Discussion of “The Mortality Effects of Retirement: Evidence from Social Security Eligibility at...

Discussion of

“The Mortality Effects of Retirement: Evidence from Social Security Eligibility at Age 62”

Maria Fitzpatrick and Timothy Moore

Andrew Goodman-BaconUC Berkeley/Vanderbilt University

Summary

22.

53

3.5

44.

5M

illio

ns o

f Birt

hs

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970Birth Year

Post-WWII Spike in Births

Source: Finkelstein and Williams (NBER), Lleras-Muney.

White Male Deaths by Age

55 57 59 61 63 65 67 6910000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

22000

24000

200520092013

Dea

ths

Source: Vital Statistics MCOD Files

Should understate discontinuity

Heterogeneity

• Men vs. Women• <HS, HS, >HS• Unmarried vs. Married• White vs. Nonwhite

• Why?– Different “treatment” (checkable)– Heterogeneous response (speculative)

HRS Evidence• Condition on SS at 62 – Good: this are the “treated”– Bad: selected sample w.r.t. changes in LFP– Bad: not a comparable (population) “ITT”

• 2 year changes– For deaths (F2): jump at 62 is 1580 deaths, but diff

b/w 61 and 63 is ~8,000 deaths.

• Use 2005-2013 ACS with birth quarter

0.1

.2.3

.4.5

60 61 62 63 64 65Age in Quarters

<HS HS >HS

Share of White Men with SS Income, by Education

0.1

.2.3

.40

dss


White Men White Women

Share of Low-Education Whites with SS Income, by Sex

0.1

.2.3

.40

dss


White Men Nonwhite Men

Share of Low-Education Men with SS Income, by Race

What is 62 an instrument for?

1. SS claiming (but for all groups).


1. SS claiming (but for all groups).2. Is it insurance?

Share of White Men with Health Insurance, by Education-.0

20

.02

.04

.06


<HS HS >HS

-.02

0.0

2.0

4.0

6



Share of Low-Education Whites with Health Insurance, by Sex

-.1-.0

50

.05



Share of Low-Education Men with Health Insurance, by Race


1. SS claiming (but for all groups).2. Is it insurance? No


1. SS claiming (but for all groups).2. Is it insurance? No3. Is it income?

-400

0-2

000

020

00


<HS HS >HS

Average Income, White Men by Education

-300

0-2

000

-100

00

1000

2000



Average Income, Low-Education Whites by Sex

-300

0-2

000

-100

00

1000

2000



Average Income, Low-Education Men by Race


1. SS claiming (but for all groups).2. Is it insurance? No3. Is it income? No


1. SS claiming (but for all groups).2. Is it insurance? No3. Is it income? No 4. Is it LFP?

-.05

0.0

5.1

.15

.2


<HS HS >HS

Share of White Men Out of the Labor Force, by Education

-.05

0.0

5.1

.15

.2



Share of Low-Education Whites Out of the Labor Force, by Sex

-.10

.1.2



Share of Low-Education Men Out of the Labor Force, by Race


1. SS claiming (but for all groups).2. Is it insurance? No3. Is it income? No4. Is it LFP? Maybe

a. Matches gender and race (different treatment), but not education patterns (heterogeneity?)

b. Compare to OAA (Fetter and Lockwood 2014)?

Why?• Displacement increases mortality (Sullivan and von

Wachter 2009)– But it is driven by earnings losses

• Social Security increases within-month mortality (Evans and Moore 201)– But why should cyclical mechanisms matter here? – Check day of month pre/post 62?

• Economic activity increases mortality (Evans and Moore 2011, Ruhm)– So why should moving to NILF increase deaths?

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