Dissertation - Results Onwards

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5. Results

5.1 Anthropogenic Debate and Talks for Action

1) Does the article debate the existence of anthropogenic global warming?

Figure 5: Analytical content results for UK and US articles: Question 1

The results from Question 1 reveal both the UK and the US press predominately reported

global warming as an anthropogenic issue. Based on the 50-article sample taken for each

country, the UK had only 4 articles that debated the existence of anthropogenic global

warming whilst the US had 6.

However, unlike the UK newspaper articles, I found that a significant number of the US

articles (18%) had contrasting views to those of their government, particularly during the

Bush administration era. Houston Chronicle (2005: 10) reported how the U.S government¶s

approach to global warming was to adopt the motto ³see no warming, hear no warming,

speak no warming´, whilstRevkin reported (2005) of how White House officials continuously

altered reports on climate research to question the credibility of scientist¶s data supporting the

theory of global warming, just as Nierenberg did back in the 80¶s for President Reagan.

There is also a clear split between certain state governments and the federal government as

indicated by statements such as Bill Richardson¶s (Governor New Mexico), who stated

³Under the Bush administration, the United States is ignoring the world¶s best scientists on

climate change´ O¶Driscoll (2006: 1). Washington Post (2006) arguesthat the more states

UK: Articles that debated theexistence of anthropogenic

global warming

Debate

No Debate

US: Articles that debated theexistence of anthropogenic

global warming

Debate

No Debate



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across America that take independent action, the more pressure there will be for a national

policy to be introduced. An earlier article published in Washington Post (2006: A22) claims

in the headline ³The problem of climate change has become a crisis that no responsible

politician can ignore´, thereby distancing itself from any form of affiliation with the Bush

administrationin terms of views on climate change.

Towards the end of Bush¶s era, when the mounting evidence on climate change is

incontrovertible, George W Bush reluctantly acknowledgesglobal warming (without actually

saying the words µglobal warming¶), ³Listen, I recognise the surface of the Earth is warmer

and that an increase in greenhouse gases caused by humansis contributing to the problem´

Mason (2005: 1).

2) Is there any mention of taking action against global warming?

Figure 6: Analytical content results for UK and US articles: Question 2

The results from Question 2 show both, the UK and the US predominately reported global

warming as an issue that requires action with small a proportion of articles not discussing the

need for action(UK=11; US=13).

As one might expect after viewing the Question 1 results, the Question 2 results follow

suit.With regards to the U.S government-newspaper divide onviews towards global warming,

with 16% of articles showing the press is calling for action to be taken but the federal

government is not. High profile members of the Bush administration informed the world of

UK: Articles that givemention to the necessaryaction to be taken against

global warming

N

m enti

n of acti o n.

Menti o n of

necessary

acti o n

US: Articles that givemention to the necessaryaction to be taken against

global warming

No m enti o n of acti o n

Menti o n of

necessary

acti o n



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also has to ques tion whe ther the inf lux of fresh wa ter, requ ired by themode ls to s ignif ican tly

alter the TH C, is rea listic (Mashey, 2009).

Hurricanes

The on ly repor ting on hurr icanes came from the Hous ton Chron icle (R aks in,2005 ; Verreng ia,2005 ; Berger, 2005), wh ich pub lished ar ticles around the peak of hurr icane season and a lso in

Amer ica¶s mos t active hurr icane season on record. The ar ticles argue the number of ca tegory

4 and 5 hurr icanes is on the increase bu t there has been no change to hurr icane frequency.

One ques tion sc ientists have been a ttemp ting to answer is whe ther the changes are due to

globa l warm ing or par t of a na tura l hurr icane cyc le. Mit che ll et al. (2006) s tates, ³ the ex tra

latent hea t ava ilable through increased sea surface tempera tures and h igher prec i pitation ra tes

(as a resu lt of g loba l warm ing) has the po tential to increase the intens ity of a tmospher ic

disturbances´.

Predictions (Temperature and Sea Level Rise)

The mos t frequen tly occurr ing sc ience in my samp le re lated to fu ture pred ictions, w ith

spec if ic emphas is on tempera ture increases (Samp le, 2006 ; Connor, 2001 ; Simons, 2006 ;

Smith, 2006 ; O¶Dr isco ll, 2006 ; Duff- Brown, 2006 ; Has ley, 1997 ; Vergano, 2007) and sea

level r ise (S tevens, 1997 ; R ui ba l, 2006 ; Has ley, 1997 ; Fox, 2005 ; Vidal, 2005). There are

multi ple men tions of poss i ble tempera ture r ises (up to 8° C) and sea leve l r ises (up to 1.02m)

by the end of the 21 st cen tury, that signif ican tly exceed those of the IP CC published in the

IPCC ¶s mos t recen t repor t (max es t. = 6.4° C and 0.59m respec tively).If CO2 emissions

con tinue to increase then we can expec t tempera tures to increase. However, the ex tent to

which this will happen is fa ir ly unc lear w ith a w ide range of va lues be ing pub lished in the

litera ture. I t has been sugges ted we are a lready comm itted to a cer tain degree of warm ing as

the c limate sys tem has an e lemen t of lag. Inev itably, an increase in g loba l tempera tures w ill

lead to therma l expans ion (wh ich a t presen t accoun ts for more than ha lf the observed sea

level r ise) of our oceans ; whilst the me lting of ice caps and g lac iers w ill also cause a

signif ican t r ise.

5.3 Po licy Dom inates Sc ience in R epor ting on G loba l Warm ing and Cli mate Change

A breakdown of themes (sc ientif ic vs. po litical) for repor ts on g loba l warm ing and c limate

change for the UK and US broadshee ts is shown in F igure 7accord ing to loca tion,wh ilst the



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additional papers can be seen in Figure 8. The main recurring themes of the investigation can

be seen in Table 1.

Figure 7: Scientific vs. political themes results for US and UK broadsheets

The US broadsheets are dominated by articles that appear to have a political stem running

through them, with over 50% of articles in the sample expressing dominant themes of a

political nature. The UK broadsheets reveal a similar pattern with political themed articles

occurring marginally more frequently within the sample than scientific articles. The UK had

3 articles where the themes were unable to be categorised and were therefore classed as

miscellaneous.

Figure 8: Scientific vs. political themes results for Hous t on C ¡

¢ oni £ l ¤ and M ¤ t ¢ o (UK)

US BroadsheetThemes

S cience P ol itics

UK BroadsheetThemes

S cience P ol itica l Misce llane ou s

The Houston ChronicleThemes

S cience P ol itics

Metro (UK)Themes

S cience P ol itica l Misce llane ou s



3 2

The Hous ton Chron icle breaks the genera l trend as, for the f irst time, we see more ar ticles

wr itten from a sc ientif ic perspec tive. A total of 10 ar ticles (66%) have a dom inan t scientif ic

theme wh ilst only 5 (33%) have a dom inan t political theme.

The Metro UK fo llowed the pa ttern of the UK broadshee ts, w ith the ma jor ity of ar ticles be ing

repor ted from a po liti cal perspec tive (60%) and a m inor ity (30%) be ing sc ientif ically

repor ted.

Tab le 1 : The ma in recurr ing themes ca tergor ised into µPolitical¶ and µScientif ic¶ columns

based on the def inition of the theme and the na ture of the ar ticle.

Po li ical S ci n ific

Theme Number of Ar ticles Theme Number of Ar ticles

E missions 17 Science and

Technology

7

Legislative Body 2 Climatology 3

E nvironment 2 Weather 3

UN Institutions 2 E arth and

Atmospheric Science

3

Science News 3

5.4.1 Sc ientists Vo ices Go Unheard

Of the ar ticles s tudied, 58/100 prov ided a t leas t one h igh prof ile f igure, wh ich is a s ignif ican t

enough va lue from wh ichto draw conc lusions from ( R owntree, 1981).

When look ing a tthe en tire samp le, I found that political f igures were far morefrequen tly

linked to ar ticles than sc ientif ic f igures, as illustra ted by Tab le 2, w ith sc ientists very rare ly

being linked.

Tab le 2 : The na ture of h igh prof ile f igures linked to the ar ticles s tudied.

Po li ical S ci n ific

50 8



33

Figure 9: The background of high profile figures linked to the articles studied in UK and US

broadsheets

UK ± Bro dsheet US ± Bro dsheet

A total of 40 UK broadsheet articles were studied, of which, 20 had a significant input from a

named person (19 political figures: 1 scientist). The politicians cited were largely British and

American, with Tony Blair (Former-UK Prime minister) and Michael McMahon (US

democrat) each being linked to 3 separate articles. The one scientist cited in the UK

broadsheet was John Butler, an astronomer concerned with sunspots.

In the US 35 broadsheet articles were studied, in comparison to the UK¶s 40. The slight

reduction in the total number of US broadsheet articles studied was largely due to the paper,

USA Today, being a less sophisticated broadsheet, compared with the others in the study.

Of the 35 broadsheet articles studied, 23 had a significant influence from a named person and

of these 23 persons; all were politicians. The most commonly cited politician being Michael

McMahon, the US democrat, who featured in 7 articles from the US broadsheets. He was also

the joint leading politician to be cited in the UK broadsheets. Why he features so prominently

is unsure at present, but I will seek to address this question.

0

5

¥

0

¥

5

2 0

Scientists P ol iticians

0

5

¦

0

¥

5

2 0

2 5




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Figure 10: The background of high profile figures linked to the articles studied in UK Metro

and The Houston Chronicle

UK ± Metro US ± TheHousto Chro i le

A total of 10 articles were studied from the UK Metro and half of them were able to provide a

person who featured prominently in the article. 80% of the cited persons were politicians,

with Michael McMahon, being the most commonly cited politician once again. Out of the 4

articles that had a political figure as a leading link, Michael McMahon appeared in 3 of them,

with Ed Miliband (Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change), featuring in the

remaining article. The one and only scientist mentioned was Bert Bolin, a meteorologist from

Sweden and ex-chairman of the IPCC.

The Houston Chronicle is the paper that received the most scientific input from high profile

figures, with 60% of all articles with a cited person, being scientists. Not only did it have

more scientists cited than politicians, but no other paper studied showed anywhere near the

same amount of cited scientists, and perhaps more surprisingly, none of the US broadsheets

even cited one scientist.

The scientists mentioned include James Hansen, Bert Bolin, Gerald Meehl (climatologist),

Rosa Meehan (marine mammals specialist), Roger Pielke (meteorologist) and Chris Landsea

(meteorologist). The only politician cited wasthe former president of the United States,

George W Bush.

0

1

2

3

4

5


0

2

4

6

8

10

12




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5.4.2 R uddiman Hypo thes is Inves tigation

The R uddiman hypo thesis is one that has rece ived much a ttention in the sc ientif ic

commun ity. However, it did no t get propaga ted into the press as effec tively as it perhaps

shou ld have. When search ing the Nex is UK da tabase for ar ticles on g loba l warm ing or

climate change, in three ma instream broadshee ts in bo th the UK and the US, the search

returned 3,000+ resu lts. When search ing for R uddiman (be tween the same da te range and in

the same newspapers), the search re turns no h its. Th is is probab ly due to the fac t that the

search was look ing for R uddiman to be men tioned in the head line, and due to the na ture that

head lines are wr itten in, the search u ltimately re turned no resu lts. However, when search ing

for R uddiman w ithin the who le of the ar ticle, the search re turned a limited number of h its: 5.

Of the 5 resu lts, on ly 2 link to the ma in R uddiman hypo thesis (see chap ter 3).

The two ar ticles that speak of the R uddiman hypo thes is come from The Guard ian and The

New York T imes. The UK 192 wordar ticle comes in the form of a book rev iew, mean ing that

the R uddiman hypo thesis d id no t make it into any news ar ticles of the 3 UK broadshee ts I

studied. The New York T imes ar ticle, repor ts the R uddiman hypo thesis w ith a h igh level of

accuracy a lthough the ar ticle is still lack ing in scope and we ight.

Upon conduc ting the same search in two of the lead ing sc ience journa ls, Na ture and Sc ience,

we can see that R uddiman has had mu lti ple ar ticles pub lished in each, 6 in na ture and 2 inScience, wh ich c lear ly s trugg led to break through into the ma in stream press.

5.5 R esu lts Summary

It wou ld appear that politi cs is be ing emphas ized more read ily than sc ience, w ithin the Br itish

and Amer ican press, surround ing the issue of g loba l warm ing. The sc ience that does ge t

repor ted is fa ir ly accura te, bu t occas iona lly over-exaggera ted, and repor ters of ten neg lect

coun ter argumen ts and tend to repor t the f indings of one s tudy a t a time. The dom inan t

themes be ing covered in the ar ticles s tudied were large ly of a po litical nature w ith far fewer

themes link ing d irec tly to sc ience. Po liticians were a lso linked, men tioned or quo ted in

ar ticles cons iderab ly more so than sc ientists, w ith h ighly regarded sc ientists v iews and

theor ies s trugg ling to make it into the ma in s tream news, poss i bly due to be ing ou t-compe ted

by the po litically themed ar ticles.



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6. D i c i o n

6.1 In terpre tation of R esults

The resu lts to the ques tions in sec tion 5.2 show the fee lings of the sc ientif ic commun ity

towards g loba l warm ing are that globa l warm ing is an an thropogen ic issue, w ith 92% of

ar ticles from the UK and 88% from the US s tating so. From the US perspec tive this is

interes ting for a number of reasons. F irstly: under the Bush Adm inistration cases of ³fa lse

ba lanc ing´ have been repor ted where by a d ispropor tiona te amoun t of time is given to more

fr inge sc ientists or those w ith less cred i bility or w ith add itiona l agendas, w ithout noting so,

and thus g iving the impress ion that there is more deba te in the sc ientif ic commun ity abou t

whe ther or no t climate change is an issue to be concerned abou t (Monbiot, 2004). Second :

Amer ica is be lieved to have more of c limate skep tics than any o ther coun try (Demer itt, 2001 ;

Lahsen, 2005) and one wou ld expec t them to p lay more of a ro le in the samp le co llected in

this s tudy.An interes ting twist, in the US samp le, was the leve l of con troversy that appeared

to ex ist between the US federa l governmen t and the newspapers. Th is shows that the

scep tical approach adop ted by the Bush adm inistration was no t universa lly accep ted by a ll

med ia ou tlets.

The second po int indicates that policy is hav ing a ma jor ro le w ithin the med ia, as one cou ld

argue pure sc ience ar ticles wou ld inform the pub lic of the sc ientif ic fac ts and no t give

men tion to poss i ble so lutions to the issue.

Bell (1994) d iscovered that there rema ins a cons iderab le misma tch be tween med iarepor ting

of sc ientif ic informa tion and the pub lic's unders tand ingof that informa tion.

The sc ience that does ge t repor ted can¶ t be scru tinised too heav ily, as some h ighly qua lif ied

science corresponden ts repor t it with a h igh degree of accuracy. However, one cou ld argue

there appears to be an e lemen t of b ias in the sc ience as conf licting s tudies are of ten neg lected.

For examp le, the ar ticle on sunspo ts, be ing the cause of the recen t warm ing we are see ing,

was no t coun ter argued or fo llowed up desp ite an array of ev idence suppor ting the idea that

sunspo ts p lay no ro le in the recen t warm ing.



3 7

The TH C ar ticle was wr itten w ith the intention of br inging fear into the pub lic¶s imag ination.

Studies have been pub lished show ing head lines and s tor ies incorpora ting fear can be

detr imen tal to the pub lic¶s op inion on a par ticular issue and towards po licy mak ing (e.g.

µNewspaper scare head lines can be coun terproduc tive¶ Hu lme, 2007). However, desp ite

hav ing a po tentially de tr imen tal impac t on our op inions, the pub lic s till yearn to read ar ticlesexpress ing e lemen ts of d isas ter.

Hurr icanes came up on three occas ions w ithin The Hous ton Chron icle and were a ll published

shor tly af ter Hurr icane Ka tr ina occurred, illustrating that it takes a ma jor even t (such as a

natura l disas ter) to make the press ques tion the impac ts and effec ts of c limate change. The

ar ticles successfu lly ra ised the theory of increased s torm s treng th of hurr icanes over recen t

decades, wh ilst not necessar ily inf luenc ing their frequency. The repor ters pu t forward the

case that this increase in s torm s treng th was s imply par t of a na tura l cyc le, bu t also drew on

studies sugges ting it could be a ttr i buted to g loba l warm ing.

Perhaps due to the na ture of repor ting, the ar ticles observed in the samp le appear to over-

exaggera te some of the pred ictions, for tempera ture increases and sea level r ise, by

deli bera tely p ick ing ou t the mos t str ik ing pred ictions from the sc ientif ic arena and choos ing

to repor t on them, aga in u tilising the use of fear in the news. Th is u ltimately leads to over-

estimating sc ientif icscenar ios for tempera ture and sea level r ises by the pub lic as shown by

Bell (1994).

The f indings from the themes inves tigation suppor t those of An tilla (2005), who a lso found

³ the science of c limate change does no t appear to be a pr ime news topic´ (An tilla, 2005 :

350). Th is new s tudy revea led a much larger propor tion of the newspapers focused on the

politi cal aspec ts of c limate change, w ith par ticular emphas is on em iss ions. Key deba tes (such

as R uddiman¶s) are a lso go ing unmen tioned in the med ia, w ith poss i ble de tr imental

consequences. One cou ld argue the med ia shou ld a ttempt to prov ide the pub lic, and perhaps

more impor tantly the po licy makers, w ith the grea test amoun t of sc ientif ic informa tion as

poss i ble, to he l p everyone unders tand our c limate. However much of the sc ientif ic

informa tion is wrapped up in comp lex concep ts that the w ider commun ity wou ld s trugg le to

interpre t. Effec tive sc ience commun icators who have the ab ilit y to take raw sc ience and

interpre t it to the genera l public have therefore, never been in such a h igh demand.



3 8

Up un till now, no s tudies have focused on key f igures be ing linked to c limate change in the

med ia. There is a s ignif ican t difference be tween the number of sc ientists be ing linkedand the

number of po liticians be ing linked that needs to be exp lained. The s tudy shows po liticians are

more common ly assoc iated to ar ticles than sc ientists around the issue of c limate change, and

once aga in po ints towards po litics be ing more inf luential in the med ia than sc ience when it comes to the topic of c limate change.

Of the 58 ar ticles that prov ided a link to a named person, w ith a much larger input from

politi cal f igures, wh ich suppor ts (W ilk ins, 1993 ; McCr ight& Dun lap, 2003 ; Boykoff&

R ober ts, 2003). Michae l McMahon was linked to 22% of the 58 ar ticles. The US Democra t

fea tured in every search excep t for the Hous ton Chron icle so it is on ly na tura l to ques tion

wha t makes h is link to the med ia so s trong when it comes to the po litics of g loba l warm ing.

McMahon is curren tly serv ing as the U.S represen tative for the 13 th Congress iona l Distr ict of

New York and has a range of c lear-cu t aims ou tlined on h is webs ite re lating to tack ling

climate change. However, these s tatemen ts cou ld be referred to as the norm for po liticians

nowadays and no fur ther ev idence cou ld be found link ing McMahon to c limate change in the

med ia. There is a poss i bilit y the Michae l McMahon be ing spoken of is in fac t the Sen ior

Cli mate Adv isor for BP.

The R uddiman Hypo thesis rece ived a s ignif ican tly h igher level of a ttention in the lead ing

science journa ls than it did in the newspapers. Th is revea ls how ineffec tively the newspapers

are when it comes to p ick ing up key deba tes, occurr ing w ithin the c limate sc ience

commun ity, and repor ting them.

6.2 W ider D iscuss ion

The d ifference be tween Amer ica and Br itain is that the Amer ican¶s had a leader who had

strong links to the o il indus try and therefore chose large ly no t to acknow ledge g loba l

warm ing as an issue that requ ired ac tion for near ly h is who le time as pres ident. A lthough, the

initial resu lts do no t appear to show any s ignif ican t degree of separa tion on the a ttit udes of

the Br itish and Amer ican press, it is impor tan t to remember the twist outlined above wh ich

interes tingly s tates how the newspapers appear to be d isagree ing w ith the v iews of the federa l

governmen t in the US. Many Amer ican¶s chose to shape their be liefs towards g loba l warm ing

around those of George Bush, espec ially those who cons idered themse lves to be R epub lican

suppor ters, as shown by N isbet& Mooney (2007) who talk of how on ly 23% of co llege-



3 9

educa ted R epub licans in Amer ica be lieve g loba l warm ing to be a ttr i butable to human ac tivity

compared to 75% of Democra ts.

The overa ll f indings were as pred icted, w ith a dom inan t political input that takes the limelight

away from the sc ience. The reason for this probab ly lies somewhere in be tween wha t the pub lic wan t to read, wha t the newspapers wan t to repor t and wha t the po liticians wan t the

med ia to inform the pub lic on ( Croteau, 2000). The genera l public are likely to be more

concerned w ith wha t they need to do, and wha t their ac tions are u ltimately lead ing to with

regards to g loba l warm ing. For examp le the infamous po lar bear case s tudy where the break

down of sea ice ear lier than usua l is caus ing huge implications for the an imals hun ting

reg ime.

The comp lexities of the sc ience surround ing c limate change are of such a na ture that the

genera l public (even those who cons ider themse lves to be ou t-r ight broadshee t readers) wou ld

strugg le to come to terms w ith them, and therefore, are un likely to be repor ted. Th is is

ultimately why many sc ientif ic issues are no t repor ted as shown by the resu lts from 5.4 and

5.5.1/5.5.2.

6.3 L imitations

To suppor t the f indings of this study, a more de tailed observa tion of newspaper repor ts is

necessary. The two add itiona l papers, desp ite bo th show ing- interes ting f indings, were unab le

to be compared d irec tly as they had littl e in common. A sma ll samp le of ar ticles was s tudied

from a limited se lection of papers due to time res tra ints. Th is led to some resu lts be ing

indicative ra ther than conc lusive (e.g. Sec tion 5.2). The samp le was co llected based on how

relevan t Lex is Nex is though t the ar ticles to be. However, the manner in wh ich Lex is Nex is

orders its resu lts in terms of re levance is open to a degree of scru tiny as the ma jor ity of

ar ticles ana lysed were wr itten over the years 2005/2006. These were poss i bly ranked as

highly re levan t as this was when pub lic know ledge and deba te of g loba l warm ing was

widespread w ith even ts such as Hurr icane Ka tr ina, the f ilm µAn Inconven ient Tru th¶ rea lised

in 2005 and two consecu tive years of record break ing tempera tures in the US.



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7 . 0 Co ncl i o n

If the med ia were fa lsely repor ting c limate change, for wha tever reason, be it politica l or

other, then the issue wou ld need to be addressed as it could have dangerous consequences.

The ma in f indings of this s tudy revea l politics is dom inating the sc ience in a range of Br itish

and Amer ican newspapers.However, I suspec t the po liti cal aspec t to the issue of g loba l

warm ing is wha t the aud ience are d irec tly concerned w ith as a pose to the raw sc ience.

Therefore, it is d iff icult to assess whe ther the me thod of repor ting c limate change observed in

this s tudy is µr isky¶, as it has become commonp lace and the way we expec t the issue to be

repor ted. A fo llow up s tudy wou ld be w ise to conduc t a pub lic survey a imed a t estab lishing

whe ther peop le think newspapers shou ld include more sc ience on modern c limate change.

Amer ican newspapers expressed fee lings of con troversy towards their federa l governmen t¶s

lack of ac tion on c limate change, w ith Bush fea tur ing as a pr ime suspec t.

The s tudy revea ls c limate scep ticism, par ticular ly in recen t years, is subs tantially lower than

or iginally though t, with scep tics becom ing increas ingly rare, due to the gradua l build-up of

evidence for recen t anthropogen ic warm ing.

A large scope for expans ion around this s tudy ex ists, which cou ld involve observa tion of add itiona l newspapers from the UK and/or US, or look ing into new loca tions such as Ind ia

and China: the deve loping na tions that aren¶t ready to make the em iss ion cu ts that the r icher

nations can.

There is po tential to track how the issue is repor ted over time, wh ilst iden tifying key even ts

along a g iven time line to es tablish how they inf luenced repor ting.

A var iety of news ou tlets ex ist in var ious forms and one interes ting idea is to focus on these

differen t med ia sources to see if they d iffer from the newspaper f indings.

Word Coun t: 10,000

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