Diana Ürge-Vorsatz Department of Environmental Sciences and Policy,

Central European University

Vice Chair, WGIII, IPCC

8th International Conference on Energy and Environment of Residential Buildings

Wellington, November 21, 2018

2

Landslide media success

Stayed in top headline news of most international and national news media for at least 24 hours but often longer

Coverage all over the world In the first 48 hours, just what was recorded by IPCC:

Over 15,000 online and print articles

Often cover page story

Over 8 million hits

Over 4200 broadcasts

The quality and quantity of media coverage was completely unprecedented in IPCC history

Selected main questions asked in the report

Does 0.5°C difference matter?

Can warming still be capped at 1.5°C?

If yes, how?

Figure 3.7: Projected change number of hot days (10% warmest days) at 1.5°C global warming (left) and 2°C global 10 warming (right) compared to pre-industrial time period (1861-1880), and difference (below).

Understanding feasibility

4

Feasibility

no single answer Defined in this report: the capacity of a system as a whole to

achieve a specific outcome

Feasibility decomposed into: Geophysical

Technological

Economic

environmental-ecological

socio-cultural

institutional

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Where are we now? Since pre-industrial times, human activities have caused approximately 1°C of global warming.

• Already seeing consequences for people, nature and livelihoods

• At current rate, would reach 1.5°C between 2030 and 2052

• Past emissions alone do not commit the world to 1.5°C

5

Ashley Cooper / Aurora Photos

Updated figures on our remaining carbon budget (CB)

By 2017, humans depleted the CB by app 2200 GtCO2

current emissions are at app 42 GtCO2 per year

The choice of the measure of global temperature affects the estimated remaining carbon budget

Using global mean surface air temperature, as in AR5, gives an estimate of the remaining CB of 580 GtCO2 for a 50% probability, 420 GtCO2 for a 66% probability

using GMST gives estimates of 770 and 570 GtCO2, for 50% and 66% probabilities

At current rates of emissions, this gives us app. 10 – 18 year window to decarbonise our economies in order to stay within the carbon budget

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Emission Pathways and System Transitions Consistent with 1.5°C Global Warming

8

SPM3a| Global emissions pathway characteristics

SPM3b| Characteristics of four illustrative model pathways

SPM3b| Characteristics of four illustrative model pathways

SPM3b| Characteristics of four illustrative model pathways

What can we learn from the pathways?

Capping warming at 1.5C is feasible from a technological perspective

There are still choices in the pathways how we can get there

However, each pathway involves virtually all options (except BECCS or CCS), the difference is only in the emphasis on different options

All pathways peak global emissions in the next few years, and radically reduce emissions afterwards

The pathways have markedly different implications on sustainable development

Key characteristics of the pathways

• To limit warming to 1.5°C, CO2 emissions fall by about 45% by 2030 (from 2010 levels)

• To limit warming to 1.5°C, CO2 emissions would need to reach ‘net zero’ around 2050

• Reducing non-CO2 emissions would have direct and immediate health benefits

Compared to 20% for 2°C

Compared to around 2075 for 2°C

Gerhard Zwerger-Schoner / Aurora Photos

Greenhouse gas emissions pathways • Limiting warming to 1.5°C requires changes

on an unprecedented scale

Deep emissions cuts in all sectors A range of technologies

Behavioural changes

Increased and by and large redirected investment in low carbon options

Peter Essick / Aurora Photos

Costs

economy wide costs and benefits of limiting warming to 1.5°C. limited number of model studies report economy wide mitigation

costs

Such costs do not include the benefits of reduced climate change as well as synergies and trade-offs of mitigation

[these model studies project 1.5-2.7% (interquartile range) lower consumption in 2050 compared to 2°C pathways, which in turn project 1.4-3.7% lower consumption than in the

baseline

Consumption in the baseline underlying these estimates grows between 270-320% from 2010 to 2050.]

Necessary transitions • Pathways with no or limited overshoot show system changes

that are more rapid and pronounced over the next two decades than in 2°C pathways

• The rates of system changes have occurred in the past within specific sectors, technologies and spatial contexts, but there is no documented historic precedent for their scale

• The energy system transition that is required to limit global warming to 1.5°C is underway in many sectors and regions around the world

• The political, economic, social and technical feasibility of solar and wind energy and electricity storage has improved dramatically over the past few years,

• while that of nuclear energy and CCS have not shown

similar improvements.

9

Gerhard Zwerger-Schoner / Aurora Photos

Some facts on the energy system transition

In 2017, 64% of the world’s net additions of electric generating capacity were modern renewables (i.e. excluding hydroelectric dams of ≥50 MWe)

These passed nuclear power output in 2016 and a one trillion watts’ installed global capacity in mid-2017.

today’s PV capacity is >40 x IEA’s 2002 forecast renewable prices: world levelized nominal prices fell in

2016 alone by 18% for onshore wind, 17% for utility-scale PV, and 28% for offshore wind, while the lowest bids fell 37% for Mexican PV and 43% for EU offshore wind

Bloomberg energy finance outlook projects that to >80% of global electricity related investments between 2018–40 will be into new renewables

Potentially important mitigation opportunities relevant for residential buildings

Urban design of new city parts and their infrastructures will be pivotal

Architecture minimizing cooling loads (e.g. by insulation with heat recovery ventilation, external shading)

Minimising concrete use for urban expansion and building construction, where possible Smart designs; using bio-based materials

Adopting green building guidelines for minimalizing cement use for what is necessary

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Brock Commons: first 19-storey high-rise from wood Carbon Impact

Source: Naturallywood

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© Skylens OG © TU Wien

Source: Klemens Schlögl, Schöber & Pöll, Austrian World Summit 2018, Vienna, May 2018

Retrofit of Vienna Technical University building to energy plus level

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9.300 optimierte

Komponenten

9.073 optimierte

Komponenten

8.846 optimierte

Komponenten

8.620 optimierte

Komponenten

8.393 optimierte

Komponenten

8.166 optimierte

Komponenten

7.939 optimierte

Komponenten

7.712 optimierte

Komponenten

7.485 optimierte

Komponenten

7.259 optimierte

Komponenten

7.032 optimierte

Komponenten

6.805 optimierte

Komponenten

6.578 optimierte

Komponenten

6.351 optimierte

Komponenten

6.124 optimierte

Komponenten

5.898 optimierte

Komponenten

5.671 optimierte

Komponenten

5.444 optimierte

Komponenten

5.217 optimierte

Komponenten

4.990 optimierte

Komponenten

4.763 optimierte

Komponenten

4.537 optimierte

Komponenten

4.310 optimierte

Komponenten

4.083 optimierte

Komponenten

3.856 optimierte

Komponenten

3.629 optimierte

Komponenten

3.402 optimierte

Komponenten

3.176 optimierte

Komponenten

2.949 optimierte

Komponenten

2.722 optimierte

Komponenten

2.495 optimierte

Komponenten

2.268 optimierte

Komponenten

2.041 optimierte

Komponenten

1.815 optimierte

Komponenten

1.588 optimierte

Komponenten

1.361 optimierte

Komponenten

1.134 optimierte

Komponenten

907 optimierte

Komponenten

680 optimierte

Komponenten

454 optimierte

Komponenten

227 optimierte

Komponenten

0 optimierte

Komponenten

Quelle: TU Wien, Forschungsbereich für Bauphysik und Schallschutz

Disruptive electricity demand reductions arrive from innovatively optimising opportunities in systems rather than replacing individual technologies

Source: Klemens Schlögl, Schöber & Pöll, Austrian World Summit 2018, Vienna, May 2018

3CSEP Source: Klemens Schlögl, Schöber & Pöll, Austrian World Summit 2018, Vienna, May 2018

Retrofit of Vienna Technical University building to energy plus level

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Passsive houses spread around the world Based on draft UNEP Emissions Gap Report, contributed by PHI

3CSEP From E-On Energy Globe Award Hungary 2018

% coverage of thermal energy demand by building-integrated solar energy by month in 2050, Single-family buildings

Petrichenko 2014: Net Zero Energy Buildings: Global and Regional Perspectives. PhD Dissertation, Central European University.

Petrichenko 2014: Net Zero Energy Buildings: Global and Regional Perspectives. PhD Dissertation, Central European University.

% coverage of electricity demand through building-integrated solar energy, Single-family buildings, 2050

3CSEP From E-On Energy Globe Award Hungary 2018

3CSEP From E-On Energy Globe Award Hungary 2018

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www.heidelberg-bahnstadt.de

World’s largest Passive House city district Zero-Emission-City areal Heidelberg-Bahnstadt 116 ha, 1,700 flats Passive House as Standard for urban development

Courtesy of Gunther Lang

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Banana crops #70-74, House of Amory Lovins, Colorado, down to -44C outside, no furnace; “cheaper to build that way”

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Figure 9.16. Cost of

conserved energy as a

function of energy saving in

percent for European retrofitted

buildings by building type and climate

zones.

Luco

n, U

rge-V

ors

atz

et

al 2

014 in

IP

CC

AR

5 W

GIII

(2014)

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0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

EJ

Moderate Efficiency Deep Efficiency

34%

46%

global heating and cooling final energy in

two scenarios

Diana Urge-Vorsatz, Ksenia Petrichenko, Maja Staniec, Jiyong Eom, Energy use in buildings in a long-term perspective. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, Volume 5, Issue 2, 2013, Pages 141-151,

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Total cumulative additional investment costs vs. total cumulative energy cost savings until 2050 under the Deep

efficiency and Moderate efficiency scenarios

Note: INV – total cumulative additional investment costs; ECS - total cumulative energy cost savings

Urban and buildings-level mitigation options can also contribute towards

development goals

“Overall, the potential for co‐benefits for energy end‐use measures outweigh the potential

for adverse side‐effects, whereas the evidence suggests this may not be the case for all energy

supply and AFOLU measures.” (SPM 4.1)

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0

50

100

150

200

250

Stávající zástavba Pasivní dům

ce

lková e

ne

rgie

[kW

h/m

2a] Domácí spotřebiče

Ohřev TUV

Vytápění

- 90%

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Total burden of disease from indoor exposures in European countries

as DALY/million population with division to indoor and outdoor sources in the 2010 building stock

Source: Otto Hänninen and Arja Asikainen (Eds.) 2013. Efficient reduction of indoor exposures Health benefits from optimizing ventilation, filtration and indoor source controls

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Attributable burden of diseases due to indoor exposures in 2010 in EU26

The lighter shade represents the maximum reducible fraction through well operated ventilation systems in high-efficiency buildings

Source: Otto Hänninen and Arja Asikainen (Eds.) 2013. Efficient reduction of indoor exposures Health benefits from optimizing ventilation, filtration and indoor source controls

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Better ventilation &

filtering

Mould

comfort

Indoor air quality

Allergens dampness, Fungi etc.

Formaldehyde, Asbestos,

Radon, Micro-

organisms CO2

Other outdoor air pollutants infiltration

Health

Allergies & asthma

Flu and cold Cancer

Cardiovascular diseases

Mental well-being

Other diseases

Active time

Absenteeism

Presenteeism

Healthy life years

Earning

ability

Present income of parents Future income ability

Workforce

performance

HV

AC

sys

tem

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irti

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t b

uild

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ve

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Pro

ductivity

Impact pathway Map-Building sector

CEU

Source: Chatterjee and Ürge-Vorsatz 2018

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Active days gain- Avoided sick days

Souran Chatterjee PhD dissertation CEU

-

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

5.27

2.20

Nu

mb

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ays

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Active days saved/per person, year by living in energy efficient

residential buildings

Germany Hungary

-

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

2.43

1.01

Nu

mb

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of d

ays

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ar

Active days saved/per person, year by working in energy efficient tertiary buildings

Germany Hungary

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Active days gain- avoided sick days in percentage

69% 68%

20% 19%

11% 13%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Germany Hungary

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Chart A: Percentage of sick days saved from different diseases due to living in energy efficient residential buildings

Asthma and Allergy Cold and flu CV

50% 48%

43% 42%

8% 9%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Germany HungaryP

erc

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Chart B: Percentage of sick days saved from different diseases due to working

in energy efficient tertiary buildings

Asthma and Allergy Cold and flu CV

Souran Chatterjee

Doctoral Defense 2018

CEU

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However, there is a major lock-in risk

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0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

EJ

Moderate Efficiency Deep Efficiency

Lock-in Effect 80%

34%

46%

The Lock-in Risk: global heating and cooling final energy in

two scenarios

Diana Urge-Vorsatz, Ksenia Petrichenko, Maja Staniec, Jiyong Eom, Energy use in buildings in a long-term perspective. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, Volume 5, Issue 2, 2013, Pages 141-151,

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Closing thoughts

Net zero energy buildings and deep retrofits have substantial climate, health, social welfare and gender benefits

Much of these do not occur, or even are disbenefits, for moderate, piecemeal retrofits or unambitious efficiency levels

Thus small is not always beautiful…. Newbuilds can be cheaper or comparable

However, there is a major financing challenge for deep retrofits – climate finance?

Thank you for your attention

Diana Ürge-Vorsatz Diana Department of Environmental Sciences and Poliy, CEU

www.ipcc.ch www.ceu.edu Email: vorsatzd@ceu.edu

Supplementary slides

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Figure 1. Per capita energy demand and per capita GDP

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Key messages Urban buildings pose among the largest emissions liability in the next

few decades…

…but also the largest opportunities

Dual emissions accounting and lifecycle approaches are critical in understanding priorities

A broad diversity of disruptive opportunities exist worldwide to keep these emissions at bay while even increasing services

Importance of systemic and non-technological demand-side approaches (vs component-based, single gadget or fuel switch options)

Many energy efficiency opportunities exist that also contribute to development goals rather than compromise them

However, there is a major lock-in risk – immediate action is pivotal

Finally: key challenge is financing: bridging the discount rate gap

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A substantial share of emission increase in the

next few decades will come from cities

Urban areas generate 80% of GDP and 71% - 76% of CO2 emissions from global energy use

Over 70% of global building energy use increase will take place in developing country cities

This enormous expected increase poses both an opportunity and responsibility

today 2035

Based on Seto et a. 2014 in IPCC AR5 WGIII and Urge-Vorsatz et al 2014

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The remaining carbon budget

Mundaca, Ürge-Vorsatz, and Wilson. "Demand-side approaches for limiting global warming to 1.5° C." Energy efficiency (2018): 1-20.

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A broad array of opportunities exist to keep these emissions at bay while maintaining or

increasing service levels Urban design and form

Energy-efficient transport systems Encouraging non-motorized and public transport

Efficient, small vehicles

Energy efficient buildings low-energy architecture

High-efficiency appliances, lighting and equipment

High performance operation of buildings (mainly commercial)

Fuel switch to low-carbon energy sources (RES) or high-efficiency equipment using energy contributing to CC Hi eff cookstoves

Lowering embodied energy in the built infrastructure and products – affordable low-carbon, durable construction materials

Towards the circular economy: reuse and sharing economy

Carbon storage in construction materials?

Lifestyle, behavior, culture

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Key messages Urban buildings pose among the largest emissions liability in the next

few decades.,.

…but also the largest opportunities

Dual emissions accounting and lifecycle approaches are critical in understanding priorities

3CSEP

Key messages Urban buildings pose among the largest emissions liability in the next

few decades.,.

…but also the largest opportunities

Dual emissions accounting and lifecycle approaches are critical in understanding priorities

Importance of systemic and non-technological demand-side approaches (vs component-based, single gadget or fuel switch options)

3CSEP

Key messages Urban buildings pose among the largest emissions liability in the next

few decades.,.

…but also the largest opportunities

Dual emissions accounting and lifecycle approaches are critical in understanding priorities

A broad diversity of disruptive opportunities exist worldwide to keep these emissions at bay while even increasing services

3CSEP

First retrofit to Passive House Plus

Office building Technical University Vienna Architect: Arch. DI Gerhard Kratochwil Building physics: Schöberl & Pöll GmbH Owner: BIG Bundesimmobilien gesmbH

Treated floor area: 7,322 m2 = 80,000 ft²

Heating demand: 14 kWh/m2a = 4.4 kBTU/ft²a

Heat load: 9 W/m² = 2.85 BTU/ft²

Primary energy: 56 kWh/m²a = 17.75 kBTU/ft²a

56 61 0

200

400

600

800

Beforeretrofit

After retrofit RenewableEnergy

803

Prim

ary

En

erg

y kW

h/(

m²a

)

- 94%

Courtesy of Gunther Lang

3CSEP Courtesy of Gunther Lang

3CSEP Courtesy of Gunther Lang

Example of affordable, low-embodied-carbon construction in a tropical country

(Passivhaus in Mexico City)

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Courtesy of Gunther Lang

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Challenges to implementing the disruptive solutions

The discount rate gap

channeling climate finance to private and commercial buildings

Policy integration Investing public health care budgets into building

retrofit…?

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New York City may go Passive

3CSEP

Key messages Urban buildings pose among the largest emissions liability in the next

few decades.,.

…but also the largest opportunities

Dual emissions accounting and lifecycle approaches are critical in understanding priorities

A broad diversity of disruptive opportunities exist worldwide to keep these emissions at bay while even increasing services

Importance of systemic and non-technological demand-side approaches (vs component-based, single gadget or fuel switch options)

Many energy efficiency opportunities exist that also contribute to development goals rather than compromise them

However, there is a major lock-in risk – immediate action is pivotal

Finally: key challenge is financing: bridging the discount rate gap

Thank you for your attention

Diana Ürge-Vorsatz Diana Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Energy Policy (3CSEP), CEU

http://3csep.ceu.hu www.mitigation2014.org Email: vorsatzd@ceu.hu