Tsunami · distant and local tsunamis ... Port of Los Angeles, California simulated tsunami maximum...
Transcript of Tsunami · distant and local tsunamis ... Port of Los Angeles, California simulated tsunami maximum...
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TsunamiA Plenary Presentation for
Ocean Observations 2009Eddie Bernard
USA/NOAA
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Indian Ocean - Kenneth Jarrott & Rick Bailey
Pacific Ocean- Filomena Nelson
NE Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea - Stefano Tinti
Caribbean Sea- Christa von Hillebrandt
Global - Peter Koltermann
USA- Christian Meinig, Vasily Titov,Kathleen O’Neil, Robert Lawson
Co- Contributors
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Outline• What is a tsunami?
• History of Tsunami Warning Systems
• Existing Tsunami Warning Capabilities
• Summary & Future Challenges
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Outline• What is a tsunami?
• History of Tsunami Warning Systems
• Existing Tsunami Warning Capabilities
• Summary & Future Challenges
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Stages of Tsunami Evolution
Example
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Historical Tsunami Sources: 2000 B.C. to Present
Source: NOAA’s National Geophysical Data Center
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Outline• What is a tsunami?
• History of Tsunami Warning Systems
• Existing Tsunami Warning Capabilities
• Summary & Future Challenges
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History of Tsunami Warning Systems
1946 Alaska Tsunami: Reaction
Seismic detection of large earthquakes:
Results in saving lives,
but over-warning 90% of time for distant tsunamis
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5 6 7 8 9 10-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Courtesy V.K. Gusiakov
Earthquake Magnitude
Tsun
ami I
nten
sity
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History of Tsunami Warning Systems1960 Chilean Tsunami: Reaction
Seismic detection of large earthquakes
+ tide gauge observations of tsunami:
Results in saving lives,
but over-warning 75% of time for distant tsunamis
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Deep Ocean and Tide-Gauge Measurements of Tsunamis
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DART IIKey technologies:
•Bi-directional coms
•Tsunami Detection Algorithm
•Backup systems
•Worldwide deployable
•Plug-in to existing warning centerinfrastructure
•Optional MET sensor
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History of Tsunami Warnings2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami: Reaction
Seismic detection of large earthquakes
+ deep ocean detection of tsunami
+ tide gauge verification:
Results in elimination of over-warningfor distant tsunamis
and
Provides forecasts for distant and localtsunamis
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Deep-Ocean Tsunami Detectors with Data Available
Source: NOAA/National Data Buoy Center
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JAMSTEC
ERI, Univ. Tokyo
JMA
JAMSTECJMA
JMA
Japan Tsunami Warning System12 Cabled Deep-Ocean Tsunami Detectors
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Outline• What is a tsunami?
• History of Tsunami Warning Systems
• Existing Tsunami Warning Capabilities
• Summary & Future Challenges
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November 15, 2006 Kuril Is. Tsunami
Propagation Animation
Forecast
Observations
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November 15, 2006 Kuril Is. Tsunami Forecast Modeling
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Tsunami Warning
×
10:13: 25.0 Earthquake origin time10:13: 29.3 (4.3 s) First earthquake location/magnitude10:14 (1.5 min) Tsunami Advisory was issued10:16 (2.5 min) Tsunami was observed at Kashiwazaki.
Local Tsunami: Japan Example: M 6.8 17/09/2007
Kashiwazaki (6U):lead time 0 s
Nagaoka (6U):lead time 3 s
Iizuna (6U):lead time 20 s
Courtesy of Kenji Satake, University of Tokyo
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Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission
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End-to-End Tsunami Warning System
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Global Tsunami Warning System:Interoperable Regional Efforts
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Summary• Tsunami Warning Systems have evolved into
regional end-to-end systems with global standardsand guidelines
• Real Time Tsunami Forecasts are now possible fordistant and local tsunamis
• Future challenges: Complete Global Warning System Through Both: · Interoperable Regional Tsunami Warning Systems · Ongoing Outreach and Educational Programs and……. · Sustain Support Through Public Safety and New
Products (i.e. tsunami induced currents)
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Future Challenges
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1983 Japanese Tsunami
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Port of Los Angeles, California simulated tsunami maximum amplitudes
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Port of Los Angeles, California simulated tsunami maximum currents
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Port of Los Angeles, California simulated tsunami
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Feel See Hear