Developing an evidence based municipal portfolio:

The experience of the University of Chicago Crime Lab

Roseanna Ander – Executive DirectorUniversity of Chicago Crime Lab

COMPREHENSIVE SOLUTIONS FOR CRIME AND VIOLENCE PREVENTION

June 26 – 29, 2013Cali, Colombia

 

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VIOLENCE WORLDWIDE

• In 2008, the World Health Organization estimated that 535,380 people worldwide (8.0 per 100,000 pop.) died of intentional violent injuries.1

• Of these deaths: • 5.4 per 100,000 pop. occurred in the United States.1 • 18.1 per 100,000 pop. occurred in Chicago.2 • 28.9 per 100,000 pop. occurred in Latin America.3 • 26.4 per 100,000 pop. occurred in Brazil.4

• 35.9 per 100,000 pop. occurred in Colombia. 4

• 51.9 per 100,000 pop. occurred in El Salvador.4

1CDC WISQARS (2010) Queried June 13, 2013.2Chicago Police Department (2012) Chicago Murder Analysis Report 2011.3World Health Organization (2013) Cause-specific mortality, 2008: MDG regions by country. Violent injury excludes war and civil conflict and self-inflicted injuries4United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (2012) Intentional homicide, count and rate per 100,000 population (1995 - 2011)

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THE FACE OF YOUTH VIOLENCE IN CHICAGO

“Nequiel Fowler was so excited to start 4th grade on Tuesday that she already had her backpack organized, a new outfit picked out and her hair braided with white beads. But first she enjoyed the last afternoon of summer, playing down the block from her home with friends and the blind little sister who was her constant companion. When Nequiel bent down to tie her sister Valerie's shoe, shots rang out and "Nee-Nee" slumped to the ground with a stray bullet in her left side. Valerie, unaware of what had happened, clung bewildered to a house gate, reaching for her sister and calling her name”

Chicago Tribune, September 3, 2008

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VICTIMS ARE NOT THE ONLY VICTIMS

“I don’t think the world is safe for me.”

De’Jour Stewart, 11, is afraid to go far from his home after witnessing a shooting.

Chicago Tribune, April 28, 2008

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DISPROPORTIONATE EFFECT ON YOUTH

Crime is disproportionately affecting youth, both in terms of crimes committed and as victims of violent crimes

Under 10

11-15

16-20

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65+0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

Percent of Crime Committed by Age Group, 2009

Murder and nonnegligent manslaugh-terViolent crimeProperty crime

Under 10

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65+0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Number of Homicides in the United States, 2007

Homicide, total

Homicide, firearm

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MUCH OF THIS IS DRIVEN BY GUN VIOLENCE

London NYC LA Sao Paulo Chicago0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

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Homicide Rates for Chicago and Select Peer Cities, 2006

Nongun Gun

London NYC LA São Paulo Chicago

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VIOLENCE COMPOUNDS EVERY OTHER FORM OF INEQUALITY IN MODERN AMERICAN

SOCIETY• Burden falls disproportionately on the most

disadvantaged.

3.61

10.43

30.53

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

White Latino/Hispanicorigin

African American

Rat

e pe

r 100

,000

Firearm Homicide U.S., Age 10-24

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ONE KEY FINDING: IMPACTING EDUCATION IS CRUCIAL TO REDUCING CRIME

There is only so much progress we are going to be able to make on the problem of violent crime if dropout rates continue to be 50%.

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16

405

1015202530

Non HSGraduate

HS graduate Some college

Rat

e pe

r 100

,000

Male Homicide Victimization Rate, 1996

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U.S. POLICY RESPONSE TO CRIME: MASS INCARCERATION

19251927

19291931

19331935

19371939

19411943

19451947

19491951

19531955

19571959

19611963

19651967

19691971

19731975

19771979

19811983

19851987

19891991

19931995

19971999

20012003

0

100

200

300

400

500

US Incarceration Rate: 1925 - 2003

Inca

rcer

ation

rate

per

100

,000

pop

ulati

on

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THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF VIOLENCE

• We have estimated the social costs of gun violence in Chicago alone may be on order of $2.5 billion per year (~$2,500 per Chicago household)

• By this same estimate, the social cost of gun violence is roughly $100 billion per year in the US alone

• Social cost of crime may be as high as $2 trillion per year in the US – roughly 14% of the total GDP

• Social cost of crime to the world is on the order of trillions of dollars per year

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WE ARE NOT MAKING PROGRESS

• There has been dramatic progress in reducing mortality from other major leading causes, but not from homicide

• Fields experiencing the most dramatic progress (medicine) recognize the importance of scientific evidence in decision-making

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100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2005

Mortality Rate by Cause of Death

Infant mortality (x10) Heart disease Cerebrovascular Homicide (x30)

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HOW CAN WE MAKE PROGRESS?

• We need to take the evidence of what works, for whom, and why, more seriously.

• We need to ensure that novel lessons from basic science about people and organizations are shaping the frontier of policy innovation.

• We need to focus on developing strategies and interventions that maximize cost effectiveness.

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THE UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO CRIME LAB: WHO WE ARE

• Founded in 2008 by Jens Ludwig, PhD, to partner with the city of Chicago and other jurisdictions to carry out randomized experiments to learn more about how to reduce crime and related social problems Nearly 30 affiliated researchers at top-tier universities

from around the United States Dozens of projects in partnership with government

agencies and non-profits across the country

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THE UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO CRIME LAB: OUR GOALS

• Improve anti-violence programs by providing, for the first time, clear scientific results to help prevent violence, and decrease socially harmful behavior.

• Partner with government agencies and community groups in Chicago and around the U.S. to evaluate promising intervention strategies.

• Allocate scarce resources to the most cost-effective policies and programs.

• Create evolving portfolio of experiments to learn more about mechanisms & most cost-effective interventions.

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THE CRIME LAB IN PRACTICE – EXAMPLES OF PROJECTS PAST AND ONGOING:

Check and Connect

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CHECK AND CONNECT

• Dropping out of school does not occur without warning or in isolation – it is often the culmination of a process that stretches back several years, and begins with chronic absenteeism or school truancy. 

• The four-year graduation rate in Chicago for 9th graders who missed even a single full week of school was 24 percentage points lower than for students who missed less than a week (Allensworth and Easton, 2007).

• FastTrack experiment for 3rd graders who missed 4 or more weeks of school, high-school dropout rates are more than double those of students who missed less than 2 weeks of school in the third grade.

• The University of Chicago Crime Lab research team raised $7 million from the National Institutes of Health, the U.S. Department of Education and the W.T. Grant Foundation to test whether structured mentoring can reduce truancy & increase graduation.

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BECOMING A MAN

• Youth violence is very impulsive• Chicago PD: Nearly two-thirds of all homicides stem from an

altercation

• “Becoming a Man” employs Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy, mentoring, and positive youth development targeted at urban adolescent males• Implemented in 2009-10 academic year, with 2,740 male 7th-10th

graders in 16 CPS schools randomly assigned to treatment or control conditions

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BECOMING A MAN: RESULTS

With an average of only 13 “contact hours” per participant, initial findings show the program:

• Increases school engagement by around 7-8%—a critical outcome for long-term crime prevention.

• Reduced violent crime arrests by 44% during the program year.• Reduced the likelihood of attending a school inside a juvenile justice

setting in the year after the program by 53%.• Graduation rates might increase for participants by an additional 10 to 23

percent of the control group's graduation rate.• The program cost around $1,100 per participant, while its impacts on

criminal behavior generated benefits to society that are valued on the order of $3,600 to $34,000 per participant.

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RESULTS LIKE THIS GET NOTICED

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YOUTH SUMMER EMPLOYMENT

“Nothing stops a bullet like a job.”

• We sought to develop an intervention that would provide rigorous, “gold-standard” evidence on the effect of summer jobs on education, employment, and crime.

• The One Summer +PLUS intervention can demonstrate whether providing social and behavioral skill development is a cost-effective way to improve program participation and increase the impact of a job over the short- and long-term.

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CRIME LAB, AFTER FIVE YEARS: LESSONS, CHALLENGES, AND OPPORTUNITIES

Photo copyright Felix Petersen

• There is no shortage of innovation at the municipal level--it is good evidence that is in short supply.

• The best projects responsive to policy makers and community level concerns.

• Everyone involved needs to be willing to take risks and be pragmatic.

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CRIME LAB, AFTER FIVE YEARS: LESSONS, CHALLENGES, AND OPPORTUNITIES

• We need to find the golden portfolio not the “magic bullet”

• Projects benefit from interdisciplinary perspectives and academics spending time outside the ivory tower.

• “Secondary prevention” is critically important and under appreciated

• Crime is not just a criminal justice system problem/education is not just the purview of the education system

• Good evaluation does not have to be cost-prohibitive—but having very good administrative data and a government willing to share data are key.