Developing an Accurate Cash Flow Forecast

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Frederik Westerling, Senior Manager, Deloitte & Touche LLP Gregory Person, Global Vice President of Presales, Kyriba June 12, 2014 Leveraging Treasury Technology to Improve Cash Forecasting

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The value of an accurate cash forecast is very well understood, but for many organizations the reality of developing an accurate cash forecast seems to be beyond their reach. While most treasury professionals understand the benefits of reducing overdraft facilities to better manage bank costs, finding trapped cash to invest in the business and/or reimburse debt, and optimizing interest income/expense - many are still dealing with the lack of visibility or integration with systems that control banks and their ERP system. Some organizations are still using spreadsheet solutions which leaves them vulnerable to failures that often prove to be very difficult - or even impossible to recover. In this webinar the speaker panel: -Addressed some of the common problems associated with developing an accurate cash forecast -Provided you with some immediate helpful pointers on how to improve your cash forecast -Discussed how to proactively get ahead of those obstacles in order to deliver a more accurate cash forecast that delivers true value for your organization

Transcript of Developing an Accurate Cash Flow Forecast

  • 1. Frederik Westerling, Senior Manager, Deloitte & Touche LLP Gregory Person, Global Vice President of Presales, Kyriba June 12, 2014 Leveraging Treasury Technology to Improve Cash Forecasting

2. # 2014 Kyriba Corporation. All rights reserved. PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL. Frederik Westerling Senior Manager, Deloitte & Touche LLP Frederik has over 15 years of corporate treasury experience both as a practitioner and a consultant. Frederik has had engagements and work experience within the US and Europe focusing on mergers and acquisitions, corporate treasury operations and treasury technology. Frederik has assisted clients with setting up several Treasury functions for targeted spin-offs, including designing, testing, and implementing Cash Forecasting programs. Gregory Person Vice President, Global Presales, Kyriba Gregory has been a finance and treasury practitioner for 14+ years, with extensive experience in global treasury operations including U.S. and international cash management and strategic cash flow forecasting, working with large multinational corporate treasury departments. Over his career, Gregory has held positions with Microsoft, EMC Corporation, Boston Scientific and Wall Street Systems, and recently joined Kyriba to lead its global presales organization. Gregory is a Certified Treasury Professional (CTP). Todays speakers 3. 3 2014 Deloitte Development LLP. All rights reserved. PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL. Historically, the visibility over cash was closely related to bank balance reporting. However, the definition has widened to include visibility over projected cash inflows and outflows globally and associated FX risk exposures faced by the companies. Hence, it does not come as a surprise that visibility over cash and financial risk exposures is ranked as the biggest pain point by 36% of the respondents 29% of the survey respondents indicated inadequate treasury systems infrastructure as the second biggest pain point. Many corporate treasury functions continue to rely on spreadsheets and standalone online banking systems Treasury Pain Points* Ranking in above graph is based in the level of importance, where 1 is the most important and 4 is the least important. * Based on over 300 responses to Deloitte & Touches 2012 Treasury Strategy and Operations Survey as conducted in cooperation with gtnews As used in this document, "Deloitte" means Deloitte LLP. Please see www.deloitte.com/us/about for a detailed description of the legal structure of Deloitte LLP and its subsidiaries. This publication contains general information only and Deloitte is not, by means of this publication, rendering accounting, business, financial, investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice or services. This publication is not a substitute for such professional advice or services, nor should it be used as a basis for any decision or action that may affect your business. Before making any decision or taking any action that may affect your business, you should consult a qualified professional advisor. Deloitte shall not be responsible for any loss sustained by any person who relies on this publication. 4. 4 2014 Deloitte Development LLP. All rights reserved. PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL. Cash forecasting helps achieve many critical internal and external objectives, focused on liquidity risk management and overall business performance Why is cash forecasting important? Stakeholders Cash Flow Forecasting Objectives Executive Management Financial Planning And Analysis Corporate Treasury Regional / Local Treasury Center Capital & Long Term Investment Planning Subsidiary Dividend Repatriation Strategy Shareholder Dividend Planning Management Performance Reporting Company Valuation / Credit Rating Short-Term Liquidity Management Strategic Investments Planning Short-Term Investments Yield What are your primary cash flow forecasting objectives? Debt Covenant Compliance FX Exposure Management 5. 5 2014 Deloitte Development LLP. All rights reserved. PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL. Case study: spin-off Case Study Spin-off business has $19b in revenues, and $2b annual operating cash flow As a stand alone business, having an accurate view of its cash position over the short and medium term is vital KeyActivities Establish cash forecasting program and develop spreadsheet forecasting and reporting tool Establish joint ownership for cash forecasting process and accuracy between Treasury and operating segments Develop and validate initial forecast submissions from operating segments Establish process for forecast consolidation, variance analysis, reporting, and scenario analysis Configure TMS to facilitate consolidation of submitted forecasts Conduct variance analysis and provide feedback to operating segments on ways to enhance data quality Continue enhancing modeling capabilities operating segment forecasts Obtain deeper understand of drivers of cash forecast variance Understand impact of process on business and update business processes accordingly Continue working with TMS to leverage capabilities for cash forecast aggregation, variance analysis and reporting Establish Mid-Term forecasting capabilities On-board treasury resources to perform key program tasks Continue to refine drivers of cash forecast variance to enhance accuracy and data quality Establishment Stabilization and Go Live Refinement 6. 6 2014 Deloitte Development LLP. All rights reserved. PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL. Case study: spin-off (cont.) Case Study Spin-off business has $19b in revenues, and $2b annual operating cash flow As a stand alone business, having an accurate view of its cash position over the short and medium term is vital IndicatorsofSuccess Establishment of spreadsheet cash forecast consolidation and reporting tool TMS configuration and availability for forecast consolidation and reporting Establishment of cash forecasting program, cadence, policies and procedures Establishment of variance analysis methodology and reporting Enhanced communication between operating segments and with treasury Increased consistency in cash forecasts provided Active communications between operating segments and with treasury and enhanced understanding of business on treasurys part Improved accuracy through stable feedback on variances and explanations Greater compliance with forecast submission and variance reporting cadence Greater reliance on TMS capabilities Continued improvement of forecast accuracy and data quality Proactive communications between operating segments and with treasury Operating segments leverage CF data for planning and running of day-to-day operations Establishment Stabilization and Go Live Refinement 7. 7 2014 Deloitte Development LLP. All rights reserved. PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL. Lack of Accountability and Understanding Hindered Visibility to Timing of Cash Flows Risk for Omissions and Errors Reporting May Not Align with Management of Cash Pools Cash flow forecasting pain points 8. 8 2014 Deloitte Development LLP. All rights reserved. PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL. Cash flow forecasting considerations For their forecasting programs to be effective, companies should consider changes to key aspects of their operating model, processes and technology CF culture Joint ownership Subject matter experts Collaboration and communication Operating Model Process Structure and cadence Optimal forecasting techniques Variance analysis Technology Data gathering and integration Using treasury systems as an enabler Developing a robust set of tools 9. # 2014 Kyriba Corporation. All rights reserved. PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL. Benefits of effective cash flow forecasting Improve cash visibility Drive accurate short-term investing and financing decisions Indentify currency exposures Determine optimal intercompany cash allocation Support internal tax strategies Fund strategic initiatives Capex projects Acquisitions and milestones Share repurchase programs Enhance executive and shareholder reporting confidence CFO reporting Board of directors Rating agencies Earnings and quarterly reporting 10. # 2014 Kyriba Corporation. All rights reserved. PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL. Determine cash flow forecast objectives Avoid applying automation to ineffective process Evaluate forecast methodology Direct vs. indirect Statistical methods Historical trend predictive modeling Indentify cash flow key elements Bank balances and transactions AR AP Intercompany affiliates Tax Building a cash flow forecast structure Legal Payroll Treasury FP&A New business development 11. # 2014 Kyriba Corporation. All rights reserved. PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL. Validate optimal reporting output Appropriate reporting formats for specific audiences Design comprehensive and integrated workflow Technology to enhance controls and visibility Iterative process Accountability for all participants Understand your business Perform timely variance analysis Forecast to bank actuals Forecast version comparisons Building a cash flow forecast structure (cont.) 12. # 2014 Kyriba Corporation. All rights reserved. PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL. Integrated cash flow process Bank balances / transactions ERP (AR / AP) Treasury transactions Real time integration Subsidiaries Corporate (legal, tax, new business) Systematic input Centralized forecast collection Forecast modeling Forecast finalization / delivery Variance analysis Single Integrated Platform 13. # 2014 Kyriba Corporation. All rights reserved. PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL. Develop cross-functional efficiencies Repeatable and structured workflow Predictable cash flow trends Monitor fiscal strength of global organization Treasury has first access to bank balances and activity Proactively validate forecast accuracy Bank reported results trending to forecast Central corporate finance function to align Subsidiary / business unit forecast accuracy Direct forecast (Treasury) to indirect (FP&A) Working capital impact Treasurys strategic opportunities 14. # 2014 Kyriba Corporation. All rights reserved. PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL. Optimize intercompany balances Consolidate global operating bank balances Reduce interest expense / increase interest income Pay down external debt through more effective intercompany cash consolidation Opportunity to reduce short-term debt issuance duration Increase investment balance positions Improve executive management confidence Accurate and timely reporting Concise variance analysis Treasurys strategic opportunities (cont.) 15. # 2014 Kyriba Corporation. All rights reserved. PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL. Additional resources White Paper Short Term Cash Forecasting: Best Practices and Pitfalls to Avoid Download at: http://www.kyriba.com/resources/short- term-cash-forecasting-best-practices Slide replay: kyri.ba/cash-forecasting-webinar twitter.com/kyribacorp linkedin.com/company/kyriba-corporation kyriba.com/blog