Developing a Web-based Forecasting Tool for Nutrient Management
-
Upload
national-institute-of-food-and-agriculture -
Category
Environment
-
view
351 -
download
0
Transcript of Developing a Web-based Forecasting Tool for Nutrient Management
The Fertilizer Forecaster:guiding short‐term decisions in nutrient management
Project Director’s MeetingJuly 29, 2015
United States Department of Agriculture
National Instituteof Foodand Agriculture
This project was supported by Agriculture and Food Research Initiative Competitive Grant number 2012‐67019‐1929 from the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture.
Anthony Buda, Peter Kleinman, Ray Bryant, and Gordon FolmarUSDA Agricultural Research Service
Patrick Drohan, Jasmeet Lamba, Lauren Vitko, Doug Miller, Brian Bills, and Paul Knight
Penn State University
Seann Reed and Peter AhnertNOAA NWS Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center
• Applying fertilizers and manures at the wrong time increases the risk of surface water contamination.
CDT/Nabil K. Mark
Thursday, Feb. 12, 2009Thousands of fish killed ‐ Owner blames manure runoff from farm
Centre Daily Times
• Site assessment tools are currently seasonal (e.g., P Index), but daily recommendations would be helpful.
Daily decision making in nutrient management
Evaluate three runoff forecasting models
Work with a project advisory team to select one model (or a suite of models)
Test web‐based system to identify when and where to apply fertilizers and manures
Fertilizer Forecaster – when and where to apply fertilizers and manures
Allegheny Plateau
Piedmont
Coastal Plain
Ridge &Valley
Project watershedsAnderson Creek Watershed
Anderson Creek Spring Creek Watershed / Rock Springs
Spring Creek
Mahantango Creek Watershed
MahantangoCreek
Conewago Creek Watershed
ConewagoCreek
Sacramento (SAC) Soil Moisture Accounting (SMA) model
MARFC River Forecast Points
River Forecast Centers mainly use the SAC‐SMA model to provide timely flood forecasts for rivers and streams (MARFC has 215 forecasting points in the Mid‐Atlantic region).
Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting ModelNOAA’s flagship flood forecasting model
Sacramento (SAC) Soil Moisture Accounting (SMA) model
Mahantango Creek Experimental Watershed
WE‐38
Adapting NOAA’s SAC‐SMA model to runoff prediction in small basins
Surface runoff observed (cfs)
SAC‐SMA interflow +surface
runoff (cfs)
Interflow and surface runofftime series deemed best predictors of surface runoff occurrence in MahantangoCreek (outlet at Dalmatia, PA).
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
0 5,000 10,000 15,000
r2 = 0.80
Sacramento (SAC) Soil Moisture Accounting (SMA) model
Mahantango Creek Experimental Watershed
WE‐38
Surface runoff observed (cfs)
SAC‐SMA interflow +surface
runoff (cfs)
Interflow and surface runofftime series deemed best predictors of surface runoff occurrence in WE‐38. 0
50
100
150
200
0 50 100 150 200
r2 = 0.62
Adapting NOAA’s SAC‐SMA model to runoff prediction in small basins
&
Runoff contributing areas
vs.
Runoff No runoff
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5
Moisture thresholds
Runo
ff coefficient
Vol. soil moisture (m3 m‐3)
θ 0.36 m3 m‐3 Large stormSmall storm
Creating meaningful runoff risk thresholdsmoving beyond simple runoff occurrence forecasts
Sacramento (SAC) Soil Moisture Accounting (SMA) model
• Saturation ratio = θ − θrθs − θr , where
• SAC‐SMA expresses soil moisture as a saturation ratio
θ = volumetric water contentθr = permanent wilting pointθs = porosity
Saturation ratios predicted by the SAC‐SMA model are a good proxy for surface (i.e., top 25 cm) moisture conditions in the WE‐38 watershed.
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1Mean volumetric
water
content (m
3m
‐3)
SAC‐SMA saturation ratio
Vol. soil moisture = 0.17 (saturation ratio) + 0.15r2 = 0.70; p < 0.001
Volumetric water content (top 25 cm) versus SAC‐SMA saturation ratios (top 25 cm)
Does SAC‐SMA capture daily saturation patterns?comparing modeled and measured moisture in WE‐38
Runoff volume (m3)
WE‐38 Watershed(7.3 km2)
Gburek et al., 1999; 2002
Precipitation depth (m)
÷
Runoff contributing area (m2)
Calculating runoff contributing areasborrowing a concept from the Pennsylvania Phosphorus Index
Gburek et al., 1999; 2002
Runoff contributing area (m2)
Contributing distance (m)
Stream length (m)
÷
WE‐38 stream length = 11,250 m
WE‐38 Watershed(7.3 km2)
Runoff contributing distancesderived from contributing area and stream length
10 m contributing distance
The importance of antecedent moisture nitial runoff contributing distance depends on soil saturation
Runoff contributing distance (m)
SAC‐SMA saturation ratio versus runoff contributing distance
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
0 100 200 300 400 500 60010
Soil restrictive layers drive runoff generationferring the contributing distance of saturation excess runoff
Soils prone to infiltration excess
On average, soil restrictive layers extend about 75 m from the stream, suggesting a saturation excess contributing distance of about 150 m
Mattern Watershed runoff
poorly drained soil(restrictive layer)
well drained soil90 L
22,000 L
Upslope areas increasingly likely to be hydrologically connected
Saturation excess region
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Runoff contributing distance (m)
Setting a saturation excess runoff thresholdslope fields likely to connect at contributing distances > 150 m
SAC‐SMA runoff versus runoff contributing distance
r2 = 0.70
150
17.5
Runoff risk thresholdsproposed decision rules for runoff risk
Low Risk
SAC‐SMA saturation ratio < 0.6
SAC‐SMA interflow + surface runoff 0 cfs
Moderate Risk
SAC‐SMA saturation ratio > 0.6
SAC‐SMA interflow + surface runoff > 0 cfs and < 17.5 cfs
High Risk
SAC‐SMA saturation ratio > 0.6
SAC‐SMA interflow + surface
Are these thresholds reasonable? runoff patterns for a moderate risk event
Forecast for May 26, 2011
Moderate Risk
SAC‐SMA saturation ratio = 0.64
SAC‐SMA interflow + surface runoff = 16 cfs
Runoff monitoring
Runoff observed
No runoff observed
Are these thresholds reasonable? runoff patterns for a moderate risk event
High Risk
SAC‐SMA saturation ratio = 0.97
SAC‐SMA interflow + surface runoff = 70 cfs
Runoff monitoring
Forecast for September 8, 2011 (Tropical Storm Lee)
Runoff observed
No runoff observed
The Gerrity skill score for a 3 3 verification table• Ranges from ‐∞ (no skill) to 1 (perfect skill)• Gives more credit for correct forecasts of rarer events and
less credit for correct forecasts of common events
Observed riskLOW MOD HIGH
LOW
MOD
HIGHForecast risk
(a) Joint probability distribution
p (f1, o1) p (f1, o2) p (f1, o3)
p (f2, o1) p (f2, o2) p (f2, o3)
p (f3, o1) p (f3, o2) p (f3, o3)
(b) Scoring weightsObserved risk
LOW MOD HIGH
s 1, 1 s 1, 2 s 1, 3
s 2, 1 s 2, 2 s 2, 3
s 3, 1 s 3, 2 s 3, 3
Are these thresholds reasonable? assessing model skill for the WE‐38 watershed
Wilks, 2011
Are these thresholds reasonable? assessing model skill for the WE‐38 watershed
Assessed forecast skill using three years (2010 to 2012) of daily stormflow (determined by hydrograph separation) and soil moisture data from the WE‐38 watershed.
Observed riskLOW MOD HIGH
LOW
MOD
HIGHForecast risk
(a) Joint probability distribution (b) Scoring weightsObserved risk
LOW MOD HIGH
0.46 ‐0.50 ‐1.00
‐0.50 0.55 0.05
‐1.00 0.05 52.13
225 74 0
101 181 1
0 38 5
Total (n) = 625
0.36 0.12 0.00
0.16 0.29 0.00
0.00 0.06 0.01
Probability 0.52 0.47 0.01Wilks, 2011
Are these thresholds reasonable?preliminary results suggest yes, but more testing needed
Gerrity Skill score for three years of observed data was 0.61,
indicating positive predictive skill.
The Fertilizer Forecastera vision for what the prototype might look like
Watershed scale view
wodgh
f risk
ypothetical runoff risk forecast wing a low to moderate runoff for the 88 2×2 km forecast that make up the
Zoomed in viewThe zoomed in view would show the extent of the moderate runoff risk buffer, defining areas expected to be hydrologically connected to the stream.
Summary and next stepsl moisture and runoff contributing a thresholds express runoff risk in ms of variable source area hydrology.
ial results suggest that these esholds provide a meaningful and lful representation of runoff risk.
ntinued corroboration of the soil trictive layer model is needed to refine as prone to saturation excess runoff.
rototype of the runoff risk tool based these thresholds is in development and l b il bl f l ti t ti