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Transcript of Determining sample size for avian mortality (and vice-versa) - using data augmentation for...
![Page 1: Determining sample size for avian mortality (and vice-versa) - using data augmentation for epidemiology Ken Rice 1,2, Thomas Lumley 1,3, Betz Halloran.](https://reader038.fdocuments.net/reader038/viewer/2022103112/551aa6d25503466b3a8b5a9f/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Determining sample size for avian mortality(and vice-versa)
- using data augmentation for epidemiology
Ken Rice1,2, Thomas Lumley1,3 , Betz Halloran1,4
1. University of Washington, Department of Biostatistics
2. Seattle Symphony Chorale
3. Seattle Choral Company
4. Statistical and Quantitative Methods for Infectious Diseases and Evaluating Interventions
![Page 2: Determining sample size for avian mortality (and vice-versa) - using data augmentation for epidemiology Ken Rice 1,2, Thomas Lumley 1,3, Betz Halloran.](https://reader038.fdocuments.net/reader038/viewer/2022103112/551aa6d25503466b3a8b5a9f/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
West Nile Virus• King County wants you to be aware!
![Page 3: Determining sample size for avian mortality (and vice-versa) - using data augmentation for epidemiology Ken Rice 1,2, Thomas Lumley 1,3, Betz Halloran.](https://reader038.fdocuments.net/reader038/viewer/2022103112/551aa6d25503466b3a8b5a9f/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
It’s working!
• Cases of West Nile in King County
0
0.13
0.26
0.39
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
BirdsHumansHorses
![Page 4: Determining sample size for avian mortality (and vice-versa) - using data augmentation for epidemiology Ken Rice 1,2, Thomas Lumley 1,3, Betz Halloran.](https://reader038.fdocuments.net/reader038/viewer/2022103112/551aa6d25503466b3a8b5a9f/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Avoiding misclassification
Before analyzing it;
• Is it a bird?• Is it a plain (bird)?• Is it dead?
“If you find a dead crow, blue jay, raven or pigeon”
![Page 5: Determining sample size for avian mortality (and vice-versa) - using data augmentation for epidemiology Ken Rice 1,2, Thomas Lumley 1,3, Betz Halloran.](https://reader038.fdocuments.net/reader038/viewer/2022103112/551aa6d25503466b3a8b5a9f/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Sample size – a reminder
• Power is low for rare events
• Low power =
lots of awkward questions to answer!
• How to increase sample size of dead birds?
![Page 6: Determining sample size for avian mortality (and vice-versa) - using data augmentation for epidemiology Ken Rice 1,2, Thomas Lumley 1,3, Betz Halloran.](https://reader038.fdocuments.net/reader038/viewer/2022103112/551aa6d25503466b3a8b5a9f/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Sample size – a reminder
• A hint!
• We don’t cover this in Autumn quarter, or Winter…
strychninecyanide
![Page 7: Determining sample size for avian mortality (and vice-versa) - using data augmentation for epidemiology Ken Rice 1,2, Thomas Lumley 1,3, Betz Halloran.](https://reader038.fdocuments.net/reader038/viewer/2022103112/551aa6d25503466b3a8b5a9f/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
![Page 8: Determining sample size for avian mortality (and vice-versa) - using data augmentation for epidemiology Ken Rice 1,2, Thomas Lumley 1,3, Betz Halloran.](https://reader038.fdocuments.net/reader038/viewer/2022103112/551aa6d25503466b3a8b5a9f/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)