DEUTSCHE BANK PAPER CONFERENCE LONDON 14 NOVEMBER 2007€¦ · MAGENTA\ROADSHOW PRESENTATION\12...
Transcript of DEUTSCHE BANK PAPER CONFERENCE LONDON 14 NOVEMBER 2007€¦ · MAGENTA\ROADSHOW PRESENTATION\12...
DEUTSCHE BANK PAPER CONFERENCE
LONDON
14 NOVEMBER 2007
PAGE 1
AGENDA
Strategic Overview
Growth
Markets
Financials
PAGE 2
AGENDA
Strategic Overview
Growth
Markets
Financials
PAGE 3
MONDI AT A GLANCE
Sales H1 2007 (1)
Products
Positions in Europe
€ 0.2B
South AfricaSouth Africa
€ 0.3B
merchant /newsprintmerchant /newsprint
€ 1.7B
No. 1 Kraft Paper(2)
No. 2 Kraftliner(2)
No. 1 Bag Converting(3)
No. 3 Corrugated Packaging (4)
No. 1 Corrugated Packaging in SA(3)
No. 1 Rigid Plastics in SA
No. 1 in Cartonboardin SA
No. 1 Newsprint in South Africa(2)
Leading Positions in Emerging Europe(5)
€ 1.0B
No. 1 Office Paper(2)
No. 2 UCWF(2)
- . .(1) Segment revenues, including inter-segment revenues, excluding associates. (2) Based on production capacity. (3) Based on sales. (4) Management estimate based on sales. Sources: RISI, Pöyry Forest Industry Consulting, Freedonia, BMI Foodpack, PAMSA, Mondi
PAGE 4
MONDI STRATEGIC DRIVERS
Leading market position— Leading market positions — High exposure to:
– Attractive product segments– Attractive geographies
Strong asset base— Upstream production cost advantages
– 100% of kraftliner and 91% of universaloffice paper in lowest cost quartile
— Vertically integrated– Up to 51% self-sufficient low cost wood
Focus on performance— Comprehensive Business Excellence
Programmes— Continuous cost reduction and productivity
improvement
Growth— Organic and through acquisition
Mondi Group operating assets
70%
30%
Emerging markets Mature markets
Mondi group net operating assets June 2007
61%
39%
Emerging markets Mature markets
Indicative Position 2010
Mondi Group sales H1 2007
45%
55%
Emerging markets Mature markets
Mondi Group sales
60%
40%
Emerging markets Mature markets
PAGE 5
UCWF and Corrugated demand growth per region
Demand growth in %.1Sources: EMGE Woodfree Forecast Report; October 2007 for Eastern and Western Europe. World Paper markets 2020, Pöyry 2005 Edition for CIS. CIS market growth from 2004 –2010.2Source: ICCA.
CISEEWE
9,8
1,3
6,6
UCWF 2006 - 2011 demand growth (in %)1 Corrugated 2005 - 2010 demand growth (in %)2
EE
8,2
WE
1,8
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UPSTREAM PRODUCTION COST ADVANTAGES LOW-COST POSITIONS
Universal Office Paper
Note: The graphs show delivered cost to Frankfurt, Germany European Producers Sources: Pöyry Forest Industry Consulting, Mondi
Mondi Paper Machines
Unbleached KraftlinerWhite-top Kraftliner
Cumulative capacity (Kt/a)
00 3,000
100% of Mondi Unbleached
Kraftliner capacity
€/t 1,500
91% of Mondi Universal Office Paper Capacity0
0 3,500Cumulative capacity (Kt/a)
Cumulative capacity (Kt/a)
€/t 800
1,400
100% of Mondi White-top Kraftliner
capacity
00
€/t 500
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25 25 2630 30
3337 39
4247
Brazil
South A
frica
Russia
Chile
Austra
liaPola
ndPor
tugal
Sweden
Finland
France
SUPERIOR ACCESS TO LOW-COST WOOD
Average Hardwood and Softwood Costs (€/m3, Q2 2007)
Source: Pöyry Forest Industry Consulting
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BENEFITING FROM INTEGRATED VALUE CHAIN
(1) Refers to Mondi’s demand and self-sufficiency of packaging paper (including MP and MPSA). Paper is the end product for non-packaging businesses.Notes: 2006 figures. Forestry figures are based on annual allowable cut (excluding firewood).Source: Mondi
Mondi’s own availability
Mondi’s own demand
Forestry Pulp Paper
Potential self sufficiency 51%
7.6mm3
14.8mm3
91%
3.5Mt
3.8Mt
154%(1)
5.8MtPackaging: 3.3Mt
2.1Mt(1)
PAGE 9
AGENDA
Strategic Overview
Growth
Markets
Financials
PAGE 10
GROWTH
At 30th June 2006 61% of asset base was deployed in emerging markets.
Estimated emerging market share of asset base will grow to 70% by close of 2010
Major investments targeted at emerging markets:- Containerboard and box plant – Eastern Europe- Syktyvkar modernisation expansion – Russia- Tire Kutsan acquisition - Turkey
PAGE 11
CONTAINERBOARD EXPANSION PROJECT
New 470,000 tons lightweight recycled containerboard machine plus a new
corrugated box plant with capacity of approximately 250M m2/year
corrugated board production
Clear cost leader in Europe
Investment cost of circa €350M
Order for main machinery was placed in September 2007
Start-up expected in mid 2009
Investigating option of investing in own recovered paper collection
operation
Source: Mondi
PAGE 12
CONTAINERBOARD EXPANSION PROJECT –PROJECT RATIONALE
Target high-growth lightweight recycled containerboard marketSupported by growing manufacturing base in CEE region which has resulted in a recycled containerboard supply deficit (0.7M tons in 2006)Efficient supply to state-of-the-art corrugators with 2.8m widthLower capital expenditure due to brownfield investment
Leverage Mondi Packaging paper sales network in EuropeExpand leading market position in strongly growing Polish corrugated packaging market by adding a state-of-the-art box plant with favourable logistic costs due to location next to the RCB mill
100
150
200
250
300
350
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000
Cumulative capacity (1 000 t/a)
€/t
Recycled Fluting Cost Curve
PM CEE Light
Note: The graph shows manufacturing cost.Source: Mondi/Pöyry Forest Industry Consulting
PAGE 13
SYKTYVKAR MILL - PROJECT SCOPE
New and expanded
Wood handling facilities
Recovery boiler and turbine
Evaporation of Black Liquor
Limekiln
Pulp dryer
Upgraded/Rebuilt
Two chemical pulp lines
PM14 UCWF machine
PM21 containerboard machine
Benefits include
Lower operating costs
Improved efficiencies
Expanded electricity generating capacity
190,000 tpa increase in pulp production capacity
52,000 tpa increase in UCWF production capacity
46,000 tpa increase in containerboard
Reduced environmental footprint
PAGE 14
SYKTYVKAR PROJECT - MARKET FORECAST
This Project will enable Mondi to benefit from the strong growth in demand for UCWF and containerboard in the domestic Russian market
(1) Based on Mondi ResearchSource: Pöyry (World Paper Markets up to 2020); Mondi Analysis
UCWF / Cut size Paper Demand ForecastCEE incl. Russia
1.7
2.6
3.1
0
1
2
3
4
(mt)
2004 2010 2015
5,7%
CIS Cutsize (C+ Grade)(1)
0.60.7
0.70.8
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
(mt)
‘07 ‘08 ‘09
8,7%
‘10
CAGR
CAGR
Russia
115
195
275
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2010
(kt)
9,1%
2005 2015
White-top liner Demand Forecast
Source: Pöyry (White-top Kraftliner and White-top Testlinercost competitiveness and Market Outlook); February 2007
PAGE 15
SYKTYVKAR OPERATIONAL ACHIVEMENTS
The Russian operation Syktyvkar has been a success story for Mondi, outperforming in the areas of safety, productivity, costs and environmental management
100
120
140
160
180
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
%
Syktyvkar (Russia)(²)
Management control acquired in 2002
Integrated operations
13% p.a.(¹)
(1) CAGR. (2) Forestry workers included. Note: Tons per capita based on employees year average Source: Mondi
In the process Mondi has developed highly valued relationships with the local government and stakeholders, which in conjunctionwith the above, positions Mondi uniquely to fully optimise this attractive value creating opportunity
Volume per capita
PAGE 16
SYKTYVKAR - MILESTONES
Milestones of the Project:
Main equipment vendors chosen July/August 2007
Start construction April 2008
Project completion mid-2010
PAGE 17
ACQUISITION TIRE KUTSAN, TURKEY
On September 3, 2007 Mondi Packaging acquired 54% of Tire Kutsan, the
leading Turkish corrugated packaging company
The company has one paper mill producing 120,000 tons of recycled
containerboard plus 5 corrugated box plants in Turkey with a board production
capacity of approximately 450M m2/year
The company was acquired from the Ülker Group, a leading Turkish family
owned group with sales of USD 7B mainly in the food business. The Ülker
Group will keep 10% in Tire Kustan for 3 years and Mondi Packaging and the
Ülker Group have signed a business cooperation agreement
The acquisition price for 54% was USD 106M equivalent to a cash and debt free
enterprise value for 100% of c. €190M
The remaining shares are traded on Istanbul Stock Exchange and Mondi
Packaging is currently in the process of making a mandatory tender offer
Source: Mondi
PAGE 18
2000 2005 2010 CAGR M m2 CAGR M m2 2005 2010EPoland 1.129 2.054 2.986 12,7% 925 7,8% 932 39 53 77Russia 1.124 2.351 3.464 15,9% 1.227 8,1% 1.113 143 16 25Turkey 1.400 2.111 3.701 8,6% 711 11,9% 1.590 73 29 47Other EE 2.048 3.168 4.198 9,1% 1.120 5,8% 1.030 110 29 36Total EE 5.701 9.684 14.349 11,2% 3.983 8,2% 4.665 375 26 38Total WE 33.790 35.574 38.962 1,0% 1.784 1,8% 3.388 394 90 97EUROPE 39.491 45.258 53.311 2,8% 5.767 3,3% 8.053 769 59 69Source: ICCA
Production in M m2 Growth 00-05 Growth 05-10 Prod. / capitaPop 05
ACQUISITION TIRE KUTSANPROJECT RATIONALE
Turkey is forecasted to have the highest growth rates in corrugated
packaging in Europe with 12% per annum or additional 1.6 M m2 between
2005 and 2010
Acquisition makes Mondi Packaging the market leader in Turkey and Emerging
Europe in corrugated
Reinforces Mondi’s strategy of high emerging market exposure
Strengthens Mondi Packaging’s position in the European corrugated market by
expanding its European footprint
Source: Mondi
PAGE 19
AGENDA
Strategic Overview
Growth
Markets
Financials
PAGE 20
INDUSTRY FUNDAMENTALS: EUROPEAN UNCOATED FINE PAPER
Circa 12 million tonne market, growing at 3% 1 pa— Western Europe 2% 2— Eastern Europe 7% 2European capacity closures in 2006/2007 of 720,000 tpaFollowing these closures, capacity utilisation anticipated to be attractiveFavourable demand supply balance forecast for foreseeable futureOnly confirmed major expansion in Europe is a new 500Ktpa machine at Portucel’s Setubal mill, planned for commissioning in Q3 2009
(1) Volume growth based on 2000 to 2006 demand estimates by Pöyry Forest Industry Consulting.
(2) 2005 - 2006(3) Demand estimates by Pöyry Forest Industry Consulting.(4) Q4 2001 – Q3 2007.
Sources: Mondi, Pöyry Forest Industry Consulting, CEPIFINE, RISI, PIX (FOEX Indexes Oy Ltd)
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
2001 2004 2007
€/to
nne
PAGE 21
EUROPEAN DEMAND AND OPERATING RATES EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG FOR UNCOATED FINE PAPER
0102030405060708090100110
2008
8.590
2009
8.815
2010
9.070
2011
Operating RatesDemand
1,9%
01.000
8.270
11.00012.000
2.0003.0004.0005.0006.0007.0008.0009.000
Demand (kt) Operating Rate (%)
2006
8.410
2007
8.64010.000
Europe 30
Source: EMGE Woodfree Forecast Report; October 2007
0
20
40
60
80
100
7.405
2006
7.495
2007
7.645
2008
7.555
2009
7.705
2010
7.880
2011
1,3%
0
10.000
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
Demand (kt) Operating Rate (%)
W. Europe 16
995915865
0
20
40
60
80
100
2006 2007 2008
1.035
2009
1.110
2010
1.190
2011
6,6%
0
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
500
Demand (kt) Operating Rate (%)E. Europe 14
Capacity closures of 180kt in 2006 and 540kt in 2007 (Source: CEPIFINE-March 2007)
PAGE 22
INDUSTRY FUNDAMENTALS: EUROPEAN CONTAINERBOARD AND CORRUGATED PACKAGING
Circa 26 million tonne market growing at 2.7% 1 pa— Western Europe 1.4% 1
— Eastern Europe 11.0% 1
Good demand growth, particularly in Germany and Emerging EuropeCapacity closures in recycled grades of 2.4 mtpa in 2005/2006 Now operating at attractive capacity utilisation levelsAside from Modern Karton in Turkey (400 ktpa), no new paper machine capacity scheduled until mid to late 2009
(1) Growth on tonnage basis 2000 to 2006 based on 2006 forecasts. (2) Q4 2001 – Q3 2007.
Sources: ICCA, RISI, Pöyry Forest Industry Consulting and PIX (FOEX Indexes Oy Ltd)
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
2001 2004 2007
€/to
nne
Kraftliner 175 gTestliner 2White top Kraftliner
PAGE 23
The impact on Mondi should be limited for the following reasons:o UCWF:
– 8% of volume exposed to exports (about 4% for cut size)– Relative high entry barriers (distribution channels, Customer own labels,
environmental standing of overseas suppliers)o Corrugated:
– Overall limited exposure to exchange rates as corrugated is largely traded on a regional level
Coated and graphic grades (which Mondi not exposed to) see much higher trade flows – circa 20% export dependency.
While current USD makes Europe attractive for imports and pressures exports, overall threat limited
PAGE 24
Nevertheless with the exception of the export heavy Kraft paper, the impact on Mondi’s grades is limited
Overview of Export dependence European Paper Business (Imports, Exports and Net Trade in % of Production)
Newsprint
21,5
-0,4
21,2
Uncoated Mechanical
23,5
-0,6
22,9
Coated Mechanical
8,6
-4,1
4,4
Uncoated Woodfree
27,1
-3,2
23,8
Coated Woodfree
6,6
-2,6
4,0
Sanitary and Household
9,0
-4,4
4,6
Container-board
29,0
-7,2
21,7
CartonBoards
24,4
-2,8
21,6
14,1
34,4
-7,4
27,0
WrappingsKraftpaper
Imports in % of ProductionNet Exports in % of Production
-9,3
4,9
Exports in % of Production
Note: CEPI covers Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United KingdomSource: CEPI European Pulp and Paper Industry Trade Statistics and Annual Statistics 2006; Cepifime for Uncoated Woodfree, Eurokraft/ Mondi Estimates for Kraftpaper)
PAGE 25
AGENDA
Strategic Overview
Growth
Markets
Financials
PAGE 26
INTERIM FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS
ALL KEY INDICATORS UP
€ millions, except for percentages H1 2007 H1 2006 %Change
Group revenue 3,052 2,857 + 7EBITDA 1 421 343 + 23Underlying operating profit 2 243 166 + 46Underlying profit before tax 3 203 125 + 62Reported profit before tax 250 64 Underlying pro forma earnings per share (€ cents per share) 4 22.6 11.9 + 90Interim dividend per share (€ cents per share) 7.3 n/a n/aCash inflow from operations 356 229 + 55Group ROCE 5 10.0% 8.2% + 22
1 EBITDA is operating profit of subsidiaries and joint ventures before special items, depreciation and amortisation. 2 Underlying operating profit is operating profit of subsidiaries and joint ventures before special items. 3 Underlying profit before tax is reported profit before tax before special items. 4 Underlying earnings per share is before special items and based on shares issued on admission. 5 Group ROCE is an annualised measure based on underlying operating profit including share of associates' net earnings divided by average trading capital employed.
PAGE 27
COST SAVINGS - €73 MILLION
127
179 180
73
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2004 FY 2005 FY 2006 FY 2007 HY€
mill
ion
COST STRUCTURE FIRST HALF 2007
Wood, pulp and f ibre
33.7%
Personnel15.9%Variable selling
expenses10.0%
Energy7.3%
Maintenance4.6%
Other variable costs15.2%
Other net operating expenses
7.0%
Depreciation and amortisation
6.3%
COSTS AND COST SAVING INITIATIVES
COST SAVINGS OF €73 MILLION HELPED TO OFFSET COST INFLATION
2.8% 3.9% 3.6% 2.9%
• €37 million material input cost savings
• €18 million saving in energy costs
• Costs savings represent 2.9% of prior
year cash cost base
• External fibre cost inflation • Mondi Packaging wood 27%, recycled paper 26%
• Mondi Business Paper 25%
• Some recent easing in prices• Mitigated by own wood resources which account for
up to 50% of requirements
• Fixed costs flat in euros period on period
PAGE 28
INTERIM CASH FLOW
GENERATED €127 MILLION MORE IN CASH INFLOWS FROM OPERATIONS
€ millions H1 2007 H1 2006 Change
EBITDA 421 343 78 Working capital movements (59) (99) 40 Other operating cash flow adjustments (6) (15) 9 Cash inflows from operations 356 229 127 Dividends from associates 1 1 -Tax paid (40) (34) (6)Net cash inflow from operating activities 317 196 121 Capital expenditure (139) (209) 70 Investment in forestry assets (19) (26) 7 Acquisitions (7) (69) 62 Disposals 157 29 128 Interest received 9 22 (13)Other and proceeds on sale of fixed assets 12 17 (5)Net cash flow after investing activities 330 (40) 370
PAGE 29
INTERIM MANAGEMENT STATEMENT (14TH NOVEMBER)
GroupOverall positive trends and trading momentum of first half have continuedWeakness of US dollar is impacting trade flowsExternal fibre cost inflation has eased
Mondi PackagingBenefited from a favourable Packaging Paper trading environmentReturns in downstream converting still at unsatisfactory levels€25m restructuring programme announced to close/downsize 6 converting operations with loss of 350 jobs
Mondi Business PaperSecured further price increases of circa 3-4%Taken production downtime of circa 75,000 tonnes PM31 headbox successfully modified
SummaryMondi is benefiting from favourable product mix, emerging market exposure and competitivecost positionDespite booking €25m restructuring charge, expect earnings to be in line with managementexpectations
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Share Price Performance
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
110.0
120.0
3-Ju
l
10-J
ul
17-J
ul
24-J
ul
31-J
ul
7-Au
g
14-A
ug
21-A
ug
28-A
ug
4-Se
p
11-S
ep
18-S
ep
25-S
ep
2-Oct
9-Oct
16-O
ct
23-O
ct
30-O
ct
6-Nov
Mondi DS Smith IP M-Real Norske Skog Sappi SCA Smurfit Stora Enso UPM
Relative Share Prices of Principal Comparitor Group
3 Ju
ly 200
7 =10
0
Q & A