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Do you know what it takes to manage global change wisely?
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Transcript of Do you know what it takes to manage global change wisely?
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Do you know what it takes to manage
global change wisely?
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?!
EARTH System
Analysis
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Why do we need Earth System Analysis ?!
[…] there is no previous analogue for the current operation of the Earth System […]
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Modus Operandi
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terrestrial ecosystems
marine ecosystems
human dimensions
atmosphere
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terrestrial ecosystems
marine ecosystems
human dimensions
atmosphere
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terrestrial ecosystems
marine ecosystems
human dimensions
atmosphere
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terrestrial ecosystems
marine ecosystems
human dimensions
atmosphere
Do we know how good old earth is working now?
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E S ATo complex for a single mind, a single
discipline, a single nation, a single interest.
Thus…
…inter-disciplinary
…inter-nationational
…inter-objective (balance of interests)
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ESA ESM
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Limits to Growth – WORLD3• World3 – complex but basically simple
• Causal relationships between the earth‘s biological systems and human (economic) development
• It‘s all about the development of stocks, such as…
…human population…industrial capital…environmental pollution…natural resources
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WORLD3 is not about absolute figures…
…it‘s about trends, causal relationships, feedback loops
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World3 assumes…
…unlimited Growth of…
…population
…capital
until the physical limit is reached
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World3 Central question:
What happens now?!
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Population growth 1
time
Earth‘s ecological capacity
world population
sour
ce:
limits
to
grow
th –
30y
upd
ate
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Population growth 2
Earth‘s ecological capacity
world population
time sour
ce:
limits
to
grow
th –
30y
upd
ate
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Population growth 3
Earth‘s ecological capacity
world population
time
we are here
sour
ce:
limits
to
grow
th –
30y
upd
ate
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Population growth 4
Earth‘s ecological capacity
world population
time
we are here
sour
ce:
limits
to
grow
th –
30y
upd
ate
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source: limits to growth – 30y update
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Safe landing
?!
source: limits to growth – 30y update
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Has anything changed (because of WORLD3) ?!
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source: http://www.igbp.net/page.php?pid=184
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IGBP Objective
• To describe and understand Earth System dynamics
• focusing on the interactive biological, chemical and physical processes
• the changes that are occurring in these dynamics
• and the role of human activities in these changes
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IGBP II Structure
sour
ce:
http
://w
ww
.igbp
.net
/pag
e.ph
p?pi
d=18
4
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Earth System Science Partnership
Health
START
source: http://www.igbp.net/page.php?pid=184
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sour
ce:
http
://w
ww
.igbp
.net
/pag
e.ph
p?pi
d=18
4
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Integrated Regional Studies
•assess the influence of regional processes on Earth System functioning (and vice-versa)
•be integrative (natural and social sciences, all components of the Earth System, planning to synthesis)
•contribute sound scientific understanding in support of sustainable development in the region
•be scientifically-driven by scientists in the region, with global collaboration
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Large Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA)
•80 research groups - 600 scientists
•How does Amazonia function as a regional entity (e.g., natural cycles of water, energy, aerosols, carbon, nutrient and trace-gases)?
•How will changes in land use and climate affect the biological, chemical and physical functioning of Amazonia, including its sustainability and influence on global climate?
source: http://www.igbp.net/page.php?pid=184
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Take home message
Earth system analyses/models show trends, not figures.
ESA can be used as an early warning system
ESM should be used as a political tool to design rough national and international strategies for decades to come
IRS should be used a regional planning tool for sustainable development wherever available
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For more information on ESA, ESM and global change research, visit:
http://www.igbp.net
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Comments for Lars Schmidt from Manfred Stock
1. To be finished .....