Disaster Preparedness and Need Assessment in the Aftermath of Floods in Pakistan (2010)

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Disaster Preparedness and Need Assessment in the Aftermath of Floods

in Pakistan (2010)

Disaster Preparedness and Need Assessment in the Aftermath of Floods

in Pakistan (2010)

Presented by: M. Tariq Yousafzai

[email protected]

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The starting of chain of events

Monsoon rains of summer 2010 were heavy and lasted for three months (monsoon region)

Climate change (conference in Copenhagen)According to UN (August), the number of people

affected by these massive floods could exceed the combined total of three mega disasters

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Three Reports have emergedPakistan Floods 2010- Preliminary Damage

and Need assessment (ADB and WB)

Civil Society Rapid Appraisal of Flood Damage and Need Assessment (Rural Development Policy Institute, the Pakistan Debt Cancellation Campaign and Oxfam)

The UN prepared an additional report entitled, “The Pakistan Floods Emergency Response Plan”

Continued…...

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The Role of Government and NGOs

•Government

•Foreign Agencies

NGOs

Exaggerating loses to receive large amounts of foreign aid

Underestimate the damage due to “restricted access”

Underestimate the damage due to “restricted access”

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For example

• First,

• There was no mention of causalities

•Second,

•Then came a report of hundreds

• Third,

• Then thousands and within a week the number rose to scores of thousands

Announcements made after 2005 earthquake

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The actual statistics were…

7500 thousand killed and similar number injured.10 thousand school buildings were damaged or

destroyed with around 850 teachers and 18000 students died

Around 65% of the 800 hundred health facilities were destroyed or badly damaged

Over 400,000 thousand homes were damaged or destroyed

www.themegallery.com6

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The impact of infrastructure

The impact was felt around 100km75% of the single story buildings (stone made)

could not stand the shocksQuality of mortar very poor


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Cyclone SIDR-Bangladesh

Bangladesh is a very poor country with a per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) that takes it 196 our of 229 countries in the world


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SIDR continued..

Now the Satellite Surveillance and computing model helps to warning some 72 hours in advance

Use of Symbols is important as majority of population living in CHARS is illiterate

44 thousand volunteers help in first aid, post cyclone security, destruction damage assessment and distribution of relief material

Warning fatigue—underestimation of and under-preparedness for the danger


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Coming back to Floods continued..

There was a large variable in damage and rehabilitation assessment ranging from $1 billion to $ 7 billion

Flood estimates of 2010The estimates or assessments of the damages

caused by the recent floods also vary greatlyFor example $ 8 billion to $ 20 billion or even

moreAccording to World Bank ($10 Billion)

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Estimates continued…. 2010 floods

ADB seem on the lower side due to original costs having been used, rather than the inflated rates (The solution to this would be discussed during the seminar)

What we see is that Pakistani Government lacks foresight and the ability to foresee a disaster and plans for urgent response.

Everything is done on an ad hoc and Day to Day basis What about voluminous reports????

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SUGGESTIONS

Pakistan military should e involvedLand and revenue departments should be

involved in need assessmentThe reports by WB and ADB do not reflect the

true situation as their methodologies are scientific but data is not

The report CIVIL SOCIETY RAPID APPRAISAL OF FLOOD DAMAGES and need assessment do not account for the province of KPK

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Suggestions continued…

Three groups overlooked are (a) women sufferings (b) minority groups (c) laborers and peasants

On the other hand the Ministry of Finance estimates about $30 billion

Government of Pakistan estimated $43 billionEducated guess might be in the region of $20

billion in terms of estimates

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Salient features of various reports

According to ADB/WB the damage of crops property and infrastructure is equal to $9.5 billion

Ministry of finance estimates $30 billion Government of Pakistan ignoring the ministry of finance estimates,

indicate a figure of 43 billion USD (fearing lesser aid) Punjab was hardest hit (crops) According to UN estimates the floods affected and displaced 20

million people, with 6 million children, 20,000 people lost their lives, six million people are homeless (DSSORAY)

According to Govt of Pakistan 724,000 houses have been destroyed (KP 42,000) a total of 97 villages were affected in Peshawar, 105 in Nowshera, 80 around Charsada, and 182 in Mardan district

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Continued…

According to the agricultural officials quoted in WB report floods affected 17 million acres of agricultural land, destroyed half a million tons of wheat and 2 million bales of cotton

About 100,000 head of livestock perished overnight

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Continued..

Floods have pushed Pakistan back by 50 years in terms of infrastructure, electricity and communications

In KPK alone 112 schools, 201 hotels and 137 bridges were swept away

DISCUSSION QUESTIONS(1) The central issue is that of credibility of the assessing

organization?

(2) Do the Government has any other option but to trust and believe the ADB/WB

(3) Disaster management is a well developed and complicated

science that WB and ADB are supposed to have mastered, especially in view of their experience in dealing with calamities learning from experience, as discussed in course outlines)

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Continued…

World Bank has worked with

(a) Bhola cyclone in 1970 Former East Pakistan (b) Indian ocean Tsunami

(c) Haiti earthquake last year

(d) Cyclone Nargis, the Kohistan avalanche

(5) In order to challenge the WB/ADB assesment which is based on scientific methodology, the Pakistani Government and NGOs, would have to evolve a credible alternative technology of damage-and need-assessment?

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Concluding remarks

The WB/ADB “Damage and assessment” report is based on scientific methodology, but lacks EXTENSIVE AND DETAILED INFORMATION as a result an estimate of $10 billion is far lower than a realistic actual damage.

A causal factor in the lower estimate is probably due to the use of historic costs (no provision for positive depreciation and accumulation) ignoring inflation.

For example a house costing Rs100,000 in the 1980s would now be about 2 billion to rebuild

A more realistic estimate figure would be $ 20 billion

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Continued

It is suggested that the involvement of the staff of land and revenue departments (patwaris and tehsildars) and Army personnel posted in the area can give a more realistic assesment.

They know the people of the area and they usually have the local resources to do the job.

Any other interesting findings so far..????

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Lets do things in a better way

Disaster Preparedness and Need Assessment in the Aftermath of Floods in Pakistan (2010)

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