Designing a Sustainable Swiss Energy System Presentation

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Designing a Sustainable Swiss Energy System

A Technological and Institutional Perspective

Aldo Ballistreri Jannis Klonk Linda Romanovska Christopher Snyder Friedrich Wochinger

Contents

  General Introduction   Energy Policies in Switzerland   Technological Analysis of Swiss Energy System   Sustainability Issues

  Research Questions, Methodology and Limitations

  Modelling the Current and Future Energy System   Technological Analysis   Cost-Benefit Analysis

  Institutional Change Analysis   Stakeholder Analysis

  Conclusions

  Perspectives

Introduction

  Today’s energy issues – general:   Finite reserves and lack of accessibility

  Growing energy demand

  Increasing price variability

  Security of supply

  Dependency on politically unstable regimes

  Environmental degradation from resource extraction to consumption

  Human health problems

  Today’s energy issues – Switzerland in particular:   High import share

  High CO2 emissions

  Closing down of two nuclear power plants – ‘electricity gap’ of 25%

  Alternative solutions are needed

Characteristics of the Swiss Political System

  Sustainability is leading concept

  Evironmental – Social – Long term economic

  Direct democracy   Public initiatives and referenda

+ Enables population to propose or to prevent a law

+ Leads to compromises supported by majority

– Can delay political process and change

– Might hinder radical change and innovation

  Compliance with many EU directives

  High integration into international energy and especially electricity trade (policies)

Important political milestones

First Energy Law

Energy Article in Federal

Constitution

Construction of first NPPs

First Energy Action Plan

CO2 Act

Electricity supply Act

New Energy Action Plans

Feed in Tarif

1960 2000 1980 1970 1990 2010

Construction of last NPPs

First environmental protection law

Nuclear power development

2040 1960 2000

Beznau II

Beznau I

Gösgen

Mühleberg

Leibstadt

2020 1980

10 year moratorium

No phase out

Anticipated ‘electricity

gap‘

New referenda on NPPs

Rejection of prolonged

moratorium

No phase out

1970 1990 2010 2030

New reactor(s)

First discussions

and referenda on NPPs

39%

56%

4% 1%

Nuclear

Hydro

Thermal

Div RES

Technological Analysis

Swiss energy demand Electricity production

Road traffic 90 %

18,5 % of PES come from renewable resources

Electricity Production

39% 56%

4% 1%


39%

56%

4% 1%

5 Reactors 3 Reactors supply DH

Nuclear


39%

56%

4% 1%

- Storage hydro - River hydro - Pumped storage hydro - Micro hydro


Nuclear

Hydro


39%

56%

4% 1%

- Distric heating CHP - Micro CHP - Industrial CHP - Waste incineration plants - Electricity plant



Nuclear

Hydro

Thermal 38% of fuels is from RE


39%

56%

4%

- Distric heating CHP - Micro CHP - Industrial CHP - Waste incineration plants - Electricity plant

- Photovoltaic - 44.8 MW - Solar thermal - 377 MW - Wind - 13.6 MW



1%

Nuclear

Hydro

Thermal Renewable technolgies

38% of fuels is from RE

Sustainability Issues

Negative impacts

Fossil fuels

Nuclear power

Hydro power

Biomass Solar power

Wind power

Geothermal

GHG emission

Waste management

Damage to ecosystem

Noise pollution

Resources depletation

Risk of minor earthquakes

Toxic effluents

Aesthetic degradation

Hazard to flying creatures

Competition with food production

Water consumption Exposure to

electromagnetic field Exposure to radioactivivty

Flooding

Opposition from local inhabitants

Increasing resource prices

Import dependency

Research question

How can the Swiss energy sector be developed in a sustainable way and what is the character of the needed institutional change?

Sub-questions

1. What is the current political and technological situation of the Swiss energy sector and what are the critical issues from the perspective of sustainability?

2. What is the domestic energy resource base for the choices of the future development of the Swiss energy system?

3. What is a sustainable solution for re-designing the Swiss energy system?

4. What is the character of the change necessary in the institutional setting of the Swiss energy system for implementing a sustainable alternative and what are the positions and opinions of the key stakeholders?

Methodology

Applied theories of subject Research tools:

•  Literature studies and document analysis

•  Idealized re-design

•  EnergyPLAN

•  Cost-benefit analysis

•  Institutional change analysis

•  Stakeholder analysis

•  Structured interviews

Limitations

Geographical

2010

2020 2030

Time Transportation

Behavioural change Future technologies Grid

Modelling the current system

  The modelling tool - EnergyPLAN

  159 data inputs, out of which 69 % from sources, 16% calculated from statistical data, 15% assumptions.

  11 self-made hourly fluctuation data files for hydropower, solar PV, SC, wind power as well as electricity and heat demand.

+ The external conditions

= Technological specifications

The hourly production fluctuations

Exis%ng System 2008 Modelled System 2008 Electricity Demand 58.70 58.70

Import (TWh) 50.27 4.62 Export (TWh) 51.41 5.45

Trade Balance (TWh) 1.14 0.83 RES Share of PES 18.50% 18.80%

Share of electricity producGon 58% 62%

CO2 Emissions (Mt) 42.2 (2007) 46.1 Fossil Fuel Use (TWh) 183.1 172.6

Validation of the modelled system

< 4 Mt

>

Modelling of Future Pathways

  New nuclear capacity   Estimated EV sales

  Accelerated development of RE capacities

  Increased EV sales   Phase out individual coal boiler   Partially replace individual heating

with solar collectors and district heating

Business-as-usual (BAU) Alternative pathway (AP)

  Projected growing trends in energy and fuel demand

  Projected historical development of the existing technologies

Yearly Growth Rates in AP

2010 2030 2020

35%

8% 18%

5%

5% 58%

3% 31%

Utilization of Resources

Wind Building surfaces Biomass

DH

53.18%

32.04%

50.74%

16.14%

86.57%

51.25%

73.03%

20.86%

100% 100% 100% 100%

Total potential

2020

2030

Demand Side Management (2020 - 2030)

  Electricity demand (based on 2020) -15% "

  Industry & services fuels (based on 2020) -15%

  Transportation fuels (based on 2020) -15%

  Electric Heating ✖

  Residential Oil Boilers ✖

Comparison of pathways

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

BAU 2020

BAU 2030

AP 2020

AP 2030

DSM 2020

DSM 2030 Oil

Nuclear

RES

Natural Gas

Biomass

Waste

Coal

TWh/yr

Demand & Supply Balance (AP)

Electricity demand

Electricity export

Electricity import

Nuclear+ Power plants+ Storage Hydro

River Hydro

Wind and PV

Co-generation

Cost & Benefit Analysis

Nuclear Power Renewable technologies

Structure of Costs & Benefits

X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X




















X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X

2011 2020 2030 2040 2050

Investment in PV Investment in Nuclear X O&M of PV X O&M of Nuclear

Methodology of Cost Calculations

150000

160000

170000

180000

190000

200000

BAU AP

ME

uo

Investment costs

Fixed O&M costs

Variable O&M costs

Fuel costs

Total System Costs

0

150000

BAU AP

Externalities

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

450000

BAU AP M

Euo

Externalities

Total System Costs

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

BAU AP

ME

uo

Wind

PV

Hydro

Biomass

Nuclear

Ngas

Coal

Oil

Benefits

Shifting expenses from fuels and investments in nuclear reactors to investment in renewables leads to:

  Reduced CO2 emissions

  Reduced dependency on imports and domestic value creation

  Employment 0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2010 2020 2030

Mt

CO

2 CES

BAU

AP

DSM

Benefits - Employment

-5000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

PV Wind CHP Boiler Nuclear Indiv. SC Total

BAU

AP

Additional Benefits - DSM

24.2 TWh/yr theoretical excess electricity production

Decommissioning of all remaining nuclear power (18.8 TWh/yr) can be considered

 Reduced investments in renewable production possible (lower growth rates)

 Electricity-to-fuel conversion (further benefits such as CO2 / import reductions)

Present situation

Radical technological

change

Future situation

Institutional Change Analysis

Institutional Setting

Stakeholder Analysis Macro Structure

  System Dynamics:

  High degree of vertical integration

  Complex ownership

  Influence on political decision making process

  RE companies have marginal role & are often subsidiaries of large providers

Stakeholder Analysis Micro Structure

Inner circle: Shareholders of SwissGrid Second circle: Public Shareholders Third circle: Private Shareholders

Stakeholder Analysis Interviews

•  Government •  Media •  Industry •  Scientific •  Academic •  NGO

•  Helicopter interviews

•  Questionnaire: open-ended, unbiased

•  Pro-nuclear •  Neutral •  Pro-renewable

Stakeholder Analysis Interview Results

•  Energy security •  Climate change •  Affordability

•  Priorities •  Solutions •  Concerns

•  Electricity gap •  Import

dependency •  Liberalization •  Institutional

barriers •  Political bias


•  Grid stability •  Control •  Profit margins •  Financial

support

•  Lobbying •  Advertising

•  Institutional •  nuclear •  hydro •  fossil fuel

•  Public •  hydro •  solar •  biomass


•  Increased RE •  Energy

efficiency standards

•  Smart grid •  Public transport •  Increase EVs

•  Overcome influence

•  Knowledge base creation

•  Integration of EU energy policies

•  Aggressive & accountable action plans

•  Efficiency programs

•  Emission taxes •  Remove legacy

technology subsidies

•  Increase RE incentives

Conclusions

Unsustainable current energy

system _______________________

Electricity gap

Sufficient renewable energy

sources for electricity gap

____________________

DSM may substitute all

NPP‘s

Technically feasible to

increase RE technologies

____________________

Only slightly more expensive

with considerable benefits

Radical technological

change necessary __________________

Institutional change to

‘punctuated evolution‘

Main barriers are in the

institutional setup

__________________

Need of public

dialogue and education

Development towards

sustainable energy system

possible

Perspectives

  First hand local data could increase precision of modelling

  Production and demand

  Costs

  Domestic value creation

  Externalities

  Inclusion of external markets in the analysis

  Barriers to sustainable development have to be investigated further

  Specific steps towards institutional change have to be determined

  Research results should be translated into political action

Thank You For Your Attention!

Designing a Sustainable Swiss Energy System Presentation

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