Digital Revolution a Major Transformation toward …“Doing More with Less” within Planetary...
24
Nebojsa Nakicenovic Digital Revolution a Major Transformation toward The World in 2050 Big Data and Systems Analysis Workshop, Wodak Room, IIASA, Laxenburg – Monday, 24 February 2020
Transcript of Digital Revolution a Major Transformation toward …“Doing More with Less” within Planetary...
Nebojsa Nakicenovic
Digital Revolution a Major Transformation toward The World in 2050
Big Data and Systems Analysis Workshop, Wodak Room, IIASA, Laxenburg – Monday, 24 February 2020
2020 #2Nakicenovic
The World is at “Crossroads”Explosive development transgressing
planetary boundaries but many left behind
Global economy increased 100 fold, energy 50 times and CO2 30 times
Temperature increase over 1oC, about 8 million die due to indoor and regional air pollution
Achievement of 2030 Agenda and the Paris Agreement would bring multiple co-benefits for people and the planet
2020 #3Nakicenovic
Holocene, Paris &Tipping Elements
Adapted from Schellnhuber et al. 2016
Source: John Schellnhuber et al. 2016
2020 #4NakicenovicThe 2019 projection is based on preliminary data and modelling.
Source: CDIAC; Friedlingstein et al 2019; Global Carbon Budget 2019
Global Fossil CO2 Emissions
Uncertainty is ±5% for one standard deviation (IPCC “likely” range)
Global fossil CO2 emissions: 36.6 ± 2 GtCO2 in 2018, 61% over 1990 Projection for 2019: 36.8 ± 2 GtCO2, 0.6% higher than 2018 (range ‐0.2% to 1.5%)
Fossil CO2 emissions will likely be more than 4% higher in 2019 than the year of the Paris Agreement in 2015
Paris
Kyoto
Rockström, Gaffney, Rogelj, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017
“Carbon Law”
Rockström, Gaffney, Rogelj, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017
“Carbon Law”
Rockström, Gaffney, Rogelj, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017
“Carbon Law”
2020 #8Nakicenovic
Denmark
Finland
France
GermanyJapan
New Zealand
Norway
Sweden
United KingdomUnited States
y = 2.2x - 0.27R² = 0.76
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40Inequality
(1985 Gini Coefficient)
Intergenerational earnings elasticity
The Great Gatsby Curve
United States(2010)
y = 2.2x - 0.27R² = 0.76
United States (2010 Gini)
.
The Great Gatsby CurveHigher income inequality associated with lower intergenerational mobility
Source: Corak OECD, 2011; Kruger CEA, 2012
2020 #9Nakicenovic
UN DESA and UNFCCC conference on synergies between the SDGs and the Paris Agreement – 1-3 April 2019 C
Oran Young, Program on Governance for Sustainable Development Bren School, UCSB http://www.gsdprogram.org
Interplay and the SDGs
• Fundamentally, there are two agendas embedded in the SDGs– We can call them (i) the human security agenda
and (ii) the planetary boundaries agenda• The challenge is to make these agendas
synergistic rather than competitive– Consider the case of Africa and the issues of
demographic trends and food security under the impacts of climate change
2018 #11Nakicenovic
Using knowledge on interlinkages to exploit synergies and minimize trade-offs in the policy process can contribute to overall policy coherence
Interlinkages among the SDGs
• Survey of existing publications• A tool to visualize the cumulated
interlinkages from a set of publications
• Meta analysis of the main studies on interlinkages
interlinkages among goals and targets
Source: Miola, 2019
2018 #12Nakicenovic
Human capacity Demography &
Health
SDGs:Prosperity
Social InclusionSustainability
Decarbonization& Energy
Consumption& Production
Smart Cities & Mobility
Food, Biosphere & Water
Digital Revolution
Six Major Transformations (TWI2050.org)
2018 #13Nakicenovic
Digital Revolution – ConvergenceArtificial Intelligence, Deep Learning, Big Data, Robotics,Nanotechnology, Quantum Computing, Synthetic BiologyThe Internet of Things, 3D Printing, Block Chain,Autonomous Vehicles, Augmented Reality
2018 #14Nakicenovic
3D-printed vascularized-engineered heart at Tel Aviv University using human tissue, vessels and other biological materials (Wieley-VCH, 2019)
PilCamswallobable-capculetechnogy(cs.cmu.edu)
Who is responsible for authnomous weapons?(https://futureoflife.org/2016/11/21/peter-asaro-autonomous-weapons/)
Robotic exoskeleton that will enable paraplegics to do the unthinkable or make heavy tools feel weightless (https://eksobionics.com/eksoworks/)
2018 #15Nakicenovic
Augmented reality is an interactive experience of a real-world environment where the objects that reside in the real world are enhanced by computer-generated perceptual information
“Futuristic surgery” that helped young woman become first to have lung cancer removed by Da Vinci robot by Intuitive Surgical
2020 #16Nakicenovic
1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 20500%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
OECD
Non-OECD
Technology Diffusion Compared(access to cellphones)
CellphonesΔt = 13 yrs
CellphonesΔt = 11 yrs
Source: Grubler, 2016
2020 #17Nakicenovic
Impact of IC Technology Convergence
Source: Grubler et al., 2018
2020 #18Nakicenovic Source: Gartner, 2017
2020 #19Nakicenovic
1850 19501900 2000 2050
Source: After Granger Morgan, 2013
Transformational Change
2018 #20Nakicenovic
Vision: Sustainable Future for All
→ Growing number of actors of change:
• green businesses• cities• civil society• science• IGOs (UN etc.)
→ 2030: Achievement of SDGs
→ New values and norms; new morality and ethics
Source: After WBGU, 2011
Legitimacy of BAU eroding
→ 2050: Sustainability transformation
The World in 2050 (TWI2050.com)“Doing More with Less” within Planetary Boundaries
2030 2050
Tran
sfor
mat
ion
toSu
stai
nabi
lity
2018 #21Nakicenovic
Tran
sfor
mat
ion
to S
ustia
nana
bilit
y
Source: After WBGU, 2011
The World in 2050 (TWI2050.com)
2030 2050
Digitalization for Sustainability
Sustainable Digitalized Societies
Future of Homo Digitalis?Tr
ansf
orm
atio
n to
Sust
aina
bilit
y
Source: After WBGU, 2019
2018 #22Nakicenovic
● A new era in human history is emerging! After Neolithic & Industrial, the Digital Revolution is the next era.
● Digitalization can enable a disruptive revolution toward a Digital Anthropocene – a quantum leap for civilization!
● The paradox of the Digital Anthropocene – digitalization essential for achieving the Six Major Transformations & is challenging the absorptive capacity of society.
● Build responsible knowledge societies capable of takingaction towards sustainability in the Digital Age –governance urgently needed in Digital Anthropocene!.
● There are only 10 years to 2030!
Provisional Key Messages
2020 #23Nakicenovic
Xenobot: world's first living, self-healing robots created from frog stem cells– they are less than a millimeter (0.1 millimeter) wide – small enough to travel inside human bodies. They can walk and swim, survive for weeks without food and work together in groups. The cells were cut and reshaped into specific "body forms" designed by a supercomputer – forms "never seen in nature," according to a news release from the University of Vermont.
