DEUTSCHE BANK PAPER CONFERENCE LONDON 14 NOVEMBER 2007€¦ · MAGENTA\ROADSHOW PRESENTATION\12...

32
DEUTSCHE BANK PAPER CONFERENCE LONDON 14 NOVEMBER 2007

Transcript of DEUTSCHE BANK PAPER CONFERENCE LONDON 14 NOVEMBER 2007€¦ · MAGENTA\ROADSHOW PRESENTATION\12...

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DEUTSCHE BANK PAPER CONFERENCE

LONDON

14 NOVEMBER 2007

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PAGE 1

AGENDA

Strategic Overview

Growth

Markets

Financials

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PAGE 2

AGENDA

Strategic Overview

Growth

Markets

Financials

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PAGE 3

MONDI AT A GLANCE

Sales H1 2007 (1)

Products

Positions in Europe

€ 0.2B

South AfricaSouth Africa

€ 0.3B

merchant /newsprintmerchant /newsprint

€ 1.7B

No. 1 Kraft Paper(2)

No. 2 Kraftliner(2)

No. 1 Bag Converting(3)

No. 3 Corrugated Packaging (4)

No. 1 Corrugated Packaging in SA(3)

No. 1 Rigid Plastics in SA

No. 1 in Cartonboardin SA

No. 1 Newsprint in South Africa(2)

Leading Positions in Emerging Europe(5)

€ 1.0B

No. 1 Office Paper(2)

No. 2 UCWF(2)

- . .(1) Segment revenues, including inter-segment revenues, excluding associates. (2) Based on production capacity. (3) Based on sales. (4) Management estimate based on sales. Sources: RISI, Pöyry Forest Industry Consulting, Freedonia, BMI Foodpack, PAMSA, Mondi

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PAGE 4

MONDI STRATEGIC DRIVERS

Leading market position— Leading market positions — High exposure to:

– Attractive product segments– Attractive geographies

Strong asset base— Upstream production cost advantages

– 100% of kraftliner and 91% of universaloffice paper in lowest cost quartile

— Vertically integrated– Up to 51% self-sufficient low cost wood

Focus on performance— Comprehensive Business Excellence

Programmes— Continuous cost reduction and productivity

improvement

Growth— Organic and through acquisition

Mondi Group operating assets

70%

30%

Emerging markets Mature markets

Mondi group net operating assets June 2007

61%

39%

Emerging markets Mature markets

Indicative Position 2010

Mondi Group sales H1 2007

45%

55%

Emerging markets Mature markets

Mondi Group sales

60%

40%

Emerging markets Mature markets

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PAGE 5

UCWF and Corrugated demand growth per region

Demand growth in %.1Sources: EMGE Woodfree Forecast Report; October 2007 for Eastern and Western Europe. World Paper markets 2020, Pöyry 2005 Edition for CIS. CIS market growth from 2004 –2010.2Source: ICCA.

CISEEWE

9,8

1,3

6,6

UCWF 2006 - 2011 demand growth (in %)1 Corrugated 2005 - 2010 demand growth (in %)2

EE

8,2

WE

1,8

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UPSTREAM PRODUCTION COST ADVANTAGES LOW-COST POSITIONS

Universal Office Paper

Note: The graphs show delivered cost to Frankfurt, Germany European Producers Sources: Pöyry Forest Industry Consulting, Mondi

Mondi Paper Machines

Unbleached KraftlinerWhite-top Kraftliner

Cumulative capacity (Kt/a)

00 3,000

100% of Mondi Unbleached

Kraftliner capacity

€/t 1,500

91% of Mondi Universal Office Paper Capacity0

0 3,500Cumulative capacity (Kt/a)

Cumulative capacity (Kt/a)

€/t 800

1,400

100% of Mondi White-top Kraftliner

capacity

00

€/t 500

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25 25 2630 30

3337 39

4247

Brazil

South A

frica

Russia

Chile

Austra

liaPola

ndPor

tugal

Sweden

Finland

France

SUPERIOR ACCESS TO LOW-COST WOOD

Average Hardwood and Softwood Costs (€/m3, Q2 2007)

Source: Pöyry Forest Industry Consulting

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BENEFITING FROM INTEGRATED VALUE CHAIN

(1) Refers to Mondi’s demand and self-sufficiency of packaging paper (including MP and MPSA). Paper is the end product for non-packaging businesses.Notes: 2006 figures. Forestry figures are based on annual allowable cut (excluding firewood).Source: Mondi

Mondi’s own availability

Mondi’s own demand

Forestry Pulp Paper

Potential self sufficiency 51%

7.6mm3

14.8mm3

91%

3.5Mt

3.8Mt

154%(1)

5.8MtPackaging: 3.3Mt

2.1Mt(1)

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PAGE 9

AGENDA

Strategic Overview

Growth

Markets

Financials

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PAGE 10

GROWTH

At 30th June 2006 61% of asset base was deployed in emerging markets.

Estimated emerging market share of asset base will grow to 70% by close of 2010

Major investments targeted at emerging markets:- Containerboard and box plant – Eastern Europe- Syktyvkar modernisation expansion – Russia- Tire Kutsan acquisition - Turkey

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CONTAINERBOARD EXPANSION PROJECT

New 470,000 tons lightweight recycled containerboard machine plus a new

corrugated box plant with capacity of approximately 250M m2/year

corrugated board production

Clear cost leader in Europe

Investment cost of circa €350M

Order for main machinery was placed in September 2007

Start-up expected in mid 2009

Investigating option of investing in own recovered paper collection

operation

Source: Mondi

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CONTAINERBOARD EXPANSION PROJECT –PROJECT RATIONALE

Target high-growth lightweight recycled containerboard marketSupported by growing manufacturing base in CEE region which has resulted in a recycled containerboard supply deficit (0.7M tons in 2006)Efficient supply to state-of-the-art corrugators with 2.8m widthLower capital expenditure due to brownfield investment

Leverage Mondi Packaging paper sales network in EuropeExpand leading market position in strongly growing Polish corrugated packaging market by adding a state-of-the-art box plant with favourable logistic costs due to location next to the RCB mill

100

150

200

250

300

350

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000

Cumulative capacity (1 000 t/a)

€/t

Recycled Fluting Cost Curve

PM CEE Light

Note: The graph shows manufacturing cost.Source: Mondi/Pöyry Forest Industry Consulting

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PAGE 13

SYKTYVKAR MILL - PROJECT SCOPE

New and expanded

Wood handling facilities

Recovery boiler and turbine

Evaporation of Black Liquor

Limekiln

Pulp dryer

Upgraded/Rebuilt

Two chemical pulp lines

PM14 UCWF machine

PM21 containerboard machine

Benefits include

Lower operating costs

Improved efficiencies

Expanded electricity generating capacity

190,000 tpa increase in pulp production capacity

52,000 tpa increase in UCWF production capacity

46,000 tpa increase in containerboard

Reduced environmental footprint

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SYKTYVKAR PROJECT - MARKET FORECAST

This Project will enable Mondi to benefit from the strong growth in demand for UCWF and containerboard in the domestic Russian market

(1) Based on Mondi ResearchSource: Pöyry (World Paper Markets up to 2020); Mondi Analysis

UCWF / Cut size Paper Demand ForecastCEE incl. Russia

1.7

2.6

3.1

0

1

2

3

4

(mt)

2004 2010 2015

5,7%

CIS Cutsize (C+ Grade)(1)

0.60.7

0.70.8

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

(mt)

‘07 ‘08 ‘09

8,7%

‘10

CAGR

CAGR

Russia

115

195

275

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2010

(kt)

9,1%

2005 2015

White-top liner Demand Forecast

Source: Pöyry (White-top Kraftliner and White-top Testlinercost competitiveness and Market Outlook); February 2007

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PAGE 15

SYKTYVKAR OPERATIONAL ACHIVEMENTS

The Russian operation Syktyvkar has been a success story for Mondi, outperforming in the areas of safety, productivity, costs and environmental management

100

120

140

160

180

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

%

Syktyvkar (Russia)(²)

Management control acquired in 2002

Integrated operations

13% p.a.(¹)

(1) CAGR. (2) Forestry workers included. Note: Tons per capita based on employees year average Source: Mondi

In the process Mondi has developed highly valued relationships with the local government and stakeholders, which in conjunctionwith the above, positions Mondi uniquely to fully optimise this attractive value creating opportunity

Volume per capita

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SYKTYVKAR - MILESTONES

Milestones of the Project:

Main equipment vendors chosen July/August 2007

Start construction April 2008

Project completion mid-2010

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PAGE 17

ACQUISITION TIRE KUTSAN, TURKEY

On September 3, 2007 Mondi Packaging acquired 54% of Tire Kutsan, the

leading Turkish corrugated packaging company

The company has one paper mill producing 120,000 tons of recycled

containerboard plus 5 corrugated box plants in Turkey with a board production

capacity of approximately 450M m2/year

The company was acquired from the Ülker Group, a leading Turkish family

owned group with sales of USD 7B mainly in the food business. The Ülker

Group will keep 10% in Tire Kustan for 3 years and Mondi Packaging and the

Ülker Group have signed a business cooperation agreement

The acquisition price for 54% was USD 106M equivalent to a cash and debt free

enterprise value for 100% of c. €190M

The remaining shares are traded on Istanbul Stock Exchange and Mondi

Packaging is currently in the process of making a mandatory tender offer

Source: Mondi

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2000 2005 2010 CAGR M m2 CAGR M m2 2005 2010EPoland 1.129 2.054 2.986 12,7% 925 7,8% 932 39 53 77Russia 1.124 2.351 3.464 15,9% 1.227 8,1% 1.113 143 16 25Turkey 1.400 2.111 3.701 8,6% 711 11,9% 1.590 73 29 47Other EE 2.048 3.168 4.198 9,1% 1.120 5,8% 1.030 110 29 36Total EE 5.701 9.684 14.349 11,2% 3.983 8,2% 4.665 375 26 38Total WE 33.790 35.574 38.962 1,0% 1.784 1,8% 3.388 394 90 97EUROPE 39.491 45.258 53.311 2,8% 5.767 3,3% 8.053 769 59 69Source: ICCA

Production in M m2 Growth 00-05 Growth 05-10 Prod. / capitaPop 05

ACQUISITION TIRE KUTSANPROJECT RATIONALE

Turkey is forecasted to have the highest growth rates in corrugated

packaging in Europe with 12% per annum or additional 1.6 M m2 between

2005 and 2010

Acquisition makes Mondi Packaging the market leader in Turkey and Emerging

Europe in corrugated

Reinforces Mondi’s strategy of high emerging market exposure

Strengthens Mondi Packaging’s position in the European corrugated market by

expanding its European footprint

Source: Mondi

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PAGE 19

AGENDA

Strategic Overview

Growth

Markets

Financials

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PAGE 20

INDUSTRY FUNDAMENTALS: EUROPEAN UNCOATED FINE PAPER

Circa 12 million tonne market, growing at 3% 1 pa— Western Europe 2% 2— Eastern Europe 7% 2European capacity closures in 2006/2007 of 720,000 tpaFollowing these closures, capacity utilisation anticipated to be attractiveFavourable demand supply balance forecast for foreseeable futureOnly confirmed major expansion in Europe is a new 500Ktpa machine at Portucel’s Setubal mill, planned for commissioning in Q3 2009

(1) Volume growth based on 2000 to 2006 demand estimates by Pöyry Forest Industry Consulting.

(2) 2005 - 2006(3) Demand estimates by Pöyry Forest Industry Consulting.(4) Q4 2001 – Q3 2007.

Sources: Mondi, Pöyry Forest Industry Consulting, CEPIFINE, RISI, PIX (FOEX Indexes Oy Ltd)

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

2001 2004 2007

€/to

nne

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EUROPEAN DEMAND AND OPERATING RATES EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG FOR UNCOATED FINE PAPER

0102030405060708090100110

2008

8.590

2009

8.815

2010

9.070

2011

Operating RatesDemand

1,9%

01.000

8.270

11.00012.000

2.0003.0004.0005.0006.0007.0008.0009.000

Demand (kt) Operating Rate (%)

2006

8.410

2007

8.64010.000

Europe 30

Source: EMGE Woodfree Forecast Report; October 2007

0

20

40

60

80

100

7.405

2006

7.495

2007

7.645

2008

7.555

2009

7.705

2010

7.880

2011

1,3%

0

10.000

2.000

4.000

6.000

8.000

Demand (kt) Operating Rate (%)

W. Europe 16

995915865

0

20

40

60

80

100

2006 2007 2008

1.035

2009

1.110

2010

1.190

2011

6,6%

0

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

500

Demand (kt) Operating Rate (%)E. Europe 14

Capacity closures of 180kt in 2006 and 540kt in 2007 (Source: CEPIFINE-March 2007)

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INDUSTRY FUNDAMENTALS: EUROPEAN CONTAINERBOARD AND CORRUGATED PACKAGING

Circa 26 million tonne market growing at 2.7% 1 pa— Western Europe 1.4% 1

— Eastern Europe 11.0% 1

Good demand growth, particularly in Germany and Emerging EuropeCapacity closures in recycled grades of 2.4 mtpa in 2005/2006 Now operating at attractive capacity utilisation levelsAside from Modern Karton in Turkey (400 ktpa), no new paper machine capacity scheduled until mid to late 2009

(1) Growth on tonnage basis 2000 to 2006 based on 2006 forecasts. (2) Q4 2001 – Q3 2007.

Sources: ICCA, RISI, Pöyry Forest Industry Consulting and PIX (FOEX Indexes Oy Ltd)

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

2001 2004 2007

€/to

nne

Kraftliner 175 gTestliner 2White top Kraftliner

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PAGE 23

The impact on Mondi should be limited for the following reasons:o UCWF:

– 8% of volume exposed to exports (about 4% for cut size)– Relative high entry barriers (distribution channels, Customer own labels,

environmental standing of overseas suppliers)o Corrugated:

– Overall limited exposure to exchange rates as corrugated is largely traded on a regional level

Coated and graphic grades (which Mondi not exposed to) see much higher trade flows – circa 20% export dependency.

While current USD makes Europe attractive for imports and pressures exports, overall threat limited

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Nevertheless with the exception of the export heavy Kraft paper, the impact on Mondi’s grades is limited

Overview of Export dependence European Paper Business (Imports, Exports and Net Trade in % of Production)

Newsprint

21,5

-0,4

21,2

Uncoated Mechanical

23,5

-0,6

22,9

Coated Mechanical

8,6

-4,1

4,4

Uncoated Woodfree

27,1

-3,2

23,8

Coated Woodfree

6,6

-2,6

4,0

Sanitary and Household

9,0

-4,4

4,6

Container-board

29,0

-7,2

21,7

CartonBoards

24,4

-2,8

21,6

14,1

34,4

-7,4

27,0

WrappingsKraftpaper

Imports in % of ProductionNet Exports in % of Production

-9,3

4,9

Exports in % of Production

Note: CEPI covers Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United KingdomSource: CEPI European Pulp and Paper Industry Trade Statistics and Annual Statistics 2006; Cepifime for Uncoated Woodfree, Eurokraft/ Mondi Estimates for Kraftpaper)

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PAGE 25

AGENDA

Strategic Overview

Growth

Markets

Financials

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INTERIM FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS

ALL KEY INDICATORS UP

€ millions, except for percentages H1 2007 H1 2006 %Change

Group revenue 3,052 2,857 + 7EBITDA 1 421 343 + 23Underlying operating profit 2 243 166 + 46Underlying profit before tax 3 203 125 + 62Reported profit before tax 250 64 Underlying pro forma earnings per share (€ cents per share) 4 22.6 11.9 + 90Interim dividend per share (€ cents per share) 7.3 n/a n/aCash inflow from operations 356 229 + 55Group ROCE 5 10.0% 8.2% + 22

1 EBITDA is operating profit of subsidiaries and joint ventures before special items, depreciation and amortisation. 2 Underlying operating profit is operating profit of subsidiaries and joint ventures before special items. 3 Underlying profit before tax is reported profit before tax before special items. 4 Underlying earnings per share is before special items and based on shares issued on admission. 5 Group ROCE is an annualised measure based on underlying operating profit including share of associates' net earnings divided by average trading capital employed.

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PAGE 27

COST SAVINGS - €73 MILLION

127

179 180

73

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2004 FY 2005 FY 2006 FY 2007 HY€

mill

ion

COST STRUCTURE FIRST HALF 2007

Wood, pulp and f ibre

33.7%

Personnel15.9%Variable selling

expenses10.0%

Energy7.3%

Maintenance4.6%

Other variable costs15.2%

Other net operating expenses

7.0%

Depreciation and amortisation

6.3%

COSTS AND COST SAVING INITIATIVES

COST SAVINGS OF €73 MILLION HELPED TO OFFSET COST INFLATION

2.8% 3.9% 3.6% 2.9%

• €37 million material input cost savings

• €18 million saving in energy costs

• Costs savings represent 2.9% of prior

year cash cost base

• External fibre cost inflation • Mondi Packaging wood 27%, recycled paper 26%

• Mondi Business Paper 25%

• Some recent easing in prices• Mitigated by own wood resources which account for

up to 50% of requirements

• Fixed costs flat in euros period on period

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PAGE 28

INTERIM CASH FLOW

GENERATED €127 MILLION MORE IN CASH INFLOWS FROM OPERATIONS

€ millions H1 2007 H1 2006 Change

EBITDA 421 343 78 Working capital movements (59) (99) 40 Other operating cash flow adjustments (6) (15) 9 Cash inflows from operations 356 229 127 Dividends from associates 1 1 -Tax paid (40) (34) (6)Net cash inflow from operating activities 317 196 121 Capital expenditure (139) (209) 70 Investment in forestry assets (19) (26) 7 Acquisitions (7) (69) 62 Disposals 157 29 128 Interest received 9 22 (13)Other and proceeds on sale of fixed assets 12 17 (5)Net cash flow after investing activities 330 (40) 370

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INTERIM MANAGEMENT STATEMENT (14TH NOVEMBER)

GroupOverall positive trends and trading momentum of first half have continuedWeakness of US dollar is impacting trade flowsExternal fibre cost inflation has eased

Mondi PackagingBenefited from a favourable Packaging Paper trading environmentReturns in downstream converting still at unsatisfactory levels€25m restructuring programme announced to close/downsize 6 converting operations with loss of 350 jobs

Mondi Business PaperSecured further price increases of circa 3-4%Taken production downtime of circa 75,000 tonnes PM31 headbox successfully modified

SummaryMondi is benefiting from favourable product mix, emerging market exposure and competitivecost positionDespite booking €25m restructuring charge, expect earnings to be in line with managementexpectations

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PAGE 3013/11/2007 15:48MAGENTA\ROADSHOW PRESENTATION\12 Magenta Roadshow Presentation.ppt

Share Price Performance

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

110.0

120.0

3-Ju

l

10-J

ul

17-J

ul

24-J

ul

31-J

ul

7-Au

g

14-A

ug

21-A

ug

28-A

ug

4-Se

p

11-S

ep

18-S

ep

25-S

ep

2-Oct

9-Oct

16-O

ct

23-O

ct

30-O

ct

6-Nov

Mondi DS Smith IP M-Real Norske Skog Sappi SCA Smurfit Stora Enso UPM

Relative Share Prices of Principal Comparitor Group

3 Ju

ly 200

7 =10

0

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Q & A