow of electrons set free by ificomingsunlight. .7

Metal contacts placed on the front and back of the cell carrythe dectricity thaLhas been generated to a batteiy or otherdevice. Groups of photovoltaic cells are wired together in amodule that is typically a square meterin size and encapsulatedin glass and soft plastic for protection. Each module resembles

.. an fordinary solar collector and has a generating capacity of

approximately loo watts.5, . .

gesearchers have already greatly reduced the cost of single-crystal silicon cells. From over $600 per peak watt at the 1

beginning of the space program, the cost of solar cells fell to$zoo per peak watt in the early sixties and to $5o per peak wattby the early seventies. Today, solar modules cost in theo4gh-

, borhood of $8 to $15 per peak watt, apd the market for photo-voltaics for communications installations, small pumps, electri-cal rust protection .for bridges, and other specialized or remoteuses is expanding rapidly. Worldwide sales of photovoltaicsreached 8,000 kilowatts of.capacity in 1982over. ten timesthe market size in 1977 and four times the 1979 level. This issufficient generating capacity to supply approximately 15oo

x-modern housesA ,-...

Phenomenal technological success aside, the current state ofthe technology should not I3. overestimated, nor should theneed for continued innovation be dismissed lightly. 'At $ ro perpeak watt, solar cells generate power for approximately $1.ob

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492 , Renewable Energy

toiz.00 per kilowatt-hour depending on the climateover tentimes the cost of power from conventional sources.7 Continu-ing and substantial cost rethictions will be needed before

, photovoltaics can cotnpete economically with electricity fromutility grids.

,

Research Horizons

The future of photovoItaics depends on evolutionary progressin support technologies and further advan es in solar cell pro-duction processes. So far, industry has oncentrated on thetechnologies that are closest to ready for the market and re-quire, relatively little %,,ork to meet cost goalsitGovernment, incontrast, has supported work on potentially less expensive tech-nologies that are still a decade or more from commercial readi-ness. Worldwide, public and private investment in the technol-ogy now amounts to approximately $5oo Million per year,

I two-thirds of it private money.8The Ugited States has backed the world's most ambitious

solar cell development effort. U.S. government spending onphotovoltaicsthe largest component of the renewable energyresearch budgetincreased steadily after 1973, topping $150million per year in 1980 and 1981, only to fall to $75 millionin 1982. , These funds primarily support advanced research onphotovoltaic technology, development of low-Cost_solar arrays,and commercialization programs. As of. 1982 the advincedresearch effort, managed by the Department of Energy and theSolar Energy Research Institute but conducted through uni-versity laboratories and private companies, had become themost active part of the program while commercialization el-

' forts have been all but eliminated. In all, these programs havebeen quite successfulwitness the U.S. lead in both advancedtechnology development and commercial sales.9

Until recently, solar cell research in the United States haseasily exceeded that of other nations combined. But the

Sunlight to Ekctricity: The New Alchemy 93

Reagan administration has reduced the U.S. research programjust as other 'countries are stepping up their efforts. France,Italy, Japan, atid West GermanyWhich have collectivelymore than doubled their budgets between 979 and 1982have the strongest solar cell programs outside of North Amer-ica. Spending approximately $30 million in 1982, Japan's budg-et is(likely to pass that of the United States in just a few years.Moile modest photovoltaics research work is under way in Aus-tralia, Belg*.w, Brazil, Canada, China, England, India, Mex-ico, the Netrerlands, the Soviet Union, Spain, and Sweden.10

Most of these countries are pursuing two or three promisingapproaches to making solar cells qconomical, rather than takingthe U.S. approach of developing a whole array of technologies.As a result, some European nations and Japan could soon takethe international lead in their specialties.

One of the most important and heavily funded photovoltaicresearch frontiirs is manufacturing single-crystal silicon cellsmore cheaply. The most conservative approach is to upgradeand automate each .step of the 9rrent process. Attleast threetechniques now -being deveIop&I will cut by two-thirds thecosts of making high-grade silicon. Nevismethods for growingthe owstals andslicing the wafers are also being, pursued. Re-

. cently developed thousand-bladed saws that cut ultrathin waf-ers reduce waste significantly. 'New automated methods ofassembling solar cells are also under scrutiny. Simply employingalready laboratory-prover-I Piocesses in more automated facto-ries will cut photovoltaics costs by cloie to 50 percent in thenext few years, while raising efficiency to at least.15 percent.

More radical approaches to cost cutting include bypassingboth the crystal growing and slicing stages. Several companiesin the United States and one each in Japan and West Germanyare "growing" large sheets or "ribbons" of singlekrystal orpolycrystalline "silicon directly from liquified silicon. Compli-cated, proprietary, and commercially inimature as the pro-cesses are now, many industry observers expect them to claim

1 1

94 kenewal:sli Energy-

a significant share of the solar cell market by.the late eighties."Another solar ceIl technology with considerable potential is 4

the polyGrystalline silicon cell. Sliced from a large silicon ingotthat is produced through an inexpensive castin& process, thesecells can be made from a less pure and less.expeigive form ofs iliccin. One U.S. company began manufacturing such cellscommercially in 1942 and other firms in the United States andWest Germany have development efforts under way. Polycrys-Ltalline solar cells are 'still comparatively inefficient, however, soboostivg efficiency is a must if this technology is to be success-

. ful commercially.12More research attention is being giVen the so-called "thin

) film" 'solar cells that can be made frOm amorphous silicon,cadmium sulfide, and other inexpensixe materials. All thin-filmcells require only a small amount of material, which gives themthe potential advantage of lower cost. While other researcherstake exception, longtime photovoltaics specialist J. RichardBurke claims that "the low-cost pot at the end of the rainbowlies in the use of truly thin-film photovoltaic cells.".The hopeis that such a material can one day be produced in automatedfacfories for a low costmuch as photographic film is today.In the United States private industry and government haveaggressively developed cells made of amorphous silicon, whichis a disordered material resembling glass that can conductctirrent well once 'II-Orogen is added to it.13

So far, the highest efficiency that has been achieved forproduction-line amorphous silicon cells is 3 to 6 percent, andat least 8 to io percent is needed for commekial success. Toboost cell efficiency, several U.S. and Japanese companies areinvesting tens of millions of dollars. Already Japanese compa-nies live blazed the way to a commercial market by manufac-turing amorphous silicon cells with ,a modest efficiency andusing them in picket calculators and other low-power devices.'By establishing the first commercial market for these cells, theJapanese can employ larger 'manufacturing plants and thus

108

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Sunlight to Electrkity: The-New Alchemy 95

further lowercosts, helping to lay the basis fo'r g vastly larger'market in the futu4.14

Other types of thin-film solar cells are made of cadmiumsulfide and copper alloys. When they were first produced in thefifties, these cells were so inefficient they were ignored. Butinterest reVived in. the seventies when researchers discoveredthat theseolaterials could be made into solar cells with efficien-

cies of over lo percent. Cadmium sulfide now appearstp be theleading contender and may enter commercial prodUtion inthe next few years. Among the other thin-film materials beingexamined pre gallium arsenide, indium phosphide, cadmiumtelluride, and zinc indium dielenide. While none of thesesubstances can be dismissed entirely, some are outside betsbecause they contain rare elements or present potential healthproblems.15

Along with solar cell materials, concentrator systems for usewith photovoltaics are also being developed: Such devices canincrease the amount of solar energy striking a particular cell tento one thousand times, thus Offering the potential of prOdudngrelatively cheap solar power even without major advanco inbasic materials. (The efficiency of most solar cells actually in-creases WI concentrated sunlight as long as the cells are keptcool.) Often mechanical tracking devices are also used to main-tain an optimal angle to the sun throughout the day. By usinginexpensive Fresnel lens concentrators, large areas can be cov-ered for a reasonable cost. Indeed, the cheapest solar power yetgenerated comes from some experimental concentrator sys-tems. So far Italy andtheUnited States dominate the concen-trator field, but a larqe commercial market will not developuntil the systems become more reliable.' One difficulty withsolar concentrators is that they Work poorly in cloudy or hazyconditions where little focused sunlight is available, which maylimit them to sunny climates. Solar cells without concentrators,on the other hand, perform quite well even what it is over-cast's

96 Renewable Energy

V.

,

in a nutshell, the goal of most solar cell researcheriii toachieve efficiencies of 12 tO 15 percent in cells that cost lessthan a fifth Of what they do today. To this end, scientists havedeveloped cost-leduetion goals foi each component and settough deadlines foil reaching them. 'In bOth Japan and theUnited States government program managers constantly moni-tor progress and occasionally redirect rescarch to another, morepromising aspect of photovoltaics teclthology. The U.S. De-partment of Energy price goals eitablished in the lae seventiesnow 'appear unrealistically ambitious, but substantial cost re-duction is nonetheless likely.17

Larger man ufactUring plants employidg more advanced andless expensive processes are scheduled to come on line irt thenext few years. And intense competition for market shares willtend to push prices down. Conventional.crystalline silicon cells,together with ribbon growth and polycrystalline silicon cells,will likely dominate the market for the rest of this decade,though analysts differ asap., which -of these will be the mostsUccessful. Concentrators will probably be widely used in manyapplications, particularly utility plants. Beyond 1990 amor-phous silicon and other thin-film technologies likely will cap-ture the largest share of the Market, pushing prices to new lows.

The photovoltaics market will evolve gradually rather thanin discrete stages and at each point there should be'a range oftechnologies to choose fromeach with its specialized applica-tions. Module prices will probably falr to approximately $3.perwatt (1980 ,dollars) by 1987 and to about $2 per watt by 11990.At that price a total solar electric.system will cost' between $4and $8 per watt and generate electricity at a cost of 130 to3o0 per kilowatt-hour (as opposed to over $1 per kilowatt-hourtoday). This is getting close to standard electricity prices inmany parts of the world, including Europe and Japan. Predic-tions beyond the early nineties are difficult to make -since theiare dependent on technologies barely beyond the laboratorystage. But further. substantial cost reductions are likely since

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t Sunlight to Electricity: The New Alchemy 97

the photoyoltaics market will Ise large enough to attract big.investments. Given the rising costs of most sources of electric-ity, including coal and nuclear power, photovoltaics is fkely tobe a competitive electricity source in all but a few areaidf theworld by the mid-nineties.'4

Building an Industry

The photovoltaics industry is still a young one, with annualsales revenues of, about $150 million in 1982. Approximatelysixty companies manufacture solar cells today, and over a hun-

\ .dred more build components and support systems Three U.S.firms had over half of the wortdwidemarket in 1980, but mostphotovoltaccs companies are small,and,internatiOnal competi-tiorris growing rapidly. Many firms subsist largely oh risk capi-tal or government research programs, hoping to begin turninga profit when their product improves. The pressing question for'most is how to survive until the cost of photovoltaic's cancompete with the costs of conventional sources of electricity,thus blowing the solar cell market wide open. Before this har-vest, large investments are needed, along with bigger plantsand some means of disseminating the technology quickly Suchprogress hinges, of course, on the strength of the industry.1P

Centered in France, Great Britain, Italy, japan, the UnitedStates, and West Germany, the solar cell industry has alwaysstOod apart. horn other renewable energy industries. It is arealm of three-piece suits and carefully crafted investmentplans. In Europe and Japan, established electronics giants suchas Sanyo, Sharp, and Siemens hold the industry in their hands,but in the United States there is more diversity. Many smallcompanie§ have sprung up in the U.S., born of risk capital,government research funds, and bright ideas. Solarex, the larg-

'est photovoltaics company in the world, was started fromscratch by a handful of young American scientists who largelyrelied 'on venture capital.20

98 Renewable Energy

Since the late seventies the solar cell industry has begun toconsolidate. Only a few strong companies remain in EuropeAter a wave of mergers. And in the United States several large'corporations have purchased a'sizable share of the most com-

,pettive solar cell firm's. No other renewable energy technologyhas Prov4so attractive to large corporations, probably becausethe poten6al market for photovoltaics is almost unlimited andbecause only big.firms have sufficient investment capital. In-deed, as of 1982 it cost an estimated $50 millton simply toenter the industry.21 Oil companies in particular have.taken ashjne to photovoltaics, and the tiny solar cell industry nowinollicles in its ranks such multinational behemoths as AtlanticRichfield, British Petroleum, Exxon, and .Shell Oil.

The irony of these developments has not escaped those whofirst advocated photovoltaics as a decentralized teChnology. Oilcompanies noi, seem eager to get a putchase on every energysourte from uranium to solar power, and some watchdogs fearthat the oil companies inay intend to develop an energy mo-nopoly and impede progress' in photovoltaics until the oil wellsrun dry. Although such fears are understandable, they are prob-ably overblown. The pace of photovoltaics development is un-likely to be affected significantly by the state of the oil market,and in any case there remains sufficient competition in photo-

, voltaics to. preclude a monopoly. Indeed, Morris Adelman ofthe Massachusetts Institute of Technology believes that "thenotion that the energy giants, controlling the biggest part ofthe manufacturing capacity in photovoltaics, Could set theprice artificially high to protect their other investments, isunrealistic."22

The most serious charge against oil companies' involvementin photovoltaics is that they tend to be hidebound and un-imaginative and haste- little experience in this type of industry.Small firms have made a disproportionate share of the world'smajor industrial breakthroughs, and more small companies

'would likely speed the development of photOvoltaics. Yet too

1112

Sunlight to Electricity: The New Alchemy

many governments direct most of their research funding tolarge corporations. True, the sizable investments needed makeit likely that large companies will in the long run dominate solar

. cell manufacturing. But small companies are well equipped toplay a pioneering role and later to retail, assemble, and installsolar power systems. -

Internationally, market competition is' a sure thing. Already. mdre than half of the world's solar cells are exported, and each

major approach to developing photovoltaics is being exploredin more than one country; With exPOrts high and patent pro-tection inherently weak, industry leadeuhip can change handsrapidly. In the white heat of international competition, techno-logical improvements and cost ?eductions will be spurred,

initially, its technical prowess and government financialcommitments gaye the United States a head start in the photo-voltaics industry. BY the late seventies the U.S. was the.undis-puted leader in virtually all solar cell tecluiologies: But byfocusing on fewer technologies, countries with smaller'researchbudget§ are attaining a competitive poSition. Japan has alreadymoved to the "cutting edge" in amorphons silicon. Joint ven-tures and international licensing agreement4 that allow firq in'other countries to manufacture U.S.-diesighed solar cells are

, also speeding up the diffusion of solar-cell technology.23Since knowledge of photovoltaics technology is already wide-

spread, marketing skills Will be as important as cell costs indetermining the industry's frontrunrArs. A particularly com-petitive market will be that in the Third World. Firms in

- Europe and Wan will have a,natural advantage since they havetraditionattráding ties and experience selling thealiesel pumps,generators, batteries, and other devices with which' photo-voltaics Will be paired. More specifically, French firms have anadvantage in West Africa, West German.gompanies in partsof Latin America, and Japanese firms in Southeast Asia. Thesecountries have incorporated solar-cell export drives ink; devel-opment-assistance programs and worked hard to promote the

, ,113 '

100 Renewable Energy /

technol4y. In contrast, the lack of such programs in theUnited States has some' industry leaders contKrned that theU.S. will lose itAnternational market lead by the late eighties.The likely heir would be Japan: whose Ministry of Interna-tional Trade and Industry is devoting increasing funds tophotovoltaics and is eager to repeat successes like those earnedin the automobile and microelectronics industries.24

Still, no.one or two companies can dominate this market,and international links between firms will blur the whole ques-tion of international lcarders14._ As the world market grows,high transportation costs will also force solar electric systemsmanufacturers to fabricate at least some components locally. Itis possible, for instance, that the silicon, may be refined in onecountry, the cells manufactured in a second, and the panelsassembled in a third. Already several developing countries havenascent solar cell industries, assembling components iniportedfrom industrial countries as a prelude to manufacturing wholesystems domestically. Brazil, China,. India, Mexicä; ancf thePhilippines ar9.among the Third World nations that are likelyto lead the Ay in photovoltaics.

A Future for Solar Power

Perhaps no other energy teshnology his the versatility of solarcells. David Morris of the Institute forlocal Self-Reliance inthe United States observes that "using the same energy sourcesunlightand the same technolOgy, we could have e mostdecentralized or the most centralized form of epr1ity gener-ation in history."25 So far, though, ercial market for

"solar cells consists almost entirely of mini-scale electrical sys-tems in rutalaaas. Most are coupled with batteries and provideonly enough power to operate a radio telephone or light a fewbulbs. Such systems are crucial, however, in providing reliablecommunications in Papua New Guinea and lighting rescuecabins in the Swiss Alps.

11 4

Sunlight to Electricity: The New Alchemy 101. \

.

According to many photooltaics anal) sts, the first large useof solar cells will be in the Third World. On farms and inillages there, the power currently supplied by sitall dieselgenerators costs seeral timek.more than grid electricity Smallsolar electric systems could economically pow er pumps, light-,ing systems, agricultural equipment, refrigerators, and otherimportant devices. For refrigerfition or lighting, batteries 6r a

"backup power source willbe needed, but for many end uses the. de ice can be left idle when the sun is not shining. As of 1980,

'photovoltaics is alreadycompetitive with diesel generators inrural electricity applications of less than three kilowatq of,

ecapacity.26Since.1978 the world's first village solar electric system, with

a capacity of 3.5 'kilowatts, has been operating on the PapagoIndian Reservation in tile U.S. Southwest. Since then, severalsimilar systems have been built in Africa an) Asia with fundsfrom European and American aid agencies. The largest centerof photovoltaics aaivity is West Africa, chere since the lateseenties France has been introducing solar-powered pumpsand other systems as part of its rural development programs.One innoative efforkis to use.solar power to ultr -energy-efficient televisions Rir educational uses Anoi er is t

fprovide

electricity for refrigeration of medicines at remote health cen-ters.27

Within the developing world, interdt in solar electricity hasrisen sharply iri, recent years. India's government is conductingphotovoltaics research,_fostering a domestic soli.; cell industry,and sponsoring solar electric demorkstration projects. Pakistanpimp to, introduce solar electricity in fourteen villages by 1984.In both countries a market 'for small solar-powered pumps isbeginning to emerge.

By 1990 operating experience could combine with technicalimprovements to make photovoltaics a nearly conventionaltechnology in the Third World. Crucial here will be additionalwork on battery systems and other support technoldgies. For

102 ReneTiable Energy

viflagers, the impact of even small amounts of electricity couldbe revolutionary.. It could mean fresh well water, refrigerationfor storing food and medicine, and lights for reading and work-ing at nightmodest amenities by industrial country standardsbut godsends for many of the world's poor.28

Sorntwhat later, solar cells are likely to appear onerooftopsin cities and suburbs throughout the world. Liter houses withs.olar water heaters, photovoltaics-equipped houses require asouthern exposure and rugged, longlasting materials. Light-weight photovoltaic panels need selatively little structural sup-.port, but they need more south-kcing roof space than collec:tors do. (A typical 3-kilowatt residential solar electric system

. requires 30 squire meters of pane1s.)29Although it will be easier to use photovoltaics on horts

specifically designed for their use, it appears that existing sub-urban communities may be able to .get as much as,half of theelectricity they.need from solar cells. There are already approxi-mately io,000 houses located in areas without power lines that \have small (less than -kilowatt) direct current photovottaic-)systems with batteries that meet essential needs. Providingsu ment power fa a tyPical motleph house is more difficult.

o keep rooftop photovoltaic systems from competing withsolar water heatprs and windows for south-side space 'and tosolve other engineering problems, architeas and engineers

Their focus is n making photovoltaic systems easierhave designed a few so r electric houses as demonstration

)projects.and ch4aper to install and on integrating solarolegtricity\ with

passive solar architecture and the many other featureshorgebuyers value. One U/S. company has developed a dual-purpose Phbtovoltaic shingle. Another designer is actuallyusing specially-designe4d solar electric panels' as roofing. Al-though the few iblar h6uses built so far "have sold for over$zoo,000, these homes serve as a proving ground, allowing therefinement of designs and support technologies in preparationfor the day when solar cells become cost-competitive."

1 6

Sunlighi to Electricity:The New Alchemy 103

Solar cells more than any other technology have the poten-tial to decentralize electricity generation. In urban and subur-ban areas.thousands of residential solar systems could be con-nected to utility lines, doing away with the need for expeniivebattery storage. Solar homes could draw power from the gridat sunless times and pay fen- it by selling excess electricity to theutility when sunshine is plentiful. In sunny, dry areas wherepeak electricity; demantl for air conditioning occurs when sun-light is most intense, this arrangement could be a boon. Else-where, only careful planning will make solar electric houseseconomical for utilities and consumers.

nig prospect for decentralized electr4city generation tnot-w ithstAnding, some utilities see in solar pdwer systems a chanceto make centrakzed generation more versatile. The idea, whicle,many photoNoltaics researchers and industry leaders considerpractical, is to erect large arrays of solar cells (and perhapsconcentrators) in sunny areas and to integrate them with theutility grid. Although solar cells themselves have no economiesof scale, photovoltaic systems do, especially the power-condi-tioning equipment used for utility intercoonnection. Sdme re-searchers believe that centralized solar4stems will be fhe firstmajor use for photovoltaics in industrial countries.

Only a few large photovoltaic systems have been built so far.The largest is a 350-kilowatt system in Saudi Arabia that 'sup-plies power fOr three villages and was funded t:sy the SaudiArabian and U.S. govevments. A larger i,000-kilowatt grid-connected system is being built with fe0eral and state funds atthe Sacramento Municipal Utility District in California. Asimilar project is under waY in Italy. And in 1982 the firstcontract was signed for an entirely privately financed utilityphotovOltaic systembetween ARCO Solar and SouthernCalifornia, Edison."

The most pie-in-the-sky way of harnessing solar electricity isyia the "solar satellite." Several researchers in the, UnitedStates have proposed placing large arrays of solar cells in sta-

104 - Renewable Energy ."

tionary orbit around the earth and using microwave transmit-ters to comic the power to land-based # eeiver. Since sunlightis more interise outside the atmosphere,,it iS theoretically possi-ble to reap a great energy harvest in space. But even ardent'advocates of this technology admit that it will be decadesbefor e. launching such vast quantities of materials into orbit isfeasible. And skePtics question whether it will ever be economi-cal considering the laige amoUnt of energy needed to overcomegravity. More disturbing are the potential health and environ-mental effects of a high-energy beam aimed at the tarth'ssurface. Microave radiation causes health problems, and even-ihe earth'sratthosphere could be 'altered. At any rate, no oneis banking On solar satellite research at the moment, and manyrenewable energy advocates believe that the idea gives an aura.of science fietiori io a technology ready for here-and-now use.on earth.32

Assessing the worldwide potential for using solar photovol-taic cells takes patience and imalination. Beyond the consider-able.technical uncertainties are questions about intermediatemarkets and the industry's strength during the critical mid- tolate-eigLIties, when solar cells will be.economically corivetiti6only in areas without conventional sources of electriky. Themid-nineties may be another stoiy; but that will depend onmajor cost reductions in photovoltaics and on the price ofcompeting electricity sources. In the industrial countries elec-tricity use is likely to grow only slowly in the nineties, butsubstantial solar qell sales may icur as older power plants areretired. A boom arket in the developing countriesparticu:larly those that 4re industrializing rapidlyis a distinct possi-bility as well.

Various forecasts of photovoltaics use have been made, allof them based largely on guesswork. The goal of the U.S.photovoltaics proem as formulated by Congress in 1978 is todouble the manufacture of solar cells each year so as to reach

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Sunlight to Electricity: The New' Alchemy 105

an annual output of 2,000 megaVVatts of cells by 1988 (250times the 1982 total). The U.S. Department of Energy subse-quently established a goal of obtaining i qua'drillion Btu's (just

over i exajoule) of energy from photovoltaics by the year 20Q0This would require an installed capacity of over 5,0;000 mega-watts, or about as much capacity as nuclear power has in theUhited States today. It is now clear that these early goals werethigh, particularly considering:the limited funds the govern-ment has devoted to achieving them. In Japan the goals thathave been established are mare conservative and realistic Thecountry aim's eventually to generate 29 percent of its electricityusing solar cells .placed mainly on rooftops, but most of thisgrowth, is tiot expected until the 19905.33 .

Worldwide trends are `even more uncertain, but tbe industry%

has advanCed far enough in the last few Years to narrow therange of possibilities. There will likely be at least 1,000 mega-watts of solar cells installed by 1990, a 'large portion of themin developing countries. ljy the year 2000, the total will proba-

bl$, ratyge between 5,000 aud 20,000 megawatts, depending

both on the paimarof technological improvements and the level

of government support. Even the latter 'figure would provide

just 0.4 exajoules of energy, but much more rapid progress

seems likely after the turn of the century as the technology,matures and many conventional power.plants reach retirementage. By mid-century, solar electric systems-should be a commonrooftop appliance throughout the world and should provide

.perhaps 20 percent of the world's electricity. This would re-quire a total capacity of around a million megawatts, installed

both onitooftops and at centralized power stations. The energycontribution would approach 20 exajoules.34

Solar electric sytems are clearly among the brightest hopes

on the energy scene today. Their potential to provide inexpen-sive, independent power to people and industries throughoutthe world is far more important than their gross energy contri-

1ij

106 Renewable Energy

bution. Thanks to advances being made in this seemingly ex- 'otic new technology, the living standards of hundreds elnil .lions of people in developing countries can be significantlyraised in the next few decades. .

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%

_For most of human history, people have burned wood to cook 1

their food, stay warm, and light their environment. Even today,it remains the world's most widely used renewable energysource. Although deforestation and mounting population pres-sures are constricting the wood supply, most of the woodburned today is used much as it always has been. Only in theindustrial North, where rising oil prices have triggered a revivalof wood use for residential and inthistrial heat, have combus-tion techniques advanced significantly.

As traditional uses grow, efforts to turn wood into electricity,gas, and methanol are also getting under way. Realizing woodalcohol's potential to power the transportation system will re-.

,

. 12i

v

1


quire Making wood burning more efficient and phasing outsome traditional demands for wood. Indeed, the world's forestscan meet rising needs for wood energy only if forest and wood-lot management improves in rich and poor nations alike. By thesame token, if the health of the forests is neglected, the pushto get more energy froni wood we backfire, reducing theforests' potential to provide lumber and paper as well as energV.

An Ancierd Fuel in .Crisis

Approximately 2 billion people reiy on biomass energy. Whileanimal wastes, crop residues, Ad draft animals . also supplyenergy to the world's poor, wood is the principal source of

. energy for 8o percent of all people in developing areis, and halfthe world cooks with wood. In Africa fuelwood meets 58 per-cent of total energy demand. In Ethiopia, Neihl, Sudan, Thai-land, and even oil-rich Nigeria, '90 percent of ,the poolationdepends on wooci. Even in larger towns and cities wood is usedin the form of charcoal,, which is lighter and cheaper to trans-port than wood and burns smoke-free. In Thailand, for exam-ple, almost half the wood used for fuel is first transformed tocharcoal.' . .

Dependence on wood reflects a lack of other options. Fewin rural areas can afford electricity even if it is available. In thedeveloping world only three out of twenty villages have elec-tricity, while such fossil fuels as kerosene, butane, and propanewere pushed out Of the reach of many Third World faMiliesby the oil price increases of the seventies. According to anexpert' panel that advised the 1981 U.N. Conference onNew and Renewable Sources of Energy, more than ioo mil-lion people cannot obtain even the firewood needed to meetminimum needs, and another one billion people need morethan they can now get. By century's end over 2 billion peoplewill live in firewood-deficieni areas, primarily semiarid regions

. 'and highlands. (See Table 6. 1.) Today, the problem 'appeari

122

Wood Crisis, Wood-Renaissance 109

most acute on the densely populated Indian subcontinent andalong the Sahara Desert's edge. In Latin America scarcities offirewood and charcoal plague much of the Caribbean, CentralAmerica, and the Andean highlands.2

Region

Table 6.1. Fuelwood Shortage in Developing'Countries

1980 2 000

Acute scarcity Deficit Acute scarcity Deficit

(millions of people affected)

AfricaNear East de North AtriaAsia Pacific.'Latin America

Total

55 146 88 t447104 268.645 238 1532104 30 ..523

999 356 2770

Source FAO, Report of the Technical Panel on Fuelwood and Charcoal to the U.N.Conference on New 4nd Renewable Sources of Energy, Nairobi, August 1981

*Figure is not available

oilk.

The fuelw risis stems fiorn the practice of ancient tradi-tions in chang circumstances. Although deforestation is asold as recorded history, today's fuelwood crisis has compira-lively recent origins. The postwar burst in Population growth,.thOaccelerated conversion of forest land into farmland, and theincrease in livestock herds have together pressed reniainingwoodlands inexorably. In short, firewood gathering exacerbatesalready serious problems of deforestation.3 .

Commercial firewood prices have multiplied almoit every-where over the last decade. In parts of India, West Africa, andCentral America, urban families spend one-quarter of theirincome on wood or charcoal for cooking.- When firewoodbecomes harder to find, people forego their nighttime fire or,worse, their meal. Hard to quantify, the effects of scarcity andhigh costs of firewood and charcoal are devastating by anymeasure. . -

Most fuelwood never enters the marketplace, so a better

123

4.

110 . Renewable Emil,,

indicator of scarcity is the iiine it takes to find wood. In centralTanzania, providing a family's annuat firewood *requires be-tween 250 and 300 days of labbr. In deforested parts of India,it takes 2 dai,s to gather a week's wood. And in parts of UpperVolta, women spend an average of four and a half. hours a dayhunting fdr firewood. Since the burden of firewood collectionalmost always falls on women and children, critical but unpaidhousehold tasks such as nutrition, sanitation, and educationsuffer. The costs of this mounting burden show up not inconventional economic indicators, but in indices of infant mor-tality, disease, and illiterac5,24 .. -

Fuelwood price rises and supply reductions are also limitingthe growth of small-scale industrial enterprises in many ThirdWorld countries. Brick baking, tobaccoCuring, fish drying, andcement making all depend heavily on wood. Although mostconntries devote only 2 tO 1 i percent of their fuelwood to suChprocesses, in many these activities represent the fastest-grow-ing use for wood. In some cases Otical export industries de-pend upon wood. Tanzania cures tobacco with wood, andThailand does the same with rubber. Yet in bath countrieswood is being cut at an unsustainable rate. Around one fishingcenter in the Sahel region of Africa, where every year 40p00tons of fish are dried using 13o,noo tons of wood, deforestationextends ioo kilorneters.5

One way to check these trends in developing countries is tomake fuel burning more efficient. The open hearths over whichmost Third World people cook are only 6'to 8 percent efficient.By comparison, airtight stoves manufactured in the West are30 to 8o percent efficient. While such stOves are far too expen-'sive for developing-country residents to use, inexpeniive im-provements over traditional open hearths (such as simple stovesbuilt from locally made bricks) can boost efficiency to 15 per-

)11cent, effectively halving a h usehold's wood needs. The Lorenastove developed in Gnat ala costs between $5 and $15.Molded- froin mud and sand and fitted with a metal damper

1 2 4

'.

Wood Crisis, WOod Renaissance 111

and pipe, it is twice as efficient as the traditional stove itdisplaces. The simple and cheap Junagadh stove developed inIndia is reportedly 30 percent efficient.6

Several social and economic obstacles have kept simple cookstoves from being widely accepted in any Third World coun-try. One is the lighting property of an open fire. Another is itssocial yalue. Then too, even though thick smoke from openfires has been called poor people's smOg, it also repels insectsfrom the house and roof thatching. A major problem is ex-pense. Many rural families canbot afford even the simplest. ,stove.7

, To better rural firewood prospects at least a dozen develop-ing countries have started programs to spread simple stovesthroughout rural villages. In Senegal an effort sponsored jointlyby France and the United States has encouraged over i ,000villagers to build and use a Lorena-type stove, the Ban ak Sunf.India has also mounted an ambitious effort to build cookingstoves. The key to all such 'programs will be designing stovesthat alipeal to the village women who must operate and main-tain them. Speed is alSo essential since new households areforming far more quickly than cook stove use is increating.8

Another approach to conservirereWood is producing char-coal more efficiently. In the most NNely used and least efficientmethod, stacked wood covered with earth is allowed to smolderin the absence of oxygen for several daysa process that wastes75 to go pertent of the wood's energy. Switching to kilns madeof brick or steel illows the production of charcoal much more-efficiently. But steel kilns are prohibitively expensive, so thelikeliest replacements in poor countries for highly inefficientearth pits are brick kilns made from locally available clay.9

Besides burning wood more efficiently, wood-short countriescan make better use of -wood cut from lands being pressed intoagricultural and industrial use. In Tanzania, for example, to-bacco farmeri clear one piece of land for crops and then cutwood from another parcel to cure the harvest. Simply, storing

126

,112 Renewable Energy

the wood or making it into charcoal could drastically reduce theamount of wood cut for tobacco production. Two heavy char-coal users, Brazil and Sri Lanka, have learned to make full useof felled trees. All the trees on 65,000 hectares of land sched-uled to be flooded when-the Tucurui dam is finished in Brazilare being cut for lumber exports and charcoal production be-fore the floodgates close. In Sri Lanica, the Charlanka companywill use portable kilns to turn 25 million tons of wood residuesthat would otherwise be wasted into charcoal for the cementindustry, which currently depends On imported _petroleum.The Brazilian wood ,harvest will be a one-time affair, but theSri Larikans are planning to pfant 13,000 hectares of eucalyptusto perpeivate charcoal supplies.10

The Return to Wood

Like the developing, countries today, Canada, the UnitedStates, Europe, and Russia once depended almost exclusivelyon wood. Augmented by human and animal power and a mod-est amount of wind and water power,,Ivood formed the energybasis of the New. and Old Worlds well into the nineteenthcentury. Wood was used to cook and heat, and as charcoal, itwas used in metal smelting. Forests ;odd not meet the risingdemand, and these countries turned to coal."

Since the oil shock of j973, wood has come into a secondage. This revival has been most visible in the residential heatingmarket and the forest products industry in the United Statesand Canada. Residential firewood use in the United Statesmore than doubled between 1972 and 1981, and the numberof homes heated entirely by wood has reached 4.5 million,while another to million are partially heated with wood. InCanada some 200,000 homes are heated solely with wood. NewEngland and eastern Canada lead the return to wood-stove use,reflecting in part the region's great dependence on expensiveheating oil. (In 1981 half the homes,in northern New England

126

Wood Ctisis, Wood Renaissance 113

were heated at least paytially with wood.) Other well-forestedregions are taking woZstovds more seriously, though wherewinters are mild and cheap natural gas or hydroelectric powerplentiful the trend is less pronounced.12

In heavily forested parts of Europe and the Soviet Union,wood is an important source of energy for residences. InAustria,, for example, almost one-third of all homes meet somepart of their heating needs with wood. And in the USSR,where fuelwood accounts for 20 percent-of the timber harvest,at least one-quarter .,of the residences are wood,warmed. Be-cause wood use was already high;coal reserve's abu,ndant, andnatural gas and electricity chea0, wood use in the Soviet Unionrose little during the seventies.13

The rekindled interest in wood stoves stems partly fromrecent improvements in stove designs that have been aroundfor a century or more. Although its playful flames and glowingembers may make it more aesthetically appealing than a woodstove, an open hearth lets at least half the warmth of the fireescape up the chimney, so the updraft actually draws cooler airinto the room. Airtight or brick stoves radiate far more heatinto the surrounding space than fireplaces do. At a cost of from

, $800 to $200o per unit, the Finnish or Russian brick sfove,whicfi tr s hot gases so that the bricks absorb and rerldiatemore t, is reportedly oo percent efficient.14

Natu ally, the appeal of wood stoves for residential heatingdepends on how much conventional fuels .and the wood itselfcost. Compared to a furnace that burns heating oil, a woodstove in a well-forested area can save-a household hundreds ofdollars a yearmore if the members of the household collectand cut their own firewood. The economic advantage of woodstoves is less clear where low-priced natural gas is available.More certain is wood's competitiveness with electricity. In

4 forested regions with electricity prices at or above the U.S.national average of about 60 per kilowatt-hour, wood is eco-nomic today.15

121


Another factor affecting the use of wood as a residential fuelis ease and convenience of handling. Alihough chopping, tarry-ing, and loading wood is worthwhileeven invigoratingtosome, the convenience of electric, oil, or gas heating cannot bediscounted. One way to take the hard labor out of using woodwould be to glopt recently developed wood-fired furnaceswhose thermostatically controlled feeders automatically conveywood pellets into th9 fire grates. Still, these probleins, alongwith the difficulty land expense of transporting the wood4".needed to heat even a thedium-sizea urban area, mean thatWood will probably never be used widely% in cities.16

The residential wood-burning revival also poses serioushealth and pollution-control challenges. Proper installation isessential to safe use Of wood stoves sincehot stoves can causefires or emit harmful smoke into homes. Paradoxically, burningwood by utilities and industry causes fewer problems than thedispersed use of wood in small stoves because most large woodboilers come equipped with pollution-control systems. Smokeis an especially serious problem in valleys where temperatureinversions occur and smoke accuniulates. Although recentstudies indicate that, except for hydrocarbon particulates,wood burning produces fewer pollutants than fossil fuel com-bustion does, possible carcinogens have been found in woodstove, smoke. In some areas, such as Vail, Colorado, so muchsmoke from wood stoves has accumulated that theirlise hasbeen limited aw. Iron ' e more efficie irtig cast-iron stov ow selling-to well gene e more ha dous orga c particles than traditiOnal open hearth fires do bcause th stoves burn more slowly.17

Fortuna e y, new technology can alleviate the air-pollutionhazards of wood s ves. Dow Corning Corporation's "catalytic .combuster," a $ loo device similar to a catalytic converter onan auttmobile, burns off a stove's exhaust gases, thus increasingthe average stove's efficiency by zo to 30 percent, enough topay for itself. Although several major manufacturers plan to sell

1 28

Wood Crisis, Wood Renaissance 115

stoves-with the new catalytic combuster, government will haveto establish a wood stove tax credit or grant and require the useof combusters to make sure these ,devices are used widely. Byoffering such nditional incentives of 25 to 50 percent, gov-ernments co d avert a growi4,pollution problem and placewood stoves 16n an equal footing with heavily subsidized con-ventional energy sources.18

New Uses for Wood

Wood is being put to many new uses, too. A growing-number,of modern industries are turning to wood, and some utilities aretrying it out in electricity generation. Wood gasification isagain being used in agriculture, industry, and commerce. Thesingle most important new use for wood may be as methanol,a liquid fuel that could one day edge gasoline out is the pre-

, ferred transportation fuel.Rising fuel prices have triggered a. renaissance of industrial

wood use. Traditionally, industry used wood to generate steampower, make charcoal, and smelt metal. As in bomes, wood'suse in industry declined during the era of cheap fossil fuels, buthas grown dramatically since 1973. In 1966 wood-fired boilersrepresented a negligible percentage of total industrial boilersales in the United States. By 1975 they represented 5 percent,of the total. As of 1980 more than 2,000 large industrial wood-fired boilers were in use and many thousands more providedenergy for smaller'operations.19

Logically enough, the forest products industry has led indus-try's return to wood. In the United States and Canada energy-intensive pulp and paper plants consume more petroleum thanany other manufacturing industry. In the United States theshare of the industry's energy obtained from wood wastes hasrisen to 5o percent. The largest single U.S. forest products

company, Weyerhaeuser, generates twb-thirds of itS energyfrom wood and plans to become completely eneigy self-suffi-

.

1 2

Renewable Eneray

cient by 199o. In Western Eur Ope similar trends are in force.The,giant Swedish pulp and paper industry derives 6o percentof its energy from wood scrape and pulp residue. Studies by theSwedish government indicate, the industry could become en-ergy self-sufficient and sell excess cogeneratea electricity. InCanada this trend has been assisted by the Forest IndustryRenewable Energy (FIRE) program, which will spend $288million between 1979 and 1986 on industrial grants for con-verting plants to run on wood fuel.2°

Several other inajor manufacturing facilities in heavily for-ested rural areas have also switched from oil to wood: At DowChemical Company's new industrial complex in Michigan, a.wood boiler will provide 22.5 megawatts of power at less costthan oil or gas. In North Carolina seven brick plants and sixtextile mills have converted from gai to wood. Cost savings canbe drAmatic, as a Massachusetts firm discovered when its an-nual fuel bill went from $720,00o for oil to $276,005 forwood.21

Wood's role in industry is expanding partly because newtechnologies cin gather and homogenize abundant wood resi-dues and wastes. Instead of high-qliallty wood .logs, industrycan burn the bark, branches, and diseased trees left in the wakeof timber and pulp *rations. Energy-rich "pulping liquors,"which otherwise pose a major disposal problem, can also be animportant source of industrial fuel. New truck-sized machine,sshred trees into standard, matchbox-sized chips and shootthem into waiting yaw. About 50 percent water, these heavychips are expensive to truck long distances, but their use makessense in well-wooded communities that do not have easy accessto oil or coal2

Another alternative is pelletized wood. Made from woodwaste bound together under heat and pressure, wood pelletscan be used directly in unmodified coal-fired furnaces. Denserand drier than wood chips, they can* transported economi-cally over greater distances.. In the Unlited States wood pellets

1 3

Wood Crisis, Wood Renaissavo 117

currently cost "about as much as-coal but contain only half asmuch heating value. Still, they are economical where there areno railroads to bting coal in,cheaply. Pellets are also attractiveas an industrial fuel because they give off few pollutants whtnburned.23

An older energy-conversion technolog making a comebackis wood gasification. During World Wat II 700,000 automo-biles, mainly in Europe, were powered by wood gasifiers. Un-like the gas fermented from starches and sugars, wood gas ismade by hthting wood in the presence of only small quantities,of air. Although this gas is not energy-rich enough to justifypiping long distances, it is well suited for use in gas or oil boilersor in the diesel engines widely.nsed in developing countries.Becaiise burning wood gas is considerably less polluting thanburning wood itself, wood gasifiers may become industry's first,choice among wood-use ttchnologies. Several firms have begunmarketing wood gasifiers that provide energy at mughly the .cost of price-controlled natural gas in the United States.24

Wood is also being used on a modest scale by utifities togenerate electricity. A dtility in heavily forested, sparsely popu--lated Vermont recently retrofitted two of its io-megawatt coal-fired boilers to burn woOd chips. company is also buildinga 50-megawatt plant that will burn 5 P00 tons of wood chipsa year to provide electricity for 20, homes. For fuel for thefurnace, machines will harvest and chip whole trees within aseventyfive-mile radius of the plant. The $76-million facilityis expected to generate electricity zo percent more cheaplythan a comparable coal-fired plant can.25

By far.the most ambitious effort to use wood to generateelectricity is taking place in the Philippipes. Faced with anoil-import bill that consumes over half the nation's foreignexchange, the' Philippine government has embarked on a pra,gram to build 300 megawatts of woo4-fired power plants inremote areas of the country by 1985. To insure an adequatesupply of fuel, the National Electriffcation Administration pro-

1 31


vides funding for groups of up to ten rural families to set upplantations of fast-growing leucaenaa strategy that will re-verse deforestation as well as provide energy.26

Wood's most important new use is likely to be as methancl,a clean-burning liquid fuel that automubiles, trucks, and air-craft can Use. Methanol can be produced from the cellulose inwood or grasses, which is vastly more abundant than the sugaryand starchy feedstocks used to make the ethanol found inalcoholic beverages and gasohol. Before 1930-virtually all meth-anol was made from wood. During WOrld War II Germancars ran on methanol made from coal, while Brazil's automo-bile fleet Tali dh methanol made from wood. Today most highperformance racing cars run on methanol. In 1980 almost allthe 1.4 billion -gallons of methanol produced worldwide weremade from natural gas and were used as an industrial chemicalrather than -as a fuel. In the future methanol may again beproduced frorq coal, which is easier and cheaper to do thanpnxlucing gasoline from coalthe goal of many synfuel pro-grams.27

MethanoUs produced from wood through destructive distil-lation in which wood heated in the presence of a little airdecomposes into charcoal, carbon dioxide, and hydrogen.When pressurized in the presence of catalysts these gases be-come a liquidmethanol. In contrast to ethanol production,methanol production requires little energy from externalsources since heat is generated when the feedstock is gasified:28

Estimates of methanol production costs vary widely, but theprice of the feedstock is critical to all. According to the U.S.Office of technology Assessment, wood costing $30 a ton canbe converted into methanol costing -$1.ko a gallon. Whergwood or wooci-wastes ire abundant, technology now for salecan produce a gallon of methanol for between $1 and $1.25.Adding taxes and transportation, methanol would probablyretail for between $1.5c and $2.00 a gallon. Since wood alcohol

1 3 2

Wood Crisis, Wood Renaissance , 119 '

has only about .half the energy value of an Nuivalent amountof gasoline, it is thus cost-competitive with gasoline that ccits$3 or $4 a gallon.29 .

Although this technology is widely pooved and tested, re-searchers in Brazil, Canada, the United States, and Frrce aretrying to improve significantly the efficiencies and economicsof methanol production. Scientists at the U.S. Solar EnergyResearch Institute (SERI) have doubled the amount of me-thanol obtained from a given .quantity of wood. The SERIgasifier could probably produce, methanolltfor 7o0 to 8o0 a

'3,gallon. Researchers in gyazil report other methanol technoloimprovements that can educe methanol costs comparably. Ifpilot-plant experience is duplicated in larger plants, methanolfrom wood will compete with methanol produced frorrotaturalgas.3° .

Methanol has been.little used in transportation so far be-cause it blends poorly with gasoline an'd readily corrodes rub-ber, plastic, and some metal parts of standard internal combus-tion engines. Accordingly, it has been necessary *to redesignsome engine parts, though if mass-produced these methanol-tolerant engines would cost no more than gaso 'ne eligines. Fornow methanol is being used only as a transpor 'on fuel in"captive fleets" such as city buses or company cars that operatein a circumscribed area and fill up at centralized locations.Several extensive on-the-road tests in West Germany, Califor-nia, and Brazil have demonstrated that methanol-tolerant en-gines yerform at least as well as gasoline-powered ones.31 ,

Going beyond thesesimple modifications of conventionalengines for methanol use, engineers are also designing enginesparticularly suited to methanol. The yord Motor Companyand the U.S. Solar Energy Research Institute have developeda high-compression engine that dissociates methanol into hy-drogen and carbon dioxide and achieves a fuel efficiency similarto that of a gasoline engine despite the fact that methanol only

1 3

120 Rtmewable EnerOk

has half the energy of gasoline. This new engine cduld in effecteliminate the cost differential between gasoline and meth-anol.32

The potential for replacing liquid petroleum products withmethanol in one heavily forested country, Canada, has beenexamined in detail. According to a' government-spofisoredstudy, Canada could produce over 72 billion liters_of methanolin the year z000, enough to completely replace tht 203 millionbarrels of oil now used for transporation. Although a hybridnatural gas-wood process would be most economical today,cellulose becomes the rriost economical feedstock if natural gasis priced at parity with oil. According to researchers the princi-pal constraint upon such a strategy is demand relatedanabundance 'of cheap natural gas and ample oil supplies.33

Realizing wood's energy potential fully, Of course, meanslocating wood-using systems near wood supplies and keepingsysTrem size down accordingly. Indeed, transporting wood be-yonci fifty to one hundred miles becomes prohibitively expen-sive, and a plant's size is dictated by the volume of nearby woodeven heavily forested areas can continuorisly fuel at most a50-megawatt generator. For wood alcohol, 'new, small-scale,units fill' an impoitant gap in the technology shim the largeplants that make methanol from natural gas and coal wouldrequire too much, wood to be transported too far. InternationalHarvester hopes to market a package methanol plant with anoutput of 6 million gallon a year, a tenth the skze of the typicalfossil-fuel methanol pl nt.' Factory assemb1I and trueked tothe site of use, these smaWp1fi will not entail high construc-tion costs.34

A major constraint to greater wood 'use for methanol or byindustry and utilities is uncertainty about the future price andavailability of large supplies of wood. With transportation coststhe limiting factor, a sudden surge in local demand couldstrand large users. As insurance many companies moving to

134


wood fuel are building furnaces capable of burning both coaland wood pellets."

Governments could help the methanol fuels industryemerge quickly. For starters they could purchase fleets of meth-anol-burning automobiles or offer incentives for large privatefleet owners to use methanol. California, for example, hasalready offered to buy methanol-powered cars from Ford. Suchan assured market would give forest, proaucts companies theincentive to build relatively small-sized methanol-from-woodplants near existing paper plants and sawmills.36

A Gfovi,ing Resource in Stress

The rising demand for wood energy comes at a time whenforests are rapidly being cleared to make way for agriculturalland and when demand for timber and pulp is rising. Clearly,new forest-management techniques and'policies will have to bedevised to meet demand without magnifying environmentalstresses. Yet large blocks of Virgin forest, the lands replantedfor the pulp and timber harvest, and poorly managed or defor-ested lands, which together make up a quarter of the earth'sland surface, each hold surprisingly 8ifferent potentials forstretching and saving the resource base.

The most economically sound way to increase wood energyuse without sacrificing traditional forest products is to removemore logging wastes from commercial forests, andmore im-portantto increase replanting and improve management onsmall parcels of degraded forest land. In contrast, cutting re-mote virgin fOrests or greatly intensifying the harvest fromcommercial forest lands should be limited both on economicand ecological grounds. Relying on the wrong forests for energycould wreak far-reaching ecological. harm. .

Virgin forests in remote regions make up the biggest shareof the global forest inventory. But their potential as a source

1 35"

122 Renewable Energy 4,0si

of wood energy is small. Tropical rain 'forests in the Amazonfia§in, Central and West Africa, and Southeast Asia Are shrink-in rapidly as trees are loted for timber. Refore-station prospects in these areas are not bright since the treesthemselves, rather than the soil, contain much of the rainforests' nutrients. While dispersed tropical populalions face nofuelwood crisis, these remote expanses are being eyed by goy-

' ernment energy planners for large-scale energy schemes. Yetcaution is the watchword. No more biomass should be removedfrom most of these lands for energY purposes until other pres-sures wane and the ecology of tropical rain forests is betterunderstood.37

In the northern hemisphere the vast forests covering muchof the Soviet Union, northern Europe, Canada,and the UnitedStates have actually expanded slightly over the last half centuryas some farmland returned to forest. Although this resource isvast, much of it is located far from potential markets. Then too,forest regeneration in the thin soils and cold of Siberia, Alaska,and northern Canad? can take up to a hundred years, nialcingthese forests practically nonrenewable.38

Commercial forest lands that supply lumber for contructioiand pulp for paper making represent a more likely source of.wood energy. The most readily available source of wood energyis the vast quantity of branches, bark, and roots left in the waieof lumber and pulp harvesting. Thus, the rising demand forlumber and pulp could actually increase the amount of wOodavailable for fuel by motivating forest managers to thin slow-giowing,'"diseased, or otherwise unmarketable trees for use inenergy conversion. In the United States, the Office of Technol-ogy Assessment estimates, wood containing the equivalent of2.5 percent of U.S. annul energy use is left to rot or is burnedat bgging sites during lumber and pulp harvests. Were lumber

, and nplp consumption to double as projected for the year 2000;the amount of wood cut but left unused in the nation's forestswould increase by 2.5 to 5 times.39

1

136


At what env ironmental costs could these forest residues beremoved? And what would the benefits be? In the short-term,clearing the land of dead limbs and branches improves somewildlife habitats, reduces the outbreak of forest fires, and makestree planting easier. But over the long-term, soil productivityWill suffer if the limbs, leaves, and roots that contain most ofthe forest system's nutrients are removed. Where clear-cuttingis practiced, removing logging residues accelerates the erosionof the topsoil upon which ill forest life depends.40

Removal of logging residues for energy use will clear the airsome. Currently, branches, leaves, and stumps of harvestedtrees are often collected into piles and set on fire. Smoke fromthese open air fires contributes heavily to air pollution in suchdiverse locations 'as Malaysia, Colombia, the northwesternUnited States, and eastern Canada. Compressed into pellets orgasified, such logging residues could be cleanly and produc-tively burned.

Removing dead trees and periodically clearing the brushcould make herbicides largelY unnecessary, too. As it is, timberand pulp operations, particularly in the United States andCanada, depend increasingly on the aerial spraying of herbi-cides to kill species that compete with commercially valuablespecies for light, soil, and water. What repeated herbicideapplications will do to forests, no one can say for sure. Butseveral widely used phenoxy herbicides (such as 2, 4, 5-T, and.Silvex) are thought to cause cancer, birth, defects, and otherhealth problems in. people.41

As for productivity, intensifying silviculture on commercialforest lands can expand the supply of lumber, fiber, and fuel.Large pulp and paper companies have begun geneticallymanipulating trees and Practicing short-rotation tree farmingto raise output. Scientists at Weyerhaeuser predict that treeproduction could be doubled if the 'genetic techniques success-fully employed in agric,plture are used. In another intensifica-tion effort, U.S. Forest Selvice scientists-have increased wood

,

,ray

r

124 Rene141e Energy

yields of poplai three to five times beyond those of wild timberstands by planting trees close together and harvesting themwhen they start to interfere with the growth of adiacent.trees.Sweden, whose forests are among th4 world's Most intensivelymanaged, hailaunched a broad investigation of machine-har-vestable species that -grow rapidly and regenerate without re-

f?-.Although most advanced tree farming is being one by tim-

ber and pulp coMpanies to Ripply their traditional markets,foresters in several countries are also at work on fast-rotationtree farming for energy. That-hoth groups ore at work is impor-tant since timber and pulp-oriented silviculture is only partiallyapplicable to energy silviculture; The energy content of plantsis seldom rnallinized in the effott to increase fiber quality andWood strength.'"

Thsmost important constraint on the general prospects for,enere plantations is cdst. If lumber and pulp sales are notcombined with fuelwood sales, harvesting even fast-growingtrees for fuel use is uneconomical. However, if mechanicalharvesters can be tailored to given species and if geneticimprovement continues, energy plantations Will become moreeconomic. But the calculation may be moot: As lumber andpaper grow more expensive, multiple-use silviculture becomesmore appealing still.'"

Another way to increase forest productivity is to plant high-yielding exotic tree species. Indeed', to..accele.rate forest re-growth, scientists , have searched, the earth for faster growing,hardier, and more productive tree species. Among the several ,

dozen promising trees located, Eucalyptus is planted. most ,

wide)), throughout the world for fuelwood production. Thevarious species of Eucalyptusall native to Australiahaveadapted to environments as diverse as the cool highlands of theAndes and the moist equatorial lowlands of Amazonia. Itsadaptability, drought resistance, rapid growth, and rdgenera-

, tive ability explain its popularity. In Brazil, where annual yield*

13 d

Wood Crisis, WoOdlenaissance 125

average 12 tons per hectare, Eucalyptus is cultivated for char-coal and for methanol production. There and elsewhere, Euca-lyptus cultivation is likely to expand diamatically since manu-facturing 3oo,000 gallons of methana a day, for example,requires planting 72,000 hectares of Eucalyptus each year forfeedstock.45

Next in importance among the species with widespread po-tential is the leucaena tree. Leucaenawith such regional ali-ases as the Hawaiian giant, koe haole, or ipil-ipilis a nativeOf Mexico. One of the world's fastest-growing trees, it can growzo meters tall in six years. A leucaena plantation can annuallyyield up to 50 tons of per hectare, five times the averageof cultivated pin emperate regions. Leucaena's rootnodules also repleni with nitrogena boon in agro-forestry schemes. In §eve outheast Asian countries, it pro-

' vides shade for coffee and cacao groves. In northern Australia,leucaena is intercropped with pangola grass to make nutritious'fixIdér for cattle."

Tree plantation sthemes do entail potentially high ecologicalcosts. The continuous reirjoval of trees chosen for fuel valuewill probably deplete soil nutrients mine rapidly than tradi-tional silviculture combined with residue removal does. Inshort-cycle energy plantations, cutting takes place every five toten years (compared to thirty to one hundred years in tradi-tional commercial forests). Then, too, while the mitrient drainis minimal when stems and leaves are left on the ground, inshort-rotation energy plantations the younger and more miner-al-rich trees are removed.47

Monocultural (one-species) forests also tend to, need extrapesticides to combat the diseases and insects usually held incheck by the more complex ecology of natural forests. Mono-culturakfuel plantations also fail to Trovide habitats for the,thousands of plants and animals that inhabit natural forests.Simply removing dead wood from forests takes its toll on thelifces of owls and woodpeckers, the natural enemies of rodents

13d

1?,6 Renewable Energy

and harmful insecis. Such birds nest in cavities of old or dam-aged trees that are prime targets for woodchip machines andfor firewood scavengers. Southern Brazil's pine tree plantations

as. have been called "ornithological deserts" by FJelmut Sick, aleading Brazilian bird authority.48,. ..

Both ecological and economic factors point toward the supe-riority qf multiple-use, multiple-species forestry over one basedon monoculture. Much more research ig needed to designforestry practices capable of meeting rising dernan'cls for tim-.her, pulp, and energy on a sustainable basis. Until this knowl-edge is obtained and put to use, energy should be extractedfrom the world's virgin forests or tree plantations only cau-tiously.

Reforesting the tarth

For the foreseeable future, the most important wood resourcechallenge will be to plant trees and better manage forest landsin populated areas. Both where firewood shortages loom andOhere wood use is rising, trees ale being cut but not replanted,used but not cared for. In populated rural areas near markets,soil erosion and flooding are the upshot. The failure to plantand care for trees in these fertile lands stands as a major barrierto the widespread use of wood fuel.

While economic and environmental forces limit the use ofremote virgin forests and commercial tree fauns, the barriersto greater wood harvests cloier to home are social and political.While many wilderness areas are publicly owned and largecorporations own most tree farms, ownership of those neg-lected forests is distributed among millions of people,few ofwhom see trees as an important resource and fewer of whomhave the skills to husband the forest. Where the landless poorrely on wood, those who go to the expense of planting treeshave no assurance that they will ever harvest them. New insti-tutionsvillage woodlots, forest-owner cooperatives, and tech-


nical extension servicesare the keys to turping these ne-glected lands into permanent wood fuel resources.

Before the fuelwood problem became widely recognized inthe 1'970s, many developing countries had forestry agenciesthat managed forest lands and repfaced trees cut down fortimber and pulp uses. Traditioval forestry of this sort focusedon the commercial exploitation of the forests for export, noton the wood needs of the rural poor. Some countries alsoplanted trees around villages where fuelwobd needs pressedhardest. But with few exCeptions, these measures did not haltthe loss of woodlands. Newly planted trees seldom remaihed inthe ground long enough to mature. They were either torn fromthe ground by desperate villagers and used for cooking or eatenby livestock. Gradually, foresters realized that villagers had totake part in tree-planting efforts if trees were eyer to take root.

oe Now traditional forestry practices are being supplemented by"commugity forestry," which emphasizes village participationin the planting of small woodlots to meet local fuel, forage, andtimber needs.49

Community forestry breaks with traditional "production for-estry" by emphasizing the use cif trees for multiple purposesand the. integration of tree growing with agriculture. Whereastraditional forestry concentrates on monocultures and closedforests, community forestry tackles chronic shortages of food,fuel, and jobs. Yet this approach is not wholly modern. Inter-cropping trees with crops is a traditional practice in some partsof the Third World. In Malaysia and Indonesia tall trees valu-able for wood are intercrOpped with coffee, tea, and spicebushes that thrive in shade. In densely populated Java 81percent of the fuelwood comes from trees planted on themargins of agricultural land. Variants of agro-forestry includethe Combretum/rice culture in Southeast Asia, the giim Ara-bic treefallow sYstem in Sudan and Ethiopia, and the coffee/-laurel 'system used in Central America. Elsewhere, treesplanted along field boundaries, and irrigation channels break

,. .


i the wind, and supply fuelwood. In some traditiona agro-fores-try systeMs, trees and foed crops contribute essential nitrogento the soil."

Over the last decade community forestry has made a nameand place for itself. 'Dozens of national governments, interna-tional assistance agencies, and appropriate technology groupsbave started reforestation schemes -with differing degees oflocal participation, inagration'with agriculture, and employ-ment of exotic species. Some ,such initiatives have enjoye4complete suceess, others total failure. In any event, refersingglobal deforestation means applying the lessons from theseprograms on a vastly larger scale."

China and South Korea have most successfully mobilizedvillagers to plant' and caxe for enough trees to make a differ-ence. Despite admitted false starts and regional Setbacks, Chi-nese officials tell visitors that tree cover in China has grownfrom 5 percent in 1949 to 12.7 percent in 1978, an increaseof 72 million hectares. Outside observers with less informationbut less reason to exaggerate estimate that between 30 and '6omillion hectares haveleen reforested. Either .way, the accom-plishment is herculeana tribute to strong central politicalsupport and mass mobilization of village communities.52

Smaller but more rapid and thorough has been SouthKorea's reforestation effort. Before 1973 all attempts at refor-estation had failed. Then a new approach emphasizing local

1 participation was launched. Village committees with locallyelected leaders were set up and charged with getting private

/ landowners to plant trees on their lands. Since 1976 some40,000 hectares per year have been planted, and by 1980 one-third of the national land area was covered with young trees.53

Village-based tree-planting efforts in India have been lesssuccessful. In Gujarat an ambitious reforestation effort has metwith only partial success. By 1978 about 6,000 of the state's17,000 kilometers of roads and canals were lined, with newforests planTd by hired labor, but the state's attempts to imple-

142 ,

- I

-

s 1

4,


ment the social forestry goats set forth by the Indian govern-ment in 1973 have been less rewarding. Efforts to establishwood fuel lots in Africa have fared even more poorly deSpitethe critical shortage of firewood many African nations face. Inone World Bankfunded project to plant 5oo hectares of treesin Niger, the villagers pulled the seedlings out and alloweduncontrolled grazingin newly planted areas.54

Whether village woodlot programs work depends heavily onhow well the social structure works. In Korea and China thedifference between one villager's wealtb and another's usuallyis small. In most Indian villages ea,ste and economic divisionsare great, and cross-caste cooperatjon is rare. ,

Land-ownership patterns also affect the success of villagewoodlots in many areas. Semimigratory Nigerian tribes mustleave woodlots unsupervised 'much of the year Elsewhere, thenationalization of Ind has weakened the villagers' sense ofresponsibility for *the soil and their claim to the fruits of theirlabor. In Tanzania, where the land became state-owned in1963, farmers do not know if they will reap tree crops eight toten years hence. In Nepal the government denationalized someforest lands once it became clear that,nationalization had con-tributed to the abandonment of dillage woodlots. The reluc-tance of Cujarat's villagers to use woodlots has been attributedto uncertainties about who confrols, the village commons. Thecentral government directed the commons. to be used for wood-lots, but villagers fear that thegovernment may authorize someother use ,before the trees mature.55

The importance of social cohesion cannot be ignored invillage reforestation projects either. Although ahributing 'theChinese aid South Korean accomplishments to the "Confu-cian tradifion" is simplistic, this explanation does contain anelement of truth. Tanzania's woallot program is modeled afterthe Korean one, but tribal affiliations in Tanzania hinder com-mon action for such a nontraditional activity as forestry. Inmany wood-short areas of the Sabel, tribes have only recently,

143

130 Renewable Eneagy

and with great difficulty, given 'up pastoralism for sedentaryagriculture. In such communities social and cultural reorienta-tionno matter h ifficultmay be necessary before wood-. ,lots take root.5

Rising a reness of the fuelwood crisis in the developingworld has mbtiated a few national governments to act. India'snew fiVe-year p an for 1981-1985 cornmits 1.5 billion rupees(about $165 million) to village energy plantations and biogasunits, a rise from almost nothing in the previous five-year plan.These outlays are the first step in reaching India's goal for theyear 2000using biogas and fuelwood to replace all the oilused to power pumps and agricultural machinery, 50 percentof the kerosene used for cooking, and a quarter of the oil andcoal used to generate low to medium temperature heat inindustry. 57

The shift in emphasis toward forestry projects aimed atfuelwood production, agro-forestry, and watershed protection.has also been marked at the World Bank. Although it budgetedalmost nothing in the early 1970s for these aclivities the Bankwill loan about a billion dollars between 1980 and 1985. Farmore is needed to establish adequate village wood fuel schemes,but the World Bank loans will launch critical efforts in variousnations and ,Climates.P3

Increased suppoit and attention;notWithstanding, r eforesta-tion efforts in the deVeliipink world still lag.far behinddieed.Experts who met in Rome in .10.1 to advise the United Na-tions on world 'energy.,needs priijected that worldwide refore-station efforts would have to increase by a factor of ten. Thegroup estimated that Afghanistan and Ethiopia needed to in-creak yeplanting to fifty tirries-current levels; India, _fifteen`times; and Nigeria, ten times. The Club' du Sahel estimatesthat tree planting must increase in Africa's Sahel by fifty timesto meet the needs of people there over the next twenty yeirs.Globally, the group called for.spending to dsiubleears to $1 billion-anntially, with roughly equal amounts corn-

1 44

"C


ing from theWorld Bank, bilateral aid, and developing coun-tries themselves.59

In much of the Third World, extensive Planting could checkwidespread and serious ecological problems. Floods and erosionfollow deforestation as day the night. Topsoil accumulates assilt and mud in river beds, water overflows hanks, inundatingcities and fields. In 1981 severe flooding in China's Sichuan-proiince left 753 people dead and 1.5 million..homelessdisturbing casualties of deforestation in the Yangtze Riverbasin's upper reaches. The accelerated sedimentation of reser-voirs is also drasticallY shortening the useful lives of dozens ofdams in developing countriesseventeen in India alone.60

As in developing countries, the most impintant under-utilized part of the wood resource base in the United States andCanada is in the hands of small landowners. Currently, 58percent of U.S. forestlands is owned by about 3' million smallprivate landholders, few of whom treat their trees as an

146,contimically significant resource. Moreover, smAl privatel2Wholdings are concentrated in the. East, where potentialmarkets are greatest and growth potential highest. Since theaverige forest parcel is shrinking-as old farms and estates arebroken up, few landholders could wrest enough profit fromwood sales to justify their duffing, selling, and replanting theirtrees. Nor are many likely to remain owners long enough toreap the benefits of investing in timber stand improvement.According to a recent forest induftry estimate, only one 9ut ofnine privately owned acres of noninduStrial forest harvested inthe United States is being purposefully regenerated. Insteadthe rising demand for wood fuel is taking its toll primarily onpoorly managed lands. In New England manrforest landown-ers cut the wrong trees so as to makea quick profita surefirerecipe for a decline in productivity.61

In North AmeriCa the key to.maxirilizing fOrest productivitymay be creating forest cooperatives composed of private land-holders who hire a pmfessional forester tci manage their lands

1t4 5

Li14'

132 ftenewable Energy . .

andt-to oversee the thinning, cutting, and sale of wood fiom

many .contiguous forest parcels. So far, the 165 tree coopera-tives operating in the U.S. have dramatically increased theearnings and productivity of previously neglected lands.62

Another prototypical initiative with promise is the NewEngland Fuelwood Pilot Project. Under this two-year-old U.S.Department of Agriculture program, landowners receive bothtechnical and financial help in evaluating tree stands, con-structing access roads, and marking trees for cutting. Fot,a netcost to government of $1.4 million, the program has Ittught20,000 acies under better management and has displaced theneed for 20 barrels of fuel oil each year for every acre oi ,

forestland treated=some 400,000 barrels overall. Expandingthis program ,to cover all small private nd parcels would cost4aless than $5o million a year, a bargain nsidering the payoff.63

..

The Wood Energy Prospect ,

Already high, wood energy use will almost certainly rise overthe next two decades. In industiial Countries the use of wood(is likely to increase by about 5o percent by the year 2000 toapproximately io exajoules. Fuelwood use in developing coun-tries will increase more slowly since demand is already pressingagainst supply in many regions: Use will probably increase byno more than one-third over the next twenty years to 38 ex-ajoules. In all, global fuelwood use will reach 'around 48 ex-ajoules in 2000, cotnpared to 35 exajoules today.64

The question more important than demand is supply. Howwill a 40 percent increase be achieved? With extensive refore-station, fuelwood use could continue upward after 2000, reach-ing the global potential of over ioo exajoules by mid-century.Without such prograMs, fuelwood use could plummet after theyear 2000 as the rtsource base begins to erode.

The brighter prospect, of course, is wise management. Prop-,erly tended, commercial and'small forestlands could probably

146


yield three times as much fuelwood without resorting to short-rotation or to cutting virgin forests. Yet productivity must beraised gradually. A sudden rise,in demand for wood for fuelthrough crash programs to accelerate wood-to-methanol con-

..yersion or a boom in the use of inefficient wood stowcouldtrigger widespread deforestation and send timber and pulpprices soaring. And whether technological improvements intree breeding and a more sophisticated understanding of nutri-ent cycles will allow further sustainable increases remains to beseen.

These short-term imperatives to plant more trees coujd inthe years ahead be joined by a global environmental one. In-creased use of wood for energy could take on added appeal asthe search for a tcinic to the carbon diOxide (CO2) releasedfrom fossil fuels becomes more urgent Because trees absorbCO2 and release oxygen, they are one of the few carbon sinkshumans can quickly alterimportant, since a net increase inthe standing stock of wood could slow down the "greenhouseeffect." PhySicist Freeman Dyson estimates that fast-growingpoplar planted over an area the size of. North America couldabsorb enough CO2 to halve the annuat build-up. The green-ing of Earth may thus emerge as a priority of governmentsproperly fearful of disruptive climatic change.65

How this wood is used will be as important as how much ofit is used and how it is obtained. A concerted effort is neededto increase the efficiency with which wood is hurned, especiallyin developing countries where the amount of usable energyobtained from wood could be tripled by substituting woodgasifiers, tharcoal, and efficient cook stoves for open fires. Thereservoir of energy literally going up in smoke in countless openfires .is far greaterand more cheaply harnessablethan theentire consumption of fossil fuels in many developing coun-tries. Modernizihg, not replacing, wood use is a far more criti-cal national goal for most developing countries than, the put,chase of more nuclear power plants, oil refineries, or coal

.4t

147 ,


mines. Such modernization could take pressure Off dwindling.forests and give reforestation a chance to catch up with de-mand. The pull of markqt forces, the availability of credit forsmall manufacturers and users, technical eitension anddemon-

: stration, and mass education campegns will all be needed toaccomplish this transformation of rural wood-burning prac-tices.

By the same logic, wood should eventually be used in its /most productive form, probably methanol. Even with improve-ments in combuition efficiency, direct combustion is likely tobecome relatively less economical for heating and electicitygeneration than solar collectors or photovoltaics. And bloga4and wood gas could replace wood in cooking and small indus,try. Of course, the timing of the shift away from direct comhus-tion, and toward the greater _use of liquid fuels will vary bycountri, and depend on haw fast oil prices increase, but will,probably be under way.by the logos in most countries. Becausemost developing countries use so little petroleum and use somuch wood inefficiently, they could make the shift to meth-anottpowered transpdrtation systems first. These countrieshave only small fleets of gasoline-burning automobiles to re-trofit, and most of their trucks and buses burn diesel fuel,

which makes it easier to adjust them to use .methand.The impact of such a strategy on the energy picture of one

developing country, India, reveals the strategy's potential. Ac-cording to Amulya Reddy, if biogas digesters were used to meetdomestic cooking needs, some 130 million tons of wood cur-rently burned for cooking could be converted into enoughmethanol and wood gas to powef all trucks, buses, and irriga,tion pumps in India. Since producing wood gas and charcoalinvolves destructive distillation of woodthe first step in me-thanol productionthese cleaner, more efficient forms ofwood use pave the way for methanol. And since two-thirds ofthe oil, India imports is used in trucks and buses, the largearrioUnts of money currently leaving the country to finance oil

148


imports could be diVerted to the construction of methanolplants.66

In some industrial nations, the prospects for a wood alcoholstrategy are also bright. While Europe, Japan, and Australia donot have enough forestland to supply substantial quantities of

.wood energy, the United States, Canada, and the Soviet Uniondo. The energy needs of the large automobile fleets in theUnited 'States and Canada are gargantuan, but long-term po-tential is also great. By 2020 these countries could derive asmuch as 15 exajoules of wood energy in the form of methanol.

This ability to use wood alcohol to supplant increasinglyexpensive petroleum links the problems of the rural and urbansectors. Indeed, solving urban energy problems will requiretransforming rural energy-use patterns. Efforts by some ThirdWorld countries such as Brazil, Kenya,.or the Philippines toignore the subsistence sector's energy crisis and to produceelectricity or liquid fuels from wood could well exacerbate thefar more serious rural energy crisis and prove uneconomical tobobt. As Gandhi said, the Third World will march into thetwentieth century on the back of a transformed rural sector ornot at all.

Despite wockl's potential to alleviate societies' dependenceon scarce petroleum, wood has been passed over in the energypolicy debates of the 197os. In the northern industrial coun-tries the wood renaissance of the late 197os has gone largelyunnoticed by energy policy makers, most of whom omit wood

liom,national energy-use inventories. This myopia is particu-larly startling in the United States where in 1980 wood sup-

'plied more energy than nticlear power, which has received $47billion' in government subsidies. In the developing couhtriesnational nlanners took note of wood only when the mismatchbetween demand and supply gave rise to widespread hardship.Today it is obvious to those who look that wood should befront-and-center on the energy agenc18 of miny nations

. throughodt the world.67

149

Growing Fuels: Energyfrom Crops and Waste

,A. mong renewable energy. sources, fuels from plantsbio-massmost defy generalizations. Beyond Wood, hun-

dreds of other diverse plant species can be converted to manydifferent energy forms using a variety of technologies. Some

biomass energy sources are as old as history, while technologies

for using :others are emerging at the frontiers of advancedresearch. The technical 'feasibility, economics, and eriviroil-mental,impacts of using some biomass resources are commonknowledge. A shroud of uncertainty, hangs over others.

In one way, though, all biomass sources are alike. Noneneeds expensive manmade collection systems to gather thesun's energy or costly storage systems to compensate for the

150

Growing Fuels: Eitergy from Crops and Waste 137

intermittent nature of solar radiation. Moreover, all are veisa-

tile. Biomass feedstocks can be processed into liquid, gaseous,

and solid fuels..Widely used today, biomass energy promises to be even

more widely used in the iture. In the rural Third World,wood, crop residues, and diing'are the major energy sources.Urban refuse containing biomass supplies energy in many cit-

ies. And some energy supplies are obtained by converting wasteto methane and growing crops 'esPecially to produce alcohols

All energy contained in plants comes from the sun. Plants

convert about z percent of the energy in light into chemical

energy via photosynthesis. In photosynthesis ,plants absorb at-mospheric carbon dioxide, free the oxygen, and build living

matter with the carbon. In the most biologically active i per-cent of the earth's land area, plants every year captureand storeabout 530 exajotiles of energy, '5o percent more than annual,world energy use. This energy is the foundation of the foodchain that sustains life on earth. It can also be tapped for Other

human uses.1How much of this eherg,y can be harnessed economicallyand

safely can be determined only by research and a close examina:tion of the earth's biomass resources.

The Ethanol Booni

Theoil crisis of the 1970s friggered a global scrareble to find-

new sources of liquid transportation fuel for the more than 400million cars, trucks, and tractors in use worldwide today. Sev-

eral governments began underwriting ethae7irduced fromcorn and sugar &lops. The two" largest efforts, those in Braziland the United States, have concentrated on producingethanol to blend with gasoline and sell as "gasohol." (Ethanol

or ethyl alcohol is found in all alcoholic beverages. Attempt's'to use pure ethanol and oil crops on a commercial scale are

afoot in several countries. Yet alcohol fuels contribute signifi-, 'e

151

' 138 kenewable Energy

candy to the energy supply equation in only i few nations.Their wider use awaits improved economics, 'bore efficientconversion techniques, and cheaper feedstoCks.2

The use of ethanol as a motor fuel is almost as oktas theautomobile itself Fearihg ansimpending oil sh'oi6ge and hop-ing tb stimulate demand for farm products, a:utomobile pioneerHenry Ford' promoied gasohol during the early twentieth cen-tury During the Great Depression the Chemurgy Movement,a group of scientists 'and farmers trying to buoy depressedagricultural prices by developing industrial markets for crops, ,.

'also favored alcohol fuels..Use of ethanol as a gasoline extenderwas widespreati in the U. S. Midwest, with more than 250dealers of so-talled "Agrol" in Nebraska alone in t935. Duringthe 1930s and 19405 ethanol-gasoline blends were used in morethan forty countries, but falling prices and abundant petroleumsupplies wiped 'Out- the nascent alcohol fuels industry, afterWorld. War H.

The use of ethanol as a gasoline additive particularly appealsto oil-importing nations because it can immediately reducegasoline consumption. Doing so requires no =for retooling ofthe automobile engine, no new fuel-stora and distributionsystem. Blending ethanol with gasoline also. maxim' es theenergy value of both fuels since ethanol boosts gasoline's oc-tane level. Mixed with ga,soline, a gallon of ethanol providesalmost twice the energy that straight alcohol would.

Tart' of ethanol's appeal is the established character of al-cohol-production echnologythe foundation of the alcohcilicbeverage induit . Ethanol (ethyl alcohol) is produced eitherdirectly from gar by fermentation or from starches that arefirst converted to sugar Sand then fermented. Ethanol can be ,

derived from three main categories of food crbps. sugar crops,such as sugarcane, sugar b,eets, and sweet sorghum, root crops,mainly cassava (manioc), and all major cereals. The cbst of thefeedstock is usually the largest cost in ethanol production.4

The prospect of substituting alcohol for petroleum has gen-

e

152 .

Crowing Fuels: Energy from Crops and Waste 139

crated intense debate about tbe "net energy balance" of corn-alcohol production: Some critics of alcohol fuels argue thatproducing alcohol requires more energy than the alcohol con-tains. Part of the confusion arises from a failure to distinguishbetween the energy yield and the liquid fuel yield. The U.S.

Department of Energy found that producing ioo Btu's ofethanol from corn required io Btu:s-7-44 Btu's to grow thecoin and 65 Btu's to produce the alcohol from it. If the energyvalue of the byproduct, distillers grain (a fermentation residuethat can be fed to livestock) is added in, there is a .slight netenergy gain of 5 iiercent. If alcohol is produced in an oil-fueleddistillery, however, there is no net gain in liquid fuel. But if thedistillery is powered by coal, wood, or solar energy, then at least2.3 gallons of liquid fuel would be produced for every 'gallonconsumed. In short, only properly designed alcohol productionbased on abundant solid fuels, waste heat or renewable re-sources will displace liquid fuels from petroleum.5

Technological advances dould well improve the efficiencyand thus the economics of a1co1io1 production. By far the mostenergy-intensive aspect of alcohol production involves separat-ing alcohol fçon t water through distillation. The prospect ofusing membra es tha permit the passage of alcohol.but notwater has exqitd alcohol scientists. 'Dr. Harry Gregor of Co-lumbia University calculates that by using special plastic mem-branes producers uld bring down the energy cost Of recover-ing pure alcohol from fermentation liquids to about 0.6 percentof the alcohol fueNalue. Other investigators-are exploring theuse of dessicants, solvents, and molecular sieves as alcoholpurifiers.6

Besides investigating new ways to improve traditional sugar--to-ethanol teChnology, scientists are refining technologies toconvert cellulose intd ethanol. In principle, thiS is easy enoughsince cellulose is nothing but complex sugars bound togetherby a substance called lignin. Cracking lignin's hold on thessugars is not easy, however:One very inefficient chemical pro-

111

140 Renewab1e Emergy

cess, acid hydrolysis-, is used in fifty Soviet plants to conVertwood chips into sugars that are fedto protein-rich microorgan-isms that are in turn fed to cattle. Use Ot acid hydrolysis toproduce sugar for fermentation to alcohol is not currently litnomical, but would become so if conversion technologies wereimproved. Other Cellulose-to-ethanol technologies employing

bacteria, viruses, and enzymes are being scrutinized by Brazil-ian, American, and Canadian scientists.7

Among the counCrieS producing ethanol for fuel, Brazil isthe unquestioned leader. Forced taimport.85 percent of its oil, -

Brazil launched its akohol fuels program in 1975. The goal isto attain ,self-sufficiency in automotive fuel by the century'send. Between 1975 and 198o alcohol production leapt from641 million liters to almost 4 billion liters (13 billion gallons),and the number of alcohol distilleries jumped from 25 to 300.Aided by goyernment subsidies and cheap loans for car pur-chasers, the Brazilian subsidiary of Volkswagen produced over2-60,000 automobiles designed to run on pure alcohol. In all,over $z billion in government subsidies have been invested inalcohol production and consumption, Much of it raised fromtaxes on petroleum products. By 1985 Brazil hopes to be,pro-ducing 10.7 billion liters of fuel. alcoholA

Although the primary goal of the Brazilian alcohol fuels Olanis to reduce oil imports, the government also hopes that the

,program will create jobs, reduce the flow of people to the cities,improve income distribution, and promOte a more regionallybalanced economy. According to World pank estimates, theprogram will create. about 450,000 job's 'between 1980 ,and

,I989. A sore point, however, is that the plantation-style c-ultiva-Hon of sugarcabe and tbe construction of large distilleries mayhave exacerbated alreidy unconseionable income disparities in

, many rural areas. (Brazil'i richest fifth haethirty-six times moreincome than the poorest fifth.)9

Brazil's alcohol fuels program.could also drive up food prices.'Accor4hg to a 1975 World Bank study one-third of all Brazil-

154

Crowing Fuck Energy from Crops and Waste 141

ians have barely adequate nutrition. If Brazil were to achieveself-sufficiency in automotive fuels through sugarcane alcoholproduction, 2 percent of Braiil (an area halE as lirge as all

cultivated cropland "in the country) woilldiiave to be plantedin sugarcane. Producing io:7 hillion liters ol alcohol by 1985will require the eqUivalent of io Percent of Bra' zil's cropland.Already at leist 6o.o,000 acres once devoted to rice, wheat, andpaitures have been planted in sugarcane.1°

Brazil's alcohol fuels program also faces economic problems.Originally intended to-raise depressed sugar prices and exporteamirrgs, the _program may in one sense have succeeded. Bygenerating new demand it brought sugar prices up from $20oper ton in 1975 to ardund $800 in early 1981. At 'this price,exporting sugar and buying oil makes moie economic sensethan producing,alcohol to displace imported oil.I.1

Another factor at Play in Brazil's alcohol fuels venture ispollutiOn. For every liter of alcohol produced, Brazil's distiller-iercreale 13 liters of "swill," a toxic organic pollutant. If Brazilmeets its 1985 ethanol goal, distilleries will produce 35 billiongallons of swill, double- the amount of sewage Brazirs 126

people produce. Because _substantial irivestment intreatment facilities may be needed to av-okl severe watetollu:tion, many experts doubt that Brazil can reach the ambitious _

11985. 041.12 , .

Brazil's government jas alreidy apProved eriough distilleryprOjecis to produde 8.3 billion liters Of alcohol, but will therebe enough sugarcane to...support production at thai leVel? As, of1980, 2.5 million hectares of sugarcane were under tUltivation,

but-4.5 million iriort will be needed, to meet the 1985 goal.13The United States also has been driven by heavy depen-

dence on foreign oil to-embark upon In 'ambitious alcohol fuelsprogram.. In 1978 every gallon of gasohol containing alCoholfrom nonpetrOleum sources was declared exempt from-the 40federal gasoline excise tax: Twenty-two g.ates also partially orwholly exernPled gasohol from state gasoline taxes. In some the

.155

112 Renewable.Energy

combination of federal apd state tax incentives exceeds $r pergallon for alcohol used as automotive fuel. In 1980 Presidentcarter, announced a goal of producing two billion gallons ofethanol by 1985. Congress then took the initiative a step far-ther, proclaiming a goal of ro billion gallons by 1990. If the1990 goal is met, alcohol will account for just under ro per-cent of the 1 ro billion gallons of gasoline consumed in theU.S. in 1980, a quantum increase from the less than roo mil-lion gallons of alcohol produced in 1979. By late 1980some 2,500 retail dealers 'were selling gasohol. In 1974 nonedid.14

The U.S. alcohol fuels program has centered on corn:basedethanol, largely because corn is so abundant and the farm lobbyis so powerful. The U.S. farm community sees ethanol fuel asa way to increase demand for corn and, hence; corn prices. Yetcorn has other highly valued-uses and represents only a tinyshare of the U.S. biomass potential. According to U.S. Officeof Technology Assessment estimates, ethanol from all grainsprobably cannot supply 'more than 6 percent of the biomassenergy potentially available in 2000. Yet ethanol from corn hasabsorbed well over half the federal funds earmarked for energy-to-biomass projects.15

Growing interest in -alcohol -fuels in the U.S. has kindled alively debate over the relative efficiencies of small on-farm andlarge centril plalt production of alcohol. Large plants seenibest suited to make the final,,highly energy-intensive distilla-

,) tion of i 60- or 180-proof hydrous (water-laden),alcohA into the200-proof waterless variety blended with gasoline. But trans--porting enough feedstocks for large plants is expensive, andmammoth operations are vulnerable to drought-induced short-

, ages and high prices. Smaller On-farm plants could handle theinitial processing, but unfortunately the principal alcohol sub-sidyexemption from the federal gasoline.excise taxis avail-

. able only to fanners who sell their product on the market.

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Crowing Fuels: Energy from Crops and.Waste 143

Some 95 percent of fuel ethanol produced in 1980 thus camefrom six companies, and thousands of on-farm producers, gotno federal subsidy for their efforts.16

,If the Brazilian alcohol fuels program threatens the)looc-1

supply of Brazil's Poor, the U.S. program could send the pricesof grain and grain-fed meat up all over the world. Since mid-century, the U.S. and Canada have increasingly dominated the.world grain market. 'While distillers grain is a protein-richcattle feed, the feed market can absorb only so much of thisbyProducf. Then too, most of the corn's calories are lost inalcohol production. Economist Fred Sanderson of the Brook-ings Institution predicts that ethanol production above 4 bil-lion gallons a year will drive up corn prices. If gasoline pricesin the United States reach $3 a gallon, as they have already inmany countries, distillers could afford to pay.$6 per bushel forcorn without subsidies and credits. At these prices, U.S. corna.staple of human consumption in some parts of the worldand a source of animal feed in many otherswould more thandouble in price.17

bi:pite ifs immense popularity in the corn belt, grain-basedgasohol is unlikely to radically alter the U.S. liquid fuels pic-ture. Long before gasoline price increases Make large-scale useof ethanol attractive without federal subsidies, demand forgasoline is likely to plummet due to conservation. For theforeseeable future, investments in redueing fuel Te will becheaper than new fuels. The overriding facf is that current U.S.coniumption of liquid transportation fuels is too large to be putorla sustainable basis.18

Long-term prospects for.the Brazilian gasohol program areconsiderably better sincesBrazil can produce more but needsless liquid fuel than the tinitea 'States does. (See Table 7-1.)Furthermok, Brazil has substintial quantities of un*tivatedland, whereas the United States does not. But in neither coun-try can the prospects for the present goals be described as

15''7

144 Renewable Energy .

.

bright. In both, using diverse feedstocks and improving pro-duction efficiency holds the key to longer-term success.

TAap 7. 1. Gasohol Prospects.

:980 fuel 1985 goal, 1980 total 1985 goal asalcohol alcohol gasoline percentage of,'

, production production use 1980 gasoline use

Brazil 1.3

(billion gallons) (percent)

5United States .250 2 100 2

10 5 o

Source: Worldwatch Institute from U.S. and Brazilian govendocuments.

Exploiting a Many-Sided Resource Base

The limited longer-term prospects for the Brazilian and Ameri-can ethanol-froM-sugar and ethanol-from-corn programs havestimuleted'a thorough search for better energy crops. The idealone would grow 'well on marginal land, require little energy orcapital for conversion, thrive ;without fertilizers, and protectthe soil from erosiiin. While research in this area is unsys-tematic and underfunded, a surprising number of promisingplants have been found. Among them are cassava, Jerusalem

artichokes, cocOnuts, and sunflower seeds. Researeh efforts arealso under way to determine whether some crops can be grownon arid Ian , in waterwaYs, and in the oceans.

In this ru h the environmental stresses from the la'rgelcalecultivation à& any one species cannot be ignored, Thus, nosingle ideal energy crop has been or is likely to be found.instead, energy farming will have to rely upon a much morediverse plant base than contemporary agriculture does.

With sugar prices rising, Brazil has already begUn to _usecassava as an alternative feedstock for alcohol fuels. Unlikesugarcane, cassava can be grown on marginally productive land,of which Brazil hes plenty, and stored in tropical clima,tes

1 5 8

-Crowing Fuels: Energy from Crops and Waste -145

without decaying rapidly. &Aar's advantage over cassava, how-ever, is the ease with which the cane waste (bagasse) can beburned to distill the fermented alcohol. More important, cas-savi'is a staple in the diet of poor Brazilians, so diverting it to ,

energy production could reduce food supplies.19Researchers in several nations have identified plant oils that;,

can substitute directly for petroleum-based diesel'fuel. A boonis that such' vegetable and palm oils are ready for use withoutenergy-intensive distillation. Simple and inexpensive crushersalone .can fun sorrie oil-bearing seeds into fuels for on-farmuse.20

Brazil's effothto replace gasoline with ethanol has been sosuccessful that the diesel fuel needs of Brazil's large truck fleetnow account for one-third of Brazirs oil use. Consequently,Brazil hopes by 1985 to plant 4 million acres with dende palmsthe oil of which can be mixed with diesel fuel or used alonein conventional diesel engines with minor modificationstomeet io percent of the country's diesel fuel needs. The successof this plan, is far from assured, however, since large-scalecultivation of the dende palm has never been attempted andthe trees take five years to mature.21.

Efforts are under way in North Dakota and South 'Africa touse sunflower seed oil in diesel engines. South African farmersand the North Dakota State Extension Service have success-fully tested sunflower seed oil in farm equipment, and studiesinaicate that corn' farmers could power all their farm equip-ment with oil grown on lo percent of the land they cultivate,.A selling point is that sunflowers can be grown on 'poor landwith minimal amounts of water. A drawback is pricetodaysunflower oil costs roughly twice as much as diesel fuel.22

The Philippines is successfully substituting coconut oil fordiesel fuel. Cocodiesel, as the one-tenth coconut oil mixture iscalled, burns well in standard diesel engines, though start-up incooler weather is sometimes a problem. In all, cocodiesel is

,

1 5 9

er

,


ideally suited fot usein ships, factories, and trucks-. Becausealmost a third of the country's people depend on coconut oilfor a living and the world price has dropped, the governmentis eager to boost coconut oil prices. As with corn in the U.S.and sugar in Brazil, the cocodiesel program is an attempt t6boost agricultural income by creating a new market for farmproducts.23

Grasses also hold considerable potential as liquid fuel feed-stocks. Although grasses are needed to support meat- and milk-producing animals, they can be grown on marginal soils withfew energy inputs and harvested without destroying all groundcover. Like wood, they can be gasified. or converted to meth-anol for use in crop dryers and irrigation pumps. Grasses alsoadd nitrogen to th soil, so a wisestrategy would be to intercrop'them with' hutrie t-depleting food crops. According to theU.S. Office of Te nologY Assessment, an estimated 1.4 to 2.9exajoules of energy in the near-term and 5.3 exajoules by 2000could be produced from grasses.24 -

The search for suitable biomass feedstocks has also focusedon crops that grow on arid land. Some desert plants containcomplex hydrocarbons almost identical to crude oil, and theydo not have to be fermented to yield usable energy. Along with,the jojoba bean and the copaiba tree, Ihe gopherweeda vari:ety of milkweed that grows wild in the American Southwesthas attracted the most interest. University of Arizona scientistshave found that one acre of gopherWeed can annually producenine barrels of oil, a yield that plant breeders expect to increaseto at least twenty barrels per acre at a cost of about $20 per'barrel. Jack Johnson, director of arid lands studies at the univer-sity, estimates that gopherweed farms three times the size ofArizona's current agricultural acreage would require no morewater than farthing now takes and could meet all tit state'sliquid fuel needs. For the millions living in poverty on theworld's arid lands, the gopherweed could provide badly neededincome and employment.25

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Crolying Fuels:' Energy from Crops and Waste 147

Anottier strategy for producing fuels from biomass is to mixnew energy crops with traditional food craps. Using land forsuch multiple purposes7called polyculturecould over thelong term reduce food-fuel competition and enhance soil pro-tection. This will mean turning to agro-forestry techniquessuch as those increasingly employed in developing countries. Intlie United States a good agro-forestry bet is the honeylocust,a leguminous tree that grows well in various climates and onrocky or easily eroded land. In Alabama one acre of trees hasyielded 8,500 pounds of pods each year with a sugar contentof up to 39 percent. Other energy crops can be grown underhoneylocusts. Another intriguing prospect is the mesquite tree,which produces sugar-rich pods as well as wood in dry regionsof Mexico and the U.S. Southwest.26

Besides using the output of the world's crop and forest landsfor energy, sunlight falling on the earth's waters can be, col-lected for human use by various fast-growing plants. Two ex-iraordinarily proljfic aquatic plants, the water hyacinth andocean kelp, have tantalized researchers with the prospect ofturning lakes and oceans into biomass energy plantations. Al-though aquaculture and mariculture are still infant sciences,the long-term prospects for harvesting aquatie plants for energyare great since these plants do not compete with food crops forferfile land, fresh water, and fertilizers. Water hyacinths canconvert polluting sewage wastes into protein-rich biomass evenas they'generate energy, and kelp and other seaweeds have longbeen used for food and chemicals in Asia.

Yet, aquatic plant cultiyation is no surefire economic propo-sition. Scientists estimate that a kelp farm covering 46,000square kilometersp area the size of Connecticutwould beneeded to, produce as much methane as the United States nowuses, and while estimates of the cost of methane from kelp arestill slieculativel it is sure to be several times higher than cur-

. rent natural Os prices. Since kelp beds attract and sustainluxuriant fish populations, kelp's energy contribution may be

1 6

148 , Renewable Energy,

part of integrated ocean aquaculture ventures producing sea-food, 'energy, chemicals, and animal feeds.27

A fiist step in,harnessing new biomass energy sources wouldbe inventorying the earth's plant resources and their potentialas energy produc,ers. Of the hundreds of thousands of plantspecies on earth, only a few dozen are cultivated for food orfiber. Why assume the best food crops are also the best eneigycrops? Surveys of plants suitable for fast-growing firewood culti-vation conducted by the U.S. National Academy of Scienceshave located several underutilized species. Especially neededare inventories of tropical plants, since rain forest destructionthreatens the survival orThany unexaMined species.28

Plant-breeding technologies sucCessfully employed on foodcrops may also be capable of improving the energy yield ofplants. In the United States, for instance, the per-acre yield of ,.

corn has been increased from 30 to loo bushels in the past fifty.years. But such yield increases cannot occur without a diversegenetic base, so the need for new energy sources is anotherreason to preserve the earth's threatened genetic resources.29

Recently developed techniques of gene splicing may alsoincrease the energy productivity of plants. Instead of merelyselecting and concentrating genetic information found natu-rally in a given species, recombinant DNA techniques willenable scientists to transfer the genes of one plant species toanother, creating an entirely new.speci6i or endowing an exist-ing species with new characteristics. Genetic engineering isstill a budding science, but it could well revolutionize biomasS-energy prospects. Of course caution is required since an errorcould have such severe environmental consequences.30

Agricultural Wastes: The Forgotten Asset

Most people view organic wastes from plants, animals, andhumans as a nuisance. I3ut such wastes contain enough energyto alter the energy, picture in many agricultural areas. Where

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Crowing Foch: Energy from Crops and Waste 149

firewood, is in short supply, animal wastes and crop residues arealready being burned extensively to cook food and providewarmth. In India cow dung and crop residues account for iopercent of the country's total energy supply and 5o percent ofrural household energy. On a worldwide basis'it is estimatedthat cow dung and crop residues supply the energy equivalentof 257 million metric tons of coal-2 percent of total worldenergy use.31

This gift of nature has its price. In many areas of the ThirdWorld soil quality and the productivity of agriculture Sre beingundermined as more people turn to organic wastes for fuel.When crop and animal wastes are burned, mdst of their fertil-izer value is lost, depriving the soil of nutrients needed tosustain plant life. In Bangladesh, where rice straw is being.diverted from cattlefeed to stoves, fewer cattle can be sup-ported so less manure is left on the ground to fertilize the soil.Worldwide, the use of livestock droppings as fuel is estimatedto lower annual grain production by some 20 million tons,enough food to minimally nourish loo million people.32

Fortunately, a simple biomass-conversion technology, thebiogas digesthr, opens the way for developing nations to in-crease the energy value of rural agricultural wastes withoutincurring heavy costs. Cut down to basics, the biogas digesterconsists of an airtight pit or container lined with brick or steel.Wastes put into this container are fermented anaerobically(without oxygen) into a methane-rich gas of use in cooking,lighting, and electrical generation. The residue makes an excel-lent fertilizer, too. If they had biogas digesters, the rural poorwould no longer have to confront the Hobson's choice ofdeciding between .today's cooking fuel and tomorrow's soilfertility.33

By converting organic wastes into biogas, developing coin .tries could simultaneously meet pressing needs for jobs, fertil-izer, andienergy. V. V. Bhatt of the World Bank estimates thatin India 26,160 biogas digesters could praduce as much fertil:

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150 Reiewable Faiergy

,izer as a large coal-fired fertilizer factory, at roughly the samecost. The biogas digesters would provide 130,750 jobs; thecoal-fired plant 1,000. The digesters would yield as Much en-ergy as a 250-megawatt power plant, while the coal-fired fertil-izer factory would consume enough fuel to run a 35-megawattplant.34

Another benefit of the biogas option is:that biogas fermenta-tion can prevent 'the spread (Sf schistosomiasis and other dis-eases carried by human wastes since it kills the pathogenswastes contain. Digesters can..produce enough valuable gas todefray the costs of latrines and water pipes, and they cadreduce the odors that make latrine use unsavory for those whohave long used the bush instead. Unfortunately, development-investment decisions are made by agencies with only one. goalin mind. Too often, therefore, only one bird, is killed with thestone of scarce capital -resources.35

Biogas technology does' have its share of bugs and break-downs. Fermentatipn tends to stop in cold weather, and addinginsulation SQ fermentation can go on year-round in cold cli-mates adds to.,the cost of the systems. Another problem iskeeping detergents; pesticides, and air out of the digesters. Inall, though, the skills needed tobuild and operate a digester areconsiderably less than those needed to operate a diesel pumpor a motorcycle.

,

The most important constraints to greater biogas use aresocial. Traditional taboos and customs concerning animal_ andhuman waste disposal are powerful disincentives. In 1miccountries prohibitions against c6ming into contact with svinelimit the use of abundant animal wastes. In sub-Saharan fricaa taboo against handling wastes in general works again t the

, 'adoption of biogas technology. In China, by contrast, the ong-established practice of collecting "night soil" for fertimade introducing biogas units simple.36

Another thorn is that unless equity concerns attendlechnol-ogy transfer, bingo units can actually harm the rural poor, ind

1 64

Growing Fuels: Energy: CroRs 'and Waste 151,

_exacerbate the ecological .problems poverty creates. In India, the promotion of household rather than village-sized biogas

digester's in rural areas has often worsened the plight of the verypoor, who cannot afford single-family unit and yet dependupon dung collected_from the streets for c king fuel 'Whenthe' more affluent animal-owning villagers bu "gobar" units,

.as the Indians call biogas digesters, ng fro their animalsbedomes a ralued resource no longer shared. ith the poorestof the poor. Denied access to free dung, the destitute forage

,more firewood, thus worsening deforestation and soil erosion.COmmunity-sized digestersinto which the very poor couldput scavenged biomass in'return for access to common cookingand wtshing facilitieswould alldiate both problems.37

Thespotential to use biogas digesters in many Third Worldcountries ii. great, but only China has applied the digesterswidely. Chinese leaders began promoting the use of simplebiogas digester& to cOmbat rampant deforestation caused byfirewood use, declining soil fertility restating from burning cropresidues,.and prvasive rural air pollution from cooking fires. Sofar the Chinese have built 7 million biogas digestersenoughto meet the energy needs of 35 million people. Altogether,Chinese biogas digesters produce the energy equivalent of 22million tons of hard coal. The government's goal of 70 milliondigesters by 1985 could be met since 70 percent of China'sbiogas digesters are located in Sichuan, and many other Chi-nese proVinces hae equal or.greater potential for tire use ofbiogas.. Although the present Chinese leadership has decided,that many small-sae rural projects are inefficient, support for'biogas still runs high. Despite these pluses, Chin -watcher,Vaclav Smil doubts that the 1985 goal wel be m .38

China's formula for success has two eletrients. e is themobilization of local labor and the Use of local materials. Theother is.an aggressive government effort to transfer technologyfrom universities and laboratories to the rural areas where 8opercent of all Chinek live. Some 200,000 Chinese villagers

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152 Renewal* Energy

haye attended one-month training courses on the essentials ofdigester technology a-nd then returned hdrne -to supervise con-struction and teach others.39

Use of biogas generators in India has a long, checkeredhistoty. Since the late 1940s, the Khadi Village Commission,a government group attempting to implement Gandhi's ideasaboUt village industry, has helped install over 75,00:9, biogasgenerators. But India does not have as many pigs as Chinaa key fact since pig wastes are easier to collect than those ofroaming\cowsand the Indian digester (made of steel) coststoo much for the average Indian villager. Then too, rpair andmaintenance skills are scarce in Indian villages. Today onlyabout half of the biogas digesters built in India are operating.',"3

Throughout -the rest of the Third World interest in biogastechnology is growing. The 1980 U.N. Industrial DevelopmentOrganization Conference on biogas technology held in Beijing.drew participants from twenty-seven nations: The ColomboDeclaration of the Economic and,Social Council for Asia and 'the ,Pacific endorses biogas as a priority development technol-ogy. India's five:year plan cails for building 500,000 additionaldigesters. According to the Indian Planning Corritnission,India generateS enough wastes to operate 19 million family-sized units and 5.6o,000 community:sized plantsenough tocut electricity consumption by 44 percent, coal use by 15percent; and firewood by 79 percent. Small but grOwing pro-grams are also under way in Nepal and Indonesia, where fire-wood shortages are particularly acute. Brazil's'agricultural ex-tension agency is reportedly redirecting, resources so as todisseminate knowrhow to millions of people on the fringes ofthe monetary economy.4'

Opportunities for generating biogas from animal wastes inthe' industrialized nations are limited primarily to large dairyfarms and feedlots where wastes are concentrated and pollutionhas beensa problem. In the United States the Mason-DixonDairy Farm annually converts 2.7 million tons of manure from

Crowing Fuels: Energy from Crops and WistJ" 153

700 cows into $30,000 worth of gas. In the Philippines MayaFarms (the largest pig farm in Asia) gets all its power frommethane generated by 15,000 pigs.42

The economics of feedlot conversion depends heavily onhow much byproduct protein can be recovered from manure.Therefore,,,Aing protein and natural gas prices will strengthenthe alreadyTavorable economics in the years ahead. If all thewaste from the 13 4 million head of cattle in feedlots in theUnited States were converted to biogas, enough energy to heata million homes could be produced annually. This contributionwould not substantially alter the national energy picture, butit could help the agricultural system become self-sufficient inenergy.43

Another potentially significant source of energy from agri-cultural wastes is in the food-processing industry. Sugar refiner-ies, animal slaughterhouses, canneries, and citrus processorsgenerate mountains and lakes of otherwise troublesome.wastes.These wastes can be burned directly, decomposed into biogas,or converted into alcohols. The economics of such waste-to-energy projects depends on such factors as the avoided cost, ofenvironmentally sound disposal, the,volume of waste, the mois-ture ,content of the organic matter, and the market for theenergy produced. By U.S. Department of Energy reckoning,four-fifths of U.S. agricultural processing wastes could beeconomically converted into half a billion gallons of fuel-gradeethanol each year.44

Detailed studies of the waste-to-energy potential point toregionally significant energy sources. Feasibility studies con-ducted by the State of New York Energy Office indicate that2 5 millidn gallons of ethanol could.be produced from thebillion pounds of whey generated by the state's cheese industryeaCh year, Opportunities in the sugar industry are even greater.On the island of Hawaii sugarcane waste provides all energy for

/iIgtion ,and cane processing, as well as over 40 percent of theelectrici he 82,000 islanders use. Studies of the Nicaraguan

6

tr.

154 Rtnewable Energyt -

sugar industry's waste indicate that between 26 and 35'percent,

of the nation's electricity supply could be provided using stan-dard waste-processing fechnOlogy.45

Energy from Urban Wastes,(

Not all of the bounty in refuse is found in rural areas. 'Muchof the biological outOut of the worlb forests, farms, and fisher-ies ends up in city dumps. In faet, an average ton of urbanrefuse contains about as much,nergy as 500 poundfof coal.And every Year the average American throws away 1,400pounds of trash, the average West German, i ,000 pounds. (SeeTable 7.2.)46

Area

- Table 7. 2. Energy Potential_ of Urban Waste

Urban refuse Energy potential

Oiiited StatesWestern EuropeUSSR & Eastern EuropejapanDeveloping countries

(million tons per year) (exajoules)

160 1.9130 .1.390 .570. .3

too' 1.1

Source. Worldwatch Institute estimates based on U N, and World Banksources

. --

In some urban areas finding environmentally sound dispos4Imethods for voluminous Wastes has become a major headache,ev.en a crisis. Burying, burning, or dumping them at sea createsserious land-, air-, and water:pollution problems. Some citieshave boxed themselves in with garbage. New Yori, faced withtlie problem of disposing of 2.2poo tont of refuse a day, has no-niore land on whith to bury it:47 ,

Wastes do nof have to be wasted. Attempts to derive energy-from waste should take a back seat to (ecycling effortswhichalwais save more energy.,Prasticspaper, and compostable .

organic wastes. should be burned only ai a last resort. And

5.

. 1 68

Crowing Fuels: Energy frorr; Crops and Waste 85

of course, separating nonflammable glass and metals fromutban waste improves the performance of waste-to-energyplants."

Europe and japan have done by far the most to utilize theenerd potential of urban wastes. In 1977 only 6 of the i62municipal waste-to-energy plants in operation were locatedoutside of Western Europe And japan:Munich derives 1.8,

percent of its electricity from garbage. Three huge plant.s in theParis metropolitan area burn 1.7 million tons of waste per yearto produce the energy equivalent of 480,000 barrels of oil. TinyLuxembourg and Denmark are the world leaders in using urbanwaste for energy, with over half their total waste, converted tOheat or electricity. japan has more planth (85) and more in-stalled capacity than any other country. In japan and EurOpe

' most waste-to-energy plSnts are cogenerators, serving districtheating systems and providing electricity:49

The widespread tise of urban waste to produce energy inseveral European nations and jaPark predates the oil crisis. Thepopulation density of these countries makes converting produc-tiNe farm and fotest land into landfills and .waste dumps anunaffordable luxury. Nor can the countries afford surfacedumpsthat leach dangerous chemicals intO the water tablesand waterways, poisoning fish and fish-eaters. The Germanshad produced electricity from a municipal incinerator-as earlyas 1896, but the waste-to-power trend gained_moinentum inthe 196os with the realization that generating electricity withhot incinerator' gases cooled the gas, enabling air-pollutioncontrol systems to work effectively.50

The United States 'has the largest potential for turning mu-nicipal wastes into energy. By 199o, the Q.S. Department ofEnergy, estimates, 200 million tons of solid waste arid 15 anil-liOn tons ei sewage solids will be generated each year in theUnited Statesenough to produce more than two exajoules ofenergy. Yet waste-to-energy technology ha& found limited ap-plication in the United States because open-land dumPs have

169

-)

,

-,

156 Renewaide Energy._

few environmental controls. MUnicipal waste-to-energy sys-tems are economical only where governments stuck with refuse

.pay owners of such plants a "tipOng fee" roughly equal to thecost of alternative means of disposal. One of the few successfulplants in the U.S.the Revco Plant in Saugus, Massachusettsemploys European technology to produce steam and elec-tricity and depends for half its operating revenue upOn a "tip-ping fee" equal to the cost of environmentally sound dis-posal.51

Still skirting the environmental challenges of landfills, the-United States has nevertheless pioneered various advancedtechnologies designed to convert waste into liquid or gaseousfuel. Unfortunately, applying space-age technolOgy to wastedispoial problems does not necessarily solve them. As a rule,the most expensive and complicated plants have failed mostmiserably, partly because waste containing everything. from 'cans of flammable liquids to discarded motors is hard on com-plex machinery. In Baltimore, Maryland, a plant opened in1974 to convert a thousand tons of garbage per day into gasthrough pyrolysis has never worked more than eighteen dayswithout breaking down. Periodically ravaged by exploding gar-bage, it runs at about half capacity, millions of dollars in repairsnotwithstanding.52

In retrospect the failure of 'the ambitious Baltimore projectCan be laid to trying to do too many tasks at onee arid attempt-ing to do with expensive machines what people do better.Instead of employing proven European technology-that simplyburns a relatively homogeneous waste stream that is usuallyseparated in households and businesses, U.S. engineers hopedto turn a more varied wastS stream into commercial-grade

,,,... .

fuels.53The barrierts to turning urban wastes into an energy source

are for the most part institutional. Solid waste disposal costsU.S. towns and cities over $4 billion a yearonly'schools costmore. Yet most local governments are financially strapped and

. 1 70

. -Crowing Fuels: Energy horn Crops nd Waste 157

reluctant to spend money on unfamiliar projects. On the otherhand, 4 private investor would have to have ironclad assuranceiof the right to the garbage, an ample tipping fee, and a guaran-teed Market for the steam and power produced,. Without thosethree Otlises, no. such venture could work."

Existing industries that use steam and electricity would ap-pear to be 1 ical builders of waste-to-energy plants. But feware, large enou h to use all a plant's output, and selling powerto utilities is c mplicated and difficult. Electric utilities havealso been rel ctant to build waste-to-energy systems, in partbecause the optimajly sized 1,00o-ton-per-day plant producesfar less power than \the plant; they use now.. In Europe andJapan special municipal authorities have been granted the pow-ers needed to get around these obstacles.55

Although most Third World city dwellers are poor and gen-erate little combustible waStc, the urban elites of these citiesproduce nearly as much waste as their Western counterpartsdo. The waste problem in many Third World citiesin Cairo,for exampleis reduced because the poor niake a business ofrecycling things discarded by the rich. Still, extensive underem-ployment in such cities means that no capital-intensive waste-to-energy plants should be built before recycling opportunitiesare exhausted; Building plants could worsen the plight of thosewho derive a livingeven a precarious, unsanitary onebypicking through mountains-- of urban refuse. Indeed, when 30of the 400 garbage-piled acres of Mexico City's Meyehualcodump caught fire in 1980, planners rejected the idea of build-.ing a modern energy-producing incinerator because doing sowould have deprived five thousand scavengers of their liveli-hood. Mexico City's dilemma underscores the general threatto the poor posed by biomass and waste-to-energy systems thatgive co,mmercial value to wastes that the poor depend upon butdo not own.56

Although burning wastes in plants to ,extrad energy is 'more:environmentally sound than open dumping and burning,.

1.71

158 Renewable -Energy

waste-to-energy plants have their share of environmental prob-

lems. Urban wastes contain plastics, metal foild and coatings,and chemicals that form noxious gases when burned. One plantin Hempstead, New York, employing simple European waste-to-energytechnology had to be closed tempoiarily when deadlydioxin was discovered ip its emissions. Burning wastes at hightemperatures and using electiostatic precipitators can reduce

...harniful emissions, but such technologiesare ;lever completelyeffective. Then, too, residual ash from the plants is tygicallyfilled with heavy metals that must be handled as a hazardouswasteOverall, burning waste is more environmentally trouble--some thin recycling, but less sb than duinping.57

Energy can alio be drawn from urban wastes that havealready been buried inlandfills. As_ organic, wastes in airlessunderground cavities drcay, they release methane that can becollected by inserting pipes into covered landfills. In theUnited States fourteen such Piped _plants, most of them in

1 California, are already opeiating. The world's first landfillmethane-recovery system was built in Palos Verdes, California,

in 1975. Currently, it meets the energy needs of 3,500 homes.This energy sourceis a now-or-never proposition since methanefrom landfills .is lost if not tapped.58

Anolher, potentially impoftant source of urban energy is"methane from sewage-treatment plants. In Delhi, India, 700people recently switched "from kerosene and charcoal to biogas-

produced from one of the city's large sewage-processing plants.If all the wastes from the city were thus processed, experts say,zo percent of the household energy needs in the city could bemet. In many urban areas, however, biogas production in sew-age-treatment facilities is declining today because mixing in-dustrial wastes with municipal Waste kills methane-producingbacteria. The way out, -some cities are. finding, is to force

industries to pretreat wastes:59Despite the many institutional and soCial problems that

plague their use, municipaT waste-to-energy lants are well

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Crowing Fuels:Energy horn Crops and Waste 159

match41 to the energy needs of ciiies. Unlike coal and nutlearplants:far-flu:4 beCause of pollution djia safety fa' ctors, waste-to-energy plants can be located near fuel suppliq and nearcustomers. BY cogenerating electricitY and steam for spaceheating, waste-to-energy plants get twice as much usable en-ergy from fuel as do typical coal or nuclear plants.

Promise and Peril: The Plant Power Prospect-

Realizing the energy potential of biOmass without' s'acrificingother values requires sequencing biomass-developinent efforts

. carefully. The first step 'is to put pregent biomass uses on asustainable base, simultaneously maximizing existing resourcesand laying the groundwork for more intensive exploitation inthe future. ,Separating and recycling mudicipal.waste, convert-ing animal and human waste, to methane, ind brewing alcoholfrom spoiled croPs can turn environmental liabilities into en-ergy assets without further distressing the agriculture resotircebase. By substituting less-polluting, more efficient end-usetechnologies for direct combustion, this approach also allevi-ates 'environmental press-tires. This first phase of biomass usewill see industries, fai-ms, and whole regions become less depen-dent oneven independent ofconventional energy sources.

In poorer rural areas where agricultural wastes are alreadyhighly valued and used, this approach is especially apt. Inecologically overtaxed countries biomass shortages and the con-straints caused by falling soil fertility bar open-ended develop-ment. Yet burning less and returning more to the soiltheideal optionis not realislic considering how many peopledepend on such wastes for energy. Thus, particularly where itis warm, the widespread use of biogas digesters makes most

, sense. China could have at least ioo million digesters in placeby zodo, and the rest of the Third World another 200 million.,These 300 million digesters mild produce z to 3 exajoules ofenergy each yearless than 1 percent of world energy use but

4.%

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160 -* 'Renewable Energy

a critical i percent to a billion poor people with small butpressing energy needs.6.0

The goal ior farms should not be to sell energy commercially,hut to attain energy self-sufficiedey. Although agricultinal re-form in response to the new energy era has barely begun,large-scale energy plantations modeled after today's agricultureare clearly not the answer. Mixed cropping and agro-forestryschemes that yield food, fiber, forage, and fuel while protectingthe soil seem more appropriateand more likelyto meet thefuture's multipledemands.

The rush in .the 1970s into the large-scale production ofliquid fuels based on food-crop monocultures represented awrong turn. The Brazilian and American ethanol programscaused enviionmental, equity, and nutritional problems, andevert the economics of this all-or-nothing approach remains inquestion. Relying upon monocultural farming when these prac-tices are themselves being rendered questionable by rising en-ergy costs, soil erosion, and overdependence on synthetic fertil-izers simply does mot make sense. -

The biological energy source receiving most attentionethanol from sugar or copnprobably will not become a majorfactor in the energy picture until development programs havebeen redirected. Only countries with a surplus of quality agri-cultural land will get large quantities of energy from fond crops.Even Brazil will probably find that its land can be put to betteruse than growing sugar for ethanol. The brightest immediateprospects are a modest output of biogas from large feedlots,ethanol from spoiled crops ahd wastei, and possibly seed oilsfor on-farm diesel substitution. Alone these fuels will not colorthe overall energy picture; but they will help agriculture andfood processing begin the switch from fossil fuel use.

Off-farm agricultural processing industries will also movetoward energy self-sufficiency by using organic wastes to tiro-duce energy. However, as the prices of liquid fuels rise, some

1 74

Growing Fuels: Energy from Crops and Waste 161

companies may sell alcohol and use some other renewableenergy sourceperhaps direct solar or geothermal heattomeet their own energy needs.

Municipal solid waste will also make a growing contributionto urban energy supplies. Already enough energy to heat andcool mer 2 million buildings is pqduced annually in this way.With the spread of simple refu -cornbustion technology tolarge cities in North America and the Third World, urbanwaste's energy contribution could triple. Methane plants thatprocess.treated sewage supply domestic cooking energy in somewarm countries now, but in colder climates they will probablynot contribute much more than the power needed to runsewage-treatment plants. Methane from landfills will providea Natuable local enety supplement for a ftw decades in someareas. Nowhere for the foreseeable future will advanced waste-to-fuel plants shed their experimental status. Far more impor-tant than perfecting these technologies will be putting moresophisticated source-separation and recycling systems into ac-tion. In the longer term, directly burning garbagelike di-

- rectly burning wo0tnay not be worth the price.How long the land can provide energy as well as food and

fiber IT/ilfdeptrid on how systematically nutrients from wastestreams in cities are returned to the soit. Adding more chemicalfertilizers is not enough to check the accelerated depletion ofsoil nutrients that occurs in waste removal and energy farming.'Produced from natural gas, 'nitrogen fertilizer has becomemuch more expensive in reeent years, a fact affecting theeconomics of energy farming on even the most well-wateredand sun-drenched lands. Even where economical, widespreadfertilizer use poses ern ironmental problems ranging from thedifficult-to-controLpollution of water supplies with nitrates tothe poorly understood destruction of microorganiims in thesoil. Developing countries in particular will be hard-pressed tomeet additional fertilizer needs.61

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1 162 Renewable Energy

Maintaining the land's long-term productivity will probablyrequire returning ash and sludge to the land, a practice seldotnfollowed now. Typically, such wastes are instead ,buried ordumped in the ocean. One concern is that such wastes containtoxic organic chemicals and heavy metals that can concentratein plant tissue in health-threatening quantities. Indeed, NewYork City (which must daily dispose of 8,3oo tons of smelly,viscous, black sludge) found its efforts to spread sludge on 1.forest and farmland thwarted because this "goo" containedhigh concentrations of cadmium, a heavy metal associated Withkidney and liver disease. Until such toxic substances are con-trolled at their source, wastes will cobtinue tO be disposal prob-lenis instead of tonics to farm and forest.62

dnly after these steps' haVe been taken can biomass provideenergy for other sectors. Only then ean biomass-derived fuelsmove ont6 the center stage of the world energy scene to helpmeet liquid fuel needs. Once they are energy self-sufficientthemselves, farms may begin "exporting" energy io industryand transportation systems that need high-quality, concen-trated fuels. Then, energy plantations on marginal lands andmixed-Crop farms will be able to supply small and mid-sizedindustrial plants with feedstocks for liquid fuel conversion.

Given the enormous environmental impact biomass energysystems can have, environmental planning must occur beforeinvestments are sunk. If the usual pattern of choosing asourseand suffering the consequences later is followed, human healthand the global carrying capacity will decline. Making the rightdecisions and implementing them effectively will demand anew kind of interdisciplinary 'decision making. For that tohappen, a solid base of information and the political will tostand firm against the narrow goals of entrenched constituen-cies ate fieeded.

While biomass energy hoids varied opportunities and risksfor all couutries, one ,generalization holds true: Utilizing bio-mass resources without paying careful attention to the ecosys-

fl

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Crowing Fuels: Energy from Crops and Waste 163 ,..

tems from which they spring, the food and fiber resource sys- .

terns they can disrupt, and tte social systems they are to 'serveis a recipe for disaster. But if these caveats are heeded, hopefor biomass and biomass itself could spring eternal.

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I '77

Rivers of Energy.

Whether harnessed by a wooden waterwheel on a tinystream in Nepal or by a hundred-ton steel dynamo At Aswanon the mighty. Nile, all hydropower comes from the ceaselesscycle of evaporation, rainfall, and runoff set in motion by thesun's heat and the earth's pull. BY harnessing water returningto the sea, waterwheels and turbines make this natural andendlessly renewable energy useful.

Froni falling water comes one-quarter of the world's electric-ity. Among renewable energy sources, only woo'd makes a largercontribution. No other renewable energy technology is as ma-ture. Yet several times the amount already harnessed remains

178

Rivers of Energy 165

.untapped Developing this potential will require constructinglarge dams in the Third World and in the 'peripheral regionsof industrial countries, -as well ps small dams eiTrywhere:Whole 'economies could be built around hydropower if theenvironmental problems, political disputes, and financial un-Certainties surrounding its -use Acre overcome.1

The Power of Falyng Water

HittoriCally, hydropower's de has been shaped more by social

. and political conditions than by the availability of hydro-tech-nology. In theearliest reference to hydropower, the Creek poet

ntipater praised .the watet-powerect gristmill for freeingC ek women from the labor of grinding grain by hand. TheR mans had waterwheels, but first slavery and then widespreaduidernpIoyment removed any inc ntive'to save human labor.

. ,Only after war and famine ravage the disintegrating ROmaneMpire and tfie Blac ague kil _d a third of .fourteenth-cen-

,tury Europe's population Jabor-saving water -mills come. .

into wider use. By i800 tend of thousands were in use through-out the 'Continent.2 . . ,

As primitive hydropower technology spread, so did social ,dislocation and conflict. Comfortable with traditional handgrinders, small farMers resisted bringing their corn to villageMills. Hoping to stimulate Pie use of water mills where the:.peaiants' grain would be visible, and hence taxable, he Frenchgovernment outlawed hand mills. And in the par of the NewWorld where slave-holding was Mit tolerated and labor wasscarce, waterwheel technology flourished. By i 800 about io,- .

000 waterwheels were in use in New England alone.3.HYdropoWer first. became a source of electricity during the'

nineteenth century. Invented in 1820 by the French engineer .,Benoit Fourneyron, the turiline was to the waterwheel whatthe propeller was to the side paddlea submersible, compact,

.^ 179

r

166 Renewabk Energy

and more efficieni energy converter...Turbines were first linkedto generators to produce electricity in Wisconsin ip,.-1..812, and

the development of alternating current by George Westing-house at Niagara Falls ift19o1 made transmitting power overdstances, economical. During the 'eight decades since, thetechnology has been refined but not greatly altered.4

Tbe early hydropower facilities, known as run-of-the-riverplants, produced little power during the dry season_ -whenstreams and rivers were low. To obtain continuous power out-put, large d.ims with water-storage reservoirs were built; Sincethe thirties, post hydropower energy has come from majordams set in !Inge rivers. Since the oil shock of 1973, intetestin the intermittent power from run-of-the-river dams, many 9fwhich were abandoned when petroleum was cheap, hasrevived.5

Rising energy 'prices have ailSb sparked interest in a largelyforgotten hydropower technology that does not depend ondams at all. During die Middle Ages, before dams were com-mon, waterwheels affixed to barges anchored in rivets werewidely used. Sucb floating hydro plants' are not ecologicallydisruptive, ana they can tap otherwise inaccessible water flows.SeveTal countries are now trying to modernize this old tech-nique and to assess its costs. If this technology (k-riewn as thelift translator) proves economical,' the entrgy potentigl andenvironmental.soundness of hydropower would inerease-

dramatically.6Since water power was first used to produce electricity, hy-

drb-energy's contribution .to the world's electricity supp* hasrisen steadily". 'In 1980 it accounted for about 25 percent ofglobal electricity and 5 percent of total world energy use; Totalworld hydro production today is 1,720 billion kilowatt-hours,which is generated at dams with a total capvity of 458,000megawatts. The world's leading generator orelectricity fromfalling water is the United States (mow megawatts of capac-ity). Next in line are the Soviet Union (47,000) and Canada'

1801

st

1.Rivers of Energy 167,

- .

(40402) With a tenth of the planet's potential1

China willlikely surpass all three over the long run.7

If all the energy contained in the water flowing toward theoceans was harnessed, a staggering 73 trillion kilowatt-hourscould ge produced annually Yet f iven technical conitraints,probably no more than 19 trillion kilowatt-hours can actu'allybe tapped But while enri'ronrnental and economic factors willconstrain use of this resouree:at some pOint, world hydropowerproduction could, still reach between (our and six times itspresent leve1.8 , ,

.

In general, hydropower potential is distributed aniong thecontinents in rough propoition to land area. Asia haez8 per-cent of the world's potential; South America, 20 pegent;Africa and North America (including Central America), 16,percent each, the Soviet Union, ii percent, Europe, 7 percent,and Oceania, 2 percent. Although every continent has hydro-powei potential, mountainous areas and large river Valleys havethe most For instance, India is twenty times 'as big as Nepal,

'but Nepal has nearly three times as much' hydropoui.waten-tial.9. ,. .

Much of the world's untapped hydroelectrickpotential liesfar from industrial centers, evgn far from inhabited areas. Un-populated parts of Alaska, northern Canada, and Siberia havetreimendous hydropower potential. ,The Amazon, the Congo,the Orinoco, and the.rivers snow-fed by the Himalayas all offer"sites for largerscale hydroelectric .. development. Remotereaches of Papua New Guinea, South Africa, Borneo, Tas,mania, Norway, the Philippines, Argentina, cuana, and,NewZealand also have many promising dam sites.10

Some regions are much farther alo--n han otheis in deyelop-ing their water resources. TSee Table 8. .) Europe, Japan, theUnited States, the eagern Soviet Union, and southern Canadaikaye done the most to harness this power source. Indeed,Europe has explOited almost 6o percent of its potential. Withonly a fourth of Asia's resources, it generates netplirtmjice as

1 81

..168 kenewable Energy. .

much power. Africa has developed dnly,about 5 percent of itspotential, half of which comes from just three damsKaribain East Africa, Aswan on theNile, and Akosombo in Ghana.11

Table 8. i. Hydropower Potential and Use, bi.Region,,198o

Region

Technicallyexploitablepotential

Share ofpotentialexPloited

(megawatts} . (percent)

Asia 61o,loo 9South America 4.31.900 8

Africa . 358 300 5 -

North America . 336,400 36

USSR ;30,000 1 2

Europe 163,000 , . 59 .(

Oceania 45,003 1 5

World z,zoo,odo 17

Source- World Energy Conference,, Survey of Energy Resources

Insome areas hydropower is the main source of electricity.More than thirty-five developing and industrial nations alreadyobtain more than two-thirds of their electricity from fallingwater. In South America 73 percent of the electricity usedcomekfrom hydropower, compared to 44 percent in the devel-oping world as a whole. Norway gets 9-9 peicent of its electric-ity and 50 percent, of all its energy frOm falling water.12

Big Opportunities and Big

Few technological changes so ramatically and visibly alter theface of the earth as large, dams nd artificial lakes:Large mod-

. ern ms rEnk among hiima greatest engineering feats.Egyj5ts Aswan. High Dam, foi ins e, weigh's. seventeen

times much,as the Great ram d of 'Cheops. The ItiapuDam, oh the Parana between B and Paraguay, will soonenerate 12,606 megawattsas much power as thirteen large

,

8 2

A

a 4

Rivers of "Energy 169

nuclear power plantsmaking it the biggest power complex onearth. The lakes created by such dams number among theplanet's, largest freshwater bodies. Ghana's Lake Volta, forexample, covers 8,5oo square kilontetersan area the size of .

Lebanon.13Even larger dams and lakes, however, are on the drawing

board. On the Yangtze River in China, the Three Gorges Damnow under study will probably be the world's biggek damcapable of generating 25,000 megawatts of power. 'American?Canadian, and Soviet planners have even grander designs forthe giant rivers flowing into the Arcticthe Yukon, the Mac-Kenzie, ihe Ob, and the Lena. And Egypt is considering ,har-nessing the energy of water now resting in the MediterraneanSea by channeling it through an artificial canal into the QattarbDepression, an 18,00o-square-kilometer sink in the Sahara.14

Modern dam building traces back to .the establishment ofthe Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) in the United Statesin 1933. Before Franklin Roosevelt created this governmentbody, conflict between private power developers and publicpower advocates slowed US. hydropower development. ,Thecreation of the TVA settled the case in favor of the publicsector. It also marked the beginning of a.basin-wide develop-ment program centered around energy production. A uniqueblend of ,centralized planning 'and grass-roots participation,TVA has the power to borrow money, condemn private prop-erty, and build dams. It also has a broad mandate to promoterural electrification, cOntrol soil erosion, improve navigation,and harnes power. TVA spearheaded development in a mil;

-lion square mile area by enlisting the essential help of thou-sands of small farmers and townspeople and by re,:varding themfor cooperating. TVA's comprehensive approach to the devel-opment of river basins has become, the model everywhere.15

The decade after World War II was the golden age of largedarn construction in the United States, the Soviet Unions andCanada. By the late 19505 the frontier of large dam construe-

/

183


tion was the Third World and remote regions everywhere. Thesuccess of such basin-wide schemes as ths,TVA and the Soviet,development of the Volga and Dnieper Rivers has drawn manyThird World leaders to this energy source. So his tile prestigevalue of large dams, which symbolize industrial progress. Thegenerous financing terms and management assistance the in-dustrial world offers make the construction of large dams evenmore attractive to nations facing chronic capital and/ technol-ogy shortages.16

Political cooperation between nations sharing commonwiter resOurces" is 'a prerequisite to financing and constructingmany large-scale hydroelectric dams. (Altogether, some 200 ofthe world's rivers cross international boundaries.) Where hy-dropower is most developedin North America and Efiropenations have successfully devised political mechanisms for co-operative river development and conflict resolution. In NorthAmerica, for example, the Columbia and St. Lawrence riverscould not have been harnessed had not the U.S. and Canadiangovernments cooperated closely. In Europe, the Rhine andDanube could not be developed until previously suspicious andoft-warring nations laid aside their differences.17

Unresolved conflicts over water rights remain a major barrierto the development of ma4 promising large hydro sites. Long-simmering disputes between India, Nepal, and Bangladeshover Himalayan waters frustrate efforts to harness one of theworld's major energy resources. In Canada an old dispute be-tween Newfoundland and Quebec over power pricing hasdelayed construction of a 2,300-megawatt dam complex on thelower ChurchillkRiver. And the hydroelectric and irrigationpotential of the Aekong River in Southeast Asia remains un-tapped because of conflict between "Laos, Thailand, Kampu-éhea, and Vietnam.18NIUnable to compromise with resource-sharing neighbors,

some countries have unilaterally develotied the,portion of the''resource base they control. Yet such a strategy can backfire.

ito

184

Rivers a Energy 171

When Egypthin president Nasser initiated the Aswan Damproject in the early 195as, Great Britafircontrolled the headwa-ters dthe Nile in the Sudan and centraTAfrica. Thus efficiencyand econorriy were sacrificed so as fo place the dam beyondf Biltain's reach, today, however, the reservoir is filling with silt'far more rapidly than,anticipated as soil erodes in impoverishedregions of other African countries of the Nile Basin. ShouldIndia deselop risers of the subcontinent without Nepal's coop-eration, the curse of Egypt will be on it too.19

Hydroelectric projects figure prominently in the economiesand investment plans of many developing nations. With powerfrom Aswan, Egypt electrified virtually all'of its villages andcreated many new jobs in labor-intensive local industries. Com-panies attracted by the power of the S5o Francisco River havebrought alrriost a million new jobs to impoverished northeastBrazil. Venezuela expects to spend tens of billions of dollarsover several deeades to harness 40p00 megawatk of powerfrom the Caroni River at Curl. And the Philippines, heavilydependent on imported oil, envisions a 45 percent increase inhydroelectric generation in its current five-Year energy pro-.gram.2°

.

Yet kilowatt-hours generated is no measure of integrateddevelopment. The impacts on agriculture, fisheries, health,

. employment, and income distribution must all be weighed.Unfortunately, building a large dam in a developing country

. does not necessarily improve the standard of living for the poorrural majority since the energy-intensive industries that locatenear large dams seldom provide many jabs for unskilled localPeople. A case in point is the $2 billion Asahan aluminum andhydroelectric project in Sumatra, which will employ only 2,100of the island's estimated 30 million people. Too often, thepower not used by nearby industry will be transmitted hun-dreds of miles to major cities, leaving dozens of villages unlitalong the way.21, .

.

As for the ecological changes wrought by large dams, they

16 5


pose both opportunities and dangers. Large dams change aself-regulating ecosystem into one that must be managed.Plopped into a river with no thought to the upstream anddownstream impacts, a large dam Can bring disaster. Lakes-Cannot survive some of the abuses rivers can, so traditional waysof life are called into question, especially sanitation practices.Water-borne disease can get out of hand and soil erosion andpollution must be controlled in order to preserve a dam's water-storage and-power capacities:22

The world over, the silting of resemirs caused by soil elo-sion threatens dams. When a reservoir fills with sediment, adam's ability to store water and generate energy is drasticallycurtailed. The Sanmin Gorge Dam in central China, for exam-ple, has lost.three-quhrters of its ,000-megawatt power capac-.ity to sediment from the Yellow River. In Nepal deforestatiqnand farming on, steep lands threaten to incapacitate the fewdims already built on Himalayan rivers. Until the topsoil ofNepal and northern India can be stabilized through reforesta-tion and iniproved,farming practices, both countries' ambitioushydroelectric and irrigatiorf plans will have to be postpoted.23

A primary motivation for building large dams is to trap waterfor irrigation. By storing water from rainy seasons and years foruse when it is dry, dams mitigate the effects of droughis,increase agricultural productivity, and extend agriculture to dryuncultivated areas. Often the electricity generated at suchdams powers pumps that extend irrigation over large areas. Ofcourse, farmland created in this way has a pricethe riverbottomlands flooded by the dam. Where dams have curtailedthe "spring floods that once deposited rich silt on the land,artificial fertilizers must be applied to preserve soil fertility, andfertilizer production cad consume much of the dam's poweroutpuf.24

On fisheries the impact of large dams is both ambiguous andunpredictable. Gauging imPacts is especially difficult in tropi-cal Afrita, Asii, and Latin America,,where many important but

186.


still mysterious fish speCies live. Where fish species migratelong distances to breed, dams can decimate fish stocks. The

, rich Columbia River salmon fisheries in North America de-clined sharply after dams were built on the riverdespite well-funded programs to build fish ladders and to restock the river.The unanticipated destruc,tion of the eastern Mediterranean'sardine fishery by the ;Aswan. High Dam has been more thancounterbalanced by the emergence of a fishing industry onnewly creatzl Lake Nasser, but sardine fishermen cannot findthe change consoling. Egyptian officials optimistically predictthat Lake Nasser will eventually yield 6o,000 tpns of fish peryear But if eiperience with other African dams is any guide,production may fall as the lake grows older and becomes moreecologically settled.25

On human populations the impacts of large hydropowerprojects in tropical regions are only too well understood. Inwarm climates reservoirs and irrigation canals provide ideal'breeding grounds for snails that transmit schistosomiasisadebilitating, sometimes fatal disease that currently afflicts some200 million people in tropical countries. Better sanitationfacilities and improved hygiene could virtually wipe out thisand other waterborne diseases, but planners' and governments'best efforts have so far failed to get people near newly createdlakes to adopt the sanitation practices that cOuld halt disease.26

Another often-neglected cost of large dams is.that paid bypeople whose homes are flooded by the project. Some 8o,000were disp ced by Lake Nasser in Egypt and Sudan, 75,000 byLake V ta in Ghana, 57,000 by Lake K2610 in East Africa;

'and o,000 by LOe Kainji in northern Nigeria. China'splanned Three Gorges Dam could force some 2 millidn peopleto leaye home foreyer. Plans to resettle and reemploy displacedpeople figure prominently in few dam projects, and most ofthose made fail for lack of funding. And no amount of govern-ment aid can compensate for the permanent loss of one'sroots. 27

18 7


Particularly troubling is the threat to native tribes long.pre-served by isolation. The already beleaguered and shrinkingIndian tribes of. Amazdnia, for example, could be forced byBrazil's ambitious dam development to resettle in a cultureharshly and disorientingly modern by their standards. SOmenative peoples have resisted government resettlement pro-grams, protesting and taking up arms. Holding fast against thePhilippine government's plan to place Southeast Ma's largesthydro project on the swift-flowing Chico River, tribes in cen-tral Luzon have fought repeatedly .with governmenCtroops.Still others have woroubstantial concessions. Native people inthe area inundated by Quebec's giant James Bay projectdelayed construction through the courts and forced the govern-ment tOgrant them $250 million, title to 12,950 square kilome-ters of land, and preferential employment rights on the project.Isolated tribes in poorer, less developed countries are unlikely

.to fare so well, although groups such as Survival Internationalhave recently emerged to help them.28

Dams can also endanger little-known plant and animal spe-cies. In Quebec careful environmental monitoring revealecbrthat the new dams awl impoundments threatened no species.But many tropical plants or animals with potentially -high eco-nomic value will be lost forever if darn reservoirs are builtbecause so many tropical species have yei to be named. Evenwhere threatened species have been identified, pressure to de-stroy their habitats can be irresistible. Over the heated protestsof environmentalists, Australia has built a hydroelectric com-,

. plex in Ilake Peddar National Park, flooding habitats of dozensof species found only in Tasmania.29

A 'few hopeful signs indicate that in many countries thedam-building process is now more than a feat of engineeringmuscle. Many of the hazards of dam construction in the trop-ies, for example, are better understood now than when the 6rst'modern dams were built thirty years ago. The plans fot thehydroelectric and irrigation project being built on the Senegal

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. Rivers oi Energy 175

River by Mauritania Mali, and Senegal call for extensive eco-logical monitoring and population-relocation programs.On theother hand, Brazil's ``dam it all" approach.can be expected tocost the nation plenty later,30

While ecological change accompanies any dam pioject, es-pecially in the tropics, the failure of communities and farmersto make necessary adjustments once the dam is built probablycauses Mgr environmental problems than the structures them-selves do. Accordingly, even the best-laid plans will not workunless people at the grass-roots level help n the project andshare in its benefits. Unfortunately; th invo vement of farni-ers, owners of small businesses, and l .1 ncialsthe key todie Tennessee Valley Authority's successhas-too 'often been,missing in developing countries. Erosion along the shores of1.I.,ake Kariba between Zimbabwe and Zambia, for example, has-reached dangerous levels despite efforts by both governmentsto prevent overgrazing and to preserve a band of trees along thewater's edge: Although local farmers and herders know theirpractices threaten the lake, they cannot afford tO forgo short-term production gains.P

Tennessee Valley farmers controlled erosion, and plantedjp. trees because they receiyed cheap loans and cheap electricity

in exchange. But poor farmers on the Zambezi are being askedto abandon ecologically destructive practices and offered noth-ing in return. Often the failure of planners to spread a project'sbenefits'among all affected actually accelerates the impoverish-ment of marginal groups.

Maintaining Momentum

For the last three decades, large-scale hydropower develop-ment in developing countries and in peripheral regions of theindustrial cpuntries has occurred primanly because energy-intensive industries need cheap electricity and global-lendinginstitutions have been willing to advance multi-billion dollar

189.

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176 Renewable EnergyA

loans. Today the failures of the international .economic andpolitical systems to -adjust to higher prices and higher coststhrow such long-term investments into question.32

Large dams are extremely expensive, and nearly all are builtwith borrowed money. Aswan, for example, cost $1.5 billion,when it was built in the sixties. Itiapu will cost between and$6 billion, and China's Three Gorges project could cost $12billion. The U.S. government bOrrowed to finance '?VA inihe1930s, Brazil and Quebec borrowed the needed capital in the19705; and China will do so in the 198os. According to theWorld Bank, the Third World will need to saise an estimated$loo billion between 1980 and 2boo for hydro plants cupeitlyon the drawing boardsa staggering sum considering highinterest rates and the financial plights of many 'developingcountries.33

Few major dams are likely to be built in developing countrieswithout at least partial World Bank funding bedauSe Westernbanks and lending consdrtia fear-that a Third World countryMight nationalize a dam once constructed. At. the_sarne tirne,few,developing countries are willing to turn over ownershij ? ofso important a naional resource as a river to foreign privateinvestors.34

Capital for hydropower projects is most readily available.when salss of powermainly to energy-intensive industriesowned by multinational corporationsguarantee a steady, pre-dictable flow of revenue. In such sparsely inhabited regions astile Amazon Basin, New Guinea, Quebec, and Siberia, theneed for power to extract And smelt minerals provides the

principal impetus for hydroelectric development. Whereprime hydro sites are not close to rich mineral deposits, 'themain economic force behind large dam constrictio i thealuminum-synelting industry.35

Coqstructing dams in previously undeveloped areas often 7leads to a conflict between new users and those who made thedam possible. bam -owning governments soon see the Wisdom

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'Rims of Energi 177

in diverting cheap power to emploYment-intensive activities orto raise prices to fund national development programs. Whenthe availability of cheap power stimulates consumption enoughtoiprecipitate shortages, a painful choice emerges. Either gov-ernments must raise prices for the heavy energy users, perhapsdriving them elsewhere, or it must let smaller consumers alonebear the prohibitive cost of building new coal or nuclear powerplants to meet demand. Egypt, the U.S. Pacific Northwest, andGhana face this painful dilemma today. As the price of electric-ity produced from fossil and nuclear energy climbs, countries__selling 'hydroelectricity at bargain rates have been increasinglytempted to raise prices to the world averageoften ten timesthe rate they now charge. Yet so far the interests of largeelectricity consumers accustomed to cheap prices have pre-vailed.3.6

In the years ahead the key td plannifig and financing hydro-power will be resolving these conflicts and raising pricesmarkedly. Nowhere has,the pricing and allocation of hydroelec-tric.power yet 'changed .in response to the oil shocks of theseventies. Between 1970 and 1975, the price of coal quadru-pled, the price of uranium increased eightfold, and the price.of oil rose tenfold. Owyirs of reserves of these fuels quicklyreaped a massive windfall as prices folloived OPEC oil to dizzy-ing new heights. Only the owners of hydroelectric facilities,-governmentsmissed out ofithe profits. While the prices ofoil, coal, and Uranium were influenced by the price of importedoil, hydropower's cost continued to reflect the cOst df produc-tionthe suni) of dam-operating costs and the interest onmoney *rowed long ago, neither of whiCh -rose much. As areiult, consumer demand and waste of electricity rose. Alreadyunderpricing and overdemand are'strapping the governm-ent-controlled Bonneville Power Authority in the Pac*e_North-west. Since electricity prices in the Pacific NOrthwa are one-,eighth those in oil- and nuclear-dependent New York City,Washingtonians and Oregonians use five times as much elec-

191

178 itenewable Energy .

tricity pet capita as Nei, rkers do. But meeting this extra-ordinary price-stimul ed de and_ with new nuclear plants isnot working. Nuclear cost overruns already more than equalthe cost of all the federal dams on the Columbia River.37

For developing countries the' cheap sale of hydropower hashad even more tragic consequences. Locked into contractswith aluminum companies that were signed before the pricerevolution-of the 197os, dozens of third Worla nations areselling their principal energy resources at a price'far below theirmarket value. According to the Center for Development PolicfStudiek simply incteasing hydroelectric prices to the, worldaverage price of electricity would earn fifty`7six developing na-tions over $10 billion annually. Through underselling to West-ern-owned multinational corporations, these nations are collec-tively losing about as much each year as the World Bank lendsfor all development projects.38 -

Ghana exemplifies the problems underpricing hydropowercauses. In the sixties this West African nation built a large damon the Volta River and signed a thirty-year contract to sellpower to Kaiser Aluminum Company at three-tenths of a centper kilowatt-hour (one-twentieth of the current world averageprice). For Ghana the dam represents a major national invest-ment. It also represents a sacrifice: Waterborne diseases in-creased .once the dam was built, and people from nearbyflooded areas had to be 'relocated. Yet revenues from the dambarely cover interest payments and operating costs, so,Ghana'gets little net benefit fro* its principal national energy re-source. With the Kaiser smelter taking over 90 percent ofGhana's total electrkity production, Ghana faces electricityshortages. It ha's had to borrow money to build smaller, moreexpensive dams, 'and it now imports power from neighboringcountries. Attempts to renegotiate contracts with Kaiser havefallen flat, partly because neither the World Bank nor the U.S.government will support Ghana.39

Selling hydroelectric power at prices closer to its true market

s192 lei

1

Rivers of, Energy 179

Would,make aNailable funds to build other dams and tohelp consumers cope with higher prices by investing in energyefficiency. In the U.S. .Pacific Northwest, for instance, theBonne,,ille Power Authority could raise nearly a billion dollars

, a year by selling its hydropower at the national average pxiceof electricity. In developing countries additional electricityrevenues could support internal development.40

Like dam construction on international rivers, pricing re-form demands international solutions. Unilateral action by de-,,eloping countries to raise prices will undermine investor confi-dence and jeopardize access to fnrther World Bank loans, Yetinaction has high costs, too, as the debacle in the U.S. PacifimNorthwest, vividly shows.To avert these problems apd boosthydropower development, the World Bank and its principalcontributors should encourage i gradual rise in the price ofhydroelectricity, one that the aluminum industry could bearwithout, moving its p)ints closer to centers Of demand.41

Establishing a realistic hydroelectric-pricing scheme couldtrangform the prospects for hydro development in poorer partsof the wOrld.'As the migrating alurhinum industry opens upmore remote hydropower-rich regions, the Price. of alumipum

icOuld gradually rise.to reflect the costs of operating in ncreas-ingly difficult terrain. These higher prices would stimulate alu-minum recycling. Eventually a smaller aluminum: industrylocated in the most remote regions would reach' equilibrium.In the wake of industry's wanderings would be many flourish-ing and .sustiinable local economies.

Small-Scale Hydropower for Rural Development, .

Fortunately, large darns are not the sole hydro developmentoptiorf of developing nations. The power of falling water canalso be harnessed at much smaller sites with capacities between

kilowatt and i megawatt. By constructing small dams, ThirdWorld countries can unleash the 5 to m percent of their

180 Renew.able Energyr

hydropower resources that the World Bank conservatively esti-mates exists at small sites. Srpa2 dams could, in fact, provideroughly as much electricity as Third World countries derivefrom hydropower todaymore,* if inexpensive local labor and

Imaterials are.used.42The economics of building small dams for power production

varies widely. The World Bank says that costs hover around$3,500 per kilowAtt of installed capacity, but many projects arebeing built today for between $5oo and $1,00o per kilowatt ofcapacity. Because relatively fixed engineering and site-prepara-tion costs can be spread over a larger power output, larger damsseem to enjoy considerable economies of scale. But small-scaleprojects look wore favorable if the hidden or discounted socialcosts of large dams are taken into account. In general, develop-ing countries stand to reap more by developing the cheapestsmall sites available before yenturing into additional large damprojects.43

Besides generating revenues small hydro plants can reinforce'economic development by converting poorer _countries' mostabundant and least-used resourcelaborinto criticallyneeded caPital. They can also -catch silt-laden storm waters,thus protecting large downitream dams from premature sedi-mentation.

Among developing, natioos, China alone has placed highpriority on small-scale hydro development. Mile most devel-oping countries have borrowed money and imported technol-ogy to build large dams to run heavy industrythe Chinese haverelied on indigenous labor, capital, and technology to build tensof thousands of small hydro facilities. Reports that major-citiesregularly experience "brown-outs" and that electricity forheavy industry is scarce are true, but China has brought many,

, basic amenities to its vast rural population by building smalldams.'"

AlthOugh China was ah early user of waterwheels, all butfifty of the nation's hydro facilities were decimated in thestrife

1 94

"%we%


and economic decay that preceded the communist revolution.After 1949 the gOvernment followed the Soviet model of ruralelectrifcation by emphasizing large power plants, so the num-ber of small hydro facilities in use actually declined in the latefiftiesi But with the Cultural Revolution in the mid-sixtiescarne a boom in small-dam construction that China's currentleaders continue to promote.45

Since 1968 an estimated 90,000 small-scale hydrb units withsome 6,330 Megawatts of generating capacity have been built,mainly in the rainy southern half of the country. Although theaverage size of the units is a meager 72 kilowatts, small plantsaecount for 40 percent of China's installed liydro capacity. Inmore than one-quarter of the nation's counties, these smalldams are already the main source of electricity, and Chinaexpects to add 1,500 megawatts of power annually through1990 and 2 ,000 megawatts per year for the ten years following.By the turn of the century, the government hopes small hydrofacilities will be Providing six times as much energy as they didin 1979.46

the Chinese consider small hydro plants just one part ofintegrated water-management schernes and rural developmentefforts. Driven by the need to feed and emPloy a billion people,the government has given highest priority to agricultural water'storage, irrigation, flood control, and fishery needs. Chinesevillagers'have built impoundments and irrigation ditches withsimple hand tools and without expensive, heavy earth-moving

- equipment. Many of the components of hydro plant,5tur-- bines, pipes, and gateshave been colstructed at small shopsbry local artisans using local materials and standardized designsWith money earned and saved from agriculture and fishing,communes have upgraded the sites without central govern-ment funding. Technical advice from agricultural extensionworkers has improved dam and plant design and helped lowercosts:47

Unlike dams that power capital-intensive export industries

195


in so many dcreloping countries, small dams in China supportworkshops that turn locally arailable raw materials into goodsused in iisearby.. areas. Hydropowered factories scatteredthroughout the countryside.husk rice, mill grains, make soap,aneproduce leather and simple metal goods. The power leftorer is forlighting, movies, snd telecominunications.While the antities of energy involved are not great, thesehydro plants dramatically improve the quality of rural lifeandthus halt migration to overcrowded citiesby reducing thebackbreaking drudgery of lifting water, sawing wood, andgrinding grain by hand. And village-based reforestation, anti-erosion, and schistosomiasis-confrol programs have enabled theChinese to avoid the ecological and health problems oftenconnected with hydropower use. The.leaders in Beijink claimthat their small-scale water development efforts complementrather than displace the need for laige dams. By "walking onboth legs"building small dams as well as largethey hope toexploit fully their tremandous water-power potential withoutincurring high social and, ecological costs.48

The projects comNeted outside China confirm the role, ofsmall hydro plants in balanced development. In Papua NewGuinea, for example, the village schoolmaster in remote Bain-doang heard about hydropoiver on a radio show and asked thenational university for help building a stnall dam. Along witha private group it obliged, and a tiny 7-kilowatt turbine wasinstalled two year's later. Celebration and dancing com-memorated the coming of power to the village, where it lightsthe.school and store and heats water for communal showers.By mobilizing locallabor, the project strengthened the village-level institutions and gave villagers a greater sense of control'over their own livesa far cry from what large hydropowerprojects do.49

Spurred by rising oil prices and such examples, many.ThirdWorld countries have become interested in sinall-scale hydro-power. Nepal, the most active, recently opened about sixty

Rivers of Energy - 183

wker-powered mills. These efforts are being assisted by modestbut growing international aid programs. The.U.S. Agency forInternational Development has loaned Peru:s national" powercompany $9 miaion for twenty-eight installations ranging insize from ioo to 1,000 kilowatts. Fran'ce ,is helping severalAfrican nations build small dams, and Swiss grps ire helpingNepal set up factories to build small, inexpensive turbines.Unfortunately, the World Bankwhich between 1976 and1980 loaned $1.68 billion for large-Scale hydroelectric projectshas spent, almost nothing on developing small sites.50

Promising first steps, these programs must be expanded con-siderably to have much impact. By funding bacIly needed sur-veys of small-hydropower polential, development assistance.,groups could document the .dimensions of thisr,untapped re-source and direEt local groups to particularly promising sites._Once specific projects get nderway, governments and interna-tional agencies can help by providing hydrologists, geologists,and engineers to ensure that clams are built safely and take fulladvantage of the water flows. International agencies Cbuld aliotake up TVA director S. David Freeman's challenge to estab-lish an international hydropower development corporation toshare scarce knowledge and skills. Large lending institutionscould help by repackaging capital blocks into smaller parcelsand broadening loan criteria to &Vet the hidden social costsof large dams and the neglected benefits of small ones."

Developing nations themselves also need to reassess the pri-ority they give largq-scale hydro development.efforts. Dottingthe countryside with small projects may not be as politicallygratifying as erecting a few big modern dams, but it would.gofarther than a "think big" approach toward itieeting the needsof the rural populace. Altlipugh small- and large-scale hydroprojects go hand in hand, integrated village-level water devel-opment should precede the construction of large dams as a,general rule. Erosion, the spread of waterborne and other dis-eases, and the other side effects of large projects will be easier


to amquer if people have already helped design small dams intheir villages. At the same time, rural development will be morebalanced and more effective.

Making Better Use of Existing Dam

In the United States, Japan, and several European countrieswhere hydropower resourees are well developed, strong publicsupport for free-flowing rivers has brought daroconstruction toa virtual standstill. In these areas the challenge is not to buildnew darns, but to preserve both wilderness and ecological Jal-ties by making better use of existing ones.

Much of the public's opposition to new danis reflects adesire to preserve "white water" recreational opportunities andto keep remote and unaccountable ufility companies withinbounds. Some also is based on -ksound ecological. principles.Preserving representative river systems in their natural stateprovides a baseline against which* ecological change on oti}errivers can be measure'd as. well as sanctuaries for the many/species that thrive only in swift-moving waters. Many peoplealso reognize the obligation those Who have despoiledko muchof the ei'fth have to future generations:42

The.United States sand Sweden have done most to preservewild rivers with high-aesthetic, wilderness, and recreationalcalue. Parts of thirty-seven U.S'friverswith, a combined po-tential capacity of 1,75,o megawattsrare protected from fur-ther development under the Wild and Scenic Rivers Act. An-other 3,500 megawatts of power potentii on the lowerColorado River is going unused because of Grand CanyonNational Park cofistraints. Sweden has permanently banneddams from four undeveloPed 'rivers in its far north.53

As the improving econolvics of hydropower open the wayfor exploitation in the years ahead, public officials and citizensihould scrutinize dam projects more carefully than they have.In particular, 'the often-inflated claims of recreational and

198

Rivers of Energy 185i

flood-control benets must be assessed carefully since powersales alone seldom justify.a project.'Then, too, the prime agri-cultural value of bottomland. that must be flooded should notbe underestimated. In many cases, water conservation andflood-control benefits could be better aciSieved by reducingwater waste and limiting construction in flood plains.54

The United States, Europe, Japan, and the Soviet Union allbave many small dams tunder Ve megawatts) that representincreasingly viable sources of power as electricity prices rise.France has been so successful in pressing its dams into servicethat 1,o6o micro-hydro stations with a combined capacity of390 megawatts constitute i percent of the nation's total gener-ating capacity. Japan too has aggressively harnessed its abun-danf water resources with numerous small dams. Recent stud-ies indicate that billy regions of Wales, Scotland, Spain,Sweden, and Romania all have substantial untapped hydropotential at existing small dams.55

The greatest opportunity in the industrial world to takeadvantage, of small dams. is in the United States, whek manysmall- and medium-sized dams await renovation. Twenty-one

, small dams on the Rhône in France produce 3,000 megawattsof power while the comparably sized Ohio in the U.S. prodgesonly 18o megawatts. In all less than 3 percent of U.S. damsproduce electricity, even though an estimated 6,000 to 24,000megawatts is available at small dams alone compared to thepresent total U.S. hydropower capacity of 64,00o megawatts. 5.6

During the last several decades, falling electricity prices andthe end of the forty-year life of construction tax concessions ledto the abandonment of almost 3,000 dams in the U.S. But theyears of neglect are now themselves ending---albeit at a highcost. According to the New England River Basins Commis-sion, tlic northeastern United States has 1,750 small unuseddams that could produce I ,000 Megawatts if fully exploited. Ifthes dams were renOvated with money borrowed at a 7 per-

_ cent irterest rate, with the understandink that power would be

i 199

4


sold at 4.5v per kilowatt-hour, 5o percent of their potentialcould be harnessed economically. If government kept the inter-est rate at 3 [iercent and paver were sold at 6.70 per kilowatt-hour, 8o percent of the potential could be developed.57

Boil.; public and private efforts to restoresmall dams areafoot. In the United States, gmiernment encourages the trendin two ways. It grants tax bene:its that ire twice is higlfasindstindustrial investments receive.and reduces the regulatory bur-den on small-dain developers, most of_whom are small farmers,small firms, or townships. Ultimately even more important isthe Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act of 1978, one sectionof which requirei utilities to buy power from small powerproducers at fair rates. As a result, applications for permits to

"produce powera good measure of hydro development inter-est if not actual constructionhave shot up dramatically from6 in 1976 to 1,900 in 1981.58

Although public attention in the U.S. has recently focusedon renovating small, abandoned dams, even more energy isavailable at medium and, large dams that have never been usedfor power production. Risiqz power rates havennade electricitygeneration economical at 4nany flood-control and irrigationdams. While estimates of potential vary widely, 44poo mega-watts is probably a conservative figure. Since the federal gov-ernment owns most of these,dams, tapping this,potential will

require the government either to invest directly or to allowprivate firms access to the dams."

Opportunities to boost hydropower's contribution to na-tional energy budgets also exist at dams that already generatepower. Upgrading the power-generating rapacity of _dams

makes even more sense as the costs of alternative fuels rise andturbine technology advances. At the Grand Coulee Dam onthecolumbia Rivern the United States, for example, one newsuperefficient generator has been installed and two more maybe added. In Switzerland hydroelectric prdduction could be

0

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. ,Rivers of Energy ,L, te....,..187

increased by zo percent if up-to- e turbines and generators,were installed on its dams, some of which date back to the

° ;-floos. California could increase power output by raising thegiant 70o-foot Lake Shasta Dam an extra zoo feet, thoughbuying property along reservoir Shorelines and relocating peo-ple who have built there would be costly.°

In regions where most Of the favorable sites have beentapped and where thermal power plants are numerous, hydrofacilities can be turned into what are known as "pealing" and44 pumped*storage" units. Since demand for electricity varieswidely over time, sources,that cansipe easily turned off or on areneeded t'o meet demand peaks. Since the water stored behinda dam can be rieased at any time, hydroelectric plants canbecome sources of peaking power if additional turbines areinstalled Panped storage facilities further exploit water's flexi-bility as an energy Source by using oft-peak power from con-tinuously running coal and nuclear plants to pump water uphillinto storage reservoirs. As needed, water is released to run baCk 4downhill through the turbines, which recoup two-thirds of theenergy used for pumping. Worldwide, some 37,000 megaWattsof these energY-storing facilities have been built so far.61 ,

P aking units and pumped storage facilities do hive theird wbacks. Pumped storage plants tend to be large, exPensive,a d difficult to sile. Fluctuating water releases erode shore1 nes, impede navigation, and disrupt fish lifo, More important,it probably cVs less to lower peak demand with conservationand utility load-maRagembnt techniques than it does to meetpeak demarid with hydro' peaking units. ,,

Where hydroelectric regimes are mature, only institutionalinerta stands lin the way of a fuller use of hydropower. Tim.Soviet .Union, .rnany European nations, and especially the

? United -States . could all rehabilitate small dams to acquireneeded power. The .technology is timeltested, the economicincentive clear.

2 01/ 4.

l188 , Renewable Energy

The, Hydropower Prospect versa\

As economically appealing as hydropower is, favorable econom-ics alone is.not enough. Political, financial, and environmentalobstacles stand in the way. Also key is government's uniquecatalytic role, since rivers are everywhere publicly owned andsince wiler projects touch upon so many aspecti of life. Withpublic resistance to government initiatives mounting and sup-port for development aid declining, only committed and far-sighted political leadership can get world hydropower potentialdeveloped.

-A

So great is hydropower's potential that theoretically it couldmeet all the world's electricity needs, though of course aridlands have virtually no resources. Even quadrupling global hy-droelectric productiona realistic goalwould yield roughlyas much electricity as the world currently consumes,certainly

Iv,enough to permit electricity use to grow for many years andto eliminate the need to build most of "the coal and nuclearpower plants energy planners favored in the wake of the oil-

price revolution Of the seventies. In some countries and regionshydropower can meet most oralliidditional electricity needs.Quebec is seriously considering building a fully electrified econ-omy based on water power, while the heavily oil-dependentCentral American countries have, enough untapped hydro andgeothermal resources to become energy self-sufficient. CostaRica, for example, already gets 35 percent of itvenergy iromhydroelectric plants a'nd'94 percent of its hydro potential re-mains untapped.62'

Some nations have enough hydropower to become electric-ity exporCers.' Having tapPed the swift-flowing headwaters ofEurope's riVers in' the Alps, Switzerland sells electricity 'toFrance and Italy. Nepal and Peru are similarly blessed withabundant hydropower resour.ces, still largely untapped. Nepalcould become the Switzerland of Asia, exporting electricity tothe Indian subcontinent. Where distance makes transmission

2 02

)

Rivers of Energy

of electrieify inpractical, hydro-rich countries can export suchenergylintens e products as aluminum 63

The pace ol hydropower development efforts.varies greatlyfrom nation to nation and continent to continent. (See Figure8. 1.) North America, the Soviet Union, and Europe all havesubstantial projects 'Manned or underway. Among the sleepinggiants of hydropowerAsia, South Awerica, and AfricaSouth Amalica, led by Brazil, has come 'farthest."

BecauseTydropower plants, dpecially large ones, take yearsto plan and construct, short-term projections can be made withsome confidence. Aspf 1980 some 123,000 megawatts of hydro

capacity were under constructioIn and another 239,800 mega-

.,watts planned. When all these plants are completed by theturn of the century, Worldwide hydroelectric output. will betoughly double what it is today. But even then, no mote thanOne-third of the power that could feasibly be tapped will have

189.

Europe

NorthAmerica

S S.R

Asra

SouthAmerica

Africa

1.1 Operating

ED Under Construction

Plaimed

SOUK( \\ odd I it rg% UArt.ncc

20 40 . 60

Percent developed

Figure 8.14.Status of Hydropower Development, by Region, 1980.

SO

203

100


been brought On line. By the yea4 2020, the World' EnergyConference optimistically projects, hydropower will supplysome 8 trillion kilowatt-bours of power, almost six times thepresent level. But this potential won't materialize unless sucheconomically impoverished Put , resource-rich:, countries asZaire, China, and Nepal attract investment capital and createmarkets for hydroelectricity.65

Financing aside, environmental Problems may well pace fu-ture hydropower development. In industrial countries the de-

,.

sire to preserve prime agricultural land and unique scenic -andrecreational resources has already made some large hydrO sitesoff limits. In developing countries environmental catastrophiesnow unfolding in some regions could damage or destroy thehydropower capacity in others. Unless soil erosion and siltationare checked, the hydropower investments of many ThirdWorld countries would be for nought. ,

Not just dams, but basin-wide development and resourcemanagement will have to be the Cornerstones of future hydro-power prograMs. Local labor will have to be called upon andrewarded for tree planting and erosion control. And nationswill have to take the 'codevelopment of large and small waterprojects' as a signal rule.

I

. .,

e

,

1

I./ II,

./

9

Wind Power 'A. Turning Point

/

Wind poWer returns as a breath of fresh air to the worldenergy scene. Its use is already economical in some regions, andplans for harnessing wind are proliferating in many countries.As. technologies and production techniques evolve, wind ma-chines more gliable and less expensive than current modelswill further widen wind power's* use. ,

Today's wind machines range from simple water-pumpingdevices Made of wood and cloth to large, sleekly contouredelectricity-generating turbines with ioo-meter blade spans. InAustralia 'and parts of Africa, Asia, and Latin America, wind-

, driven irrigation pumps are enjoying a renaissance. So too aresail-diiven commercial ships in many coastal areas. Smaltelec-. .

..

'2 0 5

A

, 1 *


tricity-gener;ting machines are also becoming more popular,particularly in North America and northern Eurdpe. For largewind turbine§sophisticated new machines with coniputer-based control systemsthe energy market will take somewhatlonger to open ul), but fheirilon.g-term potential to generateinexpensive electricity appeais immense.

The conditions are ripe for _wind power. dut as with mostother renewable energy sources, pear-term sucfess is by nomeans assured. Ambitious government research programs ac-count for much of the progress achieved so far, and decisionsby some gOernments to trim support.for wind energy in tbeearly eighties have slowed development. Yet even without gov-ernment funding wind power development Would probablyslow rather than stop, so great is the momentum it acquiredduring the last decade. Indeed, wind power researchers andbusinessmen are certain that the wind will yield substantia4'._.,--1amounts of electricity and direct mechanical power before theturn of the century.

Harnessing the Wind

Wind is bOrn of sunlight, which falls unevenly on di'fferentareas of the earth and thus heats the atmosphere unevenly.Since warm air weighs less than cool air and tends to rise, airmoves One large air-circulation system consists of cool polarair being drawn toward the tropics to replace lighter, warmer .air that rises and then moves toward the poles. Amid this flow,high and low pressure zones develop naturally and give rise tothe persistent trade winds in the tropics, the polar easterlies,and the westerlies that traverse the northern and southerntemperate regions. Similarly, coastal winds and such regionalturbulence as the Asian monsoons result as tool ocean air flowsinland to replace the rising warm air'.1

Of the solar energy that falls on the earth, only z percentbecomes wind power.2 But this small fraction represents far

Wiud Power: A Turning Point 193

more energy than humanity uses in a year. Of course, Mostwinds occur at high 'altitudes or over the oceans whdre)hey dociv ilization little good. Even the most ambitious wind-energysehemes would tap only a small fraction of the total resourcecomparable to occasionally lifting a bucket of watr out ofthe oceans.

Harnessing the wind'i"-energy is not, obviously, a new idea.

Since the dawn of history, sailing ships have transported gOodsand people, opening up new lands and carrying invading armiesto distant shores. Windmillsmachines that capture thewind's power to perform mechanical taskswere dei./eloped.later, though when and where no one is sum. Windmills firstcame into wide use in Persia around zoo B.C. Thqse relativelypriTitiVe machines were used to grind grain, ahractice thatlater spread throughout the Middle East. Similar deyices camel.on the scene in China at about the same the.3

Windmills were introduced in Europe sometime'before thetwelfth century, apparently by returning crusaders. They foundtheir place first in grain grinding and later in wood sawing,paper making, and agricultural drainage. Europe's windmillswere horizontal-axis machines made of wood. Their driveshafts were parallel to the ground, and each machine had fourlarge blades. Gears connected the spinning shaft to a grindingstone or another mechanical dev'ice. This design eventuallyevolved into the Dutch Windmill most people think of as-theprototype. Sophisticated versions .of the Dutch model werefound throughout Europe by the fifteenth centiiiy. Along withwaterwheels, they greatly boosted the productivity of agrarianeconomies and cleared the way for the industrial revolution. Intheir heyday in the seventeenth century, windmills numberedabout m,000 in England And i.z,000 in Holland.4,

European industrialists and traders abandoned windMillsand sailing ships in the early nineteenth century as coal-firedsteam engines became widdy used. HoWever, pioneers in ius-tralia And North America held fast to windmills as the only

207


means of obtaining precious irrigation and drinking water.Small horizontal-axis machines with a dozen or more metal.blades were developed, and an estimated 6 million water-pupping devices were built in the United States in the late

'nihteenth century. According to wind-machine expert PeterFraenkelathe windmill was, as important as the Colt revolver.in opening the American West to cattle ranching.5

An electricity:generating wind machine wassdeveloped inDenmark in 1890, opening up a range of new uses for windpower. Not long after, engineers realized that to generate elec-tricity efficiently fewer and thinner blades were needed. Thesletlk new machines they developed found a wide market inDenmark, the United States, and a few other countries duringthe twenties and thirties. Most were used to electrify faimi.6

From the thirties onward, rural electrification sounded thedeath knell for wina machines in much of the world. Newhydroelectric dams and power plants that burned fossil fuelscould sell electricity cheaply, partly because they benefitedfrom government subsidies. North American fumes were en-couraged by newly formed electric cooperatives to tear &Owntheir windmills. A handful of inventors let them stand, how-ever, and even during mid-century when the cost of electricitywas low, a few countries launched projects to develop larger,more economical wind turbines. Researchers in Britain, Den-mark, France, the Soviet Union, the United States, and WestGermany designedwind turbines with over 20-meter longblades and.more than ioo kilowatts of generating capacity.7Yet the rapid development of nuclear reactors and other decid-edly modern energy technologies made even new sophisticatedwind machines seem somehow antiquated.

It took the energy shocks of the seventies to spur a windpower revival. Since 1973 dozens of small wind-machine manu-facturers have entered the business, and both private compa-nies and national goveinments have carried out research onlarger, .more sophisticated turbines.

2 8

Wind Power: A Turning Point '195

The engineering elegance of the new machines hints atwind power's still-untapped potential The blades of a modernwind machine typically occupy only a small space. Yet theoreti-cally they can harness up to 59 percent of the Wind passingthrough the area they sweep. Operating wind,, machines neverapproach the ideal but are usually zo to 30 percent.efficienthigh compared with other energy-conversion technologies.Given the amount of energy they capture, both the materialand energy requirements for the manufacture of wind ma-chines are impressiNely low. Most wind machines generateas much energy as they take to manufacture in less than 5 years-2---much quicker than most ot4er conventional or solar tech-nologies.8

The.amount of energy available in the wind depends on itsspeed The amount increases eightfold eNery time wind speeddoubles, so wind at 12 miles per hour contains fully 70 percentmore power than wind at ro miles per hour. A difference ofjust two miles per hour can, therefore, make or break a wind-energy project. At present, average wind speeds of 12 miles perhour or greater are needed to operate an electricity-producingwind machine economically, though rirclanical water-pump-ing wind, machines work fine where winds average only eightmiles Pe? hour.9

Since wind availability varies greatly by region, each "wind-prospecting" country needs an accurate reading of the size ofthe resource .and its distribution. Initial,assessments in NorthAmerica and Western Europe indicate that in most northerntemperate regions there are many areas with sufficient wind .togenerate electricity economically. Mountain passes and coast-lines in these regions appear exceptionally fertile. In both tropi-cal and temperate regions, average wind speeds of 12 miles perhour are fairly common, and many high-potential sites with fargreater winds have been pinpointed. And no country is com-pletely windlessan important point considering how manyhive no coal, oil, or uranium.10

209,

196 Renewable Energy - /

A Rertaissance for Wind Pumps,

The technology tat opened the American West in the nine-teenth century may turn out to be a lifesaver for the world'ssemiarid regions during the late twentieth. Diesel pumps area costly means of drawing up the water so desperately neededfor irrigation, livestock watering, and general household use indeveloping countries, and wind pumps now appear to be aviable alternative. In fact for drawing water, wind power is akperfect match. 'When it is windless, water users can simplydraw on water pumpedt into p storage tank on windy days.Storing water is of course far less expensive than storing elec-tricity.

Approximately one million mechanical vrind pumps are in

1use today. Most are located in Argentina, Australia, and theVnited States, where they mainly provide water for livestock. i.Since most mechanical wind machines have an eneracapacityof less than half a kilowatt, the world's wind pumps supply atbest a few hundred thousand kilowatts of powerless than one

14, late .thermal power plant." Yet mechanical wind pumps playa crucial role. Imagine, for example, the cost and difficulty ofgetting coal-fired electricity to isolated rdnches in the Aus-.

0 tralian outback. .

.Most mechanical wind machines use anyw e fro four fotwenty blades .to capture the wind's eller , wh is then

' *transferted by a drive shaft to a pumpin tp anism. Themost common w' d pump in use today is fnerican multi-bladed fan- machine. Heir t e o zontal-axis design <that dotted the plains in the ninetenth c ntury, this ruggedmachine will operate effectively at average wind speech belowten miles per hour. Most of the machine's parts, including theblades, are made of metal, and the diameter varies from twoto several meters. Costs tun from around $4,000 io over000 per unit.12

Most wind-machine manufacturers are in Argentina, Aus-..

1

(Wind Power A Turning Point 197

tralia, and the United States, though wind-pump industries canbe found in New Zealand, the Philippines, South*.frica, andWest Germany, too. Although sales plummeted during thefifties and sixties, particularlyrin the United States, the industryremains strong in Australia and South Afric.a, where windpumps are standard equipment on farms and where spare parts

. and repair services are readily Ivailable.13Since the early seventies, the market for wind pumps has

again begun to grow. But it remains concentrated in regionswhgre wind machines have been in long use:- Modern largefarms and deep wells require More pdmping capacity than mostwindmills can supply, so many farmers have been slow to adoptthe technology. Wind pumps could. be used widely in develop-ing countries, but efforts_to import machinesjor developmentprojects have frequentl,' foundered becausc.the designs werepoorly suited to local wind availability, economic needs, orsocial customs. Many wind purnps go ojt of commission forwant of a few minor spare parts or an oil change. In one projectin Zainbia, local people eventually dismantled, imported wind-mills piece by piece for use for other purposes.14

Solving these problems would bottilassure a larg role foiwind pumps and raise rural villagers' living standard . In areaswith average wind speeds of at least io miles per hour, windpowet already can provide pumped water for small-scale usesat approximately half the cost of diesel poWer. Recent studiesround that eveh in the less windy parts of India, wind pumpsare now cheaper to use than diesel pumps.15

Research bn "Wind pumps for Third World use has picked upspeed -in recent years and ,has tteen carried out mainly byprivate nonprdfit organizations supported by national govern-ments and internationaLaid agencies. These windmill develop-ment projects have relied on materials that are both cheap andlocallg available, an approach that directly involves and benefitsthe rural poor. Wind pumps stand as a prime example of whatE. F. Schumacher called an "intermediate technology"one

x.)

211


that vmploys modern engineerihg and yet is well matched tothe needs of the rural poor, providing jobs and creating self-reliant communities.

In particular, the sailwing or Cretan windmill, first devel-oped in the Creek islands but noiv used for irrigation in severalMediterranean countries and Thailand, lends itself teautifullyto local ,manufacttire out of indigenous materials. Improvedversions have been built in Colombia, Ethiopia, Carribia,India, and the United States to meet the needs of small farm-ers. Another innovative design based on traditional (vindmillsis the Savonius rotor, a vertical-axis machine tYpically made oftwo oil-drum halves mounted'around a perpendicular shaft soas to catch the wind.16

Some researchers and government planners are now workingbut ways to make wind machines an integral part of rural .development and to build an indigenous manufacturing capa-bility. Las Caviotas, a rural development institute in Colombia,has spent six years designing a reliable and inexpensive fan-typewindmill that eumps domestic or irrigation water in low winds.Aproduction facility has been built that turns out twenty-five4indm ills per day, ani the national government is helping fundthe placement of th wind machines throughout rural Co-lombia. A similar strategy is used by the London-based Inter-mediate Technology Develliment Cioup (ITDC), which hasdeveloped a prototype fan windmill it &ipes local industries in \many poor countries will one day manufactuteready, Kijito,a small firm in Kenya, has begun trning ounTDC-designedwind machine.

Another camp of wind-power eiperts argues that for econ-. ornake wind-pump users themselves should build` the

pumps eut of local materials rather than waiting for an industryto groW up.18 In Thailand, where simple wind, pumps dre

widely used by small farmers, this approach has worked. Else-where a local commercial market will be needed. Whateverapproach is taken, it is sure that domestic manufacturing will

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Wind Power: A Turning Point 199 .

go farther toward providing employment and keeping costs lowthan importing-wind technologies will. Programs that trainpeople to install and repair wind machines.are also essentialaforany successful effort to introduce windniills. Agricultural coop,erativ es and extension serv ices may prove ideal for transferringthis know-how.

Clear Sailing

Another use of wind power even older than wind pumps is alsobeing revived. Fishermen and shipping companies lookipg toreduct fuel costs are adapting sails for tItir.vessels. Using new.desigds based 'on modern synthetic materials and computes-assisted contral systems, modern mariners are proving thatsailing boats can once again serve practical ends. A major stu4ysponsored by the U.S. Maritime Agency concluded in 19S1that a combination sail-and-diesel system is more economicalthan either used alone. (The power fraction provided by thewind should ideally be between 20 and 30 percent, dependingon how high the average winds are.n

The use of wind power appears mosl feasible on coastalcargo vessels anit fishing boats. Many suckcraft travel in areaswith steady winds, and their relatively smair size makes it easierto adapt sai.1 technology. The Phoenix, a 20-meter two-masted

.schooner launched in 1982; provides convenientdransportationfor passengers and c4nmercial gobds around Long IslandSound, with.a 20 to 25 percent fuel saiings. Another ship, the6o-meter Creek vessel Mini Lace, was chosen as one of the tenoutstanding engineering accomplishments of 1980 for its ener-gy-saving sail.retrofit. More difficult is harnessing wind poweron large vessels, but a Japanese company has already built asail-assisted 3,000-ton oil tanker and has plans to constrtict onethiee times its size.20

For developing countries sail-powered boats may have anespecially important role to play. The thousands of small

21 3

,

ZOO Renewable Energy

fishing and cargo vessels so essential to the economies of devel-oping natifvs with extensive coastlineilrat Lir/large amounts ofoil. 'Sailing vessels could/be the answer, as successful relianceon sail power in parts of the Philippines, and Sri Lanka showsIf the promise of such examples or the results of feasibilitystudies are arinmeasure, sails could again become a commonsight in the wbrld's commercial fleets. However, as LloydBergeson, a designer Of sail-power4d ships, noted in 1982, "Ittook us nearly a century to change from sail to steam, and itwill take a w,ile to change 'back again.!'21

Electricay'from Small Wind Machines

Although the wind has been used to generate electricity sincebefore the turn of the century, it has never been a widespreadpower source. Today change is in the air. 'Electricity priceincreases and technology iinprovements have given the smallwind turbine industry a new lease on life.

Befbre the seventies virtually all wind turbines were used atremote sites with no access to an electricity grid: The machinessmall and connected,to ,storage batterieswer*designedspecifically with that market in mind. Approximat* 2o,000direct-current wind turhines of this sort are in nse today at firelookouts, remote airfields, isolated ranches, coastal buoys, andthe like. Althoukh the power these wind machines generatecosts more than 200 per kilowatt-hour, other means of genera-

ting electricity in remote .areas cost eydn more.22

Tqlijay one of the most important technological and eco-nomic chagges afoot is the development ofwind power systenisthat do not require batteries. Modenftechnologies convert thedirect current produced by a wind turbine into alternatingcurrent that can be fed directly into the utility grid. Instead ofrelying on batteries or going without power when the wind diesdown, the user draws electricity from the utility's lines just likeother customer's do. When winds are high and' electricity needs

21 4

)r .'Wind Power A Turning Point 201

... _

low, excess power automatically enters the electric lines and issold to other customers.

Most of these recently developed wind turbines have a hpri-zontal axis and two to four blades that rotate at speeds that varywith the wind speed. Most face upwind of the tower with a tailmounted behind the rotor to maintain this position. A fewmddels face downwind, which eliminates the need for a tail,but can cause air turbulence phklems. With blades of metal,wood, or fiber glass, the new wind machines are stronger andlighter than older models. Most have blade diameters of 5meters or less and generating capacities of between 2 and 5kilowatts (enough to supply the power needed by a typicalmodern residence in a windy area). 'Interest is growing in some-what larger machines of up to 5o kilowatts that could be usedby farms or small industries.23

These new wind-energy systems are most popular in Den-mark and the United States, largely because of high winds, atradition of wind power use, and favorable "utility policies inboth countries. In the United States approximately fortymanufacturers field 2,400 small Wind machtnes in 1981. Yeteven in these countries the industry is ybung and subject tonormal growing pains. Some firms are barely surviving, sellingonly a handf14:of wind turbines a year, and the quality of themachines sold is still uneven.24

Wind turbine manufacturers are working hard to resolvethese difficulties. They are beginning to replace some "off theshelf" components with those engineered specifically for wind-turbine use, and both private industry and government pro-grams are aimed at increasing rotor efficiency and makingtransmissions and generators more reliable. Needed still arelightweight, inexpetisive, yet rugged blades and lightWeight,flexible toWers designed specifically for wind turbines.23

To break into the mass market wind machines must bereliable and have life spans of at least twenty years. Ned Coffinwhp, heads the Enertech Corporation, a leading U.S. firm,

215


notes. "The key to our business is making a windmill that isidiot proof. It has to be maintenance-free like an icebox." Thepace at which costs come down, sales expand, and reliabilityimproves will, of course, be deterMined in part by large-scaleproduction and assembly techniques. The largest firms in busi-ness today produce only a few hundred wind m'achines peryear, which means that each turbine is essentially handmade

)and that the wind-turbine fild is about as far along as the autoIndustry was before Henry Ford introduced the Model T.Manufacturing wind turbines on an assembly line would beeven easier than assembling cars. On a production line severalthousand wind machines a year could be turned out at substan-tially -rduced costs, even if the technology were not otherwiseimproved.26

Today a typical household-sized wind energy system or 3 to5 kilowatts costs between $5,000 and $20,000 and generateselectricity for upward of 150 per kilowatt hour. At this pricewind-generated electricity costs between 50 and ioo percentmore than electricity from a central grid, so further cost reduc-

#--:tions are clearly needed. Yet wind-turbine researchers believethat technological improvements such as those just describedcould bring generating costs down to approximately 50 to iooper kilowatt hour where the wind averages 1 2 miles per hour.Then small wind turbines would enjoy a huge market in manyareas of the world.27

Designs still being investigated could turn out to be bothmore effective and less expensive than the best conventionalmachines marketed today. Vertical-axis wind machines resem:bling miniature merry-go-rounds are already being marketed byone company in Great Britain and another in the UnitedStates, though these machines' commercial future dependsheavily on further research. Another promising alternative, thesailwing turbine developed at Princeton University, has twocurved blades made of wire and cloth. Private industry and

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Wind Power: A Turning Point 203

several governments are testing a number of other designs thatmay one day reach the market.28

One particularly promising idea has yet to receive the atten-tion it deservesusing wind turbines to heat water for spaceheating. Recently developed "heat churns" that use 'mechani-cal power to heat water are well suited for use with a rotatingwind turbine. In windy regions such a device would even nowbe cheaper than electric resistance heating, and soon it maycost less than fossil-fuel heating in most regions. In Canada andnorthern Europe, where heating needs are great and winterwinds strong, wind-powered churns could be ideal.29

Wind Power for Utilities

Quintessentially.glecentralized, wind may nevertheless powercentralized energy systems operated by or for utilities in thecoming decades. By clustering large numbers of wind turbinesin areas where wind speeds average 14 to 20 miles per hour,"wind farmers" can generate electricity for transmission toindustrial and urban areas. Since most areas with such extra-ordinary winds are only thinly inhabited, wind farms representthe only way the energy potential of these regions can betapped,.

One step in making wind farms a reality is technological.Large turbines appear to have an important long-run advantagefor use on wind farms since they are -cheaper to build on aper-kilowatt basis and they can more fully exploit a windysite." Since the early seventies engineers in several countrieshave been working to develop technologically sophistic'atedturbines that would dwarf those Don Quixote charged at laMancha.

Typically, a wind machine is considered large if its capacityis ioo kilowatts or more, but several machines capable of gener-ating at least 1,000 to 4,000 kilowatts (1 to 4 megawatts) are

217

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Renewable Energy

in the works. Along with various machines with capacities ofzoo to i,000 kilowatts, five types of multirnegawatt wind ma-chines are currently being developed in three countries. Thelargest of these machines could generate sufficient power forover i,000 typical U.S. homes or for perhap's twice as manyresidences in -countries where electficity use is lower. Yet itwould take a wind farm with 500 of these large turbines togenerate as much power as one of the large thermal power

,plants in use today."

In basic appearance large and small turbines are quite simi-lar. But other differences are great. Large wind machines, es-sentially an aerospace techno1og4, require meticulous engineer-ing. Their blades are typically as long as a jumbo jet's wingsusually nv.0 .56. metersand the latest computer 'technologycontrols.tbOlades' angle and rotational speed. The stressinnthese Vales 'is enormous, so designing them to hold uP inbeavy winds has been a world-class engineering challenge forthe high-technology firms that dominate the business. In boththe United States and Europe engineers who cut their teethon jet aircraft technology are directing large-turbine research.

,efforts.32

The United States has been a pioneer in the deyelopmentof large wind machines. In 1975 the U.S. National Aeronauticsand Space Administration (NASA) began contracting withprivate firms to develop a series of large horizontal-axis tur-bines. Under the Department of,Energy's supervision this plo-gram has resulted in a commercial effort to install thirty-six3,5oo-kilowatt turbines at'a wind farm in dalifornia for $400million. Designed by Boeing, these breathtaking machines(called Mod-2s) have two narrow bladet that describe an arcnearly loo meters in diameter. On a clear day the turbines canbe seen from five miles awa .33

..

Plans for other, more adv ced but less expensive windturbines are continuing but have een slowed by the Reaganadministration. Meanwhile, howev r, two U.S. companies-

-

21 8

Wind Power: A-Turning Point 205. .

the Bendix Company and the Hamilton Standard Corporationhave developed large wind machines. These turbines are atthe prototype stage, but early perforthance data indicate thattheY too could yield poWer that competes economically withthat from conventional power plants. The key to unlockingthat potential is to improve the reliability of the large windmachines'-particuliMy their capacity to operate safely inunusually high windsso that.they can become standard litii-ity equipment.34

Since the U.S. program was launched, Canada, Denmark,Great Britain, the, Jo etherlands, the Soyiet Union, Sweden, andWest Germany hlte begun to develop large turbines. One of

A

the most impressive efforts is taking place in Denmark, whereengineers hope a 630-kilowatt machine they have designed willsoon be used widely on Denmark's coast. In England TaylorWoodrow Construction, Ltd., a major engineering firm thatalso builds nuclear powei plants, is under government contractto design a ,Ooo-kilowatt wind turbine that could be massproduced e late eighties.35

Another esigñ, the Darrieus wind turbine, is also cominginto its own. The governments of Canada and the UnitedStates have separately financed the development of this "up-iide-down eggbeater." With two or three, curved aluminumblades turning a central upright shaft attached to a ground-based transmission and generator, the Darrieus works well inhigh winds. 'the blades extend close to the ground where lesswind is available, however, and they must withsta'nd varyinglevels of force as they pass in and out of the "eye" of the wind.It is still uncertain whether Darrieus machines will ever enjoywide use.36

As research on electricity-producing machines continues,utilities are looking for ways to make use of arrays of large windmachines on wind farms. As of 1981, 1 io U.S. utilities hadwind-energy 'programs, up from just 50 in 1979. Althougli mostare just small demonstration projects or feasibility studies, sev-

4

21 9

, 206 Renewable Energy

. ,

eral utilities are on the verge of making major commitinents towind power. In Great Britain the Central Electricity Genera-ting Board is seriously studying the nation's potential for windfarm use. Iri the Netherlandrtfl e. national electricity associa-tion, SEP, is developing a io-megawatt experimental windfarm and plans to use wind power to generate 7 percent of thecountry's electricity in the year 2000.37 -

Meanwhile, commereial development of wind farms hasbegun in the United States. The world's first wind farm beganoperation in Vermont in 1981, relying on 30-kilowatt turbines-developed by U.S. Windikwer, Inc. Since the , over twentywind farm contracts have been signed, including one for a large80-megawatt project in Hawaii and one for ft 125-megaWattproject in northern California.38

California is clearly the.world's pio er in wind farming.Blessed with mountain passes and other ideal wind sites, Cali-fornia also has a state government keen enough on wind toenact its own wind-energy tax credits, conduct wind resourceassessments, and require utilitieito buy power from wind farmsat a fair price. By the end of 1982 California had 1,000 windmachines with a total capacity of 6e; megawatts located at a,dozen windifarms, and the industry continues to grow explO-sively. Most of these wind farms employ small and medium-sized turbines, each with a capacity of between io and rookilowatts, but large rnukimegawatt turbines will be used atsome projects now in the planning stages. The California En-ergy Commission's go' al is for the state tO have 700 megawattsof wind farms by 1987. and 4,000 megawatts by the 'end of the'century.30 .

Much of the early work in developing wind farms in Caldor-nia and elsewhere in the United States is being carried out bysmall innovative firms f o ed wecifically to tap this poWersource. Companies such a§ U.S. Windpower, Inc. and Wind-farms Limited have starte signing contracts with utility com-panies to supply wind-generated electricity at the same price

22 0

t


as power from newly built conventional plants. Themnall wind-energy entrepreneurs typically locate their own financing andlease the land on which the machines are constructed. Aidedby generous federal and state tax incentives, these firms caninvest in new power sources that utilities will not develop ontheir own. For the utilities, tapping the wind in this manneris of course risk-free,.so entrepreneurialism bridges.,the institu-tional gap that poses the largest rentaining barrier to windpowees widespread use.

The economic verdict on wind farms is now clear. If well-designed wind machines are placed at good wind sites, electric-ity can already be generated for as little as too per kilowatthour. In parts of California, the North American Midwest,northern Europe, and many developing countries where oil-generated electricity is common, wind farms are close to beingeconomically viable now. \Vhen wind farms employ later gen-erations of mass-produced wind power technologies, studies inEurope and the United States indicate they will be able toprodtice electricity that costs between 30 and 70 per kilowatthour. By the dineties wind farms,will likely have an economicadvantage over coal and nuclear power plants in many parts ofthe world. Until then, what is most needed is More work aimedat increasing these machines' reliability.°

Obstacles and Opportunities

Of course, even wind power's economic appeal does not sealits future. The environmental 'impact of large wind machindas well as the effect of wind power on utility company planningloom as important constraints. Then, too, outdated govern-ment policies could impede the spread of wind machines, andfew nations have fully Charted their wind resources or launchedadequate research programs.

As with many energy technologies, the land-use effects ofwind machines arc key determinants of their acceptability.

221

p


Historfh and emironmentalist Roderick Nash has observed,"Most people do not yet fully realize that obtaining a meaning-ful amount of power from the wind involves far more than afew picturesque structures surrounded by tulip beds." Indeed,a wind farm with a generating capacity equivalent to that ofa 1,000 megawatt power plant would require approximately 82square kilometers of land. Meeting the California goal of pro-viding io peicent of the state's generating capacity with windfirms requires placing between io,000 and ioo,000 wind ma-chines on approximately 615 square kilometers (two-tenths of

percent of the state's land area). More generally, then, wind-rich countries should be able to get up to half of their electric-ity from wind machines that will occupy no more than 1percent of their Iand.41

The most important land-use issUe surrounding wind powerdevelopment is not the total amount of land needed. Instead,it is the potential for ruining scenic wilderness areas or otherhighly valued land: Clearly, many areas must be kept off limitsfor wind machines. -However, detailed wind assessments showthat many good sites exist on land used only for livestockgrazing, an activity quite compatible with wind fartning.42Even large wind turbines are graceful and relatively nondisrup-tive structures, so dual land use shoold be possible outside ofnational parks and other scenic areas. Countries with amplewind should be able to get between io and 25 Percent of theirelectticity from the wind without running up against seriousland-use constraints.

Noise and safety concerns are another matter. Annoyingsounds and inaudible vibrations have been a problem withsome experimental wind machines. These problems are avoid-able, and wind machine designers are now working to ensurethat wind turbines are quiet neighbors. As for safety factors,they will prevent the installation of wind turbines in manydensely populated communities. Blade loss is the greatest dan-ger, and even small machines can inflict harm if they fall apart

222

Wind Power &Turning Point 209,

in a heavy wind. Manufacturing and installation codes areclearly needed and some communities have adopted regula-tions to prevent wind machines from being set up too close toa neighbor's property: Many cities will probably want to banwind devices entirely, especially considering how paltry windpotential is in mpst urban areas.43 .

Television interferenee is another problem, particularly withlarger turbines with metal blades. Usually, the effect is, quitelocalized, though some large experimental wind machines havecaused video distortion a few kilometers away. Some recentlydeveloped wind maChines have fiberglass blades, largely Solvingthe pioblem. Another more exiiensive remedy is to install cabletelevision in the affected areas. This problem clearly needsmore work, and unless resolved, television interference couldimpede wind power development in some areas.44

In U.S. communities where wind turbines have already beenerected and public opinion surveys have been carried out, themachines have been well received, so long as there is no noiseor television interference.45 In environmental terms, wind en-ergy is a refreshing contrast to air-polluting coal plants andpotentially dangerous nuclear reactors. However, the use ofvirtually all technologies entails trade-offs, and continued at-tention t wind power's environmental impact will be ess'thitialif wind to be a major and welcomed energy source. Eneourag-

. ingly, such concerns are being aired early.Another critical influence on wind power's future is electric

utility policy. The most economical way to use wind generatorsis to connect them to electricity grids. Yet utility inteiest inwind poweris halfhearted in most regions. Utilities are accus-tomed to investing only in established, risk-free technologies,and wind_ machines are only now beginning to meet thosecriteria. At the same time, many utility managed view windpower as a threat to utilities' monopoly on power production.As a result, some have enacted unnecessarily stringent require-ments for wind machine owners who want to interconnect

. 223


with:the electricity gtid. Others will pay only low rates for thepower produced by wind machines:Even in California govern-ment had to pressure utilities to use wind power. True, the useof wind erTgy presents some new challenges for utility plan-ning, but.none is insurmountable. The overriding point is thatutilities hard-pressed to finance additional capacity stand togain by hooking up with small power producers who could savethem the initial invystment. And soon wind power will be lessexpensive than coal and nuclear power.

Some skeptics argue that utilities need a more dependable,less intermittent source than wind to bcost their capacity. Butthese critics tend to overlook the unexpected plant shutdownsthat make even córentional power plants much less than ioo

.percent reliable. Nuclear power plants'in the United Statesoperate on the average at only about 50 percent of theirlatedcapacity. A single shutdown of such a large plant causes havocfor utility managers ,who must always have some generatingcapacity in reserve just in case. Similarly, wind machines some-times do not operate because of a lack of wind, but this prob-lem can be reduced if thousands of wind machines are spreadover a wide area. If developed carefully, wind power can pro-vide reliable electricity and actually add strength to utilitygrids."

A few progressive utility companies have already begun plan-ning how best to integrate wind power into their electricitygrids. One promising strategy is to operate wind turbines inconjunction with hydropower plants. By operating the hydrofacilities at full capacity when the wind is not blowing and byslowing them down wheh the breezes are abundant, utilitiescan derive maximum benefit from wind machines. The north-western United States, the James Bay region of eastern Can-ada, most of Scandinavia, and parts of the Soviet Union allhave large hydropower and wind power resources located

6, nearly side by side.47 Also essential to successful integration ofwind power with a utility grid are electricity pricing policies

22 4

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Wind Power A Turning Point 211

that encourage the use of power when it costs least to produce--,--that is, when the wind is blowing.

Government support is also needed for the succesgui devel-opment of wind power. The large strides being made in Den-mark and California would not have been possible without taxcredits. Tax incentives reduce the investment risk and thusstimulate the early development of the Wind power industry.Similar subsidies -elsewhere in the World could for relativelysmall sums make the wind power industry strong and indepen-dent. Pioneeiing countries could find themselves with an im-portant new export technology to boot.

Also deserving of government financial support are programsfor introducing wind pumps and turbines in the rural ThirdWorld. Already, many developing country governments andinternational aid agencies finance the import of diesel enginesand other technologies that are more expensive and less reliablethan wind machines. Such agencies could also help individualsand _communities buy windmills and help local industries ac-quire the means to manufacture them.

So far, most government support for wind power has 'beenthrough research and development programs, mainly on largewind machines. Although many, of these programs have en-countered technical problems, steady progress since the earlyseventies has resulted in the development of several large,commercially ready wind machines.

To support development of wind pumps and small turbines,governments have done much less. Some say these machinesare simpler and already highly develoiied, and thus require lessassistance. While this is true, it fails to justify the huge dispar-ity in funding levels, especially when pne considers the contri:bution these smaller machines could make. Unfortunately,most governments seem attracted almost exclusively to high-technology utility-oriented research programs. Still, manycountrie§ have in_recent years begun small-wind-power devel-opment projects. Denmark 'and the United States have helped

225


industry by establishing test centers that allow private compa-nies to test their small wind turbines free of chargea movethat helps consumers too. Cooperation between manufacturersand government on other aspects of the design and use of smallwind machines.would certainly assist the spreid of this technol-ogy.48

Although- government support for winci energy technologyexpanded throughout the seventies, it has recently stagnatedand even fallen. Particularly dramatic are the cuts in the U.S.wind energy programthe world's largest. From a peak of $6omillion in 1980 the U.S. wind power R & D budget was cutto $35 million in 1982ironically, just as the wind powerindustry was reaching the critical take-off stage. Yet by goingbeyond traditional basic research and channeling funds intoadvanced engineering modificatiOns and demonstration pro-jects, government could help companies to commercializewind machines much sooner than they' otherwise would."

, Unfortunately such programs have been almost eliminated by.the Reagan administration's budget cutters. In some cases thereductions are akin to stopping work on a bridge only a fewmeters short of completion. \

Another important task for governments is wind resourceassessments. Wind iurveys have been carried out haphazardlyso far, so knowledge is sketchy. Because the amount of-windavailable is critical and can vary widely over short distances,governments need, to publish general information on theamount of wind inon area, as well as lend wind-measuringequipment to individuals or utility companies evaluating a par-ticular location. Such inventories will he essential in mappingout wind-energy development programs, and they could helpmobilize buiiness support for these efforts.

In California wind assessments helped energy offiCials revisetheir opinion of the state's wind-power potential. Because earlyestimates were based on data recor ed at airports whose loca-tions are chosen in part because thy lack wind, California's

2 26'


wind potential had been underestiMated. More thoroughmeteorological calculations revealed a verttable treasure. Cali-fornia's wind piospectors have already found sites for windfarms the could together generate 5,500 megawatts, mainly inwindy mountain passes that are relatively unpopulated and yetreasonably close to urban centers. Now "wind prospecting" isa growing business in California, and in some parts the stateearly assessments have set off a small land rush."

The international sharing of information onlwind availabil-ity and of ways to obtain the data could boost wind powerdevelopment significantly, particularly in poor countries. Not,inventorying its own wind resources, the United States will 1rin a good position to help other nations do the same. The U.N.WorTd Meteorological Organization has also become involvedin wind-energy assessments, publishing in 1981 a map showingthe general world distribution of wind resources.51 This agencyand relevant professional organizations could adopt standard-iied assessment procedures and information channels, as agri-cultural and scientific research centers now do.

Wind's Energy Prospect

While detailed Wind data is still scarce, enough informationhas been collected to assess the wind energy prospect broadly.By almost any account, simple mechanical windmills hold tre-mendous promise for areas where lifting water is a criticalenergy need. Since wind pumps can be used.effectively wherewind speeds average as low as eight miles per hour, they canbe used on well oyer half the earth's' land area. Most countriescan make at least,limited use of mechanical wind pumps, andin such semiarid regions as East Africa, the Indian subconti-nent, northern Argentina, northeast Brazil, Mexico, and Peru,they could be a godsend. Only in tropical areas that lack goodtrade winds is their use out of the question.52

How widely wind pumps are used will depend primarily on

227


efforts to make them available and get them adopted in ThirdWorld countries. Success will come first where wind pumps arewell matched to current water needsparts of southern Asiawhere small-plot agriculture is practiced and parts of Africawhere brief but heavy rains could fill reservoirs with water thatcould be putped for irrigation during the windy dry months.Agricultural extension services and rural cooperatives can _pro-vide the institutional impetus for such projects, while nationalgovernments and international aid agencies can provide thefinancial muscle.

How much energy these wind pumps could supply is difficultto estimate.,.Compared to major commercial energy sources,the amount is probably not large. Btit in terms of the numberof people whose lives could be improved, the contributionwould be tremendous. By the middle of the next century,several hundred million farmers, villagers, and rural poor couldbe benefiting from wind energy.

Electricity-generating wind machines cannot be used aswidely as wind pumps, but their potential is nonetheless large.Prdiminary data indicate an abundance of sites for individualwind machines and wind farms throughout the world's north-ern temperate zone, especially in the plains regions of China,North America, northern Europe, and the Soviet Union.Coastlines also offer good wind power potential. Denmark,buffeted by strong winds near the North Sea, already has about500 small wind turbines in pseperhaps the largest concentra-tion in the world.53 In tropical developing countries, windpower generation will probably be most common along Africa'snorthwest coast, South America's west coast, and on windyislands such as those in the Caribbean and Mediterraneanregions where the only source of electricity is expensive dieselgenerators.

Small wind turbinescould be the first technology that allowsa significant number of individuals to generate their ownpower. An extensive survey sponsored by the U.S. Solar Energy

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Wind Power A Turning Point 215

Research Institute in 1980 included a ,detaliked evaluation ofthe many considerations that affect market potentialwindspeed, utility rates, income level, housing density, and the like.The study concluded that 3.8 million homes and hundreds ofthousands of farms in the rural United States are well suitedto the use of small wind generators.54 If this study is right, theUnited States could one day have several million small windturbines in use at homes and farms, providing 8 percent of thenation's current electricity usi..

In the countryside wind can be used for everything fromoperating milking equipment to running household appliances.Accordingly both the residential and agricultural markets areexpected to grow rapidly. The largest market will probably befor relatively small turbines capable of generating perhaps 3 to5 kilowattsenough for one household's needs. Intermediate,lo-to-5o kilowatt, machines will also enjoy sales growth as theyare put to use in more industries, large farms, and towns.Businesses in particularly windy regions could boost their in-come by selling power back to the utility.

These sales notwithstanding, the power generated at windfarms may double that produced by individual machines. AsCalifornia has proven, the wind farm concept is technicallyfeasible and economically appealing. Extensive searches forwind farm sites have begun elsewhere in the United States, andpreliminary surveys have been conducted in some WesternEuropean countries and the Soviet Union. Many regions withmajor wind farm potential have been identified, and manymore will undoubtedly be found as wind prospecting takeshold. .

For coastal nations, one possibility may be placing windfarms offshore. According to an extensive feasibility study car- m

ried out in Great Britain by Taylor Woodrow, an engineeringfirm, platforms similar to those used for oil drilling could bebuilt in the North Sea and a submarine cable could conductpower to a central relay station onshore. Even with all the extra

1 229

216 Renewable Eneiiy

coits entailed M working at sea, the study concluded, offshorewind farms may soon be economically competitive with Britishnuclear reactors:55

Together, wind farms and independent wind machinesshould one day provide 20 tO 30 percent of the electricity manycountries need. Even where winds are not high and the overallelectricity supply systems are not very compatible with windpower, it can_make some contribution. Overall, it seems reason-able to expect that if electricity generation worldswide increasesanother 50 percent the wind can one day provide 12 percentof total generating capacitythat is 350 gigawattsor slightlyless than io percent of actual power generationthat is90o,00o gigawatt hours. In other words, wind power should beable to provide io exajoules of primary energy, or about halfas much as hydropower does today. This would require millionsof wind machines and perhaps half of i percent of the world'sland.56

Surrounded by uncertainties, the pace of wind power devel-opment is difficult to predict firmly., One "if" is the windturbine industry: Wind machines must become more reliableand be mass produced if they are to be used widely. Public andprivate investments over the next five to ten years may well laythe groundivOrk for rapid expansion by the late eighties accord-ing to industry observers. Also critical now are programs tocarry out wind assessments, modify utility policies, and ensurethe environmental acce tability of wind power. Under .favor-able but less than id conditions, Wind power could providea few thousand megiwa enerating capacity by 19sto andas much as 20,000 megawatts the century's end.

Once the initial market breakthrough is made, the wiiidpower field could unfold rapidly. Among other things, M-creased investments and the pioneering work being carried outin Denmark, California, and other areas are erasing some of thecredibility problems that originally plagued wind energy. Someengineers and technocrats who earlier steered clear of "uncon-

J- '230

Wind Power; A Turning Point 217

ventional" technologies are new enthused about wind power,as are an increasing number of rural development planners,utility executives:and consumers. If recent technical achieve-ments are backed up by effectii,e. industry and governmentpolicies, wind power could reach the all-important turningpoint.

;

2 31

10

Geothermal EnergyThe Powering Inferno

1,A"7""

One major renewable soUrce of energy does not come am.'sunlight. Geothermal energy comes directly from the eafth'svast subsurface storehouse of heat. Like the sun's energy; thatheat is the protQt of gravitational collisions, atomic reactions,and radioactive decay. Just as the sun will eventually cool, so,too, will the earth. But meanwhilefor millenniait can sup-ply immense amounts of energy.'

By no stretch of the imagination is geothermal heat todayoil's equal, or even wood's. The twenty countries that tise"geothermal energy for purposes besides bathing cull approxi-mately 0.5 exajoules of energy each year, 6o percent of it in theform of direct heat and the rest as electricity. Although not yet

g 32

Geothermal Energy: The Powering Inferno 219

a major component of the global energy budget, this is enoughdirect heat td meet the needs of over ,2 million houses in a coldclimate and sufficient electricity for 1.5 million houses.2

'Geothermal energy use is rising rapidly. Where resources areabundant and accessible, geothermal power is already an en-ergy bargain, usually less expensive than electricity generatedby coal and nuclear power plants. If technological advancesproceed apace, the few countries that have already committedthemselves to geothermal development will be joined by doz-ens more:

Subterranean Fires

All geothermal heat comes from magmathe molten roa thatunderlies the earth's roughly 40-kilometer-thick crust. Whiletemperatures typically increase only 25°C with each kilometerof depth, temperatures as high as 36ec are in some areasfound close enough to the surface-2 kilometersto bereached with current drilling technology. These anomalous"hot spots" are also home for volcanoes, gOsers, and hotsprings.3

Most geothermal activity occurs where two plates of, theearth's crust meet, allowing the cauldron of fire to teach closeto the surface. As a result, the world's geothermal riches in"-elude the area where the mid-Atlantic ridge bisects Iceland,areas around the Mediterranean, the Rift Valley in East Africa,

'and the,"Ring of Fire" that extends around. the Pacific Basin.Yet even outside these areas, which comprise about io percentof the world's land mass, are abundant lower-temperature geo-thermal deposits.4

The world'sgeothermal resources fall into four broad classes,each of which has unique problems and possibilities. Hydro-thermal reservoirs are found 'wheie permeable, water-bearingrock sits atop very hot, impermeable rock. There, water touch-ing the heat source rises to the surface, Cools slightly, and flows

2 3-3


outward and down to be heated again. Over time this waterreaches an equilibrium temperature, ranging from only slightlyabove that of groundwater to far above boiling. Lower-temper-ature hydrgthermal reservoirs are widespread, whereas re-sources wiih water (or steam) over, 15ec are limited to a fewregions. A few hydrothermal deposits have sufficient tempera-ture and pressure to yield dry steam, the most valued geother-Mal resource.5

While hydrothermal reservoirs are the primary source ofgeothermal efiergy today, the three other tyks of geothermalenergy also have long-run potential. "Geopressured" reservoirsare formed when plarit matter trapped in sedimentary basins,decomposei and produces methanethe main component ofnatural gas. As the overlying sediments exert increasing force,the pretsure .and heat build. Such reservoirs are nOt as wide-sprAtid as conventional hydrothermal reservoir& but in the U.S.CZ Coast and a few other areas they are abundant.6

Hot dry rock and magma are the ultimate geothermal re-sources, but using either poses difficult problems. Utilizing thehot dry rock found throughout the world will require develop-ing a novel heat-extraction technology since there is no natu-rally circulating water present. As for magma itself, tapping itsheat will probably be confined to volcanoes and other geophysi-cal anomalies that bring magma close to the surface. Technolo-gies for using the hellish temperatures found at such sites haveyet to be developed.

One spur to developing geothermal energy is ihe extent ofthe resource. The earth contains substantially more energywithin it than humanity has used so far. Yet exactly how muchenergy, can be tapped and where remain largely unansweredquestions. Only modest geothermal resource surveys have beencarried out until now. What these crude estimates .cio makeclear is that geothermal energy is much more abundant thanwas once believed and is sufficient to allow a vast expansion inits use.7

,

234


The-Earth's Energy in Harness

Making use of the earth's heat is not a new idea. For millenniapeople have flocked to hot springs. Two thousand years agoboth the Romins and the Japanese were relaxing in elaborategeothermal hot bathsr By the ninth century Icelanders wereusing geothermal heat for cooking. In the Middle Ages severalthwns scattered around Europe distributed naturally hot waterto heat houses.8 .

While geothermal technology has ac---11ced far in recentdecades, the simplest uses remain among the most popular.Japan's 1,5oo.hot spr, s resorts are visited by ioo millionpeople each year, mple, and require no drilling, littlepiping, and a minima ent. Yet it would take five large

iconventonal power plan heat these baths were nature lessobliging. In parts of Mexico people wash clothes with naturallyhot water. Some' Thais and Guatemalans use it to boil vegeta-bles and tea.9

In the Philippines and Kenya some crops are dried withlow-temperature geothermal heat. In Idaho an aquaculturefacility that usesseothermal wat r has iound that the fish grow25 percent, faster and seldom suc umb to disease. The largestagricultural application is greenho eatini. Hungary alreadyhas 70 hectares of geotherrnal greenhouses in use, while Italyis saving $600,000 of fuel oil a year by using several suchgreenhouses.10

In scattered applications geothermal heat has also found aplace in industry. In northern Iceland a mineral-processingplant uses geothermal energy to remove the moisture fromsiliceous earth. In New Zealand the Tasman Pulp and PaperCompany relocated its.mills during the 1950s to be near geo-thermal energy sources. Saving 30 percent on energy, the com-pany pockets an extra $1.3 million annually now. At Brady'sHot Springs, Nevada, an onion-dehydration plant using geo-thermal energy is saving $300,00o per year, though to motivate

235

722 Renewable Enagy

the company's managers to expand the original plant and con-struct an additional one.11 :

Heating homes is the widest application of geothermal en-trgy today. Since the turn of the century, the residents of'Klamath Falls, Oregon, have drilled More than 400 wells to tapthe 40' to 1 i ec water beneath their houses for space- anddomestic waterheating. Hovusehold wells there have heat ex-changers -that transfer heat frorn the briny subterranean reser-voir to the pure water circulating to the house. Usinra heatexchanger conserves the resource, minimizes corrosion, andskirti the problem of waste-water disposal. These systems costfrom $5,000 to $1o,000, and the.one-time investment can inmany cases be shared among several households so that thelife-cycle costs compare fav'orahly with conventional heatingoptions.12

Further boosting the economies of shared systems, manycommunities have turned togeothermal district heating. Themost impressive example is Iceland, whose immense geother,mal resources provide 75 percent of the population with heat.In Reykjavik, the capital, nearly all of the city's 112,000 peopleuse heat from two geothermal fields under the city and fromanother 15 kilometers away. Visitors to this frigid.city in the1930s recall the pall of coal and wood smoke that engulfed itin winter. Today the air is clear, and home heating costs 75percent less than it would using fuel oil.13

Where human settlements sit astride geotheimal resources,low-temperature, district heating is an unbeatable bargain.14Careful planning and major investments by a local governmentor special heating district re needed, but large fuel savingsjustify both. A few such systems are already in plate ireFrance,Hungary, the Soviet Union, and the United States, as well asin Iceland.

To boost the efficiency and, thus, the economics"of geother-mal heating, some systems feature heat pumps. These'electricaldevices send a refrigerant, usually freon, through a series of


chambers in which heat is extracted from one medium (suchas naturally hot water) and transferred to another (such as air).If a heat pump is used, geothermal water at relatively lowtemperatures and even ordinary groundwater can be employedfor heating. Some 50,000 groundwater heat pumps are in usein the United States, and the National Water Well Associationpredicts that rural use will expand rapidly. This is bound tohappen, especially if groundwater heat pumps can be adaptedto provide cooling in the summeran intriguing idea stillbeing tested." ,

Even more popular than the direct-use of geothermal heattoday is its use in electricity generation. Small wonder. Movinghot water is expensive because insulated pipelines are expen-siv.e. Indeed, a 60-kilometer pipeline,in Iceland is the world'slongest. If converted to electricity, however, the energy inmore distant geothermal sources can be put to use in cities andfactories. Today approximately one hundred geothermal powerplants of from o.5 to 120 megawatts of capacity are operatingin fourteen countries. (See Table 10. 1.) Including a few com-mercial plants and many experimental ones, the total genera-ting capacity is approximately 2,5,00 megawatts and rising ra-pidly.16 . .

The simplest technology for generating electricity is the drysteam system used at steam-only reservoirs. Only four suchsystems are, in opbration, two commercial complexes in Italyand tlie United Statel and two smaller systems in Lndonesiaand Japan. Electricity generation at these rare but prime sitesis mainly a matter of piping the steam to a standard turbine.The lirgest complex is one at the Geysers in northern Califor-nia that as of 1982 used 40,0 wells and 17 separate power plantsto provide 100o megawatts of generating capacity for the Pa-cific Gas & Electric Company and other 'utilities-. These plantsare among the, most reliable and least expensive sources ofelectricity in the state.17

More common are geothermal reservoirs that contain both

I

23 7


Table lo. 1. Worldwide Geothermal Capacity in 2981 and Plans forthe Year 2000

Country / 981 2000

United States.PhilippinesItalyNew ZealandMC:620

932446

440203180

(megawatts)

5;82124,54.

800, 382 +

4000Japan 168

:8:°°495865

El Salvador 95Iceland 41

8:059520:

Kenya 15

Soviet Union 1 1

Azores 3 .3Indonesia 2

China 2

TurkeyCosta Rica

0.5o

931

Nicaragua oEthiopia o

.Chile oFrance o

Total 2,538.5++++++++

73.,,65363

Source DiPippo, "Geothermal Power Plants: Worldwide Survey," and United Na-tions Conference on New and Renewable Sources of Energy, "Report of the TechnicalPanel on Geothermal Energy."

steam a. nd water. Plants that tap this less ideal form of geother-mal energy are found in at least ten countries, though manysuch projects are still experimental. Ope of the most successfulfacilities is the one in Wairakei, New Zealand. In nearly con-tinuous operation since the mid-sixties, this reliable igo-megawatt plant has nonetheless run into problems. Electricitygeneration at the site declined during its early years, apparentlybecaUse water was being 'extracted faster than 'it was beingreplaced. Generation has stabilized in the last decade, how-ever.18

IF

238

Ge4henna1 Energy: The Powering Inferno 225

Wherever high-temperature geothermal water or steam isavailable, electricity generation looks to be an attractive propo-sition. Such areas are rarer than those suited for direct use, butelectricity's versatility Makes their rapid development a nearcertainty.

.61

Technological Frontiers

The cost of harnessing geothermal energy would drop precipi-tously if three technicalthallenges were met. One is improvingthe means of locating and drilling for geothermal resources.Another is finding ways to use more abundant, lower-tempera-ture resources for electricity generation. The last is overcomingthe corrosion and`pollutiOn problems associated with the useof mineral-laden geothermal water.

The presence of hot springs and the like made finding mostof the geothermil reservoirs now in use easy. Yet though manyidentified reseivoirs have not yet been developed, attention hasalready -turned to means of finding now hidden geothermalresources. Undoubtedly, some industries and urban areas sitatop geothermal resources that contain cheap energy they des-perately need. But which cities and which industries? Mostexploration and drilling relies on techniques similar to thoseused in natural gas development, and so petroleum companiesare heavily involved ih many geothermal projects. Their geolo-gists have developed sophisticated remote-sensing techniquesthat are being adapted to geothermal energy prospecting.Chance still enters in, but such techniques 'ciin pinpoint themost promising drilling sites and reduce the number of "dry"well d4ed.

At plisent, drilling wells accounts for more than half thecost of some geothermal projects. A deep geothermal well cancost several hundred thousand dollars, twice the cost of theaverage oil well. When petroleum drilling techniques areadapted to the unique conditions orgeothermal reservoirs,

.239

226 Renewable Energf

o0Sts should fall, though by how much is hard to predict.Fred Hart lei', president of the Union Oil Company of Cali-fornia, optimistically contends that the cost of geothermalwellg can be halved.° Also needed are simple and accuratemeans of estimating short- and long-term production from geo-thermal wells so that planners and investors can make sounddecisions.

Then, toO, the pace of geothermal development will pick upwhen generating plants can make use of the more abundantgeotheunal resources that contain both steam and water. Theconventional "separated steam" design employed in several ,

countries uses the naturally available steam alone to run theturbines. In .more efficient "double flash" plants in use inIceland, japan, the Philippines, and New Zealand, hot waterbrought to the surface is directed to a vessel where the pressureis reduced 'and additional Steam is generated. These plants havemet with some Minor corrosion problems, but for steam andwater over 200'C, double flash plants are likely soon to he themost widely used technology.20

. .

A recent geothermal innovation that allows efficient electric-ity generation using lower-temperature water between 15o'C.and' zooC is the binary cycle plant. At these mainly experi-mental facilities, geothermal water is circulqted in a closed loop .

and run through heat exchangeillhat transfer the geothermalheat to a secondary working fluid with a low bdiling- point.Sinée the moderately heatedworking -fluid vaporizes and runskturbine, relatively low-temperature geothermal water can beused. Testing in piloti4ants in ,China, japan, and the United...States indicates that more reseaich Ind operating expeyienceis needed, but also that for the long run the binary plant.appears to be a most promising design.21 . , .

Another way to use. geothermal heat effibiefitlyls to employ .

the-same resource for both electricity generation and _directthermal usesin effect geothermal' pogenerition. Wateidis-

...

24 0


charged from geothermal generating plants can be hot enoughto use for residential heating or industrial processes. In twoJapanese plants discharged geothermal water is distributed tohouseholds for space heating, cooking, and bathing.22

Impurities are a common problem at many geothermal en-ergy projects. Picked up from subterranean rock by the hotcirculating water, such nuisance materials as salts and silicatesgive rise to scaling and corrosion. While the geothermal waterat Reykjavik is pure enough to drink, mineral concentrationshave forced other plants to close. Moreover, the materials thatcorrode or scale the inside of a geothermal system often be-come pollution outside it. Hydrogen sulfide, a noxious gas thatsmells like rotten eggs, is the worst culprit. Found at almost allgeothermal sites, occasionally it is concentrated enough tocause lung paralysis, nausea, and other health problems. AtLarderello, Italy, emissions of hydrogen sulfide that are seventytimes the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's suggesedstandard have been detected. Pollution-control devices devel-oped for use on coal gas .can remove approximately go percentof the hydrogen sulfide, but so jar only the Geysers plant inCalifornia and a few others use them. At less than io percentof the systems' cost, expense is no excuse for this lapse, geother-mal plants need not become major polluters.23

Mercury, arsenic, and other potentially dangerous sub-Stances are found dissolved in ,geothermal water. Unfortu-nately, many plants simply discharge the toxic water they useinto nearby streams and lakes. The river into which the Waira-kei plant in New Zealand discharges its water has arsenicconcentrations two to five times as high as those permitted inU.S. drinking water.24 These problems could trow severe if noaCtion is taken, but fortunately most of the dissolved,sub-stances can be kept out of water supplies by chemical removalor by reinjecting the geothermal water back into its subterra-nean reservoir.

. .

2 4 .1.i.

Li 4

228 . Renewable Enagy

Reinjection could also lessen other problems. One is subsi-dence. In some areas where large amounts of geothermal water/are withdrawn from the earth, the land has started to sink. AtWairakei the ground level drops 20 to 6o centimeters Per year.Like other subterranean processes, this one is pOorly under-stood. Even so it can probably be forestalled by reinjecting thegeothermal water to maintain the underground pressure bal-ance. Reinjection is already used at many projects, but tech-niques need to be made more effective and affordable Onedanger is that reinjected geothermal water could contiginategroundwater, a hazard that must be avoided.25

Another approach to avoiding subsidence and groundwatercontamination is tO place heat exchangers in the geothermalreservoir so that watei does, not have to be extracted at allin many ways the cleanest, most elegant solution. A U.S. manu-facturer, the Sperry Corporation, is develoPing a heat ex-changer thafit claims will generate electricity 2S efficiently 2Sa binary plant although using geothermal water that is signifi-cantly cooler.26 These systems remain at an early stage ofdevelopment, however, and whether they will live up to expec-tations is uncertain.

Geothermal Horizons

To date only hydrothermal depositsgeothermal reservoirscontaining steam, hot water, or bothhave been exiiloitedcommercially. But alongside the heat in "geopressured". depos-.its of methane-saturated water, hot dry rock, and magma, eventhe substantial amount of energy in hydrothermal reservoirsseems paltry.

In 1975 the U.S. Department of Energy began assessing"geopressured" methane reserves at the site of the largest,known reservoir along the Gulf of Mexico: There wells arebeing drilled to depths of .3 to 6 kilometers to determine

,

242

Geothennal-Energy: Tbe Powethig Inferno, 229

whether the volume, temperature, and methane concentrationare high enough to make the resource commercially exploit-able. Early signs are not encouraging. Reservoir pools appearto be smaller and more expensive to reach than originallyanticipated, so industry is losing interest. Even if the economicpicture were to brighten, "geopressured" deposits entail seriouspollution and subsidence problems that would be hard to re-solve since the high pressure makes reinjection difficult.27

Hot dry rock is 4 much more common geothermal resource.It is widely distributed around the world. If a circulating fluidcan be introduced into fractured rock, naturally occurring hy-drothermal systems can be mimicked. Researchers in bothEngland and New Mexico have demonstrated the feasibility ofextracting usable energy from hot dry rock. (Hydraulic fractur-ing techniques were used at Fenton Hill in New Mexico andexplosives at Cornwall in England.) But making this an eco-nomical source of energy requires considerably more research.Finding suRcient water to use hot dry rock could also be aconsti'aint in many parts of the world.28

The ultimate technological challenge for geothermal engi-neers is to use molten rock directly. Although most of thismagma is inaccessible, volcanoes sometimes bring molten rockwith temperatures over igoec close to the surface. SOeralyears ago the Soviet Union announced a plan to build a.5,000-megawatt power plant using magma at the Avachinski Volcanoon the Kamchatka Peninsula. Construction. has yet to begin,however; and many geothermal experts consider the idea un-workable. The only kiiiiVe of actual use of lava's extraordi-nary heat is in Iceland. On the island of Heimaey, a yolcaniceruption that occurred in 1973 and forted the evacuation ofa town of 5,000 people has provided a lava pool that thereturning townspeople have tapped for district heat. In gen-eral, however, materials and equipment must be improvedliefore it makes sense to use volcanic heat directly.29

.24 3


Hot-Water Institutions

,Like all renewable energy sources, geothermal energy cannotflourish until various institutions make accommodation. But inthe case of geothermal developmedr some institutional exper-tise can be borrowed from the petroleum and utility industries.In particular, geothermal resource suiyeys similar to oil and gassurveys can be borrowed, As with petroleum, government's rolehere is to condnct the broad preliminary assessments that indi-cate whether and where the private sector should carry outmore detailed surveys. Most countries with major geothermaldevelopment programs, including the Philippines and theUnited States, have begun such surveys, though few are asextensive -Is they might be."

The legal status of geothermal resources also remains uncer-tain and potentially bothersome. In many countries the govern-ment owns all mineral resources, including geothermal depos-its, found beneath the earth's surface, so it must participate intheir development. In the United States, on the other hand,the law varies by 'State, and many landowners are unsure oftheir geotherrnal energy development rights. In most marketeconomies it makes sense to follow the petroleum model, giv-ing the private sector primary responsibility for developinggeothermal energy, but standardizing leasing procedures, andcharging the industry myalty fees if the state owns the re-

-'source.31As geothermal resource policies are developed, environmen-

tal considerations must be woven into them. A major geother-mal development can turn an area, of tens of square kilometersinto a giant construction site covered with piping; wells,, andpower stations. Some of the most valuable areas for geothermaldevelopment are even more highly valued for iheir aestheficqualities. Some hot springs and geysers are held to be nationaltreasures and are found in national parks entirely off limits todevelopers.

:2 4

Geothermal'Energy: The Powering Inferno 231

For privately owned geothermal resources, too, it is wise todeVelop geothermal energy carefully and to assess the potentialenvironmental consequences. In the United States, for exam-ple, some fear that geothermal development just outside Yel-lowstone Park could irreparably damage the spectacular geyserswithin the park. And the Japan Hot Springs Association hasformally opposed the government's geothermal plans on thegrounds that they could damage Japan's many hot springsresorts. To minimize the environmental impact of geothermaldevelopment, governments can limit plant size, regulate pollu-tion levels, and ensure that adjoining uses for the land arecompatible with geothermal development. Although such in-dustrial and zoning requirements may at first seem constrict-ing, they ultimately work to the benefit.of geothermal develop-ers Given a firm set of guidelines at the outset, they can avoidmost legal uncertainties and disputes thereafter.32

Even where access to an economical geothermal resource isundisputed, financial considerations can stall development. Inthe early stages of a project, risk is high since expensive explor-atory wells must be drilled with no guarantee of success, andfew utilities, local governments, or small companies can affordsuch high risks. It is no surprise, then, that national govern-ments, oil companies, and venture capital firms are financingmost geothermal exploration. In the Philippines, for instance,a subsidiary of the Union Oil Company of California has

_signed'a contract with'the Philippines government and is theprincipal geothermal developer. In developing countries finan-cial constraints are particularly acute, but such internationalfinancial institutions as the World Bank and the regional devel-opment banks have begun to support geothermal projectsthere.3 3

An approach to risk sharing taken in France, Iceland, andthe United* States is for the government to reimburse someproportion of the cost of exploratory wells. In Iceland an En-ergy Futid provides loans to cover 6o percent of exploration

245

.f

232 Renewable Energy ,

and drilling costs. If the well is successful, the loan is repaid atnormal bank rates using the proceeds from the project. If it isdry, the loambecomes a casItgrant and the project is dropped.These incentives have been successful, but they must be care-Plly designed and their use monitored so that they do notencourage frivolous projects with little chance of success. Ide-ally, the private developer should venture some capital andassume a reasonable risk, while government should receiveroyalty payments for successful projects.34 ,

Beyond the initial exploration, even establishing commercialfacilities at identified geothermal sites involves financial uncer-tainties since some of the technologies are so new. Few lenderscan supply large blocks of capital at reasonable interest rates forexperimental technologies, so some form of government incen-tive will in most cases be needed initially. In the United Statesthe government grants a geothermal tax credit of 15 percentthat can be added to a staudard investment credit of io percentand a depletion allowance similar to that permitted for petro-leum development. So far these incentives have stirred up onlyslight interest. To cultivate more, government could make taxbreaks more generous, though direct subsidiei may be a moreeffective and equitable alternative.35 .

Municipal governments have a vital role to play, in someforms of geothermal development. Most district heating sys-tems are owned and operated by municipal governments andregulated as public utilities, so they have 'guaranteed Marketsand access to capital at relatively low interest rates. The citygovernment of ,Reykjavik has developed a successhil 'geother-mal heating system, providing a Model that other geothermallyrich cities may want to copy.36 .

For electricity generation using geothermal energy, electricutilities are ob ous y e key institution in most countries.With their a ss to lo -interest capital, utilities can managesuch large inves ents wi ye ease. Moreover, geother-mal plants shou 4 have special appeal since they are extremely

24 6


reliable, operating at a higher proportion of rated capacity thaneither coal or nuclear power plants. At the Geysers in Califor-nia, the Pacific Gas .& Electric Company has financed andowns most of the power plants built so far, though utilitieswithout such plum sites to exploit have naturally been slowerto get involved. While reluctance to take on projects perceivedas too,risky for customergand stockholders is forgivable, para-noia about new technologies that could widen the options forelectricity generation and lack of imagination are not. Utilitymanagers are beginning to wake up to the benefits of geother:mal energy, but in many regions pressure from governmentsand citizens groups seems to be the necessary nudge:37

The Geothermal Prospect

Expanding more tfian io percent per year since the mid-seven-ties, geothermal energy use appears likely to increase/Ave-. totenfold by the end of the century." Direct heat and electricitygeneration from geothermal sources 'are likely to share in thisgrowth, though the industrial countries will place more empha-sis on direct heat and the Third World more on electricitygeneration. Naturally, early development efforts will stay con-centrated in those countries with abundant and easily accessi-ble resources. Gradually, however, the use of geothermal en-ergy Will expand, particularly as technologies for using lessaccessible or lower-grade sources are developed. 1

Estimates of how quickly the direct use of geothermal heatwill grow vary widely. Now less than o30.exajokie.s per year(enough to heat 2 million typical buildings in a northern cli-,mate), geothermal heal.use could by the turn of the centuryamount to between i and 3 exajoules, depending on how manycountries shape and act on firm plans. Iceland expects 82

-.percent of the country's homes to be- using geotterrnal heatwithin-three to five years. France, which has low-temperaturegeothermal resources underlying hvo-thirds of its land area,

at,

24

v


aims to have a half-million geothermally heated homes by twoand to supply one-tenth of the country's low-temperature heatusing geothermal energy by the year 2000.'9

Canada, China, Japan, the Soviet Union, and the UnitedStates could also exesand the direct use of. geothermal heatdramaticallY. China's national exploratay program has paidoff: GeOthermal resources that a few years Ego seemed negligi-ble today appear abundant indeed. Approximately 2,300 hotspots have been identified, and geothermal experts believeChina alone may harness more than 0.1 exajoules per year in ,

direct geothermal heat by logo. In the Soviet Union, much ofwhich 'is underlain by low-temperature geothermal deposits,several district heating projects are underway. In the United,States no big direct-use projects are yet on the drawing board,and government support .is anything but solid. Nevertheless,U.S. geothermal heat use in the year 2000 could range frorna 1 to 1 exajoulesenough to meet 1 to to percent of U.S.residential, space heating needs.40 . .,...

Geothermal electricity development has alsO been eruptingin recent years. National plans for the year 2000 add up to over17,000 megawatts, nearly seven times t current level. One-third of this total or 5,80o megawatts will in e UnitedStates. Surprisingly, though, many of the new plants will bebuilt .outside of the four industrial nations that have thus farpioneered in' geothermal electricityItaly, Japan, New Zea-land, and the 'United States. El Salvador in some years alreadygenerates one- ird of its power supply using geothermal en-,ergy, and /Vie co plans to build 600 megawatts of geothermalcapacity by tfe mid-eighties. Other developing countries withnoteworthy geothermal programs include Chile, Costa Rica,Indonesia, and Turkey.41

Second only to the United States' geothermal power effortsare the Philippines'. Although the country has less than 500megawatts of geothermal generating capacity today, it plans tohave over 1,200 megawatts by 1989. Eyenttially,, geothermal

i''1

248

4.


energy will rival hydropower as the countri's largest electricitysource. Earmarking $347 million for this program over the nextseveral years, Me Philippines is launching major explorationefforts and technology-development programs. Short on fossilfuels and eager to build industries and "electrify" villages, thegovernment will also construct an undersea transmission cablelo transport geothermal electricity baa neighboring island. Fewother developing countries are investing comparable amountsof time or talent in sophisticated new energy tehno1ogies.42

By any sound reckoning, geothermal energy use-will be sub-stantial in the year 2000. But it will figure much more promi-nently in some national and regional energy economies than inothers. Such countries as Iceland and the Phiiippine& will drawheavily on their rich geothermal endowrnent, but overall; geo-thermal sources will furnish no more than i to 2 percent of thetotal world energy supply until the technology for tappingthem improves and some industries relocate to geothermallyrich regions. Still, such constraints do not mean that geother-mal power cannot gradually become another strong link in adiierse global energy system.

c-

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Working TogetberRenewable Energy's

Potential

olar watei heaters are found atop .more. than 5 million., houses that relied on fossil fuels a 4jecade ago. Wind machinesthat in 1973 meiely snmmoned up memories of a bygone eraare raPidly becomifig a standard powecsotirce for utilities.Community forestry projects, um:lb-way in no more than asmattering of nations in the early seventies, ae now found inmore than fife,/ nations. This, is certain progressthe vanguardof ihe renewable energy development effort. .

"But what about the future? an' trie various renewable,..sources of energy together provide sufficient eriergy for modem

societies? And if so, how long will it take and what will thetransitional period be, like?

25 0

Working Together Renewable Energy's Potential 237

Such questions can be addressed only by stepping back fromassessments of the individual renewable energy technologies,and taking a wider view of renewable energy's prospects. Thesimple technical Or economic potential-Of an energy source .

means little unles.s. coppled With an understanding of the needsthe resource.is.to meet. Hmisehold cooking, aluminum smelt-ing, and automobile manufacturing, for example, each use

_energy in a different, uniquely evolving way. The maiu Ties-lion it how in each of the major end uses renewable energysonrces can interact with conventionathels, otherrenewablesources, and with efficiency improvements to 'provide economi-cal and safe energy.

The broad picture that emerges here is one of diversity.Tomorrow's various needs, resource availabilities, and evolvingtechnologies will .combine in different ways in different coun-tries so that no two national energy systems will be exactlyalike. t ven -within nations, energy systems will rely on six oreight major sources rather than on three or four, as most dotoday. Renewable energy's future has the potential to be muchmore than the sum of its parts. By working together in innova

.'tive and 'productive ways, renewable energy tecknologies can'form a strong base to supcirt societies... ,

'Rebuilding. .

TOday roughly one-quarter of global energy use goes to heat,cool, and light buildings, and another 5 percent is used in waterheaters and other appliances. Two-thirds of this total comesdirectly or indirectly from oil and natural gas, premium fuelsthat conld be.put to better use in automobiles, petrochemicalproduction, and .industries:1_ The ilimediacy of the problems, :has begotten many solutions and already energy. conservationand renewable technologies are influencing the shapei of theworld's buildings. Substantial optimisM is warranted sincemany of the least complicated, most economical renewable

2 5 1 .

238 Renewable-Energy

energy technologies will play their largest iole in buildings.Increased efficiency is the first step in reducing energy bills

in buildings virtually everywhere. In small residential buildingssuch measures as adding insulation and employing improvedfurnaces and air conditioners can reduce energy needs by 25ta 50 percent at a minimal cost. In larger apartment andcommercial buiklings, combining such simple conservationmeasures with computer-controlled energy-management sys-tems can result in similar improvements. Even more encourag-ing, architects and engineers now know how to build newbuildings that use 75 to oo percent less fuel than conventionalbuildings do. Statistics for the industrial,countries show reduc-tions in energy use in existing buildings averaging io percentor more in the last decide alone.2

As the energy needs of buildings declide, supplying theremaihing needs with renewable resource's becomes, easier.Fewer solar collectors or wind machines are 'needed to supplysufficient heat or electricity to an _efficient building, for in-stance, and many renewable energy technologies that wouldnot be ecanomically viable in a conventional house are so in a"low energy" one. _Still, cost remains paramount in determin-ing renewable energy use in buildings. Large capital outlays arebeyond the pale for Most building owners even if the newtechnology will pay for itself in fuel savings in a few years. Easeof maintenance is also criticaesince few people want to spend'Mich time fiddling with a faulty energy device.

By all of these criteria, passive solar design shines brightly.Energy efficiency and solar design complement and reinforceeach other, and once conservation has reduced heating needsto a certain point, passive solar design becomes even morecost-effective than further conservation measures. Climate-sen-sitive buildings are both inexpensive and uncomplicated, fac-tors that have already found them a following in the middle-income housing market in some countries. The simplepracticality of climate-sensitive design virtually guarantees that

252

Working Together: Renewable Energy's Potential 239

one day it will be employed in varying forms throughout *theworld. Based on cufrent trends there could be as many as loomillion such buildings by the year z000.3

Climate sensitive designs will be coupled with other renew-able energy technologies. Solar collectors, the original vanguardrenewable energy technology, are, for instance, the most eco-nomical means of heating water in many regions. Since theycan easily be added to existing houses, solar collectors have thepotential to catch on rapidly, as is seen in Japan where upercenrof homes are already using the devices. By the end ofthe century, solar collectors should be a thoroughly conven-tional household appliance, with 50 to loo million gracing theworld's roofs.

BUildings can also become their own power stations, al-though the eventual popularity of such systems is difficult tocalculate. Photovoltaic panels mounted on rooftops and smallwind turbines in the backyard have the potential soon to beeconomical means of electricity generation under the rightconditions. Wind turbines will likely be restricted mainly torural areas, but rooft6p solar cells could become a commonsuburban and even central city technology. Such systems havethe potential to give individuals a measure of energy indepen-,,dence that is unheard of in the modern world, transforming`consumers" into "pr6ducers."

Other renewable energy sources have an imporkint but lim-ited role to play in buildings. Contrary to forecasts made in themid-seventies, residential wood use will, grow during the nexttwo decades, especially in such forest-rich regions as NorthAmerica, Scandinavia, azid the Soviet Union. Fuelwood, reli-an"ce is inconvenient and eZpensive in many cities and suburbs,however, and residential use tliere will be limited by a lack ofready access to wood supplies and by increasing cOmpetitionfrom industrial users. In the aggregate, household reliance onfuelwood in industrial countries will probably double and couldtriple by the end of the century, supplying 10 to 20 percent of

'2'5 3

Renewable Energy

residential energy in most nations..In cities with cold climates district heating using municipal

solid wa4e, wood, geothermal energy, or solar ponds will be animportant supplementary source of heat. Already many Euro-pean cities Make use of district heating, solving waste disposalproblems at the same time. District heating is efficient andinexpensive, and it can make use of first one conventional orrenewable fuel and then another as the relative prices of energysources shift. While other renewable energy technOlogies en-courage individual building owners to work independently, thisone will push them to cooperate.

Local adaptation is obviously essential to successful use ofrenewable energy in buildings. In relatively mild climates aclimate-sensitive design combined With solar collectors for hotwater could provide most of the energy needed. In a largenorthern city a superinsulated townhouse or apartment build-ing could ieature rooftop solar collectori and derive most of itsspace heat from a garbage-fired central heating plant. In ahumid, tropical region a climate-sensitive design might be as-sisted by a solar pOWered air conditioner.

Virtually all regions have the potential to power their build-., ings with renewable energy. It will be up to local communitiesand individuals to overcome the institutional and financialbarriers that are the largest impediments to a 'transformationof the world's buildings. Davis, California, is a ziodel. Itscomprehensive building code, innovative developers, and en-thusiastic citizens have encouraged a solar energy and conserva-tion revolution and have begun to wean the town of fossilfuels' .4 Dozens of other cities are in the process of writing theirown versions of the Davis success story, and today this is oneof the most exciting frontiers in renewable energy.

254


A Fresh Start for Indust)y

The world's industries currently account for approximatelyone-third of global energy use, though the percentage varieswidely by country. Industry's energy requirements are highestin nations that produce aluminurri, cement, chemicals, or steel;They are lowest where agriculture or light industry dominatesthe economy. Here the line between developed and developingcountries break& down. japan, the Soviet Union, Brazil, India,and the Philippines all use a large share of their energy inindustry.5

In many countries the productivity of energy has taken itsplace alongside the productivity of labor as a tey measure ofindustrial achievement. In the United States, for example, themore energy-intensive industries together spent 55 percent oftheir research and development fundsor over $5 billiononreducing fuel requirements in 1980. Across japan, Europe, andNorth America industrial energy use has leveled off, evenfallen, while the output of industrial products continues toincrease. In Japan the steel industry has cut energy consump-tion per unit of production by 12 percent.6

All signs point to continuing energy-efficiency improve-ments and a gradual shift of emphasis toward more fundamen-tal changes that require larger investments or more sophis-ticated technologies. As the record-breaking recession of theearly eighties ends, many companies will be introducing.newenergy efficient technologies at a rapid pace.

Just as industry has realized the potential of energy conserva-tion, so too has it begun to evaluate renewable energy's role inincreasing profits. As renewable energy inveitments becomeprofitable, they will Multiply, though on an application byapplication and .use by use basis. The catch is that renewableenergy technologies cost more on average than does conserva-tion and the commensurate risk is higher, so businesses areslower to respond. One impetus for renewable energy invest-

255'

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242 Rencifable Energy

meat is the major changes in plant equipment dictated by the,need to improve efficiency or generally upgrade technologies.Renewable energy equipment can be added at the same timefor a relatiVely modest cost. New cogenerators or conventionalboilers can easily be designed to run on biomass fuels as v/ellas coal or natural gas, giving a plant manager welcome ffexibil-ity.

Today wood is the most rapidly growing renewable energysource in industry, mainly as a substitute forl fuel oil in indus-trial boilers. In fact, the wood products industry is fast ap-proaching energy self-sufficieney, while various other industrieslocated in forested areas are also turning to wood. AlreadyBrazil relies heavily on charcoal for smelting steel and half ofall new industil boilers sold in the United States are wood-,fired. In the fu re gasified wood is likely-to find a place inindustries that lequire g clean, steady energy supplysuch asbrick and textile production. WoOd's industrial future is sobright that in some northern temperate nations and in heavilyforested countries in the developing world wood could overtakecoal as the fastest *owing industrial fuel.

Roughly half of industrial energy use goes to produce directheat, and in the United States more than one-third of this heatis low-temperatureless than 8o*Cand fully 8o percent isat temperatures below 600*C.7 To reach these temperatures,simple solar collector systems are appropriate at the lower endof the spectrum and solar concentrators and solar ponds at theupper end. Geothermal energy could figure importantly here,too. Most industrial solar and geothermal systems are unlikelyto begin making a major contribution fOr at least a decade, butprogress could accelerate rapidly thereafter. Eventually, manyindustries will probably begin to relocate to take advantage ofsolar and geothermal energy.

Industry employs energY in more diverse ways thaW does anyother sector. Besides heat and the electricity needed in electrol-

2 5 6


ysis and mechanical systems, specialized energy requirementsinclude metallurgical coal for the steel inilustry and petroleumfeedstocks' for petrochemical production. Some of these needswill be very difficult to meet with anything but fossil ftiels, butthis should not preclude rapid progress toward meeting larger,more flexible energy needs with renewable sources.

Renewable Energy on the Farm

Renewable energy could give agriculture a new lease on life.Farming has grown increasingly energy-intensive in recentyears, with oil-fueled equipment now performing many tasksonce done by People Or animals. Heavy use of fertilizers, pesti-cides, and irrigation are maladapted legacies of the era of cheapfuel. Although agriculture accounts on average for only 3.5percent of the commercial energy used in industrial countriesand 5 percent in developing countries, nearly all the energy ituses is in the form of highly valued liquid fuels and electricity.8

Several factors bode well for renewable energy's use in agri-culture. Most farms have ample land for solar collectors, windmachines, and other dev,ices. Most farms use energy in formswell-matched to mime of the renewable resources. And manyfarmers are comfortable handling a variety of technologies andadapting new deyices to their needswitness the quick spreadof wind pumps throughout rural Mirth America in the lateoineteenth century.9

Producing biological fuell, including ethanol, methanol, andbiogas, is a logical first step for farmers. Agricultural wastes arewidely available for fuel production, and they could be supple-mented by special energy crops or forest materials, Some farmsmay use a small share of jheir land to 'grow crops such assorghum, Jerusalem artichokes, or sunflower seeds that canprovide fuel for their tractors. Fast-growing trees could beanother popular energy crop_ It may also make sense for farm-

_

2 5 7


ers' cooperatives to build bio-fuel plants: FarMers could con-tribute feedstock wastes and draw out a proportional amountof fuel, selling ,the rest.

Direct use of solar energy is one of the most attractiveoptions on many farms. Low-temperature solar, heat can beused for drying crops and heating faith` buildings. In theUnited States more hogs than people live in solar heated"hornes," and solar milking parlors are popular as well. Solargrain dryers are also being used by North American farmerstoday. Where the crops are not too moisture-laden and thegrain can be dried gradually, these dryers have performed well.Most of these systems are still bunt on the farm, but most likelycommercial systems will be developed soon, particularly if en:couraged by government programs or farmers cooperatives.Meantime, Only innovative farmers who are good with theirhands have solar grain dryers or heaters.w

Traditionally, wind power has been widely used for waterpumping...Today wind pumps suitable foi small farms andlivestock grazing are enjoying a renaissance. Large irrigatedfarms, however, can probably Make better use of pumps pow-ered by photovoltaicssystems that for now remain experi-mental and costly but nevertheless have the best chance ulti-mately of meeting modern irrigation's high energy demands."

Farms may also be in a good position to generate their ownelectricity in the near future. Surveys indicate that there isample wind available for electricity generation in most temper-ate farming regions and ample sunlight for electricity genera-tion on most farms everywhere. As these technologies are per-fected, energy farming and crop farming could increasingly gohand in hand. By the nineties farms could be adding strengthand diversity to utility grids.

In agriculture renewable energy is a good fit. Much of theenergy used on farms is needed in summer and autumn whensunlight is abundant, and the forms of energy needed are insome cases those rpost readdy available. Over the long rim. most

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Workini Together: Renewable Energy's Potential 245

agriculture should become energy self-sufficient. In the in-terim, however, technologies will have to be refined and energy.efficiency improved.

Energy for the Rural Poor

The energy problems of modem industry or agriculture palebeside those of the world's poor. For the roughly 2 billionpeople in developing countries that rely mainly onoitielwoodand agricultural wastel to meet energy needs, choices are con-strained by shortages of traditional fuels and of resources to payfor new ones. The world's poor thus confront energy problemsin immediate human termsas a daily scramble to find fuel tocook the family's meal or heat its honie. As the World Banknoted gloomily in 1981, "'The crisis in traditional energy sup-,plies is a quiet one, but it poses a. clear danger in the lives ofmuch of the population of the developing world."12

The world's rural peasants and villagers use only a tiny sbareof the world's energy, and small additional amounts couldprovide large benefits. Yet many energy programs introducedin developing countries are grim parodies of those in industrialnations. The emphasis is on large power plants and importedfuels that can aid in industrialization, but that do not touch thelives of the poor majority. Many nations have begun to rightthis imbalance in recent years, an overdue development givenfurther impetus by the United Nations Conference on Newand Renewable Sources of Energy held in Nairobi in 1981.Representatives of both industrial and developing countriesemphasized the overriding importance of rural energy solu-tions. Unfortunately, financial commitments here continue tolag behind rhetorical ones.13 .

Shortages and abuses,of fuelwood and other biological en-ergy sources are the crUx of the rural energy problem, andinoconventional or renewable fuel can be substituted quickly andat a reasonable cost for a large share of these traditional fuels.

259


In the next decade or two only wiser management and moreefficient use of biomass fuels can save the day. Establishinglarge forestry programs and introducing efficient wood stovespose, no stupifying teChnical challenges, but the massive effortsneeded will require an unprecedented mobilization of humanand, financial resources.

In that sense bringing renewable fuels into use on a sustain-able basis in the Third World is even more difficult thandeyeloping renewable energy sources from scratch in industrialnations. Eventually, village wood lots and privately owned fuel-wood plantations must be established so that natural forests arenot' plundered out of desperation. The new fuelwood suRpliescan be shared among community members and beconTE thebasis for new village industries. Erik Eckholm, an Americanresearcher who has studied community forestry programs;ob-serves that "the process of creatiVe community action thatsuccessful village forestry requires is the essence of what realdevelopment is all about.:t

Other pressing rural e rgy.needs also require attentioncrop drying, water pumping, mechanical power for agriculture,heating, and refrigeration among them. A steadily increasingstream of research and demonstration projects in the last dec...ade ha.ve been aimed at evaluating the potential for renewahleresources to meet these needs. The results haye been mixed.While a few of the ideas that once 'generated excitement cannow be written off, most of the difficulties encountered indi-cate not that the technologies must be scrapped, but that smallchanges are .needed, particularly in the way they, are intrO-duced. John Ashworth, a U.S. energy expert Who has visitedmany rural development projects, notes that there is a growingawareness that "new technologies must undergo adaptation inorder to be compatible with local cultural practices, loc'al needsfor technology, and the structure of the greater society."5

Among the most promising "new" renewable sources ofenergy for rural areas is biogas. Ideal for cooking and lighting,

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,Working Toget4er: Rerable Energy's Potential 247

as well as for electricity generation, biogas digesters allow, peo-ple to use the energy in biological wastes without sacrificing thevaluable fertilizer they contaip. The key is toevelop inexpen-siNe and easy-to-build community-sized biogas digesters. Thatway all families (some offering onlY their labor) can participate,not just livestock -owners. Of little use in extremely cold or aridregions, biogas digesters could nonetheless be used in a sizableshare of rural communities.

.

An important rural .energy need is for electricity, smallamounts of which greatly improve living standards by provid-ing power for agricultural equipment, refrigeration, and light-ing. The 196os dream of extending central electric grids intothe heart of darkness" appeared to fade in the face of theprohibitive costs of building so many power plants and electriclines. Triclay it is evident that if the rural poor are to' haveelectricity anytime.soon, small decentraked systems will have'to provide much of it.

Now most out-of-the-way places rthat have electricity areservedby dieielygenerators, typically run just a few hours a dayto supply power for agricultural equipment and for a few lights

..in the evening. But diesel generators are expensive andabigger problemunreliable. They require regular maintenanceand an occasional complete overhaul. Since there are so few itrained mechanics in rural villages, broken-down diesel genera-tors are a common sight throughout the Third World today. .

Then, too, fuel supplies are by no means guaranteed in remote .

-villages served by pocked, mud-washed roads.16Many diesel generators in rural use could be 'replaced by

more reliable renewable energy technologies that ould gener-ate electricity for the same cost or less. 1('he sm ler the needsto be served, the more the advantage shifts to renewable energytechnologies since ecorkomies of scale are larger for diesels.Small-scale hydropower and biogas-fueled generators have al-ready proven effective and economical. Wind power can alsoprovide electricity where wind is ample. Over 'the long-run,

2 6.1.

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248 Renewable Energy,

.

easy-to-maintain solar electric systems will probably be themost popular way to generate precious electricity for villageand agricultural use.17

For irrigation, livestock watering, and, domestic water sup-plies, wind pumps and solar pumps are the best bets. While'they are an established technology, mechanical wind pumpsare still being adapted _to developing countries' needs. Still,evidence indicates that in many areas, wind pumps can be bothcheaper and more reliable than diesel pumps, particularly in'small-scale use. Solar pumps are 'less technically mature, buttheir potential in windless areas looks great. 6; -

Other promising renewable energy technologies are still atthe trial-and-eiror stage. The initially cool reception to solarcookers might.cbange if solar ovens with enough storage capac-ity to work in the evening hours were developed. Solar refriger-ation could be a big help in preserving medicine and foodwhere electricity is, not available, though moie work is neededon this technologi. Many other good ideas are on thedrawingboards, awaiting application or 'an engineering twist.- It is a Popular notion today that the rurafpoor should lead

''.. the way to reliance on renewable energy. They do, it is true,already rely heavily on renewable energy, but the difficulties theThird World faces in using renewable energy on a sustainable,economically productive basis are nonetheless substantial. De-veloping countries' renewable resources are curreiitly eroding

. .at a.frightening rate, and they often lack the technical expertiseor financial resources needed to develop or adapt new energytechnologies. However, working toward 'some realistic'goals=moreefficient use of biomass energy and gradual introductionof other renewable energy sourcescould greatly improve theenergy situation in rural arias in the near future while longer-term solutions gre developed. So far only China has taken atruly comprehensive approach to solving rural energy prob-leins. Although cultural differences will prevent other countries

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f Working Together Renewable Energy's Potential 249

from copying'the Chinese model exactly, that-nation's success-ful use of biogas, small-scale hydropower, and community far-estry despite minimum financial resources gives an idea of thepotential.

Transptatjon bilemmas

Providing inexpensive alternative fuels for automobiles, trucks,.and aircraft is the problem within the energy problem. Trans-portation vehicles use 20 tO 40 percent of the oil in mostnations or over 2 billion liters of liquid fuel a day.18 In manydeveloping Countries, dependence on automobiles and trucksis nearly complete sinCe the capital investment needed to buildrail sysfems is prohibitive. Because oil-derived fuels pack a lotof energy and are easrto transport; finding good substitutes willbe difficult.

Conservation and fuel-efficiency have begun to make a dentin the transportation energy problem. In 1980 new cars sold inthe United States (which uses $14 million worth of gasolineeach bbur) were 50-Percent more efficient on-the average thanthey were .in the early seventies.19 Less dramatic shifts areoccurrint elsewhere. These changes in new car fuel'efficiencytranslate only slowly into reduced gasoline consumption sincemany old cars remain on the road. But global gasoline,con-sumption has already declined from its peak in. the late seven-ties, and further reductions can be banIced upon.. In industrialcountries gasoline use per vehicle will probably fall an adc4tion30 to 50 percent by the year 2000, though someof this declinecould be negated by increases in the nuinber of cars on the roadin the developing countries..

Among the alternatives to .gasoline, synthetic fuers derivedfrom coal or oil shle have ieceived the most attention. During

,---the seventies it was frequently predicted that future gasoline.1 price hik would assure synthetic fuels' economic viability.

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263 :

250 Renewable Energyk

But as price rises occurred, "synfuels" continued to remain outof reach. Today cost estimatd.s for synthetic fnels plants arerising faster than gasoline prices, and both industry and govern-ment are abandoning major projects after spending hundredsof millions of dollars on them. No convincing evideuce indi-cates that synfuels will ever be anything but a minor andexpensive replacement for gasoline.20

Electric cars are also being considered as an alternative togasoline-powered vehicles. Since electricity can be derivedfrom many types of energy, r,newable resources included, itseems in some ways tohe a good power source for tomorroW's,,automobile. But batteries developed so far are expensive andinconvenient: They mthl be recharged every hundred milesandseplaced after a few hundred rechargings. Battery researchcontinues ii3 government and private laboratories, but a br-eak-through that would put electric cars on the commercial marketin large numbers before the year 'zoo° is unlikely. The nextgeneration may, however, see eleCtri6 vehicles widely used incoMmercial fleets and later in privately-owned cars. Whetherelectric batteries can ever largely replace gasoline is not yetInown.21

Hydrogen is a more Problematidal transportation fuel. It canbe produced from a range of conventional and renewable en-erty resources that are first' converted to electricity, ans ineff-cient and expensive. process, However, a new technique usingiron oxide holds out the potential of cheaply separating hydro-gen from Water using sunlight directly: Hydrogen is a clean-burning fuel, but because it is a gas at normal temperature andpressure, hydrogen must be cooled and liquified*or chemicallyconverted before it can be stored in a fuel tanka minortechnicl problem but a major expense. In all, hydrogen isunlikely to _hit the road during the next twentryears, but itcoul4 very well becomea popular automotive fuel after the turn

-of the century.22

, 264

'Working Together Renewable Energy's Potential 251

The renewable fuel most acclaimed as an alternative to gaso-line is, of course, ethanola 'form of alcohol obtained fromsugarcane, cereals, and many other crops. But the very fertileagricultural land needed to prOduce these fuel crops is itselfunder increasing pressure, and such alternati%es as cassava andsweet -sorghum cannot measure up economically to sugarcaneor corn. For alcohol to become a major transportation fuel, new,means of producing it must be found.

WoOd alcoholor methanolis the alternative fuel withthe most potential. Methanol can be produced from a widerange of energy resources, including wood, biological wastes.,coal, and natural gas. Already used, extensively as an industrialchemical, methanol can be used in slightly modified internalcombustion engines thakcould be built for absout the same costas gasoline-powered ones. Essential to extensive use of meth-

, anol is finding inexpensixe ways to make it from %arious energycropsa search 'that is already paying off.

One of the most encouraging things about methanol is thatit might serve 'very well as a transitional fuel. The gradual shiftfrom natural gas to coal, wood, and waste products as feedstockcould go almost unnoticed by drivers. Different nations mightproduce methanol from different feedstock materials, andsome could even want to export surplus methanol, making ita common' energy currency.

Frank von Hippel, a senior research physicist at the Prince-ton University Center for Energy and Environmental Studies,observes. that "if you ean economically increase efficiency to,say, 6o miles per gallon, then you can easily absorb the demandwith biomass."23 Indeed, improved fuel efficiency togetherwith greater use of public transportation are essential if we areto maintain mobility while gradually switching to methanOIand perhaps electricity and hydrogen in future years. Cars willundoubtedly be among the last users of oil, however, and it willbe many decades before the transition is complete.

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252 - R,enewable Energy

Sustainable Electricity. .

Like liquid fuels, electricitY is a P,articularly precious form ofenergy. Used extensively in industry and buildings, it hashelped raise liv ing standards the World over. In industrial coun-tries close to a third of natiorial energy use goes for, electricitygeneration. Nearly half Of this comes from coal, a quarter fromoil and gas, and 8 percent from nuclear power. Rer,rewableenergy in the form of hydropower provhdes the remainingfifth.24. .

. .During the postwar- period, government and industry in

most nations vigorously promoted electricity use. The hard sellpaid off, largely because electricity is so versatile and becausetechnological improvements and mOre-efficient power plantspushed price§ down. New plants inWestern Europe and theUnited States averaged 150 megaviatts of capacity in 1950 and409 megawatts in 1978. Growth in electricity use becamepredictable, rising by 5 percent or more each year regardless ofeconomic ups and downs.25

In the seventies the electricity picture began to change dras-tically. Rising capital costs caused in part by the need to limitthe social risks that large power plants pose combined withhigh interest rates io boost electricity costs. Rising oil pricescaused additional increases. As a result, electricity..prices Iceptpace with or outstripped inflation in many nations. In responseconsumers cut back, and slow economic groWth, acted as anadditional brake. The rate of growth in electricity use has fallenfrom 6 percent to z to 3 percent in the United States and bysimilar amounts in Europe. Unexpected conservation, in turn,upset the highlrowth assumptions on whickAtility planninghas been based, and utilities found themselves with expensive'but unneeded coal and nuclear power plants planned, or par-tially built. Many of these plants have been canceled since themid-seventies, and some utilities are adapting to the new eraby investing heavily in load management and conservation.

266

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Many utility planners now recognize that conservation canprovide for consumers' needs at a lower cost than can -newpower plants:26

For_ utilities, the -newer sources of renewable energy are notyet as sure a bet as energy conseration. But "renewables" areclimbing s eadily on utility agendas in many regions. Geother-mal plants, wind turbines, photo-roltaics, and solar ponds arebeginning t compete economically with conventional powerplants now hder construction. Some utilities are using thesenew small-scale technologies to cope with uncertain trends inelectricity use sincp the capital expenditures are modest andthey can add or delete generating units relatively quickly aselectricity use trends vacillate. The world leader in this en-deavor is California, which will get most of its additional gener-.ating capacity in the late eighties and nineties from cogenera-tionrgeothermal pow'er, wind power, and solar power. Coal andnuclear power plants originally planned for that period have allbeen canceled.27

One of the chief concerns surrounding reliance on solarpower, wind power, and hydtopower for electricity generationis the problem of power interruptions caused by hourly, daily,or seasonal weather changes. While it is true that such fluctua-,tions wilLplace limits on the use .of some renewable energysources, much of the problem can be alleviated through carefulplanning. Luckily the problem does not even arise if the renew-

. able energy source contributes only a small proportion of theoverall generating capacity on an electric grid. And ag renew-able energy becomes a .major power.source, the various genpra-ting technologies can be balanced to ensure uninterruptedpower. Often windois available when sunlight isnot !and_ viceversa. By interconnecting dispersed areas with different cli-mates (and renewable energy resources), interruptions will befewer. HydropoWer has unique potential as a balancing agentsince water can be stored and power output increased or de-creased as other energy sources on t/be grid Wax and wane.28

267 .

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In many regions electricity systems may be self-sufficient.But in others long-distance trade in electricity may be neces-sary to.enable regions to sell surplus renewable power and buyit from others as needed. Modern computer-control systemscan regulate the flow of the electricity- and ensure that thelowest-cost power is used at 'any given time. They can alsoautomatically-alter the price of the electricity according to how

. it is produced and when it i used: . .Outside of California ofily a few utilities have wholeheart-,

edly embraced conservation and renewable energy so far, butalready .some impressive plans have beep put together. TheU.S. state of Havaii, -which today gets most of its electricityfrom oil-fired power plants, plans to get between 79 'and 94percent ,of it frOm indigenous renewable resources by 2005.Large numbers of wincf turbines, geothermal plants, and oceantherinal plants are projected tobe in place by then..The Philip-pines has a similarly ambitious program under way, althoughits emphasis is on wood-fired "dendrothermar plants, hydrapower dams, and geothermal plants. In the U.S.Tacific North-

.

west and.in New England several utilities have ambitious pro-grams to develop renewable energy sciurces. Wind poi!erdevelopments are on theplapning tables of several utilities innorthern Europe, including Denmark; the Netherlands, andSweden.29 .

_

. . .

The key to making iiidesPread use ofelectridity generatedfrom renewable resources is making the change gradually sothat technical and institutional impediments can be ironedout. Bypeans of productive conservation, utilities will be ableto buy time to experiment with new ways of generating anddistributing electricity. Renewable energy technologies can bebrought into action as they become economically cOmpetitive,first with oil- and gas-fired plants and .then with new .coal andnuclear power plants.30 By thus reducing costs and risks, utili-ties can begin paving the way for a sustainable electricity sys-tem. In the more distant future enormous diversity -is likely.:

268

. -

Working Together: Renewable Energy's-Potential- 255

Most electricitygrids will be "fed" by combinations Of centralgenerating piojeds (such as Wind or sail. "farms") and decen-tralized plants located at houses and iridustrid. I

Special note slioold .be taken of the electricitY problemsdeveloping countriei face. Since most Third World nationstoday use only small amounts of power, they will have to addsubstantial generating capacity simplrto maintain modest eco-nomic growth." Conservation will help, but it will still benecessary to develop many new power sourcei in the nearfuture. MOst Third World electricity planners cannot afford toawait the outcome of experiments with new technologies For'them, the best tack is to use their unexploited hydropowerresources in the interim. If they lack hydropower and mustexpand coal- and oil-powered plants, cogeneration is the ticket.Meanwhile, Officials in developing.countries must begin eValu-ating their nations' renewable energy resources and consideringthe adaptation of some of the new electricity-generating tech-nologies being pioneered in the industrial world.

Adding Up the Numbers

Technology assessments and end-use analyses alike make itclear that renewable resources' contribution to the global en-ergy budget will grow steadily. If current trends continue andgovernments adopt moderately supportive policies, renewableenergy use is likely to increase by at least 75 percent by the year2000, rising from the 1980 level of 63.5 exajoules to between113 and 135 exajoules. (See Table ii. 032 Renewable energy'sshare of world energy use would thus rise from the current 18percent to around 26 percent.

Such numbers inevital3:ly obscure .as much as they revealsince the type of energy produced is as important as the quan-tity, and the efficiency with which energy is Used varies enor-mously. Today renewable energy actually supplies less usefulenergy than these figures indicate. But in the future overall

2 6

25e lienewal;le Energy

Table 11.-i. World Use of Renewable Energy, 198o, ?000, andPotential

Source

Total

rg8o . 2000 .Cong-ternr potential

(exajoules)

Solar energy- passive design <o.i 3.5-7 20-30 .

Solar energy. residential coll6ctors <0.1 1.7 5-8'Solar energy. industrial collectors <0.1 2.9 10-20Solar energy: solar ponds <0.1 2-4 10-30+

Wood 35 48 ioo+Crop residues 6.5 7Animal dung 2 2

.

Biogas: small digesters 0.1 2-3 4-8.. Biogas: feedlots <0.1 0.2 . 5+

Urban sewage and solkl waste 0.3 1.5 1.5+

Methanol from wood <0.1 1.5-3.0 20-30+Energy crops o.i 15-20+

Hydropower '19.2 38-48 90+Wind power <0.1 1-2 lo+Solar photovoltaics <0.1 0.1-0.4 20+

Ceothermal energy 0.3 1-3 10-20+

63.5 1 13-435 334-406+

+ indicates that technical advances could allow the long:term potential to be muchhigher, similarly, a range is given where technical uncertainties make a single estimateimpossible

< means less than.

Source, Worklwatch institute

efficiency is likely to incr4se along with the adoption of renew-.able resources. .

During the next two decades, the traditional sources of re-newable energy will continue to be the most abundant. Fuel-wooCi use will probably rise by at least a third, providing anadditional 13 exajoules each year. Hydropower will grow evenmore rapidly, more than doubling by the end of the centuiyand providing the equivalent of an additional 19 to 29 ex-

270


ajoules. In both cases the main constraint will be the environ-mental chaos now caused by uncontrolled forest clearingwhich damages watersheds and makes fuelwood scarcer.

The short-term prospects of the other renewable energysources are less certain. Even the mature and economical tech-nologies run up against market obstacles: consumer un-familiarity and the lack of a ready. means of distribution. Yetsome studies make projections for the year z000 as though suchconstraints did not exista surefire recipe for inflated expecta-tions and subsequent. disappointment.

Some renewable energy sources are likely to break theseinitial barriers relatively soon, however. Passive solar design,'already commercially established in a few nations, could supply

exajoules of energy by the .end of the century, and solarcollectors 4 exajoules. Wind power should be contributing 1 to2 exajoules by the end of the century. For geothermal power,the figure is 1 to 3 exajoules.

Fbr other energy sources, developments over the nexttwenty years will probably be slower. The immediate prospectsfor solar photovoltaic s}istems are uncertain because it is notknown how fast costs will be brought down. With major tech-nical imprOvements in the next five to ten years, solar 'electric-ity could provide as much as.o.4 exajoules of energy by the year2000, but its contribution could well come later, too. Solar,ponds have immense potential. But the technology has not,been extensively used yet, and incIustries and cities will have tomake adjustments to use the pon s effectively. For the samereason, energy form liquid biolo ical fuels and urban wasteslooks to be fairly limited durir the next twenty years.

Considering these projecti. ng with the outlook forconventional energy resources reveals that renewable energywill provide close to half of the additional energy the world willbe using by the century's end. (See Table 11. 2.) Coal,.naturalgas, and nuclear, power will also become more important, ofcourse. Yet with world energy use as a whole growing more

2


slowly, increasing 'by little more than i percent per year overthe next twenty years, the renewable energy share of the globalenergy budget Should reach 26 percent.33

Solaces

Table 11. 2. World Energy Supplies, 1989 and s000

1980 2000 ChangeAmount Share Amount Share 1980-2000

OilNatural gasCoalNuclear powerReneWable energy

(exajoules) (Percent) (exajoules) (percent) (Percent)

1336182

863

Total 347

3818

113

7924 105

. 23113

26 -1518 +3024 +28

5 +19026 +75

too .433 too +24

Source: Woildwatch Institute.

At first glance, these numbers do not appear impressive.That is because many of these energy sources are starting froma base of nearly zero, while the established, conventionalsources of energy have already acquired great momentum. Yetthis eirly progress lays the groundwork for major leaps forwardin the ftiture. Twenty years is quite a short time horizon forassessing the hitt& of new energy souices with the potential'to support humanity for millennia.

What about the more distant future? It is obviously impossi-ble to make firm predictions about the world's energy systemsfifty or a hundred years from now, but the long-term prospectfor renewable energy is undeniably promising. Given enoughtime for technological developments and institutional adapta-tion, some currently insignificant energy sources could flourish:solar yonds, wind power, photovoltaics, and methanol frombiomass. With proper management, renewable energy sourcescould easily supply over 300 exajoulesas rhuch energy as theworld uses todaybefore running up against resource con-

.strain ts.

72

II


Many changes will obviously be needed before the world canhope to rely entirely on /enewable energy. On the average,energy will have to he used perhaps three times as efficientlyas it is now. New supply networks more appropriattto renew-able fuels will have to be developed. And many of the world'senergy institutions will have to be restructured. Each of thesechanges is beginning to occur, and none is as economically andenvironmentally oyerwhelming as the conventional energypath now seems.

Energy efficiency and the use of renewable energy sourcesare now central to the world's energy future. Even in the nexttwenty years they will provide a cushion 'that allows most na-tions to limit the use of coal and forego nuclear power develop-ment;ltogether. Synthetic fuels and advanced nuclear tech-nolog* once intended to be major energy sources in thetwenti-first century should also be reevaluated. By all accounts,these Years should witness a major flowering of renewable en-ergy, greatly limiting the need for m6re hazardous energysources.

0

2 73

12

Institutions forthe Transition

nstitutions and politicsnot resource limits or technologicalimmaturitymost constrain 'greater use of renewable energy.Greatly expanding use of renewable energy is a prudtrit stepto meet widely shared goals rather than a radical redirection ofsocial values. Renewable energy does not need special favorit-ism. Rather, renewable energyalong with energy conserva-tionis a logical centerpiece of sound energy policy.

Unfortunately, most energy policy is myopic, focusing onthe maximization of energy output with little reference to thecritical valuesjobs, equity, the environment, and nationalsecuritythat are affected by energy investments. This tunnelvision reinforces the already immenie power of the institutions

2'74

/ Ingtitntions for theyransition 261

. ,that provide and benefit from conventional energy sources. Asound energy policy is one that seeks to serve society ratherthan to harnesi society for the production of ever vaster quanti-

.

ties of energy. Such a policy puts high'priority on conservatione ..

and renewable energy.By and, large, the institutioas that have grown up around

conventional energy sources are inappropriate to renewgbleenergy. While exploitation of fossil and nuclear energy hingesincreasingly on the management of complex and far-flung insti-tntions, tapping renewable energy.requires the transfer of deci-sion.naking power, technical skills, and financial sesources toindividuals, local governments and the marketPlace. *Tofrchieve.these ends, research and development programs mustt

d

redirected, technical extension programs expanded, finan-ial tranifer mechanisms fashioned, and _utilities .oPened to

irket forces. The moving forcF for these changes must benew Coalitions of energy consworkers, businesspeo and vironmentalists cgnizant that

kners, farmers, homeowners,ci

their traditional agendas will be 'Met or lost in the crucible aenergt policy. -

A New R&D Agenda. . .

-Tapping renewable energy is first a question of creating newtechnologiesthe 'task of research and develop lie. The lastdecade has.witnessed a great increase in funding r renewableenorgy :research and dev'elopmenf, most of whcb has beenproductively spent. The new and exciting avenues for furtherresearch that these advances open up in turn give added weightto the case for a more balanced allocation of R&D monies,

among renewable, fossil, and nuclear energy. Carefully chan-neled into' neglected areas, R&D funding increases can be .expected to yield high payoffs in the years ahead. The ,cfial.,lenge is to give programs more flexibility and direction and todiversify them.

275'

r.

262 ReneWable Energy

During the 1950s and 196os, energy research .was synony-mous -with research on nuclear power. Hopes for,an-unliinitedand cheap supply of atomic energy led scientists to neglect thestudy of synthetic tels, photovoltaics, and other energy

....s6arce5. More sobering, no one looked ,critically at the rosyclairkis for atomic power until a large number of plants hadbeen built. Had research agendas been flexible, funds,,wouldhave been shifted into other sources as signs of trouble arose.

-Instead, the nuclear industry had by the seventies become largeand entrenched enough to 'bend the research agenda towardthe atorn ,,yith little reference to the econotnic potential ofnuclear pfAver plants or the strength of the alternatives.'

Enerty resiarch and development grew much more diverseafter 1973, when budgets for energyresearch of all kinds surgedupward. Spending increases for renewable energy have beenparticularly.drImatic. Startirii with less than i percent of en-ergy R&D funds in 1973, government and gov.ernment-stimulated expenditures for renewable energy in the Westernindustrial countries and.Japan rose t9,7 percent of the totalresearc.h budget in 1977 and then to 13* percent in 1981. Inabsolute terms spending rose from about $20 million in 1973to almost $1.3 billion in 1981. Private industry jn those coun-.tries spent.an additionar $1.5 billion dollars on renewable en-ergy R&D in 1981: In both absolute and'perrapita terms theUnited State.gfollowed by France) spent the most on renew-

. able.enetgy R&D in the 1970s. Japan is catching up. rapidly,however.2

Increases aside, the lion's share of energy R&D furlds stillgoes to fossil and nuclear energy. (See Figure 12. 1.). Whilebudgets have expanded, few countries have weighed the rela-tive potential of each new energy technology or based forward-looking programs on realistic assessments cienergy needs In1981 nuclear and fossil fuel R&D still absOibed 75 peicent.ofthe Western industrial countries' energy research budgets. Bil-lions of .dollars are being sp'ent annually on advanced nuclear

t

Institutions foi the Transition 263

reactor systems that cannot be economic until well into thenext century, if ever. Meanwhile, many promising avenues. ofreirwable energy research that could make a difference withinthe next decade or two are left unexplored for lack of; funds.3

The great leap forward 'in the 197os came because energysupplies had by then become a matters of crisis. But manyprograms born of crisis die with the passing of immediate peril.

nuclear - fossil renewlbte conservation. . fismon & fijels energy

k fusion

Figure 12.1. Government and Industry R&D Expenditure Indus-trial Countries, 1981.

A,

264 Rentwablelnergy.

Today the need is to look beyond he immediate crises to agradual but purposeful transition to reliance on renewable en-ergy.during the next several decades. While increasing spend-ing for all energy technologies duririg the 19705 spared govern-ments the Deed to make painful, politically divisive choices,spending for energy generally and renewables in particular in.the 198os is in, danger of being cut back in the face of ecoriomichard times. Much as the last hired is the first fired, cutbacksin energy spending are falling disproportionately on the newer,more promising technologies. In the United States, for in-stance, thg Reagan admin. tion is trying to turn back theclock by drastically tti ng government.supPort for renewableenergy and energy efficiency while increasing.spending on nu-clear power. Yet unless governments do an about-face, commit-ting themselves firmly to balanced and well-funded R&D pro-grams, the energy problems of the 19705 will erupt morevirulently in the late 198os and the 19905.4

As the technia and econOinic reviews in this book makeclear, the performance of reneWable energy technologies dur-ing the 1970s and the immediate prospects for further progresswariant greatly increased R&D allocations. A minimum short-term goal should be to spend one-third of all energy R&Dfundsin absolute levels, twice the present expenditureonrenewable energy. If ()Verdi energy R&D budgets cannOt beraised, both nuclear power's current performance and futureprospects make the-atom a logical energy source to reduce in

the budgets of most countrithing the resources devo a to renewable energy R&D

effectively means confrontin the sticky choices between-long-and short-ttrm, public Ad pn ate interests and applied versusbas c research. For technolo e s dissimilar as photOvoltaics

and odern-day wood stoves the o niversal rule is to build

instit ions around the techna gi and resources rather thanforcing R&D efforts to fit into areconceived of established.rganizations,5

/

278

Institutions for the Transition 265

In most .countries renewable energy research is conductedalong the same lines as other research ventures. In the UnitedStates and France, the two largest spenders for solar energyresearch, there are large central research facilitiesthe SolarEnergy Research Institute (SERI) and the Commissariat al'Energie Solaire (COMES). But they have a better record foraccumulating scientific knowledge than for adapting technolo-gies to user needs. In Japan the New Energy DevelopmentOrganization (NEDO) has the major responsibility and isnoted for its close cooperation with Japanese industry. Re-search iicn China, on the other hand, has been made part of awider effort to diffuse technologies into the countryside. There,advanced scientific work has been somewhat neglected. Indeveloping countries where research funds are scant most re-sources have been spent adapting imported technologies tolocal conditions and keeping abreast of Western develop-ments.§

While no research setup is applicable in every country, con-tinuity is vital to every nation's success. Assembling high-qual-ity research teams and conducting sophisticated research re-quires time and institutional stability. In the highly politicized,erisis-buffeted 1970s, such continuity was lacking. In theUnited States frequent reorganizations, disruptively short bud-get-cycles, shifts in program goals, and political meddling havereached epidemic proportions and have seriously compromisedthe large U.S. investment in renewable energy research.Needed in the.U.S. and eliewhere are performance goals andlong-term budget commitments.7

Increased spending for renewable energy R&D should bedirected toward establishing a sensible balance between thevarious technologies. Thus far research priorities have paral-leled those dominating the overall energy R&D agenda. (See'fable 12. 1.) Technologies that produce electricity, (solarthermal electric devices, large wind machines, and pholovol-taics) are favored over those yielding liquid fuels or direct

279

260 Renewable.Energy

heat (biomass-conversion technologies or passive solar de-sign). A bias toward high-technology, capital-intensive ap-proaches is also evident: Solar thermal electric, and oceanthermal electric technologies, which have only long-term 'andgeographically limited potential, rank higher than methanol-conversion technology and solakponds. The primary recipientsof increased spending should be biomass energy, direct use ofsolar energy, and small-scale applications of all rerrwable en-ergy technologies.8

Table Ir. i.Breakdown of Government R&D Expenditures forRenewable Energy in Industrial Countries, 1979 and 1981

Tschnology 1979 1981

(millions of dollars)

Solar heating & cooling 196 146Photovoltaics 143 . 203Thermal electric 1.16 156Wind . . 85 140Ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) 57 54Biomass 64 ro6Ceotherm'al 178 243

Total - 839 1048

Source- International Energy Agency, C982.

Given its present contribution and long-term potential, bio-mass energy R&D has been inadequately funded almost,every-where. Combustion, fermentation, gasification, and distillationtechniques have been in use for a long tithe, but performanceand efficiency could be vastly improved through modest invest-ments in chemical and engineering .research.

Energy crop research also deserves increased priority. Be-cause research into alternative feedstocks has been so neg-lected, new efforts to use biomass fuels in the United Statesand Brazil have been based on food crops. Many little-usedfood crops, coppicing frees, arid-land plants; aquatic plants,

"I

280

Institutions for he Transition 267

and agró-fore;try combinations cry out for examination. Cul-tivating promising candidates for qiergy cropping on pilotfarms in variow clirnates over extenjed periods alone can an-swer basic quegions about yield, water requirements, and soilimpacts. Investigations of alternative feedstocks take research-ers into agriculture ,and basic plant biologysciences alien tomost energy planners but essential to sound biomass energyuse. Hence: it makes sense to conduct such investigations inagricultural research centers expanded with the support of na-tional governments and international organizations.9

The second critical research gap is in support for small-scaleand community-sized systemssmall wind pumps, on-farmethanol stills, climate-sensitive design for tract homes, solarponds, and biogas digesters. Since many small firms, some ofthem struggling, are marketing these systems, government pro-grams that do not include industry as a partner can be counter:productive. An especially efficient approach to research is tochannel funds into industrial product improvement. When the1J.S. Department of Energy tried developing methane-from-landfill technology already on the market, potential users be-came concerned about the product's lack of commeiCial matu-rity and they withheld purchases while government researchers I

duplicated fhe systems. A better way to assist small companiesis through programs like that of the Rocky Rats Wind Center,where government scientists purchase small machined, checktheir performance in field conditions, and help cornpanies im-

prove the machines.10 :Among high-technology applications, the most deserving of

funding is photo'voltaics3 While the kind of intensive, well-finant.id private-sector interest that exists in Japan, Europe,and the United States lessens the need for government aid,goveinment should still carry out basic research and ensuretfrit all promising leads are pursued, especially those related to",neglected technologies or high-cost demonstrations. Yn the

2 8


United States, for example, both large wind machines andalteinative technology for hydropower facilities fall into this

--eqtegory.11Of course not all renesfable energy advances will come from

energy-technology development programs. Photovoltaic tech-nology benefited from advances made in semiconductors, whilelarge Wind machines now feature strong, lightweight synthetic'materials and alloys pioneered by the aerospace industry. Fur-ther advances in materials science are the key to overcomingthe corrosion problems plaguing active solar collectors and heatexchangers for geothermal and solar gradient ponds. Biomassconversion could be made more efficient if it employed cata-lysts used in the chemical and refining industries. Advances inplastic film technology could revolutionize the economics ofactive thlar collecOrs by reducing weight and cost. These andother opportunities underscore the need for fundamental re-search in materials science s well as for adequate basic sciencebudgets,12

Research on technologies of special importance to develop-ing countries is especiany urgent. Only a few of the largestThird World nationssuch as Brazil, China, and Indiacanafford to mount sizible research programs. The rest make dowith sometimes maladapted technologies pioineered in indus-trial countries. Only limited funds are available to work thekinks out of biogas technologies, fuelwood crops, wind pumps,and passive solar designs for humid, tropical climates. One wayto make sure this important work gets done is to first identifypriority'technologies that need work and then to mount newR&D ekrts within developing countries. Another is to estab-lish a small network of international research labOratories. mod-elect after existing agricultural research centers. One of theseinterconnected centers could work on fuelwood, another onother biOmass, research, a third on solar energy technologies,and a fourtll on small hydropower, wind power, and miscella-neous technologies. Funds fOr such programs could come from

282I.

histitutions for the.Transition 269

the United Nations, Alie World Bank, the industrial eountries,the wealthy oil-exporting nations, and the Third World coun-tries themselves. The new laboratories would stimulate impor-.tant new research efforts in the developing countries and en-courage the international exchange of information arnongThird World scientists.1

A final high-payoff arca of research is resource assessmentstudies of geothermal gradients, water flow in smaller rivers,wind availability, biomass inventories, and the like. By drawingattention to unused or overlooked energy sources, resourceassessments can catalyzienergy development. But because thebenefits of resource assessments are diffuse and difficult forprivate firms to turn to profit, governments must take the leadin making, such surveys. No small incentive is that such re-source assessments probably represent the most cost-effectiveinvestment in renewable energy governments can make.14

0*

Using Verrzacular Technologies

Unlike conventional, mostly standardized systems, renewableenergy technologies must be engineered to withstand diverseenvironmental stresses and handling by people with little tech-nical training. While not all renewable energy systems are whatIvan, Illich calls "vernacular technologies"small-scale anddispersed machines and toolsmany are. The concept is im-portant since where engineering and human elements. havebeen gi n proper emphasis, technological adaptation has beenrapid jfd negative side effects minimal. Whbre they have not,th pposite holds true.15

To fully meet the unique engineering challenges posed bythe use of renewable energy, technology development pro-grlarns must focus more on durability and simplicity, less onhigh perfoimancethe touchstone of fossil fuel and nuclearengineering. A new institutional focus is needed, too, one cen-tered on extension services, consumer education, and technical

2 8 3


training systems rather than on laboratories alone.Renewable energy technologies are unique among energy

sources in the degree to which they must be fine-tuned to localclimatic conditions. While a nuclear power plant or oil refinerywould be essentially the same whether built in Central Africaor Scandinavia, a single solar collector design would simply notwork in both regions. Variations in dust, temperature, sunlight,humidity, wind, and rain imposedifferent design requirements.Since renewable energy systems are designed to tap,the ener-gies of the climate, they cannot easily be sheltered :from thewearing effects of the weather. Rain, dust, wind, and sunlightcan rust, 'pit, topple, ind crack systems. Renewable energytechnologies must be durable enough to withstand the ex-tremes of the weather as well' as ,the incessant variation ofday-to-day natural energy flows. Some of the' biggest problemsof renewabe energy systems come from their inability to with-stand extreme storms. Small hydro facilities are often darnagedby severe floods that occur every decade or so; some types ofactive solar heaters can be ruined by an unseasonal frost; windmachfnes can be destroyed by extremely high gusts; and hunt-canes could sink OTEC plants. Adapting renewable energysystems to climatic extremes is an economic imperative be-cause they must often operate over a period of one to threedecades with only minor maintenance so as to justify theirinitial costs.16

Often high efficiency must be sacrificed to improve thedurability and to lower the co,st,of the technology. During theearly 1.97os, when active solar heaters were reinvented in thelaboratories of many industrial countries, scientists stressedhigh.performance only to discover that less efficient but more,durable models worked better on real rooftops. This lesson wasbrought home on a grand scale in the U.S. government's SolarHeating and Cooling Demonstration program. Between %974and 1978 the U.S. government funded the installation:of sev-eral dozen different solar water and space heater designs. Most

284

1

' Institutions for the Transition 271

of the complicated,rultraefficient systems soon broke down,while the simple but hardy modelsmost little change&fromthesolar collectors used in California and Florida half a centurybeforeworked.17.

The failure to take climatic and ecological variations intoaccount when transferring hydropower technology from oneregion to another has engendered many problems. When SO-viet pla4ners helped China design the Sanman Corge,Damduring tHe 1950s, they assumed sedimentation rates typical ofSoviet rivers. The Yellow River; it turns out, silts up muchmote rapidly, and three-quarters of the dam's power and water-storage capacity were lost within a decade of the project'scompletion. Similarly, Many active solar collectors and photo-voltaic arrays designed by European' firms have failed inSahelian Africa, where dust storms impair their performance.In response to these challenges, corporations and developmentgroups are adapting these technologies to local climatic condi-tions. Within developing countries,, the need is to enhancelocal Or regional technical capability to assess and modify re-newable energy devices.18

Every bit as essential as how well'a renewable energy tech-nology fits into the Physical environment is how well it fits inwith the habits, needs, and skills of the people who must useit. The classic case of mismatch between users' customs andabstract technological promise is the solar cooker, Which hasrun up against a solid wall of user resistance. Yet users' prefer-ences cannot be considered a dead crust of habit that must bebroken before "development" can be undertaken. Instead they

. embody long-proven practises that are best built upon ratherthan scrapped. Naturally enough, technologies that mesh withrather than disrupt traditional patterns of living are the mostlikely to come into widespread use.19

Like any other technology, renewable energy systems alsorequire alert and frained operators. Houses burn down whenwood stoves are used cavalierly; biogas generators have to be

ii 285

272 , Renewable Energy.

periodically purged of impurities, and pipes in solar water heat-ers freeze and burst when owners forget to drain out the'water or add antifreeze, just as power, plants shut down whensomebody closes the wrong valve. Still, renewable energytechnologies do 'differ from conventional energy technolo-gies in one regard." Large numbers of nonexpert usei§ mustbe able to master their maintenance anct use. Living in apassivesolar hoUse, using biogas, or burning wpot is differentfroin switching on a heater supplied with nuclear electricitybecause the user is the producer and the operator as well as tlieconsumer.

In many cases, high user involvement has been both a bless-ing and a curse. Much of the pioneering use of small renewableenergy.systems in the United States and Western Europe hascome from backyard tinkerers and "do-it-yourselfers" whomake up a small percentage of most communities. However,what these people see., as opportunities to become more gelf-reliant and exercise their technical skills, many people view as

-chores. Consequently, the widespread use of small-scale energydevices depends, on making their operation as simple as-possi-ble. Automatic governors for small hydropower facilities, ther-mostatically controlled drains for solar water heaters, automaticpellet loaders for wood furnaces, and light-sensitive shade con-trols fo frassive solar houses are important steps, toward ac-celerating mass diffusion of renewable energy technologies.Here, as in environmental adaptation, success may involvesmall iacrifices of performance and efficiency.20

Education, information, and extension programs are the keyto the effective use of eVen simple-to-operate systems. Basicskills and basic knowledge can be taught in elementary andsecondary schools much as courses in mechanical artg; homeeconomics, and driver's eduCation are today. Low-cost or freeenergy audits for households and loans for feasibility studies:-have already helped American and European consumers andsmall resource owners assess their energy-investment oppor-

2 8 6 .


tunities. The industrial and agricultural extension programsthat have played such an important role in spreading skills tosmall businessmen and farmers could also be retooled to help-adults become familiar with renewable energy's technical side.

To appreciate the importance of teaching maintenance skillsto users, consider how biogas digesters have been iotroducedin China and India. In China installers and operators fromevery village that was to receive a digester were trained. In.India the program was almost exclusively hardware orieined,focusing on building as many generators as possible and relyingon outside technical expertise. Today China has twenty-fivetimes as many digesters as India and fully half of India's digest-ers are in disrepair. In energy, as in health care, the Chinesehave emphasized raising the entire rural population's technicalcompetence rather than refining the skills of a lechnical elite.Other countries, particularly the Western industrial countries,need tG follow this example and balance their elite-orientedapproach to technical education to ensure that ail their citizensacquire the minimal technological literacy necessary to func-tion in a world of increasingly dispersed energy systems.21

Simplifying the operating requirements of a technology can,of course, make the system itself more complexwhich makesinstallation and repair networks all the more ithportant. Just asthe automatic transmission simultaneously simplified operationand complicated repair of the automobile, io too the automaticcontrol systems of increasing importance in renewable energysystems will make quality installation and repair more critical.Accordina) the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission,imprciperly installed or operated wood stoves of the newer andmore efficient but hotter-burning variety are causing an es-timated 1,3Go house fires a year. And the improper installation

\ of some solar hot water heaters has undermined 0..economicsof the systems and tainted the public perception of the newindustry. As with skills like auto repair, plumbing, and homebuilding, installer certification and training standards set by

26'7


industry and unions an,Lsupported by governmebt are sorelyneeded.22

In developing coin tri#s the lack of adequate installation,maintenance, and reai networks and facilities greatly im-pedes the use of renewable energy technologies. Many other-wise promising projects to install wind puMps, biogas digesters,and other devices have failed once technical experts who set upthe projects have departed. To remedy this probleth govern-ments need to start training programs within villages (espe-cially economically marginal communities) that teach peopleto operate aria repair their own devices or to estabfish smallvillage-level industries, to manufacture, install, and repair thenew technologies. China has taken the latter approach tn smallhydropower development, and the Intermediate Technology.Developiinent Group is attempting a similar strategy with windpumps in several countries.23

Many of the undesirable side effects associated with dis-persed energy systemsdeforestation, air pollution front woodburning' , and agricultural soil erosioncan best be tackled bydesigning control systems into the technology and includingenvironmental protection in user-education programs. It sim-ply is not feasible to monitor smoke emissions from each ofmillions of wood stoves, wood gasifiers, ethanol stills, and meth-anol distilleries. Vastly more efficient and effective is regulatingthe manufacture of the technology. Governments could re-quire wood stove manufacturers to equip their modgls witficatalytic combusters much as some now require the auto indus-try to equip vehicles with pollution-contra features. Still, ac-tive owner involvenient remains vital. For just as a 300 auto-motive catalitic converter can be ruined if a consumerunthinkingly fills up with leaded gasoline, so too a wood stoyecombuster can be impaired if painted wood or metal foils aretossed into the fire. Realistically, trying to design an idiot-prooftechnology will probably remain an elusive goal rather than areality.24

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Institutions for the Trinsition 275

Seed Money: Financing the Transition

New technologies and the support structures to make themwork create energy opportunities. But people cannot exploitthese opportunities unless they have both financial incentivesand access to capital. Taxes on conventional fuels can bothmotivate people to use new sources of energy and raise therevenue to finance them. Gradually raising energy prices andmaking financing assistance in'orpe etjuitable could speed anorderly transition to renewable energy and help the poor, oftenthe victims of energy policy. Building equitk into energy pro-grams is more than a matter of social justice, it is essehtial to `-making a 'successful transition to renewable energy.) Whilesome countries have recognized the link between large but,temporary oil revenues and the possibility of building morepermanent energy systems, few have successfully channeledcapital resources to those best able to exPloit renewable energy.Grants, loans, and tax breaks are needed to put capital into thehands'of consumers and businesses.

The gr6test disinmtives to the widespread use Of renew-able energY technologies are government controls th* keep the

. price of, fossil fuel's below their true or replacement costs. Pricecontrols encourage energy waste and put renewable energytechnologies at a competitive disadvantage. Indeed, in 'parts ofthe United States that rely on price-controlled natural gas,things havehardly changed since the sixties. But in oil-depend-ent northern New England, where prices for heating fuel rosefrom 200 a gallon in 1972 to over $1.00 a gallon in 1980, oilconsumption has fallen by 12 percent annually and some 55percent of all househdlds haze turned to wood as their principalsource of heating fuel. Use of wood and solar energy for resi-dential and commercial heating would undoubtedly have in-creased even more rapidly had not 45,900 oil consumers "shiftedto price-regulated natural gas.25 .

In other industrial countrimenergy-pricing structures take a,

... 28 9

27() Renewable Energy'

variety of forms. Consumers in Western Europe and Japan payprices close to the cost of obiaining additional supplies ofenergy today%. In both regions expensive imported oil is anenergy staple so the ivcentive to restrain oil consumption

Ithrough taxes is strong. In contrast, Canada and the UnitedStates have done, the least to bring energy prices to. replace-ment ,cost levels. Long accustomed to cheap energy, both mustnow make a painful choice between a purposeful phase-in ofhigher price's or more sudden price shocks. While the twonations have recently decontrolled oil prices and are slowlydethntrolling natural gas priceg, those moves need tO be supple-mented by further natural gas price increases and additionaltaxes on gasoline.26

The Soviet' Union produces virtually all the oil and gas ituses, providing insulation from the world market. The govern-ment also sets prices far below prevailing world levels. Lowprices do not, however, necpsarily stimulate additional con-sumption because central planners may not allocate resources

.to the sectors that would take advantage of low prices. TheSoviet Union has been spared the problems of an oil-dependenttransportation sector primarily because planners have not givenhigh priority to building automobiles. Then, too, during the1950s and 196os the Soviets stuck with coal while the rest ofthe industrial world switched to oil and gas. At the time thesepolicies were viewed by Western observers as archaic, butpartly as a result, Soviet oil and gas reserves are high and thereis relatively little oil-dependent capital stock today. Still, eventhis stability in the energy economy has had its price. Sovietindustries that rely on oil have had little incentive to conserveor use new energy sources.27

Thepractice of holding fossil fuel prices below replacementcost is also widespread in oil-eiporting countries. All the Mid-dle Eastern vembers of-OPEC, as well as Venezuela, Nigeria,and Mexico/. sell petroleum products to domestic consumers

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Inititutions for the. Transition 277

for a fraction of their export value. Gasoline in Saudi Arabia,for example, sells for 250 a gallon, and the roads are cloggedwithslarie American-made automobiles:While sirch cheap en-ergy has been a powerful stimulus to rapid internal econoniicgrowth, it is also locking these countries into petroleum-basedeconomies.28

In many developing countzies without significant hydrocar-bon resources, governments subsidize the price of importedkerosene to sfreltef the poor who depend on kerosene to meetbasic needs. According to Indian analyst Amulya Reddy, thesame distorting impact of price controls operating in NewEngland or the Soviet Union is at work in lirdia. Three-quar-ters of India's 116 million households depend wholly on kero-sene for lighting, and controlling kerosene's price even for thesake of the majority has had a serious unintended effect ontransportation patterns. Since kerosene and diesel fuel are in:terchangeable, the government had to extend price controls tocover diesel fuel as well. As a result, the'number of diesel-usingtrucks rose rapidly mad railroad use declined, even though rail-roads are several times more efficient movers of goods and usedomestically mined coal. Spurred by increases in trucking,India's Oil imports have continued to rise. In 1980 oil importsconsumed 8o percent of export earnings. Meantime, invest-,ments in biogas, wood gasifiers, or other domestic renewableenergy sources that could directly replace kerosene go a-beg-ging.29

Behind such seemingly backward policies is a well-placedfear of harmirig the poor. Since energy costs account for adisproportionate share of poor people's budgets, higher pricesoften mean doing without. Small wonder riots broke out inCairo and other major Third World cities in the late seventieswhen kerosene subsidies were reduced. For policyrpakers thechallenge is to balance energy gpals and equity goalsa crucialtask since simply decontrolling the prices of widely used fuels

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278 Renewabk Energy

deprives many consumers of the means to invest in energyefficiency and renewable energy at the precise instant they havethe most incentive to do so.30

The problem of the Poor has put energy goals on a collisioncourse with the desire for equity in many counpies. This con-flict has beers particularly unfortunatA because from the stand-point of sociOy as a whole the greatest opportunities for usingrenewable energy and improving energy efficiency are amongthe poor who have the least ability to inveitwhether it be inhome insulation in Appalachia, a new wind pump in EastAfrica, or a more fuel efficient tractor in Mexico.

The key to steering between the Scylla of price controls andthe Charybdis of inequality js to raise fuel prices through fueltaxes and to recycle 'the revenues for consumer and businessinvestments in energy alternatives and efficiency. This ap-proach gives consumers the incentive and the capital they needto invest. On a global basis the shift td ieplacement cost pricing'through takes will yield an enormous windfallthe severalhundred billion dollar annual difference between the cost ofextracting, transporting, and refining oil and its market value.This windfall could be the world's operating budget for theenergy transition. Prudently reinvested in energy efficiency andrenewable energy, this treasure is the bridge to a sound energysystem. If squandered on,unproductive subsidies to decliningindustries, defense buildups, corporate buying sprees, or luxuryconsumption by the elite, this treasure will be irretriet%ably lost,making the transition to renewable energy ntuch more difficult..

For each country the optimal way to spend its oil revenuesto promote sustainable energy systems will differ. In theUnited States the most productive use of the revenues of a"windfall" severance tax on decontrolled oil and gas is to fundhousing weatheriiation for low-income people and to providetahc credits and loans for a variety of renewable energy sources.For developing countries without significant oil reserves, gov-ernment subsidies from imported petroleum products should

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be redirected to the purchase of domest i! biogas digesters andefficient cook stoves, the development of village woodlots, andthe creation of domestic industries that manufacture- renew-able energy technologies. Sri Lanka has already stopped subsi-dizing the purchase of imported fuel and begun *rustead to fundtree planting and charcoal produetion.31

Recycling the money from the oibaindfall into alternativeenergy systems will be easidt where oil reserves are substantial.rThe state of Alaska, for example, has already set aside $5 billionin oil revenues from the North Slope for an ambitious hyto-electric development program. Venezuela has followed a simi-lar path, devoting mdst of the knds it has set aside to carryingout its oil-financed five-year energy plan to hydrolectric pro- 4jects. Using a small part of its vast oil revenues, Saudi Arabiahas funded various photovoltaic and solar pond imtstigationsin the hope bf making sunlighi a source of permanent wealth.32

Western industrial coUntries wi h declining oil and.gas.re-serves have not fared well at kee ing alive the link betweentemporark oil revenues an a ,ternative energy futnie. The.,United Kingdom has used the -revenues from its North Sea oiland gas primarily to meet general government operating needs.The Netherlands, faced with the decline of the natural gasfields that have been a major sourc$ of, postwar wealth, has yetto institute replac.ement cost pricint to extend supplies orfinance alternatives. Even the largest oil' producer (and con-sumer) in the West, the United States, has allowed oil ownersto reap most of the benefits from oil decontrol. An attempt in1979 to fund .low-income energy assistance, alternative fuels,mass transit, and the Splar Energy and Energy ConservationBankwith proceeds from the windfall profits tax has largely lostmomenturn.33

Financing the transition to renewahle energy will be mostdifficult in developing countries that lack petroleum. Interna-tionil experts meeting under the auspices of the North-SouthRoundtable in May 1981 noted that "the energy crisis in

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280 Renewable Energy .

developing countries is not a crisis of scarcity of energy re-sources but a scarcity of finance." The World Bank estimatesthat developing nations need to invest $6o billion to $8o billionin energy during the eighties. Approximately one-quarter, ofthis would be for renewable enerpin'tially, fuelwood and\\11hydropower projects. Yet competing needs raise agriculturalproductivity, build iriaustries, and establish ntodern sanitation,health, and educational services press these countries hard,"

Most developing countries will have to rely upon externalim;estment and aid supplemented with internally generatedresources ancIrt their investment priorities carefully. Theywill also have to depend heavily upon the international privatebanks. Such government-supported institutitm as the WorldBank and the regional development banks can ,have an all-important leveraging effect, encouraging private investment 2Swell as providing- loans for projects of scant interest to the

_

private sector. The World Bank significantly increased its en-ergy lending in the late seventies and early eighties, but resur-recting the proposal for an energy affiliate to the World Banka move proposed and then blocked by the Unitect Statesis th , nly way to accelerate adequately the flow ofipubliC aswell as private investment dollars. A successful example is Bra-zil, which has financed large renewable energy investmentspith foreign loins that suPplernent revenues from taxes levied.(on imported petrolcum.35

Oil exporting F.aeions have begun helping the poorer ThirdWorld couritries retool their energy systems. Mexico andVenezuela, for example, rebate 30 percent of Ile oil paymentsof ten Latin American countries in the form a loans, with theinterest rate set at 2 percent if the funds are invested to pro-mote greater energy self-sufficiency. To take such financialrecycling one step farther, Thomas Hoffman aiid Beian John-son of the Internationalinstitute for Environment and Devel-

e. opment have proposed setting up international mechanisms to

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ri) Institutions for the Transition 281

'channel oil revenues into high-payoff investments in poorer._'countriq.36

Renewables often represent a good investment choice forrcapital-poor develoPing countries because the equipmentneeded to harness this energy can be manfactured domesti-cally, employing their most abundant and underused resourcehuman labor. ,Unlike coal or nuclear power, which requireimported equipment, Many renewable energy technologieisuch as small dams, efficient Woot stoves, fuel lots, and biogasdigesters 'can be produced by people who would otherwise, beidle. This is the secret of China's rural energy successes. Off-season agricultural workers in China have built a basic infra-structure that would have been unaffordable if financed withborrowed funds from abroad.57

Putting capital resources into the hands of those best ableto use renewable energy has been achieved Only rarely. Directgrants and cheap credit (low-interest loans or interest subsidies)are the least cumbersome and most equitable ways to transfercapital. Unfortunately, the subsidies for renewable .senergytechnologies most widely available now are tax credits and loanguarantees for a fairly restricted set of teohnologies. As such,they represent an important first.itep to reversing longstandrikdiscrimination against renewable energy, but incentives aimedprinlarily at the affluent are ultimately limited in 'their effect.

These drawbacks notwithstanding, tax credits and exernp-ti2.ns have had some positive effects. In the United States a 4Qpercent . tax credit on the first $10,000 spent On renewableenergy equipment has been a major stimulus in the growth ofthe renewable energy market, particularly that for solar.waterheaters. Brazil has exempted solar equipment and loo percentalcohol-fueled automobiles from the national value-added tax,a subsidy of approximately 35 percent Many states and citiesin the United States have alsO exempted, renewable energyequiçient from property and sales taxes. But do large ,tax

4-r


breaks add up to boondoggles? A recent study of California's-generous solar tax credits found that gas brought from the ,

. North Slope of Alaska to CaVornia would still enjoy greater taxsubsidies than solar water heating. A more serious problem isthe bias of rene*able energy tax credits that apply 'to activesolar collectors but not passive design, to ethanol plants but notwood stoves, and to alternative fuels but not fuel-efficient au-tomobiles.38 .

The single lliggest drawbaa to the incentives approach .isequity. The many who do not pay income taxes cannot benefit.Where credits are funded through taxes on fossil fuels, the poorsuffer twice:first frOm higher prices-and then from denial ofaccess to aid. A rninimum-equity,goal should be making -taxcredits to individuals refundable so that the .poor can receivedirect grants. Also equitable and effective are loans and inter-est-rate subsidies. Since most renewable energy systems entailhigh initial costs but no fuel costs thereafter, lowering the costof borrowed money can be a powerful investment incentive.For just such reasons the U.S. government's Solar Energy andConservation Bankwhich would have made available $1.2billion over a four-year period cf or interest-rate subsidies onloans to households and small b sinesseswas created. Whenits way is cleared of political obstacles, the Bank could be animportant aid to low-income homeowners who cannot obtaincommercial loans on any terms and to older industrial citieswith badly deteriorated building stock.39 .

The least common but potentially most effective and equita-ble means of financing the transition to renewable energy is the'direct grant. Grants foster equity because not only those well-off enough to pay taxes benefit. Then, too: under the grantssystem the consumer gets the money immediately instead ofat tax teturn time., Inv Japan the solar collector industry hasbenefitted greatly from government grants to consumers equalto 30 percent of the cost of the system.40

Another worthy model for direct grant programs is the Ca-

296

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Institutions for te Transition 283

nadian Home Insulation Program (CHIP) pioneered first inN&,a Scotia and then expanded to the entire country in 1979.Puringthe program's first two yeArs in Nova Scotia, 15 percentof the households took advantage of $800 cash grants for ho-meweatherization. Canadian energy analysts attribute the pro-gram's success to its simplicity and to an effective media cam-paign aimed -at potential participants. Similirly, CanadassForest Industry Renewable Energy (FIRE) program has chan-neled over a quarter of a billion dollars into cost-slfared pro-jects, primarily in wood burning. Room for applying similarprograms elsewhere .in the world is great Indeed.41

Opening Up the Gridt

4

,No institution is more important to the fate of renewableenergyor more in need of reditectionthan the eleclricutility. The last decade has heen ?particularly painful one forutility managers. Slowing rates of growth in electricity use,rising environmeral conflicts, and confusion about the poten-tial of new electricity-generating technologies have called intoserious question practices and expectations inherited from anearlier era of rapid growth and rising .4ceWralizatitin. Yet no-where more than among electricity pr-ockicers is consektionthe logical institutional forerunner of renewdble energy.42

With a few notable exceptions the utilities have so far re-sisted change. But such entrenchment has been at the sacrificeof profit,s as wel as broader,social concerns. In serious need ofreform are pric ng, financing, competitive access, and struc-ture. More spec fically, the price consumers pay for electricitymust more accurately reflect the social costs of producing eleci;tricity, utilities must help finance energy efficiency and renew-able energy, nonutility power producers must be encouraged tooperate, and today's giant utilities must be restructured into agreater number of smaller, more workable entities. .

Sweeping in their implications, these reforms are neither,

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284 , Renewable Energy ...

untested nor incompatible with QUO business practice.Where these changes have been made o4rthe last decade, thelecord reveals success. Kept.on their present course, utilitiescould be major obstacles to a renewable energy future; redi-rected, utilities' cobld,be powerful instruments of change.

As for the major sour`ce of consumer problemsprice settingthe rising cost of generating electricity from new power,plants has made traditional patterns largely obsolete. Logicallyenough;prices were set to encourage more consumption is thecost of generating electricity fell steadily between the.begin- tning of the century and the early seventies. But as powerbecame more expensive to generate, rate structures were slowto change. While the overall cost of electricity delivered to theconsumer has risen in the last decade: most rates still reflect theaverage cost Of producing electricity,' which is a mixture ofolder cheap power and more expensive cower from newersources. As a result, consumers buy at a price considerablybelow what it will cost the utility to produce additional power,and thus consumers use large amounts of electricity.43

One solution ti? this squeezesimplY decontrolling the priceof electricityhas too much consumer opposition to work. Butestablishing "life-line rates" for the minimal amount of elec-tricity needed, for each houiehold to meet basic needs and thenletting the rest of electricity sold reflect the true cost of proda7N5tion is one means of encouraging conservation and the use ofalternatives without harming consumers.,With fife-line rates,consumers can get at an extremely low price enough electricityto power houscehold appliances and lighting. Tried experimen-tally in California, life-line rates give consumers reason to re-duce electricity use but keep bills fair and affordable.44

To restrain demand and encourage consumers to uselalterna-fives without debilitating price increases some utilities havedevised ingenious demand-management schemes. As early as1966 utilities in West Cesmany began charging consumers lessfor power supplied during periods of slack demand. Over ten

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years this irnp.c change altered consumption patterns sodramatkally t t plans for several large new power plants couldbe canceled Gther utilities have achieved similar results by"interrupting" power to large customers during peak demandperiods Detroit Edison, for example,can shut og over 2.90,000water heaters from its headquarters. Consumers who volunteerto be interruptible customirs receive a 35,percent reduction inrates A grong number of utilities are also trying to influenceelectricity anand by offering consumer's free energy audits todiagnose energy-sav ing.opportunities or by giving away thermalblankets to wrap around uninsulated ele9tric water heaters. Asutilities become more deeply involved in structuring electricitydemand, they will be well equipped to benefit from, and shapenew technologies that displace electricity but rely on utilitiesfor backup Extending these demand-management schemesshould be a high priority for consumers, utility regulators, andutility managers alike. All clearly benefit."

Exceptions aside, the trend toward utility demand manage-ment is most advanced in Japan, Western Europe, and oil-reliant parts of the United -States. Soviet utilities and U.S.utilities with extensive coal, nuclear, or hydropower capacityhave been slower to adopt new plicing pr'aciices, and in theThird World few utilities manage demand. Yet electricity costsin developing co ntries are Ivigh, and recent analyses of powersystems in u an industrial regions of China, India, and Brazilindicate 1t instituting more rational pricing systems alongwith inyesting in more effiGient transmission networks offerhigher rates of return than building new power plants does."

Utilities are in a near-ideal position to make financial assist-ance available to their customers to improve energy 4ficiencyand use renewable energy. They have access to large bmountsof capital at low interest rates and, unlike commercial lenders,they are accustomed to making investments with long-termpayoffs. Utilities also have established relationships with elec-tricity consumers. .Expanding these ties is much easier and

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286 . Renewable Energy

cheaper than Suilding new institutions from the ground up.Many utilities, most of them in the United States, havebegunmaking low-interest loans, offering cash rebates, or rentingsystems to their customers. In many cases customers make loanpayments through monthly electric bills. So cwnpelling is thefiriancial logic of these, arrangements that many utilities coUldbe spending half their Capital funds on consumer financing by1993.47

The prospect of extensiye utility involvement in renewableenergy and conservation has many alternative energy advocatesworried. Their fear is that utilities will drive up the costs andreduce competition. Such dangers are real. The key to skirtingthem is regulatory supervision, not-cutting utilities out of thetransition. Regulations should enable consumers to choosetheir own contractors and systems and should protect consUm-ers who choose not to take advantage of the utility's plan,making sure they do not end up Subsidizing those who do.48

As Utilities take on new roles they will have to shed and share',others. The most important ohange will be in electricity pro-

dUction itself. All utilities, whether in capitalist or socialistnations, ope'iate as legal monopolies. They have been grantedthe sole legal right to buy, sell, produce, and distribute electric-ity in a given area. These monopoly concessions have beengranted on the assumption that electricity productiori and mar-keting would be less efficient and effective were several compa-nies competing to provide service. Once that rationale madesense. The pioneers of electrification in the early twentiethcentury quickly learned that setting up competing parallel net-works of distribution wires and transformer stations for thesame customers inevitably raised ,consumers' costs and loweredproducers' profits. Charters for the-exclusive right to service aparticular area were thus granted by Inunicipal governments.Along with that right came a legal monopoly on power genera-tion, even though production Of electricity was never really a

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Aitutions for the Transition 287

natural monopolyt The appeal of building ever larger "plantsobscured this distinction until recently when large scale lost.some of, its economic luster.49

Competition will revive in the electricity industry if utilitiesare required to purchase power from independent power pro-ducers. l4p Europe utilities commonly purchase cogeneratedelectricity from industry and municipalities. Fregsh utilitiesAy power from small darn owners, and Danish w requiresutilities to purchase power from small power producers. Evenmore far-reaching is the U.S. Public Utility Regulatory PoliciesAct (PURPA), which was passed in 1978 and which requiresutilities to purchase electricity from small producers at a priceequal to what it would cost the utility to produce electricityfrom new power plants. Already PURPA has transformed theeconomics of smallIcale elecfricity generation in the UnitedStates, and an estimabed .1 2,000 megawatts of new electricityproduction capacity will resulthy 1995. Dozens of small firmsspecializing in wind, geothermal, small-scale hydro, and cogen-eration have sprung up to prociuce and sell power to utilities.Under attack by some utilities, PURPA is nonetheless criticalto the deyelopment of new sources of electricity.501

Opening the grid to competition does not, of courSe, dis-qualify utilities frOm producing electricity stom renewablesources. Many technologieslarge wind machines, centralizedphotovoltaic systems, and solar thermal electric plants amongthemenjoy economies of scale that make utilitY involvementparticularly appropriate. In fact:despite the inertia and resist-ance of most 'utilities, a growing number have begun to lookseriously at promoting renewable energy, In the United States216 utilities,spent $26 million on 943 projects in 1981, morethan double the 1977 level. Under pressure from state regula-tors and faced with public opposition to coal and nuclear powerplants, California utilities accounted for much of the spending.in Europe utilities have begun investigating wind fUrbines. and

*301

Renewable Energy awl*

solar thermal electric devices, while expanding reliance onsmall-scale dams, district heating, and municipal waste-to-energy plants.51-

The fourthNand post difficult utility reform needed is areversal of the seemingly inexorable trend toovard centraliza-tion that has prevailed since the 1920s. In the,early days ofelectrification electric utilities were Allah. Typically, eachserved only one community, and many were ownted or fran-chised by the people they served. The improved economics oflarge plants and the technology of long-distance transmissionmade centralized management of far-flung power networkspossible, and utilities consolidated to exploit these possibilities.Before long, localized distribution systems had become mereappendages of larger systems. In France and the United King-dom all electricity production and distribution is now per-formed by one government-owned company. In the So VietUnion and most Third World nations utilities have been cen-trally operated and state-owned sincertheir creation.52

With the advent of new opportunities for conservation andsmall-scale renewable energy technologies, the optimum size of \utilities is no longer "extra large." With key important inyest-rnent decisions now revolving around demand management orsmall-scale power production, local networks will 'become ever

more important and ever more difficult for centralized bureau-cracies to manage efficiently. Then, too, as utilities begin'buy-ing power from locally owned sources and financing conserva-tion-related building improvements, local governments willacquire a greater stake and ability to regulate them accordingto local goals.55

Since centralized organizations rarely break up of their ownaccord, governments will have to promote or force this diffu-sion of power. Once utilities 'become smaller, government'srole will shift again. Then the key task will be Maintainingminimum operating standards for all utilities and preservinglong-distance transmission systems where they are economic

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Institutions lot the Transition 289

Obviously this revitalization will be easiest where remnants ofthe early lbcal systems still exist.

k.mong existing energy-supPly institutions in the industrialworld, the U.S. rural electric cooperatives (ntnprofit corpora-tions owned by the rural consumers of electric power) are wellsuited in terms of scale, st&pcture, and supply opportunities tbseve as prototypes of nev; utility system?' for the renewableenergy economy. The more than i,000 cooperatives in forty-six

states serve '75 percent of ,the land area of the United States.and fill 15 peicent of U.S. power needs. Since 90 percent ofall coops fiave a capacity of no larger .fhan 50 megawatts and30 pereent require less than io megawatts of power, a few small

*renewable energy projects can meet most or all of the averagerural/etectric cooperative's power rieed;. The Rivet ElectricCooperative in Gaffney, South Carolina, demonstrated thiswhen it renovated an abandoned small hydro plant capable ofmeeting one-fifth of its tofal power demand.54.;,16.,

Another appealing attribpte of. the rural electric cooperativesis their diversity and flexibility. Coops are small enough tO takeadvantage of whatever energy resources are available locally.Perhaps just as important, their history as industry pioneersmakes coops natural agents of change.

Empowering People

Building the institutions needed to realize renewable energy'spotential is a political task. The basic challenge is to empowerpeople with the knowledge, resources, and freedom required tosolve their own energy problems. Empdwering people requiresredirecting existing national enmry prograrris, mobilizing localinitiative, and unshackling individual effort. Powerful intereststhat benefit from the current state of affairs wilt resist change.Overcoming this entrenched opposition will be possible only ifthe beneficiaries of renewable energyfarmers, small busi-nesses, environmentalists, consumers, homeowners, and the

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290 Renewable Miergy

unemployedband together and pursue coherent political ob-jectives. During the last decade, institutions have been pio-neered that foster the transformation of powerless energy; con-fumers into self-reliant energy producers. The next politicallyrn'ore difficult step, is making these institutions the rule ratherthan tIV exception.

Today most energy decision making occurs at the nationallevel, where tbe highly concentrated interests of centralizedenergy usually prevail. Their strength is reinforced by the wide-spread public perception that energy is a complex esoteric

'apbject best left to energy experts and the energy industry.nlerefore, it is no surprise that government spending theworld over is skewed toward the large-scale centralized tech-,nologies favored by large corporations and large public agen-cies. Thus, Third World countries build large rather thin slim!ldams, the U.S.,government spends R&D dollars on solar powertowers instead of orr passive solar design, and Brazil's alCoholprogram benefits nobody more than it does the powerful sugar

barons.55The key to counterbalancing the power of entrenched inter-

ests at the national level is formulating new political coalitionsamong the latent constituencies of renewable energy. In pollafter poll the citizens of mostscountries show widespread pref-erence for renewable energy and conservation over, nuclearpower and synthetic fuels. But the potential beneficiaries ofrenewable energydo not see themselves as bouhd by a common

. interest, so 'they pursue other political priorities.56One lesson of the 19705, however, is that declining rural

incomes, housing stock deterioration, and many other issuesthat receive more attention than energy problems do are rootedpartly ih misguided ehergy policies.

With,new fuel crops farmers could cut operating costs andcapture new markets. An ambitious effort to add solar equip-ment to houses would help revive the housing industry, cuthomeownere.bills, and put many uneinployed people back to

304


work. Recognizing the hidden links between energy and otherproblems could be a powerful catalyst for the formation of newpolitical coalitions.

What objectives should these new coalitions pursue? Twotasks seem central. The first is to set up natiOn5l goals and toredirect existing agencies to Vet them The second is tochannel resources to indiithials, community groups, corpora-tions, and local governments while assuring that renewableenergy is not unfairly excluded from the marketplace by theconventional fuel interests. Here national government's role isthat of midwife. Whether in reforesting South Korea's hillsidesor putting solar water heaters o4 Santa Monica's rooftops, localinitiati%e and national government supportt have most oftenproved the winning combination.

If national leaders set ambitious but realistic goals, theeffects can be far-reaching. Such goals serve as vital bench-marks against which various sectors' progress can be measured.They ,can pressure inert bureaucracies while imparting a clearsense of broaltii national purpose to the individuals, communi-ties, and companies that must make change happen. In thisrespect, small countries probably have in,iclvantage over largerones. Tliey can set goals with a clear, shared sense of what theywill actually mean. In large countries regional differences in-,trude and national goals often sound like mere abstractions.Thus, for some countries natiOnal plann(ng is most of what isneeded; in otbers it is only the beginning.

Few countries have yet established firm goals for using re-newable eneigy. In 1979 the United States established thl goal

' of obtaining 20 percent of its energy from renewable sourcesin the year 2.000an increase from the current,6 Percentbutby 1981 theReagan administration had abandoned the targetaltogether. Official neglect notwithstanding, this goal has be-tome an international benchmark and a measure that U.S.communities and states can_use to chart their.progress. Othercountries have set ambitious but obtainable goals for particular

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292 'Renewable Energy

renewable energy sourcesSweden in wood, Brazil in alcohol,and the Philippkies in wood, hydropower, and geothermal en-ergy.57

Achieving ambitious national goals requires^ more than es,tablishing an energy agency or ministry with one branch as-signed to conduct research and promote renewable energy.Amid bureaucratic wars over funding, publicity, and turf, di-verse renewable energy sources (which-have little in commonbeside their renewability)) get treated to a blanket approach orlost in the shuffle. Oddly, the agencies best positioned to pro-mote renewable energy are not energy agencies but, instead,those responsible for housing, agriculture, taxation, forestry,cominunity development, and transportation. Housing agen-

4cies are better able to stimulate sales and acceptance of passivesolar design and solar water heaters than are energy agencies

\ with no ties to the housing construction industry. Similarly,agricultural agencies have research centers and extension net-works of paramount importance in achieving biomass energygoals. Rather than consolidating all activities related to renew-a'bles within one agency, governments should form small high-jevel councils to coordinate, direct, and monitor progress. Or-ganizationally, then, the challenge is to redirect existing na-

, tiottal programs to new,goafs.Within this framework' governments should redirect re-

sources to local institutions and private fiims. This need forlocal institutions to help match local energy needs to localenergy.opportunities sets renewable energy apart from conven-tional energy technologies developed and regulated by nationalgovernments.

In in age -Ofcomplex far-Ein-fte-Chno ogical systems, ewcommunities think of themselves as having energy choicesFewer still have a clear idea of which renewable energy re-sources lie within their reach. Rooting out these misconcep-tions can be a powerful catalyst for change. The groundworkfor empowering 'citizens to decide their community's energy

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future consiits of a resource inventory andtpliblic discussion ofall alternative energy paths. A good model for "change fromwithin" is that of Franklin County in rural western Maisachu-setts.58 - n .

At first glance Franklin County does not ,appear to be apromising candidate for energy independence. With long se-

Kere winters and no local oil, gas, or coal, the area dependsheavily on oil imported from around the wo"rld. But, lookingcloser, a team from the Future Studies Program at the Univer-sity of Massachusetts found three foundation(for local self-sufficiency a building stock, so leaky that cost-effective wea(h-erization could cut energy use by 56 percent by the year z000,some 157 developed *id undeveloped hydroelectric sites thatcduld make Franklin County a net exporter of electricit5/, anda poorly managed forest resource base walk the potential tosupply enough wood to run the local transportation system onmethanol Supplemented by passive solar dAsign in new houses,eogeneration in industrial plants, and distria heat in the densertowns, these resources could permit Franklin County toi becompletely self-sufficient in energy by the year z000 F r froman economic drain, researchers found !Fat such a "s ar sce-nario" would substantially impeove the local economy y creat-ing jobs, strengthening the tax base, and eliminating the exportof funds for fuel. Spurred by the study's conclusions, a broadcoalition of citizens is today working to make use of thesepreviously hidden.energy.resources. Involving people in a frankassessment of their community'S energy future turned passivecOnsumers of iniPorted fuek into selfirelidnt energy activists.°

Local governments have a yarietj, of powerful tooli at theirdisposal Tlilintrol land use through zoning ancl buildingdesign throber teodes In addition, they own, franchise,regulate the collection and disposal of waste and the placem

ater pipes, power lines, and district heating systems. Beforearge-scale energy systems -became the norm, localities were

largely self-reliant in energy. Some could be again.0

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California, where 20 percent of all new housing in the U.S.is being built, now requires urban developers to take solarorientation into account in laying out streets and siting build-ings. By plarmin subdiVisions with an eye to tsolar access,communities m e the later use of solar collectors ealier. Build-

ing codes too n servo as powerful instruments: California'sTitle 24 building standards have, for example, helped reduceenergy use in new residences by 50 percent since 1975. Going

a step farther, San Diego County"requires all new buildings tofeature solar water heaters. The public supports these regula-tions because they are tailored to perceived needs.61

More often than not, municipal goyernments actually ownke heat- and ejectricity-producing resources: the waste stream,utility corridors, and unused land. Neighborhood by neighbor-hood, local governments or local cooperatives can build source,

'separation programs that open the door to sophisticated recy-cling projects like those undekay in West Germany. Or theycan follow northern European and 'Soviet cities, which haveplanned and built elaborate district-heating systems. In the"Ipdtan state of Gujarat, committed officials turned roadsideskid yards around government, buildings into a fuelwood re-source for the poor and a revenue source for the government.Dedicated to promoting renewable energy, such initiatives can

*/) turn neglected resourceinto the foundations of local energy

Market-responsive private films are alsoopktital actors insystems.62

bringing renewable energy intoxwidespread use. Like local gov-ernments, they can adaPt their activities to diverse, 'site-specificopportunities. With profitability uppermost in mirel, smallfirms vigorously seek innovative itechniques and cost-cuttingstrategies, and they Make sure things keep working after theribbon-cutting ceremonies. Whereas governments too oftenthrow good money after bad to escape political humiliation,businesspeople usually know how to cqt their losses and learnfrom their mistakes.

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- Institutions for the Transition . 295

The versatility of companies in taking advantage of profit-making op-portunities enables them to create links betweenowners of resources, developers of technology, and energy mersthat would be hard for governments to match. Among themost dynamic of such linking institutions are the small firmsthat have sprung up to produce and sell electricity to Americanutilities By bringing capital together with engineering know-how and regulatory acumen, these private companies catalyzemuch of the renewable energy activit4/ occurring in the U.S.electricity sector today.43

Remarkably fragile despite their immense enotivating fewer,marktt incentives can fail or backfire a) a. result of corporateor gaernment actions Typicalry, large corporations have ckcluded new iburces of energy from the marketplace. FOrdecades, the oil companies and the utilities have systematicallyused their power over distribution syst.pms--'in essence themarketplace for liquid fuep 'and electricityto 'keep out

416 ethanol, small dams, and cogeneration.' In 1977 mismanaged government aid deal a crippling blowto the nascent solar water heater intltry the U.S. WhenPresident Carter announced a tax credit with great fanfare,. -,consumer demand fell by almost one-half because would-bebtiyers waited for over a year for the goveffitnent aid to becomeavailable Within months many solar firms were forced intobankruplc3%,and the industry's evolution was delayed by a yearor two. Here the lesso4 is that while central governments areessential for setting goals, providyg information, subsidiingresearch, and 'solving equity and environmental problems eymust leave much of the "doing" to those who do bestcmunities, individuals, and corporations.64

Those .countries without either aa stvng tradition of local probler solving will, of conise, beat'a decided disadvantage in promoting the widespread use of.the-smaller-scale renewable energy technologies. Centralizedplanning and capital allocation cannot effectively substitute for

change system or

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market incentives and local initiative when harnessing diVerse,

site-specifikresources. In the Sdoviet *ion, for example, cen-tral planners have been successful in building la;ge dams andurban district-heating systems, but not at promoting industrial

energy conservation. ClearlY, bureaucratic conynands and re-wards are not enough. But where central planning is stipple-

mented by strong local government initiatives as it is in China,

chances for success are better.Empowering individuals and providing those institutions

nearest them with resources is a political challenge that will testthe instituto6al flexibility and responsiveness of most societies.

By actiq to solve their own energy needs andbanding together

to force governments to support their efforts, individuals canbreak the momentum of existing institutions. The obstructionsare many and powerful, but the first and most decisive step is

, an individual oneto recognize ourselves as the potential mas-

ters of our energy futures. Multiplied on a planetary scale, theself-empowered individual is the basic force for achieving arenAble energy future.

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. Shapes of aRenewable Society

. INAt...

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E ver since people contibived of harnessing the power of thesun, waters, winds, and earth, they have also speculated on theshape of a renewable society. With a deeper gasp of the energypotential of the earth's self-renewing processes and new plansto harness them, we now ask what the implications of an energytransition are for society as a whole. 'Today's economies andsocieties have been shaped as much by the availability qf inex-pensive oil as by aitk other force. But this dominance is nowslowly ending, and, whatever our future energy sources,

. changes are inevitable.To rely heavily on coal and niiclear power is to narrow

societies' future options. Environmental dapage would limit,_ .

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reas where people can live comfortably. The "securitystate'. mentality would become pervasive as societies sought toprotect thousands of central power plants from extremistgroups. The power of a small elite over energy technologieswould necessarily be strengthened, wrested away from ordinarypeople. Massive reliance on coal and nuclear power wouldmean that societies would increasingly have to sacrifice their

yther priorities to energy p1oduction.1Renewable energy, on the other hand, can preserve options

rather than close them. Harnessed by centralized or householdtechnologies, renewable energy could boost employment, bringnew life to declining rural areas, and enhance local and regionalself-reliance.

New Landscapes

"Buy land," advised the American humorist Will Rogers,"they're not making any more of it." Behind the visible con-straints of water, energy, and food, lies the more basic limit of

'1/4-4and.1Although there are still many empty deserts and uninhab-ited expanses of tundra, productive, livable land is already inshort supply. Greater use of renewable energy technology canactually help moderate rising conflicts over land use. Energyproduction can be combined with existing land uses or concen-trated on largely unused land. Indeed, intensifying land ,use toderive energy without obstructing other uses could give newprimacy to the la4ndscape arts and local planning.2

Because solar energris so diffuse that large areas of collectorswhether plants, wind turbines, or solar panelsare necessaryto capture significant quantities of energy, tomorrow's land-scape Will be far different from today's. Howeyer, the impor-

* tant question is not how much land a ,given energy systemtakes, but whether it uses land not otherwise useful or whetherit can piggyback without displacing existing uses. Some renew-able energy systems, most notably large fuel plantations that

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Shapes of a Renewable Society 299

compete with food or fiber crops for prime farmhand or hydro-poWer projects that flood rich river bottom land, crowd outother valuable land uses. For this reason they will never ap-proach their physical potentiaL But a greater number of renew-ab.le energy technologies will either make use of Marginal land_or intensify existing land use. ,

The ultimate in such dovetailing, of couise, is the use ofpassive dwellings thai essentially turn roofs, Windows, andstructural supports into heat collectors and regulators. Withthe building itself serving as a solar collector and solar waterheaters and photovoltaic systems built into the roofs of houses,no additional land is needed for energy. Contrary to the imageof "solir sprawl" stemming from the widespread use of solarcollectors, most electricity and heat requirements of urbanareas can be met using available roof space. Some idea of thispotential is provided by a University of California study ofseveral U.S. cities. Using detailed aerial photographs of Denverand Baltimore, the researchers found,that the cities as a wholecould come close to meeting their land requirements for energy'with surpluses from the warehouse district making up for defi-cits in the central business district.3

Fast-growing trees planted along roads, streams, betweenhouses, and under power lines will also collect solar energy.Besides providing energy on a cheap, maintenance-free basis,urban trees moderate temperatures, absorb noise, and clean theair. In a harbinger of this multi-purpose land use, Hagerstown,Maryland, is plantinitrees on 5oo acres of marginal land. Thetrees will be fertilized with sludge from the town's sewage-treatment plant and later gasffied to power the plant. In iuralareas, trees planted along field borders to supply fuel for farmmachinery will also provide wind breaks and moderate the localclimate.4

The landscape of a solar society would be more natural thantoday's landscapes. Citied, suburbs, and rural areas would beblanketed with a canopy of trees pleasing to the eye and sooth-

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ing to the spirit. buildings are likely to be more climate-sensi-tive and more integrated into thek surroundings. Landscapedesign will occupy a central place NI energy production andconsumption, and city dwellers will h ve the chance to reat-tune themselves to their natural surro dings. Overall, citieswill, have a gardenlike quality. Nature, 4n a ,Controlled andlimited fashion, will have reclaimed areas alluman habitationand activity.' .

This blurring of artifice and nature will alsextend to landstoday largely untouched by human hands. Solar ponds Can turnotherwise unused desert salt fiats or brine lakes into energycollectors. Taming rivers far film cities will prevent the flood-ing of farmland, though' the primordial quality of Many of theworld's pristine waterways could be forever lost. Large wind-mills in. mountain passeS or along coastal areas can iniTde onocean and mountain vistas, so much care id needed to keep theearth's wild plaCes wild. Harnessing the natural energies Of thelast wildernessesSiberia, the great salt deserts of the Ameri-can Southwest, the Amazon ,Basinmay make sense in thecalculus of material need but not in the deeper logic or the\

,human spirit. Our species' ancient dream of subjecting the w'\i dspaces to human control will, without care, become the nigh 7 \mare of a totally fabricated planet.6

Today's conflicts over the siting of oil, coal, or nuclear facili-ties in wild areas center around ecological and health 'threats,but controversies in ,the future could pit more benign renew-able energy systems against aesthetic or spiritual values. Ulti:mately, only pOpulation control, improved energy efficiency,

. and restrained material appetites can insure that energy com-'plexes do not literally cover the earth.

The intensification of land use to meet energy needs willslowly erase the line between energy production and otherendeavors. The "energy sector" may lose its definition as farm-ers, homeowners, waste recyclers, and city governments be-come part of the energy syst *thout devoting their full-

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Shapes of a Rene Wahle Society , 301

time attention to it. Energy use and production will begin tomerge with other activities. As individuals, communities, andcountries pursue their own, solutions, energy systems and en-ergy policies could become increasingly sterile abstractions,largely irrelevant to practical living. Energy may not be aneasily definable part of either the physical or the intellectuallandscape in societies reliant on renewable sources.

Renewable Jobs

Tod often neglecteclis the impact that different energy alterna-tives have 'on employment. A basic measure of economic andpsychological well-being, employment is an essential standardagainst which renewable 'energy's viability shouldhe measuredand toward which renewable energy development should bedirected. .

The substitution of energy and capital to perform tasks once.done with hu n hands has been a century-long trend that liashelped boost worldwide production of goods and servicesand freed mi1ions 'from drudgery. Today, however, rising en-ergI prices and rising unemployment call into question thesimple formula That worked so well in the past. Already, highenergyyrices have contributed to job losses irt the automobile,chemical, and steel industries. With 36 million people enteringthe global work, force each year, technologies must be judgedby their ability to create jobs as well as to supply energy.7

Studies conducted in the last several years show that devel-oping one energy source creates very different numbers andtypes of jobs than developing another. Each approach resultsnot only in direct jobssay, in drilling oil wellsonanufacturingwind machines, or installing insulationbut also in a certainnumber of indirect jobs in related industries and services.Moreover, sorne-energy sources create mainly unslcilled jobs,while others create ones that require specialized training. Somecreate jobs in urban communities, some in rural areas, and

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others in remote regions that become fast-fading boom towns.8Evidence gathered so far suggests that renewable energy

development will create mA jobs than would the ,sameamount of energy obtained froi-on il, natural gas, coal, or nu-clear power. The most detailed case study, conducted by theCouncil on Economic Priorities, cotnpared the job-creationpotential of a solar/conservation strategy and two profmsednuclear power plants on Long Island. Solar energy alone wasfound to create_ nine times as many lobs per unit of energyproduced as nuclear powert.and overall the alternative strategyyielded nearly three times as many jobs and two times as-muchusable energy as would the nuclear plants. Studies Sponsoredby the state government in California indicate that active solarsystems create more than twice as many jobs as either nuclearpower or liquified natural gas. And according to the U.S. Officeof Technology Assessment, deriving energy from forestry resi-thies is 1.5 to 3 times as labor-intensive as using- coal.9

The types of jobs created in renewable energy developmentrun the gamut. Such technologies as solar collectors, windgenerators, and wood gasifiers are likely to be manufactured oriassembly lines that will be partly aulomated but still requirenumerous semiskilled workers. Installing most of these decen-tralized devices will also create jobs, some of them quite similarto existing jobs in construction, plumbing, and the installation .

..of appliances. Renewable energy development also creates ademand lor a wide array of more technical jobs in such fields'as resource assessment, adVanced research, and systems engi-neering.

Perhaps the most laborlintensive of renewable energysources are the various forms of biomass. Fuelwood plantations,methanol plants, and biogas digesters all use less capital andmore labormost of it ralthan do conventional energysources. Polycultures of m ed food and energy crops will re-quire even more labor sinc they are less amenable to mechani-zation than are monocultures. The relatively small conversion

316,


facilities built to turn biomass energy sources into liquid andgaseous fuels will also offer new jobs. The widespread use ofmethanol in Canada, one study shows, wOuld create 50,000 to6o,000 permanent jobs, three times as many as a comparabletar sands development. For developing countries wood gather-ing and charcoal production are already major sources of em-ployment, and sustainable fuelwood projects will create manymore jobs.10

An intriguing aspect of the employment-creating potentialof "reuewables" is the flexibility they allow. Each energy sourcerequires a different amount of labor. Each can be developed inmore than one way. The variables are local priorities and re-source availability. Some industrial countries, Sweden and the-United States among them, are seeking to mechanize the har-vest of likely energy crops, while in the Philippines capitalshortages and surplus ineicpensive labor are bringing about arevival of traditional nianual axes and pruning hooks.n

Renewable energy alone catmot resolve the world's immenseemployMent problems. Yet it can take uS beyond the boom-and-bust cycles that have for too long characterized energydevelopment's impact on employment. Since renewable en-ergy must be continuously harvested, jobs in manufacturingtechnologies and repairing them and in gathering fuels andprocessing them will always be available.

Rebalancing City and Count?),

For most of this century and especially since World War II,the relationship between cities and the countryside has beenundergoing immense change. Throughout the world peoplehave been moving away from farming and into urban industrialand service jobs:Only 5 Percent of North Amerfeans are farm-ers, but they produce enough food for the other 95 percent ofthe, people, as well as grain exports for ioo other nations. Inthe developing countries the forces ,shaping the city-country

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304 Renewable Enagy

baiaace are grimmer, the freerdom of choice more constrained.Many people move to cities because rural areas cannot provideexpanding populations with an adeuquate living.12

Renewable energy Can begin to right the balance betweencities and the countryside by helping to revitalize rural areas,particularly in the developing countries, where the high cost ofconventional energy sources threatens to pauperize the major-ity. Small imounts of renewable energy could have a catalyticeffect, raising agricultural pIoductivity and stimulating the de-velopment of rural industriesgiving rural areas the self-sus-taining economic base they lack.

Biological sources of energy will probably be the most impor-tant in rejuvenating rural areas. But some social risk is involved.In Brazil and the United States alcohol fuels production hasdepended on large plantation-style farming, which can encour-age hither concentration of rich land among a few owners.Luckily, economics may succeed where land-tenure initiativeshave not, since integrated food/energy farming is ideal forsmaller farms. It reduces the need for fertilizers and Pesticides,and makes mechanization less_necessary to success.

By tapping renewable energy rural areas can develop a neWeconomic support system and provide an important "export"to cities, as well as stabilize coismodity markets and localeconomies. Agro-forestry systems may be particularly wide-spread, occupying marginal, now-underutilized land. Trees canbe`harvested for various uses besides energy or left standing ifprices, are depressed, thus reducing the small firmer's vulnera-bility to sudden changes in commodity prices. Forage and

, food-producing trees can also provide steady income.The widespread use of renewable energy could, some say,

lead to the dispersal of large, dense cities. ;Researchers at theInstitute for. Environmental Studies 'at the University of Wis-consin believe that switching to renewable energy will lowerpopulation densities, giving rise to commtinities of 35,000 orso surrounded by intensively cultivated bands of farm and

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Shalies of a Renewable Society 305

forest lands. Another possibility is that large cities will undeigoa renaissance, becoming more livable as competition for scarceresources stops escalating.13

The visionary architect Paulo Solari has sketched one newkind of city that is much denser than those of today. Mosttransportation would consist of walking, and heating and cool-ing needs would be met mainly by improved design. Solarienvisions "green areas" around these cities, which would pro-vide recreational opportunities for the residents as well as ameans of growing food and hainessing energy. `Like all suchvisions, Solari's is not likely to appeal to all people. Some wouldargue that cities should be less centralized and that 'homesshould be privately owned and more architecturally diversethan Solari would allow. Yet Solari's ideas do confirm the needfor a new and innovative balance between cities and tile coun-tryside.14

Besides their obvious commercial and cultural attractions,large cities have an enormous potential for energy efficiency.

, Even today, New York City uses half as much energy on a percapita basis as the United States as a whole, largely because itshigh density means that less energy is needed for heating,cooling, and transportation. All cities have opportunities tofurther improve energy efficiency, and these improvements canbe supplemented by using renewable energy sparingly in theform of solar water heaters, passive solar design, and heatingsystems using municipal waste.15

Rising Self-Reliance

As renewable energy becomes more important in the worldenergy budget, patterns of international energy trade will shift,with far-reaching consequences for the global economy and thesecurity of nations. No form of renewable energy (or, for thatmatter, nonpetroleum fossil fuel) is likely to ever replace petro-leum as the driving force in global trade patterns. As the world

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306 Renewable Energy .10

shifts to renewable energy, this_global energy trade will begradually replaced by regional self-sufficiency and local self-reliance. .For the next several decades, the most importantenergy supply opportunities will be within nations or betweenneighboring countries rather than between distant tradingpartners.

The years since World War II have seen an unprecedentedgrowth in long-dilance international trade. The engine of thisglobalization of economic exchange has been oil. Between195o and 1980 oil's share of total international trade balloonedfrom 1.5 to 19 percent. In 1980 the value of oil traded on theinternational market was twice the value of the second largestgood, food. Even more sobering, one oil-importing countryafter another was forced during the 1970s to reshapeandoften distortits economy to produee for export. This chainreaction teaches deep into economies. America plows up mar-ginal fafmland to produce exportable food, Japan strivei to sellhigh quality industrial goods; Tanzania plants fields with to-bacco rather than with food crops.16

There are no Saudi Arabias of renewable energy. Most every'place on earth has an abundance of either strong wind, intensesunlight, rich plant growth, heavy rainfall, or geothermal heat.Moreover, neither these energy sources nor the electricity orgas that will be generated from them can be cheaply carriedacross the oceans. While laying electric transmission cablesunder bodies of water the size of the English Channel or LakeErie is feasible and could become more so as nations exploitregional energy trade opportunities, transmission of electricityunder the oceans or for distances over 1,000 miles is unlikelyboth because of power losses and high costs. Building gaspipelines under large bodies of water is not feasible, and liquifi-cation and regasification is prohibitively expensive and danger-ous..

Localities will be much more energy self-reliant in a worldwhere renewable energy is dominant. David Morris of the

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Shapes of .1 Renewable Society- 307

Institute for Local Self-Reliance observes that today "a dollarspent on energy is the worst expenditure in terms of its impacton the local economy-85 cents on a dollar leaves the econ-omy." However, with renewable energy much of the moneynow leaving one nation for the purchase of fuel from anotheryrill be spent on locally gathered supplies. Heat for buildingsin North America will come from the rooftops, not from theMiddle East. Villagers in India will light their houses withelectricity generated using the tesolirces of the local environ-ment instead of with kerosene from 1ndonesia's outer conti-nental shelf. As the distance between users and suppliers ofmost energy supplies shrinks, self-reliant communities will beever less subject to sudden price hikes, supply interruptions, orsabotage. Energy production will thus reinforce rather thanundermine local economies and local autonomy.17

As energy becomes harder and harder to distinguish fromreal property such as farmland, buildings, or waste treatmentplants, political attempts to redistribute it will not be as feasibleas they are in a world where oil is almost as convertible to othergoods as money itself. Taxation of energy flows by centralgovernments will be more difficult as an increasing share ofenergy used never enters the marketplace or is provided inorms not readily comparable to energy used in other -com-munities. And such attempts' as the New International Eco-nomic Order to redistribute international wealth by redis-tributing resources will find energy less and less transferable.

Countries filled with communities_that use small-scale dis-.persed energy technologies will be much less militarily vulnera-ble. As a recent U.S. government studY points out, Japanreliant on small hydro plants for 87 percent of its electricityemerged from the boinbing attacks vof World War II withalmost all its power-producing capacity intact. On the otherhand, Germany's ability to wage war _collapsed when alliedbornbeis.destroyed the relative handful of large coal and syn-thetic fuel plants that powered German industry. In an era

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when the threat of terrorist destruction is growing, countriesheavily reliant on networks of small dams, wind turbines, andalcohol stills will be coniiderably more secure than those withlarge central power plants. Large dams, however, are societaljugular veins in wartime,inviting targets virtually, impossibleto protect from modem bomber or missile attacks.18

Localities may achieve increased self-reliance, but only largerregions will approach self-sufficiency. Energy in the form ofmethane, methanol, or electricity will be exchanged withinregions to supplement locally harne-ssed energy. Regional trademay gradually supplant global trade. Thus, Germany will relyupon imported Danish wind power rather than on Persian Gulfoil, NeW England on hydropower from Quebec rather than onoil from Venezuela, and India on electricity from Nepal ratherthaNn oil from Indonesia. This regional trade in energy will,of cciurse, more readily register on the international trade ledg-ers in areas with many small nations than it will in inulti-regional countries like Brazil, China,--or the United Sthtes.

The replacement of global by regional interdependency willbe powerfully reinforced by basinride river development pro-jects. The large dams rising on the Parani, for example, will

,

forge strong links between the economies of Paraguay, Brazil,and Argentina. By allowing navigation far upriver and provid-ing power for new industries, the dams will draw these econo-mies closer in the same way the St. Lawrence River projectsdid Canada and the United States. Economies in both South-east Asia and the Indian sidicontinent will become intertwinedas the Mekong, and the Ganges are harnessed. The need for all-riations sha4ng a river basin to protect dams from sedimenta-tion will give new impetus to regional reforestation and crop-land protection. River valley inhabitants will take keen interestin the well-being and land-use practices of their highlandneighbors. The easing of poverty in the uplands will be an actof regional self-interest rather tharAof global charity.19

.The rise of regional interdependence will make peaceful

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accommodation between neighboring countries more impor-tant than ever. ,Where deep cultural, religious, or politicalclew, ages exist between .regional neighbors, resources may re-main urtveloped or rivalries may intensify as nations strugglefor control over common resources. Increased reliance oh latgedams will affect regional politics by creating "mutual hostage"relations among neighboring countrie's. Yet large-scale hydro-electric development can bind together former enemies if their_leaders cooperate to reach common goals. BraziPand Argentinaovercame a tradition of hostility and suspicion to develop therich energy resources of the Parani River, which forms theboundary between the two countries. War between theseneighbors would now be far more costly than before since amajor Oart of the national wealth of each depends upon thecontinued operation of these expensive dams.

Shifting Power

Writing over a century ago, an early solar pioneer, John Erics-son, prophesied. "The time will come when Europe must stopher mills for want of coal. Upper Egypt, then, with her neverceasing sun power, will invite the European manufacturers toerect his [sic) mills . . . along the sides of the Nile." WhileEricsson's vision has not materialized, the use of renewableenergy has already shaped the location of industry and therelative power of nations. These patterns are most visible forthe renewable source of energy thus far harnessed most exten-sivelyhydropower.20

Throughout history, the avairability of hydropower resourceshas been a key to the location of industry and cities and the

of, relative power of nations. When waterwheels were the domi-nant hydropower technology, factories were small and dis-persed throughout the countryside. Water's influence on urbanlocation can best be seen in the eastern United States: Dozensof cities, from Springfield, Massachusetts, to Augusta, Georgia,

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cluster on the fall line where rivers drop from the AppalachianPiedmont to the coastal plain. Historians rank northernEurope's abundant hydropower resources .as an important rea-son for the eclipse, of the drier Mediterranean countries overthe last few centuries.21

The explosive rise to influence and wealth of the petroleum-producing nations dominated world politics in the seventies.Within countries shifts of power have been just as dramatic7,Australia, Canada, the Soviet Onion, and the United Stateshave all seen people and power move to their fossil fuelpro-ducing regions. Yet these changes have drawn attentibn awayfrom a slowerbut more permanentrealignment of powerand wealth to regions rich in water power. Just as factories andtowns clustered around the mill sites of ioo years ago, so; too,new industries will locate near new dams in sparsely popUlatedregions.

Quebec provides the most dramatic contemporary exampleof a region's rise to prominence clue to-its water refources.Launched ten years ago, La Grande Complex in northernQuebec will soon produce 11,400 megawatts, enough power todouble the province's installed electrical capacity. Further ad-ditions on other rivers could bring the total to 27,500 mega-watts. Using cheap power shipped south on giant 735-kilovolttransmission lines, QUebec hopes to revitalize its economy byattracting new industries. Electrification of oil-using industriesand exports of power to the United States will reduce the area'sdependence on costly imported oil and provide a permanentsource of foreign exchange. In a pattern of dependence certainto grow, New York City by 1984 will receive 12 percent of itspoWer from Quebec. This ambitious hydro program will givethe French-speaking province new prominence within Canadaand new leverage in its battle for greater autonomy and culturalindependence.22

The development of hydropower in remote areas of theworld will also have repercussions, on the international eco-

3 2 4


nomic system as important energy-intensiveidustries relocatenear water resources. The most dramatic shift is occurring inthe aluminum industry. Aluminum smelting requires prodi-gious amounts of electrical energy. In regions where hydro-power is plentiful, aluminum smelters, which cluster aroundmajor dams on every continent, are often the major users ofelectricity.23

In the y.ears ahead aluminum production will level off oreven decline in Japan, the Fontinental United States, andWestern Europe as new aluminum smelters migrate to theworld's peripheral regions, where major new hydroelectriccomplexes offer plentiful and cheap power. Aluminum compa-nies are building major new plants in Brazil, Egypt, Sumatra,and Tanzania to take advantage of newly tapped hydro sources.Similarly, power shifts to the periphery can be seen withinnations: Soviet aluminum production is moving deeper into

_ .Siberia, following new dams.24

The world', s growing appetite for aluminum combined withthe migration of smelters spells increased dependence betweennations, and it could seriously affect many countries' balance

, of payments. New aluminum smelting sites could have a greatimpact on global employment if labor-intensive aluminumprocessing and finishing industries follow the produders of rawaluminum to major new dams. Just as nItions that produce andexport oil have sought to attract petrochemical and refineryactivity, so too will primary aluminum producers try to enticerelated industries to the area. Already Venezuela, taking a cuefrom its success in attracting "downstream" Oil industries, isseeking to force aluminum producers using its cheap hydro-power to locate their highly profitable aluminuin-processingand -fabricating facilities on Venezuelan soil. Should otherhydro-rich nations follow suit, industrial nations could sufferjob losses. These could be offset, however, by gains in countriesthat vigorously pursue recycling, which tends to be Much morelabor-intensive than either aluminuM smelting or processing.25

*

325


Large wind machines,ocean thermal energy plants, and solarponds could have similar effects on the balance of industrialand political power. Those remote regions of the world wherestrong winds blow or where the sun shines intensely may oneday attract energy-intensive industry. The steady gale forcewinds howling off the Antarctic ice shelf are a far denserconcentration of energy than the most sun-drenched equatorialdesert. One day they may be a valuable enough lode of energyto lure humans to adapt .to that forbidding climate. The salt-rich deserts of the world are also an early candidate for coloni-zation by human energy systems.

It is, however, doubtful that large population centers willgrow up alongside such large-scale energy development. Ex-tremes of climate, lack of water, and forbidding transportationdistances all stand idthe way. More likely such areas will exportenergy in the form of electricity, ammonia, hydrogen, orsmelted metals. Those nations containing such energy rich butinhospitable provinces will reap the benefits. The wastes ofcentral Australia, southwest North America, and the vast des-ert stretching from Morocco to the Great Wall of China willchange from blank spaces on the map to economic assets.Deserts that long served as buffer iönes between nations maybecome objects of rivalry between them, adding a new dimen-sion to international politics. Those energy resources that be-long to no countrythe winds of Antarctica or the thermalgradients of the ocean, or instancecould become subject toprotracted Law of t Seatype negotiations.

New Equalities

Societies relying on renewable energy will have more balancebetween the rich and the poor, between nations, and be-tween generations. The adequacy of energy supplies is deter-mined not by the absolute amounts available, but by how theyare distributed and whether individuals can afford the energy

326

z


they need, Ours is a world of Ira Ves and have nots. Limousineowners in London have all the gasoline they need even during"shortages," while inadequate fuelwood or kerosene is a grimeveryday reality in the mountain 'villages of Peru. Similarly,heating costs are hardly significant to apartment dwellers inManhattan, while in the nearby South Bronx huddling aroundopen ovens is the only way of keeping wIrm in the winter.26

As the equity question underscores, the major frontier todayin most renewable energy technologies is mass production,which lowers the costs of solar collectors, biogas digesters, windpumps, and even passive solar homes, bringing them withinreach of low-income groups. If the initial cOital costs arereduced and some subsidies are provided for the poorest, 're-newable energy could help narrow the gap in living standards.And once installed, renewable energy technologies are immunefrom fuel-price inflation, affording low-income people someprotection from economic shocks and supply disruptions.

One successful example of renewable energy being har-nessed by low income people is in the large but isolated SanLuis Valley in Colorado. There several communities with atotal population of 40,000half of them with incomes belowthe poverty linehave 'mobilized to solve their energy prob-lems. Since the late seventies 15 percent of the Valley's homeshave been "solarized," and solar collectors, greenhouses, andcrop dryers are now a common sight. Many of the systems arehome-built at less than half the cost of comparable commercialequipment. Residents of the San Luis Valley are still not aswealthy as those in the Denver suburbs, but many of theirenergy needs are now met at an affordable price.2?

Renewable energy can also help narrow the_ enormousinequalities between rich and poor nations. While some coun-tries obviously have mcire abundant 'renewable energy sourcesthan others, the gap between the best and least well endowedis not great compared to the inequalities of fossil fuel owner-ship. Indeed, some of the richest lodes of renewable energy are

327


found in some of the poorest countries. For the more than fifty

4eve1oping countries that are plagued both by extreme povertyand a complete lack of fossil fuels, renewable energy could

represent the energy base needed to create wealth. GentralAmerica, for example, currently suffers from widespread pov-erty and staggering oil bills, but could fuel substantial eco-nomic growth by tapping abundant hydropower, geothermal,

and biomass resources.In energy terms all nations are "developing.". To be sure

some countries have advantages over others, but all the world'scountries face a common need for a fundamental transition tonew energy sources. .Although lack of capital and scientificinfrastructure will impede renewable energy development inthe poorest countries, their lack of previous investment in largefossil fuel and nuclear systems could be an asset. Third Worldnations could enjoy some of the asivantages that West Ger-

many and Japan had after World War II since they wilhnotbe burdened with outmoded equipment. It could, forexample,

be easier for the Philippines to build cities and iridustries

around geothermal sites than for France or Japan to rebuild its

economy around new energy sources.28After decades of developing greater dependency by impOrt-

ing technologies from the North, some countries of the Sqiith

are-t-haltingly and in diverse waysbeginning to devise:pat-terns of energy development appropriate to their own resoiecesand circumstances, Using wood charcoal for steel-makhig, hy-

dropOwer for cities and industries, and alcohol for automobiles,Brazil is building a modern industrial society that relies heavily

on renewable energysomething no major country in theNorth is near achieving. Israel has reached the frontier in solar

pond development and the Philippines in geothermal develop,fnent, putting the industrial nations in the "less developed,"learning situation. Serious obstacles notwithstanding, thesecountries and China are probably as far along in building a

328


modern economy based on renewable resources as any industri-alized nation.

Renewable energy can restore some balance between genera-tions as well. PerhapS a quarter of all the petroleum that willever be used on earth has been burned since World War II,and the rest is dwindling rapidly. In one generation a trove ofenergy accumulated in the earth over eons has been consumed,depriving future generations of their birthright. Fossil fuelsand particularly oil and gascan continue to play a unique rolein petrochemical production and some forms of transportatio`nfor a long time, and ours is the responsibility to ensure thatmany of our descendants have at least small amounts available.The more rapidly renewable energy is 41eveloped, the morelikely that legacy. With nuclear power, however, the presentgeneration goes beyond depletion, burdening the earth's in-heritors with highly toxie wastes' that will last millennia.

In contrast, the self-renewing energies of the sun and theearth can be harnessed by the living without diminishing thesupply of energy availaWe for the\ unborn. Properly executedrenewable energy development bequeaths no legaCy of environ-mental destruction and instead creates wealth for future gener-ations. Some renewable energy technologies, like solar collec-tors, small wind machines, or wood stoves rest so lightly on theearth that the future may see no sign of their use. Other, moreenduring changes, like dam building or forest planting, areassets bequeathed to the future by an Otherwise profligated'eneration. We find it easy to forget that the early northernEuropeans ran their factories with Waterwheels that south-ern Floridians heated their 'water using sunlig in the 1930sbecause the physical evidencerotted or r cycledis gone..,from sight. But who will be able to ever forget that Chicago,Seoul, or Moscow relied on nuclear power for a brief momentin history?

Renewable energy development is surely the most conserva-

32 9


tive yet innovative energy course to follow. At our presentcrossroads we cannot maintain what we cherish -unless wechange the energy systems on which we rely. Only with rebew-able energy 'can 'our children enjoy at a reasonable 6ost thebenefits we'have enjoyed. Only with renewable energy develop-ment can we raise the living standards of most of. the greatmajority. The power needed to make these choices is at hand.

Notes

,

,

Chdpter 1. Introduction: The Power to Chooie

1. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Energy in a FiniteWorld, (Laxenburg, -Austria: 1981).

2, A good critique of the HASA study is Florentin Krause, IIASA's Fan-tasy Forecast," Soft Energy Notes, October/November 1981.

3. Amory B. Lovins, Soft Energy Paths: Toward a Durable Peace (Cam-bridge, MaSS.: Ballinger, 1977).

4. This figure is based on the planet receiving sunlight gt 2 rate of 1.38kilowatts per square meter,,which comes to approximately 1.55 x io15meAvatt hours of energy for the entire planet each year (or 5.6 millionexaioules). However, about 35 percent of this sunlight is reflected back

.- into space, leaving 3.7 million exajoules of sunlight that are absorbed bythe atmosphere, the oceans, the earth's surface and living plants. Totil

3 31

318 Notes (pages 3-1.2)

human energy use, inclucling noncommercial energy, comes to only,about 350 exajouIes. The sunlight calculations 2re included in Jack Eddy,A New Sun: &kir Results from Skylab (Washington, D.C.: NationalAeronautics and Space Administration, 1979), 2nd Vincent E. McKel-vey, "Solar Energy in Earth Processes," Technology Revieiv, March/April 1975.

5. A centralized, desert-baSed solar power system for the. U.S. MS 2C1-vocated in Aden Baker Meinel and Marjorie Pettit Meinel, Power forthe People (Tucson, Ariz.. privately published, 1970), 29d received con-siderable government attention. The "soft path" was originally de-sctibed in Amory B. Lovins, Soft Energy Paths.

Chapter i. Energy at the Crossroads

i. These numbers are developed, more fully later in the chapter..2. World historical figures ari Worldwatch Institute estimates based on

United Nations (U.N.) Department of International Economic andSocial Affairs, World Energy Supplies, 1 950-74 (New York 1976), andU.N. Department a International Economic and Social Affairs, World

. Energy Suffplies, 1 973-1978 (New ?a 1979). The 1980 figure is based. on British Petroleum Company, BP Statistical Review of World Energy

1981 (London. 1982). Non-energy uses of oil 2nd gas (accounting forabout 7 percent of the total) 2re included here. Japan used 241 millionbarrels of oil in 1960 and 1,850 million barrels in 1973 according to U.S.Department of Energy, 1980 Annual Report to Congress (Washington,D.C.. U.S. Government Printing Office, 1981): Virtually all of the OilMS imported.

3. Estimate based on U.S. Department of Energy, 1980 International En-ergy Annual (Washington, D.C. i981). These numbers are developedmore fully in Chapter 11.

4. Estimate based on United Nations, World Energy SuPplies, and BritishPetroleum ComPany, BP Statistical Review of World Energy 1981.

5. World Bank, Energy in the Peveloping Countries (Washington, D.C.:1980). Most energy statistics published include only commercial energy,thereby excluding the fuelwood and biomass that aresaimPortant in theThird World, providing over half the energy used in many Africancountries, for, example. The energy trends of developing countries arealso discussed in Thomas Hoffman and 'Brian Johnson, The WorldEnergy Triangle: A Sirategy for Cooperation (New York: Ballinger,1981), and Joy Dunkerley and William Ramsey, "Energy and the Oil-Importing Developing Countries," Science, May 7, 1982.

332..

Notes (pages 13-16) 319

6. Latest economic statistics are from Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, OECD Economic Outlook (Paris. July1982), and Lawrence R. Klein, "World Economic Outlook The Indus-trial Nations," Business Week, August 9, 1982.

7 International Energy Agency, A Croup Strategy for Energy Research,Development and Demonstration (Paris. Organisation for EconomicCo-operation and Development, 1980).

8. Alan Riding, "Costa RIC2 Finding the Fiesta is Over," New York Times,December 8, 1981. The cost of oil imports are from the World Bank,World Development Report 1981 (New York. Oxford University Press,1981).

9. Forest trends are from Adrian Summer, "Attempt at an Assessment of theWorld's Tropical Forests," //nosy lva, Vol. 28, Nos. 112/113, 1976, andWorld Bank, 'Forestry. Sector Policy Paper (Washington, D.C. 1978).

ro. Oil analyst quoted is Sherman Clark in George Getschow, "More or LessOil Will Gp..Up or Down or Maybe It Won't," Wall Street Journal,May 5, 1482.

1 I. Proven oil reserve figure is from the American Petroleuin Institute, BasicPetroleum Data Book (Washington, D.C.. 1982). Future discoveryfigure is an estimate from Richard Nehring, "The Outlook for WorldOil Resources," Oil and Cas Journal, October 27, 1980. One of themost detailed oil forecasts made in the late seventies was the Gulf OilCompany's "World Petroleum Outlook 1978-2coo," unpuhlished,1978. It projects rapid oil price increases by the late eighties and a peakin world oil production in the early nineties.

12. Oil use trends from U.S. Department of Energy, Monthly Energy Re-view, various issues. Developing country trends are from World Bank,Energy in the Developing Countries.

13. U.S. figure is from American Petroleum Institute, Basic petroleum DataBook. Declining petiokum yield in the United States is described inU.S. Congress, Office of Technology Assessment, World PetroleumAvailability 1980-2000 (Washington, D.C.. 1980), and David H. Rootand Lawrence J. Drew, "The Pattern of Petroleum Discovery Rates,"American Scientist, November/December 1979.

14. Recent assessments of world oil prospects include U S. Congress, Office, of Technology Assessment, World Petroleum Availability, Richard

Nehring, "The Outlook for World Oil Resources," 2nd Exxon Corpora-tion, World Energy Outlook (New York: December 108o).

15. Oil reserve statistics are from Larry Auldridge, "World Oil Flow Slumps,Reserves Up," Oil and Cas Journal, Worldwide Issue, December 29,1980.

333

I320 Notes (pages 17-21)

16. Estimate based on U.S. Department of Energy, 1980 International En-ergy Annual.

17. Natural gas prices are discussed in "A Change in Philosophy in NaturalGIS Pricing," World Business Weekly, February 11, 198o, Steve Muf-son, "As Controls are Eased, Industrial Users Brace for Rises in GISPrices," Wall Street Journal, February 11, 1982, and "Natural Gas,"Financial Times Energy Economist, January 1982. ......_

18. The prospects for gas from uconventional sources are discussed in J.Glenn Seay, "Gas Power: Its Promises iSt Problems," a research paperprepared by the Center for Industrial and Institutional Development,

. University of New Hampshire, February leo.19. Global gas reserve figures are from American Petroleum Institute, Basic

Petroleum Data Bookzo. The dangers and costs of transporting large quantities of liquefied natu-

ral gas are discussed in Let Niedringhaus Davis, "Gambling on 'FrozenFire'," New Scientist, January ro, 1980. GIS export trends ate discussedin International Energy Agency, Natural Cas: Prospects to 2000 (Paris.1982). .r

21. Authors' estimate based on U.S. Department of Energy, 1980 Interna-tional Energy Annual. .

22. Reserve figures are from the World Coal Study, CoalBridge to theFuture (Cambridge, Mass.. Ballinger,198o). Use figures are estimatesbased cm O.S. Department of Energy, 1980 Inthrnational Energy An-nual. .

23. The World Coal Study, CoalBridge to the Future.24. Ibid.25. International coal mining accident statistics that exclude China and the

Soviet Union are found in International Labor Organization, Yearbookof Labor Statistics 1980 (Washington, D.C.: 1981). The worldwide,estimates used in this book are from Curtis Seltzer, Institute for PolicyStudies, private communication, September 21, 1982. Soviet coal min-ing accidents are discussed in U.S. Congress,. Office of TechnologyAssessment, Technology and Soviet Energy Avaaability (Washington,D.C.. 1981). Chinese accidents are discussed in Vaclav Smil, China'sEnergy (New York. Praeger Publishers, 1976). Detailed U.S. figures arefound in U.S. Department of Commerce Mine Safety and Health Ad-ministration, Mine Injuries anti Work Time (Washington, D.C.: 1981).

26. Coal pollution fatality statistics are at best imprecise since often pollu-tion interacts with other factors or exacerbates other health problems incausing death. It strikes hardest at the very young and the elderly. TheOhio Vpplley statistics are from U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,.

334.

-


Ohio River Basin Energy Study (Washington, D.C. U S. GovernmentPnnting Office, 1980) Third World statistics are particularly difficult tofind, so the figure of a half million deaths worldwide is an order ofmagnitude estimate by Curtis Seltzer, Institute for Policy Studies, pri-vate communication, September 21, _1982. The health effects of Coalburning in China are described in Vaclav Smil, China's Environment(New York. Praeger Publishers, 1982)

27.1iA detailed study of the effects of acid rain is Ross Howard and MichaelPerley, Acid Rain (New York: McGraw-Hill, Inc., 1982).

28. Good overviews of the carbon dioxide problem include W S. Broeckeret al., "Fate of Fossil Fuel Carbon Dioxide 2nd the Global CarbonBudget," Science, October 26, 1979, Council on Environmental Qual-ity, Global Energy Futures and the Carbon Dioxide Problem (Washing-ton, D.0 U.S. Government Printing Office, January 1981), 2nd Wil-liam W. Kellogg and Robert Schware, "Society, Science, and ClimateChange," Foreign Affairs, Summer 1982.

29. The World Coal Study, CoatBridge to the Future.3o. The prospects for synthetic fuels 2re dacussed in E.J. Hoffman, Synfuels.

The Problems and the Promise (Laramie, Wyo.. The Energon Co.,1982), and William Houseman, "Synfuels. No Barrel of Fun," Audu-bon, September 1980.

31. The,early "bandwagon market" for nuclear reactors Is descnbed in IrvinC. Bupp 2nd Jean-Claude Derian, The Failed Promise of Nuclear Power.The Story of Light Water (New Yoric IIasic Books) 1978).

32. "Nuclear Power. World Status," Financial Times Energy Economist,November 1981.

33. The nuclear waste problem is discussed in Todd R. LaPorte, 'NuclearWaste. Increasing Scale and Sociopolitical Impacts," Science, July 7,1978, U.S. Congress, Office of Technology Assessment, Managing Com-mercial High-Level Radioactive Waste (Washington, D.C.. 1982), Ron-

, nie D. Lipschutz, Radioactive Waste. Politics, Tichnology and Risk(Cambridge, Mass.. Ballinger, 1980), and Fred C. Shapiro, Radwaste:A Reporter's Investigation of a Growing Nuclear Menace (New York.Random House, 1981).

34. The pr4iferation of nuclear materials and weapqns and efforts to slowit are ascribed in U.S. Congress, Office of Technology Assessment,Nuclear Proliferation and Safeguards (Washington, D.C.. Piaeger Pub-lishFrs, 1977), Albert Wohlstetter, Moving Towards Life in a NuclearArmed Crowd? (Chicago. University of Chicago Press, 1979), Joseph AYager, ed., Nonproliferation and U.S. Foreign Policy (Washington,D.C.. The Brookings Institution, 1980). The efforts of the Interno-

335

_

322 Notes (pages 26-30)

tional Atomic Energy Agency 2re discussed in Judith Miller, "TryingHarder to Block the Bomb," New York Times Magazine, September 12,1982:

35. Irvin C. Bupp, 'The Nuclear Stalemate," in Energy Future: Report ofthe Energy Project of the Harvard Business School (New York: RandomHouse, 1979).

36. Charles Komanoff, Power Plant Cost Escalation: Nuclear and CoalCapital Costs, Regulation.and Economics (New York: Komanoff En-ergy Associates, x98x). Similar conclusions have been reached about thecost of British nuclear plants in J.W. Jeffrey, "The Real Cost of NuclearElectricity in the UK," Energy Policy, June 1982.

37. "France: Nuclear Over-Capacity Even Before x985," European EnergyReport, January 7, 1980.

38. U.S. plant orders and cancellations are from Mary Ellen Warren,Atomic Industrial Foium, private communication, August 5, 1982. Pro-jections are authors' estimates based on plants that are now in theplanning and construction phases.

39. The nuclear power situation in ratiOlIS European countries is describedin Peter Bunyard, "Nuclear PowerThe Grand Illusion," The Eco16-gist, April/May 1980, "The Nuclear Option that Won't Go Awag,"World Business Weekly, February 2, 1981, "Sweden Proposes PhasingOut Its Nuclear Power Plants," World Business Weekly, April 27, 1981;

. and "France: A Commitment to Nuclear Power," World BusinessWeekly, January 12, 1981.

40. P: Feuz, ."Nuclear Power in Eastern Europe: Part I," Energy in Coun-. tries with Centrally Planned Economies, Maich 1980; Jim Harding,

"Soviet Nuclear Setbacks," Society, July/A gust 1981.41. "Nuclear Power: World Status,"Firiancial Thns Energy Economist,

Jane House, 'The Third World Goes Nuclear," auth, DecepOer 1980.42. The 1981 figures are from "Nuclear Power: World Status," 'Financial.

Times Energy Economist. fhe ig4iocr.and 2000 iStimateS are the authors'-and aiiuine thakmO'st ,of the nuclear power plants now planned andwider construction will be completed, tout that no additional ones will.

7 be started. It is more likely that:the aefilal figures will be lower ratherthan higher, than these.

43. The econOmic feasibility of breeder reactors' is discussed in U.S. Con:gress, General Accounting Office, The Liquid Metal Fast Breedei ReaoforOlitions for Deciding Puture. Pace and' Direction (Washington,

.D.C.. 1982), and "Cheap Uranium Dampens Bree;der Interest,"_Energy. .:Economist becember 1981. The proliferation dangers posecthylireeilerreactors are discussed in Amoryk Lovins and L: Hunter Lovins, Brittle .

.336


Power Energy Strategy for National Security (Andover, Mass...BrickHouse, 1982).

44. John P Holdren, "Fusion Energy in Contexi Its Fitness for the LongTerm," Science, April 4, 1978; John F. Clarke, "The Next Step inFusion What It Is 2nd How It Is Being Taken," Science, November28, 1980.

45 The 19 percent efficiency improvement estimate is based on a 19 per-cent increase in gross national product during the period 2nd no growthin energy use as shown in British Petroleum Company, BP StatisticalReview'of World Energy 1981. Oil use figures come from the samesource.

46 Nairobi hotel example from Lee Schipper, Lawrence Berkeley Labora-tory, private communicatIon, January 5, 1982, Japanese appliance effici-encies from "Progress and Tradition in Energy Conservation," Chikyuno Koe (published by Friends of the Earth, Japan), November 1981,U S. air travel efficiency data from Eric Hirst et al., "Energy Use from1973 to 1980: The Role of Improved Energy Efficiency," Oak RidgeNational Laboratory, December 1981. . .

47 Solar Energy Research Institute, A New Prosperity. Building a Renew-able Future (Andover, MOS.: Brick House, 1981).

48 ''EUergy Conservation'. Spawning a Billion-Dollar a Year Business,"Business Week, April 6, 1981.

49. Amory B. Lovins, Soft E'nergy Paths. Toward a Durable Peace (Cam-bridge, MOS.: Ballinger, 1977). .-

5o. World Bank, Energy in the Developing Countries.

Chapter 3. Building with the Sun

1 The 75 to 90 percent figure is a rough estimate based on informationsupplied by nuinerous architects are builders. In 211 but the most seyereclimates it is possible virtually to eliminate the need for supplementalheating 2nd cooling. .

i. Architect quoted is Belinda Reeder in a presentation to the U.S. Depart-ment of Energy, Passive 2nd Hybrid Solar Energy Program UpdateMeeting, Washington, D.0 , September 21-24, 198o (referred to infollowing notes 2S DOE Passive Solar Update Meeting). The 6o,000passive solar houses figure is 2n estimate by the U.S. PassiveSolarIndustries Council. See note 32 for details.

3. Socrates quote from Ken Butti afil John Perlin, A Golden Thread. sbooYears of Solar Architecture and Technology (New York. Van NostrandReinhold Co., 1980).

..,

337s


4. The historical material in this section draws heavily on Butti and Perlin,,A Golden Thread, Amos Rapaport, House Form and Culture (Engle-wood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall, 1969), and Victor Olgyay, Design withClimate: A Bioclimatic Approach to Architectural. Regionalism, (Prince-ton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1963).

5. Information on China was provided by Sarah Balcomb after a trip there,private coMmunication, December 3, 1980. Spanish galerias ate de-scnbed in Ricardo Pifion and Fernando Bores,,"Las Casas de Galeria,"Sunworld, Vol...4, No. 5, 1980.

6. Information on thatch 13 from Malcolm Lillywhite, Domestic Technol-ogy Institute, private communication, July 8? 1980. infotwation oncooling is from Mehedi N. Bahadori, "Passive Cooling Systems inIranian Architecture," Scientific American, February 1978.

7. Richard C. Stein, Architecture and Energy (Carden City, N.Y.: AnchorPress/Doubleday, 1978).

8. European data are based on Building Research Establishment, "EnergyConservation: A Study of nergy Consumption in Buildings and Possi-ble Means of Saving Energy in &Using," A Building Research Estab-lishmentzWorking Party Report, Watford, England, undated. Patrick J.Minogue, Energy Conservation Potential in Bdildings (Dublin: An ForasForbartha, 1976), and Stig Hammarsten, Suivey of Swedish Build-ings from the Energy Aspect," Energy and Buildings, Apnl 1979. U.S.data from U.S. Congress, Office qf Technology Assessment, ResidentialEnergy Conservation (Washington, D.C.: 1979):

9. Energy use figures are authors' estimates based on data from OnWisa-tion for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), EnergyBalances of OECD Countries (Paris: 1978), Joy Dunkerley, ed., Interna-tional Comparisons of Energy Consumption (Wasiiington, D.C,: Re-sources for the Future, 1978), U.S. Department of Energy, AnnualReport to Congress 1980 (Washington, D.C.: 1980), and U.S. Congress,Office of Technology Assessment, Residential Energy ,Conservation.

10. Information on traditional architecture from Hassan Fathy, Architecturefor the Poor (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1973). Informationon energy problems of Third World buildings from Alan Jacobs,,Energy. .

, Office, U.S. Agency for International Development, private communi-cation, July 9,1980.U.S. Department of Energy, Monthly Energy Review, July 1982; WestGerman figure is from William W. Hogan, "Dimensions of Energy'Demand," in Hans H. Landsberg, ed., Selected Studies on Energy,Background Papir for Energy: The Next Twenty Years (Cambridge,kass.: Ballinget, 1980). Swedish figure is from "Energy Conservation:

3 -3

Notes (pages 40-45) .325

Results and Prospects," OECD Observer, November 1979.12 Joanne Omang, "TVA's .Electrifying Change. Cheap Power Yields to,

'Quality Growth'," Washington,Post,June 1,1980.13. "The Energy Saving Look in Buildings," U S. News and World Report,

1982 (precise date unknown).14 The fundamentals of solar architecture 2re discussed in detail in Bruce

Anderson, The Solar Home Book. Heating, Cooling, and Designing withthe Sun (Andover, Mass Brick House, ,1976), Bruce Anderson, SolarEnergy. Fundamentals in Building Design (New York. McGraw-HillInc , 1977), Edward Ma2ria, The Passive Solar Energy Book (Emmaus,

Rodale Press, 1979), and Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory, PassiveSolar Buildings (Springfield, Va.. National Technical Information Ser-vice, July 1979).

15. The Chicago house is described in Anderson, Solar Home Book. Busi-ness Week quote is from Butti and Perlin, A Golden Thread.

16 Wade Green, "A Conversation with the New Alchemists," Environ-ment, December 1978.

17 The trombe wall is discussed in Anderson, Solar Home Book, J.D.Walton, Jr., "Space Heating with Solar Energy at the CNRS Labora-tory, Odeillo, France," in Proceedings of -the Solar Heating and Coolingfor Buildings Workshop, U S. National Science Foundation, Washing-ton, D.C., 1973, 2nd Ian Hogan, "Solar Building in the Pyrenees,"Architectural Design, January 1975. Information on Ladakh is fromHelena Norberg-Hodge, private comthunication, July 26, 1982

18. Underground houses are described in detail in the Underground SpaceCenter, University of Minnesota, Earth Sheltered Housing (New YorkVan Nostrand Reinhold Co., 1979).

19, Harold R. Hay, "Roof MaSS and Comfort" and "Skytherm Natural AirConditioning for a Texas Factory," in Proceedings of the 2nd NationalPassive Solar Conference, American Section of the International SolarEnergy Society, Philadelphia, March 16-18, 1978; "Roof Ponds CanWork Anywhere," Solar Energy Intelligence Report, June 9, 1980, Wil-liam A. Shurcliff, Supetinsulated and Double-Envelope Houses (Cam-bridge, Mass. 'priVately.published, 198o).

20. Shurcliff, Superinsulated and Double-Envelope Houses, Karl EMunther, "Three Experimental Energy Houses in Ostersund," in Swed-

ish Building Research Summaries (Stockholm. Swedish Council forBuilding Research, 1978), Per Madsen and Kathy Goss, "Low-EnergyHouses in Denmark," Solar Age, February I98o; Robert W Besant,Robert S. Dumont and Creg Schoenau, "Saskatchewan House zooPercent Solar in a Severe Climate," Solar Age, May 1979, "Operational

339

326 Notes (Pagei 45-48)

Saskatchewan Solar-Conservation House Yields Further Data on EnergyEfficient Building Designs," Soft Energy Notes, May 1979; William A.Shurcliff, "Air-to-Air Heat Exchanga for Houses," Solar Age, M'arch1982. .

21. Passive cooling research efforts are dycribed in Darian Diachok andDianne Shanks, International Passive Xrchitectural Survey, Solar EnergyResearch Institute, Golden, Colo., unpublished, September 1980. Gen:eral discussion of solar cooling including the Jeffrey Cook quote is from .Joe Kohler, "A Fresh Look at Solar Cooling," Solar Age, July 1982. /

22. Darian Diachok, Solar Energy Research Institute, private communica-

tion; September 18, 1980. .

23. General information on architectural situation in developing countriesis from Alan Jacobs, Energy Office, U.S. Agency for International Devel-opment, private communication, July 9, 1980, and Malcolm Lillywhite,Domestic Technology Institute, private communication, July 8, 1980.

24. Darian Diachok, Solar Energy Research Institute, private communica-

tion, September 18, 1980.23. For a full discussion of this issue, see "Round Table: A Realistic Look

at 'The Passive Approach'Using Natural Means to Conserve Energy,"Architectural 'Record, August 1980.

26. J. Douglas Balcomb, "Energy Conservation and Passive Solar: WorkingTogether," Los Alamos Scientific Laboritory, Los Alamos, New Mex.,unpublished, 1978. ,

27. The line between active and passive solar systems,is a fuzzy one. Herewe treat systems as passive if they do not rely primarily on fans andpumps to gather solar energy. Data developed in the last few yearsindicate that for space heating of buildings, passive systems (sometimesemploying fans and collectors) are more economical than truly activesystems based on water-filled solar collectors. See Larry Sherwood, "Pas-sive Solar Systems . . . The Economic Advantages," in Proceedings ofthe Solar Energy Symposia, American Section of ihe International SolarEnergy Society, Denver, Colo., August 1978, and Harrison Fraker, Jr.,and William L. Glennie, "A Computer Simulated Performance andCapital, Cost Comparison of ,'Active vs. Passive' Solar .HeatihOys-tems," in Proceedings of the Passive Solar Heating and doling Confer-

.

ence,. American Section of the International Solar Energy Society, Al-

buquerque, New Mex., May 18-19, 1976. . .

28. Listing of solar designers is from National Solar Heatiniand CoolingInformation C'enter, "Passive Solar Building and Design Professionals,"Rockville, Md., unpublished, 1980. Among the leaaing schools in teach-ing solar architecture are the Massachusetts Institute of Teehnology 2nd

.


Arizona State University in the O.S , the Architectural Association inEngland, the University of Alberta in Canada, the University of Auck-land in New Zealand 2nd the Technical University in Denmark. SeeHarrison Fraker, Jr and Donald Prowler, "Evaluation of Energy Con-scious 2nd Climate ResponsiVe Design Curricula in Professional Schoolsof Architecture," Princeton Energy Group, unpublished, March 1979.

29. These problems are discussed in Daniel W. Talbott 2nd Ralph 1. John-son, "What the Builder Needs Before He Will Use Passive Solar Tech-niques," in Proceedings of the 4th National Passive Solar Conference,American Section of the International Solar Energy Society, KansasCity, Mo., October 3-5,1979, and Rick Schwolsky, "Energy ConsciousConstruction," Solar Age, February 1980.,

30 Stu.dies of the economics of alternative building designs include RosalieT. Ruegg et al , Life-Cycle Costing. A Guide for Selecting Energy Con-servation Projects for Public Buildings (Washington, D.C.. U.S. Govern-ment Printing Office, 1978), James W. Taul, Jr., Carol F. Moncrief andMarcia L. Bohannon, "The Economic Feasibility of Passive Solar SpaceHeating Systems" and Mark A. Thayer and Scott A. Noll, "Solar Eco-nomic Analysis An Alternative Approach," in Proceedings of the 3rdNational Passive Solar Conference, American Section of the Interna-tional Solar Energy Society, San Jose, Calif., January 11-13,1979, andPeter F. Chapman, "The Economics of UK Solar Energy Schemes,"Energy Policy, December 1977. Fuel costs for various buildings aredescribed in A.H. Rosenfeld et al., "Building Energy Use Compilationand Analysis (BECA) and an International Compilation and CriticalReview," Lawrence Berkeley Laboratories, Berkeley, Calif., unpub-lished, July 1979.

31. This is both an approximate and a conservative figure. With a gooddesign in a relatively mild climate it is possible to eliminate artificialheating and cooling entirely at virtually no additional cost.

32. Figure on proportion of U.S builders doing passive solar work is basedon a survey of approximately 500 builders done for the Passive SolarIndustries Council (PIC) in 1982. The estimate a 6o,000 to 8o,000passive solar houses in the U S. is a conservative composite figure devel-oped by PSIC in 1982. If all buildings with solar orientation or attachedgreenhouses were included, the number would be at least twice 2S high.The figure on proportion of new starts in the U.S. that incorporatepassive solar features is from a survey by the National Association ofHome Builders Research Foundation in 1982. All of the above weredescribed by David Johnston, Passive Solar Industries Council, privatecommunication, July 22, 1982. InformatiOn on West Germany is from

341


Ken Butti, private communication, June 4, 1982, Information on Scan-dinavia from Per Madsen and Kathy Goss, "Low-Energy Houses inDenmark.".Information on Fiance is from French architect Pierre Diaz-Peditgai,"Ptivate communication, September 3, 1981,

33. Energy poblems of large buildings are discussed extensively in Stein,

Architectifre and Energy.34. Douglas' 13ulleit 2nd George E. Way quotes are included in extensive

discussion of climate-sensitive design for large buildings in "RoundTable: A Realistic Look at 'The Passive Approach'." For a good discus-sion of daylighting of commercial buildings, see "An Interview withWilliam Lam," *liar Age, August 1980. The IBM building is describedin "IBM Uses Multiple Options Approach for Massive Energy Savings

Program," Solar Engineering September 1981.33. Authors' estimate is based on U.S. data in U.S. Congress, Office of

Technology Assessment, Residential Energy Conservation, Europeandata ,in "Energy Conservation: Results and Prospects," OECD Ob-server, Irish data in Minogue, Energy Consirvation Potential in Build-

ings, and Swedish data in U. Thunberg, "Improved Thermal Perform-ance of Existing Buildings," prepared for United Nations Seminar onthe Impact of Energy Considerations on the Planning and Developmentof Human Settlements, Ottawa, October 3-14, 3.977.

36. Ken Bossong, "Homeowner's Guide to Passive Solar Retrofit," CitizensEnergy Project, Washington, D.C., unpublished, 1978. Financial dataare from promotional material, Green Mountain Homes, 1980.

37. Retrofit possibilities are described in Scott F. Keller, Arthur V. Sedrickand William C. Johnson, "Solar Experimerits with Passive Retrofit,"ASHRAE Journal, November 1978, Lany Sherwood, "CommercialBuilding Retrofits," Sunpaper, May 1980, Jeanne W. Powell, An Eco-nomic Model for Passive Solar Design in, Commercial Environme

(Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1980). Thetems used in the San Luis Valley were described by Bob Dunsmore, San

Luis Valley Solar Energy Association, press briefing, July 19, 1982.38. Information on the effects of the Nandy design competition is from

French architect Pierre Diaz-Pedregal, private communication, Septem-ber 3, 1981. The Solar Energy Research Initinite builders programbegan in 1980 and had a brief life, eliminated by the Reagan administra-

. lion in 1981.39. Activities of the National Association of Home.Builders and the Home

Improvement Council were described by David Johnston, Passivegolar

Indiistries Council, private communication, JUly 22, 1982.

342 ,


40. A strong cast for requinng energy labeling of buildings is made byArthur Rosenfeld of the University of California at Berkeley His pro-posal is described in "House Energy Labels Needed, Researcher Says,"Energy ConserVation Digest, April 27, 1981.

41 "Interest Reduced on Solar Loans," Solar Law Reporter, May/June1980, "Hanover Insuranet Cuts Rates 10% for Owners of SolarHomes," Energy Conservation Digest, September 14, 1981.

42 Kathleen Vadnals, 'Light l'Financial Breaks Shines on Passive Solar,"Earth Shelter Digest and Energy RIport, January/February i980, "In-centives for Passive Solar Lag Behind," Energy in New England Forum,Spring 1980.

43 U.S. Department-brEnergy goal is from talk by Frederick H. Morse,Director, Office of Solar' Applications for Buildings, at DOE PassiveSolar Update Meeting The National Aitociation of Home,,Builders(NAHB) goal is frorn Michael Bell of NAHB, private communication,March 2, 1981.

,44 According to U.S Congress, Office of Teehnology Assessment, Residemtial Energy Conseivation, 146 gigajoules of primary ehergy is needed toheat and cool a typical gas-heated, electrically-cooled residence in Balti-more A passive solar design could reduce energy requirements by at leasthalf, or 73 gigajoules Ten million such designs would save 0.7 exajoules.Fifty million would save 3.,7 exajoules One hundred million would save'7.3 exajoules.

45. Designer quoted is Fred Dubin in "Round Table. A Realistic Look atthe Passive Approach:"

h43ter 4. Solar Collection. 1. Ken Butti and Jolih Perlin, A Golden Thread. 2000 Years of Solar

Architecture and Technology ,(New York. Van Nostranditeinhold Co.,1980).

2. Ibid.3. Ibid.+ R. Melicher et al., Solar Water Heating in FlOrida (Washington, D.C.

National Science Foundation, i074), Ethan B Kapstein, "The Transi-tion to Solar Energy An Historical Approach," in Lewis J Perelman,August W. Cielbelhaus and Michael D. Yokel], eds., Energy Transitions(Washington, D.C.. American Academy for the Advancement of Sci-ence, 1981)

5. For history of solar collectors in Israel, see "Israel's Place in the Sun,"

243

330 Notes (pages 19-64

Nature, October 19, 078. Israel's export markets Mt describedjp "Ex-ports of Solar Ponds Gather Steam," World Busirieis Weekly, Septem-ber 22, 1980. .

6. For an overview of the variety of solar collectors, see U.S."Congress,Office of Technology Assessment, Application of yolar Technology torodayW Energy Needs, Vol. 2 (Washington, D.C. 1978).

7. On storage of solar heat, see William D. Metz, "Energy Storage andSolar Power: An Exag&erated Problem," Sciente, June 30, 1978.

8. Bruce J. Walker, "MaTket: Challenges for Solar Products," Business,March/April 1979; 'Quality of Solar Installers Held Higher Than Ex-perience/Training Oained Elsewhere," Solar Energy Intelligence Re-port,. December 14, 1981; R. Roy,'"Comparison of Commercial andDo-it-Yourself SOlar Collectors,".Sun at Work in Britain

9. The economics of solar heating are discussed in Eric, Hirst, "Is SolarReally the Best Way?," ASHRAE foirrnal, January 198o; Avraham.Shama, "The Solai High Potential/Low Adoption Paradox,".Solar Engi-neering, December 1981 and, Office of Technology Assessment, Appli-cation of Solar Energy to Today's Energy Needs.

10. Roger H. Bezdek, Alan S. Hirshberg and William H. Babcock, "Eco-domic.Feasibility pf Solar Water and Space Heating," Science, March23, 1979.

11. Overall U.S. energy use patterns are described in Solar Energy ResearChInstitute, A New Proiperity. Building a Renewdble Futyre (Andover,Mass.. Brick House, 1981). Energy use patte s in developing countries.are described in V. Smil and W.E. Knowla , rgy in thebevelpping World (New York. Oxford University Press; 1980).

12. Kevin Bell, "Heat Pump Water Heaters. Goodbye to Active Solar?,"RAIN, April 1981. .

13. Jim Harding, "Staying Out of Hot Water," soft Energy Notes, Oc-tober/November 1980, 'Joe Carter and Robert C. FloWer, "The Micro-Load," Solar Ae, September 1980, and Raymond W. Bliss, "Why NotJust Build,th ouse Right in the First Place?" in Robert H. Williams,ed., Towarila Solar Civilization (Cambridge, Mass.. MIT Press 1978).

14. Abraham binovich, "More Than One in Ten Israelis Heat with SolarEnergy," World Environment Repott, March 24, 1980.

15. "Production of Solar Heaters in Japan," World Environment Report,August 11, 1980, "Japanese Lead World in Solar Hot Water Use," SotarEngineering, February 1'981, "MITI Bares 16-Year Program to DevelopAlternative Energy," Japan Times, September 19-23, 1979; Sara Terry,"Sun Power from the Land of the Rising Sun," Christian Science Moni-tor, August 12, 198.1.

3,44


16 "Alternative Enemy Use Gravth Since 1975 equals 22% of Total U S.Energy Growth. TRM," Solar Energy Intelligence Report, June zz,1981, "Solar Heating and Cooling Equipment Sales," Solar Energy

. Intelligence Report, October i3, 198o, U S Department of Energy,Solar Collector Manufacturing Activity, January Through lune 1981(Washington, D C Energy Information Administration 1981) andSolarWork Institute, Status Report on California's Solar Collector In-dustry (Sacramento, Calif. Office of Appropriate Technology 1982),

17 "In Europe, Solar Power Poised for Great Leap Forward," The EnergyDaily, January 5, 1982; Peter E. Firth, "Growth or the U.K. SolarEnergy Industry," Sunworld, Vol. 5, No. 3, 1981; "Solar Power, Usedby Ancient Greeks, Spreads Like Fire Today," Christian Science Moni-tor, October 15, 1981 and J. B. Kirkwood, "Solar Energy Alternatives,"in Liquid Fuels. What Can Australia Do? (Canberra Australian Acad-

, emy of Science, 1981).18 Trevor Drieberg, 'India Outlines Plans for Solar Energy Use,'" Journal

of Commerce, September 25, 1980, "Installation of the Month. KoreanResort to Get 1-Billion BTU/Year from the Sun," Solar Energy Intelli-

- gence Report,' March 15, 1982, Arnaldo Vieira de Carvalho, Jr. et al.,"Solar Energy for Steam Generation in Brazil," Interciencia, May/June1979

19 M. M Hoda, "Solar Cookers," in International Solar Energy Society,Sun. Mankiiid's Future Source of Energy (New York. Pergamon Press,197. 8), M. M. Hoda, "Solar Cooker," Appropriate Techrplogy, August1977.

zo. T. A. Lawand, "The Potential of Solar Cooking in Developing Areas,':United Nations Industrial Development Organization Conference,Vienna, Austria, February 14-18, 1977, "Upper Volta Women TestingDutch Sun Oven:: The Washington Star, April zz, 1978.

21, B A. Stout, Energy for World Agriculture (Rome. Food and AgriculiureOrganization, 1979) and Arjun Makhijafti and Alan D. Poole, Energyand Agriculture in the Third World (Cambridge, Mass . Ballinger,

1975).zz. J D. Walton, Jr, , "Solar Energy for Rural Development in the Asia and

Pacific Region," Georgia Institute of Technology Engineering Experi:ment Station, Atlanta, October 15, 1980, TA. Lawand and B Saulnier,"The Potential of Solar Agricultural Dryers in Developing Areaspre-sented to the United Nations Industrial Development OrganizationConference, Vienna, Austria, February 14-18, 1977, "Drying Grathwith Solar Saves Money, But Few Farmers Are Aware of Potential,"Soldr Energy Intelligence Report, January 25, 1982, "Experimental Solar

345

Ira

. 332 Notes (pages 6648)

Drying Leaves Good Quality Corn." Journal of Commerce, December7, 1976. For an excellent overview of the current state of solar technol-ogy for use in agriculture see Walter G. Heid, Jr. and Warrn Trotter, .Progress of Solar TecEnology and- Potential Farm Uses (Washi*on,D,.C.: U.S. Department of Agriculture, September 1982).

23. Brace Research Institute, Technical Report T99: A Survey ofAgricultural Dryers f Ste. Anne de Bellevue, Canada: McGill Univ. ty,December 1975); C. Styart Clark, "A Solar Food Dryer Ban-

gladesh," Appropriate Technology, March 1982; "Sri Lan ries SolaiTea Drier," China Daily, November zk, 198 .

24. "Chapter 5: DistillatiOn Methods," fm . . piegler, Salt WaterPurification, 2nd ed; (New York: Plenum Press, 1977).

25. J. R. Willianis, Solar Energy. Technology and Applications (Ann Arbor:Science Publishers, 1974); "Table 1. Existing Large Solar Stills, 1969,"in Solar Distillation as a Means of Meeting Small-Scale Water Demands(New York United gations, 1970); Roff Grunbaum, "Alternative En.ergy Sources in the USSR," Ambit), Vol. 7, No. 2. .

26 S..D. Gomkale and R. L. Datia, "Solar Distillation' in India," Annalsof Arid Zone, _Vol, 15(3), No. 208, 1976; S. D.'Goinkale and H. D.coghari, Central Salt and Marine Chemicals Research Institute, "SolarDittillation in India," Bhavnagar, India, 1979; R. Alward and T. A.Lawand, "§olar Distillation. How One Village Got Involved," CERES,November/December 1980.

27. R. K. Saksena and J. V. S. Mani, "Solar Collectors for Rural Use,"Sunworld, vol. 4, No. 5, 1980; "Installation of the month: Papua NewGuinea Hotel Gets Solar DHW Systern$ Solar Energy IntelligenceReport, July 19, 1982, "Hong Kong Planning to Offer Less ExpensiveSolar Devices," Journal of Commerce, October-11, 1978.

28. India pumping figure is from Douglas Smith; "Rural Electrification orVillage Energization,"Interciencia, March/April 1980. Water pumpingenergy requirements in California are described in Robert Ranzel, ARiver No More (New York: Random Hode, 1981).

29. J. D. Walton, Jr% A. H. Roy, and S. H. Bomar, jr,, "A State of the ArtSurvey of; Solar Powered Irrigation Pumps,. Solar Cookers, and WoodBurning Stoves for' Use in Sub-Sahara Africa," GeOrgia Institute ofTechnology-Engineering.Experiment Station, Atlanta, 1978.

30. Max G. Clemot, "Contribution of %Tar Energy to the Development ofArid ZOnes: Solar Water Pumps," Societe Francaise d'Etudes Tiler-

- miques et d'Energie Solaire, n.p., September 1978. .

.31. An optimistic assessment of solar pump potential is "Solar Pumps CanCompete," World Solar Markets, August 1981.

346,

Notes (pages 69773) 33

32 The directions of solar collection innovation 2re described in WilliamA. Shurcliff, "Active-Type Solar Heating Systems for Houses. A Tech-nology in Ferment," in RoberiE. Williams, Toward a Solar Civilization(Cambridge, Miss.: MIT Press, 1978). "

33. Per Madsen and Kathy Goss, "Report on Nob-Metallic Solar Collet-tors," Solar Age,:iatillary 1981,; "Plastic Films and Laminates in Collet-tors*SeenSlashing Installed Costs of HC Systems," Solar Energy Intelli-gence Report, April 5, 1982; John W. Andrews and Willian G.Wilhelm, "ThinFilm Flat.Plate Solar Collectors for Low-Cost Manu-,facture and Installation," Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, New

- York, 198o: -34. Elyse Axell, "The Solar Sandwich. Cheap-iilm Laminates Keplace Cop-

per and Glass," Soft Energy Notes, OctOber/November 1980.35. Barry Butler and Rob Livingston, "Fusion-Drawn Glass, Super Glazing

for Solar Applications," The SERI Journal, Spring 1981.36 David Godolphin, "Rising Hopes for Vacuum Tube Collectors," Solar

Age, June 1982, Wendy Peters, "Evacuated Tube Oollectors 'LogicalProgression,' " Canadian Renewable Energy News, March 1981.

37, Charlisfirucker, "Some Like it Hotter,"-Soft Energy Notes, October/November 198o, Ken Brown, "The Use of Solar Energy to ProduceProcess Heat for Industry," Solar Energy.Research Institute, Golden,Colo., 1980,

38. Everett D. Howe,"Solar Thermal Power. Overview," Sunwprld, Vol 5,No. 3, 1981, Allen L Hammond and William D.1iiietz, '''CapturingSunlight, A Revolution in .Colleacir 'Design," -,Spi`ence, July 1, i97,8;Frank Kreitb, A Technicll and Econo'inic Assessment of I'lfee Solar'Conversion Technologies," Solar Energy Research Institute', Golden,-

. -. -Colo., July 1979. .39. Alan T. Marriott, "earabolic Dish Systems at Work:Applying The

Concepts," Sufiworld, Vol 5, No. 3, 1981, Vincent C. Truscello, "Para-bolic Dish Collectors A. Solar-Option," Sunworld, Vol. 5, No. 3, 19814

. .Elyse Axell and Katy Slichier, "Solar Pilots Take Off ," Soft EnergyNotes, October/November 1980, E Kenneth May, "The Potential forSupplying Solar Thermal Energy to Industrial Unit Operations," SolarEnergy Research Insthute, Golden, Colo., April 1980.

40. For progress in .Fresnel lens_develognient, see Charles Drucker, "Roll =Out The Lenses," Soft Energy NOtes, October/November; 1§80.

41. A good overview of the solar central receiver technology is Richard S.Caput(); "Solar Power Plants. -Dark Horst .in the Energy Stable," inRobert It_ Willianis, ed., Toward a Solar Civilization (Cambridge,MasS . MIT Press, 1978), Smelter project is discussed. in George Stem

3 4 7

4.

334. Notes (Ara 72-74)

and Paul Alkn Curto, "Central Receiver Applications for Utilities andIndustry," Gibbs and Hill, Inc., New York, N.Y. Martin Marietta Den-ver Aerospace, "Advanced Conceptual Design for Solar Repowering ofthe Segiraro Power Plant," Denver, Cob., October 1981; R Raghavan,R. T. Nehar, and J. Corcoran, "Central Receiver Solar Retrofit SYstemProposed for Refinery," Modern Power *stems, Noiember 1981; E. KMay, "Solar Energy 2nd the Oil Refining Industry," Solar Energy Re-search Instrtute, Golden, Cob., March 1980.

42. For California solar thermal electric projects, see Burt Solomon, "PowerTower Ushers In Commercial Solar Age," The Energy Daily, April 19,

, 1982 and "SoCal Edison Seeking Proposals for rco-MEW Solar Ther-mal Power Plant," Solar Energy Intelligence Report, May ro, 1982. Fora representative critique of the "power towers," see Brian Gallagher,"Solar Thermal-Power Towers," Report Series No. 107, Citizens EnergyProject, Washington, D.C., 1981.

43. Solar Industrial Process Heat, Conference Proceedings, Houston, Texas,December 16-19, 1980, sponsored by the Solar Energy Research Insti-tute, Golden Cob. For specific projects, see "Food Industry Uses SolarPower fkr Processing and Saves Energy Dollars," Chilton's Oil and GasEnergy, September 1980; Sara Terry, ." 'Cooking' Frozen Orange Juice:Solar Comes to Food ,Industry," Christian Science Monitor; April 2,198o; Susan C. Frey, "On West Coast, More Complex Solar PreheatsWater to Wash Old Cans," Christian Science Monitor, August 13,1980..

44. E. I. Rattin and P. K. Munjal, "Solar Enhanced Oil Recovery," Sun-world, Vol. 5, No, 3, 1981; Sara Terry, "Solar Energy May Help PryHard-to-Recover 'Heavy Oil' Out of Old Fields, Christian ScienceMonitor, April 23, 1980.

45. "Prospects for Solar Industrial Process Heat," Solar Engineering, March.1980, Kenneth Brown, "Cost and Performance Vary WidelY," SolarEngineering, June 1981.

46. For 2n overview of the technology of solar air conditioning, see DavidVenhuizen, "Will Active Cooling End Up High and Dry?," Solar Age,September 1982 and "Solar Powered Air Conditioning," Heating-/Piping/Air Conditioning, January 1980. For specific commercialbenchmarks and prospects, see Joe Szastak, "Canadian Firm and U.S.-Japan Team Market Zeolite," Canadian Renewable Energy News, Octo-ber 1981. "Dessicant Solar Cooling Could be Competitive in Late298o's, ET-9 Told," Solar -Energy Intelligence Report, February 22,1982, Emilie Tavel Livezey, "Something New Under the Sun," Chris-tian Science Monitor, October 27, 1981.

348

Note3 (pages .74-78) 3354

47 U.S air conditiong figures from Solar Energy Research Institute, Build-ing a Sustainable Future (Andover, M2S$ . Brick House, 1981).

48 Christine Sutton, "Solar EnergyThe Salty Solution," New Siientist,September 17, 1981, Thomas H. Maugh II, "Solar With A Grain ofSalt," Science, June ii, 1982, B Nimmo, A. Dabbagh, and S. Said, "SaltGradient Solar Ponds," Sunworkl, Vol. 5, No. 4, r981.

49. For specific solar pond projects, see "Dead Sea Project to Supply MultiMegawatts of Power," Solar Engineering, April 198o, "Salton Sea Studyto Determine Eleetrical Generation Potential," Solar Engineering April1980, "Australia's' First Solar Pond Starts Up," World Solar Markets,

' October 1981; ". . . And Portugal Opens First Solar Pond," WorldSolar Markets, December 1981, "Solar Perspectives. Solar Pond Power,The Israel-California Connection," Sunworld, Vol. 4, No. 5, 1980.

5o. Allan S. Krass 2nd Roger LaViale, III, "Community Solar Ponds,"Environment, July/August 198o, Layton J. Wittenberg and Marc J.HattiS, "City of Miamisbutg Heats Pool with Salt Gradient Solar Pond:Solar Engineering April 1980.

51 The environmental and land use impacts of solar ponds 2re discussed inT. S Jayadev 2nd M Edesess, "Solar Ponds.and Their Applications,"Solar Energy Research Institute, Golden, Colo March 1980. Jet Pro-pulsion Laboratory, Salton Sea Solar Pond Project, (Pasadena, Calif.:California Institute of Technology, 1981).

52,-Tor an overview of ocean thermal energy, see Gerald L. Wich andWalter R. Schmitt, eds., Harvesting Ocean Energy (Paris: TheUNESCO Press, 1981) 2nd Tom Johnson, "Electricity from the Sea,"Popular Science, May,1981.

53 Lyle E. Dunbar, "Market Potential for OTEC in Developing Nations,"(LaJolla, Calif.: Science Applications, Inc., 1981).

54. Problems with OTEC technology are discussed in Clarence Zener"Solar SC2 Power," Robert H. Williams, ed., Toward ANSolar Civiliza-tion (Cambridge, Mass...MIT Press, 1978), U.S. Congress, Office ofTechnology Assessment, Ocean ThIrmal Energy Conversion (Washing-ton, D.C.: 1979).

55 "Report .of the Technical Panel On Ocean Energy On Its SecondSession," prepared for the United Nations Conference on New andRenewable Sources of Energy:Nairobi, Kenya, August 10-21,.i981.U S. OTEC program is discussed in Beverly Karplus Hartli9e, "TappingSun-Warmed Ocean Water for Power,". Science, Augtfit 15, 1980.Japan OTEC program is discussed in Glyn Ford 2nd Luke Georghiou,lapan Stakes its Industrial Future in the Sea," New Scientist, JUne 3,198o and Tony Marjoram, "Energy Pipe Dreams in the'Pacific," New

349

336 Notes (pages 7840)

Scientist, August 12, 1982. Nauru erojeCt is discussed in "Japan turnsthe dream into reality7 New Scientist, August 12, 1982. The impact ofOTEC in Hawaiian energy prospects is described in John W. Shupe,"Energy Self-Sufficiency for Hawaii," Science, lune xi, 1982.

56. The environmental effects of OTEC facilities are discussed in "OceanEnergy," special issue of Oceanus, Winter 1979/80.

57. For an overview of solar energy R&D piograms in various countries, seeGeorge F. W. Teller, "Prance Bares Solar Power MuscleVoumal ofCommerce, March 12, 1979, Robert Richards, "Solar Prototype Devel-opments in Spain Show Great Promise," Modern Power Systems, April

. 1982, Robert Gibbs, "Potable Water horn Briny Seas and BrackishLakes," R & D in Mexico, December 2981/January 1982. For specificnumbers see International Energy Agency, Energy Research, Develop-ment and Demonstration in the lEA Countries, 1981 Review of NationalProgrammes (Paris. Organisation for EconomiC Co-operation and De-velopment, 1982).

58. For an analysis of the kinds of questions facing solar energy research- programs, see U.S. Congress, Office of Technology Assessment, Conser-

vation, and Solar Enerp Programs of the Department of Energy: ACritique (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, June1980). An interesting case study of how political machinations undercuttechnological progress is Byron Harris, "No Profit in Politics,"Atlantic,May 1982.

59. An excellent study of the impact of government R&D strategies on small

innovative private companies in the United States is Committee onSmall Business, House of Representatives, Role of Government Fundingand Its Impact on Small Business in the Solar Energy Industry (Washing-ton, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office 1980).

6o. An analysis of long-term vs. short-tenn research goals is found in SolarLobby, Blueprint for a Solar 4,nerica (Washington, D.C.: 1979).

61. Irene F. Olson, "State Tax Incentives for Solar Energy," Journal ofEnergy and Development, Spring 1981; Alan Chen, "Spotlight on SolarSubsidies," Soft Energy Notes, August/September 1981, JonathanUoyd-Owen, "Japan," Canadian Renewable Energy News, August1981.

62. For examples of effective local programs to promote solar collector use,see "San Diego County Basking in Benefits of Solar Energy Legislation,"New York Times, February ro, 1981 and Allan Mazur, "Solar Heatersin Israel," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, February 1981, Sara Terry,"Solar Energy Gets 'A New 'Lease' in Oceanside, Calif." ChristianScience Monitor, December 30, 1981.'"California Town flays Middle-

Notes (pages 80,83) 337

MD in $20 Million Solar LAsing Ptan," The Energy Daily, January 5,1982.

63. For a disCussion of industrial investment motivations, see G N Hat-sopoulds et al., "Capital Investment to Save Energy," Harvard BusinessReview, March/April 1978. .

64 New leasing strategies are discussed in Sara Terry, "Solar Energy Leas-ing Cuts High Cost of Providing 'Harness' for the Sun," ChristiapScience Monitor, July 20, 1981. Barnaby J. Feder, "On Marketing theUnknoWn," New York Times, September 3, 1981, Aryeh Wolman,"Israeli Solar Firm Sells Steam to U.S. Textile plants," Canadian Re-newable Energy News, October 1981, Christopher Pope, " 'Solar. Util-ify' Leases Collectors," Renewable Energy News, FebrUary 1982.

65. Various economic disincentives to use solar energy systems are describedin Solar Lobby, Blueprint for a Solar America (Washington, D.C._

1979).66. j 13 Kirkwood, "Solar Energy Alternatives," Liquid Fuels. What Can

Australia Do', (Canberra. Australian Academy of Science, 1981), Ran-dalf J Feurestein, "Utility Rates and Solar Commercialization," SolarLaw Reporter, July/August 1979, D. Spencer, "Solar Energy. A ViewFrom an 'Electric Utility Standpoint," American Power Conference,April 21-23, 1975, Joseph G. Asbury and Ronald 0. Mueller, "SolarEnergy and Electric Utilities. Should They Be Interfaced?" Science,February 4, 1977 and "Colorado PUC Orders New Electric BackupRates for Solar Energy," Solar Law Reporter, September/October,1979.

67. Modesto A. Madique and Benson Woo, "Solar Heating and ElectricUtilities," Technology Review, May 1980, Norman L. Dean and AlanS. Miller, "Plugging Solar Power Into the Utility Grid," EnvironmentalLaw Reporter, July, 1977, Stephen Feldman and Bruce Anderson, "Fi-nancial Incentives for the Adoptidn of Solar Energy Design. Peak LoadPricing of Back-Up Systems," Solar Energy, April 1975.

68. TVA's solar program is described in S. David Freeman, "After theJoyride," The Futurist, December 1080. The impact of greater use ofrenewable energy on the TVA system is analyzed in U.S Congress,General Accounting Office, "Electric Energy Options Hold GreatPromise for the Tenneiste Valley Authority," November 1978.

69'. "Utility Makes Gain in Renewables Plan,", Solar Law Reporter, Jan-uary/February 102, Larry Goldberg, "Bringing Solar Down To Earth,"Critical Mass Energy Journal, June 15, 1982, "SoCal Edison: Up theSoft Path," The Energy Daily, March 19, 1981. .

70 A review of 198o utility activity in tht solar field is found in MargaretLaliberte, "Solar Update," EPBI Journal, June 1981.

3 5 1.

.,

338 Notes (pages 4-88),

71. The GM against utility and oil company involvement in solar energy ismade in Scott Denman and Ken Bossong, "Big Oil Makes Its Move,"Amicus Journal, Spring 1981, and Ken Bossong, "Opposing UtilityInvolvement in Solar Pommercialization," Citizen's Energy Project,Washington, D.C.: July 1979.

72. Examples of recent sales of solar subsidiaries are described in PeterSteinhart, "Standard Oil Sells DHW Technology," Solar Timis, No-vember 1981. "Ainerican Solar King Acquires Daystar for $2.2-VilliOnFrom Exxon Enterprises," Solar Energy Intelligence Report, February2, 1981; "Olin Gets Out of Solar Energy Business; Will No LongerMake Collectors, Absorbers," Solar Energy Intelligence Report, June 29,1981; Ron Scherer, "Solar's Bright Promise: Corporate SecondThoughts," Christian Science Monitor, February 12, 1981.

73. Studies of solar markets in Europe and Japan are summarized in "BestEuropean Solar Markets Seen in France, Greece, Spain, Italy, Ger-many," Solar En Report, January 11, 1982, and "1981:Solar In a of Flux," World Solar Markgts, January 1982.'

74. InterTecbnogy Corporation, Analysis of the Economic Potential ofSolar Thenhal Energy to Provide Industrial Process Heat (Warrenton,Va.. In terTechnology Corp. 1977) and A Response Memorandum to thePresident, Domestic Policy Review of Solar Energy (U.S. Department ofEnergy: Washington, D.C., February 1979). Other studies of solar mar-ket potential are summarized in "Active Cooling to Snare 2o% MarketShare," Solar Energy Intelligence Repot November 30, 1981, PeterSteinhart; "Local Firms and Low-Cdff Collectors Will Lead to $2o-Billion Solar Industry," Solar Times, October 1981, and "Fast Growthto Huge Industry Forecast for Alternate Energy," Solar Engineering,December 2981.

75. Regional Applicability and Potential of Salt-Gradient Solar Ponds in theUnited States, Vol. I: Executive summary (Pasadena, Calif.: Jet Propul-sion Laboiatory, California Institute of Technology, 1981). Dr. Tabor'ssurvey of 14 countries is described in Sandra Wiosberg "Solar PondSystems," Sunworld, Vol. 5, No..4, 1981. "Large-Scale Solar PondsProposed for Australia by, University of Sydney," Solar Energy Intelli-gence-Report, March 9, 1981.

Chapter 5. Sunlight to Electricity: The New ,.lchemy

1. Estimate of wpm sOlar-powered houses is from Paul Maycock, a U.S.photovoltaics consultant, private communication, March 8, 1982.

2. The photovoltaics industry worldwide manufactured approximately 5oo .

352


kilowatts of solar cells in 1977 and 8,coo kilowatts in 1982. Solar cell costfigures fell from $19 per peak watt in 1977 to $10 per peak watt in 1982.See William J. Murray, "PV in 1980. Growth Accelerates," Solar Engi-neering, January 1981, and "Photovoltaics. Ready Kilowatts fromTOday's Electric Alternatwe," Solar Engineering & Contracting, June1982,

). Detailed descriptions of photovoltaics technology and the history of itsdevelopment 2re included in Paul D. Maycock and Edward N. Stirewalt,Photovoltaics. Sunlight to Electricity in One Step (Andover, %SS.. BrickHouse, 1981), Bruce Chalmers, "The Photovoltaic Generation of Elec-tricity," Scientific American, October 1976, "The Promise of Photovol-taics," Solar Energy Research Institute Journal, Spring 1981, and EdRoberton, ed., The Solarex Cuide to Solar Electricity (Rockville, Md..The Solarex Corporation, 1981).

4. "Solar Cell Is Ready for Commercial Jobs," Business Week, July 20,1957. -

5 For a more detailed discussion of silicon solar cell technology, seeYvonne Howell and David Adler, "How Silicon Solar Cells Work,"Sunworld, Vol. 4, No. 1, 1980, and Jeffrey L. Smith, "Photovoltaics,"Science, June 26, 1981.

6. The costs cited.in this chapter are for solar cell "modules," ttrilessotherwise noted Photovoltaic "systems" costs 2re nearly twice 2S highbecause they include the cost of assembly 2nd support materials 2S wellas the cells themselves. Cost and market figures lieie are the authors'estimates based on discussions with industry representatives and marketanalysts. The 15oo houses estimate is the authors' and is based onaverage household electricity use of 8co kilowatt hours per month andthe photovoltaics operating on average at 20 percent of their rated peakcapacity, which is their output in full sunlight.

7 This is the authors' estimate based on the photovoltaics operating onaverage at 20 percent of capacity and having a 2o-year life. Approxi-mately half the kilowatt-hour cost is for the "balance of system," includ-ing battery storage.

8. Investment estimate is the at,ithors' based on government budgets ofmajor countries and discussions with industry analysts.

9. U.S. Government funding levels are from Center for Renewable Re-sources, The Solar Agenda. Progress and Prospects (Washington, D.C.1982). The research program is described in Henry Kelly, "PhotovoltaicPower Systems. A Tour Through the Alternatives," Science, February10, 1978, Paul Maycock, "Overview of the U.S. Photovoltaic Program,"in Fifteenth IEEE Photovoltaic Specialists Conferenci 1981 Proceed-

1

353.,


ings, Kissimmee, Florida, May 12,r5,.1981, and U.S. Department ofEnergy, Photovoltaic Energy Systems Program Summary (Springfield,Vi.: Nationil Technical Information Servide, 1982).

ro. Information on European and Japanese photovoltaics programs is fromR. R. Ferber, U.S. Jet Propulsion. Laboratory, "The.Status of ForeignPhotovoltaics it&D," in U.S. House of Representatives, Subcommitteeson Energy Development and Applications, ahcl Investigations and Over-sight, Committee on Science and Teclmology, Joint Hearings, June 3,1982.

11. Smith, "Photovoltaics"; H.L. Durand, "Photovoltaics: Present Statusand Future Prospects," Sunworld, Vol. 4, No. 1, 1980; Charles F. Cay,"Solar Cell Technology: An Assessment of the State of the Art," Solar

-Engineering, March 1980.12. Advanced silicon manufacturing processes are described in Joseph L.

Loferski, "Photovoltaics I: Solar Cell Arrays," IEEESPectrum, February1980.

_tAinozphoussiliconiechno1ogy is_describedin L.Richard Burke, "Photo-voltaics: Down to Earth at Last," Solar Energy Research Institute jour-nal, Spring 1981.

14. "Sanyo Electric, Fuji Electric Boast Amorphous Si PV Efficiencies of6.91%, 6.47%," Solar Energy Intelligence Report, April 27, 1981;"Japan Dominates PV Calculator Market," World Solar Markets, Sep-tember 1981, Paul Danish, "Japanese Produce Amorphous Cells withOver 7.5% Conversion Efficiency," Solar Times, October 1981. TheJapanese produced 700 kilowatts of amorphous silicon cells in 1982 andlead the world in production, iiroduct testing, and marketing accordingto Paul Maycock, "My Fact Finding Tour of Japan," Solar Age, Septem-ber 1982.

15. Paul Blythe, Jr., "Thin Film Solar Cell Research Progresses," SolarEngineering, April 1981, "Boeing Achieves Highest Efficiency Ever forTrue Thin-Film Photovoltaic Cell," $olar Energy Intelligence Report,August 4, 1980, Solar Energy Research Institute, Environmental Health,Safety, and Regulatory Review of Selected Photovoltaic bptioqs (Spring-field, Va.: National Technical Information Service, 1982).

16. Concentrators are described in E. C. Boes, B. D. Shafer and D. C.Schueler, "Economic Motivation for Photovoltaic Concentrator Tech-nology," Sandia National Laboratory Report, unpublished, 1981. Astrong case for concentrator technology's future competitiveness is madein Harbinger Research Corporation, Photovoltaic Power Systems Par-ents. A Technical and Economic Analysis (White Plains, N.Y.: Madsenkussell Associates, Ltd., 1982).

254

Notes (pages 96-soo) 341

17. U.S. Department of Energy, Multi-Year Program Plan, National Photo-voltaics Program (Washington, D.C. U.S. Government Printing Office,198o).

18. These figures are the authors' estimates based on assessments of variousanalysts. See, for example, "Maycock Predicts PV Future," World SolarMarkets , August 1982, and "IEEE Conference Report," PhotovoltaicInsider's Report; November 1982.

19. Figures on industry size are autilore estimates based on discussion withindustry analysts.

zo. Thc photovoltaics industry is well-described in U.S. Department ofCommerce, "Photovoltaics Industry Profile," unpublishedf 1981, Bar-rett Stambler and Lyndon Stambler, Competition in the PhotovoltaicsIndustry. A Question of Balance (Washington, D,.C.. Center for Renew-able Resources, 1982), and Science Applications, Inc., Characterizationand Assessment of Potential European and Japanese Competition inPhotovoltaics (Springfield, Va.. National Technical Information Ser-vice, 1979).

21 This figure is an estimate by Paul Maycock in remarks to., the AmericanSection'af the International Solar Energy Society, Annual Conference,Philadelphia, Pa., May 26, 1981.

22. Critical views of oil companies' involvement in photovoltaics are in-cluded in Ray Reece, The Sun Betrayed: A Report on the CorporateSeizure of U.S. Solar Energy Development (Boston. South End Press,1979), Stambler and Stambler, Competition in the Photovoltaics Indus-try, 2nd Ralph Flood, "Big Oil Reaches for the Sun," New Scientist,November 12, 1981. Morris Adelman is quoted in Ralph Flood, "Big OilReaches for the Sun."

23. Thc Japanese success in amorphous silicon is described in Douglas L.Finch, "The Japanese Photovoltaic Threat," Solar Age, February 1981,R. Ferber and K. Shimada, "Japanese Photovoltaic R&D;" U.S1 JetPropulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif., unpublished, 1982, and May-cock, "My Fact Finding Tour." European firms' progress is describedin William J. Murray, "The Europeans 2re Coming," Solar Engineering,September 1981. A particularly exciting joint venture in amorphoussilicon technology was announced by ,the Sharp Corporation in Japanand Energy Conversion Devices in the United States in 1982, describedin Burt Solomon, "Sharp, ECD to Produce Silicon Cells in Japan,"Energy Daily, June 22, 1982.

24. A good analysis of the evolving international market is Science Applica-tions, Inc., Characterization and Assessment of Potential European andJapanese Competition.

355

342 Notes (pes '100-104)

25. David Moths, Self-Reliant Cities (San Francisco: Sierra Club Books,198z).

26. Louis Rosenblum', "Status of Photovoltaic ,Systems for Applications inDeveloping Countries," National Aeronautics and Space Administra-tion, unpublished, 1981.

27. The Papago Indian Reservation systeni is descriied in Bill D'Alessaridro,"Villagers Light the Way: Solar Cell Power in Gunsight, Arizona," SolarAge, May 1979. The potential of photovoltaics in developing countriesis discussed in Charles Drucker, "Third World Briefii: PhotovoltaicsDebated," Soft Energy Notes, May/June 1982 and Dennis Elwell,"Solar Electricity Generation in Developing Countries," Mazingira,Vol. 5/3, 1981.

28. "PV Equipment Manufacturers See Growing Market in Third World,"Solar Energy Intelligence Report, February 22, 1980; Rebecca Kzuff-man, "India Promotes Local pv for Space and Pumping," RenewableEnergy News, April 1982; "Pakistan Gets First of 14 PV Generators,"World Solar Markets, October 1981.

29. Miles C. Russell, "An Apprentice's Guide to Photovoltaics," Solar'Age,

July 1981.

3o. Photovoltaic residences 2re described in Miles C. Russell, 'ResidentialPhotovoltaic System Designs," Solar Engineering, November 1981,Charles H. Cox, III, "Power Producing Homes: Making the UtilityConnection," Sblar Age, December 1981, Gorden F. Tully, J. StewartRoberts and Thomas A. Downer, "The Design Tradeoff for the Mid toLate 1980's. Photovoltaics versus Passive," in Proceedings of the 5th'National Passive Sola Conferince, 2nd Burt E. Nichols and Steven JStkong, "The CajkTè House. Solar Electric Residence is Energy Self-Sufficient," Sola Engineering, November 1981. --

31. The various lar e solar power projects are described in "Major SolarProjects Round the World," World Solar Markets, December 1981,"Fresnel Lens PV Systems Starting.Up at Saudi Villages," Solar EnergyIntelligence Report, May 17, 1982, "ARCO to Build 1-MWePV Array,Sell Power to SoCal Ed," Soar Energy Intelligence Report, April 5,1982, and "100 MWPhase One," Renewable Energy News, February1982.

32. The Original proposal for an orbiting solar electric system is P.E Glaser,"Power frOm the Sun. Its Future," Sciebce, November 22, ,§68. De-tailed critical assessments of the concept are National Science Founda-tion, Elecfric Power from Orbit. A Critique of a Satellite Power System(Washington, D.C.. 1981), and U.S. Congress, Office oT Technology.Assessment, Solar Power Satellites (Washington, D.C.: 1981)..

356

. Notes (pagp( 2o5:22) 343,4

33 The U S, photovoltaics goals are stt forth in U.S Congress, ASolar

Photovoltaic Energy Research, Pevelopment, and Demonstration Actof 1978," Washington, D.C., 1978 and U.S Department of Energy,Multt-Year Program Plan. A "maximum practical" figure of i o quadsfor the year 2000 was used by the landmark study, Domestic PolicyReview of Solar Energy (WashingtOn, D C. U.S. Department of En-ergy, 1979) A good 1982 review of these goals and the meager chances'for attaining them ts U S. Congress, General Accounting Office, Proba-ble Impacts of Budget Reductions. The Japanese goals are described inMaycock, "My Fact Finding Tour It is assumed here that photovolta-ics operate on average at 20 percent of their rated capacity so that 1 .omegawatts of cells generates 1752 megawatt hours per yeir Moreoverit is assumed that 10.7 exaioules of primary energy (that is io. i quadsor 366 million tons of coal) is required to generate a billion megawatt,h4rs of electricity.

3+ ese estimates are the authors' and use the same energy conversionfactors toted in note 33.

Chapter 6 'Wood Crisis, Wood Renaissance

i For role of wood fuel and wastes in the Third World, see E M. Mnzava,"Fuelwood. The FInvate Energy Crisis of the Poor," Ceres, July/August198i. For a description of charcoal consumption in Third World, see

'.. j E.M. Arnold and Jules Jongma,_Tuelwood anciCharcoal in Develop-ing Conntries," Unasylva, Vol. 29, No. 118, 1978._

2. In areas with "acute scarcity" people suffer hardship from lack of fuel-wood. And in "deficit" areas the rate of fuelwood burning exceeds therate of regeneration. Figures are from United Nations (UN), Food andAgriculture Organization, "Report of the Technical Panel on Fuelwoodand Charcoal to the U.N. Conference on Ncw arid Renewable Sourcesof Energy," Nairobi, Kenya, August 1981. Information on electrificationin the Third World is from Douglas V. Smith, "Rural Electrification orVillage Energization?," lnterciencia, March/April 1980.

3. For an examination of the roots of wood fuel scarcity and eforestation,rsee Erik Eckholm, Losing Ground Environ ental S ress and WorldFood Prospects (New York: W.W. Norton & o., i )

4. Philip Wardk and MaSS11110 Palmieri, "What Does Fuelwood ReallyCost?," Unasylva, Vol. 33, No. 131; 1981.

5. E.M. Mnzava, "Village Industries vs. Savanna Forest," Unasylva, Vol.33, No 1.31., 1981. ,

6. K.S Salariyna, "Fuel Conservation in Domestic Consumption," pre-

357


sented to the First Conference of the Asia-Pacific Confederation ofChemical Engineers (APCCHE), Jakarta, November 21-23, 1978;Cyan Sagar, ''A Fuel-Efficient, Smokeless Stove for Rural India,"Appro-

Technology, September 198o; I.Evans and D. Wharton, "TheLore udstove A Wood-Conserving Cookstove," Appropriate Tech-nology, August 1977.

7. "Smoke in the Kitchen," Cookstove News, May 1981; Don Shikow,Cara Seiderrnan, and Philip O'Keefe, "Kenya's Lesson jri Conserva-tion," Soft Energy Notes, January/February 1982.

8 Bina Agarwal, The Wood Fuel Problem and the Diffusion of RuralInnovations, preliminary draft (Sussex University of Sussex, SciencePolicy Research Unit, October 198o; Dales V. Shaller, "Socio-dulturalAssessment of the Lorena Stove and Its Diffusion5cin HighlandGuatemala," Volunteers in Technical Assistance, unpublished, 2979.

9. H.E. Booth, "Realities of Making Charcoal," Unasylva, Vol. 33, No.131, 1984, D.E. Earl, Forestry, Energy and Economic Development(Oxford. Clarendon Press, 1975); E. Uhart, "The Wood Charcoal In-dustry in Africa," memorandum, African Forestry Commission, FourthSession,Bangui, Central African Republic, March 22-27, 1976.

o. For Brazil example, see World Environment Report, September .28,1981, for Sri Lanka example, see New Scientist, August 11, 1981.John U. Nef, "An Early Energy Crisis and Its Consequences," ScientificAmerican, November 1977, W.C. Youngquist: and H.O. Fleischer,'Wood in Anrerican Life z 776-.2o76 (Madison, Wisc.. Forest PioductsResearch' Society, 1977).

12. Energy Information Administration, Estimates of U.S. Wood EnergyConsumption. from 1949 to 1981 (Washington, D.C.. U.S. Departmentof Energy, August 1982); Colin High, "New England Returns toWood," Natural History, February 1980; Mark R. 'Bailey and Paul R.Wheeling, Wood and Energy in Vermont "(Washington, D.C.: U.S.Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, April 1982), H.Swain et al., "Canadian Renewable Energy,Prospeas," in Solar Energy(Oxford: Pergamon Press, 1979).

13 Kit prins, "Energy derived from Wood in Europe, the USSR, and NorthAmerica," Unasylva, Vol. 31, No. 123, 1979. An estimated 25 percentof all homes in the Soviet Union are heated with wood, see Leslie,Dienesand Theodore Shabad, The Soviet Energy System. Resource Use andPolicies (Washington, D.C.: V.H. Winston dc Sons, 1979).

14. William R Day and Kurt A. Schloth, "Development in WoodburningTechnology," RAIN, May 148 i, Fred Stiebeigh, "Hottest Stoves inAmeriea," Quest, December 980; and Peter Tonge, "This Could be

4

358

Notes (pages //3/ :7) -345

'Ultimate' VC'ood Stove," Chnstian Science Monitor; February 22, 1989.15 For a survey of the economics of wood energy use in the United States

by region, see William T Glidden, Jr., "Wood Energy Logs a Come-bad," Soft Energy Notes, September/October 1982, and David ATillman, Wood as an Energy Resource (New York. Academie Press,I97s)

16 Edwin well, "A Glow on Wood Furnaces," New York Times,.November ii, 1979

17 M. Allaby and J Lovelock, "Wood Stoves The Trendy Pollutant," NewScientist, November 13, 198o, Philip Shabecoff, "Wood Fires ArouseFear of Pollution," New York Times, December 13, 1981, StephenBudiansky, "Bioenergy The Lesson of Wood Burning," EnvironmentalScience and Technology, July 1980, and "Stoves Pollute Worse thanIndustry," CanadianRenewable Energy News, July 1981.

18 Elissa Krzeminski, 'The Catalytic Combuster," New Roots, January1982, Peter Tonge, "Wood Savings. Burn the Smoke, Too," Christian

= Science Monitor, January 28, 1981, Jon Vera "Woodburning. The Cata-lytic Combuster Cpmes of Age," Country Journal, Noyember 1982.

19. Jeff Nadherny, "A Surqy of Industrial Wood-Fired Boilers in NewEngland Analysis of Responses," Thayer School of Engineerrng, Dart-mouth College, Hanover, N H., February 1979:

20 Stephen Grover, " 'Jaws' Invades Forest-Products Industry as Use ofWood Waste Displaces Fuel, Oil," Wall Street Journal, August,12,1981, The Swedish Institute, "Forestry and Forest Industry in Sweden,"Stockholin, November.1980. For a description of FIRE program, see

--`Wnrld Solar Markets, June 1981:21. Jourdan Houston, "Industry (Re)Discovers Wood," Wood N' Energy,

April 1981.22 John Zerbe, "The Many Forms of Wood as Fuel,"American Forests,

October 1978, R. L. Berry, "An Ancient Fuel Provides Energy forModem Times," Chemical Engineering, April 21, 1980;

23. Jourdan Houkton, "Pelletized Fuels. The Emerging Industry, Wood N'Energy, January 1981.

24. Tom Reed and Tom Milne, "Biomass Gasification. New Approach toOld Technology, The SERI Journal, Spring 1981, "Wood GasifiersOffer Better Payback Than Any Other, Solar System, Backers Say," SolarEnergy Intelligence Report, January 18, 1982, National Research Coun-cil, Producer Cas. AnOther Fuel for Motor Transport (Washington,D C. National Acadelny Press, 1981), R Dal And G. Dutt, "ProducerGas Eng' es in Villages of Less-Developed Countries," Science, August14, l9.

859

346 No les (poetic 227-121)) ,

25. Robert Burgess, "POtential of Forest Fuels for Producing ElectricalEnergy," Journal of forestry, ivIarch 1978; Burlington Electric 'Depart"'ment; Wood Fired Electric Power,Ceneration:A New England Alterna-

tive (Burlington, Vt.. 1979); 2nd Michael Harris, "Can Burlington Turnon With Trees?.," Yankee Magazine, January 1979. .

26. Ministry of Energy, Ten-Year Energy Program, 1980-1989 (Manila,Republic of the Philippines. 198o),Iummarized in "CuriousIpil-Ipil theKey to Wood Fueled Power Plants," Christian Science Monitor, Sep-tember 18, 1980:

27. R. Powell and A. Hokanson, "Methanol from Wood: A Critical Assess-ment," in Sarkanen and Tillman, ed., Progress in Biomass Conversion{New York. Academic Press4i79); and D. L Hagen, "Methanol: ItsSynthesis, Use as 2 Fuel, EcokmiCs ana Hazards," U.S. Department ofCommerce, Washington, D.C., December 1976.

28. Description of methanOl technology is from E.0 Baker, DJ Stevens,and D.A. Easkin, "Assessment of the Technoloiy for Producing Mobil-ity Fuels from Wood,4 Battelle Lal;oratories, Columbus, Ohio; Febru-ary 19to, and A. Hokanson and R. Powell, "Methanol from WoodWaste A Technical and Economic Study," Forest Service, U.S. Depart-ment of Agriculture, Washington, 1977.

29. U.S. Congress, Office of Technology Assessment, Energy from Biologi-

cal Processes, Vol. ll (Washington, D.C.: September 1980).30. "Brazil Out to Show Methanol Crows on Trees," Chemical Week,

. March 14, 1979, "Direct Wood Casikcation Methdd Seen Leiiding toMethanol Production in.Brazil,"Sol'iir Energy Intelligence Report, Oc-tOlier. 13, 198o, "Biomass Gasifier beveloped at SERI Converts 6o%Wood Feed to Methanol " Sot& Times; October 1981,

*31. , Ken R. Stamper, "5o,00o Mile Methanol/Casoline Blend 'leet StudyA Progress Report" (Spnngfield, Va.. NationalTechnical InformationService, 1979), 3. Finegold et al., "Demonstration of Dissociated Me-

_ thanol as 27) Antomotive Fuel: System 2,erfoniiance," Solar EnergyResearchlfistitute, Golden, Colo., April 1981.

32. "Methanol Fuelid Car," World Solar Markets, October 1981; Joseph. C. Finegold, J. Thomas McKinnon, and Michael E. Karpak, "Decom-

posing Methanol As Consumable Hydride for Automobiles and Gas Tur-

, bines," Solar Energy Research Institute, GoldenCol9., Marth 1982.3. The Canadian study is summarized in Peter LciVe and Ralph overend,

Tree Power: An Assessthent of the Energy Potential of Forest Biomosin Canada (Ottawa. Ministry of Energy, Mines and Resources, 1978),

and,"Major Study ginds Enormous Potential in Canadian Biomass,"Soft Energy Notes, October i 978.

s

360


34 The optimal scaling of plants is discussed in ps Congress, Office of. Technology Assessment, Energy from Biological Processes. Interna-

tional Harvester's plans are described in David F Salisbury, "Methanol.Ready to Muscle Its Way Into U S. Gas Tanks'," Christian ScienceMonitor, March io, 1982-

35 Charles E Hewett and Co lig J High, Construction and' Operation ofSmall, Dispersed, Wood-fired Power Plants, (Hanover, N.H.. ThayerSchool of engineering, Resource Policy Center, September 1.978). ,

36 Maureen Robb, "Produeer-User Pacts Held Vital to Methanol FuelDevelopment," Journal of Commerce, March 3 1982.

37 For overall world (orestry trends, see Council on Environmental Quality2nd U S Department of State, The Global 2 000 Report to the President(Washington, DC. US Government Printing Office, 1980), R. Nighand J Nations, "tiOpical Rainforests,",Bulletirt of the Atomic Scientists,March 1980, Norman Myers, "The Present Status andFuture Prospfectsof. Tropical Moist Forests," Environmental COnservation, Summer198o, Smith,- Wood. An' Ancient Fuel with a Bright Future. For anexample of eMerging plan's to harvest energy from tropical rain forests,see "Brazil's CNE.Considels Deforestation Plan," Latin American En-ergy Report, April 1981.

38 For an assc:ssment of the prospects for forestry in northern regions see-John Hanrahan and Peter Cruenstein, Lost Frontier. The Marketing ofAlaska (New York: W.W. Norton %St Co , 1977),.e

39 U S Congress, Office of Technology Assessment, Energy from Biologi-cal Processes.

40 For discussion of the ecological implications of energy plantations and-intensive silviculture, see', Carlilse and I. Methven, "The Environmen-tal Consequences of Intensive Forestry and the Removal Of WholeTrees," in Stephen C Boyce,_ed.,Biological and Sociological Basis fora Rational _Use of Forest Resources for Energy and Organics, prdceed-ings of an International Workshop, Michigan State University, EastLansing, -Mich., May 6-11, 1979 (Asheville, N.C.: Forest Service, U.S.Department of Agriculture, 1979), Carl F. Jord'an, "The EnvironmentalConsequences of Intensive Forestry and the Removal of Whole Treesfrom Forests The Situation in Latin America," in Boyce, ed., Biologicaland Sociological Basis for ir Rational Use.of Forest Resou'rces, C. E.'Likens et'al , "Recovery of a Deforested Ecosystem," Science, February3;1978, David Pimentel et al., "Biomass Energy from Crop and ForestResidues," Science, June 5, 1981.

41, Ibid.4. Ibid

36,1

-

348 Notes (pages .124-128)

43- Steven Price, "You Don't Need Trees. to Make Paper," New Yorkeptember 13, 1981, Danyorgan4Theyorests of Tomorrow,"

Washington Pos4 Novemlier 21, 1977.;*4+ Sven 13jork 2nd Wilhelm Graneli, -"Energy Needs and the Environ:

ment," Ambio, Vol, 7, No. 4, 1978.47 Henry, "The Silvicultural EnergyFarm in Perspective," in Sarkanen trid frillpian, eds., Progress in Bio-mass Conversion. 1' I

45. For Eucalyptus Forestry, see B. KnOWlanciand C. Ulinski, TraditionalFuels. Present Data, Past Experience and Possible Strategies (Washing-ton, Ile.. Agency for International Development, 1979), ana NationalAcademy of Sciences, Firewood Crops. Shrub and Trce Species for En-ergy Production (Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press, 1980)..

48.-Nat1ona1 Academy of Sciences, Leucaena. Promising Forage and TreeCrops for the Tropics (Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press,

1977).47. For an excellent review of the literature -on the impacts .of intensive

forestry practice; see Joseph F Coates, Henry H. 'Hitchcock and Lisa .

Heinz, Environitiental Consecluences of Wood and Other BiomassSources of Energy, EPA-600/8-82.017 (Washington, D.C.; U.S. Envi-ronmental Protection Agency, April 1982).

48. Helmut Sick, "Ayes Brasikiras Ameagadas de Extincio e Nocbes Geraisde Conservacio no Brazil," in Simposio Sobre Conservacio de Naturezae Restaurapio do Ambiente Natural do Homem, Rio de Janeiro, 1979;David Pimentel et al., "Energy from Forests Environmental and Wild-life Implications," Interciencia, September/October 1981.

49. For an overview of ,social forestry, see Erik Eckholm, Planting for theFuture. Forestry for Human Needs, Worldwatch Paper'26 (Washington,D.C.. Worldwatch Institute, February; 1979); B. Knowlapd arid C. Ulin-ski, Traditional Fuels. Present Data, Past Experience and Possible Strate-gies (Washington, D.C.. Agency for International Development, 1979)For a country-by-country survey of social forestry, see-Forest ProductsLaboratory, U.S. Forest Service, Forestry Activities and DeforestationProblems in Developing Countries (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Govern-ment Printing Office, 1980).

50. B. Ben Salem 2nd Iran Nan Vao, "Fuelwood Production in TraditionalFirming Systems," Unasylvri, Voi. 33, No. 131, 01; David Spurgeon,"Agroforestry. A New Life for Farmland," Christian Science Monitor, .February 13, 1980.

51. jamt3 W. Howe and Frances A. Gulick, "Fuelwood and Other Renew- .

able Energies iniAfrica. A Progress Report on the Problem and theResponse,* Overseas Development Council, Washington, D.C., 198o2

. .

62

Notesyp2ges 128-130) . 349

52 Descriptions of China's community forestry efforts 2re provided in Foodand Agriculture Organization, Forestry Department, Forestry for bocalCommunity Development '(Rome. Food and Agriculture Organization,1480), see also jack,C. Westoby, "Making Trees Serve people," Com-monwealth Forestry Review, Vol. 54, Nos. 3/4, 1975. Estimates of new

. forest area from Reidar Pierson, "Need for a Continuous Assessment,"'and "Surr1imary Report," FAO/Nepal Study Tour on ,Multiple UseMountain Forestry to the People's Republic of China, November 26-December 1, 1978, unpublished, Rome, undated, "The Green Wall ofChina," Deelopment Forum, July/August 1981 A more pessimisticassessmentjs contained in reports by Vaclav Smil to the World Banksummanzea-M Libby Bassett, "Special Report. China's Ecosystems areDeteriorating Rapidty," 1X'orld Environment Report, May 30, 1982, andBayard Webster, 'China's Progress Hurting Land," New York Times,.October 3, 1982.

53 For South Korean social forestry, see Eckholm, Planting for the Future.54. John Madeley, "The Trees of Life," Development Forum, July/August

1981, Modhumita Mojumdar, "India's Lost Woodlands," Christian Sci-

ewe Monitor, September 9, 1981, "Indian 'Social Forestry Study FindsPoor are Not .Helped," World Environment RePort, November 14,1981, "Forests for Fuels," Science, Today, October 1981:Gunnar Poul-sen, Man and Trees in Tropical Africa, Publication No. I.:me (Ottawa.International Development Researcher Cent4, 1978), "Tanzania'sTree Planting Campaign Called a Success," World Environment Re-port, November-15, 1981.

55. An excellent discussion of the social and cultural factors in communityforestryeln be found in Raymond Noronha, "Why Is It So Difficult toGrow Fuelwood," Unasylva, Vol.-33, No. 131, 1981. .

56. Agency for International Development, The SocioiEconomic Context ofFuelwood Use in Small Rural Communities, Evaluation Special StudyNo. 1 (Washington, D C.. August 1980), Eckholm, Planting for theFuture.

57. India's new social forestry goak are described in 'Faced with HugeFuelwood Loss, India, Pushes Social Forestry," World Environment Re-port, July 20, 1981. Some of the limitations on social forestry in Indiaare described m Vandana Shiva, H.0 Sharatehandra, and J Bandyopad-hyay, "Social Forestry-No Solution within the Market," kcologist, Au-gust 1982. '

58. "Review of World Bank Financed Forestry Activity, FY 8o,". WorldBank, Washington, D.C., June 1980, John Spears, Forestry Advisor,World Bank, "Overcoming Constraints to Increased Investment in For-'

363

v

350 Notes (pages uo-133)

estry,", presented to the 1 ith Commonwealth Forestry Conferenee,Trinidad, September 1980. .

59. Maurice Strong and Mahbub ul Haq, The Castel Gandolfo Report onReneWable Energy. Policies and Options, presented to the North-SouthRoundtable Seminar at the United Nations Conference on New andRenewable Sources of Energy, Nairobi, Kenya, August 10-21, 1981.

6o. "Deforestation in Himalayan Regioh Cause ot India's Worsi Flood,"World Environment Report; November 6, 1978; James Ste'rba, "Chi-nese Say Deforestation Caused Flood Damage-in Sichuan," New YorkTimes,- August 22, 1981, Richard Pascoe, "Flooding ,Blamed oil Defore-station'," Washington Post, September 2, 1981. , .

61. Solar Energy Research Institute, A New ProsPerity. Building a Renew-able Future (Andover, Miss.: Brick House, 1981); Marion Clawson, TheEconomics of,U,S. Nonindustrial Private Forests (Washington, D.C..',-Resourcesjor the Future, 14793. . . . -

62. Forestry cooperatives are described inliobert Kilborn, Jr., "Giant ForestCompanies Help SnA Landowners Harvest Their Trees," ChristianScience Monitor, -November 24, 1981; Chris Wood, "Nova Scotia En-tiees private Woodlot Owners to Sell Trees for Fuel," Canadian Renew-able- Energy News, December 1980, Clayton Jones, "Timberman SeesLand of Dixie as Future 'Wood Basket' of the World," Chriltian Sci-ence Monitor, May ii, 1981. .

63. thristopher H. Holmes, An Analysis of the New England Pilot Fuel-wood Project, (Washington, D.0 , U.S. Department of Agriculture,Forest Service, October 1980), John Forber, "Helping the Small Woo-dlot Owner," Country Journal, January 1982.

64. These figures ire the authors' estimates!65. William W. Kellogg and R"obert SchWare, Climate Change and Society

(Boulder, Colo.. WestvieW Presi,..1981); DobScroggin and Robert 'Kar-ns, "Reduction at the Source," Technology Review, November/Decem-ber 1981, Freeinan J. Dyson, "Can We Control the Carbon Dioxide inthe Afrnosphere?," Energy, Vol.. 2 (New York. Pergamon Press, 1977);Freeman Dyson and Gregg Moorland, "Technical Fixes for the Cli-matic Effects of CO2," in Works-hop on the Global Effects of CarbonDioxide from Fossil Fuels, March 7-11,1977 (Washington, D.C. U.S.Department of Energy, 19793..

66. Amulya K.N. Reddy, "Alternative Energy.Policies for Developing Coun-tries. A Case Study of India," in Robert A. Bohm, Lillian A. Clinard,2nd Mary R. English, eds., World Energy Production and Productivity,Proceedings of the International Energy Symposium I, October 14,1980 (Cambridge, MaSS.. Ballinger, 1985); summarized in Amuly.2

364

-: -

-

Notes (pages 135-140) - 351

,

Reddy, "lndia-A-A,Good Life Wjthout Dil,;New Scientitt,. Jiily 9, 1981.67. Subsidies for nuclear power are descnbed-iiihaftelk Memorial institute,

An Analysis of Federal Incentivei Used to Stimulate Enepgy Production(Richland, Wash.: 1978).

Chapter 7. Growing Fuels: Energy from Crops and Waste

1 Material on overview of photounthetic 4nergy sources is found in AlanD. Poole and Robert H Williams, "Flower Power. PrOspects for Photo-synthetic Energy," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists:Nay 1976.

2. A survey of current akohol fuels activities is Bill Kovarilc, "Third WorldFuel Alcohol Push Sgows-Mixed Results(" Renewable Energy News,-September 1982.

3, For historical use.of alcohol fuels, see Cilarles A.. StOkes 2nd Gale D.Waterland, "Alcohols. The Old New Fuels," Technology ReYiew, July1981, Hall Bernton, William Kovarits, ScOtt Sklar, The Forbidden Fuel.Power Alcohol in the Twentieth Century (New York:. Boyd Griffin,1982), and August W Giebelhatis, "Resiganee to:Long-Term EnergyTransition. The Case of'Power Alcohol in. the 1930's," in Lewis J.Perelman, August W. Giebelhaus and Michael D. Yokell, eds., EnergyTransitions (Washington, D.C. American Academy for the Advance-ment of Science, -1981). .

4. Foi a description of alcohol technology, see U.S. Congress, Office_ ofTechnology Assessment, Casohok A Technical Memorandum (Wash-ington, D. C.: September 1979).

5. The net energy balance of alcohol is discussed in U.S. Department ofEnergy, Report of the Alcohol Fuels Policy Review (Washington, D.C.June 1979), U.S. National Alcohol Fuels Commission, Fuel Alcohol: AnEnergy Alternative for the 1980's (Washington, D.C,. 1981); andl. G.DaSilva et al., "Energy Balance for Ethyl Alcohdi from Crops," Science,September 8, 1978.

6. Frederick F. Hartline, "Lower'ing the Cost of Alcohol,", Science, Octo-ber 5, 1979; M. Ladisck and K. Dyck, "Dehydration of Ethanol: NewApproach Gives Positive Energy Balance," Science, August 31, 1979;Meg Cox, "Researchers Accelerate Search for Way to Use EnergY inMaking Oasohol," Wall Street Journal, Januar}, 31, 1980, 2nd StewartWallace, "Tropical .Bacterium May Halve Fermentation Costs," Cana-dian Renewable Energy News, October 1981.

7. "New Process Provides Key to Low-COst Fuel Alcohol," Journal ofCommerce, March 24, 1980; M.R. Ladisch et al., "Cellulose to Sugars:New Path Gives Quantitative Yield," Science, September 21, 1978.

365

3S2 Notes (p4es 140-145)

8 Cissy Wallace, "Brazilian National Alcohol Program," Soft EnergyNotes,, July 1979; Leon G. Mears, "The BtazAlian ExPeriment," Envi-ronmenk December 1978; Leon G. Mears, "Brazil's Agricultural Pro-gram Moving Ahead," Foreign- Agriculture, July 17, 1978; WarrenHoge,-"Brazil's Shift to Alcohol as Fuel," New York Times, October 13,1980.

9. World Bank, Alcohol Production from Biomass. in Developing Coun-tries, September 1980. World Bank, World Development'Report 1979(Washington, D.C.:_ 1979).

ro. World Bank, BraziL Human Resources Special Report ,(Washington,D.C.. 1979),.Kenneth Freed, "Brazil's Dram of Cheap Fuel is RunningOut of Gas," Los Angeles 7imes, December zo, 1981; Lester R. Brown,Food or Fuel. New Competition for the World's Cropland (Washington,

WOrldwatch Institute, March 198o). .

1. "Gisohol Plani Face Problems," World Business Wiekly, January 19,1981; "Alcohol Fuels Hit a Rocky Road," World Business Weekly, July6, 1981.

12. John Madeley, "Ethanol Production Runs into Environmental Difficul-

ties," Mazingira, Vol. 5/3, 1981.13. Madeley, "Ethanol Production"; Kenneth Freed, "Brazil's Dream of

Cheap Fuel is. Running Out of Gas."'14. "Carter Lays Out Multi-Billion Dollar Plan for Gasohol," Solar EnergY

Intelligence Report, January 14, 1980; "Biomass 2nd Alcohol Fuels inthe Energy, Security Act," Solar Energy Law Reporter, November/December 1980, G. Alan -Petzet, "Alcohol Blends 'Claim Small butRising Sha're of U.S. Motor Fuel Marlet," Oil and Cas Journal, Septem-ber 6,-1981.

15 Earl Butz, "U.S. Farmers Mount Gasohol Bandwagon," Journal ofCommerce, November 14; 1979, U.S. Congress, Office of TechnologyAssessment, Energy from Biological Processes (Washington, D.C.:1980).

16. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Small-Scale Fuel Alcohol Production(Washington, D.C.: March 1980); "Big Awards Go to Big Business,"Biofuels Report, June 8, 1981.

17 . Fred Sanderson, "The Cligh Cost of Gasohol," Resources (Washington,D.C.: Resources for the Future, Jirly 1981).

18. "The. Gasohol Boom Dries Up," Business Week, March 3o, 1981; .

Douglas Martin, "Budget Cuts, Weak Market Hurt Gasohol," New:York Times, December 14, 198r.

19. T. J. Goering, "R.Oot Crops: Potential for Food and gnergy," Fir;anceand Development, JUne 1980; "Pilot Alcohol Distillery Using Manioc

366 .


Nearing Break-Even Point," Solar Energy Intelligence Report, May1981, Richard A. Nathan, Fuels from Sugar Crops (Washington, D.0Battelle institute for U.S Department of Energy, 1978).

zo G. Stewart, W RawlIns, and R Quick, "Oilseeds as a RenewableSourceof Diesel Fuel," Search, May 1981, p. D. Hall, G W Barnard, and P AMoss, Biomass for Energy in the Developing Countnes (Oxford Perga-mon Press, 1982).

21 Joseph Bonney, "Substitutes for Diesel Sought in Brazil," Journal ofComm6rce, November 30, 1979, George Hawrylyshyn, "Diesel NextTarget of Brazil Liquid Fuels Program," Canadian Renewable EnergyNM, April 1981.

22 Cary le Murphy, "South Africa's Quest for Energy Leads to Sunflowers,"Washington Post, August 29, 1979, "Sunflower Oil as a Fuel Alterna-tive," North Dakota State University, undated; David Hall, "Put aSunflower in Your Tank," New Scientist, February 26, 1981.

23 Andy McCue, "Fihpino's Cocodiesel is Fueling Vehicles and Buoying

-Price of Coconut Oil Crop," Wall Street Journal, May 28, 1981.24. U.S Congress, Office of Technology Assessment, Energy from Biologi-

cal Processes.25. Jack Johnson quoted in Bill Paul, "On the Arid Plainsof the Southwest,

Gopherweed Grows as Energy Hope," Wall Street Journal, August 27,1980, see also Melvin Calvin, "Petroleum Plantations," in Hautala, ed.,Solar Energy Chemical Conversion and Storage (Clifton, N J TheHumana Press, 1979), John Noble Wilford, "Agriculture Meets theDesert on iti Own Terms," New York Times, January 15, 1980; JackJohnson and C. Wiley Hinnian, "Oils and Rubber from Arid LandPlants," Science, May 2, 1980.

26. Tire classic work in temperate-zone agro-forestry was originally pub-lished in 1929 but is still relevant today See Russel J Smith, Tree CropsA Permanent Agriculture (New York: Harper & Row, 1978).

27 B. Wolverton and R.C. McDonald, "The Water Hyacinth. Prom Pro-lific Pest to Potential Provider," Ambio, Vol. 8, No. 1, 1979; "Aquatic

- Plants Clean Wastewater Lagoons," World Water, September 1980 BWolverton and R C. McDonald, "Taking Advantage of the WaterHyacinth," Water Power and Dam Construction, July 1979, B Wolver-ton and R.C. McDonald, "Don't Waste Waterweeds," New Scientist,August 12, 1976; W. J. North, "Giant Kelp: Sequoias of the Sea,"National Ceographic, No. 142, 1972, "Seaiveed is. Studied as Source ofNatural Gas," New York Times, September zo, 1981, U.S Congress,Office of Technology Assessment, Energy from Open Ocean Kelp Farm(Washington, D.C.: September 1980) .

36 7

354 Notes !pages 148-152)

28. Norman Myers, The Sinking Ark (Oxford: Pergamon Press, 1979); Na-tional Academy of Sciences, Firewood Crops: Shrub and Tree Species forEnergy Production (Washington, D.C.: 1980).

29. Ward Sinclair, " 'Merlins' of Corn Improve Yields Dramatically,"Washington Post, June 9, 1981.

30. U S. Congress, Office of Technology Assessment, Impacts of AppliedGenetics on Micro-Organisms, Plants and Animals (Washington, D.C..1981); Harold M. Schmeck, Jr., "Gene-Splicing is Said to be Key toFuture Agricultural Advances," New York Times, May zo, 1981.

31 "Report of the Ad Hoc Group on Rural Energy, Including the Utiliza,tion of Energy in Agriculture," prepared for the United Nations Confer-

, ence on New and Renewable Sources of Energy, Nairobi, Kenya, August10-21, 1981.

32 Joy Dunkerly, "Patterns of Energy Consumption by Rural and UrbanPoor in Developing Countries," Natural Resources Forum, November4, 1979.

33 Andrcw Barnett, Leo Pyle, and S K. Subramanian, Biogas Technologyin the Third World. A Multidisciplinary Review (Ottawa. InternationalDevelopment Research Centre, 1978), National Academy of Sciences,Methane Generation for Human, Animal and Agricultural. Wastes, re-port of an Ad Hoc Panel of the Advisory Committee on TechnologyInnovation '(Washington, D.C. 1977).

34. V V. Bhatt, "The Development Problem, Strategh 2nd TeChnologyChoice, Sarvalaya 2nd Socialist Approaches in India," in Long, Oleson,eds., Appropriate Technology and Social Values. A Critical Appraisal(Cambridge, MaSS.: Ballinger, 1980).

35 S.K. Subramanian, "Biogas Systems and Sa'nitation in Developing Coun-tries," presented to conference on Sanitation in Developing CountriesToday, sponsored by Oxfam, Pembroke College, Oxford, July 19n.

36. Edgar J. Da 81.16, "Biogas: Fuel of the Future?," Arribio, No. 1, 1980.Peter Hayes and Charles 1"..kucher, "Community Biogas in India," SoftEnergy Notes, April 198o; Jyoti K. Parikh and Kirit Parikh, "Mbbiliza-tion and Impacts of Bio-gas Technologies," Energy, Vol. 2,.1977.

38. VaCial/ Smil, "Energy Solution in China," Environment, October 1977,Food and Agriculture Organization, "China; Recycling of OrganicWastes in Agriculture," FAO Soils Bulletin 40, 1977. Smiles recent

.. doubts 2re expressed in Vaclav Smil, "Chinese Biogas Program Sput-.tem," Soft Energy Notes, July/August 1982.

39 Ibid,40. kR. Srinivasan, "Biogas Development in India," Mazingira, August

1981.

'368


4) Anne van Buren, "Biogas Beyond China," Ambio, 1980, "Incjia Plansto Build Millions of Villagetiogas Mints," World Environment Report,September 14, 1981, "Biogas Powered Piggery in the Philippines,' SoftEnergy Noteskugust 1978, "Brazil Plans Blogas Generator InstallationThroughout.Country," Latin American Energy Report, May 21, 1981.

42 "When the Chips are Down ," Soft Energy Notes, December/Janu-ary 1981

43 A G Hashimotd, Y.R Chen, 2nd R.L. Prior, "Methane 2nd P teinfrom Animal Feedlot Wastes," Journal of Soil and Water Conservation,January/February 1979.

44. U S Department of Energy, Report of the Alcohol Fuels Policy Review(Washington, D.C. June1979).

45 Wendy Peters, "High-Growth Eucalyptus Offers Island Energy," Cana-dian Renewable Energy News, ,May 1981, "Costa Rica. New Plans toCut the Oil Bill," World Business Weekly, January 19, 1981, Jawahar-halrBaguant, "Electricity from the Sugar Cane Industry in Nicaragua,"Inykiencia, March/April 1981, "High Potential for Ethanol fromWhey Seen for Several Areas of New YOrk State," Solar Energy. Intelli-gence Report, May 4, 1981

46 U S. Congress, Office of Technology Assessment, Materials and Energyfrom Municipal Waste (Washington, D.C.: 1979).

47 James Sterba, "Garbage Into Energy. Now a Seller's Market," New YorkTimes, May 16, 1978.

48 Neil Seldman and Jon Huls, ''Beyond the Throwaway Ethic," Environ?'ment, November 1981.

49. "Worldwide Inventory of Waste-to-Ene/gy Systems," in Refuse-FirdEnergy Systems in Europe An Evaluation of Design Practices (Was ng-ton, DC US Environmental Protection Agency, November 1979),"Recycling," World Environment R9port, November 17, 1980, GaryYerkey, "Denmark Saves on Energy'with Waste Energy," ChristianScience Monitor, June 15, 1981.

5o U S EnvirOnmental Protection Agency, Refuse-Fired Energy Systems inEurope. An Evaluation of Design Practices (Washington, D.0 Novem-ber 1979, Susan Train, "Municipal Waste. An Energy Source forEurope," Energy International, Not,ernber/December 198o

51 Council on Environmental Quality, "Municipal Solid Waste," in Envi-ronmental Quality, the Tenth Annual Report of the Council on Environ-mental Quality (Washington, D C, 1979), Jerry Knight; "Saugus,Mass.. Not Enough gefuse for Plant to Operate at Capacity," Washing-ton Post, August 19, 1979, Robert Kaiser, "New England Plant TurnsTrash to Energy," New York Times, October 27, 1979.

3 6 9

356 Notes (pages 156-164

52. Frances Cerra, "Garbage-to-Ftiel Recycling in U.S. Moves Slowly,Mixed in Problems," New York Times, August i 9, 1980; CongressionalResearch Service, Status Report on Resource Recovery Facilities (Wash-ington, D.C.. Committee on Science and Technology, U.S. House ofRepresentatives, 1979).

53. Bill Peterson, "Baltimore's Trash Plant is Costly Failure," WashingtonPost, March 20, 1977.

54. Jane Rochman, "Trash Power: A Worthy Notion that Doesn't YetPay," New York Times, November 11, 1979, Council on EnyironmentalQuality,'Environmental Quality, the Tenth Annual Report.

55. U.S. Congress, Office of Technology Assessment, "Resource Recoveryfrom Municipal Solid Waste," in An Assessment of Technology forLocal Development (Washington, D.C.: January 1981); "RecyclersCharge Energy Department with Acting at Cross Purposes," Journal ofCommerce, March 25, 1981,

56. Christopher Dickey, "Burning Refuse Dumps Chokes Mexico City,Arouses Ragpickers' Ire," Washington Post, April 12, 1981; John Vo-gler, Work from Waste. Recycling Wastes to Create Employment (Lon-don. Intermediate Technology Publications and Oxfam, 1981); S.V.Sethuraman, ed., The Urban Informal Sector in Developing Countries:Employment, Poverty and Environment, World Employment Pro-gramme Research Study (Geneva. International Labour Organization,1981); and Daphne Miller, "Making Waste Less Wasteful," Develop-ment Forum, July/August 1982.

57. James Barron, "Ggrbage is Garbage, Burning it for Energy is Difficult,"New York Times, August 2, 1981.

58. "Getty Bullish on Refuse," Biofuels Report, October 5, 1981; "GettySays U.S. Ruins 'Garbage' Gas Business," Wall Street Journal, February23, 1981.

59. "Delhi Gas Project," World Environment Report,' October 17, 1981.

William Dietrich, "Sewage Plants Clean Up," Soft Energy Notes, Feb-ry/March 1981.

6o. Vaclav Smil, China's Energy. Achievements, Problems, Prospects (NewYork: Praeger, 1976). The projections are the authors' estimates.

61.. David Pimentel and Marcia Pimentel, Food, Energy and Society (NewYork: John Wiley &Sons, 1979); D.O. Hall, G.W. Barnard, and P.A.Moss, Biomass for Energy in the Developing Couritriis (Oxford: Perga-mon Press, 1982); David Pimentel et al., "Biomass Energy from Cropand Forest Residues," Science, June 5, 1981.

63. Art Candell and Libby Bassett, "Washington, D.C., Sewage SludgeMay Green Haitian Plantation," World Environment Report, Septem-

370

-

/ Notes (pages r6a-r67) 357

ber 14, 1981, Joanne Omang, "ti.S FaCts the Problem of Disposing theUndisposable," Washington Post, March 14, 1980; Joanne Omang,"Maryland Trying to Squeeze Usable Energy from Waste," WashingtonPost, November I I, 1977.

Chapter 8. Niers of Energy1 For contribution of various energy sources on a counfry-by-country basis;

see United Nations (UN), DeVartment of International Economic andSocial Affairs, Statistical Office, 1979 Yearbook of World Energy Statis-

: 'tics (New York:41981). ,

2 For history of hydropower, ste Nornian A. F. Smith, "Water Power,"History Today, March .1980, and Norman A. F.5mith, Man and Water.A J-listory of Hy-dro-Technoloiry (London. Peter DaviCs, I o75). L.

- Sprague DeCamp, The Ancient Engineers (Newlroik. Doubleday &Co , 1963), Antipater quoted in Encyclopedia Britannica, 15th ed., s.v."Hydra-Power."For discussion of social conflict in medieval France, see Jean. Cimpel,

, The Medieval Mackine The Indus 1 Revolution of the Middle' Ages(New York. Holt, Rinehart & Win on, 1976), Kathleen Earley, "WhenAmerica Ran on W2 " The anus, December 1975.

' 4 Norman Smith, "The Origins of the Water Turbine," Scientific Amen-can, January 198p, Harold, I. Sharlin, The Making of the Electrical Age(New York: Abelard-Schuman, 43).

'5 For trends in hydropower deyelopment, see Louis H. Klotz, "WaterPower, Its Promises 2nd Problems," in Louis H. Klotz, ed., EnergySources. The Promiges and Problems (Durham, N.H . Center for,Indus-trial and [nstitutional Development, University of New Hampshire,1980) ' .

6 R. S Kirby et al , Engineering in History (New York. M raw-Hill, Inc.,1956) Recent attempts at revival are discussed in " Water Wheel"Makes a Return for Power Genera Holt," Chilton's Energy, August Milo,beorge Si Erskine, "A Future for Hydropower," Environnjent, March.1978, YYonne Howell, "New Straight-Flow Turbine," Sunworld, Febru-.ary 1977. -

7 World Energy Conference, Survey of Energy Resources, 1980,. (Munich.... I980). '

8. Ibid..

9 Lars Kristoferson, "WaterpowerA Short Overview," Ambio, Vol. 6,Na 1, 1977 For a survey of world water resburces by region, see Worl$1En&gy Conference, Survey of EnerWesources, 1974 (Munich. 1975).

. ..

,

358 Notes (p:iges 167:470)

10. "Tens of Thousands of MWs of New Hydro-Generating CapacityP6nned for Siberia," Energy in Countries with PlarenalSconomies,January 1981, "Africa Could Install 15,000-MW Hydro Capacity in198os," World WSkr, August 198o; Ronald Antonio, "WesternVenezuela Focus on Major Hydro Development," Modern Power Sys-pms, September 1981, "Harnessing Energy'in the Amazon," Engineer-mg News Record, July io, 1980, Kenneth Adelman "Energy in Zaire,"

Africa Today, October/December 1976.11. "Report of the. Technical Panel on Hydropower," prepared for the

United Nations Conference on New and Renewable Sources of Energy,Nairobi, Kenya, August 10-21, 1981; Denis Hayes, Rays of Hope TheTransition...to a Post-Petroleum World (New fork: W. W. Norton &

CO, 10'7).,

12. Richard Lawrence, "Energy Self-Sufficiency Seen for Latins," journal ofCoMmerce, September 15, 198o; United Nations, ion Yearbook.Ghana, Norway and Zambia receive 99 percent of their electricity from,hydropower. portugal, New Zealand, NePal and Switzerland, three-fourths; Austria and Caliada;Avio-thirds. .

13. E. Fels and R. Keller, "World Register of Mail-Made Lakes," in Wil-liam Ackermann =et al., eds.; Man-Made Lakes: Their Pr6blems andEnvironmental Effects (Washington, D.C.: American GeophysicalUnion, 1973); T. W. Mermel, "Major Dams of the World," WatetPower and Darn Construction, Novenilier 1979. ,

14. Information on China is from "A hydroelectric Bonanza," EnergyDaily, December 12, i980.'"Egypt Planning Vast Desert Hydroelectric. Project:: New York Times, March 28, 1981, Philip R \Micklin,."Sovief .Plans to Reverse the Flow of Rivers: The KoMa-V9chegda-PechoriProject," Canadian Geographer, Vol. 18, A. 3, 1,969; R. Bart!, Powerfrom Glacips. The Hydropower Potential of Greenland's Gladial Waters(Laxenburg, Austria. International Institute for' Applie&Systems An2ly-

Si; November i977).25. Information on the establishment and history of the TVA is from PhiliP

SelznickTVA and the Grass Roots (New York: Harper TlIrchbooks,

1966), "Hydroelectric 2nd Electric Power," in Robert Engler,.ed., Amer-ice's Energy Reports from the Nation ori zoo Years of Struggles for the

Democratic Control .of Our Resouices (New. York: Pantheon Books,

1980), and Read A. Elliott, "The TVA Experience: 1933,-2971," inAckermann, Man-Made Lakes.

16. For ongoing hydro projects in :chird World countries, see G V Ecken-

(elder, "Hydro Power Plants in Nigeria," Energy International, July

1977, Jonithan Kandell, "Iaipu Dam: Brazil's Giant Step," New York

3


Timms, Septembei 64 1976, Clayton Jones, "Harnessing Sn Lanka'sNile," Christian Science Monitor, MAy 6: 1982 .

17 htvan Kovics and Liszló David, "Joint Use of International Water' Resources," Anikio, Vol. 6, No 1, 197, United Nations, Register of

International Rivers (New york: Pergamon Press, 1978).18 "Newfoundland Hydroelectric Plans Stalled," Journal of Cgmnierce,

December 18, 1980, Newfoundland situation is also disctissid i'n Henrybimger, "A Dispute on Power Escalates," New York. Times, November22, 1980 John Bardack, "Some Ecological Implications of MekongRiver Development Plans," in M.. T. ParvaT and J. P. Milton, eds.,_TheCarless Technology Ecology.and International DevelopMent (G'arden

City, N Y Natural History Press, 1972); Ann Crittenden:- "Aid BankWeighs Disputed Guyana Project," New York Times, Octobv 30, 1980,Peter Crabb, "There Is More to Canada's Constitutional Problems thanAlbertan Oil," Energy Policy, December 1981, Aryeh Wolmarn "Israel,Jordan in Hydro Conflict," Renewable Energy News, October 1981.

19, Story bf Nile's development from John Waterbury, Hydropolitics of theNile Valley (Syracuse, N.Y : Syracuse University Press, 1980).

20 A A Abul-Ata, "After Aswan," Mazingira, Vol. 7, No. 11, 1979, J. N.. Goodsell, "Power Grid Generates a Million Jobs ip a Miff Brazilian

Wasteland," Christian Science Monitor, March 24, 1981 "Energy'Pro-MeV Brazil," Energy International, September 1976, Eric Jeffs, "Hydro

, to be Main Source for Venezuela," Energy International, June 1980,Ministry of Energy, Ten-Year Energy Program 1980-11989 (Metro Ma-nila, Philippines 1980).

21 Henry Kamm, "Dam Project Yrings, Little Gain for Sumatra's Pfleople;"New York Times, October 2, 1980, for Zaire, see Jay Ross; "A Tale.ofTwo Projects. One Winner, One Loser," Washington Post, April 25,1982

22 For 2 general discussion of environmental changes caused by large dams,see Ackermann, Man-Made Lakes.

23. "Washing China's Wealth Out to Sea," Technology Review, 9ctober1980, Waterbury, Hydropolitics 'of tiee Nile Valley, Fabian Acker, "Sav-ing Nepal's Dwindling Forests " New ientist, April 9, 1981.

24 WaterburN Hydropolitics _of the Nile, Su n Waton, "U.S.-Egypt NileProject Studies High Dam's Effects," Biosc nce, January 1981, "Irriga-non and Water Deylopmett, A Discussiorf" in Farvar and Milton, TheC'areless Technology.Nigel J. If Smith, Man, Fishes and the Amazon (New York. ColumbiaUniversity Press, 41) Information on Columbia River is from Colin

" Nash, "Fisheries Should be Important Part of Watertic;eu)se Plan-

360 Notes (pages, 1737-s74)

lung," World Water, October 1980. Letitia E. Obeni, "EnvirOnmenialImpacts of Four African Impoundments," in Environmental Impacts ofInternational Civil Engineiring Projects (iiew York. American SoCietyof Civil Engineers, 19771; Carl J. George, "The Role of the Aswan HighDam in Changing the Fisheries of the Southeastern Mediterranean," inFarvar-and Milton, Careless Tichnology.

26. For a general discussion of schistosomiasis, see Erik Eckholm, The Pic-ture of Hoalth: Environmental Sources of Diseas,e (NeW YorV: W. W.Norton te Co., 1977). For the role of dams in the disease's spread, seeA.W.A. Brown 2nd J. 0. Deom, "Summary: Health Aspects of Man-Made Lakes," and B.B. Waddy, "Health Problems of Man-Made Lakes:

AAnticipation and Realization, Kainji, Nigeria, and Kossou, Ivory Coast::

. in Ackermann, Man-M akes; Diana Gibson, "The Blue Nile_Pro-ject," World H August/September 195o; Nigel Pollard, "The'Gezira SchemeA Study in Failure," The Ecologist, January/Febniary1981.

27. Thayer Scudder, "Summary, Resettlement" and Charles Takes, "Reset-tlement of People from Dam Reservoir Areas," in Ackermann, Man-Made Lakes, Eugene Balon, "Kariba:- The Dubious Benefits of LargeDams," Ambio, Vol. 7, No. 2, 1978; Letitia E. Obeng:"Should Damsbe Built? The Volta Lake Eiample," Ambio, Vol. 6, No. 1, 1977;Nancie Gonzalez, "The Sociology of a Dam," Human.Organization,Vol. 31, No. 4, 1972. FOT a discussion of China's Three Gorges project,see "China, Hydro Agreement Gives U.S. Edge for Jobs," EngineeringNews Report September 6, 1979.

28. Sheldon Davis, Victims of the Miracle. Development and the Indians ofBrazil (Cambridge. Cambridge University press, 1977), Paul Aspelin,"Electric Colonialismi" SO Energy Notes, July/August 1982; "FilipinoHill Tribes Fight to Save Homes From Dam," New York Times, August12, 1980. For a discussion of the Inuit conflict, see Clayton Jones,"Quebec Turns Water Into Gold " Christian Science Monitor, July 30,'1980 For information on S"Brazil's Indians Have Seen

'February 15, 1981.9. For a liscussion of the -mono

man Aeyers: The Sinking AErik Eckholm, Disappeanwatch Paper 22 (WashingFor cases of &ins flooding encoif, "Behold the Tiny Snail-Da

rviva nternatiorial, see Warren Hoge,oo Much Progress," New York Times,

value of endangered species, see Nor-ew York. Pergamon Press, 1979) and

The Social Challenge, World-orldwatch Institute, July 1978)

species habitats, See Philip Shabe-An Ominous Leial SymbOl?," New

3A

4


York Times, October 7, 1979 Jane Naczynskahillips, "Tasmania Saves1 Wilderness by Modifying a Power Scheme," World EnvironmentReport, October 6, 1980, W. E Scott, "Tas,mania Posed foi Hydro-power Expansion," Energy International, October 1979. For environ-mental planning in Quebec's James Bay, see R. Paehlke "James BayProject environmental assessment in the planning of resource develop-ment" m 0 P Dwivedi, ed., Resources and the Environment. PolicyPerspectives for Canada (Toronto McClelland & Stewart Ltd , 1980).

30 Jean-Marc Fleury, "Aswan-on-Senegal?,"IDRC Report, February 1981,F M C. Budweg, "Environmental Engineering. for Dans and Reser-voirs in Brazil," Water Power and .bam Constniction, October 1980;Alan Grainger, "Will the Death Knell Sound in Silent Valley?", TheEce(ogist , August 1982. For a discussion of the role o( internationallending groups in the environmental planning for large dams, see RobertE. Stein and Brian Johnson,, Banking on the Biosphere' (Lexington,Man.: Lexington Books, 1979).

31 Thayer Scudder, "Ecological Bottlenecks and the Development of theKariba Lake Basin," in.Farvar and Milton, Careless Technology,

32. D E Abramowitz, "The Effect of Inflation on the Choice BetweenHydro and Thermal Power," Water Power & Dam Construction, Febru-ary 1977

33, Cost estimates are from Waterbury, Hydropolitics of the Nile J R.

Cotrim et al., "The Bi-National Itaipu Hydropower Project," WaterPower and Dam' Constniction, October 1977, Central IntelligenceAgency, Electric Power for China's Modernization The HydroelectricOption (Washington, D.C. May 1980), World Bank, Energy in Devel-dping Countries (Washington, D.C.: August 1980).

34. T W Berne, "The Role of International Lending Agencies," WaterPower and Dam Construction, August 1979; "Brazil Builds Up HerIndustrial Capability," Energy International, September 1976,' U,SCentral Intelligence Agency, Elearic Power for. China's Modernization,trevor Dneberg, "India Seeks Collaboration on Hydroelectric Pro-jects," Journd of Commerce, May 26, 1982.

35. For links between mineral and aluminum projects and hydropower,,see"The Amazon Dilemma," Energy International, September 1976 W.EScott, "Hydro Power Leads Energy Development Plans for Papua NewGlimea," Energy International, January 1977, Leslie Dienes and Theo-dore Shabad, The Soviet Energy System (Washington, D.C.. V HWinston & Sons, 1979), Monica M Cole; "The Rhodesian Economyin Transition 2nd the Role of Kariba: Geography, Vol 47, No 3, 1962; .

375

362 . Notes (pages 176-180)

Peter Crabb "Hydro Power on the Periphery: A Comparison of New-foundland, Tasmania and the South Island,' Alternatives, Summer1982.

36. Dan Morgan, "Pacific Northwest Faces Kilowatt Crisit," WashingtonPost, October 28, 1979, Roger Gale, "Kaiser Squibbles With GilanaOver Cheap Power," Energy Daily, October 29, 1980.

37. For cost figures on various fuels, see U S. Energy Informatiob Adminis-tration, Annual Report to Congress r981 (Washinglon, D.C.. Depart-ment of Energy, 1981) and U.S. Congress, General Accoriting Office,"Region of the CrossroadsThe Pacific Northwest Searches for NewSources of Electric Energy," Washington, D.C. August 1978. For nu-clear Cost overnins in the U.S. Pacific Northwest, see Leslie Wayne,"Utility Setbacks on the Coast," New York Times, November 3, 1981;

38. "Projected De-Controlled Hydroelectnc Revenues for 56 DevelopingCountries Based On 1979 Output," Center for Development Policy,Washington, D.0 , unpublished, 1981 In 1981 the World Bank loaned$8.8 billion.

39. Roger Gale, "Kaiser Squabbles With Ghana Over Cheap Power," En.-ergy Daily, October 29, 1980, Nicholas Burnett, "Kaiser ShortcircuitsGhanian Development," Multinational Monitor, February 1980, "Im-perialism and the Volta Dam," West Africa, March 24, 1 9-A cho, --cry.Payer, The World Bank. A Critical Analysis (New York and London:Monthly Review Press, 1982), David Hart, The Volta River Project(Eslinburgb: University Press, 1980).

40. Kai Lee and Doniv Lee Klemka, Electric Power and the Future of thePacific Northwest (Pullman, Wash. State of Washington Water Re-source Center,"March .1980) For a discussion of recent pricing disputes,see ':Environmentalists' goles in Northwest Power Talks May Put theBite on Industry," Energy Daily, May 1, 1981 For some of the adjust-ment problems posed by higher prices without revenue recycling, seeVictor F. Zonama, "Power Prices Upset Business in Northwest," WallStreet.lournal, September 3, 1982.

41. For a discussion of similar proposals, see Ralph Cavanaugh et al , Choos-ing an ElectricatEnergy Future for the Pacific Northwest. An AlternativeScenario (San Francisco. Natural Resources Defense Council, August1980) 2nd Kopp Arthur, "Electric Power Rates in Ghana,The Case forMore Revenue," Africa Research and Publications Project, November27, 1980.

42. World Bank, Energy in Developing Countries.43. Cost estimates are from Allen Inversin, "A Pelton Micro-Hydro Proto-

A

Notes (pages 18o-183) 363

type Design:: Appropriate Technology Development Witt, Papua NewGuinea, June 1980, and Ueli Meier, "Development of Equipment forHarnessing Hydro power on a Small presented to the Workshopin Mini/Micro Hydroelectric Plants, Kathmandu, Nepal, September1 0-14, 1979

44 For a general picture of 'China's centralized energy system, see UCentral Intelligence Agency, Electric Power for China's Modernization,and William Clark, "China's Eli-dm Power Industry," in ChineseEconomy Post Mao (Washington, D.0 Joint Economic Committee,U S Congress, 1978)

45 For overview of China's small-scale hydro program, see Robert P Taylor,Rural Energy Development in China (Washington, D C.. Resources forthe Future, 1981)

46. Taylor, Rural Enerd Development in China, Mao Wen Jing and DengBing Li, "An Introduction of Small Hydro-Power Generation in China,"United Nations Industrial Orgeization, New York, May 1980.

47 Ma0 and Deng, "Introduction !to Smiall Hydro-Power in China", Alex-ander Ansfieng Tseng ef 21, "The Role of Small Hydro-Electric PowerGeneration in the Energy Mix Development for the People's Republicof China," 'Oriental Engineering and Supply Co , Parb Alto, Calif.,October 3, 1979

48. Vaclav, &nil, "Intermediate Energy Technology in China," Bulletin ofthe Atomic Scientisis, February 1977.

49 The Papua New Guinea project is discussed in Allen Inversin, "Techni-cal Notes on the Baindoang Micro Hydro and Water Supply Scheme,"PNG University of Technology, Lae, Papua New Guinea, unpublished,1981 Ed Arata, "Micro-Hydroelectric Projects for Rural Developmentin Papua New Guinea," in Donald Evans and Laurie Nogg Adler, eds.,Appropriate Technology for Development A Discussion and Case Histo-ries (Boulder, Cok.: Westview Presi, 1979).

50. Fabian Archer, "Saving Nepal's Dwindling Forests," New Scientist,April% 1981 For activities in Peru, see memorandum on "Small Decen-tralized Hydropower Program," International Programs Division, Na-tional Rural Electric Cooperative Association, Washington, D C , No-veniker 13, 1980 F'or a country-by-country review of small-scale hydroefforts, see United Nations Industrial Development Organization,"Draft Report of the Seminar-Workshop on the Exchange of Experi-ences and:Technology Transfer on Mini Hydro Electric GenerationUnits," Kathmandu, Nepal, September 10-14, 1979 For a worldwidebreakdown of energy aid programs, see Thomas Hoffmann and Brian

3 7

364-7 Notes (pages 183-185)

Johnson, The World Energy 7;riangle. A Strategy for Cooperation (Cam-bridge, MaSS.. Ballinger, 1981). World Bank figures are from EdwardMoore, Work) Bank, private communication, April 30,1981.

51. For 2 discussion of new synalscale hydro assistance approaches, see KenGrover, "Small Decentralized Hydropower for Developing Countries,"GSA International, Katonah, N Y., unpublished, undated,. antt RupertArmstrong-Evans, "Micro-Hydro as an Appropriate Technology in De-veloping Countries," presented to the International Conference onSmall-Scale Hydropower, Washington, D.C., October 1-3,1979. FOrthe hydropower development corporation idea, see S. David Freeman,"Hydropower for Development and Energy," presented to the North-

, South Roundtable t the United N*ions Conference on New andRenewable Sources of Energy, Nairobi, Kenya, August 10-21, 1981.

52. For exampks of conflicts over hydro deve6pment, see E. W. Ken-worthy, "Kleppe Moves to Block Dam in Carolina," New York Times',March 13, 1976. J. B. Kirkpatrick, Hydro-Electhc Development andWilderness in Tasmania (Department of the Environment, Hobart,Tasmania, two), B. Connolly, The Fight for the Franklin. The Story ofAustralia's Last Wild River (Sydney. Cassell Australia Ltd., 1981). Forecological merits of preserving rivers, see Committee on EnvironmentalEffects of the United States Committee on Large Dams, EnvironmentalEffects of Large Dams (New York. American Society of Civil Engineers,1978). Mark M. Brinson, "Ripariin and Floodplain Ecosystems. Func-tions, Values, and Management:1 Fish ind Wildlife Service, U.S De-partment of the Interior, April 1980. For the Moral east for bequeatliingsome rivers to future generations, see John McPhee, Encounters with theArchdruid (New York: Doubleday, 1975).

53 S. Angelm and H. Boström, "Hydro ljevelopment in Sweden," WaterPower and Dam Constniction, June 1989 Information on U.S. scenicrivers is from Warren Viessman, Jr., "Hydropower," in CongressionalResearch Service for U,S. House of Representitives, Committee on

' Interstate and Foreign Commerce, and U.S. Senate, Committee onEnergy and Natural Resources 2nd Committee on Commerce, Science,2nd Transportation, Project Independence. U.S. and World Energy Out-look Through 199ii, Committee Print, November .1977.

54. For a critique of the misuse of cost-benefit analysis in water projects, seeBrent Blackwelder, "sin Lieu of DaMS," Water Spectnim, Fall 1977 Foran overview of the dominant water development mentality in the UnitedStates, see aichard L. Berkman and W. Kip Viscuse, Damming theWest (New York: Grossman Publishers, 1973).

378.


55 There is no standard definition of "mini," "micro" and "small" hydro.Generally, however, "micro" refers to a plant under 5o kilowatts, "mini"under ro megawatts 2nd "small" anything under leo megawatts Infor-mation on France is from J Cotillon,,"Micropower. An Old Idea Fora New Pr Oblem," Water Power and Darn Construction, January 1979.D G, Birkett, "Review of Potential Hydroelectric Development in theScottish Highlands," Electronics and Power, May 1979, Jim Harding,"Soft Paths for Difficult Nations. The Problem of Japan," Soft EnergyNotes, June/July 1980 Information on Wales is from World Environ-ment Report, February 16, 1981. "Rudrania's Maxi Strategy on Mini.Hydro Plants," Energy in Countries with Planned Economies, April1981, E. G. Greunert, "Crash Program for Mini Hydro in Spain,"Modern Power Systems, February. 1981, "Mini Hydropower for Swe-den," Water Power and Darn Construction, May 1978.

56 Comparison on energy from Rhone and Ohio rivers is from U.S. Con-gress, General Accounting Office, "HydropowerAn Energy SourceWhose Time Has Come Again," Washington, D.C., January 1980.Estimates of potential at small U S. dams are from Institute of WaterResources, Preliminary Inventory of Hydropower Resources, Vol. 1 (FontBelvoir, Va.. U S. Army Corps of Engineers, July 1979), and R. J.McDoriald, "Estimates of the National. Hydroelectric Power Potentialat Existing Dams," U S Army Corps-of Engineers, Institute of WaterReSOUICCS, Fort Belvoir, Va., July 1977.

57 New England River Basins Commission, "Potential for HydropowerDevelopment at Existing. Dams in the Northeast," Physical and Eco-nornic Findings and Methods, Vol. I (Boston. January 1980).

58 For a discussion of the limited power producers section of the PublicVtility Regulatory Policy Act of..1978, see Reinier H. J. H. Lock, "En-couraging Decentralized Generation of Electricity. Implementation ofthe New Statutory Scheme," Solar Law Reporter, November/Decem-ber 1980 For p discussion of the institutional barriers to smill-scalehy o renovation, see Peter Brown, "Federal Legril Obstacles and Incen-t es to the Development of the Small Scale Hyaroelectric Potential of

e Nineteen Northeastern United States," Energy'Law Institute, Con-cord, N H , 1979 For a summary of federal governmenf small-scalehydro power programs, see U S Congress, General Accounting Office,

. "HydropowerEnergy Source Whose Time Has.Come Again," Janu-ary I I , 1980. .

59 Solar Energy Research Institute, "Hydroelectric Power," Appendix C ofSolar Energy Research Institute, A New Prosperity. Building a Sustain-

et

40

. 3 79

vo

. 366 Notes (pages 186-197)

able Puture (Andover, Mass.. Brick House, 1981), U.S. Congress, Gen-eral Accounting Office, "Non-Federal Development of HydroelectricResources at F'ederal DamsNeed to Establish a Clear Federal Policy,"Washington, D.C., September 1980.

6o. Todd Crbwell, "Grand Coulee Dam. Growing, Changing HydropowerGiant," Christian Science Monitor, August 27, 1980; G. Weber et al ,"Uprating Switierland's Hydro Plants," Water Power and Dam Con-struction, February 1978, Gladwin Hill, "U.S. May Add 200 Feet to aCalifornia Dam," New York Times, January 18, 1979.

61. Por mformation d n use of hydro plants for peaking, see Gordon Thomp-son, "Hydroelectnc Power in the USA. Evolving to Meet New Needs,"

Center for Energy and Environmental Studies, PrincetodUniversity,1981. Global pumped storage figure is from "Report of the TechnicalPanel on Hydropower," prepared for the United Nations Conference onNew 2nd Renewable Sources of Energy, Nairobi, Kenya, August 10-21ror a discussion of the role of pumped storage in highly 'developedelectricity systems, see A. M. Angelini, "The Role of Pumped-Storagein Western Etirope," Water Power and Dam Construction, June 1980and Orval Burton, "Hydro-Power and Pumped Storage in the NOrth-west," Energy and Water Resources (Washington, D C; Water Re-

\ sources Research Institute, January 1977).62. "Canadians Utilize Hydroelectric Power," Journal of Commerce, Febru-

ary 25, 1981, Costa Rican information from "Power on Tap," &lip-money, August 1980,

63. K. Goldsmith, "The Role of Swiss Hydro in Europe," Water Power andDam Construction, June 1980, Richard Cjitchfield, "Nepal. MajesticMountains, Snowcapped Riches," Christian Science Monitor, Novem-ber 1, 1978. For a discussion of the parallels between Nepal 2nd Switzer-land, see Robert Rhoades, "Cultural Echoes Across the Mountains,"Natural History, January 1979.

64. Hydropower provides 90 percent of Brazil's electricity. Output increasedat all average annual rate of. i 1 percent over the last decade. Assy

Wallace, "Brazil Moves Toward Energy Self-Sufficiency," SoffEnergyNotes, April 1980, Eric Jeffs, "Hydro to be Main Power Source forVenezuela," Energy International, June.,1980; Conrad Manly, "Mexico

. Turns to Water Power," Journal of Commerce, September 17, 1975; P.M. Belliappa, "Planning of Hydropower and Future Prospects of Hydro-

, power Development in India," Indian Journal of Power and River ValleyN

Development, July/August 1981.IC

\

65. World Energy Conference, Survey of Energi, Resources For a discussionof foreign exchange considerations in Chinese hydro development, see

E

3 8 0

, Notes (pages 190-196) 367 .

U S. Central Ink Hance Agency, Electnc Power for China's Moderni- ,

zation. $

Chapter 9. Wind .Power: A Turning Point

I Wind patterns worldwide are discussed in Carl Asphden, "TechnicalNote on-Wind Energy" (Preliminary), World Meteorological Organiza-tion, Geneva, July 1984, and Nicholas P. Cheremisinoff, Fundamenialsof Wind Energy (Ann Arbor, Mich.. Ann Arbor _Science Publishers,197i).

. z. M R Gustayson, "Limits to Wind Power Utilization," Science, April6, 1979.

3- Wind power's early history is 'discussed in Walter Minchinton, "WindPower," History Today, March 1980, E. W Golding, The Cenerationof Electricity by Wind' Power (London. E. dr F.N. Spon, Ltd., 1930,and Vplta Torrey, Wind-Catchers American Windmills of Yesterdayand Tomorrow (Brattleboro, Vt.: Stephen Greene Press, 1976).

4. Ibid.5 The six million wind pumps estimate is from Frank R. Eldridge, Wind

Machines (New York. Van Nostrand Reinhold Co., 1980). The Fraen-kel quote is from Peter L. Fraenkel, ;The Use of Wind Power forPumping Water," a contributioulat_The British Wind Energy Associa-tion Position Paper on Wind'Pdwer, 1980..

6 'Cheremisinoff, Fundamentals of Wind Energy, Eldridge, Wind Ma-Chines, V Daniel Hunt, Windpower. A Handbook on Wind Energy

1Conversion Systems (New York Van Nostrand Reinhola Co., 1981).7. The NASA Lewis Research Center, Wind Energy Developments in the

Twentieth Century (Cleveland, Oh.. National Aeronautdios and SPaceAdministration, 1979)

8 Efficiency figures are from Hunt, Windpower. The five,Year energypayback period is a conservative estimate, in most cases it will be evenlower. See Lockheed California Company, Wind Energy Mission Andy-lis (Burbank, Calif. . October 1976), and Institute for Energy Analysis:."Net Energy Analysis of Five Energy Systems," Oak Ridge AssociatedUniversities, Oak Ridge, Ttnn., unpublished, September 1977.

9 Cheremisinoff, Fundamentals of Wind Energy, Hunt, Windpower.lo. A broad view of worldwide wind availability.is included in Pacific North-

west Laboratory, "World-Wide Wind Energy Resource DistributionEstimates," a map prepared for the World Meteorological Organization,1981. . . .

1 i. The estimate of . oximately Ore million wind pumps is widely used

,..

3 8 i

--N-

(.

-

..

368 'Notes (pages 10-1.9).

(see, fos example, Fraenkel, "The Use of Wind Power for PumpingWater") but is not based on an actual survey. The energy-capacityestimates are based on data from Kenneth Darrow, Volunteers in ASia,private communication, May 28, 1981.

12. A good overview of wind-pump technology 2nd related issues is found

in Steve Blake, 'Wind Driven Water PumpsEconomics, Technology,Current Activities," Sunflower Power Company, Oskaloosa, lahsas, pre-pared for the World Bank, unpublished, December 1978.,

1,3. Information on the wind-pump industry is from Alan Wyatt, Volunteersin Technical Assistance, 2nd Peter Fraenkel, Interniediate TechnologyDevelopment Group (ITDG), private communications, April z8 andMay 13, 1981.

14. These points are discussed in Marshal F. Merriam, "Windmills for LessDeveloped Countries," Technos, April/June 1972, and in H. J. M.Beurskens, "Feasibility Study of Windmills for Water Supply in MaraRegion, Tanzania," Steering Committee on Wind-Energy for Develop-ing Countries, Amersfoort, Netherlands, March 1978 Zambia exampleis from Alan Wyatt, Volunteers in Technical Assistance, private com-munication, April 28, 1980. . -

15. Peter L. Fraenkel, "The Relative Economics'of Windpumps Com-pared with Engine-Driven PumpS," ITDG, London, unpublished, 1981Studies in India are described in "Report of the Technical Panel onWind Energi,'; prepared for the United Nations-Conference on Newand Renewable Sources of Energy, Nairobi, Kenya, August' 10-21,1981. .

16. Various simple wind pump designs aye described in Blake, "WindDriven Water Pumps," and Ken Darrow, "Locally Built Windmills 2SadAypropnate Technology for Irrigation of Small Holdings in Develop-ing tountries," Volunteers in Asia, Stanford, Calif unPublished, Feb-ruary 26, 1979

17. Victor Englebert, "The Wizard of Las Gaviotas," Quest, May '1981.Information on the ITDG design from Peter Fraenkel, private commu-nication, May 13, 1981

18. See for instance Darrow,'"Locally Built Windmills,"19. The most detailed study of the feasibility of using sails on modern

commercial ships is Lloyd Bergeson, Wind Propulsion for ShiPs of theAmerican Merchant Marine (WashingtOn, D.C.: U S. MaritimeAgency, 1981).

zo, The Phoenix and the Mini Lace are described in Christopher Pope,'"Saving on Sail," Renewable Energy News, June 1982. The Japanesetanker is described in Wesley Marx, "Seafarers Rethink Traditional

, .

38 9


Ways of Harnessing the Wind for Commerce," Smithsonian, Decem-ber 981

i i Philippines and Sri Lanka efforts are described in "Fishers Take ForwardStep 13dck to Sailing," Christian Science Monitor, April 19,1982 LloydBergeson is quoted in Pope, "Saving on Sail" ,

22 The estimate of 26,000 wind turbines is from Carl Asp liden, U S. De-partment of Energy, private communication, June 4,1981 Cost esti-mate of over zoo per kilowatt hour is from Theodore R Kornreich andDaryl M Tompkins, "An Analysis of the Economics of Current ,Small

'Wind Energy Systems," presented to the U.S. Department of Energy'sThird Wind Energy Workshop, Washington, D C. May 1978. A figureof 500 to $1 per kilowatt-hour is used in "Report of the Technical Panelon Wind Energy "

23 Small wind turbines are discussed in detail M Dermot McGuigan, Har-. nessing the Wind for Home Energy (Charlotte, Vt . Garden Way Pub-

lishing, 1978), and in Jack Park and Dick Schwind, Wina Power forFarms, Homes, and Small Industry (Springfield, Va . National TechnicalInformation Service, 1978) Informatioit on Deninirk`from B. MariboPedersen, "Windpower in Denmark," presented to the, California En-

_

ergy Commission Wind Energy Conference, Palm Springs, Calif., April6-7,1981 (referred to in follOwing notes as Palm Springs Wind Energy

iConference)24. U S small wind systems on the market today are described in Rockwell

Intprnational, "Commercially Available Small Wind Systems andEquipment," Golden, Colo , unpublished, March 31,1981. The 2,400wind machines figure is from Tom Grey of the American Wind EnergyAssociation, private communication, September 21,1982.

25 W S Bollmeler et al., Small Wind Systems Technology Assessment.State,of the Art and Near Term Coals (Springfield, Va . National Trch-nical Information Service, 19861

26 Ned Coffin is quoted in Frank Farwell, "New Energy. A BurgeoningBusiness in Windmills," New York Times, April 27, 1986. Potential forassembly line Manufacturing is discussed in Wind Energy Program,"Conufierciahzation Strategy Report for Small Wind Systems," U.S.Depar rit of Energy,,Washington, D C., unpublished, undated, andBollmeler e , Small Wind Systetns Technology Assessment.

27 Cost-of-electric y figures are at best approximate, and sev al manufac-turers claim their machines can generate electricity for lcJt11ff x 50 perkilowatt-hour The actual figures, however, are usually higher See Boll-meler et al , Small Wind Systems Technology Assessment, and "Reportof the Technical Panel on Wind. Energy."

383

r


28. Eldridge, Wind Maand David A. Pet

ch. Kt H. Hohenemser, Ahdrew H. P. Swift,, A De nitive Generic Study for Sailwing Wind

Energy Systems (Sp 'ngfield, Va.. Nafional Technical Information Ser-vice, 1979); Irwin E,Vas, A Review of the Current Status of the WindEnergy Innovative Systems Projects (Springfield, Va.. National Techni-cal Information ServiCe, 1980).

29. D. E. Crontack, Investigation of the Feasibility-of Using Wind Power forSpace Heating in Colder Climates (Springfield, Va.: National TechnicalInformation Service, 1979).

30. 'The U.S. Department of Energy wind power program is based-on thispremise, which is discussed in Lockheed California Company, WindEnergy Mission Analysis, ana in Giant Miller, 'Vissessment of LargeScale Windmill. Technology and Prospects for Commercial Applica-hon," working paper submitted to National Science FoundatiOn, Wash-ington, D.C., unpublished, Selitember 8, 1980. Some wind power ex-

. perts disagree with these claims for the economic superiority of largewind -machines, noting that theoretical cost savings may not be realizedbecause a the complex engineering that must go into large turbines.

31. The woo homes figure is based on the assumption that an average houseuses 800 kilowatt-hours of electricity pier month and ihat a 4-niegawattwind machine operates at 2 capacity factor of 30 percent Assurbing that

COal or nuclear plant operates at 2 capacity factor of 6o percent, it takesa 2,000-megawatt wind farm (500, 4-megawatt machines) to generate as

much power as 2 large 1,000-megawatt coal or nuclear plant.32. Large-scale turbine technology is discbssed In NASA Lewis Research

Center, "Wind Energy Developments," in Eldrige, Wind Machines,and in "Going with the Wind," EPRI Journal, March 1980.

33. The NASA program iI"tliscused in NASA Lewis Research Center,

. "Wind Energy Developments," and in Miller, "Assessment of LargeScale Windmill Technology." See also Ray Vicker, "PG& Hopes tobe Buying Electricity from Biggest U.S. Wind Farm' by 5," WallStreet fou'rnal, November ii, 1982.

34. Benda program is described by David Taylor, Bendix Corporation,private communication, March 23, 1981,0 Hamilton Standard programis described' by Mr. Wolf, Hamilton Standard Company, private com-munication, March ;3, 1981,

35. B. Maribo Pedersen, "The Danish Large Wind Turbine Program,"presented to the Wind Energy Workshop on Large Wind Turbines,NASA Lewis Research Center, Cleveland, Ohio, April 1979; "GreatBritain to Build 3 MW, 250 KW WECS," Wind Energy Report,January 1981.

384

v

Notes (pages 2o5-208) 371y

, -36. Naiional Research Council of Canada, "Canadian Wind Energy Re-

search and Development," Ottawa, unpublished, undated, Paul N Vos-) buret and John E Primus, "Wind Energy for Industrial Applicatiorts,"

IE Conference Proceedings, conference site unknown, Fall 198037 The involveMent)of U S utility companies in wind-power projects is

described in Elizabeth Baccell, and Karen Cordon, Electric Utility,SolarEnergy Activities 1981 Surny (Palo Alto, Calif Electric Power Re-

search Institute, 1982) British utility programs are described in R HTaylor and D. T Swifthook, "Windpower Studies in the C.E.G.B ,"presented to the U S Department of Entrgy's Fourth Biennial Confer-ence and Workshop on Wind Eaergy, Washington, IIC, October29-31, 1979 The Dutch program is described in "Dutch to Build ioMW Windfarm," World Saar Markets, March 1982

38 U.S Windpower's program is discussed in Ellen Perky Frank, "Break-kmg the Energy Impasse," New Roots, (month-unknown) 19;79, and in

''World's First SWEoS Windfarm Built on Mountain Ridge in NewHampshbre," Wind Energy Report, January 1981 The Hawaii projectis described 111 Jane Wholey, "Hawaii New Dynast; in RenewableEnergy," Solar Age, May 1981 See 'also Christopher Pope, "Windfarm-mg Cams Ground in U S Market," Renewable Energy,News, February

.. 01982 .

39 -For more.information ofi California's wind farms see, California EnergyCommusion, Wind / nergy Program Progress Report (Sacrarnepto,.Calif 1982) and evelopment Fast 2nd Furious in Four of California sWind-Swept Mountain Passes," Renewable Energy News, May 1982.The 1982 California wind farm statistics and.goals are from KathleenCray, California Energy Commission, private communication, Septem-

ber 27, 1982 .

.1' 40 Cost estimates for Denmark are from Pedersen, "Windpower in Den-

mark British estimate is from David Lindley 'of Taylor WoodrowConstruction Ltd. aLthe Palm Springs Wind Energy Conference U Sestimate is from Robert Lowe, "Expected Electricity Costs for the U S

Mod-2 Windmill,4 Energy Policy, December 198o, and Miller, "Assess-

ment of Large Scale Windmill Technology "41, Roderick Nash, "Problems in Paradise Land Use and the American

Dream," Environment, Julf/August 1979. Land use figurcs arc authors'estimates based ,on wind resource surveys in California See Californiai

Energy Commission, "Wind Energy Assessment of California," Sac-ramefito, Calif , unpublished, March 1981, and Michael Dubey and Ugo

. Coty, Impact of Large Wind Energy Systems in California (5acramento,

Calif California Energy Commission, 1981)

I

I

In.

I 1

372 Notes (pages 208-310) 4

42 Dubey and Coty, Impact ,of Large Wind, Energy Systems. The wind, turbines cannot be packed too deniely onto a site since blad,-caused

Wind turbulence causes them to inttbrfere writh one another This leavesample room for livestock grazing between the wind machines. One area

1 where land use conflicts have arisen is the and San Gorgonio Pass,inCalifornia, one of the state's richest wind power sites. The U S. Bureauof Land Management has recommended that wind farm developmentthere be limited so that 'scenic values are maintained. See U.S. Qepart-ment of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management, Final Environmgn-tal Impact Statement on the San Gorgonio Pass Wind Energy Project(Washington, D.0 1§82) Another land use conflict is described inLincoln Sheperdson, "Veynont Citizens M6ve to Protect National For- ' iest from Wind Turbine," Canadiim RenreWalle Energy News, becem-bei 1980 The io ib .25 percent figure is the authors' estimate based ondata described-above.

.

43 Noise was a,particular problem for one of the U.S. Department ofEnergy's early experimental wind machines erected at Boone, NorthCarolina, in 1979 Called a Mcid-i, the machins several 'flaws andhas operated only intermittently Recently develod large turbines suchas the Mod-2 have not had thisiproblem. Wind turbineregulations forLincoln, Nebraska, and Boulder County, Colorado, are described in .

David Morris, Self-Reliant Cities (San Franciscis Sieira Club Books,1982)

44 D L Sengupta and T E. A Seniork "Electromagnetic-Interference to'TV Iteception Caused by Windmills," resented to the U.S. Depart-

t ment of Energy's Third Wald Energy Workshop, Washington, D.C.,.,-.

. May 1978.45 Favorable results of surveys carried out at experimental tuitine locations

described by Robert Noun, U.S Solar Energy Research Institute, speechat Palm Springs Wind Energy ConferenCe. '

46 The reliability issue is discussed in "Wind and Utilities," Wind PowerDigest, Fall 197,9, and W. D. Marsh, Requirements Assessmexas ofWind Power Plants in Electric Utility Systems (Palo Alto, Calif.. ElectticPower Research Institute, r979). An energy analyst in Austeglia hascalculated that for small electricity grids wind turbines have approxi-mately the'same reliability as a nuclear power plant,4s reported in Mark

Dindorf, "Australian Wind Reliability," Wind Power Digest,Spring

isi81

A plaii to integrate wind power and hydropower is,described in CliffordBarrett, "Bureau of Reclamation's Wind/Hydroelectric Energy Pro-ject," presented to the LI S. I5epattment of Energy's Fourth Biennial

.47

3 3 S6

)

a-

or

A

,Notes (pages 210-216) 373

Conference and Workshop on Wind Energy, Washington, D C., Octo-ber 29-31, 1979.

48 B Manbo Pedersen, Technical University of Denmafk, private commu-nication, April 6, 1981, Richard WI lharns, "An Update on Activities atRocky Flats," presented at the Fourth Biennial Conference and Work-s*.

49 U S Government funding levels are from Tom Grey, American Win,dEnergy Association, private communication, September 21, 1982 Someof the commercial wind farm projects in the U.S are premised onfurther govanment support to perfect the "Mod-i" turbine design and-develop two more-advanced and less-expensive "Mod-5" turbines de-signed by Boeing and General Electric As of late 1982 this program isgoing ahead on a 50-50 cost shanng basis between the government aridthe companies according to Tom Grey, but the pate has slowed since1980. For an overview of U.S. Government support ol wind power priorto the 1981 budget cuts, see U.S Pepartment of Energy, "FederalWind Energy Program Fact Sheet," Walington, D.C., unpublished,June 25, 1910, and Kent Rissmiller and Larry M Smukler, "An Analysisof the Legislative Initiatives of the ,96th Congress to Accelerate theDevelopment and Deployment of Wind Energy Conversion Systems,7.,Energy Law Institute, Concord, N.H., unpublished, June 17, 1980.

50 California Energy Commission, "Wind Energy Assessment of Califor-ma," Nancy Phillips, "Wind Farms Blow U S Land Prices Sky High,"Canadian Renotable Energy News, April 1981.

5; Wciad Meteorological Organization activities, are described by CarlAspliden, U S Department of Energy, private communication, June 4,1981. The World Meteorological Organization map is from PacificNorthwest ,Laboratory, "Worldwide Wind Energy Resource Distribu-tion Estimates 4

52 Information on availability of sufficient wind for wind pumps is fromAlan Wyatt, Volunteers in Technical Assistance, and Peter, Fraenkel,Intermediate Technology Development Group, private communica-tions, April 28 and June 2, 1981.

53 "Danes Sail Ahead with Wind Power," New Scientist, July 2, 1981

54. Arthur D Little, Inc , Near-Term High Potential Counties for SWECS,Final Report (Springfield, Va.. National Technical Information Service,1981).

55 The North Sea study was described by David Lindley of Taylor Wood-row construction Ltkat the Palm Springs Wind Energy Conferenceand in Judy Redfearn, "The ProsPect for Ocean-Going Windmills,"Nature, April 24, 1980.

3 8

374 . Notes (pages 216-219)

56 Some of the best material on global wind availability is -included InPacific Ilorthwest Laboratory, "World-Wide Wind Energy ResourceDistribution Estimates." Th?s IS a broad view of wind availabilitY, andmore detailed material i.s available only on a limited, regionl basis Theestimates of wind power's potential contribution are the authors', basedon regional estimates made in Lockheed California Company, "Wind

is$Energy ission Analyiis," in Matami Ginosar, "A Proposed Large-Scale Wi d Energy Program in Californiar Enere Sources, Vol. 5, No,2, 194o, in Dubey. and Coty, Impact of Large Wind Energy Systems inCalifornia, and in Redfearn, "Prospect for Ocean-Going Windmills."The calculations on wind's energy potential are based on the assumptionthat wind machines operate on average at 30 percent of rated capacitycompared to 45 percent for hydro dams in recent years In 1979, a hydrocapacity .of 44o.5 gigawatts provided 1.72 million gigawitt hours Ofelectricity. Total wofld electricity4generating capacity in 1979 was 2,914gigawatts. These numbers are from United Nations, 1979 Yearbook ofWorld Energy-Statistics (New York. 1981). The primary energy figure,is derpfed by assuming that it takes to 7 exajoules ol primary energy (theequivalent of, 366 million fons of coal) to gAierate a million gigavott'hours of eleitricity. .. 4 .

1

Chapter 10. Geothermal Energy: The Powering Inferno'

For a discussion of the origin of the earthl heat, see EncyclopaediaBritannica, 15th ed., s.v., "Earth, Heit Flow In."

2. Estimate of current geothermal energy use is derived from RonaldDiPippo, "Geothermal Power Plants. Worldwide Survey of July 1981,"presented to the Geothermal Resources Council Fifth Annual Meeting,Houston, Tens, October 25-29,1981, "Report of the Techuical Panelon Geothermal Energy,". prepared for the United Nations,Conferenceon New and Renewable Sources of Energy, Nairobi, Kenya, August10-21, 1981, ana Ión Gudmundsson, Department of Petrokum Engi-neenng Stanford University, private communicatiog November 24,1982. The estimates on number of houses that could be served assumean average heating requirement of 145 gigajoules per year and an averageelectricity requirement of 800 kilowatt hours per month Geothermalpower plaots arcassumed tO operate on average at 70 percent of capacity

_Total capacit)iTn 1981 was approximately-e5oo megawatts.3. Average thermal gradient is from Donald White, Characteristics of

Geothermal Resources," in Paul Kruger and Card Otte, eds., Ceother-nal Energy (Stanford, Calif.. Stanford Universityi'ress, 1973) 'Mut-

.

3 8,8.1;

ol

1

Notes (pages 319-334 375

mum temperature gradient it from Vasel Roberts, Electric Power ke-search Institute, private communication, April 26,'1982.

4 The world's geothermal zones are described in Erika Laszlo, "Geother-mal Energy An Old Ally," Ambio, Vol. 1,0, No. 5, 1981.

5 For further discussion of hydrothermal systems, see White, "Character-istics of Geothermal Resources."

6 For further discussion of geopressured systems, see U.S. Congress, Gen-eral Accounting Office, Geothermal Ensip. Obstacles and UncertaintiesImpede Its Widespread Use (Washington,'D.C.. January 18, 1980).

1 7 Estimating the total amount of useful energy contained in ihe earth is

difficult, but experts agree that the ultimate potential is staggfnng. VaselRoberts of the Electric Power Research Institute estimates that theportion that is potentially useable is roughry 25,000 exajoules (EJ) forpower generation arid 3 million EJ for direct use. About zo percent of

'this peftential is believed to be exploitable using curnTt technology, or5,000 EJ for electricity generation 2nd 6co,000 EJ for direct use. To-gether, this is enough energy to provide for our current level of energyur for almost 2000 years. See Vasel Koberts, "Geothermal Energy," inAdvances in Enere Systems kid Technology, Vol I, 1978

8 William W Eaton, Geothermal Energy (Washington, D.C.. U.S. En-ergy Research and Development Administration, 1975), "Report of theTechnical Panel on Geothermal Energy."

9 Description-of baths in Japan is from John W. Lund, "Direct Utilizatiohthe International Scene," Ceo-Heat Utilization Center, Oregon Insti-tute of Technology, Klamath Falls, Oregon, unpublished, Undated. Esti-mates of energy saved by Japanese baths and geothermal applicationsin Thailand and Me4ico is from JOno,S,,litinar Gudrramdsson and Gud-mondur Palmason, :World Survey of Low-Temperature GeothermalEnergy Utilization," prepared for the-United Nations Conference onNew and kenewable Sources of.Energy, Nairobi: Kenya August10-21, 1981 Geothermal use in Guaiemala was noted by KathleenCourrter, Center fdr Renewable Resources, private xommunication,June 12, 1982. ,

io. Information on Idaho aquaculture facility is from "Energy ResearchersAre Getting Into Hot Water," New York Times, December 14, I980.Description of greenhouse apphcations in littod, "Direct Utilization,"and Gudipundsson and Palmason, World Survey.

1 1 Industrial uses in leerand and New Zealand are described in Paul J.Lineau, "Geothermal Resource Utilization," presented to AmericanAssociation for the Advancement of Science Annual Meeting, Washing-

., ton, D C January 3-8, 1980 Onion dehydration pinject is described

3 89

\376 Notes (pages 222-223)..

in Joe Glonoso, "GeothermSI Moves Off the Back Burner, Part II,"

Energy Management, October/November, 1980 .

:2. Paul J. Leinau apd John W. Lund, "Utilization and Econo ics of

Geothermal Space Heating in Klamath Falls, Oregon," Geoth t'Utili-zation Center, Oregon Institute of Technolo , Klamath Falls Oregon,unpublished, undated. The life-cycle cost arls is from rohn WLund, "Geothermal Energy Utilization for the H eowkr," Geo-HeatUtilization Center, Klamath Falls, Oregon, unppblished, December,1978.

13. "Basic Statistics of Iceland," Ministry of Fnreign Affairs, lieland, April1981, Cudmundsson and Palmason, World Survey. The comparison

with oil costs is from "Hitaveita Reykjaviltur," a government pamphlet

describing Iceland's district heat programs,. undated: :

14. All existing geothermal district heating systems have proved economical

according to Paul J. Lineau, "Space afiditioning. with GeothermalEnergy," Geo-Heat Utilization Center, Klamath Falls,;Oregon, unpub.lished, undated.

15. Estimate of number of groundwatekheat pumps in q:s. is from RobertHoe, Vanguard Energy systems, private communicatiOn, May 12, 1982'Jay Lehr, president of the National'Well Water ASOCiation,ally predicts that by the end of this decade all new fite-standing houses

. in the U.S. built on quarter-acre or larger lots will b0eated by grotmd-water heat pumps M Gene Bylinsky, "Water to Burn," Fortune, Octo-

20, 1980. For more information on heat pump* see Wim Sumner,

Anlrrtic4uction to Heat PurriPs (Dorset, Englan& Prism Press, 1976),

Dana M. Armitageet al., "Groundwatel Heat Pumps. An Examinationof HydrAgeologic, Entironmental, Legal, and Economic Factors Affect-ing Their Use," National Well Water Association, Worthington, Ohio,unpublished, November 12, 198o, and Paul Lineau, "Heat Pumps and

Geothermal," Ceoltleat Utilization Center Quarterly Bulletin, March

1980.Geothermal power figures are from Difippo, "Geothermal PowerPlants." Although geothermal projects can bi as lyge as .1,CCO mega-watts, the individual power plants are kept small to avoid the costly andwasteful long.distance transportation of hot water and steam '

17. For a thorough discussion of the different electricity-gen-erating tec

nelogies and operating experience to date, see Ronald DiPippo, Ceother-(mal Energy as a Source of Electricity (Washington, D.0 U-S Depart-ment of Energy, i98o)' . Information about the Geysers is from the 'Pacific Gas & Electric Company, "The Oeystrs Pbwer Plant Develop-ment," unpublished, ,March 26, 1982. The figures in the table jse-,

3 9 04 i/

.1,

Notes (pages 223-229),

377

conserrativ,e since they simply show announced plans for various coun-tries as collected by DiPippo and the UN Technical Panel The actual

. total could be much higler as shown by the ta6ct that the Philippines nowplans to have 1209 MW by 1989, compared with, the earlier estimateof 1225 MW by 2000.

18 The W'airakei plant is described in DiPippo, othermal Energy as aSource of Electricity. , . .

19 Fred L. Hartley, "The Future of Geothermal Energy as an Alternativet nergy Source," presented to the Second .ASCOPE Conference andExhibition, Manila, Philippines, Ostober ro, 1981. ,

20 The prospects for double flash plants were described by David Anderson,Geothermal Resources Oouncil, private communication, June i 87 1982.

. 21 The binary plant design is discussed in DiPippo, Geothermal Energy asI a Sourcg of, ElectriFity, and U.S Congress, General Accounting Office,

Elimination of Federal Funds fot the Heber Project Will Impede FullDevelopment and Use of Hydrothermal Risources' (Washington, D.C..

. June 25, 1981) - ..

22 Dual use of geothermal water in Japan is described in Wilson Clark andJake Page, Energy, Vulnerability, and War (New York. W W NortonandCo , 1981) and by Jon Gudmundsson, private communication, April

, #1982. A .

23 The .quality of Reykjavik geothermal water is discussed in IlitaveitiReykjavikur .Projesf1 closings due to corrosion are described by JamesBrezep U.S Department of Energy, private comniunication, December18, 1981 Hydrogen sulfide emissions and control information are de-scribed in DiPippo, Geothermal Energy as a Source of Electricity andJ Laszlo, "Application of the Stretford Process for HA Abatement atthe Geysers," Pacific Gas & Electric Ca, San Francisco, unpublished,

,. 1976.24 DiPippo, Geothermal Energy as a Source of Electricity.25 Rate of subsidence at Wairakei is discussed in "Geothermal Energyand

Our Environment," U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, D.0 ,unpublished, undated. For general discussion of the envirodmental im-pacts of geothermal develOpment, see M J Pasqualetti, "GeothermalEnergy and the Environment The Global Experience," Energy, Vol. 5,No 2, 1980, and A J. Ellis, "Geothermal Energy Utilization and theEnvironment," Mazingira, Vol. '5, No. 1.

26 "Thcklydrothermal Push Cools," Business Week, September 14, 1981.27. Early test results are described in "SRI. Future Dim for Gulf Geother-

nWl Resources," Oil and Gas Journal, March 16, 1981. Disappointmentin t e oil industry was noted by David Anderson, Geothermal Resources

..°,

. 3 9

..

;

..

378 Notes (pages 229-230. .

Council, private communication, June 18, 1982 For more information-on geopressured resources, see D. C. Bebout and D. R. Girtierrey,"Geopressured Geothermal ResoUrce in Texas and Louisiana, Geologi-cal Constraints," presented at the Geothermal Resources Council FifthAnnual Meeting, Houston, Texas, October 25-29, 1981, and 0. C.Kirkalits, "Economics of Energy'from Geopressured çeothermal Reser-ioirs," also presented at the Geothermal Resources Council Fifth An-

:. nual Meeting. . .

28. The Cornwall project is sponsored by the British Government and theEurOpean Economic Commission, while the Fenton Hill Project is beingundertaken bc, the governments of Japan, the United States and WestGermany. For more information on the Cornwall -project, see AnthonyS. Batchekir, "The Status of Hot Dry Rock in the United Kingdom,"presented to the Third Annual Los Alamos National Laboratory HotDry Rock Geothermal Information Conference, Santa Fe, New Mexico,October 28-29,198o, and "Energy from Hot Rocks," Energy Manage-ment, January 1981. For more information on the Fenton Hill project,see G. A. Zyvoloski et al., "Hot Dry Rock Geothermal Energy," Ameri-

- can Scientist, July/August 1981, and E. I.,. Kaufman apd C. L. B.Siciliano, eds., Environmental Analysis of the Fenton Hill Rot Dry RockGeothermal Test Site (Washington, D.C.. U.S. Department of Energy,May 1979). For further discussion of hot dry rock, see Ronald G Cum-mings et al., "Mining Earth's Heat. Hot Dry Rock Geothermal Energy,"Technology Review, Febniary.1979, and M. C. Smith, "The Future ofHot Dry Rock Geothermal presented at the PressureVessels and Piping Conference, Sa Francisco, California, June 25-29,,1979. .

...,

29. Temperatures of loo&G to i zoo*G have been encountered in volcanic

drilling tests in Hawaii according to Jon Gudmundsson, Stanford Uni-versity, private communication, Apfil 25, 1981 Development plans f6rthe Avachinski Volcano were reported in "scoo MW GeothermalPower Plant?," Energy in Countries with Planned Economies, Decem-

, ber 14, t977.1nformation on use of magma on island of Heimaey is fromGudmundsson, private communication, 'April 26, 1982. Outlook formagmatic energy is from "Report of the Technical Panel on GeothermalEnergy."

30. For 2n example of a national resource assessment, see L. J. lkuffler,'ed., Assessment of Geothermal Resources of the United States-1978(Washington, D... U.S. Geological Survey, 1970 Even in the U.S.,which has conducted a relatively thorough resource assessment, an es-timated 8o percent of the total resource has not been located according. .

."

3 92 ,

...

,

Notes (pages a3o-232) 379

to the Interagency Geothermal Coordinating Council, Fifth AnnualReport (Washington, D.0 July 1981)

31 Legal status of geothermal energy is discussed in "Report of the Techni-cal Panel on Geothermal Energy," and Kenneth A. Wonstolen, "Geo-thermal Energy Basic Legal Parameters," presented at the geotheimalResources Council Fourth-Annual Meeting, Salt Lake City, Utah, Sep-tember 8-11, 1980.

32 The Yellowstone controversy is discussed in Joan Nice, "Energy. Geo-thermal Lease Plans Threaten Yellowstone's Geysers," Audubon, May1982 Conflicts in Japan are discussed in "What About QkothermalPowers" PRIEE News, MayJuneJuly, 1982.

33 UniOn Oil's mle m the Philippines program is described in "Pacific'sRing of Fire Spews Geothermal Electric Pow1r," Christian ScienceMonitor, tSeptember 18, 1980. For a discussion of bi- and multi-lateralassistance to developing countries, see James .B. Koenig, James R.McNitt and Murray C, Garner, "Geothermal Power Developments inthe Third World," presented to the Geothermal Resources CouncilFifth Annual Meeting, Houston, Texas, Qctober 25-29, 1981.

34 A descriptiOn of the French program is found in Ministère de l'Industriedu Commerce, et de l"Artisanat, La Geothermic en France (Paris.1978) Iceland's program was described by JOn Cudmundsson, StanfordUniversity, private communication, April 25, 1982. The U.S. programis described in "Federal'Cost-Sharing for Exploration of HydrothermalReservoirs for Direct Applications," Division of Geothermal Epergy,U S Department df Energy, Washington, D C., unpublished, 1980.

35 According to a study by the Electric Power Research Institute,;:lsepribedin Bob Williams, "Actisn in Geothermal Energy Picking Up eed inU S ," Oil and CaelouAnal, May 3, 1982, loss of federal support coulddelay indefinitely development of about half of the easily exploitableU 5 geothermal resources U.S, tax incentives are described in RichardW Bliss, "Federal 1.,egislatior4 Affecting Geothermal Development,"presented to the Conference on Geothermal Energy. The InstitutionalMaze and Its Changing Structure, Newport Beach,Calif., December1,-2, 1981 The question of the effectiveness and equitability of tax

. incentives is discussed in Charles V Higbee, "Pricing Direct-Use Geo,v,thermal Energy," presented at the Geothermal Resources CouncilFourth Annual Meeting, Salt Lake City, Utah, September 8-11, 1980.

36 Financial and institutional issues surrounding district heat proiects aICdiscussed in Diana King, "District Heating. Legal, Institutional, andPublic Relations Aspects," presented to the Conference on GeothermalEnergy The Institutional Maze and Its Changing Structure.

393


37. U.S. utilities' outlook on geothermal prAjxts is described in John TNimmons, "Current Public Utility Consiaerations for GeothermalPower Producers and Direct Heat Distributors," presented at the Geo-

thermal Resources Council Fifth Annual Meeting, Houston, Texas,October 25-29, 1981. teveral utilities in the western U.S. have goneto great length to avoid geothermal involvement according to Bandy

Stephans, U.S. Department of Energy, private communication, De-cember 29, 1981. The point regarding geothermal power's reliabilitywas made by R. P. Wischow, Geysers Project Manager for the Pa-cific Gas & Electric Company, private communication, August 16,

1982.38. Rate of growth of geothermal generating capacity since the mid-seven-C

ties is derived from Roberts, "Geothermal Energy," and DiPippo, "Geo-

thermal Power Plants." ProjeCtions of future use 2re based on "Reportof the Technical Panel on Geothermal Energy," and Roberts, "Geother-mal Energy." ,

39. Current direct use figure is from Gudmundsson and P2lmason, WorldSurvey, and JOn Cudmundsson, Stanford University, private communi-cation, November 24, 1981. Direct USC projections 2TC from Gudmunds-

sop, private communication, May 24, 1982, and Roberts, "GeothermalEnergy." Iceland's residential heating goal is from Cudmundsson and

Pilmason, World Survey. France's resource potential and utilizationgoals are from "France 2nd Geothermal PowerA Source with 'Enor-mous' Potential," Christian Science Monitor, October 1, 1980. Future

estimates are the authors'. .

40. Potentials in Canada, China and the USSR are from JOri Cuarriundsson,Stanford University, private communication, November 24, 1981. Num-ber of 'hot spots' in China from "China's Crowing Geothermal ME-7\4Energy in Countries with Planned Economies, November 2, 1979. Di-rect use projects in the U.S. are described in Casseliet al., ''NationalForecast for Geothermal Resource Exploratio'n and Development," pre-pared for the U.S. Department of Energy, unpublished, March 31,

1982. .

41. National plans are from DiPippo, "Geothermal Power Plants " Mexico'splans are described in "Report of the Technical PaneJ on Geothermal

Energy." The El Salvador figure is from DiPippo, Geothermal Energy

as a Source of Electricity.42. The Philippines program is discussed in Bob Williams, "Many Coun-

tries Tapping Geothermal," Oi/ & Gas Journal, May lo, 1982, see also

Philippines Ministry of Energy, Ten-Year Energy Program. 1980-1989(Manila: 1980).

3 9 1


Chapter ii Working Together: Renewable Energy'sPotential

Authors' estimates are based on data from Organisation for EconomicCo-operation and Development (OECD), Energy Balances of OECDCountries (Paris. 1978), Joy Dunkerley, ed , Intemakonal Comparisonsof Energy Consumption (Washington, D C.. Resources for the Future,1978), U.S Department of Energy, Annualplieport to Congress, 1980(Wastnirirtm, D.C,. 1981), and U S. Congress, OlAce of TechnologyAssess , Residential Energy Conservation (N7ashington, D.C..

1979).2., The potential for energy conservation in existing buildings is explored

in Robert H. Socolow, ed., Savino Energy in the Home. Princeton'sExperiments at Twin Rivers (Cambridge, Mass.. Ballinger, 1978). Thepotential for energy conservation in new houses is explored in WilliamA Shurcliff, Superinsulated Houses and Double-Envelope Houses(Cambridge, Mass privately published, 1980) Recent energ); trends inbuildings are from Eric Hirst and Bruce Hannon, "Effects of EnergyConservation Jr1 Residential and Commercial Buildings," Science, Au-gust 17, 1979, "Ener,gy Conservation," OECD Observer, November1979, Joy Dunkerley, Trends in Energy Use in Industrial Societies(Washington, D.C.. Resources for the Future, 1980 and InternationalEnergy Agency, Energy Policies and Programmes of IEA Countries1981 Review (Paris. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and De-velopment, 1982).Passive solar architecture is described in detail in Chapter 3 Thtoughoutthis chapter we discuss renewable energy technologies that are exploredmore fully in earlier chapters and rely on the reader to search out thedetails. Estimates of future use that are not referenced are the authors'and are based on material in earlier chapters.

4 Davis' programs and achieveinents are described in David Morris, Self-Reliant Cities. Energy and the Transformation of Urban America (SanFrancisco. Sierra Club Books, 1982).

5 Energy use in Japan's industry is discussed in International EnergyAgency, Energy Policies and Programmes Energy uie in .f:)viet industry

is discussed in U.S Congress, Office of Technology Assessment, Tech-nology and Soviet Energy Availability (Washington, D.C1. 1981). En-ergy use in the industries of rapidly industriahzing Third World coun-tries is discussed in the World Bank, Energy in the Developing Countries(Washington, D.C.: 1980)

6. Spending of energy-intensive U.S. industries is a U.S. Department of

4,

3 95


Energy estimate cited in "Energy Conservation Spawning a Billion-Dollar Business," Business Week, April 6, 1981 Energy use trends inthe ,mdustnal countries are found in International Energy Agency, En-ergy`Policies and P!ogrammes.

7. Solar Energy Research Institute, A New Prosperity. Building A Renew-*, able Energy Future (Andover, MaSS': Brick House, 498 1).

8! Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Energy forWorld Agriculture (Rome. United Nations, 1979). In developing coun-tries much of the energy used in agriculture is uncounted in these figuresIf biomass energy and the work expended by people and draft animalswere included, agriculture ,Would claim a substantially larger share of

total energy use.9. The potential uses of renewable energy in U S. agriculture arediscussed

in Kevin Finneran, "Solar on the Farm,"Sun Times, March/April 1982,o. Walter G. Heid, Jr.,. U.S. Department of Agriculture, "Using Solar

Energy to Dry Crain,An Economic Evaluation:: paper presented atthe High Plains Energy Fortim, Dodge City, Kansas, October zo, 1979;Walter C. Heid, Jr. and Warren K. Trotter, Progress of 'Solar Technol-ogy and Potential Farm Uses (Washington, D.C.. U.S. Department of

Agriculture, 1982).. Robert V. Enochian, Solar- and IVind-Fowered Irrigation Systems

(Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Agriculture, 1982).12. The World Bank, Renewable Energy Resources in the Developing Coun-

tries (Washington, D.C.: 1980).13. The results of the Conference are described in United Nations Confer-

ence on New and Renewable Sources of Energy, "Programme of Ac-tion," Nairobi, Kenya, August 21, 1981. See also Charles Drucker,"UNERC: UnfortunatelY Unproductive," Soft Energy Notes, Oc-tober/November 198.1 , and Margarei R. Biswas, "The United NationsConference on New and Renewable Sources of Energy: A Review,"

- Mazingira, Vol. 5, No, 3,*1981.14. Erik Eckholm, Planting for the Future. Forestry for Human Needs,

Worldwatch Paper 26 (Washington, D.C.. Worldwatch Institute, Feb-

ruary J979).15. John Ashworth, "Renewable Energy for the World's Pair," Technology

Review, November 1979.16. Although diesel engines are widely used in rural areas, there is a dearth

of surveys indicating their numbers and reliability Anecdotal evidenceprovided by individuals who have traveled i)Itidely in developing countriesindicates that the machines are out of order more often than not Thisissue deserves stiidy since if initial indications are right, diesel engines

396

A

,e

Notes (pages 247.251) 383

should beintroduced more carefully and in many cases be replaced byrenewable energyttechnologies.

17. Potential use of these technologies in the rural Third World is discussedin John H. Ashworth and Jean W Neuendorffer, Matching RenewableEnergy Systems to Village-Level Energy Needs (Golden, Colo . U SSolar Energy Research Institute, 1980), Gerald Foley, "The Future ofRenelivable Energy in Developing Countries," Ambia, Vol lo, No 5,1981,4and World Bank, "Working Paper on Research and Technologi-cal Capacity for.the Use of Renewable Energy Resources, DevelopingCountries," unpublished, October 30, 1980.

18. This figure is hased on the world's using about 55 million barrels of oilper day of which around 25 percent goes to ground 2nd air transporta-hon. There are 159 liters in 2 barrel For more detailed breakdowns, seeU S. Department of Energy, 1980 International Energy Annual (Wash-ington, D C.:.1981).

19. New cars sold in the United States averaged 14 2 miles per gallon in1974 and 22.4 miles per gallon in 1980 ac-cording toEric Hirit et al.,Energy Use from 1973 to 1980 'The Role of Improved Energy Efficiency(Oak Ridge Tenn. Oak Ridge National Laboratory, December 1981).The United States uses approximately loo billion gallons of gasolineeach year or ii 25 million gallons each hour at 2n average price of $1 25per gallon. These figures c2n be found in U S Department of Energy,Annual Report to Congress 198.0.

20. Synthetic fuels are discussed in more detail in Chapter 221. The prospects for electricity storage Ostems and electric cars are exam-

ined in U.S. National Research Council, "Energy Storike fgt. SolarApplications:* unpublished, 1980, U.S Congress General Aciounting

.4. Office, Electric Vehicles. Limited Range and HiglkCosts Hamper Com-mercialization (Washington, D.C.. 1982) and David Bloor, "Plasticsthat Conduct Electricity," New Scientist, March 4, 1982.

22. The prospects for hydrogeri fuel 2re discussed in Peter Hoffman, TheForever Fuel. The Story of Hydrogen (Boulder, Colo. Westview Press,1981), Rif S. El-Mallakh, "Fuel kr Thought. The Hydrogen-PoweredAutomobite7' Environment, April 1981. New processes for separatinghydrogen using sunlight directly arc being developed by several teamsof scientists, sec for example "LBL Develops Single, InexpensiveMeth4for Dissociation of Water with Sunlight," Solar Energy Intelli-gence Report," September 27 1982, and "Texas A & M Hails CheapHydrogen," Energy Daily, Octhber 12, 1982.

23 Quote from Christopher Pope, "Slow Dov.J1 in tre Fast lane Transpor-tation in the 80's," New Roots, Winter 1982.

397

84 . Notes (pages 252-255) ffri

24..Authors' estimates based on Joy Dunker ley, Trends in Energy Use in ,Industrial' Societies, and United Nations, 1979 Yearbook of World En-ergy Statistics (New york: 1981).

25 -Ellish L. Armstrong, History of Public Works in the United States, *".a

1776-1976 (Chrgo American Public Works Association, 1976), How-ard Brown and Tom Stomolo, Decentralizing Electrical Production(New Haven, Conn.. Yale Universfty Press, 1981).

26 A good discussion of the difficultis utilitip face andoptions for alleviat-ing them is found in John Bryson7Chainnan, California Public UtilitiesCommission, "The Future of Electrical Utilities," uhpublished, 1981and jallICS A. Walker, "It Takes Real Monty to Run Utilities. Costs ofFuture Powet Options," California Energy Commission, unpublished, .

September 14, 1982.27. U.S research into renewable e technologies is described

in Elizabeth Baccelli and Karen Gor lectric Utility Soler EnergyActivities. 1981 Survey (Palo Alto, Calif.. Electric Power Research Insti-tute, 1982). California utilities' growing commitment to renewable en-ergy sources is described in Phillip A. Greenberg, "Conservation andRenewable Resources in California's Energy Future," California Gover-nor's Office, unpublished, February 1982 and California Energy Com-mission, "Exploring New Energy Choices for California: The1982/1983 fieport to the Legislature unpublished, March 1982.

28 A program for combined development of wind power and hydropoweris described in Clifford Barrett, "Bureau of Reclamation's Wind/Hy-droelectric Energy Pioject;" presented to the Fourth Biennial Confer-ence and Workshop op Wind Energy, Washington, D.C., 'October29-31, 1979,

29. John W. Shupe, "Energy Self-Sufficiency for Hawaii," Science, June ii,1982, Philippines Ministry of Energy, Ten-Year Energy Program, 1980-,989 (Manila. 1980), Bonneville Power Administration, "A Conserva-

. tion Manifesto," unpublished, January 26, 1982 BaCCelli and,Gordon,'Electric Utility Solar Energy Activities. European wind power develop-ment is described in Chapter 9.

. 30. It is not unusual fot.electricity costs to vary by a factor of five or ten forindividual power plants within the same utility grid. Renewable energytechnologies will make their first contribution as substitutes for the mostexpensive sources and gradually phase out less expensive plants as thenew technologies matiiie.

31. This point is emphasized in World Bank, Energy in the Developing. Countries (WaShington, D.C.: 1980).

32. This estimate and the figures in the table are based on the assessmenti

398

0notes (pages 255-265) 385

of the individual renewabk energy sourccs in earlier chapters Generallythe potential of each energy source g discussed at the end of each

of`chapter33 This slow growth in,energy use is likely to result from a combination of

price-,induced consenation and .moderate economic growth In mostindustrial countries overall energy use will likely grow less than i percenteach year while in developing countries, 2 tO 4 percent per year is thilikely growth rate

Chapter r2. Institutions for the Transition

1 Between 19oo and 198o the U S Government spent $1 billion on all:renewable energy sources other than hydropower, $15 billion on fiydro-power, and $240 billion op fossil and nuclear energy accvding to 11W.Cone et ar.An Analysis of Federal Incentives Used to Stimulate Energy

tia Production, Battelle Pacific Northwest Laboratory report to U.S De-partment of Energy, February 1980 This length'y report is summarizedin B W Cone and R H Bezdek, "FeCleral Incentves for Energy Devel-opments," Energy, Vol 5, No 5, 'May 1980. For a description ofattitudes toward solar energy in the heyday of atomic energy erAhusiasm,see Lamont C Hempel, "The Politics of Sunshine," Ph.D Diss , Clare-mont College,. 1982 ... ,

2 International Energy Agency, Energy kesearch, Development and Dern-onstration tri the lEA Countries, 1981 Review of National Programmes(Pans. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development/International Energy Agency, 1982) _

3 Ibid4, For i discussion of budget cutbacks in the U.S , see Jim Harding,

"Reagan Cuts Solar," Soft Engrgy Notes, April/May 1981. Budget cutsin the U.K are described in "Recession Bites into U.K. Solar," WorldSolar Markets, November 1981 -

5 For a discussion of the management issucs common to all R&15 enter-prises, see U.S Congress, Office of Technology Assessment, Govern-ment Involvement in the Innovation Plocess (Washington, D.0 1979),and J Herbert Holloman et al., "Government and the Innovation Pro-cess," Technology Review, May 1979. For a provocative defense ofexpanded, balanced energy R&D programs, see Don Kash et 21., OurEnergy Future. The Role of Research, Development, and Demonstrationin Reaching a National Consensus on Energy Supply (Norman, OklaUniversity of Oklahoma Press, 1976).

6 New Energy Development Organizahon and Japanese External T )1 de

399

386 . Notes (pages 265-268)

Organization, laPanese New Energy Technologies (Tokyo. 1981) EurO-pean solar programs 2re discussed in Sherri Barron, "Iflmeria," Cana-dian Renewable Energy News, November 1981, and French Solar En:ergy Authonly (Commissariat a l'Energie Solaire), ;France and theDevelopment cif New and Renewabk, Energies," Aparecl for theUnited Nations Conference on New anoi Renewable Sources Of Energy, -

Kenya,Augutt 10-21, 1981.7J.For a-description of political meddling and vacillation in the U.S Go"v-

ernment's solgr energy program, see William Rice, "Cash FAA, in Con-gress," Solar Age, October 1979, and U.S. Congress, General Account-ing Office, "Loss of Experienced Staff Affects Corrervation andRenewable Energy Programs," Washington, D.C., July 1982.

8. Allen L. Hammond and William D. Metz, "Solar Energy Research.el Making Solar After the Nuclear Model?," Science, July 15, ,1977, W,

D. Metz, "Solar Thermal Electricity. Porr Tower Dominates Re-search," Science, July zz, 1977, liay Reece, The Sun Betrayed. A Reporton the Corporate Seizure of U.S. Solar Energy Development (Boston,Mass.: South End Press, 1979). ,

9. For discussion Of ,research priorities in biomass, see Roger Revellk"Energy Dilemmas in Asia. The Needs for Research 2nd Development,"Science, July 4, 1980, R. A. Yates, Iliomass Production Technology:Current Status and Research Needs (Booker Agricultural International,Ltd., July 1980, 2nd Committee on Foreign Affairs,,,U,S. House of -

Representatives, Background Papeit for Innovative Biological Technolo-gies for the Lesser Develoied,,Oountries, an Office of Tech iology Assess-ment Workshop, NoveMber 24-25, 1980 (Washington, D.C.: U.S. '

Government Printing Office, 1981).10. For a discussion of the small wind turbine test center at Rocky Flats,

see Richard Williams, "An Update on'Activities at Rocky Flats," pre-sented to the Fourth Biennial Conference 2nd Workshop on WindEnergy, Washington, D.C., October 29-31, 1970 Denmark's smallwind turbine test center is described in B. Maribo Pederson, TechnicalUniversity of Denmark, private communication, April 6, 1981.

11. U.S. Congress, Office of Technology Assessment, The Role of Demon-strations in Federal R &D Policy (Washington, D.C. July 1978), Frank-lin it. Lindsay, "Financing High Cost, High-Risk Energy Develop-ment," Harvard Business Review, November/December 1978.

I 2. R. S. Claassen, "Materials for Advanced Energy Technologies," Science,Februiry zo, 1976, "GAO Finds Supply of Nine Minerals 'Critical' to '

Development of Alternative Energy," Energy & Minerals Resources,

Notes (pages 268-274 387

September 18, 1981, W B Big, "New Materials and Composites,"Science, February zo, 1976, Harry Z Tabor "Materials Technology In 0,The Harnessing of Solar Energy," Sunworld , April 1982

13 For a discussion of Third World research priorities, see World Bank,Mobilizing Renewable Energy Technology in Developing CountriesStrengthening Local Capabilities and Research (Washington, D C July1981)

14 For a discussion of resource assetsment, see National Academy ofSciences, Proceedings International Workshop on Energy Survey Me-

. thodologies for Developing Countries, January 21-25, 198o (Washing-ton, D C.. National Academy Press, r980).

15 Ivan Mich, "Vernacular Values," CoEvolution Quarterly, Summer1980, Laura Nades et al , "Belief, Behavior and Technologies as DrivingForces in Transitional StagesTRF People Problem in Dispersed En-ergy Fututes," in Centralized vs Decentralized Energy Systems. Diverg-ing or Parallel Roads', a report psepared for the Subcommittee onEnergy and Power of the Committee on Interstate and Foreign Com-merce, U S House of Representatives (Washington, D C. Congressio-nal Research Service, May 1979)

16 "Field Test Finds Solar Panels Fail Too Fast," The Energy Daily,August 12, 1981, "High Winds Topple, Smash,Mirrors at France'sPrized Solar Station," The Energy Daily, January 21, 1982

17 U S tongress, General Accounting Office, Federal Demonstrations ofSolaik Heating and Cooling on Commercial Buildings Have Not BeenVery Effective (Washington, D.0 April 14, 143o)

18 For chnussion of the Sanman Gorge Dam and solar colleetors in theSahel, Ae Chapters 8 and 4.

19 John Ashworth, "Technology Diffusion Through Foreign AssistanceMaking Renewable Energy Sources Available to the World's Poor, Pol-icy Sciences, Summer t980, P Greenwood and C.W. Perrett, "Genera-ting the Links Between Engine&s and Rural Villages, Papua NewGuinea," Opropriate Technology, March 1982...1

zo For a discussion of the role of "do-it-yourselfers"'arid bnkerers, see HarryC. Boyte, The Backyard Revolution Understanding the New Citizens'Movement (Philadelphia. Temple University Press, 1980), David Brand,"Some Small Innovators Heat Homes by Sun, Light Them by Wind,"Wall Street lourrial, March 18, 1975, and Stephen Salter, "The Perilsof Being Simple," New Scientisi, February 25; 1982.

2t. For more details on the China/India blogas comparisop, see Chapter 7.22 Caroline E Mayer, "CPSC Wood-Stove Fires Doubld," Washington

4 0.1

1/4.

\;.. 388 Notes (pages-274-2771

Post, December 18, 1981, Christopher Pope, "Specialization, Standardsand Speed, Hilmarks of Maturing Solar Installers Industry," RenewableEnergy News Nay 1982.

23 Villiam Ramsay and Elizabeth Shue, "Infraitructure Problems forRural New and Renewable Energy Systems," journal of Energy pndDevelopment, Spring 1981.

24. The difficulties in regulating dispersed sources of pollution are desCribed

in Steve Plotkin, "Biomass Energy Ad the Environment," Environ-ment, June 1980 For a discussion of the problems witfi operating cata-lytic Combusters, see Elissa Krzeminski, "The Catalytk Combuster,"New Roots, January 1982.

23. U.S. Congress;General Accounting Office, "New England Can ReduceIts Oil Dependence Through Cottarvation and Renewable kesourceDevelopment" (Washington, D.C.. Jun4 1981), summarized in Rush-wOrth M. Kidder, "New. England Shows US. How to Cut Back on Useof Energy," Christian Science Monitor, June 24, 1981. .

26. For an overview of North American oil pricing isiues, see John Kraft"Crude Oil Price Controls. Their Purpose and Impact," DenverJOurnal

of International Law and Policy, Winter 1979, U S Congressional Bud-get Office, The I.:pcontrol of Domestic Oil Prices, An Overyiew (Was)-

*. / ington, D.C.. angtessional Budget Office, May 1979) ancl RobertStobaugh and Daniel Yergin, "Decontrol the Price of OilNow,:kNewYork Times, January 18, 1981.

27. U.S. Congress, Office of Technology Assessment, Technology and Soviet

Energy Availability (Washington, D.C.. 1981), Marshall. I Goldman,The Enigma of Soviet Petroleum. Half-Full or Half-Empty? (Boston.George Allen & Unwin, 1986), Marshall I. Goldman, "Energy Policy inthe Soviet Union and 'China," in Hans H. Lana-erg; red., SelectedStuaies on- Energy, Background Papers for Energy. 'The Next TwentyYears (Cambridge, Mass.: Ballinger, 1980).

28. Dennis W: f)akke; "Energy in Non-OPEC DevelolAng Countries," 'inHans H. Landsberg, ed., Selected Studies on Energy The Next TwentyYegrs (Cambridie, Mass.. Ballinger, 1980), Douglas Martin, "The VeryMixed Blessings of Pure Liquid Gold," New f'arlt Times, May 23, 1982;Douglas Martin,-"Salldi CUM for Car iS Bott; a Blessing and a Blignt,"New York Times, January 2 2, 1982; Jonathan Spivak, "Nigeria,'Hit' byPlunge in Petroleum Exports, FaCeS Paintul Changes," Wall StreetJournal, August 2, 198t, Dial Torgerson, "Mexico's Gas-Cuzzling CarsAnibushed by Doubled Price at the Pump," Los Angeles Times, January3, 1982.

29. Amulya Kumar N. Reddy, "Alternative Energy Policies for Develoiing

402


Countries A Case Study of India," in Robert A. Bohm et al., eds ,

World Energy"Production and Productivity, Proceedings of the Interna-tional Energy Symposium I, (Cambridge, Mass Ballinger, 1981)

3o Hans H Lansberg and Joseph M Dukert, High Energy Costs Uneveri,Unfair, Unavoidable' (Baltirntre,,Md. The Johns Hopkins UniversityPress, 1981), Elizabeth Cecelski et al., Household Energy and the Poor

si in the Third World (Washington, D C Resources for the Future,1979)-,. Douglas R Sease, "High Cisohne Prices are Hurting the RuralPoor, Who Often Face Long Drives to Jobs, Medical Care," Wall Street

, Journal; August 17, Dm, James O'Toole, Energy & Social Change(dambridge, Mass. MIT Press, 1978).

:

,i 31 For a discussionipf the possible uses of oil revenues for energy develop-. ,ment in the U S , see The White House, ihe Energy Security Act A,

Natiotkal Imperative (Washington, D.0 June isivol Sn Lanka's pro-gram as scussed in detail in Chapter 6.

¶ 32 "Venezue Sets Five-Year Plan for New Energy Development," LatinAmerican Eny Report, August 13, 1981, Bob Shallit, "Alaska Hydro-electric Plans Aren't Simply Water Over a Dam,... Wall Street Journal,July 8, 1981, "Saudi Arabia and Solar Energy," ARAMCO World,September/October 1981 DaNid B. Ottaway, "Saudis Plot Oil ProfitsInto Agriculture;.: Washington Post, Decemb...?r 7, 1981. ,

33 For an overview-of the lost momentum in the West in the early eighties,see Daniel Yergin and Martin Hillenbrand, cds , Global Insecurity AStrategy for Energy and Economic Renewal (Boston. Houghto MifflinCo , 1982), "Energy-SuFficient Britain facem Crisis of Identi y," Finan-cial Times.Energy Economist'Oril 1982, and "Holland S dying ItsNatural Cas Policy," Journal of Commerce, August 31, 1982..,

34, Mabbub ul Hag, "Financing the.Energy Transition," presented to theNortb-South Roundtable Seminar at the United Nations Conference onNew and Ren_epable Sources of Energy, Nairobi, Kenya, August 10--21,1981, World Bank, Energy in the Developing Countries (Washington,D C Auglist 1989), World Bank, Renewable Energy RtsOurces in theDeveloping'Cantries (Washington, DC. November 198o), MauriceStrong anAlahbub ul Hag, The Castal Gandolfo Report on RenewableEnergy Policies and Options, p;esented to the North-South RoundtableSeminar at the United Nations Conference on New "and RenewableSoukes of Energy, Nairobi, ,Ksenya, August 10--21, 1981.

35 Coli9 Norman, "U S Derails Energy Plan for Third World," Scienet,-April 3, 1981, Roger S Leeds, Co Financing for Development. Why ,yotMore' (Washington, D.0 ,Overseas Development Council, 1982)

. 36 Thornas.Hoffman..andArian Johnson, The World Energy Triangle A

4 3

CK.

390 Notes (pages 2.8.1-284)

Strategy for Cooperation (Cambridge, Mass . Ballinger, 1981), AndrewMacKillop, "Energy for the Developing Worrd A Critique of the NewWisdom," Energy Policy, December 198o, Andrew MacKillop, "GlobalEconomic Change ansl New Energy," Energy Policy, December 1981

37. For a description of China's iiflition of labor, see Robert P Taylor,Rural Energy Development in Chin (Washington, D C Resources forthe Future, (982). The CineseJ1ve been less successful in harnessing

- labor for large-scale projects, see, for example, James Sterba, "Huge DamTalneS Yangtze and Gives Chinese a Lift," New York Times, May 20,

1981.38. "Tax Facts," Soft Energy Notes, October/November 1981; D. Chap-

man, Taxation and Solar Energy (Sacramento, Calif.. California Energy

Com inission, April. 1978).39. Leonard Rodberg and Meg Schachter, State Conservation and Solar

Energy Tax Programs. Incentives or Windfalls? (Washington, D.C.:The Council of State Planning Agencies, 1980) Brazil's subsidies foralcohol "fuel are discussed in "What is the Real Price of 'green gaso-line'?," Financial Times Energy Economist, April 1982.fteven Ferrey,"Solar Banking. Constructing New Solutions to the UrbPi Energy Cri-sis:: Harvard Journal of Legislation, Sumgrr 1981.

40. Jonathan Lloyd-Owen, "Japan," Canadian Renewable Energy News,August 1981, New 'Energy Development Organization, Japanese NewEnergy Tichnelogies (Tokyo: Japan External Trade Organizationo1981).

41. Canadian Home Insulation Program, prepared for the use of the Com-mittee on Interstate and Foreign Commerce and the Committee onBanking Finance 2nd Urban Affairs, U.S. House of Representatives(Washington, D.C.. UTS..Sovernment Printing Office, November z,t1979). The Forestry Induly Renewable Energy program is discussyin Chapter 6, nott 20.

42. llince Taylor:"Electric Utilities; A Time of Tweron," Environmen,y 1981; Alvin L. Alm ahd banierA, Dreyfus, Utilities in Crisis: A

Problem in Governance (New York: Aspen Institute for HumanisticStudies, 1982), Anthony j. Parisi, ''Utilifies Have Cause To Thah TheirCritics," New York. Times, Septembek 1980.

43. Richard Corrigan, il.rtilities Paying Pribe for Countifig on DemandGrowth that'Never Came:: National Journal, October 17, 1981; JimHarding, "Electric Forecasting: Round to the Nearest Trillion," SoftEnergy News, October/Novenlher 1980, Raphael PapadopOulos, "Com-munications on Energy. Growth and Overcapacity in the UK ElectricityIndustry," Energy Policy, June 1'981, JOhn E. Bryson, "Electric Utilities:

Notes (iages 284-288) 391.

The Next Ten Years," presented to thc California Public Utilities Com-mission Symposium on Energy Utilities, Stanford, yalif,, March 27,

,1981

44 Albin J Dahl, "California's Lifeline Policy," Public UtilitieFortnigny,August 31, i978

45 Demand management successes are discussed in J G Asbury et al.,"Electric Heat The Riglit Price- at the Right Time," Technology Re-view, December 1979/January 1980

46 For an overview of Third World utility policies, see Mohan Munasmgheaelleremy 1 WarfordElectricity Pricing. Theory and Caie Studies(Baltimore, Md. The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1982). The needfor demand panagement and,Improved'-systems management is dis-cussed in Eric Jeffe, "Energy 'Profile of Brazil," Energy International,September 1976 Central lntelhgence Agettcy, Electric Powel forChi)Fa's Modernization- The Hydroelectric OpItioil (Washington, D.C..1980)

47 Barry Satlow, "The Energy SCCurity Act and Public Utilities. A YellowLight for Utility Solar Financing and Marketing," Solarlaw Reporter,January/February 198i, Jim Harding, "Selling Savings," Soft EnergyNotes, August/Septemlier 1980

48, bal, id Talbot and Richard E Morgan, Power & Light. Political Skate-gies for the Solgr. Transition- (New York. The Pilgrim Press, 1981),George Sterzinger, "Why Utilities Can'tjae Conservationists," Work-ing paperip:S.Otemb'er /October 1981 apdsreply,by D'avid Morris, "Utili-ties and Ciinservation," Working Papers, November/December 1981.

49 Walter J Pnmeux, Jr, , "The Decline in Electric Utility Competition,"Land Economics, May 1975, Jeffrey L. Harris% "Yirdstick Compd.bon 'A PrematurelyThscarded Form of 15,fulatory Relief," Tulane LaReview, 'February 1979.

50- Christopher Pope, "PURPk," Canadian Renewablanergy News, June, 1981, Waring Patridge, kA Road Map to Title I of thelPublioUtility

Regulatory Policies Act of 1978," Public Utilftiq Fortnightly,' January18, 1979, Promoting Sirtall Power Production Implènenting Section 210pf PURPA, (Washington, D.0 Solar Lobby/C ter for teneyable*Resources; 1981)

51, Roger D 'Colton, "Mandatory Utility Financin Conservation andSolar MeasuresL7 Solar Law Reporter, January/Fe ary 1982, EliZa-beth Bocci!). anl Karen Coition, Electric Utility Solar Energy Activities..1 981 Sin*CPalo Alto, Calif Electric Power Researchinstitute,;982).

52 For historY'of scale in utility industry, see M. Messing et al., CentralizedPower. The Politics of Scale in Electricity Generation (Cambridge,

. 405

4'

4

*4

392 Notes (pages 388,394)

MaSS . Oelgeschlager, Funn & Hain, 1979), 2nd N & Guyol, TheWorkElectric Power Industries (Berk*, Calif. University of Califor-nia PrAs, 1969).

53. "The Utilities Are Building Small," Business Week, MaIriz 17, 1980

54. Jack Doyle, Line Across the Land, Rural Electric Cooperatives TheChanging Politics of Energy in Rural America (Washington, D CRural Land and Energy Project, Environmental POlicy Institute, 1979);

"Small Utilities Put Wind, Other Solar Amon/Top Priorities for Long

Term," Solar Energy Intelligence Report, May 3, 1982, Daniel Deud-ney, "Public Power Lost. The Metamorphosis of Rural Electrification 41935i o8o," Working Papp; September/October 198.z.

55. For a discussion of the link between Brazil's alcohol fuels program 2nd ,2-the politically powerful sugar producers, see Hal Berton, Willian Kt:Wa-nk, and Scott Sklar, The Forbidden Fuel. Power Alcohol in the TwentiethCentury (New York: Boyd Griffin, Inc., 1982), For an overview of thepolitics of energy, see David Howard Davis, Energy Politics, 2nd ed.(New Yorlet: Martin's Press, 1978), 2nd Leon N. Lendberg, TheEnergy Syndrome. Comparing National Responses to the Energy Crisis '

(Lexington, Mass.: Lexington Books, 1977).56. Kathleen Courner, "Americans Want Solar Energy," Christian Science

Monitor, June 30, 1981, "Americans prefer Conservation to Nuclear by

4tatio of 7.2, New Survey Indicates," Solar Energy Intelligence Report,

January ii, ,982, 4.

57 Domestic-Policy Revitw of Solar Energy, A Memorandum to the Presi-

dent of the United Sates (Washington, D.C.. Gover*ent PrifitingOffice, February 1179), "Policy Review Boosts Solar al% Near-TermEnergy Option," Science, January 19, 1979; U.S. Congress, General

Accounting Office, "20 Percent Solar gnergy GoalIs There a Plan 'to

Attain It?," Washington, D.C., March 31, 1980.58. Center for Renewable Resources, Shining Examples Model Projects

Using Rena-able Resources (Washington, D C . 1980); National Gov:ernors' Association Energy and Natural Resources Program, Ensuring

Our Energy Future. State Initiatives for the 8o's (Washington, ac..National Governors Association, August 1980).

59, D. 'Pomerantz et al., Franklin County,Energy Study. A Renewable En-

ergy Scenario for the Future (Greenfield,Mass. Franklin County EnergyProject, 19*, summarized in G,Coates, ed., Resettling America (An-

dover, Mass.: Brick House, 1981).6o. M. N. Corbett and T. Ha deR, "Local Action for a Solar Future," Solar

Law. Reporter, JanuarFebruary 1981.61. Ronald D Brunner, ecentralized Energy Policies," Public Policy,

406

A

Notes (pages 394-300) 393'

Wmter 1980; M Hunt and D Bainbridge, "Thy Davis Experience,"Solar Age; May 1978, E Vine, SolanzIng America The Davis Experi-ence, (Washington, D C.. Conference on Alternative State and LocalPolicies, 1981), Peter Calthorpe with Susan Benson, "Beyond Solar.Design for Sustainable Communities" in Gary J Coates, ed., ResettlingAmenca Energy Ecology and Community (Andover, Mass Brick

House, 1981),62 'For a discussiorr of energy resources el the hands of local governants,

see David Morris, Self-Reliant Citifs Energy and the Transformation ofUrban America (San Francisco. Sierra Club Books, 1982). c

63 Cohn Norman, "Renewable Power Sparks Financial Interest," Science,June 26, 1981 4

64 Lisa Atchin, "Can Solar Entreprtneurs Survive Government Help',"Successful Business, Spring 1979

Chapter 13. Shapes of a Renewable Society

i For a discussion of social and civil liberties "fall out" from nuclear power,see Akin Weinberg, "Social Institutions and Nuclear Energy," Science,July 7, 1972, Robert Jungk, The New Tyran0 (New York Crossett &Dunlop, 1980), Russell W, Ayres, "Policing Plutonium, The Civil Liber-ties Fallout," Harvard Civil-RightsCivil Liberties Law Review, Vollo, 1975, John Shattuck, "Nuclear Power and thg Constitution," 'The

Nation, November 3, 1979, and Gerald Carv,ey, , Nuclear Power andSocial Planning (Lexington, Mass.' Lexington Books, 1978).

z Cathenne Caufield, "Energy Threat to Valuable Land," New Scientist,March 11, 19,$2, Roderick Nash, "Problems in Paradise," Environment,July/August 1979.

3 St4 Myers, "Debunking the Myth of Solar Sprawl," Soft EnergyNags, June/July 1980, R.H. Twiss et al., "Land Use arid EnvironmentalImpacts of Decentralized Solar Energy Use,", Energy and EnvironmentDivisdn, Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, Berkeley, Calif., 1980

4. "Popular Plantmg Plans Take Root in Maryland,"Journal of Commerce,March 18, 1982, D.R DeWalle and G.M. Heisler, "Landscaping toReduce Year-Round Energy Bills," in U S. Mpartment of AgricultUre,Cutting Energy Cost; (Washington, D.C. U S Government PtintingOffice, 1980). Researchers at the US Department of Agriculthre esti-mate that winter heating bills may be reduced as niuch as 15 percent,while summer cooling energy needs may be cut 50 percent or more

5. An excellent discussion of humanity's ability to work with rather gunagainst the landscape is Rene Dubos, "Humanizing the Earth,"Science,

,

407


February 23, 1972. For an early view of renewable energy's ability toblend.into the landscape, see Lamont C. Hempel, "The Original Blue-print for a Solar America," Environment, March 1982.

6. Aesthetic dimensions of renewable energy development are discussed inNash, "Problems in Paradise," and Leo Marx, The Machine in theCarden. Technology and the Pastoral Idea in America (New York. Ox-ford University Press, 1964).

7. For an overview of world employment trends, see Kathleen Newland,Global Employment and Economic Justice. The Policy Challenge,Worldwatch Paper 28 (Wtshington, D.C.. Worldwatch Institute, April

1979).8. Bruce Hannon, "Energy, Labor, and the Conterver Society," Technol-

ogy Review, March/April 1977, Leonard Rodberg, "Employment Im-pact of the Solar Transition," prepared for the Subcommittee on Energy-of the Joint Economic Committee, U.S. Congress, April 6, 1979.

9. Steven Buchsbaum et al., lobs and Energy. The Employment and Eco-,nomic Imliacts of Nuclear Power, Conservation, and Other Energy Op-tions (New York. Council on Economic Priorities, 1979), B. Mason, G.Ferris and B. Burns, Solar Energy Commercialization and the LaborMarket (Golden, Cob.. Solar Energy Research Institute, 1978); Leon-ard Rodberg, "More Jobs Under the Sun. Solar Power and Employ-ment," Social Policy, May/June 1980; U.S. Congress,. Office of Tech-nology Assessment, Energy from Biological Processes (Washington,D.C.. September 1980), Richard Grossman and Gail Daneker, Jobs andEnergy (Washington, D.C.. Environmentalists for Full Employment,1977), Mary Schifflett and John V. Zuckerman, "Who Will be Workingin Solar Energy Jobs?," Solar Engineering, May 1979, California PublicPolicy Center, lobs from the Sun': Employment Development in theCalifornia Solar Energy Industry (Los Angeles: 1978).

10. The employment impact of methanol development in Canada is dis-cussed in "Major Study Finds Enormous Potential in Canadian Bi-omass," Soft Energy Notes, October 1978.

. To create jobs in rural areas of the Philippines, the International LaborOrganization is promoting the replacement of chain saws with morelabor-intensive traditional tools as described in "Trees and Jobs in Philip-pinesILO," Development Forum, January/February 1982.

12. World trends in urbanization are discussed in Kathleen Newland, CityLimits. Emerging Constraints on Urban Growth, Worldwatch Paper 38,(Washington, D.C.. Worldwatch Institute, August 1980). For 'a discus-sion of the need. for new rural development strategies, see M.P. Todaro

408


and J Stilkind, "City Bias and Rural Neglect. The Dilemma of UrbanDevelopment," The Population Council, New York, unpublished, 1981

13 John S. Steinhart et al., A Low Energy Scenario for the United States.1975-2050 (Madison, Wisc . Institute for Environmental Studies,1977).

14. Paolo Soleri, Arcology The City in the Image of Man (Cambridge,, Man. MIT Press, 1979).

15. New York City Energy Office, Energy Consumption in New York City.Patterns and OpportunitieS (New York. 1981);U:S. House of Repre-sentatives, Subcommittee on the City, Committee on BankiritFkance,and Urban Affairs, ComPact Cities. Energy Saving Strategies for theEighties, Committee print, July 1980; Jon Van Til, "A New Type ofCity for an Energy-Short World," The Futurist, June 1980; U.S. Con-gress, Office of Technology Assessment, Energy Efficiency of Buildingsin Cities (Washington, D.C., March 1982).

16 United Nations (UN), Department of International Economic and So-cial Affairs, Statistical Office, 1979 Yearbook of World Energy Statistics(New York. 1976); U.N Department of Economic and Social Affairs,Statistical Office, World Energy Supplies, 1950-1974 (New York:1976).

17. David Morris, Self-Reliant Cities. Energy and the Transformation ofUrban America (San Francisco: Sierra Club Books, 198z).

18 Wilson Clark and Jake Page, Energy, Vulnerability and War. Alterna-tives for America (New York. W.W. Norton & Co., 1981); Amory B.Lovins and L. Hunter Lovins, Brittle Power (Andover, MM.: BrickHouse, 082).

19. For a discussion of the role of hydropower in relations between Argen-tina and Brazil, see Winthrop P. Carty, "A Farewell to Arms7," Ameri-cas Magazine, August 1981.

zo Ericsson quoted in Ethan B. Kapstein, "The Transition to Solar Energy.An Historical Approach," in Lewis Perelman et al., eds., Energy Transi-tions. Long-Term Perspectives (Boulder, Colo.. Westview Press, 1981).

21. For a discussion of the role of hydropower in settlement patterns, seeJoseph Ermenc, "Small Hydraulic Prime Movers for Rural Areas ofDeveloping Countries. A Look at the Past," in N.L. Brown, ed., Renew-able Energy Resources and Rural Applications in the Developing World(Boulder, Colo : Westview Press, 1978).

22 For details of the project and its impact on Quebec, see "La GrandeComplex," Societe d'energie de la Baie James, Montreal, unpublished,1978, Clifford D. 0, May, "The Power and the Glory in Quebec,"

409

396 Notes (pages 3.10-314)

CEO, December 1979, E. J. Dionne, Jr., "Quebec's Profit May be NewYork's Cain," New York Times, August 15, 1982, and Clayton Jones,"Quebec Turns Water Into Cold," Christian Science Monitor, July 30,1980. .

23. For aluminum's relation to hydropower and its role in industrial soci-eties, see Thomas Canby, "Aluminum, the Magic Metal," NationalGeographic, August 1978, Aluminidn Association, "Energy and theAluminum Industry," Washington, D C., April 1980, Dan Morgan,"Aluminum Industry's Factor in Northwest Power Dispute," Washing-

00*. ton Post, October 29, 1979, Kai Lee and Donna Lee Klemka, ElectricPower and the Future of the Pacific Northwest (Pullman, Wash.. Stateof Washington Water. Resource Center, March 1980).

24. For a discussion of hydropowsr's impact on mineral and aluminumprojects, see Chapter 8, footnok 35, and Harafuini Mochizuki, "Plightof Basic Materials Industries," Journal of Japanese Trade & Industry,VOl. 2, No. 1, 1982.

25. Amal Nag, "Rising Nationalism in Host Countries Threatens U S. Con-trol of Aluminum," Wall Street Journal, January 20, 1981.

26. For a penetrating overview of the equity implications of energy trendsand policies, see Ivan Illich, Energy and Equity (New York Harper &Row, 1974).

27. Robert Dunsrnore, San Luis Valley Solar Energy Association, privatecommunication, July 19, 1982, see also Jeffrey Ruth, "Harvesting theSun in an Agrarian Desert. Colorado's San 'Luis Valley,", Sun Times,March/April 1982.

28. Third World renewable energy leadership is discussed in Jose Goldem-berg, "Brazil. Energy Options and CurEent Outlook," Science, April 14,1978, 2nd Brian Murphy, "Third World Looks,to Brazil, Philippines 2SBiomass Leaders," Renewable Eriegy News, April 1982.

4 1

Note on Energy Units

The reader deserves a brief explanation of the energy unitsused here. This is an area of considerable confusion sincedifferent organizations and countries continue to measure en-ergy in differentunits. The,United Nations uses million metrictons of. coal equivalent, the United States uses quadrillionBritish Thermal Units (quads), and many oil companies usebarrels of oil equivalent.

We have adopted exajoyles because it is a standard metricunit of energy not tied to any particular energy source. Anexajoule is a large amount of energyequivalent to 34 millionmetric tons of, coal, or 163 million barrels of oil. (Fo'r theconvenience of Americans, there happen to be i.o6 exajoules

4

4 11

39§ Note on Energy Units

in a quad.) An exajouje Of energy-is sufficient to heat and coolapproximately 7 million modern single-family residences for ayear, ancithe world uses appfoximately 350 exajoules of energyannually.

Unless specified otherwise, all energy totals used here indi-cate primary energythat is tbe amount of energy containedin a particular fuel before it is burned (perhaps inefficiently) inan engine or furnace. For a purely electricity-generating tech-nology such as a nuclear plant or a wind turbine, the primaryenergy figure in exajoules indicates the amount of fuel thatwould have been burnecrin a typical coal-fired power plant to f-generate that mucb electricity.

El coricity is mmonly measured thioughout the world inkilowat r megawatts (i000 kilowatts). These figures specifyonly the city to produce electricity or the output at anygiven moment. By knowing the proportion of the time that apower plant is operating, one can calculate the amount ofelectricity generated in kilowatf-hours or megawatt-hours. Dif-ferent types- of power plants operate at different average levelsof capacityknown as capacity factors (ranging from 20 to gopeicent). As a result, it is impossible to know automatically howmuch ele4Ticity a megawatt of generating capacity rePreserit.s.The world now has approximately.z million megawatts of gen-erating capacity, and, assuming a capacity factor of 5o percentthat yields approximately g billion megawatt-hours of electric-ity each year.

f.

4.1

Selected Referen9es

fts

Chapter 2. Energy at the Crossroads

1. Bupp, Irvin C., and Derian, Jean-Claude. The Failed Promise of NuclearPower. The Story of Light Water. New York: Basic Books, 1978.

2. Committee on Nuclear and Alternative Energy Systems. Energy in

. Transition: 1985-2010. San Francisco: W.H. Freeman, 1979.3. Council on Environmental Quility. Global Energy Futures and the

Carbon Dioxide Problem. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Prin-ting Office, January 1981.

4.. Daly, Herman E., and Umana, Alvaro F. Energy, Ecpnomics, and ,theEnviionment. Boulder, Westview Press, 1981. .

5, Gibbons, John H., and Chandler, William U. Energy, The Conservation

' Revolution. New York: Plenum Press, 1981.

413

400 Selected eferences4,

6. troward, Ross, and Perky, Michael. Acid Rain. New York. McCraw-Hill, 1982,

7 International Energy Agency. Natural Cas, Prospects to 2000. Paris.1982.,

8. International Energy.Agency. World Energy Outlook Paris. 1982.9. International jnstitute for Apphed Systems Aalysis. Energy in a Finite

Workl. Laxenburg, Austria: 1981.10. Komanoff, Charles. Power Plant Cost Escalation. Nuclear and Coal

Capital Costs, Regulation, and Economics. New York: Komanoff En-ergy Associates, 1981. .-

11. Lovins, Amory B. Soft Energy Paths. Toward a Duralle Peace. Cam-bridge, Masi.: Ballinger, 1977.

12. Nuclear Energy Policy Study Croup. Nuclear Power. Issues and Choices.Cambridge, Mass.: Ballinger, 1977,

13. Resources for the Future. Energy. The Next Twenty Years. Cambridge,Mass.: Ballinger, 1979.

14. Ross, Nfar H and Williams, Robert H. Our Energy. Regaining Con-trol. New York: McCraw-Hill, 1981.

15. Smil, Vaclav. Chinifs Energy. New York. Praeger Publishers, 1976.16. Solar Energy Research Institute. A isew Pr,psperity. Building a Sustaina-

ble Future. Andover, Mass.:'Brick House, 1981.18. Stobaugh, Robert, and Yergin, Daniel, eds. Energy Future. Report of the

Energy Project of the Harvard Business School. New York. RandomHouse, 1979. '

19. U.1.4. Deparfinent of International Economic and Social Affairs. Worldenergy Supplies, 1973-2978. New York: 1979.

20. U.S. Congress, Office of Technology itsessment. Technology and SovietEnergy Availability. Washington, D.C.: 1981.

21. U.S. Congress, Office of Technology Assessment, World Petroleum1980-2000. Washington, D.C.: 1980,,

22. U,S. Department of Energy. 1980 International triergy Annual. Wash-ington,.D.C.: 1981.

23. World Banic. Energy in the Developing Countries. Washington, D:e..1980.

24. World Coal Study. Coal-Bridge to the Future. Camhridge, Mass..Ballinger, i98b.

.

Chapter 3: Building with the Sun

1. Amencan Section of the International Solar Energy Society:Proceedings'kof the National Passive Solar Conference. Philadelphia, Pa.. annual..

,

4 1-4

Selected References 401

2. Anderson, Bruce. The Solar Home Book Heating, Cooling, and Design-ing with the Sun. Andover, MOS:: Brick House, 1976.

3. Butti, Ken, and Perlin, John. A Golden Thread. 2000 kears of So-lar Architecture and Technology. New York. Van Nostrand Reinhold,1980.

4. Farallones Institute. The Integral Urban House, San Francisco, CalifSierra Club Books, 1979.

5. Flavin, Christopher. Energy and Architecture. The Solar and Conservl-tion Potential, Worldwatch Paper 40. Washington, D C.. WorldwatchInstitute, November 1980.

6. Hayes, Cail Boyer. Solar Access Law. Cambridge, MOS.: Ballinger,

1979.7. Mazria, Edward. The Passfre Solartergy Book. Emmaus, Pa...Rodale

PreSS, 1979.8. Shurcliff, William A. Superinsulated and, Double-Envelope Houses.

Cambridge, MOS.: privately published, 1980.9. Stein, Richard C. Architecture and Energy. Carden City, N Y.. Anchor

Press/Doubleday, 1978.10. Thompson, Grant P. Building to Save Energy: Legal and Regulatory

Approaches.' Cambridge, Mass.:. Ballinger, 1980.. U.S. Congress, Office of Technology Assessment. Energy Efficiency of

it. Buildings in Cities. Washington, D.C.: 1982.2. U.S. Congress, Office of Technology Assessment. Residential Energy

Conservation. Washington, D.C.: 1979.

Chapter 4. Solar Collection

1. Austrialian Academy of Science. Liquid Fuels. What Can Australia Do?

Canberra: 1981.2. Charters, William W.S., and Pryor, Trevorl Solar Energy. An Intro-

duction to the Principles and Applidations. 4..st Heidelburg, AustrialiaBeatrice Publishing, 1981.

3.' Heid, Walter C., and Trotter, Warren K. Progress of Solar TechnologyAnd Potential Farm Uses. Washington, D.C.. U S. Dept. of Agriculture,1982.

4. International Solar Energy Society. Sun. Mankind's Future Source of

Energy. New York: Pergamon Press, 1978.5. Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Califbinia Institute of Technology Regional

Applicability and Potential of Sali-Gradient Solar Pondi in the UnitedStates. Pasadena, Calif.: 1981.

6. Metz, William D., and Hammond, Allen L. Solar Energy in America.

.415

402 Selected References

New York American Association for the Advancement of Science,.1978. .1

7. Solar Work Institute. Status Report on California's Solar Collector In-, dustry. Sacramento, Calif.. Office of Appropriate Technology, 1982.

.8. U.S. Copgress, Office of Technology Assessment. Ocean Thermal En-eigy ponversion. Washington, D.C.: 1979.

9. U.S. Department of Energy. A Response Memorandum to the President,Domestic Policy Review of Solar Endgy , Washington, D.C., February1979.

10. Wich, Gerald Liand Schmitt, Walter R. eds. Harvesting Ocean En-erv. Paris: The UNESCO Press, 1981.

1. Williams, Robert H., ed. Toward a Solar Civilization. Cambridge,Mass.: MIT Press, 1978.

Chapter 5. Sunlight to Electricity: The New _Alchemy

Flavin, Christopher. Electricity from Sunlight. Th'Outure of Photovolta-ics, Worldwatch Paper 52. Washington, D.C.: Worldwatch Instittite,December 1982.

2. Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers. Proceedings of theIEEE Photovoltaic Specialists Conference. United States. annuat

3 Maycock, Paul D., and Stirewalt, Edward N. Phobovoltaics. Sunlight toElectricity in One Step. Andover, MaSS.: BrtckHouse, .1981.

4. Monegon, Ltd. The Future of Photovoltaic Solar Electricity. Gaithers-burg, Md.: 1982.

5r National Science Foundation. Electric Power from Orbit. A Critique ofa Satellite Solar Power System. Washington, D.C.: 1981.

6 Pacific Northwest Laboratory. Photovoltaic Product Directory and Buy-ers Guide. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Energy, 1981.

7. Reece, Ray. The Sun Betrayed. A Reporron the Corporate Seizure ofU.S. Solar Energy 'Development Boston: South End Press, 1979.

8. Solar Energy Research Institute, Basic Photovoltaid- Principles andMethods. Golden, Colo.: 1982. '

9. Science Applications, Inc. Characterization and Assessment of PotentialEuropean and Japanese Competition in Photovoltaics. Sprigfie1d, Va..National Technical Information Service, 1979.

io. Stambler, Barrett, and Stambler, Eyndon. Competition in the Photovol-pies Industry. A Question of Balance. Washington, D.C. Center forRenewable Resources, 1982.

x . U.S. Department of Energy. Photovoltaic Energy Systems Program Sum-mary. 'Washington, D.C.: 1982.

4164.

.

+


Chapter 6. Wood Crisis, Wood Renaissance

1. Agarwal, Bina: The Wood Fuel Problem and the Diffusion of RuralInnovations Sussex. University of Sussex, Science Policy Research Unit,October 1980.

A 2 Council on Environmental Quality and U S Department of State TheGlobal soroo Report to the President. Washington, D.0 U S. Govern-ment Printing Office, 1980.'

3. Eckholm, Erik P. Losing Ground. Environmeptal Stress and WorldFood Prospects. New York: W.W. Norton, 1976.

4. Eckholm, Erik P. Planting for the Future. Forestiy for Human Needs,Worldwatch Paper 26 Washington, D.C.. Worldwatch Institute, Feb-

null' 1979. e2

5. Hewett, Charles E., and High, Cohn J Construction and Operation ofSmall, Dispersed, Wood-fired Power Plants. Hanover, N.H.. ThayerSchool of Engineering, Resource Policy Center, September 1978

6. Know land, B , and Ulinski, C. Traditional Fuels. Present Data, PastExperience and Possible Strategies. Washington, D.C.. Agency for In-ternational Development, 1979.

, 7. Lqx; Peter, and Overend, Ralph. Tree Power. An Assessment of theEnergy Potential of Forest Biomass in Canada. Ottawa. Ministry ofEnergy, Mines and Resources, 1978

8. National Academy of Sciences. Firewood Crops. Shrub and Tree Speciesfor Energy Production. Washington, D.C.. National Academy Press,1980 .

9. National Academy pf Sciences Leucaena Promising Forage and TreeCrops for the Tropics. Washington, D.C.. National Alademy Press,

1977ro. Smith, Nigel. Wood. An Ancient Fuel With a New Future Worldwatch

Paper 42. Washington, D.C.. Worldwatch Institute, January 1981.i 1. Tillman, David A. Wood as an Energy Resource. New York. Academic

Press, 1978.12, United Nations Conference on New 2nd Renewable Sources of Energy

"Report of thc Technical Panel on Fuelwood and Charcoal " Nairobi,Kenya: 1981.

13. World Bank. Forestry Sector Policy Paper. Washington, D.C.. 1978..

Chapter 7. Growing Fuels: Energy from Crops and Waste

1. Barnett, Andrew, Pyle, Leo, and Subramanian, S.K Biogas Technology. _ in the Third WOrld. A Multidisciplinary Review Ottawa. International

Development Research Centre, 1978.

.,

417

41

.,-

..

\

404 Selected Reerences

2 Bernton, Hal, Kovarik, William, and Sklar, Scott. The Forbidden Fuel,Power Alcohol in the Twentieth Centwy. New York. Boyd Grifin, 1982:

3. Brown, Lester R. Food or FueL New Competition for the World'i,Crop-land, Worldwatch Paper 35. Washington, D.C.. Workhyatch Institute,March 1980.

4. Hall, D.O., Barnard, G.W, , and-Moss, P.A. Biomass for Energy in theDeveloping Countries. Oxford: Pergamon Press, 1982.

5. Pimentel, David, and Pimentel, Marcia. Food, Energy and ;Society. NewYork: John Wiley & Sons, 1979.

6. Smith, Russel I. Tree Crops-4 Permanent Agriculture. New. York:Harper & Row, 1978.U S. Congress, Office of Technology-Assessment. Gasohol, A TechnicillMemorandum. Washington, D.C.: September 1979.1

8. U.S. Congress, Office of Technology Assessment. Energy from Biologi-cal Processes. Washington, DC.: 1980.

9. U.S. congress, Office of Technology Assessment Materials and Energyfrom Municipal Waste. Washington,, D.C.: 1979.

ro. U.S. National Alcohol Fuels Commission. Fuel Alcohol. An BneriyAlternative for the 1980's. Washington, D.C.: 1981.

ii Vogler, John Work from Waste. Recycling Wastes-to Create Employ-) ment London. Intermediate Technology Publications and Oxfam,

11,

Chapter 8. Rivers of Energy

1. Ackermann, William, et al., eds. Man-Made Lakes:,Their Problems andEnvironmental Eftects. Washington, D.C.: American GeophysicalUnion,..1973. ,

2. Cavanatigh, Ralph, et al. Choosing an Electrical Energy Future for thePacifie4NOrthwest. Ah AlternativeScenario. San Francisco. Natural Re-sources Defense Council, August 1980.

3. Centralintelligenti Agency,Electric Power for China's Modernization.The Hydreelectric Option. Washington, D.C.:May 1980.

4- Committee On Environmental Effects of the U.S. Committee on LargeDams. tnvironmental Effects or Large Dams. New York, AmericanSociety of Civil Engineers, 1978."

5. Deudney, Daniel. Rivers of Energy: The Hydropewer Potential, World-Pala Paper 44. Washington, D.C.: Worldwatch Institute, June 1981.

6. Kirkpatrick, J.B. Hydro-Electiic Development and Wilderness in Tas-mania. Hobart, Tasmania, Departm'eg of the Environment, 1979.

.7. Klotz, Louis H , ed. Energy Sources: e Promiles and Problems. Dur-

4/8


ham, N.H.. Center for Industrial and Institutional Development, Univof New Hampshire, 1980. '

8. McPhee, John. Encounters with the Archdruid. New York Doubleday,

1975.9. Smith, Nigel J.H. Man, Fishes and the Amazon. New York Columbia

Elniv. Press, r g81. f-.1

ro. Smith, Norman A.F. Man and Water. A History of Hydro-Technology,

London: Peter Davies, 1975.11 Waterbury, John. Hydropolitics of the Nile- Valley. Syracusee N Y

Syracuse Univ. Press, 1980.

Chapter 9. Wind Power: A rurnitig Point

1. ikrgeson, Lloyd. Wind Propulsion for Ships of the American MerchantMarine. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Maritime Agency, 1981.

2. Bollmeier, W.S., et al. Small Wind Systems Technology Assessment:State of the Art and Near Term Coals. Springfield, Va.. National Techni-cal Information Service, 1980.

3. Dubey, Michael, and Coty, Ugo. Impact of Large Wind Energy Systemsin California. Sacramento, Calif.. California Energy Commission, 1981

4. Flavin, Christopher. Wind Power. A Turning Point, Worldviatch Paper45. Washilgton, D.C.: Worldwatch Institute, July 1981. ,

5 Hunt, DaNel V. Windpower. A Handbook on Wind Energy Conversion

Systems. New York: Van Nostrand Reinhold, 1981.6. Lockheed California Company Wind Energy Mission Analysis Bur-

bank, Cglif.: October 1976..7. Naar, Jon. The New 'Mnd Power. New, York: Penguin Books, 1981.8. NASA Lewis Research Center. Wind Energy 'Developments in tie

Twentieth Century. Cleveland, Ohio, National Aeronautics and SpaceAdministration, 1979.

9. Pacific Northwest Laboratory. "World-Wide Wind Energy Resource -Distribution Estimatei." A map prepared for the World MeteorologicalOrganization, 1981.

so. Park, Jack. The Wind Power Boo*. Palo Alto, Calif.: Cheshire Books,

1981,United Nations Conference on New and Renewable Sources of Energy"Report of t'he Technical Panel on Wind Energy " Nairobi, Kenya:1981.

419


Chapter to. Geothermal Energy: The Powering Inferno1 Di Pippo, Ronald. Geothermal Energy as a Source of Electricity. Wash-

ington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Energy, 198o:z Eaton, William W. Geothermal Energy. Washington, D.C.. U.S. En-

ergy Research and Development Administration, 1775.3 Kruger, Paul, and Otte, Card, eds. Geothermal Energy. Stanford, Calif..

Stanford Univ. Press, 1973.4 Ministere de l'Industrie du Comiec, et de l'Artisanat. La Geothennie

en France.. Paris: 1978.5 Muffler, L.J.P Assessment of Geo ermal flesources of the United States

1978. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Geological Survey, 1979.6 Geothermal Resources Council Annual Meeting. Proceedings. United

States: annual.7 United Nations Conference on New and Renewable Sources of Energy.

"Re Port of the Technical Panel on Geothermal Energy." Nairobi,Kenya: 1981.

8 U S Congress, General Accounting Office. Geothermal Energy. Obsta-cles and. Uncertainties Impede Its Widespread Use, Washington, D.C..January 18, 1980.

Chapter 11. Working Together: Renewable Energy'sPotential

1 Ashworth, John H., and Neuendorffer, Jean W. Matching RenewableEnergy Systems to Village-Level Energy Needs. Golden, Colo.: U.S:Solar Energy Research Institute, 1980.

z Bocce lli, Elizabeth, and Gordon, Karen. Electric 'Utility Solar EnergyActivities: 1981 Survey. Palo Alto, Calif.. Electric Power Research Insti-tute, 1982.

3. Brown, Norman L., ed. Renewable Energy Resources and Rural Applica-tions in the Developing World. Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press, 1978.

4. Dunkerley, Joy, et 21. Energy Strategies for Developing Nations. Balti-more, Md.: Johns Hopkins Univ. Press, 1981.

4 Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations: Energy forWorld Agriculture. Rome:United Nations; 1979.

5. Hirst, Eric, et 21. Energy Use from 1973 to 1980: The Role of Improved' Energy Efficiency. Oak Ridge, Tenn.. Oak Ridge National Laboratory,December 1981.

6. Hoffman, Peter. The Forever Fuel: The Story of Hydrogen. Boulder,Colo.; Westview Press, 1981.

420


7. Johansson, homas B., and Steen, Peter. Solar Swetitri. An Oritline toa Renewable Energy system. Stockholm Secretariat for Future Studies,

1979.7. National Research Council. Energy for Rural Development. Washing-

ton, D.C.: National Academy Press, 1981.9. North-South Roundtable. Energy for Development.' An International

Challenge. New York: Praeger Publishers, 1981.a. Philippines Ministry of Energy. Ten-Year Energy Program, 1980-1989.

Manila: 1980.1. Solar Energy Research Institute. A New Prosperity Building a Renew-

able Energy Future. Andover, Mass::,Brick House, 196."12. United Nations Conference on New and Renewable Sources of Energy,

"Programme of Action." Nairobi, Kenya: August 21, 1981.13. World Bank. Renewable Energy Resources in the Developing Countries

Washington, D.C.: 1480.

Chapter 12. Institutions for the Transition

i. Alm, Alvin L., and Dreyfus, Daniel A. Utilitieslin Crisis. A Problem ofCovernance New York, Aspen Institute for Humanistic. Studies, 1982

2. Center for Renewable Resources. Shining Examples. Model ProjectsUsing Renewable Resources. Washington, D.C.: 1980.

3. Center for Renewable Resources. The Solar Agenda. Progress and Pros-pects. Washington, D.C.: 102..

4. Committee for Economic DevelOpment and the Conservation Founda-tion. Energy Prices and Public Policy. Washington: D.C.. 1982.

5. Cone, B.W., et al. An Analysis of Federal Incentives Used to StimulateEnergy Production. Washington, D C.. U.S. Department of Energy,1980.

6. Davis, David Howard. Energy Politics, and ed New York. St Martin's6 NM, 1978.

7. Doyle, Jack. Line Across the Land, Rural Electric Cooperatives TheChanging Politics of Energy in Rural America Washington, D CRural Land and Energy Project, Environmental Policy Institute, 1979

8. Hempel, Lamont C. The Politics of Sunshine. Doctoral dissertation ofthe Public Policy Program, Claremont Graduate School. Claremont,Calif.: 1982.

9. Henderson, Hazel, The Politics of The Solar Age. Alternatives to Eco-nomics. Garden ,City, N.Y.. Anchor Press/Doubleday, 1981.

10. Hoffman, Thomas, and Johnson, Brian. The World EnergyTriangle AStrategy for Cooperation. Cambridge, Mass.: Ballinger, 1981.

421

408 Selected Referatces

1. International Energy Agency Energy Research, Development and Dem-onstration in the lEA Countries. Paris: Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development/International Energy Agency, 1982.

12. International Energy Agency. Energy Policies and Programs of lEACountries, 1981 Review. Paris. Organization for Economic Co-opera-tion and Development/International Energy Agency, 1982.

13. Messing, M., et al. Centralized Power: The Politics of Scale in ElectricityGeneration. Cambridge, MaSs.: Oelgeschlager, Funn & Hain, 1979.,

14. Pomerantz, D., et al. Franklin Co ty Energy Study: A RenewableEnerv Scenario for the Future. Green Mass.: Franklin CountyEnergy Project, 1979.

15. Rodberg, Leonard, and Schachter, Meg. State Co ation and Solar'Energy Tax Programs: Incentives or Windfalls? Washin: . , D.C.: TheCouncil of State Planning Agencies, 1980.

16. Strong, Mauriee, and Haq, Mahbub ul. The Castel Gandolfo R .rt onRenewable Energy. Policies and Options, presented to the North `,uthRoundtable Seminar at the United Nations Conference on New a dRenewable Sources of Energy. Nairobi, Kenya: 1981.

17. Talbot, David, and Morgan, Richard E. POIVeT 6 Light Political Strate-gies for the Solar Transition. New York: The Pilgrim Press, 1981.

18. Taylor, Robert P. Rural Energy Development in China. Washington,D.C.: Resources for the Future, 1982.

19. World Bank. Mobilizing Renewable Energy Technology in DevelopingCountries. Strengthening Local Capabilities and Research. Washington,D.C.: July 1981.

20. Yergin, Daniel, and Hillenbrand, Martin, eds. Global Insecurity: A Strat-egy for Energy and Economic Renewal. Boston: Houghton Mifflin,19132.

4Phapter 13. apes o Renewable Society

i...

Buchsbaum, Steven al. Jobs and Enerj 7ie Employment and Eco-nomic Impacts of NIekaw., Conservation dDther Energy Op-tions. New York: Council o Economic Priorities, 1

2. Clark, Wilson, and Page, Jake. gy, Vulnerability and r: Alterna-

tives for America. New York: W.W. Norton, 1981.3. Clark, Wilson. Energy for Survival. Garden City,- N.Y.: Anchor ess-

/Doubleday, 1974.4. Coates, Gary J., ed. Resettling America. Energy, Ecology and Commu-

nity. Andover, Mass.: Brick House, 1981.

422

I.Selected References 409

5. Deese, David A., 2nd Nye, Josepth S., eds. Energy and Security. Ca In:bridge, Mass.: Ballinger, 19Skt.

6. Grossman, Richard, and Daneker, Gail. lobs and Energy. Washington,D.C.: Environmentalists for Full Employment, 197.

7. Hempel, Lamont C. "The Original Blueprint for a Solar America."Environment, March 1982.

8. Illich, Ivan. Energy and Equity. New York: Harper & Row, 1974.9. Jungk, Robert. The New Tyranny. New York: Crossett & Dunlap, 1980.

10. Lovins, Amory B., and Lovins, L Hunter. Brittle Power. Energy Strategyfor National Security. Andover, M255.: Brick House, 1982.

1. Marx, Leo. The Machine in the Garden. Technology and the PastoralIdea -in-America. New York: Oxford Univ, Press, 196+

12. Morris, David. Self-Reliant Cities. Energy and the .Transformation ofUrban America. New York: W.W. Norton, 1982.

13. Newland, Kathleen. City Limits: Emerging Constraints on UrbanGrowth, Worldwatch Paper 38. Washington, D.C.:Vorldwatch Insti-tute, August 2980.

14. New York City Energy Office, Energy Consumption in New York City.Patterns and Opportunities. New York: 2981.

15. Perelman, Lewis, et al., eds. Energy Transition& Long-Term Perspec-tives. BoUlder, Colo.: Westview Press, 1981.

16. Ridgeway, James. Energy-Efficient Community Planning. Emmaus, Pa..The JG Press, 1979.

17. Soleri, Paolo. Arcology. The City in the Image of Man. Cambridge,Mass.: MIT PreSS, 1979.

18. Steinhart, John S., et al. A Low Energy Scenario for the United States:1975-2050. Madison, Wis.. Institute for Environmental Studies, 2977.

19. Van Til, Jon. Living with Energy Shortfall. A Future for American Townsand Cities. Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press, 1982.

Periodicals

Alternative Sources of Energy, bimonthly107 S. Central Ave., Milaca, MN 56353

Appropriate Technology, quarterlyIT Publications Ltd., 9 King St., London WC2E 8HN;

Biofuels Report, weeklyPasha Publications, 1828 L St., N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036

California Energy Commiision News 6. Comment, monthlyCalifornia Energy Commission, 1516 Ninth St., Sacramento, CA 95814

4 23


Critical Mass Energy Journal, monthlyCritical Mass,Energy Project, 215 Pennsylvania Ave., S.E., Washing-ton, D.C. 20003

Earth Shelter Digest 6 Energy Report, bimonthly1701 E. Cope, St. Paul, MN 55109

Energy Conservation Digest, biweeklyDulles Interoational, P.O. Box 17346, Washington, D.C. 20041

European Crftergy.Report, biweeklyFinandiarrimes Business Information Ltd., Bracken House, co CannonSt., London Ec4p 4BY, U.K.

The Geyser: International Geothermal Energy Newsletter, monthlyP.O. Box 1738, Santa Monica, GA 90406

In Review: SERI Research Update, bimonthlySolar Energy Research Institute, 1617 Cole Blvd., Golden, CO 80401

Latin American Energy Report biweeklyBusiness Publishers, Inc., 951 Pershing Dr., Silver Spring, MD 20910

Photovoltaic Insider's Report monthly1011 W. Colorado Blvd., Dallas, TX 75208

Photovoltaics, bimonthlyFore Publishers, Inc., P.O. Box 3269, Scottsdale, AZ 85257

Renewable Energy News, monthlyBoic 4869 Stn. E., Ottawa, Canada, IqS 5J1

Soft Energy Notes, bimonthlyFriends of the Earth Foundation, 124 Spear St., San Francis(;;, CA94105

Solaire bimonthly57, rue Escudier, 92100 Boulogne, France

Solar Age, monthly. SolarVision, Inc., Harrisville, NH 03450

Solar Energy Intelligence Report, weeklyBusiness Publishers, Inc., 951 Pershing Dr., Silver Spring, MD 20910

Solar Engineering 6 Contracting, monthlyBusiness News Publishing Co., P.O. Box 3600, 755 W. Big Beaver Rd.,Troy, MI 48099

Solar Law Reporter, bimonthlySolar Energy Research Institute, 1617 Cole Blvd., Golden, CO 80401

ISolar Magazine, bimonthlyP.O. Box A, Del Mar, CA 9294

Sun Times, bimonthly, Solar Lobby, cow Connecticut Ave., N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036

4 2 4


Sunworld, bimonthlyInternational Solar Energy Society, P.O. Box 26, Highett, Victoria3190, Australia

Unasylva: International Journal of Forestry, quarterlyUnited Nations Food 2nd Agriculture Organization, Via delle Terme ,

di Caracalla, ooloo Rome, ItalyVITA News, quarterly

Vlunteers. in Technical Assistance, 1815 North Lynn St., Arlington,VA 22209

Wind Energy Report International Newsletter, monthly189 Sunrise Highway, Rockville Centre, NY 11570

Wind Power Digest, quarterly398 E. Tiffin St., Bascom, Ohio 448o9

Wood 'n Energy: Professional Solid Fuel Journal, monthly13 Depot St., P.O. Box ioo8, Concord, NH 03301

World Solar Markets, m'OnthlyFinancial Times Business Information Ltd., Bracken House, io CannonSt,, London EC4P 4BY U.K.

4250

ndex

Academy of Sciences, Soviet, 25acid hydrolysis, 140acid rain, 21-22Adanan, Mori* 98Agency'forAnternational

Development, U.S., 183agricultural krastes, as energy

source, 5, 11, 13, io8, 137,.148-54, 243-44, 245

agriculture, 181, 185, 241., 246,

247alcohol fuels and, 137-44, 159,

169-61, 251

combined ixitetitiat.ofrenewables in, 243-45

deforestation and,'199, 111-12,.1 121"

forestry integrated with, 127728,130, 147, 160, 267 ,

productivity in, 12:13,193search for energy crops and,

144-48, 243, 266-67solar technology applied to,

4-66, 68, 85, 245,244Agriculture Department, U.S.,

71-72, 132

,1 426

I,

414 Index

ait cOnditiOning, 31, 38, 39, 238solar, 45, 69, 73-74, 240

airline industry, 32air-to-air heat exchangers, 45Alaska, 279, 282alcohol 'fuels, see ethanol;

methanolaluminum industry, 178, 179, 189,

241, 311American Institute of Architects,

48American Solar King, 84&mail, solar buildings of, 37animal wastes, as ener ree,

108, 137, 14-Antipater, 165aquacu1ture144, 147-4:ARO Solar, 103Argentina, 58, 167,.308, 309

wind powei in, 196, 213Arizona, solar-powered irrigation

in, 68Arizon, University of, 146,Ashworth, John, 246Aswan High Darn068, 171, 173,

176

Atomic Energy Commission, U.S.,25

Australia, 18, 124, 125, 135, 310hydropower in, 174solar energy in, 45, 58, 64, 67,

75, 79, 82, 86, 91wind power in, 193-94, 196-97

Austria, 45, 113automobiles, 249-51, 276, 277

efficiency of, 249electric, 25o ,

ethanol used in, 138, 140, 251oil consumption and, io, 249wood hiel for, 117, 118, 119-20,

)35

427

Bakumb, Douglas, 47Bangladesh, 13, 149, 170Birstow power tower, 72Becquerel, Edmund, 89Bell'Laboratories, 89, 90Bendix Company, 205Bergeson, Lloyd, zooMatt, V. V., 149-50

technology, 5, 130, 134,149-53, 158, 459-60, 249, 273

advantages of, 149-50, 246-47disadvantages of, 150-51, 247scicial constraints and, 150, 152

biomass technology, 10, 13, 107-63agricultural wastes and, 5, 11,

13, 108, 137, 148-54,243-44, 245

as labor-intensive, 302-3number of people relying on,

io8R&D for, 266similarities of all SOUrCeS Of,

136-37 ,

urban vstes and, 137, 154-59,161

see also ethanol; methanol;wood fuel

Bonneville Power Authority, 177,179

Brace Research Institute, 66Brazil, 15, 112, 126, 152, 213,

241,- 242, 266, 268, 285, 311ale0hOl fuels-in, 3, 5, 128, 119,

135, 137, 140-41, 143-45,160, 290

financing energy transition in,-z8o, z8i

hydropower in,.168-69, 171,174, 175, 176, 189, 308, 309

solar energy in, 62, 64, 93, 100breeder reactors, 2, 30

Wei 415

Brookhaven National Laboratories,

69buildings, 237.-40

energy conservation in, 35-38;

-40-41, 47, 55-56, 23.8energy-inefficient, 38-39, 40solar energy and, see solar

. . design, passive

Bulleit, Douglas, 5oBupp, Irvin, 26Burke, J. Richard, 94burning mirrors, 57, 58Business Week, 42, 89Butti, Ken, 37

cadmium sulfide, solar cells made

fron!, 94, 95 2

California, 125, 158, 187, 240,253, 282, 287

building standards in, 294Energy Commission in, 206geothermal energy in, 223, 227,

233

lif ine rates in, 284Utilities Commission in,

83

solar power in, 3, 54, 58, 62, 64,

68, 72, 73 f 75, 76, 80, 83,103, 271, 302

wind power in, j, 204; 296, 207,208, 210, 211, 212-13, 215,216

California, University of, 299

Canada, 5, 39, 66, 93, 115, 140,143, 234

energy-pride structure in, 27ehydropower in, 166-67, 169,

170, 174, 176, 188, 310nuclear energy in, 24, 28, 29passive solar design in, 44,45,

. 48, 52

reforestation in, 122, 131wind power in, 203, 205, 210INOOd fuel in, 112, 116, 120,

123,,135Canadian Horne Insulation

Progpm (CHIP), 282-83carbon dioxide, 133, 137

coal burning and, 20, 22-23Carta, Jimmy, 142, 295cassava, as energy crop, 138,

144-45, 251catalytic combusters, 114-15, 274cellulose-to-ethanol technologies,

139-4oCenter for Development Policy

Studies, 178Central Electricity Generating

Board, British, 206chari:oal, 40, io8, 109, L11, 112,

rit 133, 158, 242, 303Charlanka company, 112cheese industry, waste-to-energy

, potential of, 153 C .

chemical industry, 241, 243,.268Chemurgy Movement, 138Chicago, solar house in, 42

. Chile, 234solar stills in, 66-67

China, ancient:solar energy in, 37'457wind power in, 193c

China, People's Republic of, 5,15, 131, 214, 268, 281, 285,296

.biogas units in, 15o,451-%.2,

159, 249, 273coal in, 19, 20-21comprehensive apProach to rural

energy problems in, 248-49energy research in, 265geothermal eriergy in, 226, 234

428

416

Chiiia (continued),hydropower in, 167, 169, 172,

173, 176, 180-82, 190, 249,271, 274

reforestation in, 128, 129

solalenergy in, 37, 52, 65,67418, 86, 93, too

Index

climate-se design, see solar,, passive

'Club du Sahel, 130-31'ccal, 2, 4, to, 18-24, 27, 58, 19,

249-50, 276, "307appeal of, 18-19cost of, 19-20, 21, 23, ej177disadv,antages of, 6, 909-23,

159electrieity generated from, 24,

27;97, 252 -future of, 257-5ff, 259methanol made from, 118, 251mining of, 20-21social effects of reliance on,

297-98supply. of, 7, 18-19 .wood fuel compared to, 117,

118

cocadiesel, 145-46Coffin, Ned, 201-2Colombia, 123, 198Colombo Declarati0p of the

; Economic 2nd Social Councilfor Asia and the Pacific, 1:52

Colorado, 114solar ener5çin, 51, 53, 82, 313

commercial enfrom coal, 10, 1 , .23

from natural gas, 17From oil, io, 17in selected industrial countries

(1978), 39by 501.11Ve (1050-1080), 11

429

Commissariat a l'Energie Solaire(COMES), 265

community forestry, 127-30, 236,

246, 249concentrating collectori, 69, 71-72Congress, 1.14-.S., 54, 1o4-5, 142conservation, see energy

conservation .

Consumer Product SafetyCommission, U.S., 273

cook, JeffreY, 45cooling, 39, 40, 5o, 237, 246, 247

passive solar design and,.36,

37-38, 43, 45-46see also air conditioning

copper, in solar technology, 58,64

corn, ethanol produced from, 137',.139, 142-43, 144, 251

Corning Class Works, 70Costa RIM, 13, 188, 234Council pn Economic Priorities,

302crop drying, 65-66, 244, 246CZOChralski process, 91

dams, 165, 166, 168-87, 100, 271,296

ecological changes wrought by,171-75 '

making better use of, 184-87Darrieus wind turbines, 205deaths, from coal mining, 20-21deforestation, 13=14, 107, 109-10,

121-26, 127, 131, 133, 172Denmark, 32, 45,

wind power in,211-12, 214,

52, 155,194, 201,216, 254

287

205,

Detroit Edison, 285developing countries, 6, 249, 255,

276-81 /

Index 417

biogas digesters in, 134, 149-52,158, 150-80, 248-47, 249,273

coal use in, 2021combined tial of

renewables in, 245-49cooling needs of, 45748, 246,

247 ._dependence on,wood in,

108-1,2P 24346mic stagnation'in, 13-14

en...A conservation in, 2-3,, 31,

33-34energy-price structure in,

276-77, 285fuelwood shortage jn, 108-10,

132geothermat energy in, 221, 223,

226, 230,.'131, 233, 234-35hydropower in, 165, 167-69,

179-71, 172-84, 188, 189,190, 271

inefficient building in, 40modernizing wood use in,

110-11, 133-35nuclear power in, 26, 28-29oil use in, 1012,13,14-15, 34,

276-77, 278-79phokovoltaics market,in, 99-100,

1012,104R&D in, 268-69 .reforestation in, 127-31solar energy in, 3, 36, 37, 46,

64-68, 88, 99-100, 1012,103,104,271

urban.waste problem in, 157158, 161

wind power in, 197-200, 207,211,213'44

see also ipetific countriesDiachok, Darian.48

.

diesel generators, disadvantages of.247

direct grant programs, 281,.282-83

Domestic Policy Review on SolarEnergy, U.S., 86

double-envelope houses, 44Dow Chemital Company, 116.Dim Corning Corporation, 114dung, io8, 137, 150.Dyson, Freeman, 133

earth-sheltered buildings, 44Ect.holm, Erik, 246economic constraints:

on coal use, 19-20, 23on hydropower, 165, 167on nuclear power, 26-27, 28,

29, 3oon photovoltaics, 88, 89, 904.

91-92on solar collection, 5$, 6o-61,

68, 70, 80-81on use of stoves, 111

economic effects of renewable

energy, 5, 7,'140-41, 146,149-51, 171, i8o, 312-15

'econopric..growth, 19energy growth compared to, 31,

32-33oil use and, 11-13

Egypt, 311hydropower in, 168,169, 171,

173, 176, 177electricity, 40, 41, 140, 247-48

f.9r air conditioning, 73, 74..1l-generated, 24, 27, 97, 252combined potential of

renewables and, 252-55conservation of,.31, 33, 252-53,

255

430

_

418 Izadex

electricity (continued)cost of, 58-59, 61, 62,-88, 00,

96-97, 177-79, 185, 186,194, 200, 202, 206-7,210...11, 252, 283-85

gas-generated, 10, 252from geothermal energy, 218-19,

223-25, 226.-27, 232-'33,234-35, 253

hydro-, see hydropowernuclear-generated, 24, 27, 29,

33, 97, 252oil-generated, 10, 24, 59, 252SOlarlenerated, 3, 33, 75,

.87-106, 239, 24g, 253,265-66; see also photovoltaics

from urban waster, 15% 156,157, 159

wind-generated, 191-92, 194,200-207, 209-11, 214:16,239, 244, 247, 253, 254

wood 2S source of, 107, 115,116, 117-18

wood's competiveness with, 113electric utility industry, 252755

decentralization of, 288-89demand management in, 284-85effects of solar energy use on, ,

81-84energy`transition in, 283-89financial assistance and,.285-862S monopoly, 286-87winil power for, 203-7, 209-11

electric vehicles, 250El Silvador, geothermal energy in,

1234employment, 5, 12-13, 165, 171,

199, 290-91 ,

,biomass technology and, 140,146, 149-50, 302-3

in renewable sod*, 301-3

4 31

kzid-tise approach to energy, 2, 255nergy conservation, 2-3, 4, 14,

31-34, 241, 259in building, 35-38, 40-41, 47.

55-56, 238changes in geographical energy

balance due to, 33-34cost Of, 2, 31 . .electricit5, and, 31, 33, 252-53,

255 .

energy economics revolutionized.by, 32.13

energy policy and, 260, 261firewood and, 110-12oil-price increases and, 2,.9

Energy Department, U.S., 55, 73,92, 96, 105, 139, 153, 155,204, 228, 267

energy efficiency, see energy 'conservation

energy forecasts, errors in, 1.1-2, 8,14, 19

Energy in a Fihite World, 1-2energy policy, 260-96

crisis approach to, 263-64empowering people and,.289-96myopic, 260-61R&D priorities and, 261-69

energy sector, in renewable society, ;300-301

energy transition: ,

financing of, 275-83importave of, 7, 14, 16institutions for, 260-96 ,role of methanol in, 251time requirements of, 4, 7

Enertech Corporation, 201-2engine design, methanol'use And,

119-20environmental problems

ii'coal use and, 19, 2 23

Index 419

contml systems and, 274hydropower and, 165, 166, 167,

171-75, 190, 271solar technology and, 78, 104waste-to-energy technology and,

158

see also pollutionEnvironmental Protection Agency,

U.S., 2.27equality, renewable energy and,

277-78, 312-.7-16

Ericsson, John, 309ethanol, 118, 137-45, 153, 16o,

251, 267cost of, 138, 139."net energy balance" debate

MCI, 139Ethiopia, io8, 127, 130, 198 4

Eucalyptus, in reforestation, 124-25evacuated tube collectors, 69, 70Exxon, 84, 98

fertilizers, 149-50, 161-62, 172,

243fisheries, impaot of large dams on,

. .172773

flat-plate collectors, 59-60, 68:71Florida, solar-energy in, 58, 271food,prices, ethanol production

'and, 140-41, 142, 143food. processing, 72-73, 153Ford, Henry, ;38, 2-02 *.

Ford Motor Crimpairy, s19-26,121 £'

'forest cooperatives, 126, 131732Vorest Industry Renewable Energy

(FIRE), 116, 283forest products industry: 4)16 .

forests, 121.;32community, 127-30, 236, 246,

249

increasing productivity of,12226, 133

monocultural, 125-26, 127residues in, 122-23see also deforestation;

reforestationForest Service, U.S., 123-24Fourneyron, Benoit, 165-66Fraenkel, Peter, 194France, 24, 111, 119

electric utilities in, 287, 288geOthermal energy in, 222, 231,

233-34hydropower and, 165, 183, 185,

18E1_,%,

nuclear energy in, 24, 25, 27, 29photovoltaics exported by,

99-100, 101R&D in, 262, 265solar energy in, 5o, 52, 64, 71,

78, 79, 80, 93, 97waste-to-energy technology in,

155

Freeman,..S. David, 183Fresnel lens, 69, 71=72, 95Miture Studies Program (Univessity- of Massachus ts), 293

Gandhi, Mohandas K .135, 152gasohol, 137, 1414gisiiline,--iltemifives. to, 249-51;

see a/so,ethanol; methanol;sylithetic fuels

General Motinli, 84gene si)licing,'energy impductivity

of ,plants and; 148keopressured reservoifs,

128729.geothermal energy, 3, 4; 5,,

'-218-35; 246; 242:climes of, i 19-20

..432

420 : , Index

geothermal energy (continued);cost of, 221, 225.-26, 231-32drilling for, 225-26, 24732electrieity generated from,

218-19, 223.-15, 226-27,232-33, 234-35, 253

future of, 233-35, 257'institutional accommodation of,

230-33pollution from, 225, 227-28risk sharing in development of,

231-32SOUrCe of, 218, 219technical challenges and, 225-28worldwide capacity for (in 1981

and 2000), 224Germany, Federal Republic of, 23,

28, 31, 40, 82, 294electricity prices in, 284-85solar energy in, 50, 52, 82,

. 93-94, 97, 99-1C0

.urban wastes in, 154, 155wind power in, 197, 205

Germany, NaZi, 118, 307Ghana, hydropower in, 169, 173,

177, 178Golden Thread, A (Butti and

Perlin), 37gopherweed, as feedstock,f 146government:

breakdown of R&D expend-4'itures of (1979 and 1981),266

corporate emphasis of, 99ethanol supported by, 137, 140,

141-42geothermal research and,

231-32goal setting by, 291-92local, rechanneling resources to,

.291', 292-94

433.

nuclear power suppprled by,24

Passive solar design and, 35,*

47-48, 52, 54.

photovoltaics research by, 9o,\92-93

R&D expenditures of (198o),263

solar R&D expenditures of78-8o -

waste-to-energy technology and,156-57

wind power research and, 192,197, 198, 211-13

WOOd fuel and, 129, 134Grand Coulee Dam, 186grasses, as liquid fuel feedstocks,

146

Great Britain, 40, 93, 97,171,229, 279, 288

nuclear eneigy in, 24, 28wind pc; in, 193, 202, ;05,

, 206, 2r5- 6Greece, 64, 198Greeks,.,ancient .

hydropower and, 165solar energy and, 36-37, 57

greenhouse effect, 41, 1933greenhouses, 43-44, 51,, 221 ,Gregor, Harry, 139Guatemala, 66, 110, 221

Hamilton Standard Corporation,205

Hampshire College, 75-76Hanover Insurance Company, 54Hartley, Fred, 226Harvard Business School, 80-81Hawaii, 153, 2p6, 254

SOlar technology in, 73, 77Hay, Harold, 44

Index 421

health problems, 150, 173, 182coal USe and, 19, 20-21photovoltaics 2nd, 104

heating, 50, 203central, 38, 39, 49district, 240, 296geothermal, 218-19, 222, 227,

233-34solar, 3, 35-37, 41-45, 57, .

58-64, 67-68, 70-71, 76, 8o,81, 8-246, 236, 200, 270-71,295

heat pumps, 222-23herbicides, 123 .

Hoffman, Thomas, 280-81Home Improvement Council, 53 ..honeylocust, in agro-forestry, 147hot dry rock, 220, 228, 229Hungary, geothermal,energy in,

221, 222hydrogen, as transportation fuel,

250

hydropowq, 3, 4, a64-9o, 252,. 253, 255, 270, 307

cost of, 166, 176, 177-79, 186development, by region (1980),

189

future of, 188-9o, ,256-57historical use of, 165-66political disputes as obstacle to,

165, 170-71potential and use, by region

(1980), 167-68in realignment of power and

wealth, 309-12small-scale, for rural

development, 179-84, 249untapped potential of, ;65;

167-68, 189-90wind power combined with, 210see also dams

hydrOthermal reservoirs, 219-20,228

IBM,, 50Iceland, geothermal energy in, 5,

221, 222, 223, 226, 227, 229,231732, 133, 235

Illich, Ivan, 269India, 13, 26, 241, 268, 285

biogas digesters in, 134, 149-50,_151, 152, 158, 273

coal production in, 18, 21hydropower in, 167, 170, 171,

_172

price controls in, 271reforestation in, 128-29, 130solar energy in, 64, 63, 67, 93,

100,101wind power in, 197, 198, 213wood fuel in, log, 110, 111,

134-35, 294Indian Planning Commission, 152Indonesia, 127, 15, 171, 311-

geothermal energy in, 223, 234industrial countries:

biogas digesters in, 152-53coal use in, 18, 19, 21, 23energy conservation in, 2, 9,

32, 33energy-price structure in,

275-76gasoline' efficiency in, 249geothermal enere in, 221-22,

31,

223, 224, 226-29, 230,

231-34hydropower in, 165, 166-67,

168, 169-70, 174, 175-76,177-78, 179, 18-4, 185-86;187, 188, 189, 190

nuclear poWer in, 24-25, 26-28,210

4 3,4

422 Index

industrial countries (continued)oil use in, io, 12-13, 14, 15.renewed interest in wood in,

107, 112-17, 132, 135resident and commercial energy

use in (1978), 39solar building in, 36, 37, 42, 43,

44-45, 47-56, 239wind power in, 194, 196-97,

198, 199, 201-3, 204-7, 208,- 209-13, 215-17waste-to-energy technology in,

154-57see also specific countries

Industrial Revolution, 4, 22, 38industry, 5

combined potential ofrenewables in, 241-43

oil-based, 10, 12role of Wood in, 107, 115-17,

242solar iechnology.in, 69, 79-73,

79, 80-81, 85-86See also commercial energy;

specific industriesInstitute for Environmental

Studies (University ofWisconsin), 304-5

insulation, 36, 38, 41, 43, 44, 49,6o, 238

Intermediate TechnologyDevelopment Group (ITDG),198, 274

International Atomic EnergyAgency, 26

International Energy Agency, 13,78

International Harvester, 120International Institute for Applied

Systems Analysis (IIASA),1-2, 34

43

Air

InterTechnology,Corporation,85-86

Iranian revolution (1979), 12irrigation, 172, 174-75, 18i, 243

wind power and, 191, 194, 196,198, 248

Israel, solar energy in, 44, 45, 59,62, 68, 71, 75, 79, 80, 85

Italy, 188geothermal energy in, 221, 223,

227, 234photovoltaics in, 93, 95, 97, 103

Itiapu Dam, 168-69, 176

Japan, 18, 135, 199, 241, 285, 311building fuel use in, 39, 40energy conservation in, 31, 32energy-price structure in, 276geothermal energy in, 221, 223,

226, 227, 231, 234hydropower in, 167, 184, 185,

'307nuclear energy in, 24, 25, 28oil imports,of,.1o, i5 a

photovidtaics in, 5, 93-95, 96,97, 99-100, 105

R&D in, 77-78, i62, 265, 267solar energy in, 3, 5, 54, 59, 6i,

71, 78-79, 80, 84, 93-95, 96,97, 99-100, 105, 239

waste-to-energy technology in,.155, 157

Japan Hot Springs Association, 231Jerusaleml,artichokes, as energy

crop, 144, 243Jet Propulsion Laboratory, 86Johnson, Brian, ;80-81Johnson, Jack, 146

Kaisq Aluminum Company, 178kelp, as energy crop, 147-48

Kennecott Copper, 84Kenya, 31, 135, 198, 211kerosene, 12, 108, 130, 158, 277Khadi Village Commission, 152Komanoff, Charles, 26-27

Index 423

large- vs. small-scale productionof, 142-43

Mexico, 147, 157, 213energy-price structure in;

276-vgeothermal energy 10, 221, 234natural gas reserves in, 17, 18oil production in; 15, 276-77,

280solar energy in, 64, 85, 68, 79,

93, loomicroelectronics, Photovoltaics

compared to, 89Middle Ages:

geothermal energy in, 221hydtopower in,.165, 166

Morris, Din, iooMoths, David, 306'1Mouchof, Augustin, 58

Nancly (French village of solarhomes), 52

Nash, Roderick, 208Nasser, Carnal Abdel, 171National Academy of Sciences,

U.S., 148National Aeronautics and Space

Administration, U.S. (NASA),204

National Association of HomeBuilders, U.S., 53, 55

National ElectrificationAdministrafion, Philippines,117-18

-National Water Well Association,

U,S., 223

La Grande Complex, 310Lake Shasta Dam, 187 'land use, in renewable society,

298-301Las Caviotas, 198leucaena, in reforestation, 118, 125Libby-Owens-Ford, 84life-cycle costs, 48; 6Q61, 222life-line rates, 284 >

lift translator, 166lighting, 12, 38; 39, 40, 111,149,

237, 247solar, 5o, loop 101

light water reactors, 30lignin, in cellulose, 139Lovins, Amory, 2LUZ International, Ltd., 81

magma, 219, 220, 228, 229Malaysia, 123, 127Maritime Agency, U.S., 199Maryland, 55, 156, 299Mason-Dixon Dairy Farm, 152-53Massachusetts, 156

"change from within" in, 293solar ponds in, 76

Massachusetts, University of, 293Maya Farms, 153mesquite trees, in agro-forestry,

1,47

methane, 23, 137, 147, 149-53,159, 161, 228-29

methanol, 23, 107, 115, 118-21,1.33, 134-35, 251, 303

COst of, 11819, 120

natural gas, 4, 9, 10, 16...18p 237cost of, 17, 18, 58, 61;62, 113,

116, 117, 275, 276flaring of, 17future of, 257-58

436

424 Index

natural gas (continued)' methanol made from, 118, 119,

251

ICSCIVeS Of, 17-18

Nauru, OTEC unit off, 77-78Nepal, 198, 129, 152

hydropower in, 167, 170, 171,172, 182-83, 188, 190

Netherlands, 18, 93wind power in, 193, 205, 206,

254Nevada, geothermal energy in,

221-22 `New Alchemy Institute, 43New Enirgi Development

Organization (NEDO), 265New England Fuelwood Pilot

Project, 132New England River Basins

Commissi9n, 185New Guinea, hydropowcr in, 167,

176, 182New International Economic

Order, 307New Mexico:

geothermal research in, 229solar energy in, 48, 72'

NM York, 305, 310electricity prices in, 177-78Energy Office in, 153urbin wastes in, 154, 158, 162

New Zealand, 167, 197geothermal energy in, 221, 224,

226, 227, 228; 234Nicaragua, energy from wastes in,

153-54Nigeria, 15, 108, 276-77

reforestation in, 129, 130North Dakota State Extension

Service; 10North-South Roundtable, 270-80

437

At:

Norway, 4.4, 167, 168nuclear power, 2, 6, 0, 24-30, 159.,

210civilian vs. military uses of,

25-26COS1 Of, 25, 26-27, 28, 29, 30,

97electricity generated from, 24,

27, 20, 33, 07, 252estimated world capacity for

(198z-200), 29future of, 257-58, 259R&D on, 261, 262-63, 264risks of, 6, 25.-27

--.,social effects of reliance on,

297,798technological fixes and, 29-30

nuclear reactors, 2, 30, 33, 194,216

ocean thermal energy conversation(OTEC), 74, 76-78, 270

office buildings, 50, 238energy inefficiency of, 38, 40

Office of Technology Assessment,U.S., 0, 122, 142, 146, 302

Ohio, solar ponds in, 75Ohio V,alley, coal use in, 21.

oil, 5, 8-16, 34, 42, 113, 237advantages of, 5, 11-12, 249coal compared to, 19, 23, 24decline in consumption of, 9,

14, 249electricity generated from, 10,

24, 59, 252ethanol 2S substitute for, 137,

138-39, 140, 141, 251in global energy pattern, 305-6introduction of, 4, 10natural gas compared to, 17-18price controls on, 276-77

--Index 425

photoelectric effect, 89photosynthesis, 137

Pil0t0v0titics, 3, 4, 5, 87-106, 239,244, 265-66, 267

advantages of, 88-89concentrator systems to use

with, 95, 96, 103cost of, 88, 89, 90, 91-92, 93,

96-97, 102development of, 89-92future of,. roo-ro6, 257marketing of, 99-100oil companies' involvement in,

98-99research horizons of, 92-97rooftop; 102, 239

photovoltaics industry, 88, 91,' 97-100pollution, 6

from coal, 19, 20-23from ethanol production, 141from geothermal energy, 225,

22i-28 1

from wood burning, 14-15,117,r23

power towers, solar, 72price controls, 15, 61, 275-78Princeton University, 202Public Utility Regulatory Policies

Act, U.S. (PURPA; 1978),186, 287

pulping liquors, 06 .

.pumped storage units, 187pumps, 246

he2t, 222-23--solar, 68, 101, 248

wind, 191, 196-99, 211,213-14, 243, 244, 248;267

refining of, 9-10resems of, 14, 15-16solar energy in recovery of, 73windfall, 278-79world dependence on, 10-16world production, Consumption,

and reserves for (1980), 16oil companies, solar involvement

of, 84, 98-99oil embargo (1973), 2, 12,-112,

166oil=lirice increases, 8-9, 12-13, 59,

107, 177, 275energy conservation as response

tO, 2, 9'oil shale, 2, 249-50Oregon, geothermal energy in, 222Organization of Petroleum

,Exporting Countries (OPEC),9, 14, 177, 276-77 ,

rPlac Gas & Electric CoMpany,

.223;233Pakislan; solar electricity in, Kmpalm oil, asfuel, 145Papago Indian Reservation, 101Paraguay, hydropower in, 168-69,

308peaking units, 187PEI, Inc., 81Perlin, John; 37Peru, 67, 213'

hydropower in, 183,.188Philippines, Republic of the; 3,

loo, 153, 241, 303cocodiesel use in, 145-46geothermal eneigy in, 221, 226,

230, 231, 234-35hydropower in, 167, 171, 174wind power in, 197,, 200VIOOd fuel in, 117-18, 135, 254

,

Reigan-administration, energypoli,cy in, 204 212, 264, 291

438

., 426 Index

recessions, 8-9, 14, 31, 49Reddy, Amulya, 134,277`reforestation, 118, 121, 122,

124-25, 126-32, 182importance of social cohesion in,

129-39renewable energy: 4' ,

basic science research and, 268as Till Ilate-speCifiC,2'70, 271

combined potential of, 20-159as decentralized technblogy, 5,

6, 8o, 88_,_98, 101-3, 181-82,

239, 247, 27/economic effects of, 5, 7,

140-41; 146, 149-51, 171,18o, 312z15

efficiency of, 255-56environmental effects Of, 5-6,

13-4 76, 78, 197, 109-10,114-15, 117, 121-26; 127,131, 141, 151, 159, 161-63,171-75, 184-85, 190, 225,227-28, 230-31 270-71, 274

fair chance in marketplace for,291, 294-96,

false starts and wrong turns for,3-4

financing the transition to,

275183future of, 2, 4, 33-34, 55-56,

84-86, 92-97, 100-106,

132-35, 143-44, 159-63,188-90, 213-17, 233-35,236-59

institutions for tiansitiou to,26o-96

lodes of 5, 313-14misconceptions about, 4-5, 33,

292-93_, most promising teamologies of,

4, 265-68

4,3 9

operation and maintenancerequirements of, 271-74

opposition to, 7, 33, 48, 289as political task, 289-96'pros and cons of, 5-6rechanneling resources and, 291,

292-94settling national goals for,

291-92social effects of, 5-6, 7, 149-51,

171, 173-74, 190, 297-316as vernacular tech6logy;

269-74world use of (1980, z000, and

potential), 255, 256research and development (R&D):

new agenda for, 261-69for solar technology, 59, 78-80,

92-97 .residential sector energy use in

(1978), 39resource assessment, research on,

269Revco Plant, 156Rives, Electric CooperatiVe,

289Rocky Flats Wind Center, 267Rogers, Will, 298Romans, incient:

geothermal energy 2nd, 221hydropowtr and, 165solar energy and, 37, 57

run-of-the-river plants, 166rustal46

combined potential ofrenewables in, 245-49

oil use in, 12pall-scale 'hydropower for

developrrient,of, 179-84solar energy for development of,

64-68

urban sector linked to, 135,

' 303=5

' Sacramento Municipal UtilityDistrict, 103

sail-driven ships, 191, 193,199-2co

salt gradient ponds, see solarponds

Salton Seit, 75, 76Sanderson, Fred, 143San Diego County,.bwlding

, staidardsin, 294 ,

' San Diego Savings'and LeanAssociation, 54 .

Sanman Gorge Darn, 172, 271Sanyo Electric, 70, 91Saskatchewan Conservation House,

45, 48.

satellites, solar:4, 89-90, 103-4Saudi, Arabia, 277 .1

photovoltaic system in, 103, 279S'aussure, Nicholas de, 58Savonius rotor, 198:schistosomiasis, 150, 11,3,08iSchtimacher, E. F., i'9 7security, energy and, 5, 298self-reliance, in renewable society,

305-9semiconductors, 87; 89, 2.68'Senegal, 66, 11t

hYdropower in, 174-75Sick, Helmut, 126silicon cells: .

f 'amorphous. 94-95polycrystalline, 94, 96singre-crystal, 90-91,. 93-94, 96

Smil, Vaclav, 151Socrates, 36-37SOFRETES (French company),

68

Index 427

solar cells; see photovoltaics;silicon cells

solar collection, 4, 35, 51; 57-86barriers Ito, 77. 78-84conventional energy sources

compared to, 60-61cost of, 59, 6o-61, 65, 70-71,

268 ,develbpment of technology for,

58future of, 84-86greenhouses in, 43-44

O heat storajge and 6o, 74-78marketing strategies for, 81nuclear model of, 4, 33opposition to utility invoh;ernent

in, 83pumping systems and, 68"for rural development, 64-68technological evolution of,

69-74solar collectors, 238, 239, 24

conceritrating, 71-72design innovations nd, 70evacuated tube, 69, 70-flat-plate, 59-6o, 68, 71installation of, 60materials innovation and, 69-7o,

71

"sandwich," 69traditional use of, 57

SOLI!' cookers, 3, 65

solar design, passive, 3, 4, 5,35-56, 238-39, 240

in architectural mainstream,

47:-48builders' acceptance of, 48, 49,

52

COst of, 44., 47. 48-49, 52, 238diversity of, 46

440

428

solar design, passive (coptinued)'educating about, 53-54elongated east-west axis in, 42financial incentives'for, 53, 54flexibility of, 46-47future of, 55-56; 257heat storage and, 42-43mechanical systems integrated

with, 50old buildings and, 50-51policy changes and, 52-54R&D for, 266, 267retarding heat loss in, 42retrofits and, 51traditional MC Of, 36-38

solar energy, 3, 35-106, 275agricultural applications of,

65-66, 68;85, 243, 244building and, see solar design,

passive

for electricity, 3, 33, 75,87-1o6;1239, 248, 253,265-66; see also photovoltaics

employment and, 302

incentives for, 53, 54, 78-84land required for, 298, 299landscape design and, 299-300large-scale vs. small-scale, 4-5near- vs. long-term applications

of,79-8oR&D-ii-, 265-66, 267

111111 see akfi biomass technology;hydropower; wind power;wood fuel

Solar Energy 2nd Conservation -flank, 279, 282,

Solar Energy Research Institute,U.S. (SERI), 32, 52-53, 70,92, 119-20, 214-15, 265

Solarex.(photovoltaics company),

Index ..

solar heating, see heating, solarSaar Heating and Cooling

Demonstriffon, 276-71 .solar "hot-box," 65

97

4 41

Solari, Paulo, 305Solar Memphis Project, 83Solar One, 72

solar ponds, 3, 5, 74-76, 79, 240,257, 267, 312

inefficiency,of, 74-75, 78worldwide potential of, 86

solar pumps, 68, los, 248solar satellites, 4, 89-90, 103-4solar stills, 66-67solar water heaters, see water

heaters, solarSOrgh1011, aS energy crop, 243, 251Source Phillipe, 67South Africa, 58, 145, 167, 197Southern California Edison, 103South Korea, 15, 64

reforestation in, 128, 129Soviet Union, 181, 241, 285, 288,

296, 310 .

coal in, 19, 20-21, 276energy-price"structure in, 276geothermal energy in, 222, 229,

234hydropower in, 166, 167,

169-70, 176,.187, 189, 311natural gas in, 17, is, 276nuelear power in, 24, 25, 28oil and, 15, 276reforestation in, 122solar energy in, 67, 79,.86, 93wind power in, 205, 210, 214,

215

wood (Mel in, 112,'t 1,3, 135, 239Spain, 185

solar energy in, 37, 78J, 8o, 93Sperry Corporation, 228

ø.

Index 429

Taylor Woodrow Construction,Ltd., 205, 215-16

techncilogy:intermediate, 197-98vernacular, 269-74see also specific topics

Tennessee Valley Authority(TVA), 41, 83, 169, 170, 175,176

Thailand, 66, 108, 110, 170, 198,

Sri Lanka, 112, 200, 279steel industry, 241, 242, 243Stein, Richard, 38stills, solar, 66-67storm windows, 38, 'PP 43, 49 -

stoves, 1.10-11, 112-13, 133, 246pollution from, 114-15

Sudan.13, 108, 127sugar

ethanol produced from, 137,138, 139, 140-41, 144-45,,251

waste-to-energy potential of,

153-54sunflower seeds, fuel from, 144,

145, 243super-glazing, 69-70supply-side approach to energy, 31,

33, 34Survival International, 174Sweden:18, 28, 32, 45:93, 116,

124, 205, 254, 303fuel requirements of buildings

in, 39-49hydropower in, 184, 185

'Switzerland, 183, 186-87, 188synthetic fuels, 6, 118, 249-50,

259i, 307cost of, 19-20, 23, 250

Taniania, 13, 311wood fn4iu, 110, 111-12, Ito

Tasman Pulk and Paper Company,2..21

tax incentives 275, 281782for etba6l production, 141-43for geothermal energy, ti2for restoring small dams, 186foi solar enggy, 54, 80, 8-1 I 295for -wind power, 206, 207, 211for wood stoves, 115

f

221

thatch building-il-sthermal mass, 36, 42,44thin-film solar cells, 94-95 /Third World, see developing

countriesThree COWS Da 111, 160, 173, 176Three Mile Islind, nuclear. .

accident at, 27tin roofs, 46ripping lees,- 1515, 157transportation, 6o

alcohol fuels and,' 3, 5, 23, 107,115, 118-21, 133, 134-35,137-45, 153, 160, 251

of coal, 19, 21combined potential of

renewables for, 249-51energy Conservation-and, 32,

.249 .

of oil, 5, 11, 249oil-dependent, 10, i, 240, 277of wood,416,-tiowood Mei and, 1074 115, 117;

118-21, 134, .251Trombp wall, 43;49, 51turbines:

165-66 -wind, 191, 192, 194,200-205,

208-9, 211-12, 214-15Turkey, 13, 234

442

N

It

430

unemployment, 12-13, 290-91,301 "

Union Oil Company, 231 .Uniteci Nations (UN), 130, 269

Conference on New andRenewable Sources- Of_Energy(1981h .73, 198p 245C

Food gprkAgricultureOrganization, 65

Industrial DevelopmentOrganization COnference(1980)9152

World MeteorologicalOrganization, 213

United States, 40, 111, 252, 266,286, 287,303,310

active solar systems in, 52, 54,58, 61, 62-64 68, 71-74,

.75.776, 77, 80, 85, 302L:mops technology in, 152-53coal industry in, 18, 19, 21, 23efficiency of cars in, 249electric cooperatives in, 289electric Pricing liforin in, 284,

285 ,

energy conseryation irr, 31, 32,

249. energy-price structure int 275,

276. ethanol use in, 137,.138,

141-44, i6o ,

geothermal energy. in, ;n-22,223, .226,. 227, 230,231,232,Z34

. hydropower in, 106, 167,

Index

'

10-70, 177778, 179, 184,185-86,*187, 268, 309-10

inefficient buildings in, 38, 399tural gas in, 16, 17-18nuclear power in, 24,25;26-28,

210'

443-

oil dependime of,-10, 115oil production.in, 15, 279photovaltaics

92'93, 94, 95, 98, 97, 98, 99,100, tot, 102, 103-5 .

Rip expenditures in, 78, 92,212,241,262, 264,265, 267,290

reforestation in, 122,131-32search for energy crops in,145,

146, 147, 148solar building in, 36, 42, 43, 44,. 45, 47-48, 49, 51, 32-33, 55,. 244

solar collector manufacturing in

,(1974-1981), 63space program in, 89-90waste problem in, 154, 158,

162

waste-to-energy technology in,155-57, 158

windfall severance tax in, 278wind power jn, 194, 146, 197,

198, 391-3,-204-7, 208, 209, -2.10, _211-11 i15,116, 267, .

Wood'ftiels in, 3,,,312-13,r16-r7, 119, 122,1,23,135,

.., 242Uppei Volta, 65, 1.10uranium, 7,30, 177urban ViatteS, 2S energy, source,

r 137, 1545.4, 16.1U.S.-Windpower, Inc., 206-7

.Venezuela:hydropower in, 171, 279,3.11.oil production in,.276-77, 279,

280lientilation, 43, 45, 46vernacular technologies, 269-74

Village House 1, 48von Hippel, Frank, 251Vosbeck, R Randall, 41

witer heaters, 39, 237solar, 3, 57, 58-59, 61-62,

67-68, 76, 8o, 82, 84-85,236, 240, 270-71, 295

water hya inths, as energy crop,

147watexwël technology, 165, 166,

180, 193, 309Way, George E., 5oWestiaghouse, George, i66.

-Weyerhaeuser, 115-16, 12.3Wild and Scenic Rivers Act, 184wind:

availability of, 195origin of, 192

wind farms, 5, 2037, 208, 214,215-16

Windfarms Limited, 206-7windmills, 193-94, 197, 1,98, 199

4011wind power, 3, 4, 5, 33, 191-217

236, 238,,312assessment Of, 212-13cost of, 196, 200, 202, 206-7,

210-11,electricity from, 191.-92, 194,

200-20j, 209-11, 214716,239, 244, 247, 253, 254

future of, 213-17, 257historical use of, 193-94land-use effects of, 207-8

a

Index 411

R&D for, 265-66, 267, 268for utilities, 2o3-7, 209-11

wind pumps, 191, 196-99, 211,213-14, 243, 244, 248, 267

Wisconsin, Univeisity of, 304-5wood alcohol, we methanolwood fuel, 3, 4, ii, 33, 37,40,

107-35, 139, 275, 303cost of, 109, 113, 116, 117efficient burning of, no-11,

133'electricity from, 107, 115, 116,

117-18'future of, 132-35, 239-40, 256'gasifitation of, 115017, 133industrial WC of, 107, 1*15-17,

242,new USCS for, 107-8, 115-21pelletized, 116-17in residential heating, io7,

112-14see a/so- forests

World Bank, 34, 129, 130, 131,140-41, 231, 245, 269, 280

hydropower projects 2nd, 176,178, 179080, 183

World COal Study, 19, 23World Energy Conference, 190World War II, 307

wood fuel in, 117, 118

WM2r, ittall and Levi, 59

Zambia, 175, 197Zeopower, 74

444

US- adPAR10( . onaiiezeneabe S011-111e nifficane:ot age, **kat moovitions a44-4uOgeSsAll developmentOfftwik isk- the last decade sbowitjat hwnany 010, 1.neet Malty 9f:itsepessr*e4g 'toy harne sing the inezhsustible 49,4 citiAmrc.,.0*-40**** the Iiiinth0 ,i14i0irl,

Reo is 4.4rosolort kprefutlook at the,glohil itneqytleni-01***)! and _Ch!iitOPhgrfltYillA 4'4%0_ Om*isseuthtacivaOces cnntk deYel9P4111P PI**UM* 0:0CFCA W990 Ind by440er fir-44Y:PlgY 44*-101!**,*911c1 enenY eeCnO0Y. 0.***1#.1*dgigil, V1.96d-acOlibl>Plibin.es.2_,10440,*14:40.Y044.4,celii arP is!n°Pg,,* 4`1.101!'-4000.1rPOurPt_k4kdy to VOW in use most TAPi4V, Individual :.c9.494fe!Pave the way with par** tetibnologiesi as has giready heenahnyipby,14041 in ',len* ftielsj Japanin folar ccillectotsand the-POO-

'Pii,es-41409.thetmg.enettY,ReneWable energy it mit only an economicatajtenuttiveto Coal anct

noclearpOwe4 tbe authors arguey hut cinhelprelievcnnemployment,envirOo*ital-degraclation, and other For.sintproblemse. The book_describes %Oat life could be like in a wor14-_poweied, by renewableenergy; noting thai differences in Climate, natural resenrces, and'econoMicithilosoPhy will help determine whiCh energY sources .are

_ ,Uaerjousrgios. . ,

, doing beyondthe generalities that have dominatOrecent energypolicy debates, Deuciney ind Flavin detail a Plan of action to, promotesound 'energy development in riCb and poor nations, aliice. TheycOnclude that institntions slid pOliticsnot resource liinftv*-cori-strain die-use of renewable 'energy. .

,

DANIEL DEUDNEY and CHRISTOPHER FLAyIN are senior researcherswith the N%brldwatch Institute in:Washington, D.C. lfach has writtennumerous papers awl articles on energy, technologies, and policies.

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