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DESYCO: a Decision Support System to provide … · DEcision support SYstem for COastal climate...
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DESYCO: a Decision Support System to provide climate services for coastal stakeholders dealing with climate change impacts. Torresan S. 1,2 , Gallina V. 1 , Giannini V. 3 ,Rizzi J. 1,2 , Zabeo A. 1,2 , Critto A. 1,2 , Marcomini A. 1,2 . 1 Centro-Euro Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Impacts on Soil and Coast Division c/o University Ca’ Foscari Venice, Calle Larga S. Marta 2137, I-30123 Venice, Italy. 2 Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca’ Foscari Venice, Calle Larga S. Marta 2137, I-30123 Venice, Italy. 3 Centro-Euro Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Economical and Political Impacts related to Climate Change Divison c/o Fondazione Eni-Enrico Mattei (FEEM) Isola di San Giorgio Maggiore, I-30124 Venezia, Italy. ABSTRACT At the international level climate services are recognized as innovative tools aimed at providing and distributing climate data and information according to the needs of end-users (WMO, 2010; WMO, 2011). Furthermore, needs-based climate services are extremely effective to manage climate risks and take advantage of the opportunities associated with climate change impacts. To date, climate services are mainly related to climate models that supply climate data (e.g. temperature, precipitations) at different spatial and time scales. However, there is a significant gap of tools aimed at providing information about risks and impacts induced by climate change and allowing non-expert stakeholders to use both climate-model and climate-impact data. DESYCO is a GIS-Decision Support System aimed at the integrated assessment of multiple climate change impacts on vulnerable coastal systems (e.g. beaches, river deltas, estuaries and lagoons, wetlands, agricultural and urban areas). It is an open source software that manages different input data (e.g. raster or shapefiles) coming from climate models (e.g. global and regional climate projections) in order to provide hazard, exposure, susceptibility, risk and damage maps for the identification and prioritization of hot-spot areas and to provide a basis for the definition of coastal adaptation and management strategies. Within the CLIM-RUN project (FP7) DESYCO is proposed as an helpful tool to bridge the gap between climate data and stakeholder needs. Hazard map: represents potentially significant hazards that could determine climate change impacts. CONCLUSIONS: Scenario construction Integrated impact/risk assessment Impact/risk management Simulation models Classes and Thresholds Simulation models Selection of Impact indicators Selection of impact factors Actions and responses Selection of climate stressors and drivers Future climate change scenarios Vulnerability Assessment Regional Risk Assessment Socio-economic Assessment ICZM Prioritization of impacts Prioritization of targets Prioritization of areas Selection of impacts Socio-economic Indexes Vulnerability Indexes Selection of impacts CLIMATE DATA (basic parameters) (Torresan et al., 2007) REGIONAL RISK ASSESSMENT (RRA) CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK CLIMATE IMPACT DATA (derived parameters) Temperature; Sea-level rise; Climate models and time series analysis provide basic parameters for the construction of climate change scenarios: STAKEHOLDER NEEDS: CLIMATE DATA CLIM-RUN CASE STUDY AREA: NORTH ADRIATIC COAST STAKEHOLDER NEEDS: CLIMATE IMPACT DATA DESYCO is a software that implements the RRA methodology in order to identify, prioritize and visualize areas and targets at risk from climate change impacts on coastal areas at the regional scale. A first workshop was organized in Venice (Italy) with coastal authorities in order to start a process for producing climate information tailored to their specific needs. DEcision support SYstem for COastal climate change impact assessment (DESYCO) Exposure map: identifies and classifies the areas where the hazard can be in contact with the. potential targets. Susceptibility map: identify areas more susceptible to different climate change impacts based on site-specific information. Risk maps: combination of hazard and susceptibility maps which enable the identification and ranking of areas and targets at risk. Damage map: combination of risk and value maps which provide a relative estimation of the potential social, economic and environmental losses. Value map: represent the spatial distribution of environmental and socio-economic value associated to each receptor. What receptors should be considered for the analysis of impacts, vulnerability and risks, related to climate change on coastal zones? 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Beaches Deltas and estuaries Wetlands Hydrological systems Ground biological systems Marine biological systems Protected areas Fishing grounds Urban areas Agriculture land Groundwater Lakes Population Keystone species habitat Tourism and leisure areas Critical infrastructure Infrastrcture for tertiary sector stakeholders' answers Beaches, deltas and estuaries, wetlands, hydrological systems, agricultural areas and keystone species habitats were considered important coastal receptors by at least 8/13 of the interviewed stakeholders. What do you consider to be the most important roles of climate services? 0 2 4 6 8 Provision of observed climate and weather data Provision of seasonal forecasts Provision of decadal predictions Provision of climate change projections Tools for displaying climate data Tools for analyzing climate data Guidance in using climate data/tools Training in using climate data/tools Education and awareness raising Conceptual framework to enable cause/effect relationships Risk and vulnerability indicators Multi-scale maps which locate risk and vulnerability Decision support systems Essential High importance Low importance Don’t know / unsure Essential: Provision of observed climate and weather data; Tools for analysing climate data; Decision Support Systems. High importance: Education and awareness raising; Guidance in using climate data/tools; Risk and vulnerability indicators. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Temperature Rainfall Snow Wind speed Wind direction Wind consistency Extreme events Sea level 0 2 4 6 8 10 Sea surface temperature Salinity Wave height Direct radiation Total radiation Cloud cover Humidity Pressure at sea level Parameters considered essential and desirable: Temperature; Rainfall; Extreme events; Sea level; Wave height. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 annual seasonal monthly daily sub-daily 0 2 4 6 8 10 City/town Catchment County/province Larger sub-national region National Spatial scale required. Temporal scale required. Projections required. Projections for the next 30, 40 and 50 years are considered as essential, especially at the catchment (i.e. basin) and sub-national scale, and considering a medium (50 km) to fine (1 km) resolution, and the daily, annual and seasonal scale. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 next 10 years next 20 years next 30 years next 40 years next 50+ years Extreme precipitations; Extreme events; Evapotranspiration; Extreme heat waves; Storm surge; Steric sea-level. DESYCO can provide several climate services (e.g. hazard, exposure, susceptibility, risk and damage maps; geospatial indicators) supporting the integration of climate change impact assessment in the decision making process; DESYCO can facilitate the transfer of knowledge produced by climate models and coming from the analysis of climate observations in order to provide information easily usable by different end-users; DESYCO can be used to bridge the gap between climate research and different sectors of society (e.g. citizens, stakeholders, decision makers) supporting the implementation of risk management and adaptation strategies; Early Involvement of stakeholders in the process allows to produce climate services tailored to specific end-user needs, thus improving the efficiency of policy and decision-making processes. Torresan, S., Critto, A., Dalla Valle, M., Harvey, N. and Marcomini, A., A regional risk assessment framework for climate change impacts evaluation in a coastal zone management perspective. In Özhan, E. (Editor), Proceedings of the Eighth International Conference on the Mediterranean Coastal Environment, 13-17 November 2007, Alexandria, Egypt, MEDCOAST, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey, 2, 741-752, 2007. WMO, 2010. Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in mainstreaming climate services for climate risk management. WMO position paper prepared to support national meteorological and hydrological services for UNFCCC sixteenth conference of parties (COP 16). Cancún, Mexico, 29 November–10 December 2010. WMO, 2011. Climate knowledge for action: a global framework for climate services– empowering the most vulnerable. The report of the high-level taskforce for the global framework for climate services. CLIM-RUN PROJECT MAIN OBJECTIVE: to develop a protocol for applying new methodologies and improved modeling and downscaling tools for the provision of adequate climate information at regional to local scale that is relevant to and usable by different sectors of society (policymakers, industry, cities, etc.). WP8 - INTEGRATED CASE STUDY FOR THE NORTH ADRIATIC COAST: Development of a participative process in order to understand stakeholder information needs concerning climate change for the implementation of the ICZM Protocol; Involvement of stakeholders in the application of risk-based approaches for the assessment of climate change impacts for each sector of interest (e.g. agriculture, coastal and marine environment and hydroclimatic regime); Exchange of knowledge on relevant climate information and identification of a subset of climate services for coastal areas. DESYCO is a useful tool to bridge the gap between climate information and stakeholder needs providing tailored climate services in the field of climate impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessment for a wild range of stakeholders. DESYCO could provide several outputs for the analysis of multiple climate change impacts and receptors useful for different stakeholder needs. Three thematic working groups were identified: group 1 related to extreme climate/weather events; group 2 related to shoreline and marine issues; group 3 focused on droughts and irrigation. REFERENCES:
Transcript of DESYCO: a Decision Support System to provide … · DEcision support SYstem for COastal climate...
DESYCO: a Decision Support System to provide climate services for coastal stakeholders dealing with climate change impacts.
Torresan S.1,2, Gallina V.1, Giannini V.3,Rizzi J.1,2, Zabeo A.1,2, Critto A.1,2, Marcomini A.1,2.
1 Centro-Euro Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Impacts on Soil and Coast Division c/o University Ca’ Foscari Venice, Calle Larga S. Marta 2137, I-30123 Venice, Italy.
2 Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca’ Foscari Venice, Calle Larga S. Marta 2137, I-30123 Venice, Italy.
3 Centro-Euro Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Economical and Political Impacts related to Climate Change Divison c/o Fondazione Eni-Enrico Mattei (FEEM) Isola di San Giorgio Maggiore, I-30124 Venezia, Italy.
ABSTRACT At the international level climate services are recognized as innovative tools aimed at providing and distributing climate data and information according to the needs of end-users (WMO, 2010; WMO, 2011). Furthermore, needs-based climate services are extremely effective to manage climate risks and take advantage of the opportunities associated with climate change impacts. To date, climate services are mainly related to climate models that supply climate data (e.g. temperature, precipitations) at different spatial and time scales. However, there is a significant gap of tools aimed at providing information about risks and impacts induced by climate change and allowing non-expert stakeholders to use both climate-model and climate-impact data. DESYCO is a GIS-Decision Support System aimed at the integrated assessment of multiple climate change impacts on vulnerable coastal systems (e.g. beaches, river deltas, estuaries and lagoons, wetlands, agricultural and urban areas). It is an open source software that manages different input data (e.g. raster or shapefiles) coming from climate models (e.g. global and regional climate projections) in order to provide hazard, exposure, susceptibility, risk and damage maps for the identification and prioritization of hot-spot areas and to provide a basis for the definition of coastal adaptation and management strategies. Within the CLIM-RUN project (FP7) DESYCO is proposed as an helpful tool to bridge the gap between climate data and stakeholder needs.
Hazard map: represents potentially significant hazards that could determine climate change impacts.
CONCLUSIONS:
Scenario construction
Integrated impact/risk assessment
Impact/risk management
Simulation models Classes and Thresholds
Simulation models
Selection of
Impact indicators
Selection of
impact factors
Actions and responses
Selection of climate
stressors and drivers
Future climate
change scenarios
Vulnerability
AssessmentRegional Risk Assessment
Socio-economic
Assessment
ICZM
Prioritization of impactsPrioritization of targets Prioritization
of areas
Selection of
impacts
Socio-economic
Indexes
Vulnerability
Indexes
Selection of
impacts
CLIMATE DATA (basic parameters)
(Torresan et al., 2007)
REGIONAL RISK ASSESSMENT (RRA) CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK
CLIMATE IMPACT DATA (derived parameters)
Temperature;
Sea-level rise;
Climate models and time series analysis provide basic parameters for the construction of climate change scenarios:
STAKEHOLDER NEEDS: CLIMATE DATA
CLIM-RUN CASE STUDY AREA: NORTH ADRIATIC COAST
STAKEHOLDER NEEDS: CLIMATE IMPACT DATA
DESYCO is a software that implements the RRA methodology in order to identify, prioritize and visualize areas and targets at risk from climate change impacts on coastal areas at the regional scale.
A first workshop was organized in Venice (Italy) with coastal authorities in order to start a process for producing climate information tailored to their specific needs.
DEcision support SYstem for COastal climate change
impact assessment (DESYCO)
Exposure map: identifies and classifies the areas where the hazard can be in contact with the. potential targets.
Susceptibility map: identify areas more susceptible to different climate change impacts based on site-specific information.
Risk maps: combination of hazard and susceptibility maps which enable the identification and ranking of areas and targets at risk.
Damage map: combination of risk and value maps which provide a relative estimation of the potential social, economic and environmental losses.
Value map: represent the spatial distribution of environmental and socio-economic value associated to each receptor.
What receptors should be considered for the analysis of impacts,
vulnerability and risks, related to climate change on coastal zones?
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Bea
ches
Delta
s an
d es
tuar
ies
Wetla
nds
Hyd
rologica
l sys
tems
Gro
und
biologi
cal s
yste
ms
Mar
ine bio
logica
l sys
tems
Pro
tected
areas
Fishin
g gr
ound
s
Urb
an a
reas
Agr
icultu
re la
nd
Gro
undw
ater
Lake
s
Pop
ulatio
n
Key
ston
e sp
ecie
s ha
bita
t
Touris
m a
nd le
isure
are
as
Crit
ical in
frastru
cture
Infra
strc
ture
for t
ertia
ry sec
tor
sta
keh
old
ers
' an
sw
ers
Beaches, deltas and estuaries,
wetlands, hydrological systems,
agricultural areas and keystone species
habitats were considered important
coastal receptors by at least 8/13 of
the interviewed stakeholders.
What do you consider to be the most important roles of climate services?
0
2
4
6
8
Provision of observed climate and weather
data
Provision of seasonal forecasts
Provision of decadal predictions
Provision of climate change
projections
Tools for displaying climate data
Tools for analyzing climate data
Guidance in using climate data/toolsTraining in using climate data/tools
Education and awareness raising
Conceptual framework to enable
cause/effect relationships
Risk and vulnerability indicators
Multi-scale maps which
locate risk and vulnerability
Decision support systems
Essential
High importance
Low importance
Don’t know / unsure
Essential:
Provision of observed climate and
weather data;
Tools for analysing climate data;
Decision Support Systems.
High importance:
Education and awareness raising;
Guidance in using climate data/tools;
Risk and vulnerability indicators.
Parameters/variables required (A)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Temperature
Rainfall
Snow
Wind speed
Wind direction
Wind consistency
Extreme events
Sea level
Essential
Desirable
Interesting
Don’t know / unsure
Parameters/variables required (B)
0
2
4
6
8
10
Sea surface temperature
Salinity
Wave height
Direct radiation
Total radiation
Cloud cover
Humidity
Pressure at sea level
Essential
Desirable
Interesting
Don’t know / unsure
Parameters considered essential
and desirable:
Temperature;
Rainfall;
Extreme events;
Sea level;
Wave height. Specification of climate data needs: Temporal resolution required
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
annual
seasonal
monthlydaily
sub-daily
Essential
Desirable
Interesting
Don’t know / unsure
Specification of climate data needs: Region(s) required
0
2
4
6
8
10City/town
Catchment
County/provinceLarger sub-national region
National
Essential
Desirable
Interesting
Don’t know / unsure
Spatial scale required. Temporal scale required. Projections required.
Projections for the next 30, 40 and 50 years are considered as essential, especially at the catchment (i.e. basin) and sub-national scale, and considering a medium (50 km) to fine (1 km) resolution, and the daily, annual and seasonal scale.
Specification of climate data needs: Do you want climate change projections?
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
next 10 years
next 20 years
next 30 yearsnext 40 years
next 50+ years
Essential
Desirable
Interesting
Don’t know / unsure
Extreme precipitations;
Extreme events;
Evapotranspiration;
Extreme heat waves;
Storm surge;
Steric sea-level.
DESYCO can provide several climate services (e.g. hazard, exposure, susceptibility, risk and damage maps; geospatial indicators) supporting the integration of climate change impact assessment in the decision making process;
DESYCO can facilitate the transfer of knowledge produced by climate models and coming from the analysis of climate observations in order to provide information easily usable by different end-users;
DESYCO can be used to bridge the gap between climate research and different sectors of society (e.g. citizens, stakeholders, decision makers) supporting the implementation of risk management and adaptation strategies;
Early Involvement of stakeholders in the process allows to produce climate services tailored to specific end-user needs, thus improving the efficiency of policy and decision-making processes.
Torresan, S., Critto, A., Dalla Valle, M., Harvey, N. and Marcomini, A., A regional risk assessment framework for climate change impacts evaluation in a coastal zone management perspective. In Özhan, E. (Editor), Proceedings of the Eighth International Conference on the Mediterranean Coastal Environment, 13-17 November 2007, Alexandria, Egypt, MEDCOAST, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey, 2, 741-752, 2007. WMO, 2010. Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in mainstreaming climate services for climate risk management. WMO position paper prepared to support national meteorological and hydrological services for UNFCCC sixteenth conference of parties (COP 16). Cancún, Mexico, 29 November–10 December 2010. WMO, 2011. Climate knowledge for action: a global framework for climate services–empowering the most vulnerable. The report of the high-level taskforce for the global framework for climate services.
CLIM-RUN PROJECT MAIN OBJECTIVE: to develop a protocol for applying new methodologies and improved modeling and downscaling tools for the provision of adequate climate information at regional to local scale that is relevant to and usable by different sectors of society (policymakers, industry, cities, etc.). WP8 - INTEGRATED CASE STUDY FOR THE NORTH ADRIATIC COAST:
Development of a participative process in order to understand stakeholder information needs concerning climate change for the implementation of the ICZM Protocol;
Involvement of stakeholders in the application of risk-based approaches for the assessment of climate change impacts for each sector of interest (e.g. agriculture, coastal and marine environment and hydroclimatic regime);
Exchange of knowledge on relevant climate information and identification of a subset of climate services for coastal areas.
DESYCO is a useful tool to bridge the gap between climate information and stakeholder needs providing tailored climate services in the field of climate impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessment for a wild range of stakeholders.
DESYCO could provide several outputs for the analysis of multiple climate change impacts
and receptors useful for different stakeholder needs.
Three thematic working groups were identified: group 1 related to extreme climate/weather events; group 2 related to shoreline and marine issues; group 3 focused on droughts and irrigation.
REFERENCES:
