Development of the INPRO Global Vision - Atoms for Peace ... · of “nuclear world”: ... •...

International Atomic Energy Agency

Development of the INPRO Global Vision

P. Villalibre P. Villalibre (on behalf of INPRO Team)(on behalf of INPRO Team)

4th GIF-INPRO Interface Meeting IAEA HQs, Vienna. 1-3 March, 2010

International Atomic Energy Agency4th GIF-INPRO Interface MeetingIAEA HQs, Vienna. 1-3 March, 2010

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Presentation OutlinePresentation Outline

• INPRO activitiesactivities on “Global Vision”• Collaborative Project GAINSGAINS• Mention CPs FINITEFINITE, ThTh FCFC and RMIRMI• Highlights from the study on “Global

scenarios and Regional Trends”


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Activities - Global Vision

INPRO VISION REPORT

• Scenario modelling to assess how nuclear technology meets the potential demand of NE in the future

• Technical basis for joint visions / MS capacity building

GAINSGlobal NE Architecture

FINITECFC

Technologyof INES

Thorium Fuel

Cycle

Raw Materials Limitation

Global Scenarios & Regional

Trends

Collaborative ProjectsCollaborative Projects

Modelling Tools: DESAE, MESSAGE, NFCSS, …


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Approach - Global Vision

•• ScenariosScenarios assessed represent potential options in NE development, not predictions

• Purpose of the analysesof the analyses is to examine NE development pathways (Global evolution of nuclear fleet, FCs and material balances)

• Use of different modelingmodeling approachesapproaches, and in different depth.

• Consider changeschanges in the global NE systems: Different points of time in 21stC, technologies, regions, groups of countries

• Good cooperation with other IAEA programs


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INPRO Collaborative Project

GAINSGlobal Architecture of INS Based on Thermal and Fast

Reactors Including a Closed Nuclear Fuel Cycle

(V. Usanov, H. Hayashi, P. Villalibre, G. Fesenko)


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GAINS Purpose and Objectives

• Overall objective is to develop a framework (methodological platform of assumptions & boundary conditions) for analysing transition strategies to progressively move from present fleets to INS

• Motivation is to identify benefits encouraging implementation of transition options while minimizing financial, environmental, and political risks

• Global Nuclear Architecture • Sustainable development of NE within national

borders/resources requires multi-lateral cooperation• Countries have different Views on the optimal

arrangement of national NE while all need to use it in the most efficient and sustainable manner


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Global consideration

• Scenario studies based only in ‘homogeneous modelling’ require simultaneous introduction of INS globally, which implies strong limitations

• GAINS uses ‘heterogeneous consideration’•• RealisticRealistic, as the nuclear FC technology options used

in different groups of countries will be different• Implementing different options need cooperation • Three groups of countries are defined

• NG1: to recycle used fuel• NG2: to either dispose used fuel, or reprocess abroad• NG3: to send used fuel abroad for either recycle or

disposal, or back-end strategy is undecided


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GAINS Progress

• Selected the BaselinesBaselines for NE demand (global/regional)

• Developed pseudopseudo--regionalregional modelsmodels of “nuclear world”:• Homogeneous and heterogeneous approach (synergies)

• Identified sets of NESNES to cover the expected nuclear demand along the century

• Performed calculations/modellingcalculations/modelling for a range of demand scenarios and supply technologies

• Final publicationpublication still planned for 4Q-2010


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Retained NE demand scenarios

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Calculations / Example

• FR deployment rate with-w/o accounting synergies between different groups of countries

• High deployment of FR when synergy considered

• Assumption made: MOX fuel is available

Note: graph labelling TBD

FR deployment rate comparisonLow GAINS scenario, FR-200 Gwe by 2050 yr

0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

800.0

1000.0

1200.0

1400.0

1600.0

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

yr

GW

e

Heterogeneuos Synergetic Heterogeneuos Separate


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Calculations / Example

• Need for long- term spent fuel storage

• >2050, minimum need represented in dark blue

• Case: maximum use of FR

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

2008 2018 2028 2038 2048 2058 2068 2078 2088 2098

yr

Spen

t Fue

l in

Long

Ter

m S

tora

ges,

kt

LWR+FRmaxHWR+FRmaxLWR+FRmaxG1HWR+FRmaxG1LWR-BAUHWR-BAU


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Consideration on MNA

Multilateral approaches vs. national deployment• Significant improvement in assurance of fuel supply • Enhancement on NP capacity building• Reduction of SF burden and Pu accumulation • Cost reduction in the transition to future NES• For technology holders, market expansion reducing

ROI in RD&D• For technology users, reduction of RD&D ROI and

associated risks while increasing AFAS• Increased PR and benefits from economies of scale


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INPRO Collaborative Project FINITE

Fuel Cycles for Innovative Nuclear Energy Systems based on Integrated Technologies

(P. Villalibre, V. Usanov)


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Status summary

• Objectives and scope • Provide a medium to long-term overview of technically feasible and

economically sound Advanced and Innovative Nuclear Fuel Cycle Options (AINFCO)

• Identify institutional measures necessary for implementing sustainable AINFCO in the 21st century

• Determine specific issues related to Safety, Waste Management, PR, Environment and Economics relevant to the AINFCO

• Perform detailed analysis (as opposed to ‘black box’ modelling approaches)• Vis-à-vis GAINS specifically: some common reactor parameters and scenarios although more detail in reprocessing and CFC• Participants: China, Czech R., India, Japan, Russia, Israel (observ)• Progress status• Agreement on ToR scope and implementation plan• Focus is reprocessing technologies and deployment at commercial scale


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INPRO Collaborative Project Thorium Fuel Cycle

“Investigations of the 233U/Th Fuel Cycle”

(A. Korinny)


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Status Summary

• Objectives and scope• Investigate use of Thorium in future nuclear energy scenarios

• Participants: 8 INPRO Members• Progress status

• The CP was launched in December 2007• Information system for publications addressing the utilization

of Thorium has been prepared• Nuclear fuel cycle material flow data and parameters of the

reactors consuming Thorium and U-233 have been compiled• Calculations of one scenario for the introduction of Th are

ongoing• Final report planned in 2010

• Follow-up• A CRP on Thorium has been included in the IAEA Programme

& Budget 2010–2011 (NEFW and INPRO)


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INPRO Collaborative Project RMI

“Meeting Energy Needs in a Period of Raw Materials Insufficiency during the 21st Century”

(M. Khoroshev)


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Status Summary

Scope and Objectives• Determine the role of NE in the 21st century in selected EU

countries based on Long-term energy planning (all sources)• Assess the availability of raw materials locally and imported

(primary energy sources, steel, zirconium, cement, etc)• Energy balances import/export in the countries and region

Participants: 15 INPRO MembersProgress status

• Possibility of common position or common actions in these countries• Technical support for establishing national energy strategies

• Timeline• Started in 2007, publication expected in 2012


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Global Scenarios and Regional Trendsfor NE Development in the 21stCentury

(M. Khoroshev, L. Van den Durpel)


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Status summary

Objectives and scope• To illustrate the role of inter-regional transfers

of nuclear fuel resources supporting NE global growth• Analysis of global-regional scenarios leading to a

global vision of sustainable development of NE in 21st C• Participants: 16 experts from 9 INPRO Members• Progress status

• Final Draft distributed to the participants for review• Publication planned in 2Q-2010


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Retained NE demand scenarios

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Three main families of NES•U-Pu cycle in thermal spectrum reactors

• Low working inventory of fissile materials needed and thus facilitating FR park deployment

• Conversion ratio limited (higher depletion of nat fissile material resources)• Higher front-end FC services needs (higher environmental impact)• Limited potential for transuranics management

•U-Pu cycle in thermal & fast spectrum reactors• Fast spectrum reactors demand high fissile material working inventory,

limiting deployment rate• Though, high conversion ratios and even breeding possible• Strong reduction of front-end needs (less environmental impact)• Full transuranic management possible

•Thorium fuel cycle• Is complementary to uranium/plutonium fuel cycle as initiating and

deploying the Th-cycle demands for fissile material• Essentially extends natural resource base drastically, also through

allowing higher conversion fuel modes in reactors


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NE system deployment grid

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HTR


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Retained reactor families

•Thermal neutron reactors• LWR: present-day LWRs // SMR: small water-cooled reactor• LWR-M: modernised, higher fuel BU and thermodynamic efficiency• HTR: high-temperature reactor operating on U-Pu cycle• HTR (U3): high-temperature reactor operating on 233U/Th-cycle

•Fast neutron reactors:• FBR-C: heavy metal-cooled FR with BR = 1.05• FBR-S: advanced sodium-cooled FR with BR = 1.4• FBR-A: FR with BR = 1.6• FBR-A (Th): FR with BR = 1.6 and using Th-cycle

•Others:• Liquid-fuel reactors MSR // Fusion neutron sources

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Regions for NE scenarios

Motivation for geographical-regional representation•Economic/population development geographically different•Avoid have/have-not’s and temporary classification of MSs•Geographical shift in fertile/fissile material « mines »

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• Transport of fertile/fissile material can be important from societal perspective


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NES for development scenarios

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HTR

HTR


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Moderate scenario

Page

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2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 21000

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

GW

NALAEUEAAFMESAFE

Medium-1

Medium-2


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Distribution of FC facilities

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E – enrichment F – uranium fuel fabricationR – spent fuel reprocessing NE – nuclear energy capacities In the brackets - % of the world total

E (35)F (13)R (7)

NE (35.2)

E (4)F (12)R (16)

NE (78.4)

E (28)F (28)R (74)

NE (134.7)

E (?)F (2)R (3)

NE (4.2)F (1)

NE (4.1)

E (33)F (44)

NE (113.2)

NE (1.8)

GWe


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Interregional flows of Unat and fuel Low-1 scenario in 2050

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Needed Innovations (priorities TBD)•Development of efficient FBRs• Initial: minimal Pu-loading (3-4 tPu/Gwe), BR 1.2-1.3, cycle time 5-6y• Afterwards: BR 1.4 – 1.6, cycle time < 3 yrs

•More efficient fuel utilisation in thermal reactors• Higher conversion thermal neutron reactors (CR 0.9)• Closure of the Pu fuel cycle // Improved reactor core design• Transition to U/Pu-Th fuel cycle

•Development of reprocessing methods for• External fuel cycle shortening // Waste minimisation• Minimization of proliferation risks

•Development of SMRs // Introduction of Th FC•Development of technology complexes for non-

electric applications of NE•Development of liquid-fuel TRU/MA-incinerators to

close the fuel cycle for MAsPage

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Conclusions Global Growth

•Large expansion of NE will require challenging but feasible developments provided that financial and human resources are available.

•The required investments are high in nominal terms, but are estimated to represent less than 1% of the global BNP even for the High scenario.

•Once-through FC, even under “low” deployment scenarios, would cause complex problems of SF storage and disposal in addition to deployment of large enrichment capacities worldwide.

•Hence CFC-FR will be required if nuclear shall continue to play an important role beyond 2100.

•Delays in introduction of CFC would require considerable increase in Unat demand and enrichment capacities. A too long delay may jeopardise the capability of NE to fulfil its role as a future sustainable energy source for the world.

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Conclusions Regional Scenarios

•Large global NE energy deployment would require all regions to develop a common strategic approach prior decision-making on NE deployment in the region

•An international framework is needed as NE development in each world region depends on the other regions

•Siting of nuclear facilities would require compromise solutions to be found by different regions to overcome additional difficulties from future needs, constraints, uncertainties and scale rather than on market competition

•Purely technological consideration of NE for regional deployment might produce plenty of solutions but would make it sub-optimal in view of the actual NE development possible in each region


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Summary – Global Vision

Five main activities are ongoing• Study on global scenarios / regional trends• Four CPS: GAINS, FINITE, ThFC, RMI

Approach• 3 scenarios of NE development are being

analyzed (different perspective, purpose, level of detail and expert groups).

Publication: • 3 publications planned in 2010, one in 2011 and

another in 2012. Common publication planned in 2012


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……Thank you for your attention!Thank you for your attention!email:email: [email protected]

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