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Transcript of Division in Dairyland
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Acknowledgements....iiiList of Tables..iv
List of Figures..vAbstract...vi
Chapter
1 Theoretical framework for understanding newsframes during the Wisconsin gubernatorial recall...1
Literature review..........5Hypotheses and research questions....31
2 Methods..35
3 Results....47Hypotheses and research question outcomes.66
4 Discussion..67Conclusion.80
References......83
Appendix
A Map of Wisconsin counties and county seats........89B Map of Wisconsin recall election outcomes......90C Coding Instrument.....91D Codebook...........94E Inventory of sample newspapers and number of articles collected...98F Inventory of coded articles by type..100
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
I would like to thank my advisor, Professor Doug McLeod, for all of his guidance
throughout this project. I would also like to thank to Professor Al Gunther and Professor
Sue Robinson for serving as my committee members, as well as Courtney Hoffmann,
who was invaluable during the coding process. Finally, I want to give a special thank you
to Matthew Barnidge for offering advice and moral support every step of the way.
Without him, I would probably still be lost on a county highway somewhere near
Manitowoc, searching for the public library.
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LIST OF TABLES
1: Descriptive statistics for independent variables.40
2:Correlation matrix between pluralism indicators...42
3: Overview of article frames........45
4: Overview of article characteristics....46
5: Frequencies and percent of sample for each article subject,endorsement, slant and type...50
6: Correlations between article type and averages of frame per county....51
7: Correlations between article subject and averages of frames per county......52
8: Correlations between article endorsement and averages of frames per county.53
9: Correlations between article slant and averages of frames per county......53
10: Correlations between article tone and averages of frames per county....54
11: Multivariate linear regression results for county-level frame averages...57
12: Multivariate logistic regression results for article-level frame presences...59
13: Linear regression results for indicators related to article subject ...61
14: Linear regression results for indicators related to article endorsement...61
15: Linear regression results for indicators related to article slant....60
16: Linear regression results for indicators related to article type.....62
17: Multivariate regression results for recall outcome......64
18: Simple regression results for pluralism indicators on voting outcome65
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ABSTRACT
This project examines coverage of the 2012 Wisconsin gubernatorial recall
election in 72 state newspapers. A content analysis was performed to look for
relationships between various community characteristics, coverage frames and article
characteristics. Specifically, frames related to conflict, economics, social discord,
political process and political policy were examined, as were characteristics including
article type, tone, subject, slant and endorsement. These relationships were interpreted via
theories related to structural pluralism and were connected to concepts from geographic-
and class-based social identity literatures. Ultimately, this project found indicators in
news coverage for community tendencies related to conflict avoidance and tolerance.
Broadly, less pluralistic communities were more preoccupied with the social impact and
divisiveness of the recall election than were more pluralistic communities.
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CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION
A week before the 2012 Wisconsin gubernatorial recall election, a woman in
Portage, Wisconsin, watched as her Recall Walker sign was stolen from her yard. She
wrote to her local paper about the incident, commenting: I wondered why the person
didnt just ask if they could have the sign for their yardI would have gladly given it to
them (Kutzke, 2012). Such a lighthearted response, however, belied the underlying
tension developing between neighbors not only in Portage that spring but also in
communities across Wisconsin during the run-up to the historic and deeply contentious
gubernatorial recall election.
The recall election made national news, and pundits on both sides of the partisan
aisle described the Wisconsin story as having political significance well beyond the
dairy state (Robinson, Knisely & Schwartz, 2012). For example, some media treated the
recall election as a bellwether for how the battleground state would vote in the looming
presidential electiona prediction that ultimately did not hold up. However, there are
other ways in which the Wisconsin case is useful for broader political discourse. The case
involved various dimensions of tension, including rural-versus-urban dwellers,
government workers-versus-private sector workers, haves versus have-nots, as well
as more predictable frames, such as liberal-versus-conservative or Republican-versus-
Democrat.
Its clear that some of these conflicts were more dominant than others in different
communities, and the fundamental question of this project is whether the frames used in
particular communities were related to the demographic, structural and geographic
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features of those communities. This study asks whether it is possible to tease out which
community characteristics were most likely to predict these frames and whether frames
were related to voting outcomes. If so, such work could serve to highlight how even
subtle variations among communities within a single state can ultimately impact political
outcomes.
Before considering these questions, however, its worth reviewing the context in
which the Wisconsin recall took place.In February 2011, Governor Scott Walker
introduced Act 10, which was intended to close a budget deficit by cutting pensions and
other benefits for public workers, as well as curtail the collective bargaining powers of
public employee unions. The bills introduction and Republican attempts for a hasty
passage sparked a significant public backlash that included a steady stream of protests at
the state Capitol. The protests escalated through February and into March, and various
national political and cultural figures came to Madison to show support for union
workers, including filmmaker Michael Moore and the Rev. Jesse Jackson.
As the protests continued, the political atmosphere in Wisconsin became
increasingly polarized. Fourteen Democratic state senators fled the state for more than 20
days in an attempt to prevent the quorum necessary for a vote. Act 10, also known the
budget repair bill or the collective bargaining bill, was passed on March 10, but the
passage of the bill did not bring the opposition to an end. When the 14 senators returned
to Madison on March 12, the protests swelled to more than 100,000 people.
The political fall-out, as well as the protests, continued for months. Nine state
senators, including six Republicans and three Democrats, faced recall elections that
summer, and the re-election campaign of a conservative-leaning state Supreme Court
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justice became uncharacteristically contentious. The ultimate legacy of the Wisconsin
protests, though, was the spurring of a recall initiative against Walker. More than
900,000 signatures were collected to trigger the recall process. Former Milwaukee Mayor
Tom Barrett won a difficult Democratic primary May 7, 2012, to run against Walker in
the general recall, which was held June 5, 2012. Barrett previously ran for governor
against Walker in 2010, so the recall election essentially became a rematch.
The historic nature of the recall election was a frequent topic of coverage
throughout the process. Nationally, only two state governors have ever been recalled, and
no attempt to recall a governor had ever been made previously in Wisconsin. Ultimately,
Walker became the first U.S. governor to survive a recall election, winning 53% to
Barretts 46%. Almost 60% of Wisconsin voters participated in the recall election, which
was the highest turnout ever in the state for a gubernatorial election not tied to a
presidential ballot. News media characterized the result of the election in various ways,
attributing Walkers win to a lackluster performance by Barrett after a damaging primary,
a public validation of Walkers policies, or a process vote where citizens voted against
the recall elections rather than for Walker.
Newspapers across the state covered the sharp partisan tone throughout the protest
season and recall election. Stories of political sign vandalism were not uncommon, and
public debate in the form of letters to the editor, newspaper comment forums and social
media erupted. Walker was booed at public events unrelated to the campaign. Public
school teachers were called communists or whiners in public forums (Robinson, Knisely
& Schwartz, 2012).
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While the contentiousness of the recall in general is not in doubt, different
communities talked about the election in different ways and appeared to vary in terms of
conflict avoidance and tolerance. Certain coverage frames appeared to have more
salience than others in particular contexts, and this project will investigate those
differences, as well as explore ways to predict which Wisconsin communities relied on
which discourse frames during the recall election. Understanding relationships between
various community features and local media coverage frames could help partially explain
how community residents were persuaded to vote for one candidate or another and
whether residents developed a broad community consensus around a particular candidate
or not. Why, for example were certain places in Wisconsin, such as Columbia County
and Eau Claire County, so split in terms of recall election results? Why were other
counties, such as Dane, Menominee or Waukesha, so decisive or one-sided in their
results? This project will look for clues to help start answering these questions.
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LITERATURE REVIEW
Overview
Before considering how public opinion was expressed during the recall election,
its necessary to step back and consider how various individual identities can affect
political ideology and how those individual identities can aggregate into collective
identities with predictable political behaviors. A useful body of literature for beginning to
understand how structural elements translate to human perceptions and behaviors comes
from social identity theorists. The specific social identities relevant for this case study are
geographic- and economic-based identities. Place is political, and where one lives can
strongly shape ones ideology and worldviewand this is especially the case in rural
contexts. Some place-based identities, however, cannot be separated from their economic
contexts. Income, occupation and lifestyle are all various dimensions for classifying
class-based identities, and the media can often help to reinforce those identities in various
ways. Both geographic- and class-based identities can to some extent predict individual
voting behaviors and help rationalize voting decisions that at first glance may not make
sense to outsiders.
From there, the discussion of geographic- and economic-based identities can scale
up to the community level. Structural pluralism theories can help explain how various
communities respond to conflict, and certain structural patterns can predict whether a
community will avoid or tolerate conflict. The contextual effects literature intersects well
with structural pluralism to explain how elements of personal identity can translate to
voting behaviors at the neighborhood or community level.
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Local newspapers offer a unique lens into how various social identities came into
play in communities across Wisconsin during the recall. A particularly valuable element
of these newspapers is the letters to the editor section. While newspaper editors and
community members sometimes ridicule letters to the editor, researchers have found that
letters can provide a meaningful glimpse into community public opinion. A theoretical
justification exists for continuing to evaluate printed local newspapersand specifically
letters to the editoreven in an era of media consolidation and digitization. Finally,
framing literature provides a scaffold for analyzing local newspaper coverage, and frames
developed for this case study are well rooted in previous work.
Social identities and political ideology: Geography, class and occupation
Social identity is the part of an individuals identity that is provided via
membership in one or more groups and is influenced by the norms of that group (Huddy,
2001; Monroe et al., 2000; Turner et al., 1983). Essentially, social identity theory and
self-categorization theory, the offshoot of social identity theory, consider group affiliation
as a source of and reinforcing force for individual identity (Karasawa, 1991; Monroe et
al., 2000). Social identity theorists tend to focus on the motivations for people to
differentiate groups and have found that an individuals self-esteem can be tied to
perceptions of their in-group, whereas self-categorization theory looks more at how
individuals come to identify and act with a group (Huddy, 2001; Monroe et al., 2000).
These theories consider how individuals identify with other in-group members
and simultaneously do not identify with or even discriminate against out-group
members. Experiments have found that individuals will favor their in-group over an out-
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group under the most minimal constraints (Perreault & Bourhis, 1999; Karasawa, 1991;
Turner et al., 1984). Interestingly for this study, political scientists have found that
identification with particular social groups is related to political thought and behaviors
(Wash, Jennings & Stoker 2004; Campbell et al., 1960).
While we must acknowledge that people can and do find the most minimal basis
for division, in politics some characteristics typically arise that are more important than
others (Oliver, 2001, p. 84). One of those characteristics is the geography of ones
community, which contributes not only to the physical borders of that community but
also to the borders of its residential social in-group. For example, a New Yorker lives
in New York, not Dallas. Community features, such as population size, income, political
voting history, occupations and other variables, come together to form particular
geographic identities, which can then become political ones. In order to begin
constructing a sense what makes up these political places and why they behave in certain
ways, its worth considering how broader geographic-based identities, such as rural or
suburban identities, can intersect with other identity elements, such as socioeconomic
status and occupation.
Geographic-based social identities and political ideology
According to Gotham, Like race, class, and gender, places can become important
mechanisms through which collective identity is defined and expressed (1999, p. 333).
For example, scholars interested in rural culture have found that many rural residents
have developed an identity based in part on their geographic residence and distance from
broader power institutions. Poor, rural white residents who vote for conservative
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candidates sometimes are doing so in consistency with a worldview that favors hard
work, individuality and limited government in general. This identity is sometimes termed
redneck culture (Jarosz & Lawson, 2002), and while such an identity can have negative
connotations, especially for younger rural residents (Vanderbeck & Dunkley, 2003),
rural-based self-identity also can become a guiding perspective for political decisions
(Cramer Walsh, 2012).
While conducting various case studies of political talk in Wisconsin communities,
Cramer Walsh developed the term rural consciousness for this awareness of ones
literal place in the political world. She identified various ideas associated with this
consciousness, including a consistent lack of trust in the government, as well as feelings
of political alienation, including a lack of support or attention from the broader political
system in general (Cramer Walsh, 2012). Throughout her fieldwork, Cramer Walsh
consistently heard rural residents construct their identity in juxtaposition to urban
dwellers:
It was common for the people I studied to refer to state government with theshorthand Madison. And it was very common for people in rural areas to boldlystate outright disdain of this city, the state capital (Cramer Walsh, 2011, p. 151).
Similarly, Gimpel and Karnes found that red versus blue election maps are
really displaying urban/rural divides within states: Although on their own, the nation's
tiniest burgs do not amount to much, collectively they do cast enough votes to anchor the
Electoral College to the Republican candidate in many states (Gimpel & Karnes, 2006,
p. 467). Gelman and his colleagues are consistent with this, arguing that geography
definitely matters politically. Though red state/blue state divisions are easy media
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heuristics, most states are more geographically divided than they seem thanks to the
persistence of real, significant regional differences (Gelman et al., 2007, p. 365).
One of these differences is the perception of equity in terms of government
spending. Though per capita, rural residents receive an equivalent share of government
dollars, in general a perception persists among rural residents that resource distribution is
skewed toward urban areas (Cramer Walsh, 2012; Gelman et al., 2007). Whether rural
residents receive their fair share or not, the ideology that they are on their own is
important. Though rural counties generally have lower median incomes and higher rates
of poverty and unemployment than in neighboring counties with higher populations,
many rural residents relate to the self-image of independent entrepreneur and property
owner, either by nature of agricultural employment or the legacy of home ownership in
rural areas (Gimpel & Karnes, 2006, p. 471). The rednecks interviewed in Jarosz and
Lawsons ethnography of white rural poverty identified themselves as honest,
hardworking and resilient, among other traits (2002), which again reinforce an
individualistic, I-earn-my-own-way mentality.
In contrast, the rural residents Cramer Walsh interviewed prior to the 2011
Wisconsin protestswhich triggered the recall electioncomplained that state
employees received exorbitant health care and pension benefits, despite not having to
work very hard. However, this rural sense of individualism was not limited to blue-
collar workers in Cramer Walshs interviews. She found that professionals in rural areas
still felt more marginalized within the broader state and federal government system than
did comparable professionals in suburban communities close to urban areas (Cramer
Walsh, 2011).
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In one sense, rural residents have much in common with their counterparts in
more affluent suburban communities. Similarly to rural contexts, suburban communities
are often isolated, with a racially and politically homogenous population (Oliver, 2001).
The difference is that in suburban contexts, such economic isolation is consciously
chosen by highly mobile individuals from the middle to upper-middle socioeconomic
classes. Though smaller communities typically foster stronger individual feelings of
political efficacy than do larger cities in general (Oliver, 2001, p. 65), suburbs are a
unique form of small community.
In particular, the economic homogeneity of suburban residents reduces overall
political conflict within these communities and also re-shapes the type of conflict that
persists. One of the effects of the process of segmenting suburbs from the larger urban
area via new municipal boundaries has been a transformation of conflict, and issues
that previously caused conflict among residents within a community are now conflicts
between local governments (Oliver, 2001, p. 5). Suburban and central city residents often
find themselves pitted against one another, as suburban residents are more likely to be
regional resource power holders and dont identify with inner city residents and their
needs (Logan & Molotch, 2007; Dreier, Mollenkopf & Swanstrom, 2001). Suburban
residents find themselves competing not with each other but with other communities in
order to protect things like municipal services and property values, which can foster an
ideology based on conscious isolationism, which is distinct from pragmatic rural
individualism.
Urban communities are highly complex, and this is where geographic-based
identities become perhaps less relevant than other social identities. Diverse groups live in
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urban areas, making it difficult to speculate about a common political ideology based
solely on ones status as a resident of a particular metropolis. This is a good opportunity
to shift the discussion to socioeconomic status-based identities, which often tie-in closely
with geographic-based identities to help form distinctive local worldviews.
Class-based social identities and political ideology
Much literature related to geographic and economic identities reference both
concepts in conjunction with each other. For example, Gelman and his colleagues
discussed geographic identity in the context of a book about relationships between
income and voting patterns (Gelman et al., 2007). Though Cramer Walsh ultimately
argued that geographic-based identities trump socioeconomic ones, class identities are
most certainly an undercurrent in her work as well. Class identity may not directly impact
voting behaviors (Manza, Hout & Brooks, 1995), but it can help individuals develop a
sense of their personal roles as democratic citizens (Walsh, Jennings & Stoker, 2004).
In general, the idea that class can, at the very least, gradually affect political
attitudes and behaviors over time by way of helping individuals establish opinions about
government dates back decades in political science (Eulau, 1956). LeMasters classic
ethnography of a Wisconsin tavern offers qualitative insights into the relationship
between class identity and political ideologies. The Club Tavern in Middleton,
Wisconsin, publicly claims to have served as the setting for LeMasters work, which
analyzed a community in the midst of shifting from a working-class stronghold to a
suburban refuge for white-collar professionals employed in Madison. Much dialogue
around local events took the form of us-versus-them in reference to the blue-collar
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residents who at times found themselves at odds with middle- and upper-class residents
over various community issues. LeMasters noted his surprise at the depth and extent of
the suspicion and distrust (1975, p. 199) demonstrated by the tavern patrons toward
white-collar workers overall.
Especially relevant for this study were the conversations LeMasters recorded
about tavern patrons views toward the University of Wisconsin-Madison campus
(referred to as the campus in nearby Metropolis) during the massive anti-Vietnam War
protests. Though the tavern patrons were, for the most part, personally opposed to the
war, as a group they also were resentful of the student protesters, who they perceived as
subversive and anti-authority in general. LeMasters even found that anti-protest
sentiments caused some patrons to shift to the right during the 1968 presidential election
(1975, p. 181).
While the Vietnam War era was a very different situation from the Wisconsin
gubernatorial recall, some parallels exist in terms of the discourse around the
appropriateness of protesting as a response to a controversial political situation. In
2012, many editorials and letters to the editor focused on whether the recall was
warranted or was simply a demonstration of liberal crybabies who didnt get their way.
Such perceptions are similar to LeMasters historical accounts of blue-collar complaints
about entitled students who failed to recognize their privileges (1975, p. 181).
One fundamental element of the blue-collar worldview that LeMasters identified
is acutely political: pragmatism, which sounds very similar to Cramer Walshs more
recent findings on perceptions related to the government in other Wisconsin
communities. For example:
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Williams, 2001), and politicians are especially cognizant of the importance in connecting
with the middle classeither by identifying themselves as part of the middle class or by
promising actions to benefit this class and look out for its interests (Kendall, 2011;
Gelman et al., 2007). Estimates find that at least half, if not slightly more, of all
Americans from a wide range of income levels self-identify as members of the middle
class (U.S. Department of Congress, 2010; Pew, 2012). Differentiating between working
class and middle class is problematic, as individuals with the same income and
education levels can self-identity as members of different classes (Walsh, Jennings &
Stoker, 2004, p. 472).
Yet as Wong argued, the limits of an imagined community have to be based
on something more tangible than sentiment alone (2010, p. 30). Some sort of attempt at
defining the middle class is necessary in order to discuss how this class designation can
affect political ideology. Income-based class designations are a common method for
delineating working class and middle class, though again, such designations are
problematic. Delineating between middle and working class becomes even more muddled
when lower middle class is inserted between the two strata. Lower-middle-class
identity is sometimes described as an undesirable non-identity (Felski, 2000) whose
members often simply self-identify as middle class. However, this project is not well
served by nitpicking income-based class designations, especially when the 2011 average
median income in Wisconsin was around $52,000almost spot on with the 2011 average
median income in the United States. While some academics classify a middle- class
household income at about $70,000 (Gilbert, 2008), representatives from a White House
middle class task force have stated that an income at around $50,000 is certainly going
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to be considered a middle-class income (Bernstein, 2009).
Many scholars argue that income is far from the only way to differentiate the
middle class. Lifestyle choices are another popular form of demarcating middle-class
members (Gelman et al., 2007). Kendall considers some college education, significant
skills and occupations with loose supervision as markers of a middle-class existence
(Kendall, 2011, p. 170). Consistent with in-group/out-group literature, which finds
evidence for stronger in-group identities when a clear, distinct out-group is present
(Huddy, 2001), some researchers have found that middle-class identities are actually
constructed as an alternative to other class identities, namely the working class (Mantsios,
2003; Kendall, 2011). Media, of course, can come into play in terms of portraying and
reinforcing these distinctions, and this will be discussed later.
The difficulty of defining the middle class extends to the difficulty of identifying
markers of this classs political ideology. One political characteristic of the middle class
that distinguishes its members from the working class is a higher level of political
participation overall (Walsh, Jennings & Stoker, 2004; Eulau, 1956). Beyond this, the
middle class becomes fundamentally political when it is considered as the petty
bourgeoisie situated between the proletariat and the more traditional bourgeoisie (Burris,
1999). By nature of being situated between these two class strata, this class inherently
forms a rough ideological unity characterized by competitive individualism, reformism
and a belief in the neutrality of the state as an arbiter of competing class interests
(Burris, 1999, p. 312). Similarly, if the middle class is conceptualized as the American
class norm, then it seems fair to superimpose general American democratic values onto
that normative class. Some of these broad values include concepts like consent,
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vote Democratic, though perhaps not to a large degree.
Ultimately, though, class identities cannot be superimposed onto subjects, even
when income levels are known. Class identities are subjective and perceptual and the
impact of such identities on political behavior is difficult to tease out. As Gimpel and
Karnes have found, Actual monetary income plays a relatively small role in economic
evaluations compared to self-perceived economic status (2006, p. 469).
Media portrayals of class and certain occupations
Media depictions of various class groups can help reinforce in-group desirability
and out-group undesirability (Mantsios, 2003). Class- and occupation-based identities are
especially salient in the media and political messaging and, again, are often interweaved
with coverage of geographic political variation. For example, red-versus-blue voting
maps often highlight regional variation, and often imply economic-related voting
variation in addition. However, not all classes are covered equally. The media are often
criticized for covering poverty-related issues differently and less frequently than issues
related to upper- and middle-class people (Kendall, 2011, p. 119). Those living in poverty
also are framed as deviant from the middle-class norm, and poor people are often
portrayed in the media according to various stereotypes, such as the welfare queen,
criminal, drug-user or dysfunctional parent/partner, among others (Bullock, Wyche &
Williams, 2001).
The middle class dominates class-related discourse in the media, which is
unsurprising as, again, almost the majority of Americans self-identity as members of the
middle class. Mantsios has found that middle-class Americans are depicted as different
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from working class people in a variety of ways, including manners and values (2003).
Kendall has identified three prevalent media frames related the middle class: middle-class
values are the backbone of the country, middle-class Americans are experiencing a
squeeze, and middle-class Americans are victimized by both the upper and working
class (2011).
One of these backbone middle-class values is hardworking. Occupational
identity was a noteworthy component of the discourse surrounding the Wisconsin
protests and subsequent recall election. Teachers in particular were frequent characters in
coverage of the protests, as their pensions and bargaining rights (along with the pensions
and bargaining rights of all other public sector employees except police officers and
firefighters) were the main targets of Act 10. Throughout 2011 and 2012, teachers were
often discussed in tandem with public sector workers or public union employees.
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 13.3% of wage and salary workers in
Wisconsin belonged to any labor union in 2011. Nationally, public sector unions have the
highest union membership rate at 37%, which is more than five times higher than the rate
of private-sector workers who belong to a union. Also, workers in education, training and
libraries had the highest level of occupational union membership. Consistent with these
trends, then, it would be expected that references to teachers, public sector workers and
other union members would be used interchangeably, and it is also likely that if a
Wisconsinite encounters a union member in daily life, that member probably belongs to a
public sector union.
According to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and U.S. Census data, in
communities where average median incomes are well below the Wisconsin average,
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government employees often make wages that are higher than their neighbors. Couple
this with the tendency for residents in rural communities to adopt an individualistic
ideology that discourages government hand-outs, and its possible that occupational
identities and perceptions of those occupations could make up a significant portion of
conflict discourse during the recall in some newspapers, especially those in rural contexts
or communities with high rates of poverty and unemployment.
Most research about media portrayals of public school teachers addresses film and
fictional television series depictions (Beyerbach, 2005; Raimo, Devlin-Scherer &
Zinicola, 2002). According to Swetnam, teacher portrayals are often stereotypical, such
as the autocrat, jerk or clown teacher. Even positive portrayals are unrealistic and
rely on depictions of heroic, superhuman teachers who serve essentially as social workers
for their students. Some scholars argue such fictional stereotypes could impact public
perceptions of teachers and education systems as a whole, which could translate to
decreased public support (Swetnam, 1992, p. 30). Studies on the impact of teacher
portrayals in news media are sparse, but Cohen found that similarly to fictionalized
representations, professional identity depictions might function as a link between what
happens in the black boxes of schools and wider policy debates about education. Talk
about teachers, therefore, is likely to be especially effective for mobilizing public opinion
about education (Cohen, 2010, p. 106). Cohen found that during the large-scale policy
reforms of No Child Left Behind, one daily Chicago newspaper often associated
schoolsand by extension teacherswith terms like failure and missed the mark
and accountability. Conversely, though, teachers also were associated with terms like
caring, as illustrated through anecdotes and examples of teachers going to
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extraordinary lengths for their students (Cohen, 2010). Such contradictions in media
portrayals of teachers turn them into a blank slate of sorts for public opinion.
Anecdotally, teachers may be beloved, but institutionally, they are a target for blame and
suspicion.
The public reputation of labor unions and union workers also is affected by media
portrayals. Labor unions typically become newsworthy during strikes, which offer the
sensational and dramatic appeal of a direct confrontation or serve as indicators of
broader poor economic conditions in a particular region (Flynn, 2000, p. 140). Various
studies have highlighted the potential effects of media coverage on unions. Firstly, media
coverage can affect the collective bargaining process itself, as Flynn has found evidence
that increased media attention can increase the duration of strikes (2000). Some studies
have found that most media coverage related to labor unions focuses on strikes at the
expense of other union activities and that media sometimes exaggerate the frequency of
strikes, which has a negative influence on public opinion of labor unions (Schmidt,
1993). Some have gone so far as to partially attribute declines in union membership
levels to the bad news bias in labor union coverage (Erickson & Mitchell, 1996).
In an era of declining membership, Puettes claim that the public is learning more
about union activities from news and fictional media coverage and less from direct
experience as union members or contact with union members certainly seems plausible
(1992). Schmidt made a similar point in her discussion of how public opinion toward
interest groups, including unions, is mostly formed by media coverage of those groups
(1993, p. 152). Media-influenced negative opinions about labor unions date back at least
35 years, as LeMasters heard complaints about union leaders in the Middleton tavern:
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There is no idealism left in the trade union movement for these men. They haveread too many news stories about dishonest union officials to place any great faithin their union leaders. Its a goddamn racket, like any other racket, one man ofhis union (LeMasters, 1975, p. 184).
From individuals to communities: The impact of geographic and economic contexts on
political engagement
Though debate exists about whether homogenous political environments and
social networks foster or inhibit political engagement (Campbell, 2006; Mutz, 2002), a
growing body of research is finding that economic, racial and cultural diversity within a
community contributes to more robust political engagement overall (Gimpel, Lay &
Schuknect, 2003; Oliver, 2001; Burbank, 1997). In these communities different groups
clash more regularly over issues like public spending, so political conflict becomes more
frequent and by extension, so does political involvement (Oliver, 2001, p. 93). The
increased frequency of political conflict in larger (more pluralistic) communities is
consistent with the theory of structural pluralism, which has found that conflict tolerance
is higher in communities where conflict is more frequent (Tichenor, Donohue & Olien,
1980). In this sense, then, geographic and economic identities, along with racial and
cultural ones, mesh to form political behaviors and ideologies within particular local
contexts, based in strong part on the structural elements of those contexts.
Structural pluralism is defined, essentially, as a multiplicity of power centers
serving diverse interest groups (Nah & Armstrong, 2006; Donohue, Olien & Tichenor
1985b). Pluralistic communities are complex, grow rapidly and demonstrate a diversity of
specialized interests and institutions (Olien, Tichenor, Donohue, Sandstrom & McLeod,
1990). Structural pluralists pay special attention to economic and power structures within
a community, and a degree of pluralism measures the level of differentiation in a social
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system among institutional and specialized interest groups in a way that determines
potential sources of organized social power within a community (Tichenor, Donohue &
Olien, 1980).
Researchers at the University of Minnesota developed the theory of structural
pluralism in the 1970s and 80s to explain how structural elements could predict media a
host of media-related factors, including the attitudes and performance of journalists, the
content of news coverage, and audience responses to media messages. Structural
pluralists found that newspapers mirror the society, as local media were likely to mirror
the conditions of various societal contexts, including power conditions and alignments
(Tichenor, Donohue & Olien, 1980). This emphasis on the effect of community
characteristics on local media, rather than the local media's effect on society, is a key
contribution of this theory to the communications field (Nah & Armstrong, 2011). One of
the core hypotheses in this literature is that the less pluralistic the community, the more
likely citizens will be served by weekly newspapers and rely on television news. More
pluralistic communities are more likely to be served by daily newspapers, and residents
will be more likely to rely on those papers rather than television as sources of information
(Olien, Donohue & Tichenor, 1978). This includes conflict coverage, as small weekly
papers in less pluralistic communities are more likely to emphasize positive local events
rather than delve into contentious issues, which is more common in larger, more
pluralistic communities served by daily papers.
Newspapers in less pluralistic communities are more likely to attempt to find and
reinforce public consensus around an issue, as indicated by a series of case studies by
Tichenor's team on issues like regional planning and power lines in agriculture fields,
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Contextual effects result when the attributes of other people are politicallyrelevant, when those attributes create a bias in the information that peopleencounter, and when that information influences what people believe or how theyact (Burbank, 1997, p. 113).
More broadly, contextual effects work has found that elements of personal
identity and history can affect the likelihood of political participation, impressions of
efficacy and tolerance of others (Gimpel, Lay & Schuknecht, 2003). In particular,
neighborhoods with high voter turnout also demonstrate the highest level of political
knowledgeeven after controlling for individual partisanship (Gimpel & Lay, 2005).
Local media as a space for political engagement
Though media concentration continues to increase, most U.S. communities are
still served by some form of local media (Missouri School of Journalism, 2011) and
hyper-local news sites comprise a growing market for online journalism. In an era of
online forums and various social media outlets connected to media enterprises, one of the
oldest features of American newspapersthe letters to the editor sectionmay seem like
an anachronistic component of modern newspapers. Letter writers typically skew older
than non-writers in their communities (Hart, 2001), and it is not uncommon for
newspaper editors, and even broader community members, to characterize letter writers
as fringe members of society who dont or cant make meaningful contributions to public
discourse. For example, Wahl-Jorgensen found that editors at a San Francisco daily
newspaper considered letter writers to be insane or crazy:
The idiom of insanity is employed to poke fun of and distance the staff from theletter- writers by suggesting, in a variety of different ways, that they are insane.This is not to say that the editorial page staff truly believe that either letter-writersor citizens are generally insane. It is only to suggest that the staffs discussion of
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public participation is limited to a certain register of meaning and that their viewof letter-writers, in turn, affects their view of the readership as a whole (Wahl-Jorgenson, 2002a, p. 189).
This perception of letter writers, however, is at odds with other studies in which
opinion editors characterize the role of the letters to the editor section as a public sphere
or democratic space for public debate and information sharing (Perrin & Vasey, 2008;
Feyer 2003; Feyer 2004). Additionally, though much of the focus in letters to the editor
studies is on how editors select letters, some studies also have considered how letters
actually can influence editors and newspaper writers (see Shoemaker and Mayfield,
1987). For example, Pritchard and Berkowitz found that the level of attention to crime in
letters to the editor predicted attention to crime in editorials and front-page news in
several large daily newspapers, and they interpreted these results as suggesting that letters
to the editor are more important for understanding newspaper coverage than previously
realized (Pritchard & Berkowitz, 1991, p. 394). This is consistent with broader
discussions of how perceptions of public opinion influences newspaper editors, who often
try to stay in step with their communitys leanings, via the cascade model (Entman,
2003a; Entman, 2003b). By maintaining a space for public discourse, letters to the editor
sections also can help tighten bonds between newspapers and readers (Wahl-Jorgensen,
2002a).
Many scholars continue to reinforce perceptions of letters to the editor as hazy
reflections of public opinion (Grey & Brown, 1970, p. 450), though issues of whether
letters are authentic or genuinely grassroots expressions of public opinion exist for
letters that are prepared by advocacy groups or copied and circulated to multiple papers
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by on individual during an election (Reader, 2008; Richardson & Franklin, 2004).
Regardless of whether all letters to the editor in a given newspaper serve as a truly
representative slice of public opinion in a communityespecially a larger, urban oneat
the very least the letters do serve as additional pieces of topic-specific coverage, which
simply by nature of being published in print versions of the newspaper are lent a certain
level of credibility and prominence. Letters also are typically published online in some
form with permanent URLs, which again gives them more prominence than a typical
comment left below a digital article. Even if editors privately deride a letter writers
views, they are providing the author with a public platform that can perhaps help inform
other readers on dimensions of the election that may or may not be represented in
traditional coverage. Additionally, perhaps contrary to perceptions of letters as an
outdated form of political engagement, some editors are finding that email makes it easier
for people to submit letters, thereby increasing the volume of letters received daily
(Raeymaeckers, 2005).
Several scholars characterize letters as part of a newspapers agenda setting or
gatekeeping function within a community. Medium- to large-size dailies are typically
more selective in terms of publishing submitted letters (Perrin, 2008; Hart, 2001; Wahl-
Jorgensen, 2002b). If larger papers serve as stronger gatekeepers or agenda setters in
terms of selecting letters for publication, then in a sense those letters almost become
another form of heavily editedand even biased (Perrin & Vaisey, 2008)newspaper
coverage. Wahl-Jorgensens studies on the selection of letters to the editor in urban
newspapers found that editors publish letters based on relevance, brevity, entertainment
and authority (2002b). Novelty is also a key element for some editors; the chance of a
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local significance in various ways, would be more hostile than other letters published at
that time. Additionally, many of the demographic variables Perrin and Vaisey identified
as predicting letter writing coverage also dont appear to fit the Wisconsin context. For
example, Perrin and Vaisey found that older writers and liberal-leaning writers are less
likely to write about local topics. Instead, they found that women were more likely than
men to write about local issues and also to adopt a more civil tone (Perrin & Vaisey,
2008). While the gender and age of letter writers will not be considered in this study, the
partisan leanings of letter writers will be addressed, and it is predicted that partisanship
will not significantly predict tone.
This study is a unique contribution to the discussion of the role of letters to the
editor in that it will consider letters in papers across multiple communities of many sizes.
This study also will not isolate letters but instead consider them as part of the holistic
body of coverage produced by the paper during the recall election. Letters to the editor in
smaller communities, then, offer a special lens into community discourse around local
and nonlocal events, and without the letters, it would be difficult to glean any insight into
the nature of the election frames used in smaller communities. For this reason, letters to
the editor are included in this studys sample and are in fact over-represented in the
sample thanks to the heavy volume of letters present in small papers. This will be
discussed more in the methods section.
Framing the Wisconsin recall in local media
Approaches to studying frames vary as widely as do explicit definitions of frames.
Tankard articulated the list of frames approach, which involves looking at the media
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content itself and providing coders with a list of indicators to identify a wide range of
frames per article. Specifically, he advises the development of a list of keywords,
catchphrases and symbols for detecting each frame (Tankard, 2001). Additionally,
Semetko and Valkenburg outlined inductive-versus-deductive approaches for frame
analyses. While inductive approaches can be labor intensive and difficult to replicate
(Semetko & Valkenburg, 2000), its a method that does lend itself well to small samples.
An inductive approach is especially appropriate for the Wisconsin case, as this project is
most interested in identifying case-specific frames rather than fitting the Wisconsin
content into frames previously identified in other studies. However, despite this case-
specific emphasis, the five frame categories developed for coding the Wisconsin sample
do track in various ways with previous studies, and trying to fit these frame categories
into existing frame theories illustrates the wide range and diversity of frame
conceptualizations.
The frame categories that will be used in this study include: conflict frames,
economic frames, social discord frames, political process frames and policy frames.
Specific topics that fall under these categories and mechanisms for identifying these
frames will be discussed more in depth in the methods section. Meta-analysis has found
that the omnipresent conflict frame (Van Gorp, 2010, p. 157) is the most frequently
reported generic frame (Matthes, 2009). The conflict frame highlights tension between
individuals, groups or institutions (Semetko & Valkenburg, 2000). The flexibility of this
frame likely contributes to its high frequency, and journalists often choose to identify and
highlight oppositional forces out of habit (Tankard, 2001; Smith, 1997). Economic
consequence frames are also in the top five frames reported by Matthes (2009). These
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frames articulate financial impacts for individuals, groups or countries. Similarly to
conflict frames, economic frames are fairly common in everyday news coverage
(Semetko & Valkenburg, 2000; Neuman et al. 1992).
Political process frames are conceptualized here as a variation of Entmans
procedural frames, which look at the techniques, successes and representativeness of
political actors (Entman, 2003b). Frames looking at particular events, such as elections,
poll results, debates or voting logistic changes, also lend themselves well to the episodic
dimension of Iyengars frame theory, which focuses on very recent events or occurrences
(Iyengar, 1991). Similarly, the policy-specific frames used in this project closely
resemble issue-specific frames (see Capella & Jamieson, 1997), which dominate the field
of frame studies. Matthes found that 78% of framing studies identified issue-specific
frames, compared to 22% reporting generic frames (2009). Some scholars even use the
word issue to define frames. For example, Gamson and Croteau define frames as a
storyline about an issue (1992), and Bennett termed frames as scenarios, (1978).
The social discord frame developed for this study is essentially a conflict frame
with a morality twist that is highly specific to the Wisconsin case in terms of the
particular language, metaphors and catchphrases it includes. According to Semetko and
Valkenburg, a morality frame situates an event or issue within a religious or moral
prescription and may offer a social solution for the issue (2000). In Wisconsin, again,
much discourse surrounded the divisiveness of the recall election and called for cultural
reunification in various ways. The perceived reality (Entman, 2003b) of a divided culture
inherently acknowledges some form of conflict frame but characterizes that conflict in
terms of its social consequences or human impact frames (Neuman et al., 1992), rather
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than simply identifying antagonistic forces. That additional moral dimension takes the
social discord frame category beyond a more straightforward conflict one.
HYPOTHESES AND RESEARCH QUESTIONS
This project is especially interested in how community features affect the frames
and characteristics of articles related to the Wisconsin recall. Structural pluralism is the
theory that most explicitly links community features to media characteristics, and various
relationships between pluralism indicators and the Wisconsin recall coverage will be
explored in this project. In keeping with structural pluralism, a series of hypotheses have
been developed. Key elements of the theory that have informed these hypotheses include
the trend for less pluralistic communities to demonstrate more conflict-avoidant
tendencies than more pluralistic communities. According to structural pluralism theories,
less pluralistic communities are less tolerant of conflict because conflict is typically more
harmful in communities with smaller, more rural populations tied together via personal
connections. Less pluralistic communities are expected to demonstrate coverage patterns
consistent with conflict avoidance Therefore:
H1a. Fewer conflict frames will be present as compared to more pluralistic
communities.
H1b. Similarly, less pluralistic communities will demonstrate a higher percentage
of process-oriented frames as compared to more pluralistic communities.
Though news coverage in less pluralistic communities often downplays or lacks
information about conflict at all, there are times when civic conflict is unavoidable. In
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those instances, a communitys level of tolerance with conflict is especially likely to be
on display in its local media. It is predicted that less pluralistic communities, which
overall are expected to be less conflict tolerant in general, will express discomfort via
news coverage preoccupied with the social impact of the conflict rather than the specific
conflict dimensions. Specifically, then:
H1c. Less pluralistic communities will have more social discord frames than more
pluralistic communities. For example, civil unrest, vandalism and other forms of public
hostility will make up a larger percentage of news coverage in these communitieseven
if those incidents are occurring at a comparable rate in metropolitan areas.
Consistent with class-based and occupation-based identity literatures, it is also
expected that occupations especially relevant to the recall debate will impact coverage.
The recall was a product of protests over legislation related to government workers, and
much media coverage focused on teachers and public union members. Additionally, the
rural perspective would predict that rural identity as marked by agricultural
employment could also affect political ideology and therefore the specific conflict frames
dominant in more rural communities. Therefore:
H2. Occupational indicators, specifically the percentage of government workers
and agricultural employment in each county, are expected to predict conflict frames as
well as policy frames.
Frames are the dependent variables most of interest for this study, but article
characteristics may also be explained by structural pluralism indicators. The predictions
related to conflict avoidance outlined in H1 may appear to support a hypothesis that
small-town papers would be more civil and less contentious overall than metro papers,
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since again, conflict is often downplayed in less pluralistic contexts. However, small-
town newspapers, which are more likely to be published weekly or twice weekly,
provided far fewer news articles overall as compared to larger, daily metropolitan
newspapers. Instead, much of the recall discourse in small-town papers came via letters
to the editor. Since small-town editors typically run a higher percentage of letters
received than do metropolitan editors, its expected that such letters will be a particularly
valuable lens into the nature of conflict discourse in various Wisconsin communities.
These letters are inherently more emotional in tone than news stories. Therefore:
H3. Letters to the editor will comprise a higher percentage of coverage in less
pluralistic communities, which by extension will cause a higher frequency of emotional
tone overall in these counties.
Finally, a series of research questions was developed in order to explore
relationships between other various community features and discourse frame patterns.
Communities are made up of individuals, so indicators related to various social identities
will be considered. Geographic and economic indicators are in many ways similar to
pluralism indicators, but in keeping with the concept of pluralism as a measure of power
center diversity, variables that contribute more directly to understanding a communitys
institutional make-up will be considered together as pluralism, whereas other variables
that are more case-specific will be looked at separately. It is expected that these research
questions will help provide additional nuance for understanding results related to the
hypotheses outlined above. The research questions include:
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R1. Does geographic location affect the specifics of community coverage of a
contentious political event, as would be predicted from geographic-based identity
literature? Specifically, does the distance to Madison affect frame patterns?
R2. Do particular news frames correlate with county partisan identity? Or, do
Republican- or Democratic-leaning communities use different frame categories?
R3. Consistent with theories about class identity and how income is related to
voting patterns, economic indicators are expected to predict voting outcomes. However,
can economic indicators also predict news frames? If so, what frames are related to
economic indicators?
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CHAPTER 2
METHODS
Unit of analysis
Counties are a useful unit of analysis for this project because they offer a
straightforward set of geographic boundaries and readily available U.S. Census data
exists at the county level. More conceptually, counties are big enough but not too big for
looking at regional differences within a state. A rural county located in the northernmost
portion of Wisconsin functions fairly differently from a more urbanized county near the
southern border with Illinois. However, it would be difficult to quantify northern-versus-
southern or western-versus-eastern Wisconsin cultures because no real borders exist
representing these dimensions. Counties are more measurable and are likely to form a
gradient of trends representative of their respective state regions anyway.
A snapshot of the similarities and differences among Wisconsins 72 counties in
terms of conflict tolerance can be found in the local papers of these communities. This
project attempted to collect Wisconsin recall coverage from every county seat newspaper.
Though many small town residents regularly read newspapers from larger communities,
the small-town papers are useful for looking at hyper-local conversations. The letters to
the editor and editorials in particular offer especially unique insights into public discourse
happening in small towns.
Sample collection
The original plan for this project was to rely on online archives in order to collect
all recall-related coverage between May 8 and June 6, 2012. Search terms used in the
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word recall even if neither candidate was specified by name. Articles that were only
about state senate recall races or only about the lieutenant gubernatorial recall were not
collected, but articles that referenced the gubernatorial recall in addition to one of these
other races were included.
Functional online newspaper archives and the Wisconsin Newspaper Digital
Resource Site yielded the majority of the collection. However, a handful of papers were
not available via either approach. Specifically, newspapers owned by the Gannett
Company, Inc., were unavailable in any academic database, and a variety of methods
were used to collect coverage from these papers. For example, a team of University of
Wisconsin-Madison researchers from another project related to Wisconsin recall
coverage collected articles from the Green Bay Press Gazette, the Gannett flagship
publication, as well as theMilwaukee Journal Sentinel, the Wisconsin State Journaland a
handful of the other metropolitan-area newspapers while the recall election was in
progress during spring 2012. The author was affiliated with this team and therefore had
access to the articles in that collection. Additionally, research field trips were conducted
to collect the remaining Gannett newspapers. The Appleton Post-Crescent,The
Manitowoc Herald Times Reporterand theFond du Lac Reporterwere collected via
local community library microfiche and physical newspaper archives during January
2013.
This collection process yielded 1,724 articles from 71 newspapers. One county is
not represented in this collection: all issues ofThe Bayfield County Journalwere
available via the WNA archive, but the paper included no coverage related to the recall
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during the sample period. See Appendix E for an inventory of Wisconsins counties, the
paper chosen from each county and the number of articles collected from that paper.
Sample selection
Up to five articles from each newspaper were coded for various recall-related
news frames. Seventeen newspapers published less than five articles related to the recall
during the sample time frame, and so all recall-related articles in these papers were
coded. Using a random number generator, five articles were selected from the remaining
54 papers. This approach yielded a collection of 331 articles, which was manageable for
manual coding but still large enough to at least begin exploring the research questions of
interest. While this approach did not allow for a comprehensive look at recall coverage in
large-circulation and daily newspapers (a project limitation), it did ensure the
oversampling of papers from small and rural communities, which were key communities
of interest.
The sample selection included news articles, news analysis, editorials and letters
to the editor. This project was most interested in determining which recall frames were
present in various communities, and what messages residents were reading when they
opened their local newspapers. For this reason, each papers coverage was collected
holistically, and a random sample was drawn from that coverage regardless of article type
or whether a professional reporter or local citizen wrote the piece. See Appendix F for an
inventory of how many articles of each type were coded from each paper.
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Independent variables
In addition to the collection of news articles, various county demographic and
voting data were also collected via the U.S. Census, the Wisconsin Government
Accountability Board and other sources specified below. See Table 1 for an overview of
all predictors used as independent variables.
Structural pluralism was measured by looking at county seat newspaper
circulation, county population, county seat population, county population density
(persons per square mile), distance to nearest MSA (metropolitan statistical area), and
county non-agricultural employment. Newspaper circulation numbers for all but the
Menominee County paper were found via the American Newspaper Representatives and
Mondo Times. (TheMenominee Nation News websites link to advertising information
remained broken throughout this project). Data for the distance to MSA indicator was
calculated by measuring via Google Maps how far in miles a county seat is located from
the city center of the nearest MSA.
Median county income, percent of the county population with a bachelors degree
and percent of the county population that is not white were also considered as pluralism
indicators for this study, as these factors also illustrate a communitys structural
composition. Diversity, as measured by the percentage of white non-Hispanic county
residents, was a difficult variable to conceptualize, as ethnic diversity in most Wisconsin
counties is very low. In some counties, high percentages of American Indian residents
means the percentages of white residents are low, but this does not indicate diversity, as
these are still homogenous counties in terms of ethnicity. While problematic, this variable
at least served as some sort of lens, albeit a foggy one, into county racial diversity.
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Table 1Descriptive statistics for independent variables
Minimum Maximum MeanStd.
Deviation
Pluralism indicators
Newspaper circulation 1000 185710 11766.14 23869.474
County population 4348 952532 79330.1 133113.819
County seat population 490 597867 28526 76937.34
Non-white percent of county population 2 88 9.8472 11.50096
Percent of county population withbachelor's degree 10 45 20.06 6.971
Persons per square mile 8 3926 164.71 474.076
Median county income 31076 75064 48199.21 8213.932
Miles to nearest MSA 0 113 69.0139 30.2457
Percent of county population not
employed in agriculture 86.4 99.5 95.1764 3.07239
Case-specific indicators
Government workers as a percent of
county workforce 7 38 12.99 4.284
Miles to Madison 0 323 145.04 76.845
Economic vitality indicators
Percent of county population in poverty 4 32 11.72 4.149Percent of county workforceunemployed 2 12 4.35 1.291
Voting indicators
Republican recall election outcome 0 1 0.01 0.118
Closeness of recall outcome 0 1 .01 .118
Partisan shifts since 2000 0 5 2.03 1.529
Note: N=72
The pluralism indicators were combined into a pluralism index since so many
indicators were closely correlated (Cronbachs Alpha = .873). See Table 2 for the
correlation matrix between pluralism variables. Specifically, circulation, county
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Dependent variables
As outlined in the above section on framing, five categories of frames were
developed for coding articles. The lists of specific subframes included in each category
were developed by various incarnations of pilot coding and reading random article
selections pulled from the full collection. The subframes were the specific ways in which
the broader frames were expressed in news and editorial content. See Table 3 for an
overview.
Additional dependent variables related to article characteristics were also coded.
These included article type (news, news analysis, editorial or letter to the editor), article
subject (Barrett, Walker, both or other), article endorsement (Barrett, Walker or neither),
article slant (left, left leaning, neutral, right leaning, right) and article tone (emotional or
neutral). See Table 4 for an overview.
Coding
One coder in addition to the author was involved in the project. The instrument
and codebook are attached in Appendices A and B. Coding was completed during
February 2013. Inter-coder reliability was conducted on 10% of the total articles coded.
Each subframe was tested for reliability via Krippendorffs alpha. Twenty-two of 35
frames reached .7 or higher, with another eight reaching 1 (the coders agreed the frames
were not present in the reliability sample). Frames that did not reach .7 included
partisanship conflict, budget references, references to state culture, and public figure
endorsements. Coder re-training yielded more consistency on endorsement partisan
conflict references that rose to the level of a conflict frame (i.e., party references in
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political titles did not automatically count) and budget references (i.e., using the word
budget explicitly). State culture references continued to be a problematic subframe,
though the articles typically were coded as some form of social discord, and this broader
category coding was ultimately more important.
Analysis set-up
Data were organized according to two levels: the individual article level and the
county/newspaper level. The county level data was analyzed via linear regression models
and the article level data was analyzed via binary logistic regressions, both of which
looked for relationships between a newspapers coverage characteristics and frames and
the broader demographic, geographic and economic features of the broader county. At the
individual article level, subframes were counted to get a total count for every frame
category. Major frames (see Appendices C and D for clarification on major-versus-minor
frame coding) counted as 2, and minor frames counted as 1. Subframes were also counted
as present/not present. Any frame count of 1 or above was coded as 1 (present). Any
frame count of 0 was coded as 0 (not present).
At the county level, percentages were calculated for article type, subject,
endorsement, slant and tone in order to control for the number of articles per paper. Then,
subframes were added together for a total frame category count, which was divided by
the total number of articles for an individual newspaper to get the average number of
times a particular frame category appeared in that newspapers coverage. Finally, a
measure of present/not present was also calculated, where any category frame count 1 or
greater was coded as 1 and any category frame count of 0 was coded as 0.
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Table 3: Overview of article frames
Conflict Democrat/liberal versus Republican/conservative
Urban versus rural/suburbanMedia versus the public/candidates
Middle/working class versus elites/wealthy/corporations
Teachers/public sector unions versus other professions/the community
Other
Economic Federal/state/municipal budget
Campaign fundraising or candidate spending
Cost of recall to taxpayers
Job numbers/economic development
Other
Social discord Civil unrest (egging, death threats, protests)
Division in Wisconsin
Political signs/sign vandalism
Patriotism/upholding or protecting democracy
State culture/"The Wisconsin Way"
Other
Political Process Political misconduct or criminal behavior
Candidate qualifications or character traits
Endorsement from prominent figure
Debate coverage
Election results
National ramifications of recall
Appropriateness of recall
Poll numbers
Voting logistics (poll hours, websites, etc.)
Other
Political Policy Act 10/collective bargaining
Education (not explicity Act 10)
Environmental conservation
Healthcare
Hunting/gun rights
Mining
Women's rights
Other
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Table 4
Overview of article characteristics
Type News
News Analysis
Editorial
Letter to the Editor
Subject Tom Barrett/Tom Barrett campaign rep
Scott Walker/Scott Walker campaign rep
Roughly even
Neither or other
Endorsement Tom Barrett
Scott WalkerNeutral or neither
Slant Left
Left leaning
Neutral
Right leaning
Right
Tone Dispassionate/Reasoned
Emotional/Inflammatory
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CHAPTER 3
RESULTS
The data were organized in two ways: by county level and by article level. In the
county level analysis, the main dependent variables were the frame averages, or the
category counts divided by number of articles to get average of a particular frame
category in a particular newspaper. Percentages were also calculated for article type,
subject, endorsement, slant and tone in order to control for the number of articles per
paper. For the article-level analysis, the main dependent variables were the presence of a
particular frame category (1 for present, 0 for not present), as well as the presence or
absence of article characteristics, including type, subject, endorsement, slant and tone.
This was measured by creating categorical dummy variables for each possible outcome
for the various article characteristic variables.
Results are organized as follows:
Descriptive statistics County level results for frame averages and presences Article level results for frame averages and presences Article characteristics results Predictors for voting outcomes Hypotheses and research question outcomes
Of the 331 articles analyzed, Walker was the most frequent subject, by a wide
margin (Figure 1). Again, subject was coded for whether a particular candidate had
prominence or a noticeable majority of the coverage in a particular article. This could be
determined by the headline, lead and first few paragraphs of the story. Even if both
candidates were mentioned, if one was given noticeable more space and attention in the
story, it was not coded as a both article. Of 331 articles, 36 (10.9%) were explicitly
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about Tom Barrett, while 145 (43.8%) were explicitly about Scott Walker. Sixty articles
(18.1%) provided roughly equal
coverage, while 90 articles (27.2%) were
about a recall-related subject other than
one or both of the candidates.
The sample was fairly balanced
between news and opinion content.
Letters to the editor comprised the
majority of the coded sample, which was
a product of oversampling small-
circulation newspapers, which often had
little news coverage of the recall and
mostly confined discussion of the recall
to the letters to the editor page. Of the
331 articles, 103 (31.1%) were straight
news stories, 38 (11.5%) were coded as
in-depth news analysis pieces, 48
(14.5%) were editorials and 142 (42.9%)
were letters to the editor.
Each article was also coded for
whether it endorsed Walker, Barrett or
neither. Most news and news analysis
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articles were coded as neutral (189%). Seventy-three articles (22.1%), specifically
editorials and letters to the editor, clearly
endorsed Barrett, while 69 articles (20.8%)
clearly endorsed Walker.
Additionally, article tone and partisan
slant were also coded. Of the 331 articles, 149
(45%) were coded as having an emotional or
inflammatory tone. The remainder, 182 articles
(54.9%) were coded as neutral or non-emotional
in tone. Slant was coded on a five-point scale,
with 1 for explicitly Democratic or liberal, 2 for
left-leaning, 3 for neutral or unclear, 4 for right-
leaning and 5 for explicitly Republican or
conservative. Very few articles were expressly
partisan; most were partisan-leaning as
indicated by language that defined the other
side (union thugs, liberal crybabies, tea
partiers) or expressed policy views that aligned
with a particular side. For simplicity, 1s and 2s
were combined into a left category, while 4s
and 5s were combined into a right category.
Of the 331 articles, 81 (24.7%) slanted left, 171
(52.1%) were neutral (most news and news analysis articles were coded here), and 76
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(23.2%) slanted right. See Table 5 for an overview.
Table 5
Frequencies and percent of sample for each article subject, endorsement, slant and typeFrequency Valid percent
Subject Barrett 36 10.9
Subject Walker 145 43.8
Subject Both 60 18.1
Subject Neither 90 27.2
Endorse Barrett 73 22.1
Endorse Walker 69 20.8
Endorse Neither 189 57.1
Slant Left 81 24.7
Slant Neutral 171 52.1
Slant Right 76 23.2
Type News 103 31.1
Type News Analysis 38 11.5
Type Editorial 48 14.5
Type Letter 142 42.9
Note: N=331
From here, relationships were explored between the prevalence of certain frames
and various article characteristics. This was done at the county level, which meant frame
averages (a percentage of a frame category out of total coverage) per county were
evaluated. The averages controlled for the number of articles per county, since not all
counties had five articles. Table 6 lays out the results of a correlation between news type
and frame averages. News articles were a bit of a catchall, with most frame categories
appearing. News analysis was more closely associated with political process frames,
which included coverage related to the appropriateness of the recall election, voting
turnout and other logistics-related coverage. Longer stories typically had the space for
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included division in Wisconsin and civil unrest associated with the recall.
Table 7
Correlations between article subject and averages of frames per county newspaper
Conflict
average
Economic
average
Social discord
average
Political
process average
Political
policy
average
Barrett .071 -.085 .024 .166 .051
Walker .262 .356** .004 -.091 .468***
Both -.2 -.06 -.156 .33** -.091
Neither -.082 -.165 .282** -.084 -.316**
Notes: *p< .1, p < .05, ** p < .01, ***, N=72
Correlations between candidate endorsement and frame averages yielded some
interesting insights (Table 8). Editorials and letters to the editor that endorsed Tom
Barrett were associated with economic and political policy averages. Much economic
coverage focused on jobs and the contentiousness over competing job loss/creation
reports published during the recall election. Barrett in particular talked about those
reports while on the campaign trail.
Walker endorsements were also associated with economic frames, however, the
endorsements were more strongly negatively related to political process storiesthe most
major of which was the discussion of whether the recall was an appropriate response to
Walkers controversial policies.
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as were left-leaning articles. Surprisingly, right leaning articles were negatively
correlated with political process and policy framesit was expected that conservative
writers would discuss the recall appropriateness and collective bargaining bills
frequently.
An emotional tone was associated with conflict frames, but interestingly was
more strongly associated with economic frames (Table 10). Emotional tone was also
negatively related to political process frames. A neutral tone was negatively associated
with economic frames and was most strongly associated with political process frames.
Table 10
Correlations between article tone and averages of frames per county newspaper
Conflict
average
Economic
average
Social
discord
average
Political
process
average
Political
policy
average
Emotional
tone .216* .284** .139 -.288** .201*
Neutral tone -.153 -.249** -.061 .395** -.166
Notes: *p< .1, p < .05, ** p < .01, ***, N=72
In addition to the correlations between frame averages and article characteristics,
binary logistic regressions also were run to look for relationships between slant, subject,
endorsement, type, slant and tone and the presence or absence of frame categories at the
article level to cross check results at the county level. The article level data was used
because of its larger N.
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The full results did not warrant an additional table, but the key significant
relationships between each frame average and various article characteristics are listed
here (coefficients have been standardized): For conflict frames, characteristics that
significantly (p < .05) predicted the presence of conflict frames included article type 2
(news analysis) ( = .747,p =.033). For economic frames, article type 3 (editorials)
predicted the presence of economic frames ( = .88,p =.003). Article subject 2 (Walker)
also predicted the presence economic frames ( = .728,p =.003). For social discord
frames, article endorsement 1 (Barrett) predicted the presence of these frames ( = .378,p
= .095). For political process frames, an emotional tone negatively predicted political
process frames ( = -.878,p = .006). For political policy frame, subject 2 (Walker)
predicted political policy frames ( = .311,p = .001).
County-level frame averages
Next, relationships between various groups of indicators and the presence and
averages of frame categories were explored. Linear regressions were used at the county
level. The independent variable indicators included pluralism, economics, voting patterns
and case-specific variables.
Pluralism included standardized variables for circulation, county population,
percent of county workforce employed in agriculture, distance from county seat to MSA
and percent white.
Economic measures were split into two groups; traditional SES was measured by
percent of county population with a high school diploma, percent of county population
with a bachelors degree and median county income. Additionally, the percentage of
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county population in poverty and county unemployment were grouped together. These
economic variables were not all combined due to multicollinearity issues.
Voting patterns were measured by coding for Republican victories in the 2011
recall election, as well as every gubernatorial and presidential election back to 2000
(2010, 2008, 2006, 2004, 2002, 2000). Additionally, the number of partisan shifts per
county was used as an independent variable in this group.
Finally, case-specific variables were used, including distance to Madison and the
percent of the county population employed as a government worker.
Again, a multivariate regression was run to look for relationships between
pluralism, poverty and unemployment, recall closeness, recall outcome, partisan shifts,
percent of government workers and distance to Madison and frame category averages at
the county level. See Table 11 for full results. Surprisingly, the pluralism index did not
yield significant results. However, recall closeness and Madison distance were more
significant. Specifically, recall closeness (the absolute value of difference in percentage
of total votes between Barrett and Walker) predicted the average of economic frames and
political policy frames.
This means that communities with a larger difference in recall results (i.e.,