Despite improvements, more than one million likely to remain in

SOMALIA Post-Deyr 2012 Food Security and Nutrition Outlook January to June 2013

Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC

EUROPEAN COMMISSION

www.fews.net/somalia www.fsnau.org

Despite improvements, more than one million likely to remain in Crisis through June 2013

KEY MESSAGES

• As a result of positive impact of the goodDeyr rainson livestock and crop performance and continuedhumanitarian assistance, the number of people inCrisisandEmergency(IPCPhases3and4)hashalvedto1.05million.Evenso,malnutritionratesinSomaliaremain among the highest in the world, accordingto surveys conducted in October - December 2012.Humanitarianassistancetoprotectlivelihoods,reduceacutemalnutrition, and help themost food insecurepopulationsmeettheirfoodneedsisstillnecessary.

• WiththeonsetoftheJanuarytoMarch harsh Jilaal dryseason,livestockproductivitywillseasonallydecrease,butnomajorchangesinfoodsecurityclassificationareexpectedbetweennowandJune.However,livelihoodsinSomaliaremainatrisktoawidevarietyofhazardssuchaslimitedwateraccess.

• EarlyforecastsarethattheMarchtoMayGu rainswillbenormal tobelownormal in termsof total rainfall.However,iftotalseasonalrainfalliswellbelowaverageorverypoorlydistributedunlikeintheearlyforecast,the food insecure population is likely to increase.Theprimaryareasaffectedwould likelybe themaizegrowing,agropastoralareasoftheSouth.

Oct 2012 Sep 2013

Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

Hagaa dry seasonJilaal dry seasonDeyr (minor) rainy season Gu (main) rainy season

Ongoing conflict in southern and central regions expected to continue. Normal to below normal Gu rains (March-May) forecasted

Deyr harvest

Gu harvest

Main Lean season(agricultural)

Deyr off season harvest

Gu assessment

Deyr assessment

Livestock migration to dry season grazing areas

Camel calving (South)

Goat/Sheep lambing

Main lean season(pastoral)

Minor lean season (agricultural)

Minor lean season (pastoral)

Camel calving

Land preparation, planting and peak labor demand

Land preparation, planting and peak labor demand

Livestock migration to dry season grazing areas

Goat/Sheep lambing

Gu off season harvest

SEASONAL CALENDAR FOR A TYPICAL YEAR

Source:FEWSNETSomalia

Map 1: Current Acute Food Insecurity Situation, January 2013

This map represents acute food insecurity outcomes relevantfor emergency decision-making. It does not necessarily reflectchronic food insecurity. Visit www.fews.net/FoodInsecurityScaleformoreontheIntegratedFoodSecurityPhaseClassification(IPC)householdgroupscale

!.

!. !.

!.

!.

!.

!.

!.

!.

!.

!.

!.

!.

!.

!.

!.

!.

¹#

¹#

¹#

¹#

¹#¹#

!!

!!

!!

!!

!!

!!

!!

!!

!!

!!Hobyo

Eyl

Afmadow

Burco

Qardho

Ceerigaabo

Talex

Galkacyo

Luuq

Iskushuban

Ceel Bur

Bur Hakaba

Hargeysa

Dinsor

Bulo Barde

Xudun

Jariiban

Baardheere

Berbera

Baydhaba

Jilib

Burtinle

Sakow

Ceel Afweyne

Beled Weyne

Garowe

Kismayo

Zeylac

Caynabo

Qandala

Xudur

Dhusa Mareeb

Ceel Dheere

Cadale

Ceel Waq

Sablale

Laas Caanood

Bossaaso

Baki

Bu'aale

Calula

Cadaado

Garbaharey

Ceel Barde

Jowhar

Balcad

Wajid

Jalalaqsi

Badhadhe

Bandar BeylaOwdweyne

Taye

glow

Las Qoray/Badhan

Buuhoodle

Gebiley

Brava

Afgoye

Cabudwaaq

Sheikh

Wanle Weyne

Harardheere

Borama

Lughaye

Aden Yabal

Qoryoley

Bele

d Ha

wa

Dolo

Rab-Dhuure

Jamaame

Qansax Dheere

Goldogob

MarkaKurtun Warrey

BARI

BAY

MUDUG

SANAG

GEDO

SOOL

L. JUBA

HIIRAN

GALGADUD

NUGAL

BAKOOL

TOGDHEER

M. JUBA

W. GALBEED

AWDAL

L. SHABELLE

M. SHABELLE

BANADIRK

ENYA

HUDUR

BURAO

BAIDOA

JOWHAR

GAROWE

BORAMA

BU'AALE

GALKAYO

BOSSASO

ERIGABO

KISMAAYO

LAS ANOD

HARGEYSA

DUSAMAREB

GARBAHAREY

BELET WEYNE

±0 75 150 225 300 37537.5

Kilometers

Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit - Somalia http://www.fsnau.org


Technical Partners Funding Agencies

P.O. Box 1230 Village Market, Nairobi, Kenya Email: [email protected] tel: 254-20-4000000 fax:254-20-4000555 FSNAU is managed by FAOThe boundaries and names on these maps do not imply o fficial endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations. The reg ional & District boundaries reflect those endorsed by the Government of the Republic o f Somalia in 1986.

Somalia Acute Food Insecurity Situation OverviewRural, Urban & IDP Populations: Jan 2013

21,000 (4%)TotalUrbanRural




0 (0%)TotalUrbanRural


38,000 (12%)

37,000 (11%)

TotalUrbanRural

TotalUrbanRural


Phase % of (000s) Total Pop

3 4% 279

4 1% 108

5 0% 0

Aggregate Numbers Rural and Urban Populations

in Phases 3, 4 & 5

=10% of the population

Source: FSNAU

SOMALIAPost-Deyr2012FoodSecurityandNutritionOutlookFebruary12,2013

2 Famine Early Warning Systems Network/USAID and Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit/FAO Somalia

NATIONAL OVERVIEW

Current Situation

Rural Areas

Above average harvest increased the food stocks atthe household level, while livestock production andvalue have improved. Along with these gains in foodand income, humanitarian interventions continuedaccording to the latest data gathered by FSNAU andpartnersinDecember2012.

TheOctobertoDecember2012Deyr rainswereaveragetoaboveaverageinmostpartsofthecountry:• Northwest:InmostofWestGolisandGubanpastoral

livelihood zones, there was dry weather fromOctobertoDecember,whichisthenormalseasonalpattern.However, as isusual,moderateDecembertoFebruaryHays rainsstartedinDecemberintheseareas. The December rains were well distributedexceptinZeylacdistrictandeasternpartofBerberadistrictwhererainswerepoorlydistributed.However,noHaysrainsfell inJanuary2013exacerbatingthedry conditions that have persisted in some areassincelate2010.

• Northeast:The rainfall performance in the pastoralareaswasfairlygoodandevenlydistributedincludingintheCoastalDeehlivelihoodzone,whichhadlargerainfalldeficitsoverthepastseveralseasons

• Central regions: Rainfall inmost of the Hawd andAddun pastoral livelihood zones, and the cowpeagrowingareas(centralagropastorallivelihoodzone),wereaveragewithgoodfrequencyanddistribution.NearaveragerainfallwasalsoreceivedinmostpartsofCoastalDeehlivelihoodzoneinthecentralregions,whichhadreceivedpoorprecipitationduringtheApriltoJuneGu2012.

• South:Widelydistributed,moderatetoheavyrainsfell.TherewereexceptionsintheagropastoralareasofLowerJubaandnorthernGedoregionwhererainfallwasinsufficientfornormalcropdevelopment.

As a result of the Deyr rains, maize, sorghum, and cash crop production occurred on a seasonally normal schedule with overall above average output. This season, some farmers shifted from cereals to moreprofitable sesame as cereal prices have remained low inmany areas since the previousDeyr harvest inJanuary2012.MaizeandsorghumproductionfromtheDeyr2012isestimatedtobenearly145,000metrictons(MT),whichis46percenthigherthanthePostWarAverage(PWA-16-yearaverage)and51percenthigherthanthefive-yearaverage.Inspiteofthisproduction,Somaliaproducesonlyslightlyover40percentof itsannualcereal requirementevenduring thenormal seasons.Bay regioncontributesmore thanhalfofSomalia’ssorghumproduction,andproductionwasexeptionallygood inBayand inLowerandMiddle

Source: FSNAUThis map represents acute food insecurity outcomes relevant for emergency decision-making. It does not necessarily reflect chronic food

insecurity. Visit www.fews.net/FoodInsecurityScale for more on the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) household group scale.

Map 2. Projected Acute Food Insecurity Situation, February to June 2013 (Most Likely Scenario)

!.

!. !.

!.

!.

!.

!.

!.

!.

!.

!.

!.

!.

!.

!.

!.

!.

¹#

¹#

¹#

¹#

¹#¹#

!!

!!

!!

!!

!!

!!

!!

!!

!!

!!

X

X

X

X

X

XX

Hobyo

Eyl

Afmadow

Burco

Qardho

Ceerigaabo

Talex

Galkacyo

Luuq

Iskushuban

Ceel Bur

Bur Hakaba

Hargeysa

Dinsor

Bulo Barde

Xudun

Jariiban

Baardheere

Berbera

Baydhaba

Jilib

Burtinle

Sakow

Ceel Afweyne

Beled Weyne

Garowe

Kismayo

Zeylac

Caynabo

Qandala

Xudur

Dhusa Mareeb

Ceel Dheere

Cadale

Ceel Waq

Sablale

Laas Caanood

Bossaaso

Baki

Bu'aale

Calula

Cadaado

Garbaharey

Ceel Barde

Jowhar

Balcad

Wajid

Jalalaqsi

Badhadhe

Bandar BeylaOwdweyne

Taye

glow

Las Qoray/Badhan

Buuhoodle

Gebiley

Brava

Afgoye

Cabudwaaq

Sheikh

Wanle Weyne

Harardheere

Borama

Lughaye

Aden Yabal

Qoryoley

Bele

d Ha

wa

Dolo

Rab-Dhuure

Jamaame

Qansax Dheere

Goldogob

MarkaKurtun Warrey

BARI

BAY

MUDUG

SANAG

GEDO

SOOL

L. JUBA

HIIRAN

GALGADUD

NUGAL

BAKOOL

TOGDHEER

M. JUBA

W. GALBEED

AWDAL

L. SHABELLE

M. SHABELLE

BANADIR

KEN

YAHUDUR

BURAO

BAIDOA

JOWHAR

GAROWE

BORAMA

BU'AALE

GALKAYO

BOSSASO

ERIGABO

KISMAAYO

LAS ANOD

HARGEYSA

DUSAMAREB

GARBAHAREY

BELET WEYNE

±0 75 150 225 300 37537.5

Kilometers

Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit - Somalia http://www.fsnau.org


Technical Partners Funding Agencies

P.O. Box 1230 Village Market, Nairobi, Kenya Email: [email protected] tel: 254-20-4000000 fax:254-20-4000555 FSNAU is managed by FAOThe boundaries and names on these maps do not imply o fficial endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations. The reg ional & District boundaries reflect those endorsed by the Government of the Republic o f Somalia in 1986.

Somalia Acute Food Insecurity Situation OverviewRural, Urban & IDP Populations:: February - June, 2013 Most Likely Scenario





0 (0%)TotalUrbanRural


38,000 (12%)

37,000 (11%)

TotalUrbanRural

TotalUrbanRural


Phase % of (000s) Total Pop

3 4% 328

4 1% 107

5 0% 0

Aggregate Numbers Rural and Urban Populations

in Phases 3, 4 & 5

=10% of the population

SOMALIA Post-Deyr2012FoodSecurityandNutritionOutlook February12,2013

Famine Early Warning Systems Network/USAID and Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit/FAO Somalia 3

Shabelleregions.However,theagropastoralareasofLowerJubaandGedoregionsexperiencedsignificantlybelow average crop production. In addition to cereals, nearly 51,000MT of other cropswas harvested,includingbutnotlimitedtosesame,cowpeas,rice,groundnuts,andwatermelons.ThesehighvaluecropsweremainlyharvestedinLowerandMiddleShabelleandJuba,Gedo,Hiran,andGalgadudregions.

Rangeland conditions in the most pastoral livelihoods zones in the country are near average, exceptforSoolPlateau,somepartsoftheEastGolispastorallivelihoodzone,theDharoorValleyofSanagregion,andtheNugalValleyinSoolregion,whereDeyrrainfallwasbelowaverage.Asacosequence,livestockmigratedtoareaswithbetterpastureandbrowseconditionearlierthannormal,butthemigrationwasprimarilytonormalareasofmigration.DuetopoorrainsintheSoolPlateauandNugalValleyinSoolandSanagregions,abnormallivestockoutmigrationstoadjacentareasoftheSoolPlateauinBariregionhavebeenobserved.OnDecember24and25,torrential,coldrainsfellfornearly25hoursinpartsofEylandDangorayodistrictsofNugalregion.Asaresult,asignificantnumberoflivestockdeathcausedbyhypothermiawasreportedinlocalisedareas.

As a result of the October to December Deyr rains, both pasture and water availability have increased and contributed to improved livestock body condition.TheTermsofTrade(ToT)betweenlocalqualitygoatandcerealshaveremainedfavorableandhaverisensinceearly2012.Cerealpriceshavebeenlowerthanintheyearbefore(Deyr 2011harvest),andlocalqualitygoatpriceshavebeenexceptionallyhighinmanymarketssinceApril orMay, before thepeakexport period. Thesehigher local quality goatprices and low cerealpricescontinuedintoDecemberinmostpastoralandagropastorallivelihoodzones,keepingToTfavorableforhouseholdsthatneedtosellgoatsinordertobuycereals.Inthepastoralareas,inOctoberandNovember,mostlivestockspecieseitherconceivedorweremilking.ExceptionswerefoundinwesternGubanpastorallivelihoodzone,partsoftheSoolPlateau,andCoastalDeeh livelihoodzone.Barringthoseexceptions,withrecentbirths livestockholdingsandherdsizesforpoorhouseholds increasedacrossallspeciessinceJuly2012.Overall,reportedherdsizesinDecember2012werestillbelowhouseholdeconomybaselineprofilelevels,whichwererecordedasrecentlyas2009to2011inmanyareasofnorthernSomalia.However,camelholdingsintheHawdandWestandEastGolispastorallivelihoodzonesoftheNorthwestincreasedsinceJulyandwereabovebaselinelevels.

ToTbetweendailycasuallaborwagestocerealsarealsofavorableforboththeruralandurbandaylaborers.TheToThaveincreasedfurthersinceJuly2012,andtheyremainabovetheirfive-yearaveragelevels.Thesewagesfacilitateaccesstofoodfrommarketsforhouseholdsthatdependheavilyoncasuallaborasasourceofincome.

Afterthreeyearsofdevastatingrecurringdroughtsfrom2008to2011,inCoastal Deeh pastoral livelihood zone,poorhouseholdsarebenefittingfromthreeconsecutivegoodrainseasons(Deyr2011,Gu2012andDeyr2012),whichhaveenhancedpastureandwaterconditionsandsignificantlyimprovedlivestockvalueandreproductionrates.Anutritionassessmentbasedonmiddle-upperarmcircumference(MUAC)inDecembershowsMUACunder12.5cmin10.1percentofcases.ThisratehasremainedunchangedfromJuly2012andremainsCritical althoughimprovedfromVery Critical comparedtoDecember2011.Basedonthesefactors,inCoastalDeeh pastorallivelihoodzone,poorhousehold’saccesstofoodimproved,althoughtheareastillremainsinCrisis(IPCPhase3)duetothelimittedassetholding(livestock).

Duetoincreasedcropproduction,improvedlivestockproduction,increasedlivestockvalues,andfavorablecasual daily labor rates, food security outcomes for themost rural parts of the country have improvedsignificantlysinceAugust2012.MostruralareasofthecountryarecurrentlyStressed(IPCPhase2)althougheveninStressed(IPCPhase2)areas,thereremainmanypoorhouseholdsstillineitherCrisis(IPCPhase3)



orEmergency(IPCPhase4).TheexceptionstothesignificantimprovementssinceAugustareGubanpastorallivelihoodzone,JamamedistrictofLowerJubaagropastorallivelihoodzone,andpartsoftheCoastalDeehlivelihoodzoneinthecentralregionswhereoutcomesremainclassifiedinCrisis(IPCPhase3).

Urban Areas

Muchlikeinruralareas,theDecember2012assessmentresultsindicatedimprovedfoodsecurityoutcomesinurbanareassinceJuly2012.Keyoutcomesoftheassessmentindicateimprovedfoodaccess.Forexample,lessthan10percentofurbanhouseholdsintheNorthandBanadirwereemployingseverecopingstrategies,such as the reliance on support from the community or relatives to obtain food. Households reportedincreasedownershipofmorediverserangeofassets,includingproductiveassets.Thenumberofproductiveandotherassetsowned increased slightly in theNorth.Householdsmostly reported stableor improvedaccesstovariousincomesourcesincludingcasuallabor,skilledlabor,pettytrade,andself-employment.

In most regions of the North, over 80 percent ofurban households had acceptable food consumptionas defined by their Food Consumption Score (FCS).TheFCS isa tool tomeasure foodconsumptionusingboth reported dietary diversity and frequency ofconsumption. The December scores in the Northrepresent an improvement in the FCSs recorded inJuly and August 2012. In Banadir Region, about 78percentofhouseholdshadacceptableconsumption,areductionfromJuly2012estimatesof86percent(Figure1). The households that reported poor to borderlinefood consumption are also characterized by havinga relatively higher percentage of total expendituresdevotedtofood.Mostarespendingmorethan75percentoftotalexpendituresonfoodalone.Theyalsoreportedhighlevelofdebtsincurredfrompurchasesofbothfoodandnon-fooditems.

While incomehasbeensteadyorrising formanyhouseholds, thecostof foodandothernecessitieshasfallenslightly.TheMinimumExpenditureBasket(MEB)isabasketofgoods,services,andobligatoryfees,whichisusedfortrackingthepricesofconsumergoodsandservicesandservesasalessdata-intensiveproxyforothermeasurementsoftheoverallcostoflivingsuchasconstructionofaconsumerpriceindex(CPI).ThistotalmonthlycostforagivenregiontosupportahouseholdofsixtosevenpeopleisreferredtoastheCostoftheMinimumExpenditureBasket(CMB).FromJuly2012toDecember2012,theCMBdeclinedbetween5and11percentinmosturbanareasoftheSouth,includingBanadir,LowerShabelle,Bay,andHiranregionswhileitremainedstableintheremainingurbanareasintheSouth.Inthecentralregions,itdeclinedbetween13and17percent.InsouthernandcentralSomalia,theincreaseinportactivityinMogadishu,aswellasdeclininglocallyproducedcerealpricesledtothisimprovedcostoflivingasmeasuredbythedecliningCMBinmostsouthernregionsandstrengthenedpurchasingpoweroftheurbanpoor.IntheNortheast,inSanag,Bari,andNugalregions,thedeclineswerebetween4and14percent.However,intheNorthwest,theCMBwasmostlystablefromJulytoDecember2012.

While the CMBprovides a guide to the overall cost of living, the actual purchasing power of the urbanpoorcanbeapproximatelymeasuredthroughthecasual,dailylaborwagestocerealsToT.Inmostregionsfrom July 2012 toDecember2012, the ToTbetweendaily, casual laborwages and locally grown cerealsincreased.InmostregionsoftheSouth,thelabortolocalcerealToTincreasedbetween2and7kilograms

Figure 1: Food Consumption Score in urban areas, December 2012

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Awdal W.Galbeed Sool Bari Nugaal N Mudug Banadir

acceptable borderline poor



(kg), meaning a casual laborer’s wages foronedaywouldpurchasethismuchmoreredsorghumorwhitemaizeinDecemberthanitdidinJuly.ThelabortocerealsToTincreasedfromonetotwokgperdayinotherpartsoftheSouth, inthecentral regions,and intheNortheast. The December 2012 ToT rangedfrom15 to22kgperday in theSouthwiththeexceptionofBakol regionwhereaday’swageonlyearnsenoughtopurchasesixkgofredsorghumandinLowerJubaRegionwhereaday’swageonlyearnsenoughtopurchase10kgofwhitemaize.IntheCentralregions,theDecember2012day’swagetolocalcerealToTarearound6or7kgofgrainforeachday’swagewhiletheyarebetween6and8kgintheNortheastandbetween8and12kgoflocalcerealperday’sworkintheNorthwest.Overall,theDecember2012dailylaborwagetolocallyproducedcerealToTaresignificantlyabovetheirfive-yearaveragesexceptforinBakolRegionwhereToTremainnearthefive-yearaverage(Figure2).

Despite the improved food security in manyparts of the South, food spending among theurban poor in parts of southern and centralSomalia remainswell above75percentof totalexpenditures, which may indicate continueddifficulties accessing food. Among the urbanpoor,thepercentageofhouseholdincomespenton food remainsparticularlyhigh in the centralregions at 84 percent of total expenditures,in Lower Juba region at 83 percent of totalexpenditures,andinBakolat77percentoftotalexpenditures.Conflictthathasrestrainedtrade,marketactivities,andlaboraccessfortheurbanpoor may be one cause of the persistence ofthesehighexpenditurelevelsonfood(Figure3).

FromJuly2012toDecember2012,theurbanpopulationestimatedtobeinacutefoodinsecuritycrisis(IPCPhase3orhigher)reducedfrom450,000to152,000people. Inadditiontotheurbanpooratthehigherendof theacute food insecurity IPCscale,anestimated340,000urbanpeopleareclassifiedasStressed(IPCPhase2).Sixtythreepercentoftheurbanpopulation inCrisis (IPCPhase3)arestillconcentrated intheSouth.Asignificantnumber,estimatedtobe36percentoftheurbanpopulationinCrisis(IPCPhase3)orhigherareintheNorth,andonlyaveryfewcases,representingapproximatelyonepercentoftheurbanpopulation inCrisis (IPC Phase 3) or higher are found in the theCentral regions. Similarly, of the urbanpopulationclassifiedasStressed(IPCPhase2),63percentareintheSouth,37percentintheNorth,and10percentinthecentralregions.

Settlements of Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs)

FromOctobertoDecember2012,FSNAUandpartnersconductedfoodsecurityassessmentsintenofthelargerIDPsettlementsinSomalia.AlargeproportionoftheIDPshadpoorfoodconsumptionasmeasured

Figure 3: Food Expenditures as a Percentage of Total Expenditures IDP Settlements, October To December 2012

0.66

0.68

0.7

0.72

0.74

0.76

0.78

0.8

Har

geis

a

Ber

bera

Bur

co

Bos

saso

Qar

cho

Gar

owe

Gal

kayo

Dhu

sam

areb

Ban

aadi

r

Bai

doa

% fo

od e

xpen

ditu

re

Figure 2: Daily Labor Wage to Cereal ToT by Trade Basin, December 2007 to December 2012

0

5

10

15

20

25

Dec

-07

Mar

-08

Jun-

08

Sep-

08

Dec

-08

Mar

-09

Jun-

09

Sep-

09

Dec

-09

Mar

-10

Jun-

10

Sep-

10

Dec

-10

Mar

-11

Jun-

11

Sep-

11

Dec

-11

Mar

-12

Jun-

12

Sep-

12

Dec

-12

Kg p

er D

aily

Lab

our W

age

Month

Central (red sorghum) Northeast (red sorghum) Northwest (white sorghum) Sorghum-belt (red sorghum) Shabelle (white maize) Juba (white maize)



bytheFCS.Thesehouseholdsownedalownumberofassets.Theyhadverylimiteddiversityintheirsourcesofincome,andtheyheldhighlevelsofdebt.InHargeisa,Baidoa,andGarowe,whenusingtheinformationfromthesurveyandfromnutritionalsurveys,theIDPsettlementswereclassifiedinCrisis(IPCPhase3).IDPsettlements inBerbera,Burco,Bossaso,Qardho,Galkayo,Dhusamareb,andBanadirRegion (Mogadishu),wereclassifiedinEmergency(IPCPhase4).Anestimated615,000IDPsthroughoutthecountryareinacutefoodinsecuritycrisis.

Current Nutritional Status

From October to December 2012, FSNAU and partnersconducted42nutritionsurveys inSomaliausingStandardizedMonitoringandAssessmentofReliefandTransitions(SMART)methods. These surveys indicate that the nutrition situationimproved(Map3)sincethesurveysconductedinApriltoJuly2012.

• Globalacutemalnutrition(GAM)rateshavereducedsinceJuly 2012 from Very Critical (20.0 to 29.9 percent) toCritical levels (15.0to19.9percent)amongpastoralists inWestGolisandGubanpastorallivelihoodzonesandamongagropastoralistsinBayregion.IntheNugalValley,theratefellfromVery CriticaltoSerious(10.0to14.9percent).Mostotherareas remainunchanged,but inMatabandistrict inHiran region, theGAMratedeteriorated fromtheCriticalto theVery Critical level.Amongsettlementsof internallydisplaced persons (IDPs), the GAM rate remained at theCritical to Very Criticallevels.However,IDPsettlementsinHargeisaandGaroweremainedatSerioustoCriticallevels.

• SevereAcuteMalnutrition(SAM)rateshaveeitherdeclinedsinceJuly2012orbeensustainedwithinAcceptablelevels(under2.5percent).AfewexceptionstothisgeneraltrendswerefoundintheHawdoftheNorthwestand inAddunpastoral livelihood zonewhere SAM rateswere at theAlert level (2.5 to 3.4 percent),amongagropastoralistsinnorthernGedoregionwhereSAMrateswereattheSerious level(3.5to4.4percent),inBeletweyneDistrictinHiranregionwheretheywereattheCriticallevel(4.5to5.9percent),andinMatabanDistrictinHiranregionwheretheywereattheVery Criticallevel(6.0to9.9percent). IDPsinsettlementsinDolo,Dobley,Berbera,andQardhohadCritical to Very CriticallevelsofSAMrates.

• Acrossthecountry,CrudeDeathRates(CDR)arebelowtheemergencyleveloftwoper10,000perdaywhilethedeathratesforchildrenundertheageoffivearealsobelowtheemergencyleveloffourper10,000perday.TheselevelsaredefinedbytheUnitedNationsChildren’sFund(UNICEF)2005standards.

• Basedonatwoweeksrecallperiod,morbidityratesremainedhigh.Oftheassessedunderfive-year-oldchildrenacrossthecountry,over20percentreportedsomeformofsicknessoverthepreciedingtwoweeks.Morbidityratesexceeded40percentinpartsoftheSouth,includinginsomeIDPsettlements.

• Malnutritionrates(GAM)amongIDPswereclassifiedasSerious, Critical,orVeryCritical.

• TheurbannutritionsituationintheNorth,BanadirRegion(Mogadishu),andthecentralregionsremainedstableorimprovedandvariedfromtheAlerttotheSeriouslevel.ExceptionstothesetrendsinurbannutritionwerefoundinWoqooyiGalbeedandSanaagRegionswherethenutritionsituationdeterioratedfromtheAlert tothe Seriousphase.

Map 3: Current nutrition situation, January 2013 based on November and December surveys



A total of 215,000 children under five-years-old are acutely malnourished, representing 14.3 percent of the estimated 1.5 million children under the age of five who live in Somalia. Thisrepresentsaslightimprovementfromthe236,000 acutelymalnourishedchildren,16percentofthe1.5millionchildren,reportedinAugust2012.Outofthis,anestimate45,000children,threepercentofchildren,areseverelymalnourished,whichisaslightimprovementfromthe54,000children,3.5percent,reportedinAugust2012.SouthernSomaliahosts147,000ofthenationaltotalofacutelymalnourishedchildren.WhilethetotalnumberintheSouthisdownfrom168,000inAugust2012,themajorityofacutelymalnourishedchildrenremainintheSouthwith66percentofacutelymalnourishedchildrenlivingintheSouth.

Assumptions

TheFebruarytoJune2013outlookisbasedonthefollowingnationalassumptions:

Climate:

• TheMarchtoMayGurainsarelikelytostartontimebuttobeaveragetobelowaverageinvolume.TheriskofbelowaveragerainsisespeciallyhighintheSouthandthesouthernpartsofthecentralregions.

• AwarmerthannormaldryJanuarytoMarchJilaalseasonisexpected,particularlyintheSouthwithlesseffectonrangelandconditionsandwateravailability.

• IntheareaswheretheOctobertoDecemberDeyr 2012rainswerepoor,includingtheSoolPlateauandpartsofNugalValley,thedryJanuarytoMarchJilaal willlikelyleadtorapiddepletionofwaterresources,especiallysincemanyberkadsdidnotgetreplenishedduringthisDeyr.Longdistancestowaterpointsforlivestockarelikelytobeobservedowingtomorelimitedwateraccessduetothehighcostofwatertrucking.

Agriculture:

• CurrentstaplecerealpricesareverylowandlikelytosustainatthatlevelfollowingtheaboveaverageJanuaryDeyrharvest.Asplantingcerealsstillrequiressignificantcostsintermsoflabor,seeds,andotherinputs,farmersinthesurplusproductionareasforcerealssuchasBayandLowerShabellearelikelytoplantmorecashcrops(sesame,cowpea,groundnutsetc)thanusualduringApriltoJune Gu 2013season,duetothehighpotentialprofits.

• Demandforagriculturallabor,particularlyinthemaizeproducingareaswilllikelytodeclinefromnormalduringMayandJuneasmaizeperformancemaybeaffectedbyaveragetobelowaveragerainfalltotals,leadingtoadecreaseinagriculturallaborwagerates.

Livestock:

• Withtheexpectedaveragetobelowaveragerainfalltotals,grazingconditionsarelikelytobeseasonallyaverage,deterioratingsomeduringthedryJanuarytoMarchJilaal season,thenimprovingfollowingthestartoftheApriltoJuneGurains.

• Withaveragegrazingconditionsandlikelynolargescalediseaseoutbreaks,relativelygoodlivestockbodyconditionsareassumedtoprevailthroughatleastJune.

• Camelmilkavailability andaccesswill likely to remainaverage inpastoral livelihood zonesof centralandnorthernSomaliaasaresultofnormalexpectedrainfall,subsequentwateravailability,andpastureconditions.

• Livestockprices,particularlyforgoatsandcamelswillseasonallyincreasefromFebruarythroughatleastJuneaslivestockexportstotheMiddleEastslowlyresume.



Markets and Trade:

• Localsorghumandmaizepriceswill likelyincreaseslightlyorremainstableattheircurrentlowlevelsfromnowuntilJuneduetotheseasonaldecreasesfromtheaboveaverageDeyr harvest,andanearlyfully stocked cerealmarkets from recent harvests and from humanitarian supplies. These priceswillfollowusual,seasonal trendofaslight increasewithapeak in JunebeforegreenconsumptionofGu cropsbeginsinJuly.

• Declininginternationalpricesofvegetableoil,sugar,anddieselwilllikelycontributetoreduceddomesticpricesofthesecommoditiesoverthefirsthalfofthescenario(Jan-Mar‘13).InternationalricepricesarelikelytoremainrelativelystablethroughJuneasglobalriceproductionmayreachrecordlevelsinthe2012and2013marketingyear,whileimportedricepricesinSomaliawillcontinuetoberelativelystable.

• TheSomalishilling(SoSh)islikelytostabilizearoundSoSh20,000foreachU.S.dollar(USD)orcontinueto slightly appreciate against major foreign currencies due to continued growth of the economy ofMogadishu,relativestabilityinthecountry,andalimitedsupplyoftheSomalishilling.

• The Somaliland shilling (SlSh)will likely remain stable as foreign currencyearnings in the SomalilandshillingzoneoftheNorthwestseasonally increase inanticipationofgreaterforeigncurrencyearningsduringthelivestockexportpeakinSeptemberandOctober2013.

Humanitarian Assistance:

• Basedon theSomalia foodsecurity cluster’s (FSC) interventionplans for January toMarch2013, theplanned figures for interventions that support livelihoods, improve access to food, or provide socialsafetynetshavedecreasedfromtheirDecember2012level,andoverall,assistancewillbeassumedtomoderatelydecreaseduringtheJanuarytoMarchperiod.

Conflict:

• GovernmentofSomaliaforcessupportedbytheAfricanUnionMissioninSomalia(AMISOM)arelikelytocontinuetoincreasethefrequencyandscaleofmaneuvers,primarilyintheSouth.Also,lesscoordinatedattacksandcounter-maneuversfromarmedgroupsinmostpartsoftheSouthwillcontinue.Theconflictis likely to continue to restrict humanitarian access and disrupting trade andmovements of people,includingmigrantlaborers,andlivestockinconflictaffected-areas.ThemostaffectedareasarelikelytobeinLowerandMiddleShabelleRegions,LowerandMiddleJubaRegions,andGedoRegion.

Most Likely Food Security Outcomes

National Level

AccordingtoFoodSecurityandNutritionAnalysisUnit(FSNAU)oftheU.N.’sFoodandAgricultureOrganization(FAO)andtheFamineEarlyWarningSystemsNetwork(FEWSNET),anestimated1.05millionpeoplewillremaininafoodsecurityCrisisorEmergency(IPCPhase3or4)fromFebruarytoJune2013.FromJanuarytoMarch,mostofSomaliawillbeintheJilaal dryseason.Theproductivityoflivestockwillseasonallydecrease.Warmertemperaturesforecastforthisseasonarelikelytoleadtomorerapiddepletionofwatersourcesandadeclineinpastureandbrowseconditions,especiallyintheareasthathadpoorerrainfallduringtheOctobertoDecember2012Deyr,includingtheSoolPlateauandpartsoftheNugalValleyintheNortheast.Whilenomajorchanges in foodsecurityclassificationareexpectedbetweennowand June, livelihoods inSomaliaremainatrisktoawidevarietyofhazards.



Themost likely scenario assumes, based on early forecasts that theApril to June 2013Gu rainswill benormal tobelownormal inamountwithanearlynormal start.NormalornearnormalGu rainfall totalswould allowmany households to continuemeeting their food needs, recover from previous crises, andbuildassets.However,apoorerseasoncouldincreasethenumberofhouseholdsinfoodsecurityCrisis(IPCPhase3)orEmergency(IPCPhase4).Thebelownormalrainswouldprimarilyaffectrainfed,maize-growingareas in southern Somalia asmaizehas higherwater requirements than theothermore common cropssuchassorghum,cowpeas,andsesame.AgropastoralareasinLowerJubaregionandthemaize-growing,agropastoralareasofGedowouldwitnessthehighest impactonfoodsecurity,astheseareasalsohadapoorerDeyrharvestthanintherestoftheSouth.

Withaveragetobelowaveragerains,theoverallGu harvestinJulyandAugustislikelytobenearaverage.WhenaddedtothethejustcompletedDeyr harvest,usingthefive-yearaverageforGucropproduction,domesticproductionwouldsupplyaround40percentoftotalcerealneedsforSomalia,averynearaverageamount.Therestofthecerealbalancesheet(CBS)ismadeofcommerciallyimportedcerealsandhumanitarianfoodassistance.Usingthethree-yearaverageofcommercialcerealimportsandthecurrentlyplanned,funded,andlikelylevelofhumanitarianfoodassistance,thetotalCBSwouldstillhaveanimportgapofaonefifthoftotalcerealneeds.Thiscouldbemadeupbysubsequent increases inhumanitarianfoodassistanceorcommercialimportsbeforetheendof2013.

Between February and June 2013, the food security outcomes inmost pastoral livelihood zones in thecentralandnorthernregionsareexpectedtoremainstableatStressed(IPCPhase2).Whilethisrepresentsanimprovementinsomeareasfrompreviousoutlooks,householdscontinuetorelyonfoodaid,formalandinformalsafetynets,andself-employment,includingtheproductionofcharcoalandfirewoodgathering,tomeettheirfoodandnon-foodneeds.Theoutlookremainsstablethough,primarily,becauseoflargelystableandseasonallynormaltrends instaplefoodpricesandtheexpectedfurther improvement in livestocktocerealsToTasdemandforexportqualitylivestockincreasesoverthenextseveralmonths.Thecontinuedfavorablepricesof livestockand livestockproductsdue todemandboth in localandexportmarketsareexpectedtosupportcontinuedfavourabletermsoftrade.

BasedoncropharvestestimatesfortheJanuary2013Deyrharvest,crop-dependent,poorhouseholds inBayandLowerShabelleregionsareexpectedtoaccesstheircerealneedsforconsumptionfromtheirownproductionandstocksthroughJune.However,therestofagropastoralandriverineareasinthecountryinsouthernSomaliawillhaveonly3to4monthsofcerealstocks,sotheywillneedtostartmakingmarketpurchasesduringthescenariotosupplementtheirstocks.ThemajorexceptionareagropastoralhouseholdsinLowerJubaregionwhooftenhavenostocks.BasedonrainfallprospectsfortheApriltoJuneGu 2013rainsprovidingforfairlynormalseasonalprogressandtheimprovementsfromtheDeyr2012,foodsecurityoutcomeswillremainstablethroughJune2013.HoweverexceptionswillbedroughtaffectedareasintheNorthwest,theSoolPlateauinSanagregion,partsoftheNugalValley,andagropastoralareasofLowerandMiddleJubaandGedoregions.Intheseareas,foodsecurityoutcomesareexpectedtodeteriorateandtheywouldlikelydeterioratemoreiftheApriltoJuneGu2013rainsarebelowaverage.

ThepopulationinCrisisorEmergency(IPCPhase3or4)inurbanareaswillremainunchangedat152,000peoplefromFebruarytoJune2013.Thekeyassumptionbehindtheunchangingsituationistheanticipatedstabilityoflocalandimportedfoodpricesandthestableresultingcostofliving,resultingfromaboveaveragemarketfoodsuppliesfromDeyr production,averagecommercial imports,andnormalflowshumanitarianfoodaid.ThegovernmentmayexpandtheircontrolintomoreareasintheSouth,whichwillcouldfurtherincreasetrademovements,humanitarianaccess,andeconomicactivities.



Nutrition Outcomes

The nutrition situation outlook for February to April 2013 isinferred from current estimates of the nutritional situation,and seasonal trends from data collected from 2001 to 2011,alongsidewith historical disease patterns andprojected foodsecuritytrendsfortheFebruarytoApril2013period(Map4).Ingeneral,thenutritionsituationislikelytoremainstableacrossthe country in the coming threemonths with exceptions, asfollows:

• The Sool Plateau could deteriorate to the Serious phase,consistent with declining water availability during theJilaal,associateddeclinesinfoodsecurity,andthetypicallyseasonallyelevatedlevelsassociatedwiththeJilaal.

• Bakol,Hiran,andnorthernGedoregionsarelikelytobeintheCritical phase,consistentwithseasonallyhighlevels.

• Middle and Lower Shabelle regions are likely to be nearmedian(2001-2011)levels,andentertheSeriousphase.

AREAS OF CONCERN

Lower Juba Agropastoral Livelihood Zone (Jamame district)

Current Situation

Due to the late start and significantly below average totalrainfall from the October to December Deyr rains in theagropastoralareasofLowerJuba,theDeyrharvestinJanuaryremainedsignificantlybelowaverage(Figure4).Maizecropslargely failed to grow, so there is very little Deyr harvest,compoundingthedifficultyoffoodaccesscausedbytheverypoor remaining household stocks from previous harvests.LowerJubaagropastorallivelihoodzoneinAfmadow,Hagar,and Jamame districts experienced a near failure of Deyr maizeproduction.Householdsalsohavebelowtheover10yearsoldbaseline livestockholdings to sell to fundmarketpurchasesof food.Households intheagropastoralareasofJamamedistrictinLowerJubaregionaremainlycrop-dependent,sotheyhavebeenthemostaffectedbythepoorproductionandhavethefewestotherresourcestorelyupon.ThisareaiscurrentlyclassifiedinCrisis (IPCPhase3).

Camelmilk pricesinLowerJubainregionalreferencemarketsdecreasedby30percentfromDecember2011toDecember2012.Thisindicatesthatcamelmilkisavailableinthesemarketsatahigherlevelthanlastyear.CattlemilkpricesinLowerJubahaveincreasedinDecember2012by42percentcomparedtothesametimelastyear.Thesepricesarealso11percentabovethefive-yearaverage,buttheyhavesignificantlydeclinedcomparedtotheJuneandJulypricesby58and32percent,respectively.ThesetrendsinmilkpricesindicateincreasedcattlemilkproductionandavailabilityonmarketscomparedtoJuneandJuly.

Map 4: Nutrition Outlook February - April, 2013

Figure 4. Lower Juba Rainfed cropped area NDVI



Local quality goat pricesinDecember2012inthethreemainagropastoralmarketsofAfmadow,Jamame,andHagarhadbeendecreasingsinceOctober2012followingseasonaltrends.However,localqualitygoatpricesinDecemberwerestill32higherthanatthesametimelastyearand49percentabovethefive-yearaverage.Inthesemarkets,thelocalqualitygoat to white maize ToThaveremainedrelativelystablethroughout2012,butinDecember2012,theyare131higherthanthesametimein2011and39percentabovethefive-yearaverage.Similarly,thedaily,casual laborwageratetowhitemaizeToTdecreasedfromJulytoDecember2012,butitwashigherthaninDecember2011andthefive-yearaverageby100and14percent,respectively.Thecurrentdebt levelforpoorhouseholdsisestimatedbetweenUSD100and150,adecreasefromtheUSD140to200levelsrecordedfromOctobertoDecember2011.LocallyproducedcerealpricesinLowerJubaagropastoralhaveremainedstablesinceNovember2012andarefollowingtypicalseasonaltrendsdespitethe locallypoorproductionprospectsandsubsequentlybelowaverageharvest. Basedon these factors,coupledwithcurrent insecurityand limitedhumanitarianassistance,poorhouseholds inJamameDistrictwhichisthemainmaizeproducingareainLowerJubaRegionhavesignificantfoodconsumptiongaps,andtheyareinCrisis(IPCPhase3).However,otheragropastoralaeasofthis livelihoodzone,whicharemorelivestockdependent,arecurrentlyStressed(IPCPhase2).

NorepresentativeSMARTnutritionsurveywasconductedin LowerJubaagropastorallivelihoodzonebeweenOctober andDecember 2013. However, SMART assessmentmeasuringmiddle-upper arm circumference(MUAC)inNovemberrecorded14.4percentofchildrenunderfivewithMUACbelow12.5centimenters(cm)and2.4percentbelow11.5cm.TheseratesarecategorizedasLikelyVery Critical.

Assumptions

Inadditiontothenationalassumptionsdescribedabove,thefollowingassumptionshavebeenmadeaboutagropastoralareasinLowerJuba:

• Insecurity is likely to be high in this region between February and Junewith likely clashes betweenGovernmentofSomaliaforcessupportedbyAMISOMandarmedgroupsorganizedaroundsingleclansorcoalitionsofclans.

• Insecuritywilllikelyreducetrademovements,includingtheprofitablesouthernexportrouteforcattleandsmall ruminants intoKenyaand leadto increaseddisplacementwithin theregion, increasing thenumberofIDPs.


Averagetobelowaveragerainfallwilllikelyresultinlimitedwateravailabilityandlesswaterthannecessarytomeetmaizewaterrequirements.Givenlimitedresourcesgoingintotheseason,theareaplantedislikelytobebelowaverage.This,alongwithlackofstockstouseforpaymentorcashforlabor,willreducedemandforagricultural laborduringplantingandweedingduring theApril to JuneGu rains.AspoorhouseholdslackstocksfromtheDeyrharvestorfrompreviousseasons,theywilldependonmarketpurchasesoffood.Tofundthesepurchases,thequantityoflivestocksoldwillincrease,reducingpoorhouseholds’herdsizesthrough distress sales. However, between January andMarch 2013, poor households’ incomewill likelyremainrelativelystableduetothelimitedincomefromlivestockandmilksales.FromApriltoJune2013,theincomeofpoorhouseholdswillbewellbelownormalthoughasusuallyhouseholdswouldhavesomeincomefromlaborrelatedtolandpreparation,planting,andweedingfortheongoingGuseason.

AsaresultofpoorstocksfromownproductionfromtheDeyrseason,decreasedlaborincomesduringtheGu



season,andthetypical,seasonalchangesassociatedwiththeApriltoJuneleanseason,foodconsumptionwilldeclineoverthecourseofFebruarytoJune.Poorhouseholds’accesstomilkwilldecreaseaslivestockbecomelessproductiveduringthedryseason,resultinginnutritionaldeterioration.GreenmaizeandgreencowpeaswerenotavailableastheynormallywouldhavebeeninJanuary,sohouseholdsalreadyhaveverylittleoftheirownproducedfoodtoconsume.Foodconsumptiongapshavelikelyalreadystartedtooccur,andhouseholdsarelikelytolimitconsumptionthroughJune.Increasedcerealcommodityprices,increasingcivilinsecurity,andfurtherassetlossesarepossible.Tradedisruptionsrelatedtoinsecuritymayfurtherreducemarketsupplyandare likelyto leadtodisplacement.Thiscanresult in livelihoodchangeasagropastoralhouseholdsare forced intourbanareas in searchofassistance, security, and laboropportunities.DuringboththedryJanuarytoMarchJilaalseasonandtheApriltoJuneagriculturalleanseason,foodconsumptiongapswillgraduallyincrease,despitesomemilkavailability.Accesstofoodforpoorhouseholdswillfurtherdeteriorate,butitisunlikelytoexceedCrisis(IPCPhase3)thoughthenumberofhouseholdwhowillfacetheincreasingfoodconsumptiongapswilllikelyincrease.

Guban Pastoral Livelihood Zone in the Northwest

Current Situation

Followingsuccessivedryseasonssince late2010,Gubanpastoral livelihoodzonereceivedbelowaverageHays rains inDecember2012.ExeptionsareZeylacandeasternBerberadistricts,no rainswerereceivedinDecember.AsaresultofthebelowaverageHaysrains,pastureconditionsdidslightlyimprove,resultinginslightlyimprovedlivestockbodyconditions.Livestockproductionandmilkavailabilityarestillpoorasaresultofmultiplepoorseasonsanddeclininglivestockholdings.InDecember2012,localqualitygoatpricesinLawyadomarketwere18,24,and6percentaboveDecember2011,thefive-yearaverage,andJuly2012,respectively.Despitetheslightincreaselivestockpricesoverthepastsixmonths,thereareanincreasinglylimitednumberofsaleablelivestockreportedbyassessmentteams.

InDecember2012,theimportedricepricewas11,6,and11percentabovethesametimelastyear,thefive-yearaverage,andJuly2012,respectively.Risingricepricesandadecliningnumberofsaleablelivestockhave resulted in households increasingly purchasing food with credit. Debt levels for poor householdsrangingbetweenUSD170and200,muchhigherthanamoretypicaldebtlevelaroundUSD100orpreviouslyrecordedmaximumsofaroundUSD150.Duetoparallelincreasesincerealsandlivestockprices,thetermsoftradeweremostlystableastheyonlyincreasedfivepercentbetweenDecember2011andDecember2012.Whiletermsoftradehavenotdeterioratedoverthepastyear,thepurchasingpowerofpoorhouseholdsisstillunabletosupportadequatefoodaccessastherearefewlivestocktosell.

InreactiontoNovembertoDecember2012civilinsecurityduetoadisputedlocalgovernmentelectioninNovember2012inZeylacDistrict,theGovernmentofDjiboutihadclosedthebordercrossingatLawyado.Forthepastyear,householdshavebeendependingheavilyonlabormigrationtoDjiboutiasakeysourceofincome.WiththetraditionallabormigrationroutetoDjiboutinowheavilylimited,incomeforthepoorhouseholdsisdeclining.

According to FSNAU and partners representative SMART nutrition survey conducted in November andDecember2012,themalnutritionrateinGubanpastorallivelihoodzonehasreducedfromtheVery CriticaltoCritical levelscomparedtothepreviousJuly2012survey.TheGAMratewas17.3percent(confidenceinterval (CI) 13.5 to 21.9percent), and the SAM ratewas 2.1 percent (CI 1.3 to 6.0 percent). The crudemortalityrate(CMR)andunder-fivemortalityrate(<5MR)are0.11(CI0.03to0.34)per10,000peopleand0.32 (CI0.10 to1.31)per10,000people, respectively.Thesomewhat improvednutritionsituation in thelivelihood zone is likelydue to short-livedmilk availability fromAugust toOctober2012 following camel



birthsandanincreaseinhumanitarianassistance.

PoorhouseholdsinGubanpastorallivelihoodzonemakeupnearly30percentofallhouseholds.Theyareonlymeetingbasicfoodneedsmarginallywithaccelerateddepletionoftheirlivestock,theirkeylivelihoodassets,andhumanitarianassistance.TheyarethereforecurrentlyinCrisis(IPCPhase3).

Assumptions

Inadditiontothenationalassumptionsdescribedabove,forthemostlikelyfoodsecurityoutcomesthroughJune,thefollowingassumptionsforGubanpastorallivelihoodzonehavebeenmade:

• ThelivestockconceptionratewilllikelybelowasaresultoflackofnutrientsandlimitedpastureavailabilityduetobelowaverageDecembertoJanuary Haysrains.

• Increasedinter-clantensioninZeylacdistrictislikelytocontinueandfurtherincidencesofconflictarelikely.

• TheborderclosurebyDjiboutiislikelytoremaineffect,limitingcross-borderlabormigrationandasaresult,decreasingincomefromremittances.

• Householddebtlevelsarelikelytoincreasetopurchasefood,butthebetter-offhouseholdsandtraderswill eventually stop offering additional credit lines to poor households as they are unable to makerepaymentsorenoughpaymentstoreopenlinesofcredit.

• TheApriltoJuneGurainsovertheGolismountainswilllikelygeneratesomelimitedrunoffwatertothecoastalplainsofGubanpastorallivelihoodzone.

• MalnutritionrateswilllikelyincreaseduringtheJilaaldryseasonfollowinganormal,thoughmoresevereseasonalpatternofincreasingduringthedryseason.


Saleablelivestockarelimitedandtheirnumberswillbereducedbyfurtherlivestocksales.DistresslivestocksaleswilloccurtoaccessfoodfromFebruarytoJune2013.However,theoverallincomefromlivestockwillbelowerthanintypicalyearduetothepoorconditionsofthelivestock,hencethenumberoflivestocksoldwillbehigherthannormal.AccesstocashthroughremittanceswilldeclineduetoconflictandclosureoftheborderwithDjiboutiborder,whichwillresultinareductioninlabormigration.ThemostaffectedwouldbethosewhotemporarilymigrateforlaborinDjiboutiduringtheJanuarytoMarchJilaalseason.ConflictbetweenclansrelatedtothedisputedlocalelectionmayalsolimitlaboraccessinDjibouti,possiblycausingsomelabormigrantstoneedtoreturntonorthwesternSomalia,dependingontheirclanaffiliationandtheclanaffiliationofthoseofferinglaboropportunitiesinDjibouti.

Deteriorated livestockbody conditionwill result in decreased local quality goat to cereal termsof tradebetweenFebruaryandJune.Consequently,poorhouseholds’purchasingpowerandaccess tobasic foodpurchaseswillcontinuetodecline.Limitedhumanitarianassistanceandlimitedmilkavailabilitywill likelynegatively affect nutritional status. Themalnutrition rate is expected to increase above what would beexpectedseasonally.

BetweenFebruaryandMarch,poorhouseholdswillremainclassifiedinCrisis(IPCPhase3)evenaccountingforthepresenceofsomehumanitarianassistance.BetweenAprilandJune2013,somerun-offwaterfromGolisMountainsisexpectedtorelievetheareasofmostseverewatershortages,butthiswillnotbesufficient



waterforbothlivestockandhumanconsumption.Duringthistimepoorhouseholdswillengageinnegativecoping strategies such as selling camels. Access to foodwill likely beminimal. Households are likely toconsumeonlyorlessthanfourfoodgroupsofcereals,sugar,oil,andmilk.TheproportionofthepopulationinCrisis(IPCPhase3)willlikelyincreasebetweennowandJune,buttheareaclassificationwillremainatCrisis(IPCPhase3).

IDP settlements

Current Situation

From October to December 2012, FSNAU and partners carried out joint food security and nutritionassessments in ten IDP settlements, seven in the North in Hargeisa, Berbera, Burco, Bossaso, Qardho,Garowe,andGalakayo.TwointheSouthinBanadirRegion(Mogadishu)andBaidoa.StandalonenutritionsurveyswerealsoconductedinIDPsettlementsinLowerJuba(Kismayo,Dobley)andGedo(Dolo).TheUNHighCommissionerforRefugees(UNHCR)estimates1.1to1.36millionIDPsaredisplacedasofJanuary2013.

TheproportionofhouseholdswithpoorfoodconsumptionasdefinedbytheFoodConsumptionScore(FCS)variesfrom34to58percentindifferentregionsoftheNorthwestandfrom51to74percentintheNortheast.Theproportionsof IDPhouseholdswithpoor consumptionwere62and44percent inDhusamarebandBanadir,respectively.Regardlessoffoodconsumptiongroups,themajorityofIDPsliveinsub-optimal,non-permanenthousingsuchastarpaulinconstructedhousesinalloftheassessedsettlementsaroundhalfofIDPhouseholdsintheNorthwestandthecentralregions,66percentintheNortheast,and99percentinBanadir.TheremainingIDPsinthesettlementsliveinstillfragilesheltersmadeofcorrugatedsheetsoroccupyroomsintheabandonedpublicorgovernmentbuildings.Thereisnosignificantdifferenceinthehousingconditionsbetweentheshort-termIDPswhohavebeeninthesettlementslessthanayearandthelonger-termIDPswhohavelivedoverayearinasettlements.

IDPshavepoorassetbaseswithanaverageofonlyoneassettypeperhouseholdsuchasamobilephone,wheelbarrow,ortoolforskilledwork.ThemajorityofIDPhouseholdsreportedhavingonlyoneincomesourceandoneincome-earningmemberperhousehold.Thekeysourcesofincomereportedarecasual,unskilledlabour,pettytrade,andself-employmentactivities.Duetolowlevelofincomeearningopportunities,manyIDPs remain unable to purchase the CMB, despite its declining total cost in nominal terms. The studiesrevealed that largest portion of an IDP household’smonthly budgetwent to food andwater purchases,averagingbetween75and80percentoftheirtotalexpenditures.IDPswithpoorfoodconsumptioninBurco,Qardho,Galkayo,andBanadirregion(Mogadishu)alsohavehighlevelofoutstandingdebtsfrompurchasesoffoodandwater(45-80%oftheMEB).

ThenutritionsituationinmostofthesettlementsassessedisclassifiedasCritical.However,IDPsinDolo,Kismayo,DhusamarebandBossasoareclassifiedintheVery CriticalnutritionsituationlevelwhiletheIDPsinHargeisaintheNorthwest,GaroweintheNortheast,andBaidoaintheSouthareclassifiedasSerious.IDPsinDoloandDobleparticularlyaffectedwithveryhighreportedmorbiditywithover40percentofchildrenreportingsicknessoverthepasttwoweeks.Thereisalsoanelevatedlevelofcrudemortalityof1.27and1.92respectively,deathsper10,000peopleperdaywhichisSeriousbasedonUNICEF2005classification.



Aroundhalf of these IDPs, about 615,000people in various settlements are currently classified to be inCrisisorEmergency (IPCPhases3or4).Sevenoutofthetenassessedsettlements,Berbera,Burco,Bossaso,Qardho,Garowe,Galakayo,andBanadirRegion(Mogadishu)wereclassifiedinEmergency (IPCPhase4)1.However,IDPsinHargeisa,Garowe,andBaidoatownswereclassifiedinCrisis(IPCPhase3).Duetolackofmoreextensivepopulationstatisticsatthesettlementlevel,estimatesoftheexactnumberofIDPsateachphasewerenotpossible. Instead, FSNAUassigned thedominant IPCphase classification for eachof thesettlementsassessedasthiswouldencompassatleast20percentofthepopulation.

Assumptions

Noadditionalassumptionstothenationalassumptionsdescribedaboveweremade.


Withoutasubstantialincreaseinhumanitarianassistance,mostoftheIDPsettlementsinthecountryarelikelytoremaininEmergency(IPCPhase4)fromFebruarytoJune.Duetotheirdependencyonthemarketforfoodpurchases,limitedincomeearningoptions,andpoorassetbase,IDPswillbeunabletoaffordsufficientquanititesoffoodandotherbasicneeds.Thehighacutemalnutritionratesamongtheunder-fivechildren,classifiedasCriticaltoSerious,isunlikelytochangeintheprojectionperiodwithoutsignificantincreasesinmulti-sectoralhumanitarianassistance.

EVENTS THAT MIGHT CHANGE THE OUTLOOK

Table 1: Possible events over the next six months that could change the most-likely scenario.

Area Event Impact on food security outcomes

Agropastoral areas of Lower Juba and Gedo regions

A late start or well below average total rainfall for the April to June Gu rains

Below average April to June Gu rains could result in seriously reduced Gu harvest in July and August. As the crops perform poorly, this will reduce labor opportunities and daily wage rates for activities such as weeding or harvesting. With reduced income from labor, which typically provide around a quarter of annual income, households will increase their livestock sales to purchase food. This would further reduce the herd sizes of poor households. Many households could reach the Emergency (IPC Phase 4) level of food insecurity with little or none of their own production and limited income to purchase food by June or July 2012.

ABOUTSCENARIODEVELOPMENTTo project food security outcomes over a six-month period, FEWS NET develops a set of assumptionsabout likelyevents,theireffects,andtheprobableresponsesofvariousactors.FEWSNETanalyzesthoseassumptionsinthecontextofcurrentconditionsandlocallivelihoodstodevelopscenariosestimatingfoodsecurityoutcomes.Typically,FEWSNETreportsonlythemostlikelyscenario.

1 Due to lack of proper population statistics at settlement level, estimates of the exact number of IDPs in crisis were not possible. Instead FSNAU assigns the dominant IPC phase classification for each of the settlements assessed

Despite improvements, more than one million likely to remain in

Documents

Transcript of Despite improvements, more than one million likely to remain in