Disney Space - A Scenario Planning Report (1)

Reccomended Citation | Chester Elijah Branch, “Space Disney: Scenario Planning Report” Parables Today (June 2012).

Scenario Planning

June 15

2012Scenario planning systematically examines the external environment. These plans search for potential opportunities, challenges, and likely future developments in areas of interest to an organisation. The planning in this report exercise will cover the following steps: scoping, trend analysis, building scenarios, generating options, testing options, and the action plan.

Branch LDSL 707 Major Project 1

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Table of Contents

Table of Contents............................................................................................................................................. 2

Intro to the 13-Step Workshop.......................................................................................................................... 3

Scoping............................................................................................................................................................. 4

Concept Mapping............................................................................................................................................. 5

Trend Analysis.................................................................................................................................................. 8

Driving Force Analysis...................................................................................................................................... 9

Scenario Force Fields..................................................................................................................................... 11

Building Scenarios.......................................................................................................................................... 13

Scenario Logics and Spaces.......................................................................................................................... 14

WDC S.W.O.T. Analysis................................................................................................................................. 17

Key Steps to Scenario Planning..................................................................................................................... 18

Test Options................................................................................................................................................... 20

Action Plan..................................................................................................................................................... 23

Moving Forward.............................................................................................................................................. 27

Links............................................................................................................................................................... 28

Sources Consulted......................................................................................................................................... 28

Endnotes........................................................................................................................................................ 29

Parables Today: Transmedia Consulting Page | 2

http://www.linkedin.com/in/chestercv

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Intro to the 13-Step Workshop

CAST MEMBERS: Chester Branch, Isaac Adjei Boadi, Rebecca Janiak, Shanta’ Harper, Jeffrey Suderman, Dustin Knutson, James Gorham, and Philip A Foster

Disney Strategic Labs (DSL) | Imaginer

INTERNAL MEDIA CONSULTING TEAM

Scenario Planning:

A 13-step workshop

This guide will help participants follow the process of the Scenario workshop in May, but also, be helpful as a guide in decision recommendations and

follow-through steps.


*Adapted from Dr. Gary handouts given in the LDSL 707 Residency, May 7-12, 2012. Dr. Jay Gary adapted his handout from a book by P. Schwartz called The Art of the Long View and handouts from Dr. Peter Bishop. Dr. Bishop’s handouts are based on the GBN Scenario method.


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Scoping

1. Articulate the focal issue or strategic decision (up to 3 years out) that the scenarios are to illuminate for your client organization.

Client name: The Walt Disney Company

For the year 2037 | 25 years from now

What is the question/issue you want to answer/address?

Before launching our scenario planning exercise we scoped out the situation. Going through this process can determine if scenario planning fits better than any other business plan. Sometimes the issue in question may not require futures forecasting. If the issue only involves small changes to business as usual, then another methodology would apply.

We concluded that space travel, and investing in private space travel, qualified as a large scale investment. For Disney, this issue was worthy of scenario planning. The team began identifying where we were currently. From there we projected our future goals. After honing in on our focal question, we began our mini workshop.

Should Disney Invest in Space Tourism?


This was the question we worked from.


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Concept Mapping

2. Create a concept map of your client organization and their industry.

Idea

Production

Sale/Retail

Customer Use

End of Life

List the major actors that populate these competitive positions in reference to your client organization.


Parks/Resorts: Universal, Royal Caribbean

Consumer Products: Viacom

Media Networks: FOX, CBS

Studio Entertainment: Time Warner

Interactive Media: Viacom


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i

Present Alliances

1. Technology2. Travel3. Transportation4. Food Industry5. Education6. Hewlett Packard7. Siemens8. Kodak9. Coca-Cola10. McDonalds11. UTV Software Communication (India)12. Ford Motor Company

PresentCustomers

1. Families2. Teenagers/Tweens3. Sports Fans4. Science/Technology Enthusiast5. Collectors

EstablishedCompetitors

1. Virgin Atlantic2. Warner3. Universal Studios4. Turner5. Dream Works6. Media Related / Television


Porter’s 5 Forces


Parables Today7. Technology8. Resort Vacation Companies / Travel Companies9. MGM10. Holy land Experience11. PBS Kids

PotentialEntrants

1. Universal Studios2. NASA3. Nickelodeon4. Foreign Countries5. Technology (Google, Amazon, Facebook)6. Cruise lines (Royal Caribbean) 7. Boeing8. Universities (Think-tanks, research)9. Lockheed

PresentSubstitutes

1. Universal2. Nickelodeon3. Six Flags Brand4. Busch Gardens5. Destination Events6. Events in a Box7. Apple 8. Virgin Atlantic9. Cruise Lines (Royal Caribbean) 10. Airlines11. Microsoft12. Video Gaming13. Movie-Theaters IMAX 3D/4D14. Facebook – Social Media15. YouTube16. Google17. National Parks18. Television19. Resorts


All of the 5 ‘Major Categories’ mentioned in the workshop touch on the 5 Walt Disney Company (WDC) Markets:

Media Networks Parks/Resorts Studio Entertainment Consumer Products Interactive Media

Porter’s 5


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Trend Analysis

3. Brainstorm the major external trends in this industry over the next 20 years (identify trends, consider implications, analyze drivers).

A company needs to be in equilibrium with these external drivers. ii Trend spotting simply amounts to collecting data on trends and events as they happen. Trend analysis finds ways to stay within that equilibrium. This highlights the crucial significance of an organization’s sense of higher ambition. Being driven by long-term purposes, and finding where your passions profitably intersect with your company’s area of capabilities, will keep Disney sustainable for the future.iii

Social: Popularity and diversity are both signs of social force.

Technological: “Technology may be the greatest single category of change drivers that we will cope with over the next millennium.” iv

Economy: The global economy remains a headlining issue. China’s purchasing power will definitely shape the next 10-20 years.

Environmental Forces: A stronger driver than climate change is the fear of limited oil reserves. The energy that runs most of the technology we take for granted is derived from oil.v The oil shock of the 70s spawned most of the scenario planning we see today.vi

Political: We see this happening in Chinese communities. Local communities consider the state as a father figure. The state also owns most business firms. The private firms, like Lenovo, depend in many ways on state patronage.vii



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Driving Force Analysis

4. Identify the conditions shaping the future over the forecast period.

viii

Enter at least three constants in the scenario framework:

Constants (statements of fact that will not change during the time horizon) --

1. Kids2. Technology Exists3. Seasons4. Aging5. Economy – Supply/Demand6. Desire for happiness / pleasure7. Authority Structure8. Need for food9. Need for Education10. Need to connect for relationships

5. Select the driving forces outside the organization (trends, events and issues) that are shaping the baseline future.

Enter up to three of each of the scenario driving forces:


These are possible stories that would make the headlines.

And behind those broad, external, trends are very specific driving forces.

You’ll notice that these events begin to fit within certain groups, categories, or trends.


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Trends ("more" or "less") -- (describe probable futures)

1. Increase in Technology2. Cultural Stability +/-3. National Stability +/-4. Global Stability +/-5. Disposable Income +/-6. Increase in Personalization7. Isolation/Socialization +/-8. Changes in Isolation/Socialization +/-9. Collaboration / Open Source +/-10. Growth in Curiosity +/-

Issues ("Should...) – (write out value questions affecting your industry)

1. Should we care about being “green”?2. Should we care about product segregation? Availability to the masses?3. Should we care about the value of currency4. Should we produce offshore?5. Should we be concerned with Government Regulation?6. Should we be “Good Citizens” of space?7. Should we be concerned with personal privacy? Use/Abuse8. Should we use space for entertainment?

Events (could be a newspaper headline in 10 years) -- (describe possible futures)

1. 2012 | Technology causes infertility2. 2013 | WiFi Goes 5G3. 2015 | WiFi Free4. 2016 | Average home owns 2.2 Robots5. 2020 | Virtual Reality 3D Video Conference Existing 6. 2020 | World Power Shortage7. 2020 | Weight Tax Implemented8. 2020 | Personal Computers Obsolete 9. 2021 | Cars are Obsolete10. 2022 | Personal Computers Banned11. 2022 | Technology Free Resorts12. 2025 | The death of copyright13. 2025 | 30 minute flight Atlanta to Beijing14. 2025 | Space trash powers the globe15. 2025 | RFID/GPS Chips Mandated16. 2025 | Orbiting Prisons


These were the conditions our group brainstormed during the workshop.


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Scenario Force Fields

6. List and rank the force fields (work from number 5) or axes that are both highly important in their impact and highly uncertain in their outcome (direction A & B refer to polarities)

Force Field Analysis (conduct numerous driving vs. restraining force fields)

Which forces will allow regulation to decrease OR customization to increase?



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These 2 force field models are more attenuated versions of the ones the group made during the workshop.


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Building Scenarios

7. Build scenario logics that represent different continuums for the two highest ranked force fields (ie. rank the top fields in # 6; list the top two forces in the 1 & 2 spaces below, along with their polarities) .

After various sessions of preparation we built the four scenarios above. Our group concluded that the x axis would be comprised of varying degrees of regulation. The y axis would be comprised of different levels of customization. The Customized Global Market represents the best case scenario for Disney. A Global Monarch or Global Tyranny represents the worst case scenario.



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Scenario Logics and Spaces

8. Create interesting and illustrative 2-3 word titles for each of the logics.

9. Elaborate one of the four scenario spaces or logics into a complete story that shows how that specific scenario could plausibly emerge from the present. (Write only one story of at least 300 words, that corresponds to one logic)

Genie – “your wish is my command” refers to a future that is highly customized and with low regulations. The consumers are the producers. [I will elaborate on the next page]

Mother Gothel – “the plague” is in reference to the Tangled story where Gothel kept her family separate from the rest of the world with terror. This scenario argues that terrorism and nationalism will win out over globalism.

Sleeping Beauty – “One day” is a spiritual subtext referring to a group believing in something more than the physical present. In this scenario oil shortages and identity theft forced everyone to go “low tech.” They adopted a more spiritual and communal society.

Gaston – “Kill the Best” refers to how Gaston takes over the town violently by both demonizing and attempting to kill any opposition. In this scenario, everyone listens to one tyrant. If anyone opposes, they are killed.


The quadrants above correspond to the quadrants on page 13.


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10. Scenario Title selected: “Genie”

Story:

Genie Scenario – “Your Wish is my command” [High Personalization – Low Regulation]

In the Genie logic space, the current trend of Prosumerism continues to rise. This ushers in what Richard B.

Fuller predicted as the knowledge economy.ix People develop innovative ways to deal with healthcare and

the environment – for free. x To paraphrase twitter co-founder Evan Williams, the easier it is to share and access information, the greater the level of goodness there is in the world.

Everyone becomes a producer and consumer of information. In the 20th century, media made us better at consuming through one-to-many communication. In the 21st century, media has made us better at creating and sharing through many-to-many communication.xi Micro-blogs like Twitter win out over old media outlets like CNN, FOX News, and MSNBC. Life Magazine is the first to capitalize on this horizon change.

While the old media tries to incorporate micro-blogs in their live shows, Life magazine becomes purely a curator of these micro-blogs. Life magazine becomes Life.com, going completely on-line. Smart glass, Tablets, and smart totems on street corners print “Life” 24/7, thereby eclipsing the old media.xii

Second Life, a virtual on-line grid, partners with Life to give everyone their own work avatar. This allows multi-national corporations to form virtual business teams all over the world. They meet in virtual reality and crowd source any and every product and project.xiii

Google and Bing compete with their “Knowledge Graph” and “Linked Data” software to unify all content. Apple continues to have more money in its treasury than the U.S. treasury.xiv As soon as it becomes the most valuable company in the world,xv Disney merges with Apple. iDisney makes a grab to acquire Bing as it is winning the unified content race. Google attempts to sue Bing on intellectual property rights.

During the biggest world court case in history, “Share Alike vs. Copyright,” Amazon continues to operate under the radar. The Amazon “cloud,” operating solely by user generated content, becomes the universal content leader. Amazon acquires Life and Second Life. After Bing wins their land mark case in 2025, copyright is declared illegal and a hindrance to freedom by the Secretary of Justice.

Second Life develops cosmetic brain surgery. This device replicates the brain’s 5 senses in the virtual world. By 2035, the knowledge economy has been replaced with the content economy. People barter and trade stories, experiences, and memories. You can virtually be anywhere at any time. Disney’s Space Resort partners with Amazon becoming the biggest virtual reality market on earth. Disney Space becomes the world’s largest space ship. It continues travelling space to bring new experiences to its customers.



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11. Cast that story line into another form (i.e., a memo, dialogue or news release set in the future, etc.) that illustrates how the future might actually appear in that scenario.

.

Tony: I think Bing did steal Google’s software.

Anne: Steal? How can it be stealing if they offer the software for free?

Chess: I’m kinda torn between the two concepts of share alike and copyright.

Tony: Hey what time were they supposed to make the ruling?

Chess: I think it’s supposed to be now.

Anne: I’m going to try to switch over and see.

[They click next]

We see a clean phone video stream of Bing lawyers smiling and patting Gates and others on the back.

The phone whips around as we hear off screen “This is a landmark case. Bing just won the case using open-source and share alike case studies. They even called into question the purpose of copyright – “

[They click back]

Chess: I can’t believe Gates is still alive.

Anne: Remember when they said Microsoft was dead? Wow.

Tony: I can’t believe they’re calling into question copyright.

[They click next]

Sec of Justice: For those of you who didn’t click next I’m appearing here to make an announcement. After the recent Bing v. Google ruling, the government has decided to declare Copyright illegal. For a longer briefing on this, you can click on our Facebook wall or upload the rulings from Wikipedia. Thank you. God Bless.

[They click back]

Chess: Did you just hear?

Anne: Yeah copyright is illegal.

Tony: remember this moment y’all. This is huge.

Chess: No, I was talking about the iDisney and Amazon partnership. They’re now the world leader of content. Today intellectual property died. The future is experience.

Anne: Anyone else going to the concert tonight?

Tony: Yeah, I’ll be there.

Chess: Just send me the highlights. I’m sleepy. Laters...

[They click next]


Airtime.com is a live video chat format in association with Facebook. It is continually being re-tooled.

The initial difference between this and Skype is that clicking next could send you to someone outside of your social graph.

Eventually this may be used as switching channels of live real-time interviews.

That is to say, I’m live chatting with my friends and I want more info on the subject we’re discussing. If I click next, I’ll get linked to someone documenting/reporting on the issue.

In this scenario it is a landmark court case: Bing v. Google.

The following is a live, Chatroulette-style, 2025 Airtime stream.


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WDC S.W.O.T. Analysis

and

Strategic Implications

12. Describe the strategic implications (S.W.O.T. analysis below) for your clients’ focal issue (point #1), in view of your selected (point #9-10) long-term scenario.

1. WDC is among the most popular brand names in the world. They are ranked among the top 10 global brands.xvi

2. They have high operation costs. The poor working conditions in factories around the world could pose a huge PR problem as people become more globally aware. And their top management changes often.

3. They show potential to continue marketing in untapped countries. App gaming programs and UGC (user generated content) promises to reduce costs for production in the future. Expanding resorts and parks to include virtual rides promises more Disney themed attractions.

4. More culture clashes in the future could erupt. Nationalism and terrorism could break out all over the world. Disney also faces steep competition from Paramount and Universal.



Scenario Planning: Key Characteristics

A methodology for strategy development useful for organisations, programmes or projects acting in a highly dynamic environment taking complex and often risky decisions

Provides rigour as well as opportunities to draw upon the creativity of those involved, resulting in new views and interpretations on important external developments

Typically involves the development of visual representations of possible futures

Creative yet structured approach is popular with marketing managers, programme managers and product developers that are looking for new markets, ideas, services or projects.

For more, see the on page 28.

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Key Steps to Scenario Planning

13. Describe what you learned about the future that you did not know, understand or realize before you did this exercise.

We learned successful ways to plan for the future.

Ten Tips for Successful Scenarios

1. Stay focused2. Keep it simple3. Keep it interactive4. Plan to plan and allow enough time5. Don't settle for a simple high, medium and

low6. Avoid probabilities or 'most likely' plots7. Avoid drafting too many scenarios8. Invent catchy names for the scenarios9. Make the decision makers own the

scenarios10. Budget sufficient resources for communicating the scenariosxvii

...and some traps to avoid

Don't treat scenarios as forecasts Don't construct scenarios based on too simplistic a difference - such as optimistic and pessimistic Make the scenarios global enough in scope Ensure you focus the scenarios in areas of potential impact on the enterprise Treat scenarios as an informational or instructional tool rather than for participative learning and/or

direct strategy formation Ensure adequate process for engaging management teams in the scenario planning process Don't stint on the imaginative stimulus in the scenario design Use experienced, or at least well-briefed, facilitator(s)



http://www.jiscinfonet.ac.uk/tools/scenario-planning/potential

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So far, this report has covered steps 1-4. It will now delve into steps 5 and 6.


RECAP


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Test Options

Identify and discuss potential implications and impacts of scenarios.

This SWOT graph below illustrates how to potentially ‘wind tunnel’ some of the major threats.

A. With your high brand recognition and gaming partnerships, you can create API space themed adventures.

B. Expand your global heath and home furnishing missions to factories.

C. Use social media outlets and situational leadership to break down cultural divide. [On page 21-22, I will elaborate on this as a wind tunnel exercise].

D. Work with NGOs to develop a Global Code of Conduct.



http://www.jiscinfonet.ac.uk/tools/pestle-swot

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Wind Tunnelling Quadrant C

A real potential threat in the near future is more war in the Middle East. This could cause nations all over to shrink back from a Global mindset and towards a more nationalist perspective. Terrorism could spark distrust. Oil reserves could be cut off. This could threaten our very livelihood, let alone investment plans in ‘Disney Space.’

While this has potential to shake up our Disney’s futures model, Disney has the ability to weather through these culture clash storms.

They learned from the mirror trap in Euro Disney.xviii Now they hire native marketing managers to work within their overseas companies. There’s also a situational leadership approach that can be applied to different cultures.

Global leaders should listen and adapt as they engage with different cultures.xix Doing this “enables all members … to more effectively understand the basis of their own behaviour and more meaningfully and successfully enhance relationships with one another.” xx Hersey and Blanchard, pioneers of situational leadership, have divided cultural environments into “four distinct categories of directive and supportive behaviours.”xxi There method works on both a local and global scale.xxii

Where a culture rests on the context scale above determines the best approach. Ting-Toomey and Kurogi’s ‘face framework’ serves as a coherent counterpart to the Hersey and Blanchard categories. Ting-Toomey has created several variations of this model but they all essentially represent the same four faces.xxiii While Ting-Toomey and Kurogi use four categories to describe these high and low-context culturesxxiv, Hersey and Blanchard use four categories to describe how global leaders should best approach these context cultures.

The more face-giving cultures defend and support the other person’s need for inclusion. Face-giving cultures have a collective mindset and desire defined roles that will include everyone. A telling approach to leadership

complements this culture. Face-assertion focuses more on the individual’s desire to have a role in the group.



Parables TodaySome individuals in the culture may feel like outsiders. This leadership will use a selling approach to reassure them that they belong. xxv

Face-saving cultures fight for other people to have freedom and space. This culture, often found in the West, requires a more participatory approach. These leaders do not involve themselves in the day-to-day tasks. A hands-off approach focuses more on bringing out the skills of the group through “listening, praising, asking for input, and giving feedback.”xxvi

Face-restoration ranks the lowest among the context cultures. In this culture, each individual fights for more autonomy. Leaders in this culture take more of a delegating approach. At this point the leader lets his followers “run their own show”xxvii because the workers have a crystal clear understanding of the goals.

Social media methods are currently at work to prevent these kinds of nationalist scenarios.xxviii The social media strategies Disney has access to could also bridge the institutionalized enmity.xxix But even if the political leaders attempt to black out forms of social media diplomacy, sources like twitter have created work around software for offline diplomacy between countries.xxx In the case that none of these acts of diplomacy

work, Disney and Playdom could potentially work on social gamming projectsxxxi that will discover renewable forms of energy that surpass the value of oil.



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Action Plan

What should we do (or not do) to be successful in this scenario?

To make strategic preparations for the ‘Genie’ scenario we should use long tail transmedia storytelling. This way, the story worlds that Disney currently controls can be expanded to such an extent that second life avatars can be created for hard core fans to enjoy. The Avengers is a great example. They used several of these marketing tactics to get people in theatre during their historical box-office week end. But they also need to continue spinning that story off into rebooted comics, video games, fan-fiction, and Netflix Avengers Series. For example, their Avengers Assemble cartoon was released to Netflix before the film. But it appears the series only served as an animated version of the live action movies that have already come out.

The series should have continued. There should still be new episodes playing the same time the movie is out. They should also have more fan-fiction involvement, creating potentially new characters that could appear in the Avengers sequel. There should be ARGs for the sequel. These strategies could launch a deeper Thor universe for Disney Space. And then there’s Space Mountain, Buzz Light-year, and Wall-E.



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Another strategy for the ‘Genie’ scenario would be the Blue Ocean Strategy. Nadler & Tushman argue that the last source of competitive advantage lies in the organizational design.xxxii Keidel makes the case that by seeing organizational patterns, one can prevent competitive disadvantage and leverage a competitive advantage in said organization’s favour.xxxiii Kim and Mauborgne’s ‘Blue Ocean Strategy’ shows how innovation oftentimes supersedes the so called competitive advantage.xxxiv

If Amazon is truly the future leader of content, this strategy will benefit Disney in two ways. Disney and Viacom have been competing with each other to grab shares of the mobile gaming market. Nick/Viacom launched addictinggames.com for the iphone. Disney also launched mobile games for iphone, driod, blackberry and Java Brew. Instead of competing in a flooded market, Disney could work with the new Amazon Smartphonexxxv and not only capture a new market place but also begin a long-term partnership with them.



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The picture above metaphorically represents three dials or gears on a giant wheel of innovation and creativity. If you speed up those dials of crowd, light, and desire, the wheel of creativity and innovation turns faster.

Although bigger crowds bring in more innovation, the crowds are mostly composed of other kinds of people. Each person represents an invaluable component to the process. Anderson says the light speaks to the willingness to share and open up your project in these social media outlets. This is called liquid networking.xxxvi Once the sharing reaches large social media audiences, it is either ignored or applauded. Positive feedback dials up the desire.

People continue to share out of a desire for global recognition from the crowd of commenters, trend-spotters, and cheerleaders. It then becomes a perpetual, self-fuelling machine. It is also a self-cleaning machine because the bad ideas lose the crowd and light or quickly collaborate and improve. This is becoming the new medium for both indie and mainstream film companies. Cisco estimates that by as soon as 2013, 90% of all IP traffic will be video sharing.xxxvii

Jonathan Chu is a filmmaker and screenwriter best known for directing dance films like Step Up 2 and 3. What he noticed online was the CAI method working with dancers on YouTube. Kids in Japan were watching dance videos and building on them. People in Detroit and California would then watch these and remix them. Chu called this a global laboratory. He eventually recruited the most innovative artists on YouTube and formed LXD. LXD became one of the most popular a web series ever launched on Hulu. Hulu is partially owned by the Walt Disney Company.



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They could use this same method for developing characters and stories through social gaming and fan-fiction. Through crowd-sourcing, Disney could create new space themed story worlds for Disney Dream and eventually Disney Space.

In 2011-12 Disney joined the cruise lines as an expansion of the Disney Parks and Resorts. They developed Disney Dream and Disney Fantasy. The interior cabins of the Dream already have ‘virtual portholes’ that allow voyagers to see action outside of the ship, as well as a few beloved Disney characters floating by the window. The ship also features a high-tech teen lounge. This sets the stage for similar virtual scenarios with the Space Disney experience.



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Moving Forward

We must always bear in mind that scenarios do not represent truths - they are based on what we know about what is happening. We must continue to monitor trends. According to Mintzberg “when companies understand the difference between planning and strategic thinking, they can get back to what the strategy-making process should be.” xxxviii Today, instead of looking straight ahead, companies also pay attention to peripheral S.T.E.E.P. developments.xxxix Many companies are still late at picking up on the signals. For example, Microsoft missed out on open software and GE missed out on LED traffic lights. xl The privatization of space travel has emerged as one of those peripheral developments where Disney’s passions could profitably intersect with their current areas of capabilities. This investment could potentially make Disney sustainable in the distant future.



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Links

JISC Users and Innovation Programme, [ http://www.jisc.ac.uk/whatwedo/programmes/programme_users_and_innovation.aspx ].

JISC Tools for Scenario Planning





http://www.jisc.ac.uk/whatwedo/programmes/programme_users_and_innovation.aspx

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Sources Consulted

Peter Schwartz, The Art of the Long View (New York: Doubleday, 1991).

Jenny Beery; Esther Eidinow; Nancy Murphy (Editors) “The Mont Fleur Scenarios.” Deeper News (Vol 7, No 1. 1992)

Gaston Berger, Phénoménologies du Temps et Prospectives (Paris: Presse Universitaires de France, 1964).

Peter Bishop; Andy Hines; Terry Collins,“The Current State of Scenario Development.” Foresight (March 2007): 5-25.

Bertrand de Jouvenel, The Art of Conjecture (New York: Basic Books, 1967).

Hugues de Jouvenel, “An Invitation to Foresight.” Futuribles Perspectives, (Special Issue 2004).

J Diffenbach, “Corporate Environmental Analysis in Large US Corporations.” Long Range Planning (16, 3 1984): 107-116.

Liam Fahey; Robert M. Randall (eds), Learning from the Future: Competitive Foresight Scenarios.(New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1998).

Michel Godet, Scenarios and Strategic Management (London: Butterworth Scientific, 1987).

Mchel Godet, Creating Futures (London: Economica, 2006).

Herman Kahn; A. J. Weiner, The Year 2000: A Framework for Speculation on the Next Thirty Years (New York: Macmillan, 1967).

Elzbieta Krawczyk; John Ratcliffe, “Imagine Ahead, Plan Backwards” Futures Academy, Dublin Institute of Technology (January 2005).

Pentti Malaska; Ilkka Virtanen, “Theory of Futuribles” Futura (February 2005): 10-28.

Joe Willmore, “Scenario Planning: Creating Strategy for Uncertain Times” Information Outlook (September 2001).



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Endnotes



i Michael Porter, “The Five Competitive Forces That Shape Strategy.” www.hbr.org January, 2008, http://hbr.org/2008/01/the-five-competitive-forces-that-shape-strategy/ar/1

ii Thomas Chermack, Scenario Planning in Organizations (San Francisco: Berret-Koehler, 2011), 103.

iii Michael Beer, Higher Ambition (Boston: Harvard Business Review Press, 2011)166-167, compare with Bulke, CEO of Nestle, on page 98.

iv Thomas Chermack, Scenario Planning in Organizations (San Francisco: Berret-Koehler, 2011), 104.

v Gail Tverberg, “The Reality is, Our Economy Runs on Oil and We Need More” www.businessinsider.com 7 February, 2012, http://articles.businessinsider.com/2012-02-07/home/31011725_1_crude-oil-oil-prices-oil-consumption

vi George S. Day; Paul J. Shoemaker, Peripheral Vision (Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 2006), 33. Also see Matthew R. Simmons, Twilight in the Desert (New York: John Wiley & Sons, 2005).

vii Ian Jeffries, Economic Developments in Contemporary China (New York: Taylor and Francis, 2011), 499.

viii Mats Lindgren; Hans Banhold, Scenario Planning (New York: Palgrave Mamillan, 2003), 117.

ix Richard B. Fuller, Critical Path (New York: St. Martin’s Press, 1981), 200 – 202.

x Gabe Zichermann; Christopher Cunningham, Gamification by Design (Sebatopol: O’ Reilly Media, 2011).

xi Clay Shirky, Cognitive Surplus (New York: Penguin Press, 2010), See ‘A New Resource’.

xii Keith Stuart, “Smart Glass, Xbox 360 and the battle for the Connected Livingroom” www.guardian.co.uk 5 June, 2012, http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/gamesblog/2012/jun/05/smartglass-xbox-news

xiii Haya El Nasser, “The Office is Shrinking as Tech Creates Workplace Everywhere” www.usatoday.com 5 June, 2012, http://www.usatoday.com/money/workplace/story/2012-06-05/tech-creates-workplace-everywhere/55405518/1

xiv “Apple Now has More Money than the US.” www.straitstimes.com 30 Jul, 2011, http://www.straitstimes.com/BreakingNews/TechandScience/Story/STIStory_696512.html

xv Ben Parr, “Apple is 50 Billion away from Becoming the World’s Most Valuable Company.” www.mashable.com 20 Jul, 2011, http://mashable.com/2011/07/20/apple-exxon/

xvi Jacquelyn Smith, “The World’s Most Reputable Companies” www.forbes.com 7 June, 2012, http://www.forbes.com/sites/jacquelynsmith/2012/06/07/the-worlds-most-reputable-companies/2/

xvii Jay Ogilvy; Peter Schwartz, “Plotting Your Scenarios.” Learning from the Future (New York: Wiley, 1998), 77-80.

xviii Saj-niole Joni, “Three Traps Facing New Global Leaders.” www.hbr.org. 7 November, 2011, http://blogs.hbr.org/cs/2011/11/three_traps_facing_new_global.html

xix Ricky W. Griffin, Fundamentals of Management (Princeton: Cengage Learning, 2007), 334.

xx Mika Gabrielsson, John Darling, Hannu Seristo, “Transformational Team-Building Across Cultural Boundaries” Team Performance Management (October 2008), 238.

xxi Paul Hersey; Ken Blanchard, Leadership and the One Minute Manager (New York: William Morrow, 1999).

xxii Robert N. Lussier; Christopher F. Achua, Leadership: Theory, Application, Skill Development (Cincinnati: South-Western College Pub., 2001), 186.

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xxiii Stella Ting-Toomey, “A Matrix of Face: An Updated Face Negotiation Theory.” Theorizing About Intercultural Communication (Thousand Oaks: Sage Publishing, 2005), 71-92.

xxiv Stella Ting-Toomey; A. Kurogi, “Facework Competence in Intercultural Conflict.” International Journal of Intercultural Relations (1998), 187-225.

xxv Peter G. Northouse, Leadership Theory and Practice (Thousand Oaks: Sage Publications, 2009), 91.

xxvi William A Callahan, Contingent States (Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press, 2004), 142-144.

xxvii Select Knowledge, Managing Teams (University of Cambridge: Select Knowledge Limited, 2001), 73.

xxviii Alexander Marquardt, “Israel Loves Iran Campaign Gains Force” www.abcnews.go.com 23 March, 2012, http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/headlines/2012/03/israel-loves-iran-campaign-gains-force/

xxix Trita Parsi, A Single Roll of the Dice (New Haven: Yale University Press, 2012), See Trapped in a Paradigm of Enmity.

xxx Tom Krazit, “Google, Twitter build Speak to Tweet for Egyptians.” www.new.cnet.com 31 January, 2011, http://news.cnet.com/8301-30684_3-20030144-265.html

xxxi Jane McGonigal, Reality is Broken (New York: Penguin Press, 2011), See: Gamer’s Mass Participation.

xxxii David A Nadler; Michael L Tushman, Competing by Design (New York: Oxford University Press, 1997), See chapter 12, ‘Lesson in Design.’

xxxiii Robert W. Keidel, Seeing Organizational Patterns (San Francisco: Berrett-Koehler, 1995), See page 16 under ‘Three ways to fail.’

xxxiv W Chan Kim; Renee Mauborgne, Blue Ocean Strategy (Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 2005).

xxxv JP Mangalindan, “Is Amazon Making a Smartphone?” www.tech.fortune.cnn.com 18 November, 2011, http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2011/11/18/amazon-making-smartphone/

xxxvi Steven Johnson, Where Good Ideas Come From (New York: Riverhead Books, 2010).

xxxvii Erick Schonfeld, “Cisco: By 2013 Video Will Be 90 Percent of All Consumer IP Traffic.” www.techcrunch.com 9 June, 2009, http://techcrunch.com/2009/06/09/cisco-by-2013-video-will-be-90-percent-of-all-consumer-ip-traffic-and-64-percent-of-mobile/

xxxviii Henry Mintzberg, “The Rise and Fall of Strategic Planning.” Harvard Business Review (January-February 1994): 3.

xxxix Bill Ralston, Ian Wilson, The Scenario Planning Handbook (Mason: Thomas South-Western, 2006), 89.

xl George S. Day; Paul J. Shoemaker, Peripheral Vision (Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 2006), 120-126.

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Disney Space - A Scenario Planning Report (1)

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