Detroit: A Tale of Two Cities
Transcript of Detroit: A Tale of Two Cities
A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
Data Driven Detroit: Detroit by the Numbers
Detroit Revitalization Fellows
Erica Raleigh, Data Driven Detroit
August 2015
Affiliated with the Michigan Nonprofit Association A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
• Introduction to D3
• Using Data to Tell a Story –
Demographic Shifts in Metro Detroit
• How Can Data Help?
• Quick Look at the D3 Site
Overview
A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
Data Smog
A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
Existing Data Sources
A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
Difficulties with the existing system
Dispersed administrative sources
There are so many of them!
Some admin sources still locked
Some are still on paper
Not all data we need for community decision-making actually exist
So what do we do?
How do people get informed?
A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
How do we synthesize the information in a
way that’s meaningful for everyone?
Affiliated with the Michigan Nonprofit Association A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
Affiliated with the Michigan Nonprofit Association A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
Data Driven Detroit provides accessible
high-quality information and analysis to
drive informed decision-making.
Mission
A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
Data…
A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
Data…
A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
Integrating Existing Data
Data Source
Tax Assessment Rolls
City of Detroit Tax Assessor
American Community Survey
U.S. Census Bureau
Criminal Offenses Detroit Police Department
Open School Locations Center for Educational
Performance & Information
Air Emissions Environmental Protection Agency
A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
Developing New Data
Physical condition of urban environment
Detroit Residential Parcel Survey in 2009
o Housing Type
o Condition / Fire Damage
o Occupancy
o Vacant Lot Status
A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
Developing New Data
Physical condition of urban environment
Detroit Comprehensive Parcel Survey in 2014
o Housing Type
o Condition / Fire Damage
o Occupancy
o Vacant Lot Status
A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
Data…
Affiliated with the Michigan Nonprofit Association A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
Affiliated with the Michigan Nonprofit Association A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
Data…
Affiliated with the Michigan Nonprofit Association A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
Data…
Affiliated with the Michigan Nonprofit Association A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
Community Engagement
A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
Data Workshops
A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
On-Air with WDET
A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
LocalData Mobile App
1. Select the parcel 2. Submit results 3. Map updates
A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
Collect, Interact, Explore!
A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
Data Driven…
Affiliated with the Michigan Nonprofit Association A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
Detroit: Sprawl & Consequences
Affiliated with the Michigan Nonprofit Association A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
Source: U.S. EPA
A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
“Housing Disassembly Line”
Since 1950 we have built an average of
10,000 more housing units in the tri-county
area each year than households required
Excess supply on the fringe causes
successive filtering outward, leaving tens
of thousands of vacant dwellings in the
core
Source: George Galster, Driving Detroit: The Quest for Respect in the Motor City
Affiliated with the Michigan Nonprofit Association A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
285,7
04
467,7
66
993,6
78
1,5
68,6
62
1,6
23,4
52
1,8
49,5
68
1,6
70,1
44
1,5
14,0
63
1,2
03,3
68
1,0
27,9
74
951,2
70
713,7
77
296,5
32
293,7
15
474,2
86
813,5
33
990,3
92
1,4
95,2
25
2,5
11,2
10
3,2
21,9
45
3,4
79,3
58
3,5
62,4
94
3,8
82,2
23
3,9
90,9
66
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Detroit
7-County Suburbs
The 1950’s Marked the Turning Point
for Detroit’s Population Decline
Source: Census Bureau
Affiliated with the Michigan Nonprofit Association A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
Affiliated with the Michigan Nonprofit Association A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
Affiliated with the Michigan Nonprofit Association A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
Affiliated with the Michigan Nonprofit Association A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
Affiliated with the Michigan Nonprofit Association A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
Affiliated with the Michigan Nonprofit Association A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
Affiliated with the Michigan Nonprofit Association A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
Affiliated with the Michigan Nonprofit Association A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
Affiliated with the Michigan Nonprofit Association A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
Affiliated with the Michigan Nonprofit Association A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
Affiliated with the Michigan Nonprofit Association A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
Affiliated with the Michigan Nonprofit Association A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
Affiliated with the Michigan Nonprofit Association A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
Affiliated with the Michigan Nonprofit Association A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
Affiliated with the Michigan Nonprofit Association A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
Affiliated with the Michigan Nonprofit Association A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
2000-2010 Population Change
Detroit: -25%
Inner ring
Ferndale: -10%
Dearborn: +0.4%
Southfield: -8%
Fringe
Oakland Charter Township: +28%
Lenox Township: +24%
Canton Township: +18%
Affiliated with the Michigan Nonprofit Association A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
Detroit Stats
Vacant commercial and
residential addresses (2013):
28.3%
Parcels without structures (2014):
30.2%
Publicly owned parcels (2014):
>80,000
Tax foreclosures, soon to be
publicly owned parcels:
70,000-90,000
(~380,000 parcels in Detroit)
A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
Detroit Housing
61% of owner-occupied housing units are
valued below $50,000
34% of these households pay more than 30% of household income on housing
66% of renter-occupied households pay more than 30% of household income on
housing
Source: Census Bureau, 2013 ACS
Affiliated with the Michigan Nonprofit Association A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
Affiliated with the Michigan Nonprofit Association A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
Affiliated with the Michigan Nonprofit Association A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
7.0
%
16.2
%
17.9
%
21.0
%
25.9
%
9.3
%
8.2
%
25.8
%
24
.3%
15.7
%
38.1
%
13.4
%
45.4
%
29.1
%
27.5
%
26.2
%
50.0
%
46
.3%
77.4
%
45.7
%
68.7
%
33.6
%
45.1
%
63.2
%
65.6
%
24.2
%
29
.4%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
Detroit Cleveland Chicago Indianapolis Pittsburgh Atlanta Los Angeles Phoenix Portland
Beyond 10 Miles
3 to 10 Miles
Within 3 Miles
Detroit is the Most Decentralized (Sprawled) Employment Metro in the US
Source: Brookings Institution, Job Sprawl Revisited, 2009
• 108,000 Jobs lost between 1998 and 2006 • 3.1% Growth of jobs beyond 10 miles away
Affiliated with the Michigan Nonprofit Association A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
Employment:Population Unemployment Rate
United States 58.6 8.1%
Detroit-Warren-Livonia MSA 53.3 10.5%
Wayne County 47.7 13.8%
Detroit 39.7 19.7%
Detroit’s unemployment rate is 2.5 times that of the U.S.,
with an employment to population ratio level at 2/3 of the U.S.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Affiliated with the Michigan Nonprofit Association A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
Detroit Stats (2013),
Population 25 and Older
Bachelor’s degree or higher:
13%
High school diploma or less:
54%
Affiliated with the Michigan Nonprofit Association A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
United States Michigan Macomb Oakland Washtenaw Out-Wayne Detroit
Bachelor's Degree or Higher
Associate's Degree
Some College, no Degree
HS Graduate
Less than HS
Michigan and Parts of SE Michigan, particularly Detroit, Trail the Nation
in Education Attainment of Working Age (25-64 Years) Population
Source: Census Bureau, 2010 ACS
Affiliated with the Michigan Nonprofit Association A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
Detroit Stats (2013)
Total population in poverty:
41%
Children in poverty:
59%
Affiliated with the Michigan Nonprofit Association A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
Affiliated with the Michigan Nonprofit Association A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
Median Household Income in 2010 Adjusted US Dollars 1999 (2000 Census) 2010 ACS Change Percent Change
United States 54,941 50,046 -4,905 -8.90%
Michigan 58,449 45,413 -13,036 -22.30%
Detroit MSA 64,348 48,198 -16,150 -25.10%
City of Detroit 38,636 29,526 -12,849 -33.30%
Source: 2000 Census and 2010 ACS
*Note: All 1999 monetary values are adjusted to 2010 US
dollars using the US Consumer Price Research Series index for
All Urban Consumers (CPI-U-RS) from 1999 to 2009.
Source: US Department of Labor
Household Incomes Throughout Michigan Have
Decreased at Rates Three Times that of the Nation
A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
Detroit Revenue Sources
Property tax
Income tax
Other local taxes
State revenue sharing
A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
Detroit Revenue Sources
Property tax
Declining occupancy, decreasing values
Income tax
Other local taxes
State revenue sharing
A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
Detroit Revenue Sources
Property tax
Declining occupancy, decreasing values
Income tax
High unemployment, low income, business
exodus
Other local taxes
State revenue sharing
A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
Detroit Revenue Sources
Property tax
Declining occupancy, decreasing values
Income tax
High unemployment, low income, business
exodus
Other local taxes
Decline expected to continue
State revenue sharing
A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
Detroit Revenue Sources
Property tax
Declining occupancy, decreasing values
Income tax
High unemployment, low income, business
exodus
Other local taxes
Decline expected to continue
State revenue sharing
Continuing decline
A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
Developing New Data
Physical condition of urban environment
Detroit Residential Parcel Survey in 2009
o Housing Type
o Condition / Fire Damage
o Occupancy
o Vacant Lot Status
Affiliated with the Michigan Nonprofit Association A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
The Story of Neighborhood
Blight
Affiliated with the Michigan Nonprofit Association A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
The Story of Neighborhood
Blight
Affiliated with the Michigan Nonprofit Association A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
The Story of Neighborhood
Blight
Affiliated with the Michigan Nonprofit Association A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
The Story of Neighborhood
Blight
A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
2014
A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
2009 – 350,000 on Paper!
A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
2014 – We Have The Technology!
Affiliated with the Michigan Nonprofit Association A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
Survey Questions
What: Step 1:
Take a Photo
Questions about Structures
Use
Units
Condition
Occupancy
Open/Boarded
Dumping
Questions about Vacant Lots
Use
Park/Garden/Parking
Improved/Unimproved
Maintenance
Dumping
A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
Collaboration, Inclusion, and
Data-Driven Decision Making
Affiliated with the Michigan Nonprofit Association A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
Affiliated with the Michigan Nonprofit Association A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
Collaboration –
The Historic Resource Survey
A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
Broadening the Databases
DTE Energy gas and electric shutoffs
Historic district boundaries
Fire department incidents
Water shutoffs
Detroit Future City current and future land use
Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac
REO inventory
Aggregated pre-foreclosure data
Historic Resource Survey
Open and dangerous buildings list
Detroit Land Bank Authority current inventory
Valassis Direct Mailing, Inc., vacancy data
Fire escrow fund
Tax foreclosures
Tax distress
Wayne County Register of Deeds
Mortgages
Sheriff’s sales
Building permits
Business licenses
Detroit Parcel Inventory
Properties sold at tax auction
Michigan Land Bank Fast Track Authority current inventory
Affiliated with the Michigan Nonprofit Association A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
The MCI: A Tool for making Data
Driven Decisions
A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
Beginning at a Neighborhood
Level
Positive impact of intervention is greatest in the “tipping point” neighborhoods
Tipping Point
Area
Sta
bili
ty o
f
Ne
igh
bo
rho
od
Low
High
Time
A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
How does it work?
Two-tier process
Neighborhood Dynamics Index: Identify
areas that best meet objectives for
intervention
Neighborhood Threat Index: Identify “tipping
point” areas within geographies highlighted
by Dynamics Index
A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
Indices are calculated sequentially:
Neighborhood
Dynamics Score
Neighborhood Threat
Score
How does it work?
Highest Potential Impact
Higher Potential Impact
Lower Potential Impact
Lowest Potential Impact
Highest Threat
Elevated Threat
Moderate Threat
Lowest Threat
Areas for
Prioritized
Interventions
A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
The MCI in Action
Improve quality of life for the greatest number of people
Improve the investment climate to the greatest degree possible
Two goals that frame the analysis:
A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
The MCI in Action
Data for the indices were assembled at the Census Block Group level
Neighborhood
Dynamics Index
Neighborhood Threat
Index
• Occupied Structures
per Square Mile
• Average Structure
Condition Rating
• Population Under 18
per Square Mile
• Mortgage Transactions
per Square Mile
• Foreclosures per
Square Mile, 2008-
2013 (sum of Sheriff’s
Sales and Tax
Foreclosures)
• Change in residential
average condition
rating since 2009
Affiliated with the Michigan Nonprofit Association A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
Affiliated with the Michigan Nonprofit Association A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
Summary of High-Threat, High-Impact
Neighborhoods
% of Population Under 18: 30.22%
% of Occupied Structures: 30.18%
% of Detroit’s Land Area: 15.72%
Total Population (2010): 193,384
Population <18 (2010): 58,435
Occupied Structures: 61,449
A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
What Comes After?
Drilling down into the identified High- and
Elevated-Threat areas:
Assess on a parcel and block level which
locations are optimal for staging interventions
Interventions could incorporate a wide range
of policy options, including building removal,
rehabilitation, and foreclosure prevention
A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
A Foundation for Ongoing Analysis
The MCI can be periodically re-tooled to
account for changing conditions, as long
as the data are updated
Intervention areas will continually evolve
as conditions change
Affiliated with the Michigan Nonprofit Association A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
Is Detroit Dead? - Peter Eisinger, Journal of Urban
Affairs, October 27, 2013
Photo Sources: nytimes.com
Affiliated with the Michigan Nonprofit Association A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
Resources
Data Driven Detroit
Open Data Site
One D Scorecard
Other Tools and Maps
Motor City Mapping
Detroit Blight Removal Task Force
Detroit Future City
City of Detroit Open Data Portal
Affiliated with the Michigan Nonprofit Association A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate
Erica Raleigh
Looking for data?
@D3detroit
www.DataDrivenDetroit.org