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School provision review for Preston

Stage One: needs analysis

Department of Education and Training Final report

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Glossary of terms

Executive summary

1 Introduction

2 Stage one study area

3 Planning context

3.1 State policy

3.2 Local planning context3.2.1 Land use3.2.2 Population growth and population profile3.2.3 Learnings from the engagement process relating to the local planning context

4 Existing secondary school provision

4.1 Secondary schools

4.2 Specialist schools

5 Needs assessment

5.1 Secondary school needs assessment5.1.1 Demand forecasts5.1.2 Trends in access5.1.3 Capacity analysis


5.3 Engagement findings relating to trends in demand and access

5.4 Engagement findings to be considered in stage two

6 Conclusions

Appendices

Appendix A: Stage one project methodology

Appendix B: Land use map

Appendix C: Forecast population growth for secondary-school-aged children

Appendix D: SEIFA Index of Disadvantage

Appendix E: Total secondary school age demand

Appendix F: Market share analysis

Appendix G: Student address analysis

Appendix H: Enrolment demand analysis

Appendix I: Individual government secondary school reports

Appendix J: Specialist school demand calculations

SCHOOL PROVISION REVIEW FOR PRESTON, FINAL REPORT

Glossary of terms

Demand reporting units (DRUs): the areas around a school that align with the statistical building blocks (ABS Statistical Area Level 1s - SA1s) closest to that school. These are used in demographic analysis only. The DRUs closely resemble the school’s designated neighbourhood boundary.

Current school capacity: the estimated current number of students that can be accommodated within the school facilities, including relocatable classrooms.

Permanent school capacity: the estimated number of students that can be accommodated within the school's permanent teaching facilities (therefore excluding relocatable classrooms).

Local enrolment: the number of school-aged students that live in the DRU of their local school and also attend it.

Total school demand: the number of school-aged students either living in, or forecast to live in the DRU (see above).

Government school demand: the number of school-aged students either living in, or forecast to live in the DRU (see above) attending a government school.

Market share: the percentage of total demand within the DRU that attend a government school.

School-aged students: children aged five to 11 years (primary) or 12 to 17 years (secondary).

Designated neighbourhood boundary (sometimes known as a school catchment boundary) (Boundary): defines the enrolment area of a government school campus and determines the residential area for which that campus is the nearest government school. This is derived using two different methodologies depending on where a student lives:

For the Melbourne region, Geelong, Ballarat and Bendigo, the boundary is calculated by drawing the midway point, in a straight line, between the location of the school and all surrounding government school campuses offering similar education provision. The catchment formed by this boundary cuts across geographic features such as residential blocks, roads and rivers.

For any other area of Victoria, the boundary is calculated by determining the shortest practicable route by distance from residences to the school using all-weather public roads drivable by car.

Note—for a small number of campuses with restricted education provision (e.g. senior secondary campuses), the designated neighbourhood boundary is determined using a different methodology.

Designated neighbourhood zone (Zone): represents the enrolment area served by a government school campus after the Department of Education and Training has approved a change to the designated neighbourhood boundary in response to pressure on enrolment capacity. The boundary of a zone typically follows geographic features such as roads and rivers.

Victorian Auditor-General: an independent office of the Victorian Parliament, appointed to examine the management of resources within the public sector on behalf of Parliament and all Victorians.

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Executive summaryCapire Consulting Group (Capire) and Spatial Vision have been commissioned by the Department of Education and Training (the Department) to undertake a needs assessment for additional secondary school provision within the Preston school network. The assessment synthesises school planning data provided by the Department with feedback and consultation received from representatives of the local community, Darebin City Council (Council), local school principals and a community reference group.

The project is being conducted over two stages. Stage one (this report) assesses the level of need generated from Preston and the surrounding communities for secondary school education. Stage two will develop options to meet identified need.

Key issues:

Planning for schools in established communities is complex. This analysis has identified that reputation, quality and access are key factors that a family considers when choosing a school for their child.

The analysis has identified that:

The study area will experience an increase of approximately 3,600 secondary-school-aged students between 2011 and 2031. It is anticipated that a high proportion of this growth will occur in Preston, Reservoir and Coburg.

In some locations, there are differences between projected enrolments and the school’s forecast demand according to local Demand Reporting Units (DRUs). This suggests that families are not always accessing their local school and that some schools are attracting students from outside their local area.

The reputation of a school is acting as an attractor (when positive) and a barrier (when negative) and therefore some schools within the network are experiencing more demand pressure than others.

Some schools have a high reliance on relocatable classrooms to achieve total capacity. There is concern from Council, principals and community stakeholders regarding the sustainability of this approach, as well as the possible impact on non-built school facilities, such as access to outdoor areas and play spaces.

Key findings:

There is likely to be a shortfall of approximately 1,600 government secondary school enrolment places across the study area.

The DRUs likely to experience the most significant demand pressures are:

Thornbury High School DRU: This school is likely to experience a shortfall of approximately 600 enrolment places. This school currently attracts a number of families from the Reservoir High School DRU. However, enrolment trends indicate that many families that live in the Thornbury High School DRU are accessing schools outside of the DRU, particularly Northcote High School and Kew High School (which is outside the study area).

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Coburg High School DRU: This school is likely to experience a shortfall of approximately 800 enrolment places. Similar to the Thornbury High School DRU, a significant number of families who reside in the Coburg High School DRU are not accessing school locally.

Preston is located within both of these DRUs.

Thornbury High School currently relies on relocatable classrooms to provide 150 additional enrolment places. It is anticipated that Thornbury High School will continue to require additional capacity to meet local demand in the long term.

Northcote High School provides 550 enrolment places in relocatable classrooms. By 2030, Northcote High School will require some of the additional capacity currently provided in relocatable classrooms to meet local demand.

Recommendations:

It is recommended that stage two of the project is undertaken and should include:

Further analysis of transport and access to better understand how people move through the area. The analysis should consider access to existing and future schools by different modes of transport including cycling, walking, driving and public transport.

Investigation of options to increase secondary school provision to support the Preston community.

Investigation of the longer term use of relocatable classrooms on existing school sites to achieve total capacity.

Assessment of the impacts that potential options will have on schools that currently support the Preston community.

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1 IntroductionIn recent years, strong population growth has seen a resurgence of student populations in many middle-suburban areas. The Department of Education and Training (the Department) is aware that enrolment pressure is being experienced by schools that support the Preston area. There is a commitment by state and local planning authorities to ensure that projected enrolment is monitored and planned for.

Project background

In 2013, Preston Girls’ Secondary College was closed after several years of declining enrolments. The former site has been retained by the Department in the event that the site will be required for future secondary school provision. A key election commitment of the Victorian Government was to undertake an assessment of the need for, and viability of additional secondary school provision in and surrounding Preston, and consideration of reopening Preston Girls’ Secondary College.

Project scope

This project is an assessment of the need for, and viability of additional secondary school provision in Preston. The project is being conducted over two stages. This report is stage one. It assesses the level of need generated from the Preston community for secondary school education.

See Appendix A for stage one project methodology.

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2 Stage one study areaIn line with the Victorian Government’s election commitment to undertake an assessment of additional secondary school provision in and surrounding Preston, the study area for stage one is focused around Preston and the nearby suburbs of Alphington, Fairfield, Northcote, Coburg, Reservoir, Thornbury, Bundoora-Macleod, Fawkner, Heidelberg Heights and Kingsbury. Suburbs outside of Preston have been included to identify all of the schools that families currently travel to. It is important to identify these access patterns to understand the impact that a new school in Preston may have on the broader network.

The study area has been defined for demographic analysis only and to assist in understanding trends in school access. The study area for this project will not be used to determine future locations of new schools.

The study area was defined in collaboration with the community and is based on school Demand Reporting Units (DRUs). It also includes schools that have been identified as potentially being affected by changes in school provision in Preston.

The study area is illustrated in Figure 1.

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Figure 1: Study area showing included DRU boundaries

Source: Spatial Vision, November 2015

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3 Planning context

3.1 State policy

This section outlines the Department’s school provision planning in Victoria. It is important context for understanding how schools are planned and how funding is prioritised.

Victorian Government policy

As outlined in the Education State Reform policy, the Victorian Government is committed to delivering a high quality education system. The vision for Victoria as the Education State is about the guarantee of educational excellence and opportunity in every community. Part of the Victorian Government’s commitment to becoming the Education State is ensuring ‘every community has access to a great school’.

The Victorian Government aims to provide school students with disabilities access to a range of education opportunities across mainstream supported inclusion and specialist settings. The Victorian Government has made a commitment that all newly built government schools – or schools undertaking planning works – will provide facilities to accommodate the diverse needs of students. The Victorian Government supports the creation of inclusive facilities to allow students to learn in a positive, safe and accessible environment that supports their development and encourages better student outcomes.

The Department is currently reviewing the Program for Students with Disabilities (PSD). This review is intended to increase the capacity of government schools to support and maximise the learning of children with disabilities using a family friendly, strength-based approach.

Approach to school provision planning

DET has the following key objectives when planning schools across Victoria:

ensure there is sufficient capacity to accommodate all government school students that currently live or are expected to live in a given area

carefully balance key outcomes, including accessibility, viability and financial sustainability

deliver schools that meet the diverse needs of their local communities.

For many years the growth in the number of school-aged children in Victoria remained relatively stable. However, population forecasts project significant growth in school-aged children across the Victoria. The growth is likely to increase pressure on existing infrastructure and increase demand for new schools.

As illustrated in Figure 2, the City of Darebin is projected to have a reasonable increase in school-aged children compared to the fastest growing municipalities in Victoria for 5 to 19 year olds between 2016 and 2031.

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Figure 2: Number of 5 to 19 year olds in 2016 and 2031 in the fastest growing municipalities in Victoria compared to Darebin

Source: Victoria in the Future 2015; Capire, November 2015

In addition to managing this high rate of growth, the Department has the ongoing challenge of managing the viability of existing infrastructure across Victoria. The Victorian Auditor-General identified a surplus of 38 per cent of building space across the education portfolio1. Although this may not significantly impact existing schools supporting residents in Preston, the long-term viability of a school is a key influencing factor when considering the development of new infrastructure.

The Department measures long-term demand for primary and secondary school by calculating the demand generated within the school’s DRU. This supports the Department’s policy to provide local access to education. The analysis in this report suggests enrolment data can sometimes be significantly different from local DRU demand.

Short-term enrolment demand is used to understand trends in access, as well as school capacity, teaching requirements and funding entitlements. There are limitations in planning for permanent school infrastructure using enrolment demand given it can fluctuate over time and is often linked to the reputation of the school.

The Department manages the use of relocatable classrooms to achieve total capacity of a school. Government policy is that capacity is managed in the first instance by using relocatable classrooms. If increased capacity is required in the long term, the Department considers the development of additional permanent facilities.

The Department has engaged a consultant to undertake a review of key standards and models underpinning its approach to the planning of new government schools. Project outputs will assist the Department to make more efficient and effective decisions regarding school planning and seeks to support the delivery of a high performance asset base and improved educational outcomes.

The review will examine key planning standards that inform the location, size and configuration of new government schools across the State of Victoria, as well as strategies to manage

1 Implementation of School Infrastructure Programs, Victorian Auditor-General, February 2013

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temporary peaks in school enrolments. The work involves a review of similar approaches in other jurisdictions, analysis of key demographic data, geospatial analysis and stakeholder engagement.

Prioritisation of projects

The Department recognises that the prioritisation of need across Victoria must be balanced and equitable. In order to prioritise projects each year the Department undertakes analysis and evaluation of proposed new school projects and school upgrades to identify future need. These projects are prioritised for consideration in the annual budget process for school capital investments across the State of Victoria.

3.2 Local planning context

This section provides an overview of the local planning context for school provision in the Preston study area. It includes existing land uses, current and future demographics, current school provision and enrolment trends.

3.2.1 Land use The majority of the study area is located in the City of Darebin, between five and 10 kilometres north of the Melbourne CBD. The municipality is comprised predominantly of established residential areas. There are also areas of light industrial to the north and within Thornbury, Coburg and Reservoir and a range of commercial uses in the south.

There are a number of significant physical barriers dividing the study area, including major roads such as Bell Street, three train lines (Epping, Hurstbridge and Craigieburn) and natural features including Merri Creek, Darebin Creek and the Yarra River.

A detailed map of land uses is provided in Appendix B.

3.2.2 Population growth and population profile The policy review has identified a range of policy and urban development factors impacting population growth in the study area.

Plan Melbourne

The Victorian Government policy to guide population growth in the Melbourne metropolitan area, Plan Melbourne 2014 supports the notion of 20-minute neighbourhoods by providing access to a wide range of goods and services in centres that are planned and coordinated by local governments. These are referred to as ‘activity centres’ and aim to accommodate population growth and provide employment and local economies.

There are three designated activity centres in the study area. These are located in Preston-High Street, Preston-Northland and Northcote. Plan Melbourne 2014 also recognises that Northland Shopping Centre has significant capacity to accommodate new jobs and housing.

Population projections

The Department uses population forecasts developed specifically for the Department by demographic consultants to forecast future demand for school provision. The population forecasts take into account the latest ABS data, building approvals, aerial photography,

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Victorian Government development data, as well as input from local councils across Victoria to forecast the future population.

Population projections indicate that the population aged between 12 and 17 years in the City of Darebin is expected to increase by over 2,200 persons between 2011 and 2031. This is an increase of 31 per cent.

The distribution of school-aged children across the network is expected to remain relatively stable between 2011 and 2031. Preston is expected to experience the most significant growth in secondary-school-aged children.

See Appendix C for a more detailed map illustrating the change in secondary school children across the study area.

Socio-economic characteristics

The northern part of the study area has relatively higher levels of socio-economic disadvantage.

The John Fawkner Secondary College DRU and William Ruthven Secondary College DRU display the highest levels of disadvantage. Coburg High School DRU generally has a moderate level of disadvantage however, it also has some pockets of low disadvantage.

The southern and eastern boundaries of the study area have lower levels of disadvantage. Northcote High School DRU has the least disadvantage within the study area.

See Appendix D for more detail regarding the distribution of disadvantage.

3.2.3 Learnings from the engagement process relating to the local planning contextThroughout the engagement process, local community representatives, school principals and local government participants raised the following issues in regard to land use, built form and population growth:

Preston and the surrounding area has experienced significant residential development and population growth in recent years, including increasing residential densities. There has been a trend of residents moving from Northcote and Thornbury to Preston to access more affordable housing options, and people from the neighbouring municipalities of Whittlesea and Banyule moving south to access better education options.

The future mix of public housing tenants is unknown. It is important to engage public housing tenants in the conversation about future school provision.

Some of the light industrial land near and within Preston is being redeveloped for commercial and residential uses.

The joint community infrastructure project between City of Darebin, Banyule City Council and La Trobe University covers a significant amount of the study area. The project is anticipating significant population growth and has developed two population scenarios, a low growth and a high growth for the project.

Preston is a strong and increasingly multicultural community. Council sees significant opportunities for supporting different cultural groups and needs through the school system.

Many families are reluctant to move north of the study area as most travel south towards the city to access employment, and services and facilities.

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When moving east to west there is strong car dependence.

The community expressed a preference for walking and cycling where possible. Council supports less car dependence and provision of local community infrastructure to facilitate this.

The nature of local housing stock is changing. Given the gentrification of the area, a large proportion of traditional three-bedroom housing stock is being demolished and subdivided and townhouses are being constructed.

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4 Existing secondary school provision

4.1 Secondary schools

Government secondary schools

There are currently seven government secondary schools in the study area. Table 1 details both the permanent capacity and total capacity of each school (total capacity includes all relocatable classrooms) as well 2015 enrolments. The distribution of existing government secondary schools in the study area is uneven, with no secondary school in Preston (see Figure 1).

Table 1: Existing government secondary schools

School Permanent capacity

Total Ca-pacity

Current en-rolments

(2015)Spare ca-

pacity

Charles La Trobe College 600 600 253 347Coburg High School 900 900 265 635John Fawkner Secondary College 550 550 358 192Northcote High School 1,150 1,700 1,651 49Reservoir High School 1,000 1,000 574 426Thornbury High School 1,150 1,300 1,181 119William Ruthven Secondary College 850 900 449 451Total 6,200 6,950 4,731 2,219

Source: DET, November 2015; Spatial Vision, November 2015.

As illustrated in Table 1, there are several schools utilising relocatable classrooms to increase their total capacity. These include:

Northcote High School (additional 550 enrolments provided by relocatable classrooms)

Thornbury High School (additional 150 enrolments provided by relocatable classrooms).

A number of government secondary schools are operating below capacity, including Coburg High School, Reservoir High School, William Ruthven Secondary College and Charles La Trobe College. It is important to note that prior to 2015, Coburg High School only operated as a senior campus (Years 10–12). The school’s junior campus opened in 2015 taking Year 7 enrolments only.

Trends in government secondary school enrolments

Analysis of school enrolments between 2011 and 2015 shows that a number of schools have had comparatively stable enrolments over the last five years, including William Ruthven Secondary College and Charles La Trobe (except between 2011 and 2012 when the school was opened).

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However, other schools have had significant fluctuations, including:

Thornbury High School had consistently strong growth between 2011 and 2014 with a total of 370 additional enrolments. However, the school experienced a decrease of 34 enrolments between 2014 and 2015.

John Fawkner Secondary College had consistently decreasing enrolments between 2011 and 2014, with a total decrease of 87 enrolments. However, this trend slowed between 2014 and 2015.

Reservoir High School had a total decline of 78 enrolments between 2011 and 2013. However, between 2013 and 2015 it experienced an increase of 34 enrolments.

Northcote High School had a relatively consistent increase in enrolments each year, with a slight drop between 2012 and 2013.

There are limitations in analysing enrolment trends for Coburg High School. The senior campus has been operating Years 10-12 since 2007. The junior campus opened in 2015, offering Year 7 enrolments. Consequently, between 2014 and 2015, the school had an increase of 128 enrolments, equivalent to a 93 per cent increase. It is anticipated that enrolments will continue to increase as Years 8 and 9 are introduced.

See Appendix H for more detail regarding historical and forecast enrolment data.

Non-government secondary schools

There are 10 non-government secondary schools in the study area:

Alphington Grammar School

Australian International Academy of Education

Darul Ulum College of Victoria

East Preston Islamic College

Ivanhoe Girls' Grammar School

Ivanhoe Grammar School

Mercy College

Parade College

Santa Maria College

St John's College Preston.




There are currently two government specialist schools in the study area. Table 2 details both the historic enrolments for these schools, as well as 2015 enrolments.

Table 2: Specialist school demand data

Name of Specialist SchoolHistoric Enrolments Change

(#) (2011–

15)

Change (%)

(2011–15)

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Croxton Special School 154 155 153 145 169 15 9.39

Northern School for Autism 98 78 131 150 166 68 68.97Total 253 233 284 295 335 82 32.57

Source: DET, November 2015; Spatial Vision, November 2015

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5 Needs assessment

5.1 Secondary school needs assessment

5.1.1 Demand forecasts Total demand

The demand for secondary-school-aged children (12 to 17 years) was analysed at the DRU level to examine how the total number of secondary-school-aged children is expected to change between 2011 and 2031.

The study area is expected to have an increase of approximately 3,600 secondary-school-aged children between 2011 and 2031, which is equivalent to an almost 25 per cent increase. The DRUs likely to experience the most significant population growth in secondary-school-aged children are:

Coburg High School DRU (approximately 1,200 additional students)

Thornbury High School DRU (approximately 1,100 additional students)

Northcote High School DRU (approximately 900 additional students).

See Appendix E for more detailed data regarding total secondary-school-aged demand for each DRU.

Market share analysis

Government schools cater for a portion of total secondary school demand, with the remaining demand absorbed by Catholic and independent schools. To determine future government school demand, the government school share for each DRU within the study area between 2011 and 2015 was calculated. The analysis illustrated only a slight variance in the government market share between 2011 and 2015.

More detailed analysis is required to forecast government school market share, which is outside the scope of this assessment. The government market share as at 2015 for each of the DRUs has been used to forecast future government school demand from 2016 to 2031. This is detailed in Table 3.

See Appendix F for more detail regarding the market share analysis undertaken for this study.

Government demand forecasts

Table 3 illustrates the demand for government secondary schools for each DRU when the DRU government market share is applied to the projected total secondary school demand. The analysis shows that there is likely to be an increase of approximately 1,900 government secondary school students between 2011 and 2031. This is equivalent to an increase of over 94 per cent.



In line with total school demand projections, the DRUs likely to experience the most significant increases in government primary school demand are:

Coburg High School DRU (approximately 400 additional students)

Thornbury High School DRU (approximately 500 additional students)

Northcote High School DRU (approximately 800 additional students).

Table 3: Projected government secondary school demand between 2011 and 2031

Government secondary school DRU

Government school mar-

ket share (2015)

Government secondary school de-mand*

Change (#)

(2011–31)

Change (%) (2011–

31)2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Charles La Trobe College 40.5 548 522 558 592 614 66 11.97

Coburg High School2

41.7 1,269 1,286 1,386 1,531 1,662 393 30.95

John Fawkner Secondary College 39.4

773 731 706 712 729 -44 -5.71

Northcote High School68.9 966 1,195 1,370 1,601 1,80

2 836 86.52

Reservoir High School51.8 1,168 1,106 1,125 1,198 1,24

7 79 6.75

Thornbury High School43.8 1,370 1,374 1,489 1,697 1,90

7 537 39.20

William Ruthven Secondary College 40.4

573 521 555 589 600 27 4.70

Summary 46.6 6,667 6,736 7,189 7,920 8,560 1,893 28.39

*Numbers are forecasts and approximate only Source: DET, November 2015; Spatial Vision, November 2015

5.1.2 Trends in access An analysis of access trends was undertaken to understand movement patterns within and outside the network. The analysis included student address mapping and enrolment forecasts, as well as consultation findings.

Student address mapping

The analysis of the 2015 enrolment data detailing student addresses highlighted that while some schools service a relatively local enrolment population, a number of schools are attracting large proportions of families living outside of the school’s DRU. A number of students (1,420) travel from outside the study area to access schools within the study area, particularly to Thornbury High school, Reservoir High School and Northcote High School. The schools that service a more local enrolment population are:

John Fawkner Secondary College (55.59 per cent of enrolments within the school’s DRU)

Northcote High School (45.46 per cent of enrolments within the school’s DRU).

Families travel the furthest to attend John Fawkner Secondary College with a median distance of 10.5 kilometres and Thornbury High School with a median distance of 6.8 kilometres.

Additionally, the student address mapping highlighted that there are a number of students not accessing their designated local school and are traveling to other schools within the study area. For example, 286 students are travelling from the Coburg High School DRU to Northcote High

2 The junior campus at Coburg High School began taking enrolments in 2015 (Year 7 only). It is possible that the market share for Coburg High School may change once the junior school starts taking Year 8 and 9 enrolments.

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School. There are also a number of students (approximately 3,000) accessing schools outside of the study area.

For more detailed data relating to the student address analysis see Appendix G.

Enrolment projections

Comparison of the DRU government school demand data and enrolment forecast data to 2020 identified that DRU government school demand is estimated to be approximately 300 students higher than projected enrolments.

This is consistent with the student address mapping that illustrated that a high number of students access schools outside of the study area, therefore reducing enrolment demand for schools within the study area. An exception to this trend is Northcote High School, where the school’s enrolment forecasts are approximately 800 students more than its DRU government secondary school demand.

See Appendix H for more detailed enrolment forecasts.

5.1.3 Capacity analysis As illustrated in Table 4 and Figure 3, when considering existing school capacity and DRU government school demand, there is likely to be a total deficit of approximately 1,600 government secondary school enrolment places across the study area by 2031. All DRUs are expected to experience a deficit with the exception of William Ruthven Secondary College. The DRUs likely to experience the most significant capacity concerns are:

Thornbury High School (deficit of approximately 600 enrolments)

Coburg High School (deficit of approximately 800 enrolments)

Thornbury High School and Northcote High School currently rely on relocatable classrooms to provide an additional 150 and 550 enrolment places respectively.

Both of these schools are likely to need additional capacity in the long term. The Department needs to consider how relocatable classrooms are used in the long term to meet demand.

See Appendix I for detailed individual government school reports for the schools identified above, illustrating the comparison between demand, enrolments and capacity between 2011 and 2031.



Table 4: DRU government school demand capacity assessment

Government Sec-ondary School

Government school demand* Existing capacity

Remaining capacity

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031Charles La Trobe College 548 522 558 592 614 600 52 78 42 8 -14

Coburg High School 1,269 1,286 1386 1,531 1,662 900 -369 -386 -486 -631 -762

John Fawkner Secondary College 773 731 706 712 729 550 -223 -181 -156 -162 -179

Northcote High School 966 1,195 1370 1,601 1,802 1,700 734 505 330 99 -102

Reservoir High School 1,168 1,106 1125 1,198 1,247 1,000 -168 -106 -125 -198 -247

Thornbury High School 1,370 1,374 1489 1,697 1,907 1,300 -70 -74 -189 -397 -607

William Ruthven Secondary College 573 521 555 589 600 900 327 379 345 311 300

Total 6,667 6,735 7,189 7,920 8,561 6,950 283 215 -239 -970 -1,611*Numbers are forecasts and approximate only Source: DET, November 2015; Spatial Vision, November 2015

Figure 3: Secondary school demand, enrolment and capacity overview

Please note: school capacity is not fixed and it is Department policy that additional demand is managed with relocatable classrooms in the short-term where necessary.

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Forecasted specialist school demand has been calculated based on the following two key assumptions provided by the Department:

on average, 3.7 per cent of school-aged children will have some form of disability

on average, 45 per cent of school-aged children with disabilities will enrol in a government specialist school.

Based on these assumptions it is anticipated that by 2031, there will be demand across the study area for over 300 government specialist school enrolments for secondary-school-aged children.

This analysis does not consider specialist school provision in a holistic sense as these schools typically draw children from a much wider network, depending on the education programs offered at each special school, and may cater to different disability needs. To examine demand for government specialist school facilities, a specialised study area would need to be developed and demand examined on a school by school basis.

See Appendix K for more detailed calculations for specialist school demand.

5.3 Engagement findings relating to trends in demand and access

Throughout the engagement process, local community representatives, school principals and local government participants raised the following issues:

Transport and access

Families want to encourage children to travel to school independently on safe public transport routes that are easy to navigate.

There is a strong community preference for walking and cycling to school and a reduced dependence on car travel.

North-south public transport linkages are generally satisfactory however, it is more difficult to move east to west across the study area. This is due to the linear nature of the railway line and limited bus services across the municipality. In particular, families find it difficult to access Thornbury High School (travelling east) and Charles La Trobe (moving north) on public transport. As a result, families travelling east to west have higher rates of car dependency.

There is concern that without a local secondary school in Preston, students will spend more time traveling to other secondary schools and have less time available to participate in their local community before or after school, such as sport and local part-time employment.

Bell Street and the Yarra River were identified as major barriers to easy school access.

A number of participants felt that John Fawkner Secondary School, Charles La Trobe College and William Ruthven Secondary College were not accessible for Preston families’ due to distance and lack of access.



Perceptions and reputations

A school’s reputation can be a significant influencing factor when families are deciding where to enrol a child.

Families need to feel that the school they are sending their children to is a safe place for wellbeing and development.

5.4 Engagement findings to be considered in stage two

There were a number of issues raised through the stage one consultation program relating to the development of options to improve provision in Preston, criteria for assessing options and defining the study area for stage two. All additional engagement findings will be explored further in stage two. They include the following:

The significant role that a local school plays in fostering a ‘sense of community’ needs to be recognised.

There is an increasing trend of young families choosing to stay in the area to raise their family.

Families would prefer to have access to a secondary school within their existing community catchments. They see an opportunity to feed the four local Preston primary schools into one Preston secondary school.

The definition of ‘local’ can differ from person to person depending on their capacity and willingness to travel distances.

Population transience, such as communities with higher rates of rental households, can negatively impact a sense of community.

Schools should have well equipped facilities including access to technology, permanent (i.e. not relocatable) buildings, and be suitable for supporting learning and wellbeing.

Preston is planned to be a busy activity centre with a range of residential, commercial and employment opportunities. Council policy strongly supports community building, environmentally sustainable design and shared community facilities such as school sites that provide community access outside of school hours.

School planning needs a network approach. Timing is important as the population is growing rapidly and there is pressure on some existing local secondary schools. It is important to promote schools with vacancies and work as a network, for example, promote Reservoir High School and Charles La Trobe.

There is strong support for the Preston Girls’ Secondary College to be reopened as a coeducation secondary school. Coeducation was identified by the community as the preferred model for secondary schooling in the area.

The Darebin community is showing strong demand for alternative education streams such as those at The Northern College of the Arts and Technology.

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6 ConclusionsThe analysis in this report indicates that in the period 2011-25, projected secondary school enrolments are likely to exceed current capacity across the study area. By 2031, the study area is expected to have a shortfall of approximately 1,600 government secondary school enrolment places.

The DRUs likely to experience the most significant demand pressures include:

Thornbury High School DRU: This school is expected to have a shortfall of approximately 600 enrolment places. However, enrolment trends indicate that many families who live in this DRU are accessing schools outside of it, particularly Northcote High School and Kew High School (which is outside the study area). Thornbury High School currently attracts a number of families from the Reservoir High School DRU. Thornbury High School also currently relies on relocatable classrooms to achieve total capacity.

Coburg High School DRU: This school is expected to have a shortfall of around 800 enrolment places. Similarly to the Thornbury High School DRU, a significant number of families access school outside of the local DRU, particularly Northcote High School. Demand for this school has been calculated using the 2015 government market share for this DRU. However, Coburg High School’s junior campus opened in 2015, only offering Year 7 in addition to its existing senior campus (Years 9, 10 and 11). Further analysis of the school’s market share will be required once the junior campus is offering Years 8 and 9, as its market share may change.

Key issues identified through the consultation process

The following key issues were identified through the consultation process:

School reputations, both positive and negative, impact how the network operates. Schools of choice are experiencing increasing enrolment pressures and less popular schools can experience viability issues.

There are no clear feeder school relationships between primary and secondary schools in the network. This is seen to negatively impact the local ‘sense of community’. Participants in the engagement process felt that Preston has a strong community and believe that the provision of a local high school would enhance that.

Access and public transport was highlighted as a significant issue throughout the consultation. There is a strong preference to facilitate independent travel to school but families feel that public transport connections are poor and that there is a lack of safe cycling routes to some schools.



Considerations for stage two

The following considerations have been identified for stage two of the project:

Develop options to identify when, where and how additional needs should be met in the future.

Assess the suitability of the Preston Girls’ Secondary College site to accommodate additional secondary school need.

Undertake further analysis of transport and access to better understand how people move through the area. The analysis should consider the accessibility of existing and future schools by different modes of transport, including cycling, walking, driving and public transport.

Consider how schools currently supporting Preston families will be impacted by any new provision.

Further consider the government school market share trends and how they are likely to change once Coburg High School’s junior campus is more established.

Consider the implications of maintaining a high reliance on relocatable classrooms in the long-term.

Ensure that options address additional issues and concerns raised by the community during consultation for stage one, including:

issues relating to transport and access

factors influencing choice and reputation

support for schools that are inclusive of students with different abilities and supportive of the needs of families from different socio-economic and cultural backgrounds.

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Appendices

Appendix A: Stage one project methodology


1. Background review including history surrounding the review, identification of preliminary issues and opportunities, and identification of the project stakeholders.

Stakeholder and community engagement

4. Community workshop to seek feedback on the approach and help develop a rigorous process for determining school provision needs, as well as share information and explore local issues and perspectives.

5. Stakeholder meetings to undertake focused discussions with key external stakeholders to identify key issues and opportunities relating to the study area. Stakeholders included local councils, schools and agencies.

Refinement of study area and approach to determining need

6. Data analysis following feedback on the study area and analysis approach, the study area was refined for data analysis.

7. Community Reference Group (CRG) was formed and included a diverse mix of stakeholder representatives. The CRG was a conduit for information between the community and the Department and its consultants, and provided feedback on the project outcomes.

Reporting

8. School provision needs assessment report - following completion of the data analysis and consultation a Draft report was prepared for circulation to the CRG and Internal Steering Group.

9. Feedback from Community Reference Group and Internal Steering Group - included meeting with the CRG and Internal Steering Group and seek feedback on the Draft report).

10 stage one report for presentation to the Minister for Education (following feedback from the CRG and Internal Steering Group).

2. Determined the approach to understanding need including use and availability of data, and approach to community engagement.

3. Develop preliminary study areas for the purpose of undertaking current and future demographic analysis, identifying demand hotspots and gaps in provision.


Appendix B: Land use map

This map illustrates land uses within the study area.

24


Appendix C: Forecast population growth for secondary-school-aged children

Secondary-school-aged population change between 2011 and 2031 (real numbers)


Source: Spatial Vision, November 2015


Appendix D: SEIFA Index of Disadvantage

This map illustrates the SEIFA Index of Disadvantage in the study area.

26Source: Spatial Vision, November 2015


Appendix E: Total secondary school age demand

DRU Total secondary school age demand* Change (#) (2011–

31)

Change (%) (2011–

31)2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Charles La Trobe College 1,508 1,289 1,378 1,462 1,515 7 0.46Coburg High School 2,811 3,085 3,323 3,672 3,985 1,174 41.76John Fawkner Secondary College 2,014 1,856 1,793 1,807 1,850 -164 -8.14

Northcote High School 1,755 1,734 1,989 2,323 2,615 860 49.00Reservoir High School 2,064 2,135 2,172 2,313 2,407 343 16.62Thornbury High School 3,246 3,138 3,399 3,874 4,354 1,108 34.13William Ruthven Second-ary College 1,195 1,289 1,373 1,458 1,485 290 24.27

Total 14,593 14,526 15,427 16,909 18,211 3,618 24.79




Appendix F: Market share analysis

Several different approaches could have been undertaken to establish a market share value. One method would have considered the annual rate of change of the market share over the five years and applied that as a consistent rate of change in the market share to 2031. However, due to market share values differing greatly between different schools, for example, in the order of around an eight per cent decrease in market share annually, this figure would not yield practical results.

Government secondary school market share calculations

Government market share* Change (2011–15)

Change (%) (2011–

15)DRU 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Charles La Trobe College 37.8 39.3 39.5 40.6 40.5 2.7 7.1Coburg High School 45.1 42.4 41.8 41.1 41.7 -3.4 -7.5John Fawkner Secondary Col-lege 38.4 38.3 40.1 39.8 39.4 1.0 2.6

Northcote High School 55.0 58.1 63.4 65.1 68.9 13.9 25.3Reservoir High School 56.6 53.0 52.3 52.0 51.8 -4.8 -8.5Thornbury High School 42.2 41.1 41.0 44.4 43.8 1.6 3.8William Ruthven Secondary College 47.9 46.6 43.5 41.5 40.4 -7.5 -15.7

Total 46.1 45.5 45.9 46.4 46.6 0.5 1.1*Numbers are forecasts and approximate only


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Appendix G: Student address analysis

Secondary school student address analysis

Current government secondary school enrolments

Government secondary schoolCurrent enrol-ments (Febru-

ary 2015)

% of Enrol-ments within

school's DRU

Median dis-tance from school (km)

Charles La Trobe College 253 24.90 4.5Coburg High School 265 44.91 3.8John Fawkner Secondary College 358 55.59 10.5Northcote High School 1,651 45.46 3.4Reservoir High School 574 51.92 3.0Thornbury High School 1,181 35.68 6.8William Ruthven Secondary College 450 28.44 3.8Summary 4,732 41.81 4.9


DRU of residence versus school DRU matrix

Government secondary school

Demand Reporting Units (DRUs)

Out

side

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Se

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igh

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ol

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ir H

igh

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Se

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Charles La Trobe College 63 0 0 0 49 42 0 99 253

Coburg High School 1 119 21 2 10 7 12 93 265

John Fawkner Secondary College 1 12 199 1 0 2 1 142 358

Northcote High School 0 286 6 751 112 211 53 233 1,652

Reservoir High School 5 0 0 0 298 33 0 238 574

Thornbury High School 50 0 0 0 246 425 0 470 1,191

William Ruthven Secondary College 1 39 90 0 46 1 128 145 450

Total 121 456 316 754 761 721 194 1,420 4,743

Source: Source: DET, November 2015; Spatial Vision, November 2015



Appendix H: Enrolment demand analysis

Projected government secondary school enrolment capacity assessment

Government secondary schoolProjected enrolments

Existing capacity

Remaining capacity

2011 2016 2020 2011 2016 2020

Charles La Trobe College 253 538 663 600 347 62 -63

Coburg High School 265 390 990 900 635 510 -90

John Fawkner Secondary College 358 415 522 550 192 135 28

Northcote High School 1,651 1,695 2,120 1,700 49 5 -420

Reservoir High School 574 601 788 1,000 426 399 212

Thornbury High School 1,181 1,189 1,170 1,300 119 111 130

William Ruthven Secondary College 450 456 494 900 450 444 406Total 4,732 5,284 6,747 6,950 2,218 1,666 203


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Appendix I: Individual government secondary school reports

Charles La Trobe – individual school report


Note: Forecasts are approximate only


Coburg High School – individual school report

32



John Fawkner Secondary College – individual school report




Northcote High School – individual school report

34



Reservoir High School – individual school report




Thornbury High School – individual school report

36



William Ruthven Secondary College – individual school report




Appendix J: Specialist school demand calculations

Specialist school demand analysis for secondary-school-aged children

Preston secondary school study area

Forecast demand* Change (#) (2011–31)

Change (%) (2011–

31)2011 2016 2021 2026 2031Secondary-school-aged demand 14,593 14,526 15,427 16,909 18,211 3,618 24.79Secondary-school-aged population with disabilities 540 537 571 626 674 134 24.79

Government specialist school demand from 12-17 years 243 242 257 282 303 60 24.79

*Numbers are forecasts and approximate only


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