Development of Chemically-Resolved Speciation Profiles for

Attainment Planning

Wenli Yang, Leonardo Ramirez, John DaMassa California Air Resources Board

2015 International Emission Inventory Conference April 13 – 16, 2015

San Diego, California

1

∗ Vernon Hughes ∗ Jeff Long ∗ Shaohua Hu ∗ Jorn Dinh Herner ∗ Alberto Ayala ∗ Ying-Kuang Hsu ∗ Beth Schwehr ∗ Chris Nguyen ∗ Tao Huai

2

Acknowledgement

∗ Qiang Fan ∗ Yanbo Pang ∗ Christine Maddox ∗ Xu Wang ∗ Huawei Sun ∗ Irina Malkina ∗ Steven Magbuhat ∗ Tim Dunn ∗ Hector Maldonado

∗ Attainment plans provide the blueprint for areas in non-attainment of ambient air quality standards.

∗ Air quality modeling is an important tool to support the attainment plans.

∗ Chemically-resolved inventory is one of the key components for air quality modeling.

∗ Speciation profiles are used to create the chemically-resolved inventory.

∗ CARB speciation program: http://www.arb.ca.gov/ei/speciate/speciate.htm

Background

3

∗ Consumer Products Profiles ∗ Based on survey data

∗ Gasoline Vehicle Emission Profiles ∗ 1991, eliminated lead ∗ 1996, set specifications for sulfur, aromatics, benzene, etc. ∗ 1999, eliminated MTBE ∗ 2004, E6 gasoline fuel ∗ 2010, E10 gasoline fuel

∗ Ocean-going vessel PM profiles ∗ July 1, 2009, 0.26% MGO or 0.5% MDO ∗ Jan. 1, 2012, 0.1% MGO or 0.1% MDO

4

CARB Speciation Profiles

Require heavy –duty diesel trucks that operate in California to be upgraded to reduce emissions:

∗ Beginning 1/1/2012, newer heavier trucks and buses must meet PM filter requirements.

∗ Starting 1/1/2015, lighter and older heavier trucks must be replaced.

∗ By 1/1/2023, nearly all trucks and buses will need to have 2010 model year engines or equivalent.

5

Truck and Bus Rule

6

Effect of DPF on PM Emissions

Herner et al. EST, 2011, 45(6)

∗ DPF reduces the PM emissions by several orders of magnitudes

∗ The fraction of EC in PM greatly decreases after applying DPF

Field Contents

Test Type Chassis dynamometer, Engine dynamometer

Engine Model Year from 1984 to 2007

Aftertreatment Non-aftertreatment; Aftertreatment: trap, DPF, oxidant catalyst, CRT, CCRT, V-SCRT, Z-SCRT, DPX, EPF, EGR/CGI+(DOC)CDPF

Diesel Fuel Diesel 2, Jet A, CLSF, ECD, ECD-1, F-T, low aromatic diesel, pre-93 diesel, reformulated diesel, LSD, ULSD

Test Cycle Idle, creep, cruise, HW, CBD, CCS, HCS, CSHVR, FTP, MC, transient, UDDS, CARB 5-modes, 16-hour

7

Selected Studies for Profile Making

Engine Model Year (MY)

Exhaust After-treatment (AT)

without with

Pre 1994 G1 G2

1994-2002 G3 G4

2003-2006 G5 G6

2007-2009 / G7

2010 and newer / G8

8

Model Year/After-treatment (MY/AT) Grouping

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

D10012(<5000)

D10013(<5000)

D10014(<5000)

D10001(<500)

D10003(<500)

D20029(<500)

D20031(<500)

D20051(<500)

D20036(<15)

D20037(<15)

Wei

ght F

ract

ion

Profile Number (Fuel sulfur level, ppm)

HDDT-G1-Transient

All others

Sulfate

Nitrate

EC

OM

9

MY/AT Profile for HDDT: G1

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

D10007 (<500)D20027 (<500)D20028 (<500)D20050 (<500)

Wei

ght F

ract

ion

HDDT-G1-Idle

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

D10011(<5000)

D10005(<500)

D20030(<500)

D20052(<500)

HDDT-G1-Cruise

10

MY/AT Profile for HDDT: G3

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

D10008(<500)

D20017(<500)

D20018(<500)

D20022(<500)

D20023(<500)

D20032(<500)

D20044(<500)

D20047(<500)

D20066(<15)

Wei

ght F

ract

ion

HDDT-G3-Idle

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

D10006(<500)

D20020(<500)

D20025(<500)

D20046(<500)

D20049(<500)

D20053(<15)

HDDT-G3-Cruise

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

D10002(<500)

D10004(<500)

D20008(<500)

D20019(<500)

D20021(<500)

D20024(<500)

D20026(<500)

D20033(<500)

D20034(<500)

D20035(<500)

D20045(<500)

D20048(<500)

D20010(<15)

D20054(<15)

Wei

ght F

ract

ion

Profile Number (Fuel sulfur level, ppm)

HDDT-G3-Transient

All others

Sulfate

Nitrate

EC

OM

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

D20009(<15)

D20011(<15)

D20012(<15)

D20058(<15)

D20060(<15)

D20062(<15)

Wei

ght F

ract

ion

Profile Number (Fuel sulfur level, ppm)

HDDT-G4-Transient

All others

Sulfate

Nitrate

EC

OM

11

MY/AT Profile for HDDT: G4

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

D20067(<15)

D20068(<15)

D20069(<15)

Wei

ght F

ract

ion

HDDT-G4-Idle

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

D20055(<15)

D20057(<15)

D20059(<15)

D20061(<15)

HDDT-G4-Cruise

12

MY/AT Profile for HDDT: G5

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

D20040(<500)

D20043(<500)

HDDT-G5-Cruise

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

D20038(<500)

D20041(<500)

Wei

ght F

ract

ion

HDDT-G5-Idle

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

D20039(<500)

D20042(<500)

Wei

ght F

ract

ion

Profile Number (Fuel sulfur level, ppm)

HDDT-G5-Transient

All othersSulfateNitrateECOM

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

D20064(<15)

SB-G6-Transient (uncatalyzed DPF)

All others

Sulfate

Nitrate

EC

OM

13

MY/AT Profile for School Bus

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

D20001(<500)

D20002(<15)

D20004(<15)

D20006(<15)

Wei

ght F

ract

ion

SB-G3-Transient

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

D20003(<15)

D20005(<15)

D20007(<15)

SB-G4-Transient

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

D20070(<15)

Wei

ght F

ract

ion

SB-G6-Idle (uncatalyzed DPF)

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

D20063(<15)

Profile Number (Fuel sulfur level, ppm)

SB-G6-Cruise (uncatalyzed DPF)

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

D20065(<15)

TB-G6-Transient (hybrid)

All others

Sulfate

Nitrate

EC

OM

14

MY/AT Profile for Transit Bus

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

D10009(<500)

D10010(<500)

Wei

ght F

ract

ion

TB-G1-Transient

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

D10015(<5000)

D10016(<5000)

D10017(<500)

D10018(<500)

D10019(<500)

D10020(<500)

TB-G2-Transient

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

D20013(<500)

D20015(<15)

TB-G3-Transient

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

D20014(<15)

D20016(<15)

Wei

ght F

ract

ion

Profile Number (Fuel sulfur level, ppm)

TB-G4-Transient

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

D20071(<15)

D20072(<15)

D20073(<15)

D20074(<15)

E-G7-transient

All others

Sulfate

Nitrate

EC

OM

15

MY/AT Profile for Engine

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

D10025(<500)

D10026(<500)

D10027(<500)

D10028(<500)

D10023(<15)

D10024(<15)

Wei

ght F

ract

ion

E-G1-transient

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

D20039(<500)

D20042(<500)

E-G3-cruise

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

D10030(<500)

D10032(<500)

Wei

ght F

ract

ion

Profile Number (Fuel sulfur level, ppm)

E-G4-cruise

16

Summary of MY/AT Profiles

00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91

00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9

1

Profile Name

Wei

ght F

ract

ion

Profile Number

OM EC Nitrate Sulfate All others

Type Cycle MY/AT G1 G2 G3 G4 G5 G6 G7 G8

HDDT Idle 4252 4258 4255 4258 4261 4258

4277

Cruise 4253 4259 4256 4259 4262 4259 Transient 4254 4260 4257 4260 4263 4260

School Bus

Idle 4252 4258 4255 4258 4261 4258 Transient 4254 4260 4264 4260 4263 4260

Transit Bus

Idle 4252 4258 4255 4258 4261 4258

Transient 4269 4260 4271 4260 4263 4260

Engine Cruise 4275 4276

Transient 4274 4277

17

Assumptions

18

California HDDV Fleet Composition

∗ : weight fraction of Species j in the CY profile for Year k fleet;

∗ : Weight fraction of Species j in the MY/AT profile for Group i (i=G1, G2, G3, G4, G5, G6, G7 and G8);

∗ : CY fleet composition fraction of Group i vehicles in the fleet of Year k, weighted by PM2.5 mass.

19

Profile for Each Calendar Year

∑−=

×=81

)(i

YG

SG

SY

k

i

j

i

j

kPFF

j

k

SYF

j

i

SGF

k

i

YGP

Calendar Year

HDDT SB TB

Idle Cruise Transient Idle Transient Idle Transient

2007 6071 6072 6073 6074 6075 6076 6077

2008 6081 6082 6083 6084 6085 6086 6087

2009 6091 6092 6093 6094 6095 6096 6097

2010 6101 6102 6103 6104 6105 6106 6107

2011 6111 6112 6113 6114 6115 6116 6117

2012 6121 6122 6123 6124 6125 6126 6127

2013 6131 6132 6133 6134 6135 6136 6137

2014 6141 6142 6143 6144 6145 6146 6147

20

Calendar Year Specific Profiles

21

HDDT Transient Profiles

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Wei

ght F

ract

ion

Calendar Year

All others

Sulfate

Nitrate

EC

OM

22

Profile Assignment Vehicle Cycle EICSUB Name

HDDT

Cruise

Motor Coach, PTO, T6 Ag, T6 CAIRP heavy, T6 CAIRP small, T6 instate construction heavy, T6 instate construction small, T6 instate heavy, T6 instate small, T6 OOS heavy, T6 OOS small, T7 Ag, T7 CAIRP, T7 CAIRP construction, T7 NNOOS, T7 NOOS, T7 other port, T7 POAK, T7 POLA, T7 tractor, T7 tractor construction

Transient T6 public, T6 utility, T7 public, T7 single, T7 single construction, T7 SWCV, T7 utility

SB Transient SBUS

TB Transient All Other Buses

∗ The year-specific composite diesel PM profiles are able to reflect the CARB truck and bus regulation.

∗ The MY/AT profile pool needs to be updated with new testing data for newer vehicles.

∗ Speciation profile development is meeting the challenges posed by new technology or regulations.

∗ The inventory categories needs to be changed to face the emerging air quality issues.

23

Summary

Thank you!

24

THE END

Wenli Yang, Ph.D., P.E. Air Quality Planning and Science Division

California Air Resources Board 1001 I Street, Sacramento, 95812

(916) 324-2774 wenli.yang@arb.ca.gov