Development Of Dune Impact Forecasting System For NC 12 ... · Dr. Elizabeth Sciaudoneand Dr....
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XBeach requires 4 primary inputs from a user to run: Grid on which the model is run (1D)(fig. 6) Bathymetry and topography(fig. 6) Boundary conditions such as waves and water levels(fig. 7) Parameters for wave and sediment transport formulations Highway NC 12 is a piece of critical infrastructure along the North Carolina Outer Banks. NC 12 serves as a primary evacuation route for residents and tourists during extreme weather events, therefore its accessibility is a high priority. During storms, dune overwash and breaching can cover or completely destroy the road, making it impassible (fig. 1, 2). Accurate pre-storm forecasting information regarding vulnerable highway regions could be used by North Carolina Department of Transportation (NCDOT) to focus resources in critical areas. Development Of Dune Impact Forecasting System For NC 12 Highway Along Pea Island, North Carolina R. Nasrallah 1 , E. Sciaudone 1 , H. Mitasova 2 Department of Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering 1 , Department of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences 2 , North Carolina State University 1. Motivation a. b. Figure 2: Dune overwash during Hurricane Florence (NCDOT) Research Aim: To develop a predictive numerical model to forecasts impacts of storms on NC Highway 12 for the Pea Island National Wildlife Refuge (PINWR) 2. Study Area and Storm Figure 3: Study site location at the Pea Island National Wildlife Refuge (PINWR) Atlantic Ocean Pamlico Sound Test Area XBeach, a numerical model that simulates waves and sediment transport, was chosen to determine storm impacts(1). Figure 4: Water Levels (Oregon Inlet Marina) and Wave Heights (CSI BUOY). Initial calibration efforts were focused north of Rodanthe, NC where dune overwash and highway impacts were confirmed to have occurred during Hurricane Sandy by post storm aerial imagery. This location contains both natural and man made dune systems (fig. 5). Figure 5: Pre/Post storm imagery of subset study location with cross shore transects and pre/post-storm elevation. Figure 1: Dune overwash during Hurricane Sandy (a. NCDOT, b. USGS) 3. Model Calibration 4. Results Figure 6: Shore perpendicular cross section showing input bathymetry and topography for 1 transect (579) in the test area. The composite profile was constructed by interpolating between the Flood Plain Mapping Program (FMP) and NCDOT 2012/10/11 DEM’s Transitional Zone (25m – 2m) 2m node spacing 25m node spacing -0.8 -0.3 0.2 0.7 1.2 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10/26/12 10/28/12 10/30/12 11/1/12 Water Level NAVD88 (m) Significant Wave Height (m) CSI Buoy (measured) ADCIRC nam Mirlo - HS ADCIRC nam Mirlo - WL ADCIRC Mirlo (extended) Figure 7: Boundary conditions selected from ADCIRC+SWAN hindcast run using the NAM wind fields as compared to measured wave heights at the Coastal Studies (CSI) Institute Buoy. 5. Future work and Acknowledgements Continue calibrating the model with Hurricane Sandy Model validation for Winter Storm Riley (2018) Utilize Wave Watch III (WW3) and the Nearshore Wave Prediction System (NOAA models) outputs to force the XBeach model. Perform ‘live’ predictions with Hurricane Florence NSWP forecasts to determine the accuracy of these boundary conditions in forecasting regions of highway impact. Assess the feasibility of utilizing quarterly DEMs from NCDOT as topographic inputs for the XBeach model Create automated advisory outputs for use by NCDOT I would like to acknowledge the following parties for their assistance NCDOT for their use of the high-quality DEMs Dr. Elizabeth Sciaudone and Dr. Liliana Velasquez Montoya for their guidance in the development of this project. My fellow graduate students, Ajimon Thomas and Alireza Gharagozlou whose counsel has been instrumental in my understanding of the ADCIRC and XBeach models, respectively. Dr. Brian Blanton from RENCI Renaissance Computing Institute for supplying hindcast Hurricane Sandy ADCIRC+SWAN runs. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10/3/12 10/18/12 11/2/12 11/17/12 12/2/12 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 Water Levels NAVD88 (m) Significant Wave height (m) Oregon Inlet Marina Water Levels CSI Buoy Wave Heights [email protected] CSI Buoy Oregon Inlet Monitoring Station Atlantic Ocean PINWR NC 12 The calibration process is still underway. Initial results closely resemble post-storm profiles(fig. 8). Similarities decrease as we move south (higher transect numbers) due to the presence of more easily eroded man-made dunes as opposed to natural, vegetated dunes. Figure 8: Aerial image and corresponding graph of transect with pre-storm composite profile (black dotted) is shown in relation to the modeled results (green bold line), and verified post-storm profile (red) at 3 different transects from north to south. Citation: (1) Roelvink, Dano, et al. "XBeach model description and manual." Unesco-IHE Institute for Water Education, Deltares and Delft University of Tecnhology. Report June 21 (2010): 2010.
Transcript of Development Of Dune Impact Forecasting System For NC 12 ... · Dr. Elizabeth Sciaudoneand Dr....
XBeach requires 4 primary inputs from a user to run: Grid on which the model is run (1D)(fig. 6) Bathymetry and topography(fig. 6) Boundary conditions such as waves and water levels(fig. 7) Parameters for wave and sediment transport formulations
Highway NC 12 is a piece of critical infrastructure along the North Carolina Outer Banks.
NC 12 serves as a primary evacuation route for residents and tourists during extreme weather events, therefore its accessibility is a high priority.
During storms, dune overwash and breaching can cover or completely destroy the road, making it impassible (fig. 1, 2).
Accurate pre-storm forecasting information regarding vulnerable highway regions could be used by North Carolina Department of Transportation (NCDOT) to focus resources in critical areas.
Development Of Dune Impact Forecasting System ForNC 12 Highway Along Pea Island, North Carolina
R. Nasrallah1, E. Sciaudone1, H. Mitasova2
Department of Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering1, Department of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences2, North Carolina State University
1. Motivation
a.
b.
Figure 2: Dune overwash during Hurricane Florence (NCDOT)
Research Aim: To develop a predictive numerical model to forecasts impacts of storms on NC Highway 12 for the Pea Island National Wildlife Refuge (PINWR)
2. Study Area and Storm
Figure 3: Study site location at the Pea Island National Wildlife Refuge (PINWR)
Atlantic Ocean
Pamlico Sound
Test Area
XBeach, a numerical model that simulates waves and sediment transport, was chosen to determine storm impacts(1).
Figure 4: Water Levels (Oregon Inlet Marina) and Wave Heights (CSI BUOY).
Initial calibration efforts were focused north of Rodanthe, NC where dune overwash and highway impacts were confirmed to have occurred during Hurricane Sandy by post storm aerial imagery. This location contains both natural and man made dune systems (fig. 5).
Figure 5: Pre/Post storm imagery of subset study location with cross shore transects and
pre/post-storm elevation.
Figure 1: Dune overwash during Hurricane Sandy (a.
NCDOT, b. USGS)
3. Model Calibration
4. Results
Figure 6: Shore perpendicular cross section showing input bathymetry and topography for 1 transect (579) in the test area. The composite profile was constructed by interpolating between the Flood Plain Mapping Program
(FMP) and NCDOT 2012/10/11 DEM’s
Transitional Zone (25m – 2m)2m node spacing 25m node spacing
-0.8
-0.3
0.2
0.7
1.2
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10/26/12 10/28/12 10/30/12 11/1/12
Wat
er L
evel
NA
VD
88 (m
)
Sig
nifi
can
t W
ave
Hei
ght
(m)
CSI Buoy (measured) ADCIRC nam Mirlo - HS ADCIRC nam Mirlo - WL ADCIRC Mirlo (extended)
Figure 7: Boundary conditions selected from ADCIRC+SWAN hindcast run using the NAM wind fields as compared to measured wave heights at the Coastal Studies (CSI) Institute Buoy.
5. Future work and Acknowledgements Continue calibrating the model with Hurricane Sandy Model validation for Winter Storm Riley (2018)Utilize Wave Watch III (WW3) and the Nearshore Wave Prediction
System (NOAA models) outputs to force the XBeach model. Perform ‘live’ predictions with Hurricane Florence NSWP forecasts to
determine the accuracy of these boundary conditions in forecasting regions of highway impact.
Assess the feasibility of utilizing quarterly DEMs from NCDOT as topographic inputs for the XBeach model
Create automated advisory outputs for use by NCDOT
I would like to acknowledge the following parties for their assistance NCDOT for their use of the high-quality DEMs Dr. Elizabeth Sciaudone and Dr. Liliana Velasquez Montoya for their
guidance in the development of this project. My fellow graduate students, Ajimon Thomas and Alireza Gharagozlou
whose counsel has been instrumental in my understanding of the ADCIRC and XBeach models, respectively.
Dr. Brian Blanton from RENCI Renaissance Computing Institute for supplying hindcast Hurricane Sandy ADCIRC+SWAN runs.
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10/3/12 10/18/12 11/2/12 11/17/12 12/2/12-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
Wat
er L
evel
s N
AV
D88
(m)
Sig
nifi
can
t W
ave
hei
ght
(m)
Oregon Inlet Marina Water Levels CSI Buoy Wave Heights
CSI Buoy
Oregon Inlet Monitoring Station
Atlantic Ocean
PINWRNC 12
The calibration process is still underway. Initial results closely resemble post-storm profiles(fig. 8). Similarities decrease as we move south (higher transect numbers) due to the presence of more easily eroded man-made dunes as opposed to natural, vegetated dunes.
Figure 8: Aerial image and corresponding graph of transect with pre-storm composite profile (black dotted) is shown in relation to the modeled results (green bold line), and verified post-storm profile (red) at 3 different
transects from north to south.
Citation: (1) Roelvink, Dano, et al. "XBeach model description and manual." Unesco-IHE Institute for Water Education, Deltares and Delft University of Tecnhology. Report June 21 (2010): 2010.
