DEU CAN FRA # of people (log scale) ESP IND USA BEL KOR...0 0 0 0 200 20 0 0 0 0 0 0: n f d D - s s...

2,000,000

200,000

20,000

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200

20

Jan 2020 Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Apr 2020 May 2020 Jun 2020

1. World: Evolution of confirmed COVID-19 cases and recoveriesTotal confirmed cases and recoveries

NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Johns Hopkins CSSE)

Confirmed

recoveries

Confirmed

cases# of people (log scale)

10,000

1,000

100

10

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10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120

2. World: Evolution of confirmed COVID-19 cases for selected countriesCases per one million population, days since 1 case per million

NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Worldometers, Johns Hopkins CSSE)

CAN

KOR

FRADEU

BELUSA

Days since 1 case per million

ESP# of people (log scale)

IND

mailto:[email protected]?subject=COVID-19%20Daily%20Monitormailto:[email protected]?subject=COVID-19%20Daily%20Monitormailto:[email protected]?subject=COVID-19%20Daily%20Monitor

500

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10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

3. Europe: COVID-19 deaths versus South KoreaDeaths per one million population, days since 1 death per million

NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Johns Hopkins CSSE, Worldometers)

SWE

KOR

Days since 1 death per million

GBR

DEU

BEL

FRA

ESP# of people (log scale)

DNK

NOR

500

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4. North America: COVID-19 deaths versus selected countriesDeaths per one million population, days since 1 death per million


CAN

KOR

USA

ESP

BEL


# of people (log scale)


5. Evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic, selected countries

Daily change in new cases and in total active cases, 3 day moving average (data via Johns Hopkins CSSE)

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NBF Economics and Strategy

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000 persons

New cases (left axis) New recoveries (left axis) Active cases (confirmed – recovered – deaths, right axis)


5. Evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic, selected countries (continued)

Daily change in new cases and in total active cases (data via Johns Hopkins CSSE)

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New cases (left axis) New recoveries (left axis) Active cases (confirmed – recovered – deaths, right axis)


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6. Canada: COVID-19 deaths versus selected countriesDeaths per one million population, days since 1 death per million


SWE

QC


CAN

AB

BEL

BC

ON


USA

ESP

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500

50

5

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10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120

7. Canada: COVID-19 cases versus selected countriesCases per one million population, days since 1 case per million


SWE

QC

Days since 1 case per million

CAN

AB

BEL

BC

ON

# of people (log scale)USA ESP


5,000

500

50

5

1

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120

8. Latin America: COVID-19 cases versus selected countriesCases per one million population, days since 1 case per million

MEX

CAN

BRA

BELPER# of people (log scale)

CHL

ESP

1,000

100

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10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

9. Latin America: COVID-19 deaths versus selected countriesDeaths per one million population, days since 1 death per million

NBF Economics and Strategy (data via https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html, Worldometers)

MEX


CANBRA

BEL

PER


CHL

ESP


10. World: Evolution of new confirmed cases, selected countriesNew daily cases by one million population, 7-day moving average


2020-04-16 2020-04-23 2020-04-30 2020-05-07 2020-05-14 2020-05-21 2020-05-28 2020-06-04 2020-06-11 cumulative

Brazil 8.29 13.18 24.97 32.65 45.29 71.86 86.13 118.76 126.27 3777

Sweden 47.08 58.39 60.08 48.91 54.84 49.73 49.24 85.27 88.72 4682

United States 88.39 87.00 86.43 80.97 69.38 68.78 62.41 65.13 65.03 6113

South Africa 1.62 3.25 4.08 6.23 10.86 15.41 19.91 32.25 42.82 988

Portugal 68.42 49.19 37.70 23.39 22.46 22.31 23.59 27.95 32.46 3521

Mexico 3.16 5.91 8.41 11.51 14.38 18.80 24.19 26.90 31.35 1039

United Kingdom 80.00 73.62 69.81 74.63 55.63 37.37 38.34 26.38 20.51 4293

Israel 46.05 33.75 18.86 7.18 3.27 1.72 3.12 10.28 17.73 2145

Canada 35.33 45.47 43.21 44.13 32.80 29.96 27.72 20.56 14.72 2595

Belgium 121.11 98.46 70.53 35.76 35.35 24.00 19.89 11.32 11.64 5152

Turkey 54.05 46.74 31.19 22.90 18.68 14.90 12.59 10.89 11.20 2063

Netherlands 62.62 54.75 30.14 20.66 14.34 10.24 10.50 8.34 11.00 2838

India 0.69 1.00 1.22 2.22 2.65 3.75 4.88 6.35 7.33 216

Spain 96.71 85.58 1.25 24.42 24.67 10.66 14.84 8.39 6.24 5179

Denmark 30.68 29.45 26.76 22.81 15.54 11.57 8.14 7.37 5.52 2078

France 128.35 26.46 19.14 15.93 8.04 5.68 8.77 5.86 5.19 2887

Italy 59.79 49.67 36.58 24.55 17.09 11.60 8.80 5.39 5.03 3904

Finland 19.70 23.59 18.33 17.48 12.17 8.97 6.45 4.33 3.94 1275

Germany 33.31 26.33 16.86 10.96 8.61 7.75 5.42 3.88 3.79 2230

Austria 19.56 8.35 7.14 4.76 4.86 5.49 3.56 2.81 3.63 1893

Norway 18.05 13.31 8.88 7.80 4.27 2.98 2.69 2.45 2.74 1588

Switzerland 44.83 29.49 18.22 9.03 5.63 3.86 1.71 1.96 2.19 3633

South Korea 0.53 0.26 0.18 0.13 0.55 0.35 0.72 0.74 0.93 234

Japan 4.46 4.22 1.94 1.56 0.72 0.34 0.20 0.35 0.31 135

China 0.05 0.05 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 52

11. World: Evolution of new deaths, selected countriesNew daily deaths by one million population, 7-day moving average


2020-04-16 2020-04-23 2020-04-30 2020-05-07 2020-05-14 2020-05-21 2020-05-28 2020-06-04 2020-06-11 cumulative

Brazil 0.65 0.95 1.80 2.14 3.23 4.06 4.51 4.88 4.64 192

Mexico 0.32 0.65 0.88 1.22 1.68 2.25 2.81 3.88 3.77 124

Sweden 7.65 9.75 8.01 6.43 6.93 4.85 5.60 4.19 3.57 477

United Kingdom 12.31 10.54 16.90 8.09 6.31 5.11 3.78 4.35 2.89 608

United States 7.11 7.37 5.64 5.48 4.42 3.81 2.99 2.84 2.43 344

Canada 2.76 3.63 3.96 4.71 3.98 2.55 2.30 3.18 1.33 213

Italy 9.19 7.98 5.71 4.70 3.33 2.64 1.55 1.29 1.13 565

Belgium 28.77 20.13 13.61 10.12 6.02 3.49 2.49 1.97 1.08 831

South Africa 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.14 0.19 0.32 0.50 0.65 1.05 22

Portugal 3.08 2.68 2.37 1.62 1.11 1.30 1.29 1.20 0.69 147

France 12.46 8.59 5.52 3.51 3.14 1.72 0.97 0.87 0.61 449

Netherlands 7.72 7.24 5.19 4.14 2.54 1.55 1.08 0.73 0.45 356

Denmark 2.07 1.80 1.43 1.53 0.57 0.59 0.17 0.35 0.27 102

Switzerland 5.57 4.48 3.14 1.22 1.04 0.43 0.35 0.03 0.27 227

Germany 2.56 2.43 1.72 1.30 0.74 0.61 0.48 0.26 0.23 105

Turkey 1.24 1.44 1.16 0.79 0.62 0.41 0.36 0.29 0.23 56

India 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.08 0.08 0.10 0.12 0.17 0.22 6

Israel 0.92 0.83 0.50 0.30 0.41 0.23 0.08 0.12 0.15 35

Norway 1.16 1.11 0.42 0.18 0.40 0.08 0.03 0.05 0.11 45

Finland 0.85 2.50 1.01 1.13 0.83 0.49 0.18 0.23 0.08 59

Austria 1.83 1.78 0.98 0.40 0.27 0.11 0.56 0.03 0.06 75

Japan 0.09 0.17 0.11 0.17 0.14 0.09 0.12 0.03 0.01 7

South Korea 0.07 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 5

Spain 11.82 8.68 7.29 4.67 2.33 0.00 0.87 0.04 0.01 580

China 0.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2


12. Canada: Evolution of new casesNew daily cases by one million population, 7-day moving average

NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Government of Canada, Johns Hopkins CSSE)

2020-04-16 2020-04-23 2020-04-30 2020-05-07 2020-05-14 2020-05-21 2020-05-28 2020-06-04 2020-06-11 cumulative

Quebec 83.26 100.70 96.17 129.62 92.31 80.19 70.83 41.10 22.59 6303

Ontario 40.01 41.46 32.62 29.35 24.29 26.77 26.72 25.75 21.84 2275

Alberta 18.73 56.35 53.44 21.64 14.38 10.16 6.11 4.44 7.35 1674

British Columbia 6.34 7.41 8.11 4.96 2.93 2.45 2.23 2.08 1.75 529

Saskatchewan 4.14 3.16 7.06 17.28 6.21 4.87 2.07 1.10 1.46 562

Nova Scotia 34.85 36.47 17.65 8.82 2.79 2.94 1.32 0.44 0.44 1092

Manitoba 3.03 1.25 1.57 0.63 0.63 0.10 0.42 0.42 0.21 219

New-Brunswick 1.66 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 151

Newfounland 5.48 1.10 0.55 0.82 0.00 -0.27 0.27 0.00 0.00 500

Prince Edward Island 0.91 0.00 0.91 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 172

13. Canada: Evolution of new deathsNew daily deaths by one million population, 7-day moving average

NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Government of Canada, Johns Hopkins CSSE)

2020-04-16 2020-04-23 2020-04-30 2020-05-07 2020-05-14 2020-05-21 2020-05-28 2020-06-04 2020-06-11 cumulative

Quebec 6.97 10.32 10.37 13.01 12.12 7.54 8.45 9.82 3.70 1 602

Ontario 2.84 3.10 3.91 3.94 3.02 1.73 1.80 1.41 1.22 2 174

Nova Scotia 0.29 1.91 1.76 2.35 1.03 1.03 0.15 0.29 0.15 3 64

Saskatchewan 0.12 0.00 0.24 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.37 0.12 0.24 6 11

Alberta 0.62 0.65 0.72 0.78 0.23 0.36 0.36 0.10 0.10 5 34

New-Brunswick 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.18 0.00 6 1

British Columbia 0.76 0.54 0.48 0.42 0.25 0.48 0.34 0.06 0.03 4 32

Manitoba 0.21 0.10 0.00 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6 5

Prince Edward Island 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6 0

Newfoundland 0.27 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6 6


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14. New York: Then vs nowWeekly deaths per 100 000 population: 1918 pandemic vs COVID-19 (COVID-19 last obs.: May 31 to June 6)

Weekly deaths per 100 000 population

NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Johns Hopkins CSSE, Wikipedia, Markel and al. Nonpharmaceutical Interventions Implemented

During the 1918-1919 Influenza Pandemic)

COVID-19

1918 pandemic

# of weeksWeek 1: September 14 1918/ March 14 2020

Shaded area represents length of nonpharmaceutical interventions in

1918, line represent start of measures in 2020

32.3

46.9

16.1

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Proportion ofpopulation

Proportion ofinfluenza andpneumonia deaths

15. United States: Perspective on pandemic related deaths

NBF Economy and Strategy (data via CDC, Census Bureau)

18.6

39.7

25.8

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Proportion ofpopulation

Proportion ofCOVID-19 deaths

Spanish flu (1918) COVID-19 (as of June 6)

% %

AgeAge


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New York Miami Toronto Paris Rome Montreal Madrid Stockhom

Worst week Current

16. World: Perspective on trafficDifference in congestion level vs 2019 from 6am to 6pm, 7 day moving average (last obs.: May 31 - June 6)

NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Tom Tom Traffic)

Percentage points

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Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Apr 2020 May 2020 Jun 2020

17. World: Perspective on restaurant reservationsYear over year change in restaurant reservations, 7 day moving average (last obs.: June 9)

y/y change

NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Open Table)

CAN

USA

GBR

DEU

Global


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18. World: Back to normal indexGoogle mobility data for retail & recreation, grocery & pharmacy, transit and workplaces, 7-day mov. average

% change from baseline*

SWE

USA

CANITA

GBR

FRA

ESP

*The baseline is the median value of the corresponding day of the week during the 5 week period from January 3 to February 6

NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Google)

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19. Canada: Back to normal indexGoogle mobility data for retail & recreation, grocery & pharmacy, transit and workplaces, 7-day mov. average

*The baseline is the median value of the corresponding day of the week during the 5 week period from January 3 to February 6

NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Google)

% change from baseline*

CA

AB

QC

BC

ON


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20. Canada: Perspective on financial stressNBF financial stress index

Stdev

NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Bloomberg and Refinitiv)

Lehman bankruptcy

and AIG bailout

U.S. government

credit downgrade

and Eurozone

crisis

Fear of Chinese

recession and

petrol supply

shock

COVID-19

outbreak and

OPEC/Russia oil

price war

NBF Financial Stress Index for Canada

Beta S&P/TSX financials β = cov(r,m)/var(m) calculated daily over a rolling 1- year time horizon, where r = daily percentage change in the

S&P/TSX Financials Total Returns Index. m = daily percentage change in the S&P/TSX Total Returns Index.

Financials bond yield spreadApproximated by the AA-rated long-term corporate bond yield, of which most constituents are financial issuers,

minus the 10-year Canadian government bond yield.

S&P/TSX equity risk premium proxyThe S&P/TSX 12-month forward earnings divided by the price of the index minus the 10-year Canadian

government bond yield.

S&P/TSX historical 1-month volatility 1-month historical volatility of the S&P/TSX.

USD/CAD historical 1-month volatility 1-month historical volatility of the USD/CAD exchange rate.

BBB rated corporate bond yield spread BBB rated long-term corporate bond yield minus the 10-year Canadian government bond yield.

Provincical spread Long-term provincial government bond yield minus the 10-year Canadian government bond yield.

Source: NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Bloomberg and Refinitiv)

Variables Estimation


DEU CAN FRA # of people (log scale) ESP IND USA BEL KOR...0 0 0 0 200 20 0 0 0 0 0 0: n f d D - s s...

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