Disasters Are Space-Time TrickstersGus Koehler, Ph.D., CEO, Time Structures, Inc.Sacramento, Calif.

Preplan to Establish OrderExisting systems need to be strengthened so that they can expand their existing routines and roles

Standard training for all responders to ICS

Agreements between multiple agencies to resolve resource sharing and scope of decision making

Measureable benchmarks and standards established

Supplies and logistics systems identified and tested

Communications

Time Structures

Disaster Strategy Involves Cunning in organizing the Response to the Trickery of the EventTiming: first see the overall background timing imposed by the disaster.

Applicable timing is results from appreciating the fast and slow timings of critical parts.

Cunning and Trickery: To trick someone is to destroy their boundaries. A disaster breaks the boundary of the day-to-day life of the city and of the responders planned strategy

Response cunning is responding to emergent opportunities and using the disasters timing to create a new response and a controlled disaster

Time Structures

Time Structures

The structure andBoundaries ofThe City Are Redefined inUnexpected Ways

Adjustments to Transportation,Communication, and InformationTechnologies Social Consequences andPolicy IssuesDonald G. JanelleCenter for Spatially Integrated Social ScienceUniversity of California, SantaSpace-Time Adjustments to Transportation, Communication, and InformationTechnologies Social Consequences and Policy Issues. Donald G. JanelleCenter for Spatially Integrated Social Science, University of California, Santa BarbaraUniversity of Southern California 6 March 2002People Move Around the City in Varying Patterns by Time of Day Leading to Different Patterns of Evacuation

Time Structures

Time Structures

Disaster Can Move in Space TimeTime Structures

A Moving DisasterOn the Sacramento River: Cantara Metam-Sodium Train SpillTime Structures

Sacramento Metamsodium Cantara Train River SpillTime Structures

The Trickster LaughsPlan for when space-time events are likely to occur and for their profile (equipment, supplies, personnel); expect disruption

Practice on paper and in real time; assume the trained people wont show up

Predict when parts will fail; practice for failure

Time Structures

Develop personal trust and confidence in fellows; they will get tired and be replaced by unknowns

Combination of anticipatory, bench-marked and tested top down structure with cunningly developed self-organizing and emergent response from the bottom up

Knowledgeable, cunning managers and responders with timely access to the right information and resources is the pre-disaster training and organizing goal

Within 90 minutes following an event, 50-80% of the acute casualties will likely arrive atthe closest medical facilities. Other hospitals outsidethe area usually receive few or no casualties.The less injured casualties often leave the sceneunder their own power and go to the nearesthospital. As a result they are not triaged at thescene by Emergency Medical Services (EMS)and they may arrive to the hospital before themost injured. On average, it takes 3-6 hoursfor casualties to be treated in the emergencydepartment (ED) before they are admitted tothe hospital or released.Ambulance strike teams must be able tobe rapidly mobilized and be self-sufficient forat least 24 hours under a scenario that involvesmass casualties. Additional, mobile medical resourcesshould be capable of response andtreatment during the first 8 hours of a large eventwith significant casualties. A hospital must alsobe able to increase its capacity within a shortperiod of time. When trying to determine howmany casualties a hospital can expect after amass trauma event, it is important to rememberthat casualties present quickly and that approximatelyhalf of all casualties will arrive at the hospitalwithin a 1-hour window. This 1-hour windowbegins when the first casualty arrives atthe hospital. In order to predict the total numbernumberof casualties a hospital can expect, doublethe number of casualties the hospital receivesin the first hour.Oakland freeway