Designing projects for success

Tim Banfield

Director

National Audit Office

June 2013

I will cover:

• Initiating Successful Projects;• Common features of projects:

• Strategic importance and politics;• Stakeholders (influencers and the delivery

chain);• Success.

• Optimism and risk.

There are plenty of examples of good project planning and execution………

Few could have envisaged how successful the London 2012 Games would turn out to be. The construction programme was completed on time and within budget, 11 million tickets were sold and our athletes excelled. Crucially, the Games passed off without major transport disruption or security incident. Taken as a whole, the Games were a success by any reasonable measure and it looks as if not all of the Funding Package will be used.

……. and not just capital projects

• Severe timescale and political pressures

• Variety of options tested

• Due diligence• Uncertainties managed

Five factors influencing successful delivery

Ten traits

The delivery cycle

Concept

Planning

Evaluation & sharing

lessons learnt

Execution

Implementation Cycle

Citizen

Lobby Groups

Parliament

Media

InternationalBodies

Third Sector

Local Government

Civil Service

Commercial

POLICY ASPIRATION

SUSTAINABLE BENEFICIAL OUTCOMES

Process Change

Cultural Change

 

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Information – financial and management

Governance – Portfolio & Risk Management

Capacity

Political context

Public Accounts Committee on Mobile Policing

"How did it ever get to be in such a spaghetti-like mess?“

“I cannot quite get why you could not build the experience of the trials into the management of the project”

Census 2011

Learned lessons from the 2001 Census and applied them to good effect:• Risk management;• Testing and piloting;• Stakeholder engagement.

The Norwegian Approach

The Norwegian Concept Programme 

Analysis - initiation freq

Alternative concepts have not been scrutinised 16 64%

Lack of realistic objectives and justification 14

Project not relevant in relation to needs/market 14

Tactical underestimation of costs 10

Perverse incentives – benefits without liability 8

Tactical splitting up and sequencing of project 7

Tactical overestimation of needs and benefits 6

Underestimation of future operational costs 6

Decisions - delivery  

Major predictable surprises 15

Sound advice overlooked by political preferences 11

Lacking transparency affecting public debate 7

Long lasting front end phase with shifting priorities 6

Political horse-trading between competing parties 5

Repeated play-off in political decision process 3

Source: Knut Samset

Stakeholders: common themes

Influencers:• Actively managing expectations had positive consequences; • Failure to engage with all parties who can influence the delivery of your

project causes problems.

The delivery chain:• A failure to work well with the deliverers was a common problem

experienced in less successful projects.• Not having the commercial skills to engage effectively with contractors. • The nature of the relationship with the contractor has a significant bearing

on the successful delivery of the project.

Impact on performance (ranking)

Indicator Time Cost Defects

Mutual objectives 8 7 4

Gain and pain sharing 2 9 8

Trust 10 6 2

No-blame culture 4 3 6

Joint working 1 10 3

Communication 9 1 5

Problem-solving 6 5 1

Risk allocation 3 2 7

Performance measurement 7 4 9

Continuous improvement 4 8 10

Source: International Journal of Project Management, Issue 30, Volume 2, 2012

Strong working relationships deliver better results

Quadrant 3

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-20 -10 10 20 30 40 60 50 100 90 80 70

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Quadrant 4 Quadrant 1

Quadrant 2

7

Percentage cost overrun since approval

Delay (months) since approval3

8

5

Success

2. Outcomes

How will a project be used to deliver these benefits?

Impact Relevance Take -up

3. Outputs

What?

Performance Time Cost Quality

1. Benefits

Why? Identify the value added to society(realisation of policy) Sustainability Satisfies needs Economic effects

CAUSES

PROJECT UNDERTAKEN ON UNREALISTIC BASIS

WEAKNESS IN PLANNING• Inadequate planning time allowed• Incomplete understanding (complexity and uncertainty)• Lack of consultation• Under-developed scope• Poor risk management process• Lack of contingency• Weaknesses in use of data and modelling

BEHAVIOURAL- Inherent optimism: planning fallacy, over-confidence, ignoring past experience-Strategic misrepresentation: e.g. to gain project approval, self-promotion- Internal culture: hiding bad news, ignoring advice

EXTERNAL CONSTRAINTS

- Political and budgetary cycle: scope change, financial pressures- Political pressure: policy and announcements made prior to planning

SYMPTOMS

OUTCOME

CAPABILITY

- Lack of skills/experience - Resource pressure e.g. high turnover

RISK TO VALUE FOR MONEY

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Tim Banfield

Tel: +44 20 7798 7662

Fax: +44 20 7798 7588

E-mail: tim.banfield@nao.gsi.gov.uk

Website: www.nao.org.uk