Devolution and Housing Steve Wilcox University of York.
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Transcript of Devolution and Housing Steve Wilcox University of York.
Devolution and Housing
Steve WilcoxUniversity of York
Devolution and Housing
Four frameworks
Housing Supply
Housing Affordability
Housing Quality
The First Decade
Four Frameworks :Constitutional Arrangements
Pre Devolution Differences
Scotland : Primary Legislation
Wales : Secondary Legislation
Northern Ireland : Suspension
Related non devolved functions
Four Frameworks :Financial Arrangements
Scotland & the 1989 ActBarnett & LA Capital ProvisionHRA Subsidy ConcordatsScotland & Prudential BorrowingNorthern Ireland & NIHEThe Rent Concordats
Index of growth in total devolved budgets
100
125
150
175
200
225
1988 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Scotland Northern Ireland Wales England/UK
Index of total per capita spending (UK = 100)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1998/99 2007/08
England Northern Ireland Scotland Wales
Housing spend as a proportion of total attributable spend
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1988 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Scotland Northern Ireland Wales England/UK
Devolution and housing supply
Overall housing supply
Supply of social rented dwellings
Right to buy reforms & impacts
Decline in social rented stock
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Th
ou
san
ds
England
1998 2007
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Thou
sand
s
NorthernIreland
Scotland Wales
1998 2007
Social rented stock as a proportion of total housing stock
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Per
cen
tag
es
England NorthernIreland
Scotland Wales
1998 2007
Trends in public funding for new housing association dwellings
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
£ milli
on
England
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
£ m
illio
n
Northern Ireland Scotland Wales.
Includes funding for shared ownership and other LCHO schemes
Trends in social rented new build completions
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
England
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Northern Ireland Scotland Wales.
Lettings to new tenants declinein all four countries
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
England
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Northern Ireland Scotland Wales
Figures are thousands. Northern Ireland figures are for NIHE only. EnglishLA figures exclude non secure lettings to homeless from 2003/04. ‘New’ tenants include existing tenants moving between the LA and HA sectors.
Divergent trends in homeless acceptances
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
England
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
Northern Ireland Scotland Wales
Proportion of council dwellings allocated to priority homeless in 2006
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Per
cen
tag
es
England NorthernIreland
Scotland Wales
Right to buy reforms and impacts
Gradual impact on lettings
Impact of cash limits
Scotlands ‘modernised’ right to buy
Wales & the LCO(*) Debacle
* Legislative Competence Order
RTB Sales of council housing
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Num
ber
of s
ales
England Scotland Wales Northern Ireland
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Disc
ount
rate
(%)
England ScotlandWales Northern Ireland
Average right to buy discounts
Housing affordability
Market affordability
Social rents & affordability
National trends in home owner affordability
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Hou
se p
rice
to in
com
e ra
tios
England Wales Scotland Northern Ireland
Based on CLG first time buyer house prices and EFS working household gross earnings
Proportion of younger households unable to buy in 2004
0
10
20
30
40
50
England Scotland Wales Great Britain
Per
cent
age
of a
ll ho
useh
olds
Not in work Require housing benefit Cant afford to buy
Source : Affordability and the Intermediate Housing Market, JRF, 2005
Rents as a percentage ofmortgage costs in 2007
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
£ pe
r wee
k
England Northern IrelandScotland Wales
Trends in council rents
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
£ pe
r wee
k
England Northern IrelandScotland Wales
Trends in housing association rents
Housing quality
Three quality standards
Quality of council housing
Quality of private housing
PRS Regulation
Environmental & Energy Efficiency
Housing Quality Standards
A century of evolving standards
Unfitness
Below Tolerable Standard
Decent Homes Mk I
Scottish Housing Quality Standard
Welsh Housing Quality Standard
Decent Homes Mk II (HHSRS)
Improving council housing
Stock transfers
ALMO’s in England
Prudential borrowing & Scotland
NIHE?
Public borrowing constraints
Definitional frailties
Post devolution stock transfers as a proportion of 1997 council stock
0
5
10
15
20
25
England Scotland Wales
Private sector grants fall in real terms
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
£ m
illi
on
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
England Scotland Wales Northern Ireland
Excludes disabled facilities grants
Improvements grants in 2006 per private sector dwelling
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
£ p
er a
nn
um
England NorthernIreland
Scotland Wales
The First Decade
Constraints and Opportunities
Considerable policy development
Contented policy communities
Limited impacts (so far) in practice
Cross border learning?
A settled settlement?