DNV GL © 2014 Ungraded 01 September 2015 SAFER, SMARTER, GREENER DNV GL © 2014 01 September 2015...
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Transcript of DNV GL © 2014 Ungraded 01 September 2015 SAFER, SMARTER, GREENER DNV GL © 2014 01 September 2015...
DNV GL © 2014
Ungraded
01 September 2015 SAFER, SMARTER, GREENER1 DNV GL © 2014
01 September 2015Jakub Walenkiewicz
MARITIME
Market Update – Time to redesign our models?
INCENTRA Council Meeting - Haugesund
DNV GL © 2014
Ungraded
01 September 20152
JM Keynes – AGGREGATED DEMAND
Boost the economy
Increase spending
CREATE additional demand! (called aggregated demand)
USE public sector if the private one is insufficient
John Maynard Keynes
British economist
1883-1946
DNV GL © 2014
Ungraded
01 September 20153
Contracting vs earnings
DNV GL © 2014
Ungraded
01 September 20154
Demand vs Supply
Seaborne trade growth has been satisfactory, with annual growth 3-4%
Sizable drop in world trade in 2009 is casually neglected
Yet the fleet growth is notoriously faster then demand
There seems to always be a reason to contract a new ship
6-8%
3-4%
5-6%
DNV GL © 2014
Ungraded
01 September 20155
Reasons for contracting
Renewal
Purpose built (for complex projects)
Trading areas – ECA
Cargo demand (very specific segments only)
Counter cyclical orders
Capital availability (PE)
Increased efficiency and/or competitiveness
Incentive schemes (i.e. China)
Limited capacity in yards?
“Last one in the queue” syndrome
Stakeholders pressure
“my ship will be ready by the time the market has recovered”
currency exchange
killer offers from yards (and financiers)
Reasonable Speculative/political Insane
DNV GL © 2014
Ungraded
01 September 20156
Contracting 2015 1H
Av. 3
50/m
onth
Av. 250/m
onth
Av. 150/m
onth???
Continued slow-down in the NB market
Substantially lower volume of contracts– 1H 2015 over 50% below 1H 2014
South Korea - 38% share (GT) :
– crude, container, products, gas
China – 27% share (GT):
– crude, bulk, containers, gas
Japanese - 25% share (GT):
– bulk, containers, crude, products, gas
DNV GL © 2014
Ungraded
01 September 20157
“doing the same thing over and over again, each time expecting different results”
INSANITY
DNV GL © 2014
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01 September 20158
New contracts activity
Obvious slow down y-o-y
Biggest correction in bulk and offshore segments
Despite fewer vessels ordered, the tanker segment remains strong
Container market stronger!
Still positive sentiment in the gas sector despite large orderbook
So far 1050 contracts (41.9 mill. GT)
DNV GL © 2014
Ungraded
01 September 20159
World Seaborne Trade
Seaborne trade in 2014 reached 10.537 billion tonnes
Expected growth in 2015 – 10.959 billion tonnes (UP 4.1%)
Iron Ore + 6.4%
Coal + 2.3%
Crude Oil + 1.4%
Oil Products + 3.4%
Containers + 7.1%
Gas & Chem + 5.1%
DNV GL © 2014
Ungraded
01 September 201510
Orderbook composition
Ship Type Number of vessels Share (%) DWT Share (%)Bulker 1624 24,7 % 133963997 46,0 %Tanker 1027 15,6 % 78851704 27,1 %Container 445 6,8 % 40511835 13,9 %LNG Carrier 159 2,4 % 12354974 4,2 %Offshore 1317 20,0 % 10806838 3,7 %LPG Carrier 220 3,3 % 6934009 2,4 %Dry Cargo 337 5,1 % 4445869 1,5 %Roro 128 1,9 % 1513708 0,5 %Miscellaneous 1134 17,2 % 1136413 0,4 %Pass./Ferry 175 2,7 % 484395 0,2 %Reefer 9 0,1 % 68060 0,0 %
0,0 % 0,0 %Grand Total 6575 100,0 % 291071802 100,0 %
Orderbook acc. by ship type as of 2015.06.01Operator Country Number of vessels Share (%) DWT Share (%)
Greece 397 6,0% 41 309 879 14,2%Singapore 599 9,1% 27 991 740 9,6%China 456 6,9% 23 742 634 8,2%Japan 366 5,6% 18 497 906 6,4%Norway 254 3,9% 12 968 913 4,5%Hong Kong 209 3,2% 10 948 166 3,8%Bermuda 133 2,0% 10 848 428 3,7%Germany 202 3,1% 10 765 474 3,7%Chinese Taipei (Taiwan) 84 1,3% 9 783 895 3,4%Korea (South) 116 1,8% 9 637 972 3,3%Monaco 128 1,9% 9 460 264 3,3%Others 3631 55,2% 105 116 531 36,1%Grand Total 6575 100,0% 291 071 802 100,0%
Orderbook acc. by country of domicile operator as of 2015.06.01Builder Country Number of vessels Share (%) DWT Share (%)
China 2576 39,2% 124 570 167 42,8%Korea (South) 870 13,2% 85 666 353 29,4%Japan 954 14,5% 53 959 996 18,5%Philippines 102 1,6% 8 742 504 3,0%Brazil 161 2,4% 5 607 710 1,9%Romania 74 1,1% 3 263 884 1,1%Vietnam 212 3,2% 2 220 439 0,8%Chinese Taipei (Taiwan) 36 0,5% 1 531 281 0,5%United States of America 131 2,0% 1 291 256 0,4%Croatia 33 0,5% 552 867 0,2%Singapore 84 1,3% 414 318 0,1%Others 1342 20,4% 3 251 027 1,1%Grand Total 6575 100,0% 291 071 802 100,0%
Orderbook acc. by country of domicile builder as of 2015.06.01
DNV GL © 2014
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01 September 201511
2009 vs 2015?
DNV GL © 2014
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01 September 201512
2015 World Economy – 4 drivers
1. Uneven global growth World – 3.5%
advanced world - 2.4%
developing world - 4.3%
2. Weak banks and high debt public, household, corporate, bank debt
interest rates low
relaxed fiscal policy
3. Low oil prices always good news for oil importers
oil exporters will survive
4. Strengthening of the US dollar substantial help for importing countries
stimulates exporters outside US dollar
Developed economies
World average
Emerging economies
2.1%
4.2%
3.3%
…..and
other
commoditie
s!!!!
DNV GL © 2014
Ungraded
01 September 201513
Commodities
$ 40-ish
$ 55-ish
$ 60-ish
DNV GL © 2014
Ungraded
01 September 201514
Drivers
DNV GL © 2014
Ungraded
01 September 201515
Drivers
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01 September 201516
Weather chart
CRUDE OIL PRODUCTS LNG LPG
BULKERS CONTAINERS OFFSHORE
DNV GL © 2014
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01 September 201517
Contracting
Forecast
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Ungraded
01 September 201518
Conclusions
Our models gradually stop working
Read between the lines as supply/demand changes directions and forms
Excess of capacity!
Reduction in the NB activity, shipyards squeezed, orderbook on a downhill trend
…but there are many reasons to order new ships, particularly is there is money to be spent
Don’t expect the supply/demand calculations to provide you with the accurate number of new contracts
DNV GL © 2014
Ungraded
01 September 201519
SAFER, SMARTER, GREENER
www.dnvgl.com
Thank You
Jakub [email protected]