Developing an Ensemble Prediction System based on COSMO-DE
-
Upload
emmanuel-hansen -
Category
Documents
-
view
36 -
download
0
description
Transcript of Developing an Ensemble Prediction System based on COSMO-DE
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
Developing an Ensemble Prediction System
based on COSMO-DE
Project COSMO-DE-EPS
Deutscher Wetterdienst
Susanne Theis, Christoph Gebhardt, Michael Buchhold,Marcus Paulat, Roland Ohl, Zied Ben Bouallègue, Carlos Peralta
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
Deutscher Wetterdienst
Overview
Motivation for Project COSMO-DE-EPS
Tasks within Project
Current Status
where to get information
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
Motivation for the Project
Deutscher Wetterdienst
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
Deutscher Wetterdienst
Numerical Weather Prediction Model COSMO-DE
grid box size: 2,8 km
without parametrization
of deep convection
assimilation of radar data
lead time: 0-21 hours
operational since April 2007
COSMO-EU
GME
COSMO-DE
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
mm/h
Benefits of COSMO-DE
COSMO-EU (7 km)
Deutscher Wetterdienst
COSMO-DE (2,8 km)
captures extremes
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
mm/h
COSMO-EU (7 km) COSMO-DE (2,8 km)
Benefits of COSMO-DE
Deutscher Wetterdienst
looks more realistic
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
What about Deterministic Predictability?
Deutscher Wetterdienst
lead time
Atmosphere is
a chaotic system
(Lorenz,1963)
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
lead time
typi
cal t
ime
scal
e
typical spacial scale
Scale Diagram
Zyklonen
Cumulo-nimbus
10 km 1000 km
1 Stunde
1 Woche
Predictability
100 m
Deutscher Wetterdienst
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
Deutscher Wetterdienst
COSMO-DE (2,8 km)
mm/h
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
paradigm shift from deterministic to probabilistic prediction
Need for probabilistic approach
so that user really gets benefit
Deutscher Wetterdienst
COSMO-DE (2,8 km)
mm/h
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
Project COSMO-DE-EPS:
Development of a convection-allowing
Ensemble Prediction System
Aims and Tasks
Deutscher Wetterdienst
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
Setting up an Ensemble System
several predictions = „members“ of ensemble
very large investment of computing power
„variations“ inprediction system
ensemble products:
- probability density fct- exceedance probs- quantiles- „spread“- mean- ...
Deutscher Wetterdienst
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
Deutscher Wetterdienst
How many ensemble members?
20 members, pre-operational
40 members, operational
When?
2010 pre-operational
2011 operational
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
Deutscher Wetterdienst
Tasks within Project
implementation of perturbations
post-processing
verification & diagnostics
visualization
early user feedback
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
Deutscher Wetterdienst
Tasks within Project
implementation of perturbations
post-processing
verification & diagnostics
visualization
early user feedback
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
Deutscher Wetterdienst
Implementation of Perturbations
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
Deutscher Wetterdienst
Implementation of Perturbations
X X
initial conditions boundary conditions model physics
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
Perturbation of the Model
Deutscher Wetterdienst
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
Perturbation of the Model
Alter parameters in physics parametrizations
entr_sc=0.0003 entrain_sc=0.002
rlam_heat=1. rlam_heat=10.
rlam_heat=1. rlam_heat=0.1
…q_crit…
…tur_len…
11 2233 44
55
requires careful tuning affect forecast, but not long-term quality
11
22
33
55
44
Deutscher Wetterdienst
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
Deutscher Wetterdienst
Perturbation of Boundary Conditions
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
Deutscher Wetterdienst
Perturbation of Boundary Conditions
COSMO-EU
GME
COSMO-DE
Reminder: operational chain
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
Deutscher Wetterdienst
Perturbation of Boundary Conditions
COSMO-DE-EPS(DWD, Germany) COSMO-DE-EPS(DWD, Germany)
Part of COSMO-SREPS(ARPA-SIMC, Bologna)Part of COSMO-SREPS(ARPA-SIMC, Bologna)
Part of AEMet Ensemble(AEMet, Spain)Part of AEMet Ensemble(AEMet, Spain)
(Garcia-Moya et al., 2007)(Marsigli et al., 2008)(Gebhardt et al. 2009)
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
Deutscher Wetterdienst
Perturbation of Boundary Conditions
COSMO-DE-EPS(DWD, Germany) COSMO-DE-EPS(DWD, Germany)
Part of COSMO-SREPS(ARPA-SIMC, Bologna)Part of COSMO-SREPS(ARPA-SIMC, Bologna)
Part of AEMet Ensemble(AEMet, Spain)Part of AEMet Ensemble(AEMet, Spain)
GME IFS UM NCEPCOSMO-DE (2,8km) COSMOCOSMO COSMOCOSMO
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
Deutscher Wetterdienst
Perturbation of Boundary Conditions
long-term Plan: take boundaries from ICON Ensemble
COSMO-DE-EPS(DWD, Germany) COSMO-DE-EPS(DWD, Germany)
Part of COSMO-SREPS(ARPA-SIMC, Bologna)Part of COSMO-SREPS(ARPA-SIMC, Bologna)
Part of AEMet Ensemble(AEMet, Spain)Part of AEMet Ensemble(AEMet, Spain)
GME IFS UM NCEPCOSMO-DE (2,8km) COSMOCOSMO COSMOCOSMO
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
Deutscher Wetterdienst
Perturbation of Initial Conditions
first experiments:
perturb “nudging” at forecast start
current work:
use differences between control and COSMO-SREPS
plans:
Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (COSMO project KENDA)
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
Deutscher Wetterdienst
Current Status of Perturbation
X X
initial conditions boundary conditions model physics
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
Deutscher Wetterdienst
Back to the List of Tasks
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
Deutscher Wetterdienst
Tasks within Project
implementation of perturbations
post-processing
verification & diagnostics
visualization
early user feedback
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
Deutscher Wetterdienst
More Information
• poster at this COSMO General Meeting
• past meetings: download presentationshttp://www.metoffice.gov.uk/conference/srnwp_workshop/presentations/session_3/18_Theis_EPS09.pdfhttp://www.pks.mpg.de/~dswc09/ contribution files
• future meetings: ECAM/EMS, SRNWP/EWGLAM, COSMO User Seminar
• publications:Gebhardt et al (2008): Experimental ensemble forecasts of precipitation based on a convection-resolving model. Atmospheric Science Letters 9, 67-72.
Gebhardt et al (2009): Uncertainties in COSMO-DE precipitation forecasts introduced by model perturbations and variation of lateral boundaries. Submitted to Atmospheric Research.
• contact: [email protected], [email protected]
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
Deutscher Wetterdienst
Extra Slides
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
Deutscher Wetterdienst
Current Experiments
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
Deutscher Wetterdienst
Current Status
X X
initial conditions boundary conditions model physics
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
Deutscher Wetterdienst
Current Experiments
no perturbationof initial conditions
11 22 33 44 55
GMEGME
IFSIFS
UMUM
NCEPNCEP
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
Deutscher Wetterdienst
no perturbationof initial conditions
11 22 33 44 55
GMEGME
IFSIFS
UMUM
NCEPNCEP
Current Experiments
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
Deutscher Wetterdienst
mm/24h
24h accumulations of precipitation [mm]
2 July 2007, 00 UTC + 24h
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
Deutscher Wetterdienst
no perturbationof initial conditions
11 22 33 44 55
GMEGME
IFSIFS
UMUM
NCEPNCEP
Current Experiments
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
Deutscher Wetterdienst
mm/24h
24h accumulations of precipitation [mm]
2 July 2007, 00 UTC + 24h
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
Deutscher Wetterdienst
Ensemble Diagnostics
- how do perturbations affect the forecast?
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
Deutscher Wetterdienst
Effect of perturbations on precipitation
boundaries:
dominate after a few hours
(not necessarily, also case-dependent)
physics:
dominate during first few hours
(Gebhardt et al., 2009)
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
Deutscher Wetterdienst
Ensemble Dispersion (precipitation)
NormalizedVariance Difference
= variance (BC only) - variance (PHY only)
normalized bysum of variances
(Gebhardt et al., 2009)
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
Deutscher Wetterdienst
Ensemble Dispersion (precipitation)
NormalizedVariance Difference
= variance (BC only) - variance (PHY only)
normalized bysum of variances
for individual days(Gebhardt et al., 2009)
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
Deutscher Wetterdienst
Ensemble Verification
- how good is the Ensemble (at this stage)?
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
Deutscher Wetterdienst
Verification Data Sets
RADAR
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
Deutscher Wetterdienst
11 22 33 44 55
GMEGME
IFSIFS
UMUM
NCEPNCEP
Verification Data Sets (Ensemble Forecasts)
Period:1 July – 16 Sep 2008
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
Deutscher Wetterdienst
11 22 33 44 55
GMEGME
IFSIFS
UMUM
NCEPNCEP
Verification Data Sets (Ensemble Forecasts)
Period:1 July – 16 Sep 2008
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
Deutscher Wetterdienst
11 22 33 44 55
GMEGME
IFSIFS
UMUM
NCEPNCEP
Period:1 July – 16 Sep 2008
when all 15 membersavailable(60% of days)
Verification Data Sets (Ensemble Forecasts)
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
Deutscher Wetterdienst
Probabilistic Verification Measures
Traditional:
- Brier Score, Brier Skill Score
- ROC curve
- Reliability Diagram
- Talagrand Diagram
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
Deutscher Wetterdienst
Talagrand Diagram
24h precipitation
Rank
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
Deutscher Wetterdienst
Talagrand Diagram
24h precipitation
Rank
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15
observation
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
Deutscher Wetterdienst
Talagrand Diagram
24h precipitation
Rank
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15
- underdispersive !
- add IC perturbations and statistical PP !
- also look into more spread measures
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
Deutscher Wetterdienst
Future Plan:
Statistical Postprocessing
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
Deutscher Wetterdienst
Statistical Postprocessing (just starting)
Aim:
improve quality of ensemble products
(probabilities, quantiles, mean, entire pdf, extremes,…)
Focus:
Precipitation
1. exceedance probabilities (“30% probability of heavy rain”)
2. entire pdf, extremes?
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
Deutscher Wetterdienst
Statistical Postprocessing (just starting)
Envisaged Methods:
1. Logistic Regression
+ spatio-temporal neighbourhood
+ lagged average ensemble
2. Bayesian Approach
cooperation with P.Friederichs
calibration of probabilities
entire pdf
enhance sample
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
Deutscher Wetterdienst
Reaching the User
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
Deutscher Wetterdienst
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
Deutscher Wetterdienst
Reaching the user (= “serve mankind”)
• make ensemble forecast accessible
• choose a good format and reduce information
• work towards acceptance
• work towards correct (useful) interpretation
• work towards integration into decision making
• increase trust in forecast provider
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
Deutscher Wetterdienst
Visualization in NinJo
- make forecasts accessible
- choose formats
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
Deutscher Wetterdienst
Visualization in NinJo
NinJo = visualization tool for forecasters
Challenge:
- amount of data
- good communication of complex matters
- must fit into an existing system (NinJo)
1 computer scientist, 4 years (Roland Ohl)
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
Deutscher Wetterdienst
ExceedanceProbabilitiesin %
Probability ofRR > 1 mm/h
EPS Product Example:
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
Quantilesrange of80% probability(= uncertainty)
1h-sums of precipitation [mm]
2m-temperature [°C]
EPS Product Example:
10% probability (= risk):interesting for some users
Deutscher Wetterdienst
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
Deutscher Wetterdienst
Further Plans: Ensemble Navigation Window (draft)
also possible tolook at individual members
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
Deutscher Wetterdienst
Early User Feedback
- work towards acceptance
- work towards useful interpretation
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
Deutscher Wetterdienst
Early User Feedback
- Forecasters (DWD)
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
„Event somewhere in 2,8km-Box“„Event somewhere in 2,8km-Box“
Deutscher Wetterdienst
EPS Product Example: Probability Maps
%
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
„Event somewhere in 2,8km-Box“„Event somewhere in 2,8km-Box“
Deutscher Wetterdienst
EPS Product Example: Probability Maps
%Forecasters:Probabilities are too low!
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
„Event somewhere in 2,8km-Box“„Event somewhere in 2,8km-Box“
Deutscher Wetterdienst
EPS Product Example: Probability Maps
%Forecasters:Probabilities are too low!
Reason:
Forecasters are used tolarger reference regions
Experiment:
present probabilitieson coarser grid
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
„Event somewhere in 2,8km-Box“„Event somewhere in 2,8km-Box“
Deutscher Wetterdienst
EPS Product Example: Probability Maps
%
„Event somewhere in 28km-Box“„Event somewhere in 28km-Box“
Forecasters:Probabilities are too low!
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
Deutscher Wetterdienst
Early User Feedback
- Hydrologists
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
Deutscher Wetterdienst
- atmosphere ischaotic system
- limited predictability
- specify uncertainties
- better than giving out wrong forecasts
This is me, talking to some hydrologists
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
Deutscher Wetterdienst
- atmosphere ischaotic system
- limited predictability
- specify uncertainties
- better than giving out wrong forecasts
this will increase trust,because I am doingthe right thing
This is me, talking to some hydrologists
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
Deutscher Wetterdienst
- atmosphere ischaotic system
- limited predictability
- specify uncertainties
- better than giving out wrong forecasts
Why don‘t you put all effortsinto improving your model?
Please point out the best member in your ensemble!
this will increase trust,because I am doingthe right thing
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
Deutscher Wetterdienst
- atmosphere ischaotic system
- limited predictability
- specify uncertainties
- better than giving out wrong forecasts
Why don‘t you put all effortsinto improving your model?
Please point out the best member in your ensemble!
this will increase trust,because I am doingthe right thing
I do not believe thatthe atmosphere is achaotic system.
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
Deutscher Wetterdienst
- atmosphere ischaotic system
- limited predictability
- specify uncertainties
- better than giving out wrong forecasts
Why don‘t you put all effortsinto improving your model?
Please point out the best member in your ensemble!
this will increase trust,because I am doingthe right thing
I do not believe thatthe atmosphere is achaotic system.
I do not trust thisforecast provideranymore
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
Deutscher Wetterdienst
- atmosphere ischaotic system
- limited predictability
- specify uncertainties
- better than giving out wrong forecasts
Why don‘t you put all effortsinto improving your model?
Please point out the best member in your ensemble!
this will increase trust,because I am doingthe right thing
I do not believe thatthe atmosphere is achaotic system.
I do not trust thisforecast provideranymore
Educate the user?Yes, and also understand the user.
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
Deutscher Wetterdienst
Research about the Users
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
Deutscher Wetterdienst
Center of Attention:The Model
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
Deutscher Wetterdienst
Center of Attention:The Human Being
(WAS*IS Workshop, 2005)
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
Deutscher Wetterdienst
Literature about perception of ensemble forecasts:
Demeritt, D., Cloke, H., Pappenberger, F., Thielen, J., Bartholmes, J. and M.-H. Ramos (2007): Ensemble predictions and perceptions of risk, uncertainty, and error in flood forecasting. Environmental Hazards 7, 115-127.
Gigerenzer, G., Hertwig, R., van den Broek, E., Fasolo, B. and K.V.Katsikopoulos (2005): „A 30% Chance of Rain Tomorrow“: How does the public understand probabilistic weather forecasts? Risk Analysis 25(3), 623-629.
Joslyn, S., Pak, K., Jones, D., Pyles, J. and E. Hunt (2007): The effect of probabilistic information on threshold forecasts. Weather and Forecasting 22, 804-812.
Morss, R.E., Demuth, J.L. and J.K. Lazo (2008): Communicating Uncertainty in Weather Forecasts: A Survey of the U.S. Public. Weather and Forecasting 23, 974-991.
Morss, R.E., Wilhelmi, V.W., Downton, M.W. and E. Gruntfest (2005): Flood risk, uncertainty, and scientific information for decision making: Lessons from an interdisciplinary project. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 86(11), 1593-1601.
National Research Council (2006): Completing the Forecast: Characterizing and Communicating Uncertaintiy for Better Decisions Using Weather and Climate Forecasts. National Academies Press, 124 pp.
Roulston, M.S., Bolton, G.E., Kleit, A.N. and A.L. Sears-Collins (2006): A laboratory study of the benefits of including uncertainty information in weather forecasts. Weather and Forecasting 21, 116-122.
extremely interestin
g for m
e
extremely interestin
g for m
e
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
Deutscher Wetterdienst
Back to the Project COSMO-DE-EPS:
Summary and Challenges
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
Deutscher Wetterdienst
Summary of Project COSMO-DE-EPS
• setting up an ensemble with a complex NWP model
• one of the first convection-permitting ensembles (with operational perspective)
• simple approach first, improve later („just do it“)
• covering all parts of forecast chain (perturbations, products, postprocessing, verification, users)
10th September 2009 Theis, Gebhardt, Buchhold, Paulat, Ohl, Ben Bouallègue, Peralta Project COSMO-DE-EPS
Deutscher Wetterdienst
Challenges (Forecast Provider’s Perspective)
• “describe nature”:
try to be scientifically appropriate probabilistic approach
• “provide forecasts”:
technical requirements: fast, stable, maintainable
• “serve mankind”:
convey benefits to the real world