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Designing Low Carbon Society:
Methodology for Development of Roadmaps toward
Low Carbon Society by Backcasting
Shuichi Ashina(芦名 秀一)
National Institute for Environmental Studies (国立環境研究所)
http://www-iam.nies.go.jp/aim/ http://2050.nies.go.jp/LCS/
「低碳能源社會與經濟」教育訓練(二)
2012年5月30日(星期三)@中華經濟研究院
http://www.lowcarbon-asia.jp/
Self-introduction:
The Asia-Pacific Integrated Model
• AIM is an abbreviation of Asia-Pacific Integrated
Model.
• It is one of Integrated Assessment Models (IAM), and
a large-scale computer simulation model developed
to promote the integrated assessment process in the
Asia-Pacific region
• Collaborated study by Japan, China, India , Korea,
Thailand and Malaysia members.
• The AIM project is started in July 1990, and began an
international collaboration system from 1994.
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1990
1994 1997
2001
2004 2006
2007 2008
2010 2009
AIM ERI(China), IIM(India), MoE
(Indonesia) , Seoul U (Korea)
Japan LCS Project
(FY2004-FY2008)
Japan-UK Joint Project
(FY2006-FY2007)
Asia LCS Project
(FY2009-FY2015)
JST/JICA SATREPS Project
(FY2011-FY2015)
LCS-RNet
(FY2009-)
AIT
Malaysia
COP3
Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam
2050 Low Carbon Society
2011
Training workshop at
COP8, India
AIM project started
Self-introduction: History of Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)
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Model World
Self-introduction: AIM is Model
Impact/Adaptation Model
Emission Model
【Country】
【Global】
【Enduse model】
【Economic model】
【Account model】
【sequential dynamics】
【dynamic optimization】
【Local/City】
Agriculture
Water
Human
health
Simple Climate Model
Other Models
future society
Population Transportation Residential
GHG emissions
temperature
【Global】 【National/Local】
feedback
AIM/Impact
[Policy]
Burden
share Stock-flow
mid-term target
IPCC/WG3
IPCC/WG2
IPCC/integrated scenario
carbon tax
long-term vision
Accounting adaptation
low carbon scenario
Mitigation Target, Climate Policy, Capacity building, ... Real World
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Comprehensive comparison of Top-down
and Bottom-up approach • Top-down approach
Computational General Equilibrium model of macro-economic
relations inside a country and with other countries
Models in this type emphasize economy-wide
• Bottom-up approach
technology-rich description of energy system, options and costs
(partial equilibria)
feature sectoral and technological details
There are a lot of Hybrid models which combines the two approach
through coupling: part of the CGE economy is described by a bottom up
model.
This is just “DICHOTOMY” of the approaches!
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Overview of relationship among approaches
Common Scenario Assumptions
•Economic growth
•Population
•International fuel prices
•Environmental constraints
Bottom-up model
(AIM/Enduse,
ESS, etc)
Top-down model
(AIM/CGE, etc)
Aggregation
and calculation Sector output level,
Energy price
Service demand,
Fuel price
Aggregation
and calculation
Technology and
fuel mix, Energy
demand, cost
Energy efficiency
improvement,
Additional
investment
Source: Based on Xu, Y., Jiang, K. and Masui, T. (2007). “CGE Linkage with AIM/Enduse: Assessing Energy Intensity Reduction Target in
China”, 13th AIM Int’l WS, Tsukuba.
GHG Inventory
Energy balance table Input-Output table
Mainly focused on
Economy-wide
Technology,
Energy
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AIM models for projection of GHG
emissions from Top-down approach AIM/CGE model:
• General Equilibrium model
• Draws the balanced macro economy, based on social
conditions such as population, technology and preference,
countermeasures
• Programming language: GAMS (The General Algebraic
Modeling System)
• Skills required: Macroeconomics (esp. IO analysis),
Mathematics (esp. partial differentiation)
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AIM models for projection of GHG
emissions from Bottom-up approach AIM/Enduse model:
• Partial equilibrium model on energy
• Assess individual technologies under the detail technology selection
framework
• Programming language: GAMS (The General Algebraic Modeling System)
• Skills required: Microeconomics, Mathematics (esp. Linear Optimization
theory), and Energy and System Engineering.
AIM/Energy Snapshot Tool (ESS):
• Snapshot-type tool at a certain point (non-optimization)
• Assess energy balance and GHG emissions among sectors simultaneously
• Programming language: MS Excel (purely spreadsheet-based tool)
• Skills required: Basics of Energy Balance Table
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2020 2050 2000
Long-te
rm ta
rget y
ear
Technology development, socio-economic change projected by historically trend
Forecasting
Back-casting
Normative target world
Reference future world
Service demand change
by changing social behavior, lifestyles
and institutions
Mitigation Technology
development Required Policy intervention and Investment
required intervention policy and measures
Env
iron
ment
al p
ress
ure
Requ
ired
int
erv
ent
ion
3. We need
“Innovation”
to realize visions
2. We need
“Visions”
1.”Target”
is tough 50% reductions
In the world
Designing Low Carbon Society Scenario:
Backcasting Approach
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To Understand Backcasting Approach: How to achieve Low-Carbon Life?
Popularization of
Environment
buildings
Navigation
System
Support for live
Efficiency Improvement
Construction
Skills Design Skills
Communization and Standardization of technical know-how
Tax benefits for aggressive company for LCS Building
Obligation and
regulation
LC-Life
Eco-Labeling
Support for Choice
Financing
Tax benefits,
subsidy,
reimburse
Support for Purchase
Transition to service
Consumption lifestyle
Anytime, Anywhere
Appropriate Applicances
Comfortable and Green
Built Environment
Policy
Policy Policy
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Green buildings
Self-sustained city
Decentralized services
Eco awareness
Effective communication
Dematerialization
Next generation vehicles
Efficient transportation system
Advanced logistics
19
90
20
00
20
20
20
50
20
10
BaU scenario
Intervention
scenario
EE improvement
New energy
Energy saving
Structure change
Life-style
change
Tech. innovation
Urban structure IT-society
Techno-Socio Innovation Study
GHG reduction target (eg. 60-80% reduction by 1990 level)
Evaluate feasibility of
GHG reduction target
Long-term
Scenario
Development
Study
Develop socio-
economic scenario,
evaluate counter-
measures using
econ-techno models GH
G e
mis
sio
n
Middle-term
Target year
Loge-term
Target year
Transportation
system
- 1
1
3
5 Valid
Equity
Suitable
Effective
Reduction
Target study
Advisory board:advice to project
60 Researchers
Propose the direction of long-term global warming policy
[FY2004-2008, Global Environmental Research Program, MOEJ]
Research Project on Japan Low Carbon Society Scenarios toward 2050
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GHGemissionspercapita
Withh
ighdam
age
onEco
nomyan
d
Natu
ralSystem
Developed
Developing
DevelopmentofAsiaLCSScenarios (1)Depic ngnarra vescenariosforLCS (2)Quan fyingfutureLCSvisions (3)Developingrobustroadmapsbybackcas ng
Policy Packages for Asia LCS
SustainabledevelopmentthroughLCS Futuretrendsonsocio-economiccondi ons,energy,resources,regionaldiversity,culture,lifestyle,etc.
Ins tu onaldesignforint’lcoopera on Ins tu onaldesignforinterna onalcoopera on,regionalregime,etc.
Low-CarbonSociety
LCTransporta on • Low-CarbonCitywithLCtransportsystem
• Granddesignforfuturetransport
system Backcas ng
DiversityofAsia
• EncouraginginframingforLCpolicyineachAsiancountries
• Assistanceforinterna onalnego a onswithscien ficbasis
• Approachesforint’lLCSac vityframework • NetworkingamongLCSresearchinAsia
Sustainableresourcemanagement
• Construc ngmaterialaccounts
• Low-Carboniza on
throughimprovementresourceproduc vityandmaterialrecycle
Research Project on Asia Low Carbon Society Scenarios toward 2050
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“Scenario” is “Projection” and/or “Prediction” ?
Terms Description
Projection A projection can be regarded as any description of the future and the
pathway leading to it.
Forecast/
Prediction
When a projection is branded "most likely," it becomes a forecast or
prediction.
Scenario Socioeconomic scenarios in general have been developed to aid
decisionmaking under conditions of great complexity and uncertainty
in which it is not possible to assign levels of probability to any
particular state of the world at a future point in time.
Storyline A narrative description of a scenario that highlights the scenario’s
main characteristics, relationships between key driving forces, and
the dynamics of the scenarios.
Vision Picture of the desirable future (snapshot).
Source: Mainly excerpt from IPCC reports
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Steps towards LCS Scenarios and Roadmaps
Step 1 • Depicting socio-economic visions in 2050
Step 2 • Estimating energy service demands
Step 3 • Exploring innovations for energy demands and energy supplies
Step 4 • Quantifying energy demand and supply to estimate CO2 emissions
Step 5
• Investigating “When and Which options and How much” of each option should be introduced in order to achieve the goal, Low Carbon Society.
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How to depict Socio-economic visions in 2050?
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Step 1: Depicting Socio-economic Visions in 2050:
Two different but likely future societies
Vision A “Doraemon” Vision B “Satsuki and Mei”
Vivid, Technology-driven Slow, Natural-oriented
Urban/Personal Decentralized/Community
Technology breakthrough
Centralized production
/recycle
Self-sufficient
Produce locally, consume
locally
Comfortable and Convenient Social and Cultural Values
2%/yr GDP per capita growth 1%/yr GDP per capita growth
Akemi
Imagawa
Doraemon is a Japanese comic series created by Fujiko F. Fujio. The series is about a robotic cat named Doraemon, who travels back in time from the 22nd century. He has a pocket, which connects to the fourth dimension and acts like a wormhole.
Satsuki and Mei’s House reproduced in the 2005 World Expo. Satsuki and Mei are daughters in the film "My Neighbor Totoro". They lived an old house in rural Japan, near which many curious and magical creatures inhabited.
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Key concepts of two societies (1/2) Keywords Vision A Vision B
Mindset of people
Goal of life •Social success •Social contribution
Residence •Urban orientation •Rural orientation
Family •Self-dependent •Cohabitation
Acceptance of advanced
technology
•Positive •Prudent
Population
Birth rate •Downslide •Recover
Immigration of foreign
workers
•Positively accepted •Status quo
Emigration •Increase •Status quo
Land-use and cities
Migration •Centralization in large cities •Decentralization
Urban area •Concentration in city center
•Intensive land-use in urban area
•Population decrease
•Maintain minimum city function
Country-side •Significant population decrease
•Advent of new businesses for efficient
use of land space
•Gradual population decrease
•Local town development by local
communities & citizens
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Key concepts of two societies (2/2) Keywords Vision A Vision B
Life and household
Work •Increase in “Professionals”
•High-income and over-worked
•Work sharing
•Working time reduction & equalization
Housework •Housekeeping robots & Services •Cooperation with family & neighbors
Free time •Paid – for activity
•Improving carrier
•Skill development
•With family
•Hobby
•Social activity (i.e. Volunteer activity)
Housing •Multi-dwellings •Detached houses
Consumption •Rapid replacement cycle of
commodities
•Long lifetime cycle of commodities
(Mottainai)
Economy
Growth rate •Per capita GDP growth rate: 2% •Per capita GDP growth rate: 1%
Technological development •High •Not as high as vision A
Industry
Market •Deregulation •Adequate regulated rules apply
Primary Industry •Declining GDP share
•Dependent on import products
•Recovery of GDP share
•Revival of public interest in agriculture
and forestry
Secondary Industry •Increasing add value
•Shifting production sites to overseas
•Declining GDP share
•High-mix low-volume production with local
brand
Tertiary Industry •Increase in GDP share
•Improvement of productivity
•Gradual increase in GDP share
•Penetration of social activity
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SLCS SSTAG
General
Descriptio
n
Governance in each country has improved
substantially and so as the education level.
Foreign investments are concentrated to Asia.
Dialogues between government and public have been
widely accepted in many countries. As a result,
Asian countries attain high economic growth based
on many technical innovations invented in the
regions.
Many Asian countries have failed to restructure the
inefficient state owned company. Governance and
economic levels stay relatively lower. Those investment
conditions of Asian countries are perceived as high
risk from foreign countries and foreign investments are
not expand as expected. Each countries have pursue
short-term profit and, as a result, technical
improvement and economic growth rate have stayed
relatively low
Economy ・Annual growth rate: 4.4%/year ・Annual growth rate: 3.4%
Population ・Total Population: 4.6 billion (2050) ・Total Population: 4.6 billion (2050)
Education ・Success in educational policy (Average
educational year:4-12 years (2005)→11-13 years
(2050))
・Limited success in educational policy(Average
educational year:4-12 years (2005)→11-13 years
(2050))
Government ・Greatly improvement ・Limited improvement
Internatio
nal
Cooperatio
n
・Asian cooperation in both economic and social
aspects (Globalization)
・Less cooperative activities among the Asian
countries (Nationalization)
Innovation ・High technology improvement rate ・Moderate technology improvement rate
Transport ・High demand based on high economic growth ・Relatively lower transportation demand
Urban ・Intensive infrastructure development in the
urban areas and slums are decreasing
・Infrastructure development could not catch up the
increase in population in the urban area
Two Visions for Asia LCS • Two scenario concept was developed. The key parameters that differentiate the two
scenarios include; Education, Governance, and International relationship
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For Step 2: Estimating energy service demands
Quantifying service demands by models
Industry
Domestic and
Commercial
Transportation
Energy supply
Social system
Cross-sectional
1. Changes in industrial structure and technological development on energy
consumption as well as productivity
2. Changes in building distribution by climatic zone
3. Changes of the share of detached and multi-dwelling houses
4. Diffusion rate of insulated detached and multi-dwelling houses
5. Lifetime changes of the dwellings
6. Lifestyle changes on household consumption and allocation of the time
7. Changes in population distribution and local characteristics
8. Changes in social environment and human activities
9. Changes in selectivity of the mode of passenger transportation by area
10. Changes industrial structure
11. Dematerialization
12. Changes in producing /consuming area
13. Changes in selectivity of the mode of transportation by distance
14. Function of load management and uncertainties of both energy supply and demand
15. Combination of small consumer and small energy sources + Electricity/Hydrogen
16. Feasibility of local production for local consumption
17. Relationship between economic activities and stock/flow of the materials
18. Amount of waste derived from the stock
19. Effectiveness of recycling and its impacts
20. Ensuring consistency among the sectors in terms of energy demand
21. Impacts of future technological choices on social energy efficiency
22. Ensuring economical consistency of LCSs
i) Industrial structure
ii) Dwellings
iii) Lifestyle
iv) Passenger transportation
v) Freight transportation
vi) Energy Supply (Electricity/Renewables/Hydrogen etc)
vii) Material stock/flow
viii) Consistency of energy balance
ix) Economic consistency
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Developed snapshot and transition models
Topics to be asked LCS Models
i) Industrial structure
ii) Dwellings
iii) Lifestyle
iv) Passenger transportation
v) Freight transportation
vi) Energy supply
vii) Material stock/flow
viii) Consistency of energy balance
ix) Economic consistency
1. Inter-sector and Macro Economic Model
2. Building Dynamics Model
3. Household Production and Lifestyle
Model
4. Passenger Transportation Demand Model
5. Freight Transportation Demand Model
6. Energy Supply Model
7. Material Stock and Flow Model
8. Energy Snapshot Tool
(1.Inter-sector and macro Economic Model)
+
0. Population and Household Model
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• describing LCS in a certain future, concretely, quantitatively, and consistently with physical, economical, technological laws.
Snapshot
models
• focuses on the dynamics and trend transition of the society, economic system, and the technological system.
Transition
models
• Representing inter-temporal optimal strategy on introduction of new technologies and economic activity change in order to achieve the future targets.
Backcast
model
Certain year
(e.g. 2050)
Over the years
(e.g. 2000-2050)
Time frame
Environmental Option Database (EDB) Stores information of activities which accompany or reduce GHGs emission.
Overview of Modeling Activities for Japan LCS Study
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Linkage of Models for LCS Scenario Design
Other Teams Global Model
(AIM/CGE[Global])
Extended Snapshot Tool
(ExSS) Check and
analyze quantitative
consistency of future societies
Backcasting Model
(BCM)
Design roadmaps
toward future
visions
AIM/CGE[country]
One regional multi-
sectoral CGE model
Element models
•Econometric type macro-
economy model (EME)
•Population and household
model (PHM)
•House and building
dynamics model (BDM)
•Traffic demand model
(TDM)
•Energy supply model
(ESM)
•Material stock dynamics
model (MSFM)
•Household production and
lifestyle model (HPLM)
•AIM/enduse[air]
Supply transient and dynamic parameters based
on more physically realistic mechanisms
Supply social,
physical
parameters
based on more
physically
realistic
mechanisms
Supply target year’s
social/ economic/
energy vision
quantitatively
Supply values of parameters based on
more physically realistic mechanisms
Check and verify the future
visions and transient paths
from the points of economic
reality
12/05/30 23
Population and Household Model • A cohort component model for population, a household headship rate
model for household types, with spatial resolution of provinces, land-
use types and climate zones and five family types
• Analyzing effects of depopulation and changes in family composition
on the future population projection.
Nation’s and Province-wise:
Base year’s population
Expected life table
Expected fertility rate
Expected migration rate
Information on land-use types and climatic zones by province-wise resolution
Input Nation’s and Province-wise:
Future population by age and sex
Number of households by family type
Population and Households by climatic zone and land-use classification
Output
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Example of Results:
Demographic composition in Japan
Female (103) Male (103)
Age Age
Vision A
Male
Male
Female
Female
4,000 0 4,000 0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
Female(103) Male (103)
4,000 0 4,000
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
In 2000
Vision B
>85 >85
In 2050
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Building Dynamics Model • A cohort model with a spatial resolution of climate zones,
four heat insulation levels, four residential building types,
and six commercial building types.
Dwelling stock in the base year
Residual ratio
Number of households
Regional/Building type distribution
of new dwellings
Retrofit of existing dwelling stock
Average floor space of new
dwellings
Input
Number and the floor
space of future dwelling
stock by
Region
Building type
Construction period
Output
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Projection of residential building stock by insulation
level
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2003 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 2048
Mill
ion
hou
ses
1999 standard
1992 standard
1980 standard
Without insulation
1999 standard
1992 standard
1980 standard
Without insulation
Projection
based on
present
policy
Projection
based on
enhanced
policy
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Passenger Transportation Demand Model • Simulates transportation demand associated with changes in population
distribution, social environment, personal activity patterns, modal share,
and average trip distance.
• Based on the transportation model developed by Japan’s Ministry of
Land Infrastructure and Transport (MLIT).
License holding ratio
Trip generation coefficient
Modal share
Average trip distance
Net total conversion ratio
Input Net transportation demand
Total passenger
transportation demand
Output
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Passenger Transportation Demand Model:
Application to Japan
Inter-region transportation demand by
mode (mil. person-km)
Indices Example of element
Personal attribute Several groups depending on age, sex, employment, etc.
Day Weekday, holiday
Land area Urban, mountainous, agricultural, etc.
Mode Car, bus, railway, aviation, maritime, walking & bicycling, etc.
Objective Work, school, return, business, private & shopping, etc.
Simulation time Every 5 years between 2000 and 2050
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Buses Aviation Pass.cars Maritime Railways Walk&Bike
Total transportation demand by mode of
transportation (mil. person-km)
Bus Aviation Pass.car Maritime Railway Walking & Bicycling
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Buses Aviation Pass.Cars Maritime Railways
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Industrial Structure Change in 2050, Japan
by Inter-sector and Macro Economic Model
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Ag
ricultu
re
Fo
rest
ry
Fis
hin
g
Co
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inin
g
Cru
de
oil
& N
G m
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Oth
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Fo
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& b
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Te
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Pu
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& p
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Pu
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Ch
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Ch
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Co
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2000 2050 A 2050 B
12/05/30 30
year unit 2000 2050
model A B
Population Mil. 127 94 (74%) 100 (79%)
Population and Household model
Household Mil. 47 43 (92%) 42 (90%)
Average number of person per household
2.7 2.2 2.4
GDP Tril.JPY 519 1,080 (208%) 701 (135%)
Inter-sector and Macro Economic Model
Share of production
primary % 2% 1% 2%
secondary % 28% 18% 20%
tertiary % 71% 80% 79%
Office floor space Mil.m2 1654 1,934 (117%) 1,718 (104%) Building dynamics Model & Inter-sector and Macro Economic Model
Travel Passenger volume bill. p・
km 1,297 1045 (81%) 963 (74%)
Transportation demand model & Inter-sector and Macro Economic Model
Private car % 53% 32% 51%
Public transport % 34% 52% 38%
Walk/bycycle % 7% 7% 8%
Freight transport volume bill. t・
km 570 608 (107%) 490 (86%)
Industrial production index 100 126 (126%) 90 (90%)
Inter-sector and Macro Economic Model
Steel production Mil.t 107 67 (63%) 58 (54%)
Etylen production Mil.t 8 5 (60%) 3 (40%)
Cement production Mil.t 82 51 (62%) 47 (57%)
Paper production Mil.t 32 18 (57%) 26 (81%)
Quantification of Vision A and B
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Step 3: Exploring innovations for energy demands and energy supplies
List of Technologies for LCS
Sector Technology
Residential &
Commercial
Efficient air conditioner, Efficient electric water heater, Efficient gas/oil water heater,
Solar water heater, Efficient gas cooking appliances, Efficient electric cooling
appliances, Efficient lights, Efficient visual display, Efficient refrigerator, Efficient
cool/hot carrier system, Fuel cell cogeneration, Photovoltaic, Building energy
management system (BEMS), Efficient insulation, Eco-life navigation, Electric
newspaper/magazine etc.
Transportation
Efficient reciprocating engine vehicle, Hybrid engine vehicle, Bio-alcohol vehicle,
Electric vehicle, Plug-in hybrid vehicle, Natural gas vehicle, Fuel cell vehicle,
Weight reduction of vehicle, Friction and drag reduction in vehicle, Efficient railway,
Efficient ship, Efficient airplane, Intelligent traffic system (ITS), Real-time and
security traffic system, Supply-chain management, Virtual communication system
etc.
Industrial
Efficient technologies for boiler, industrial furnace, Independent Power Plant (IPP),
coke oven, and other innovations like Eco-cement, Fluidized catalytic cracking of
naphtha, Methane coupling, and Gasification of black liquid.
Energy
Transformation
Efficient coal-fired generation (IGCC, A-PFBC, Co-combustion with biomass etc),
Efficient gas-fired generation, Efficient biomass-fired generation, Wind generation
(On-shore, Off-shore), Nuclear power generation, Hydro power generation, By-
product hydrogen, Natural gas reforming hydrogen production, Biomass reforming
hydrogen production, Electrolysis hydrogen production, Hydrogen station,
Hydrogen pipeline, Hydrogen tanker, CCS (Carbon Capture and Storage), etc.
Total 600 types of technologies are included.
12/05/30 32
Projected energy efficiency improvement:
Air-conditioners for cooling and heating
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055
CO
P (
Coe
ffic
ien
t of
pe
rfo
rman
ce)
Best
Average
Worst
Historical AIST
MOE
METI METI
Energy efficiency improvement has been encouraged by Top Runner Program.
12/05/30 33
Projected Energy Efficiency Improvement:
LED Lighting
incandescent lamp
Conventional fluorescent
Hf Inverter fluorescent
Historical trend
Japan LED Association
DOE SSL Project
METI 2005
0
50
100
150
200
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055
Lu
min
ou
s e
ffic
acy
(lm
/W)
12/05/30 34
UK, February 2005
“40% House”
60% reductions
Japan, June 2005
Guidance for Self-sustained
Residential, 50% reductions
12/05/30 35
Combination of Technologies:
Example of LCS house in 2050
12/05/30 36
Step 4: Quantifying energy demand and supply to estimate CO2 emissions
Energy demands for achieving 70% reduction of CO2 emissions
Seconday Energy Demands (Mtoe)
IndustrialResidential
Commercial
Trans. Prv.
Trans. Frg.
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
2000(Actual)
2050(Scenario A)
2050(Scenario B)
Industrial Residential Commercial Trans. Prv. Trans. Frg.
Decrease of
energy demand
Trans.Prv.: Transportation (Private), Trans.Frg.: Transportation (Freight)
40-45% energy demand
reduces by structural
change of demand,
and efficiency improvement
Possible energy demands reductions for each sector:
Industry:structural change and introduction of saving energy tech. 20-40%
Passenger Transport :land use, saving energy, carbon-intensity change 80%
Freight Transport :efficient transportation system, energy efficient 60-70%
Residential: high-insulated and energy-saving houses 50%
Commercial: high-insulated building and energy saving devices 40%
12/05/30 37
• Calculates the energy balance table and the CO2 emission table
immediately with keeping consistency among sectors.
• Suitable for the communication among stakeholders to design LCS
• Can be used as a simple assessment tool of output from various models
Energy Snapshot Tool (ESS)
Service demand
Share of energy supply
Energy efficiency
Energy consumption in base
year
Assumed target year’s
condition of demand, share,
efficiency
Input
Energy balance table in
target year
CO2 emissions both in base
year and target year
Changes in carbon/energy
intensity from base year
Output
12/05/30 38
Changes in energy demands in the residential
sector
17
10
23
9
3 43 4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2000 2050A 2050B
En
erg
y d
em
an
ds (
Mto
e)
Change of numbers of
householdsIncrease of service
demand per householdDecrease of service
demand per household
Improvement of energy
efficiencyElectricity
H2
Solar
Biomass
Gas
Oil
Energy demands in
2000
12/05/30 39
Changes in composition of energy supply
Coal Oil Gas
Biomass
Nuclear
Solar and Wind
100 200 300 400 500 600
2000(Actural)
2050(Scenario A)
2050(Scenario B)
Primary Energy Consumption (Mtoe)
Coal Oil Gas Biomass Nuclear Hydro Solar and Wind
12/05/30 40
70
%re
du
ctio
n
6
21
90
36
77
61
24
10
13
38
97
28
17
41
36
CCS
Carbon CaptureStorage
Change of activity
19
90
CO
2 E
mis
sio
n
20
00
CO
2 E
mis
sio
n
20
50
CO
2 E
mis
sio
n
Change of activity
Imp
rove
men
t o
f ca
rbo
nin
ten
sity
o
f en
ergy
su
pp
ly
Imp
rove
men
t o
f ca
rbo
nin
ten
sity
o
f en
d-u
se
Imp
rove
men
t o
f en
ergy
inte
nsi
ty
of
end
-use
Red
uct
ion
o
f d
eman
d
Ener
gy d
eman
dse
cto
rEn
ergy
su
pp
ly s
ecto
r
Ind
ust
ryTr
ansp
ort
atio
nR
esid
enti
al &
co
mm
erci
alEn
ergy
su
pp
ly
Reduction of service demand
Improvement ofenergy intensity
Improvement ofcarbon intensity
Reduction of service demand
Reduction of service demand
Improvement ofenergy intensity
Improvement ofenergy intensity
Improvement ofcarbon intensity
Improvement ofcarbon intensity
Improvement ofcarbon intensity
・High economic growth, Increase of service demand per household, Increase of office floor (increase)
・Servicizing of industry, Decline in number of households, Increase of public transportation (decrease)
・Fuel switch from coal and oil to natural gas
・Insulation・Energy use management (HEMS/BEMS)
・Efficient heat pump air-conditioner, Efficient water heater, Efficient lighting equipment
・Development and widespread use of fuel cell・All-electric house・Photovoltaic
・Advanced land use / Aggregation of urban function・Modal shift to public transportation service
・Widespread use of motor-driven vehicle such aselectric vehicle and fuel-cell electric vehicle
・High efficiency freight vehicle・Improvement of energy efficiency (train/ship/airplane)
・Power generation without CO2 emission・Hydrogen production without CO2 emission
・Fuel mix change to low carbon energy sources such as natural gas, nuclear energy, and renewable energy
・Effective use of night power / Electricity storage・Hydrogen (derived from renewable energy) supply
・Farm products produced and consumed in season
GHG 70% reduction in 2050 Scenario A: Vivid Techno-driven Society
12/05/30 41
21
24
63
82
40
24
13
14
16
35
23
34
40
5
21
4
24
13
14
16
35
23
34
40
5
21
4
Imp
rove
men
t o
f ca
rbo
nin
ten
sity
o
f en
ergy
su
pp
ly
Imp
rove
men
t o
f ca
rbo
nin
ten
sity
o
f en
d-u
se
Imp
rove
men
t o
f en
ergy
inte
nsi
ty
of
end
-use
Ener
gy d
eman
dse
cto
rEn
ergy
su
pp
ly s
ecto
r70
%re
du
ctio
n
19
90
CO
2 E
mis
sio
n
20
00
CO
2 E
mis
sio
n
20
50
CO
2 E
mis
sio
n
Change of activity
Ind
ust
ryTr
ansp
ort
atio
nR
esid
enti
al &
co
mm
erci
alEn
ergy
su
pp
ly
Reduction of service demand
Improvement ofenergy intensity
Improvement ofcarbon intensity
Reduction of service demand
Improvement ofenergy intensity
Improvement ofcarbon intensity
Reduction of service demand
Improvement ofenergy intensity
Improvement ofcarbon intensity
Improvement ofcarbon intensity
Change of activity
・Significant improvement in energy efficiency of production equipment
・Fuel switch from coal and oil to natural gas
・Insulation・Energy use management (HEMS/BEMS)
・Efficient heat pump air-conditioner, Efficient water heater, Efficient lighting equipment
・Expanding biomass energy use in home・Diffusion of solar water heating and photovoltaic on the roof
・Shortening trip distances for commuting through intensive land use
・Infrastructure for pedestrians and bicycle riders(sidewalk, bikeway, cycle parking)
・Widespread use of hybrid vehicle・Expanding biofuels・Improvement of energy efficiency (train/ship/airplane)
・Expanding share of both advanced gas combined cycle and biomass generation
・Decrease of electricity demand
・High economic growth, Increase of service demand per household, Increase of office floor (increase)
・Slowing of final demand by breaking away from physical affluence mind-set, Reduction of war material production, Servicizing of industry, Decline in number of households, Increase of public transportation (decrease)
・Promoting seasonal local food
GHG 70% reduction in 2050 Scenario B: Slow Nature-oriented Society
12/05/30 42
Step 5: Investigating “When and Which options and How much”
of each option should be introduced in order to achieve the goal.
• This stage has three components:
1.Design of policy roadmaps toward the Low Carbon Society
2.Feasibility analysis of the roadmaps considering uncertainties involved in
element policies
3.Analysis of robustness of the roadmap caused by societal, economical
and institutional uncertainties and acceptability
Base year Target year
LCS
Non-LCS Option
Option Option
Option
Evaluation by backcast model
CO
2 e
mis
sio
ns
When, which option, and how much to install?
70
%re
du
ctio
n
6
21
90
36
77
61
24
10
13
38
97
28
17
41
36
CCS
Carbon CaptureStorage
Change of activity
19
90
CO
2 E
mis
sio
n
20
00
CO
2 E
mis
sio
n
20
50
CO
2 E
mis
sio
n
Change of activity
Imp
rove
men
t o
f ca
rbo
nin
ten
sity
o
f en
ergy
su
pp
ly
Imp
rove
men
t o
f ca
rbo
nin
ten
sity
o
f en
d-u
se
Imp
rove
men
t o
f en
ergy
inte
nsi
ty
of
end
-use
Red
uct
ion
o
f d
eman
d
Ener
gy d
eman
dse
cto
rEn
ergy
su
pp
ly s
ecto
r
Ind
ust
ryTr
ansp
ort
atio
nR
esid
enti
al &
co
mm
erci
alEn
ergy
su
pp
ly
Reduction of service demand
Improvement ofenergy intensity
Improvement ofcarbon intensity
Reduction of service demand
Reduction of service demand
Improvement ofenergy intensity
Improvement ofenergy intensity
Improvement ofcarbon intensity
Improvement ofcarbon intensity
Improvement ofcarbon intensity
・High economic growth, Increase of service demand per household, Increase of office floor (increase)
・Servicizing of industry, Decline in number of households, Increase of public transportation (decrease)
・Fuel switch from coal and oil to natural gas
・Insulation・Energy use management (HEMS/BEMS)
・Efficient heat pump air-conditioner, Efficient water heater, Efficient lighting equipment
・Development and widespread use of fuel cell・All-electric house・Photovoltaic
・Advanced land use / Aggregation of urban function・Modal shift to public transportation service
・Widespread use of motor-driven vehicle such aselectric vehicle and fuel-cell electric vehicle
・High efficiency freight vehicle・Improvement of energy efficiency (train/ship/airplane)
・Power generation without CO2 emission・Hydrogen production without CO2 emission
・Fuel mix change to low carbon energy sources such as natural gas, nuclear energy, and renewable energy
・Effective use of night power / Electricity storage・Hydrogen (derived from renewable energy) supply
・Farm products produced and consumed in season
Vision A Vision B
Vivid, Technology-driven Slow, Natural-oriented
Urban/Personal Decentralized/Community
Technology breakthroughCentralized production /recycle
Self-sufficientProduce locally, consume locally
Comfortable and Convenient Social and Cultural Values
2%/yr GDP per capita growth 1%/yr GDP per capita growth
Akemi Imagawa
12/05/30 43
How to depict LCS roadmaps? 7
0%
red
uct
ion
6
21
90
36
77
61
24
10
13
38
97
28
17
41
36
CCS
Carbon CaptureStorage
Change of activity
19
90
CO
2 E
mis
sio
n
20
00
CO
2 E
mis
sio
n
20
50
CO
2 E
mis
sio
n
Change of activity
Imp
rove
men
t o
f ca
rbo
nin
ten
sity
o
f en
ergy
su
pp
ly
Imp
rove
men
t o
f ca
rbo
nin
ten
sity
o
f en
d-u
se
Imp
rove
men
t o
f en
ergy
inte
nsi
ty
of
end
-use
Red
uct
ion
o
f d
eman
d
Ener
gy d
eman
dse
cto
rEn
ergy
su
pp
ly s
ecto
r
Ind
ust
ryTr
ansp
ort
atio
nR
esid
enti
al &
co
mm
erci
alEn
ergy
su
pp
ly
Reduction of service demand
Improvement ofenergy intensity
Improvement ofcarbon intensity
Reduction of service demand
Reduction of service demand
Improvement ofenergy intensity
Improvement ofenergy intensity
Improvement ofcarbon intensity
Improvement ofcarbon intensity
Improvement ofcarbon intensity
・High economic growth, Increase of service demand per household, Increase of office floor (increase)
・Servicizing of industry, Decline in number of households, Increase of public transportation (decrease)
・Fuel switch from coal and oil to natural gas
・Insulation・Energy use management (HEMS/BEMS)
・Efficient heat pump air-conditioner, Efficient water heater, Efficient lighting equipment
・Development and widespread use of fuel cell・All-electric house・Photovoltaic
・Advanced land use / Aggregation of urban function・Modal shift to public transportation service
・Widespread use of motor-driven vehicle such aselectric vehicle and fuel-cell electric vehicle
・High efficiency freight vehicle・Improvement of energy efficiency (train/ship/airplane)
・Power generation without CO2 emission・Hydrogen production without CO2 emission
・Fuel mix change to low carbon energy sources such as natural gas, nuclear energy, and renewable energy
・Effective use of night power / Electricity storage・Hydrogen (derived from renewable energy) supply
・Farm products produced and consumed in season
Target Vision in 2050 Backcast Model
Roadmaps Narrative Roadmaps
12/05/30 44
Constraints Analysis •Constraints Analysis is to identify the gap between current situation and visions
described in “Future objective”
•options can be defined as countermeasures to overcome the constraints
•Various types of constraints should be taken into account including;
Initiation constraints
Dissemination speed constraints (Cost, amenity, and efficiency)
Upper limit constraints (Physical, Social, and Technological )
Today Low
Carbon
Society
Technical constraints
Economical constraints
Social constraints
Informational constraints
Current
Situation
Future
Objectives
12/05/30 45
Identification of necessary actions
Diffusion of green
design building
Certification & registration
of labeling
Incentives to the higher
performance building
Organizing training
classes and events
Establishment of
simplified evaluation
method
dissemination of
diagnosis practitioners
Lack in information of environmental
performance of the building
Relatively high cost compared
to general building
Lack in knowledge of regional
specific climatic conditions
Too complicated
calculation required
Lack in personnel
who can implement
the calculation
Indirect options
Direct options
Barrier breaking
Step by step strategies
12/05/30 46
1. Comfortable and Green Built Environment
Efficiently use of sunlight and energy efficient built
environment design. Intelligent buildings.
2. Anytime, Anywhere Appropriate Appliances
Use of Top-runner and Appropriate appliances.
Initial cost reduction by rent and release system
resulting in improved availability.
3. Promoting Seasonal Local Food
Supply of seasonal and safe low-carbon local
foods for local cuisine
4. Sustainable Building Materials Using local and
renewable buildings materials and products.
5. Environmentally Enlightened Business and
Industry Businesses aiming at creating and
operating in low carbon market. Supplying low
carbon and high value-added goods and services
through energy efficient production systems.
12. Low-Carbon Society Leadership Human resource
development for building “Low-Carbon Society” and
recognizing extraordinary contributions.
6. Swift and Smooth Logistics
Networking seamless logistics systems with
supply chain management, using both
transportation and ICT infrastructure
7. Pedestrian Friendly City Design
City design requiring short trips and pedestrian (and
bicycle) friendly transport, augmented by efficient
public transport
8. Low-Carbon Electricity Supplying low carbon
electricity by large-scale renewables, nuclear power
and CCS-equipped fossil (and biomass) fired plants
9. Local Renewable Resources for Local Demand
Enhancing local renewables use, such as solar, wind,
biomass and others.
10. Next Generation Fuels Development of carbon
free hydrogen- and/or biomass-based energy supply
system with required infrastructure
11. Labeling to Encourage Smart and Rational Choices
Visualizing of energy use and CO2 costs information
for smart choices of low carbon goods and service by
consumers, and public acknowledgement of such
consumers
Residential/commercial sector actions
Industrial sector actions
Transportation sector actions
Cross-sector actions
Energy supply sector actions
Dozen Action towards Japan LCS 12/05/30 47
• Investigating “When and Which options and How much” of
each option (countermeasures and policies) should be
introduced in order to achieve the goal with keeping
consistency of energy/economy.
Backcast Model: Overview
Future target vision
Social/Economical conditions
Set of options
And, each options’
Sequential order
Elapsed time
Kick-off period
Input
Feasibility of the target
Roadmaps
CO2/Cost trajectories
Output
12/05/30 48
Role of Backcasting Model: Creating Consistent Roadmap
• These roadmaps (usually) focuses one technology/segment in a society.
• In order to find “comprehensive” roadmaps towards LCS, we need to combine the information appropriately.
Green IT Energy efficient lighting
Fuel Cell
Vehicles
Fuel
cells
Nuclear power
Photovoltaic
s
12/05/30 49
How to reach the Japan LCS?
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
CO
2em
issi
on
s [M
tC]
Action 10 Action 9
Action 8 Action 7
Action 6 Action 5
Action 3 Action 2
Action 1 CO2 emissions
Scenario A
CO2 wedges
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Ad
dit
ion
al in
vest
men
t [T
ril.
JPY
]
Ene: Fuel savingEne: Additional fixed investmentTrp: Fuel savingTrp: Additional fixed investmentInd: Fuel savingInd: Additional fixed investmentRes: Fuel savingRes: Additional fixed investmentTotal
Scenario A
Investment
Residential and commertial sector
Introduction of simplified methods for assessing the
performance of buildings
Spread technologies of insulated houses and buildings
Spread insulated houses and buildlings
Introduce a system for labeling houses and buildings
Revice the top-runner standards
Spread the use of energy efficient household appliances
Spread the use of energy efficient office appliances
Introduce solar water heating appliances
Agriculture
Introducing labeling of farm products
Increase consumer awareness of low-carbon farm products
Encourage the consumption of seasonal foods
Spread energy efficient devices in agriculture
Industry
Introduce a CO2 emission disclosure system by each
company and office
Establish CO2 emission disclosure system on the entire
industrySpread energy efficient devices in industry
Fuel shift to gas in industry
Promote electrification in industry
Spread steel furnaces installed with CCS
Passenger transportation
Change the city structure by revising land use
Introduce a system for drawing up intensive land use and
transport plans together with citizens
Promote the concentration of houses, etc. in the center of
citiesCreate a system of preferential treatment for low-carbon
vehicles
Spread energy efficient automobiles
Spread biomass energy use
Spread energy efficient railways
Spread energy efficient vessels
Spread energy efficient airplanes
Spread energy efficient light automobiles
Conduct technological demonstrations near existing
hydrogen supply stations
Investigate plans for positioning hydrogen supply stations
Expand research and development of fuel cells
Introduce fuel cell vehicles
Freight transportation
Revise the top-runner standards
Spread energy efficient trucks
Promote a modal shift in logistics
Spread biomass fuel
Energy supply sector
Introduce energy efficient thermal power plants
Promote the development of CCS technologies and safety
assessment
Establish safe and efficient CCS technologies
Spread thermal power plants equipped with CCS
Promote lower costs of introducing renewables
Raise the exercise price of renewables and construct a
warranty system with a certain guarantee period
Increase solar and wind power generation
Colors in the figure: red: measure, green: policy
Width of the lines: Bars denote periods for actively spreading the measure or for spreading the policy nationwide. Arrows denote periods for
maintaining the ratio of spread of the measure or the period for continuing the policy. Diamonds are the timing for drawing up and enforcing
the policy.
2040 20502010 2020 2030
Gantt chart
12/05/30 50
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns p
er
ca
pita
Time
Developed
Countries
High Energy
Locked-in Type
Development
With High
Damage on
Economy and
Natural System
Developing
Countries
Leapfrog
Development
Modeling Sustainable Low-Carbon Asia
“Asian Low-Carbon Society Scenario Development Study” FY2009-2013,
funded by Global Environmental Research Program, MOEJ
LCS Scenario in Asia
12/05/30 51
Features and Challenges towards Low Carbon Asia
In order to attain the low carbon world by 2050, it is important to
develop middle-long term scenarios toward low carbon Asia and to
assess various policy options in this area.
Huge economic activity: Around
30% of global primary energy is
consumed in Asia
Developing countries: Future GHG
emissions will drastically increase.
Other issues such as MDGs: Each
country has many important issues
to be solved –poverty, pollution...
Win-win strategy: We need
strategies to solve both climate
change and other issues in Asia.
Issues to overcome: Biomass is
related to energy security and food
security.
Diverse Asia: Each country is
different – natural resource, culture,
industry, lifestyle.... Globalization: Activities in Asia are
liked to the global activities. Features of Asia
Masui, T. (2009). Introduction of Advancement of Low-Carbon Society Scenario Studies in Asian Countries, Japan Low-Carbon Society
Scenarios toward 2050 Project Symposium, 12 Feb, 2009 at Tokyo.
12/05/30 52
Methodology for designing Asia Low Carbon Society Scenario:
Multi Scale Approach
Three different scales but interactive approaches are necessary for
designing LCS scenarios
Global and Pan-Asian scale approach
National scale approach
Local scale approach De
taile
d a
nd
sh
ort
er-
term
an
aly
sis
Ag
gre
ga
ted a
nd lo
ng
er-te
rm
an
aly
sis
12/05/30 53
Pan-Asian LCS study now going on
12/05/30 54
National LCS studies now going on
12/05/30 55
Sub-national studies now going on
12/05/30 56
The effects of countermeasures differ by country • Scenarios of each region vary in terms of combination of actions and their effects.
Ex) Thailand: Higher reductions from power generation and fuel shift in Industry
Vietnam: More focusing on demand side measures such as modal shift etc.
Thailand Vietnam
Building
Industry
Passenger
Transport
FreightTransport
Powergeneration
Residential
Commercial
Efficientappliances
Fuelshift
Efficiencyimprovement
ModalShift
Efficiencyimprovement
ModalShift
Lowcarbongeneration
Building
IndustryPassenger
Transport
Freight
Transport
PowerGeneration
Residential
Commercial
Efficientappliances
Fuelshift
Efficiencyimprovement
ModalShift
Efficiencyimprovement
ModalShift
Lowcarbongeneration
-45%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2005 CM2030
CO2emission(Mt-CO2)
-43%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2005 CM2030
CO2emission(Mt-CO2)
12/05/30 57
Brochures introducing our country and region LCS studies
2010/10 2009/11
on going on going 2011/10
2009/10
2011/03
2008/12
2010/10
2011/09
2007/05 2009/10
2009/11
2009/10
2011/05
All information is available from http://2050.nies.go.jp
12/05/30 58
Thank you