DESIGN OF A SUBNATIONAL POPULATION PROJECTION MODEL FOR ETHNIC GROUPS AND FOR DEALING WITH...

DESIGN OF A SUBNATIONAL POPULATION PROJECTION MODEL FOR ETHNIC GROUPS AND FOR DEALING WITH UNCERTAINTY IN

INTERNAL MIGRATION

Philip ReesBSPS Day Meeting on Population Projection, 29 February

2008London School of Economics and Political Science,

Houghton Street, London

ESRC Research Award RES-165-25-0032, What happens when international migrants settle? Ethnic group

population trends and projections for UK local areas

School of GeographyFACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT

Aims– To project the ethnic populations of local areas

(authorities) in the UK over the next 50 years (project)– To explain the model design being developed

(presentation)

Outline– State space of model– Accounting framework– Model structure– Internal migration model– Ethnic mortality estimation– Ethnic fertility estimation– New Migrant Databank – Feedback



Source: Dunnell, K. (2007) The changing demographic picture of the UK: National Statistician’s annual article on the population. Population Trends 130, 9-21.

STATE SPACEZones (434) (O origins, D destinations)England 354 LAsWales 22 UAsScotland 32 CAsNorthern Ireland 26 DCsAges (102 period-cohorts) (A)Bto0, 0to1, 1to2, …, 99to100, 100+to101+ (102)Sexes (2) (S)Males, FemalesEthnic Groups (18) (E)15 from 2001 Census with

“White: Other White-CEE EU”“White: Other White-Other EU”“White: Other-Other”

Time intervals (flexible) (T)1981-1991-2001-2, … , 2005-6, 2006-7, …, 2050-51


COUNTRY POPULATION ACCOUNTS FOR EACH ETHNIC GROUPStandard period-cohort (w=x to x+1)

Age x+1 Destinations (state at end of time interval) Derived totals

Age x Country England Wales Scotland Northern

IrelandRest of World

Deaths/Non-survivors Totals

Internal out-migration totals Survivors

Number 1 2 3 4 ROrigins England 1 S11 M12 M13 M14 E1 D1 SP1 TOM1 S1

(state at start Wales 2 M21 S22 M23 M24 E2 D2 SP2 TOM2 S2

of interval) Scotland 3 M31 M32 S33 M34 E3 D3 SP3 TOM3 S3

Northern Ireland 4 M41 M42 M43 S44 E4 D4 SP4 TOM4 S4

Rest of World R I1 I2 I3 I4 0 0 I*

Totals FP1 FP2 FP3 FP4 E* D* T**

Internal in-migration totals TIM1 TIM2 TIM3 TIM4

To EnglandFrom Northern Ireland

White British

White Irish …

Chinese or other: other

Protestant Pp,wb Pp,wi … Pp,co

Catholic Pc,wb Pc,wi … Pc,co

Other Po,wb Po,wi … Po,co

Age

Time

x

x+1

x+2

t t+1

lx

lx+1

Survival probabilities and survivorship probabilities

Lx

Lx+1

sx

px


COUNTRY POPULATION ACCOUNTS FOR EACH ETHNIC GROUPStandard period-cohort (w=x to x+1)

Age x+1 Destinations (state at end of time interval) Derived totals

Age x Country England Wales Scotland Northern

IrelandRest of World

Deaths/Non-survivors Totals

Internal out-migration totals Survivors

Number 1 2 3 4 ROrigins England 1 S11 M12 M13 M14 E1 D1 SP1 TOM1 S1

(state at start Wales 2 M21 S22 M23 M24 E2 D2 SP2 TOM2 S2

of interval) Scotland 3 M31 M32 S33 M34 E3 D3 SP3 TOM3 S3

Northern Ireland 4 M41 M42 M43 S44 E4 D4 SP4 TOM4 S4

Rest of World R I1 I2 I3 I4 0 0 I*

Totals FP1 FP2 FP3 FP4 E* D* T**

Internal in-migration totals TIM1 TIM2 TIM3 TIM4

To EnglandFrom Northern Ireland

White British

White Irish …

Chinese or other: other

Protestant Pp,wb Pp,wi … Pp,co

Catholic Pc,wb Pc,wi … Pc,co

Other Po,wb Po,wi … Po,co

Accounting framework for zones within countries


DESTINATIONS England Wales ScotlandNorthern Ireland Rest of world Deaths Totals Survivors Total Out-Migrants, Immigrants, Final Populations

City of LondonBarking and Dagenham … Isle of Wight

Isle of Anglesey/Ynys Môn Gwynedd …

Cardiff/Caerdydd Aberdeen City Aberdeenshire : West Lothian Derry City Limavady : Belfast Start Populations

Total Survivors by origin

Total Survivors by origin within UK

Total Out-Migrants to

England

Total Out-Migrants to Wales

Total Out-Migrants to Scotland

Total Out-Migrants to Northern Ireland

ORIGINS Zone names Zones 1(1) 2(1) … N(1) 1(2) 2(2) … N(2) 1(3) 2(3) … N(3) 1(4) 2(4) … N(4) R D S S *(1) *(2) *(3) *(4)England City of London 1(1) S1(1)1(1) M1(1)2(1) … M1(1)N(1) M1(1)1(2) M1(1)2(2) … M1(1)N(2) M1(1)1(3) M1(1)2(3) … M1(1)N(3) M1(1)1(4) M1(1)2(4) … M1(1)N(4) E1(1) D1(1) SP1(1)*(*) S1(1) S1(1)UK TOM1(1)*(1) TOM1(1)*(2) TOM1(1)*(3) TOM1(1)*(4)

Barking and Dagenham 2(1) M2(1)1(1) S2(1)2(1) … M2(1)N(1) M2(1)1(2) M2(1)2(2) … M2(1)N(2) M2(1)1(3) M2(1)2(3) … M2(1)32(3) M2(1)1(1) M2(1)1(1) … M2(1)1(1) E2(1) D2(1) SP2(1)*(*) S2(1) S2(1)UK TOM2(1)*(1) TOM2(1)*(2) TOM2(1)*(3) TOM2(1)1(1)

: : : : … : : ; ; : ; ; : ; : : : : : :Isle of Wight N(1) MN(1)1(1) MN(1)2(1) … SN(1)N(1) MN(1)1(2) MN(1)2(2) … MN(1)N(2) MN(1)1(3) MN(1)2(3) … MN(1)N(3) MN(1)1(4) MN(1)2(4) … MN(1)N(4) EN(1) DN(1) SPN(1)*(*) SN(1) SN(1)UK TOMN(1)*(1) TOMN(1)*(2) TOMN(1)*(3) TOMN(1)*(4)

Wales Isle of Anglesey/Ynys Môn 1(2) M1(2)1(1) M1(2)2(1) … M1(2)N(1) S1(2)1(2) M1(2)2(2) … M1(2)N(2) M1(2)1(3) M1(2)2(3) … M1(2)N(3) M1(2)1(4) M1(2)2(4) … M1(2)N(4) E1(2) D1(2) SP1(2)*(*) S1(2) S1(2)UK TOM1(2)*(1) TOM1(2)*(2) TOM1(2)*(3) TOM1(2)*(4)

Gwynedd 2(2) M2(2)1(1) M2(2)2(1) … M2(2)N(1) M2(2)1(2) S2(2)2(2) … M2(2)N(2) M2(2)1(3) M2(2)2(3) … M2(2)N(4) M2(2)1(4) M2(2)2(4) … M2(2)N(4) E2(2) D2(2) SP2(2)*(*) S2(2) S2(2)UK TOM2(2)*(1) TOM2(2)*(2) TOM2(2)*(3) TOM2(2)*(4)

: : : : … : : : … : : : … : : : … : : : : : :Cardiff/Caerdydd N(2) MN(2)1(1) MN(2)2(1) … MN(2)N(1) MN(2)1(2) MN(2)2(2) … SN(2)N(2) MN(2)1(3) MN(2)2(3) … MN(2)N(3) MN(2)1(4) MN(2)2(4) … MN(2)N(4) EN(2) DN(2) SPN(2)*(*) SN(2) SN(2)UK TOMN(2)*(1) TOMN(2)*(2) TOMN(2)*(3) TOMN(2)*(4)

Scotland Aberdeen City 1(3) M1(3)1(1) M1(3)2(1) … M1(3)N(1) M1(3)1(2) M1(3)2(2) … M1(3)N(2) S1(3)1(3) M1(3)2(3) … M1(3)N(3) M1(3)1(4) M1(3)2(4) … M1(3)N(4) E1(3) D1(3) SP1(3)*(*) S1(3) S1(3)UK TOM1(3)*(1) TOM1(3)*(2) TOM1(3)*(3) TOM1(3)*(4)

Aberdeenshire 2(3) M2(3)1(1) M2(3)2(1) … M2(3)N(1) M2(2)1(2) M2(3)2(2) … M2(3)N(2) M2(3)1(3) S2(3)2(3) … M2(3)N(3) M2(3)1(4) M2(3)2(4) … M2(3)N(4) E2(3) D2(3) SP2(3)*(*) S2(3) S2(3)UK TOM2(3)*(1) TOM2(3)*(2) TOM2(3)*(3) TOM2(3)*(4)

: : : : … : : : … : : : … : : : … : : : : : :West Lothian N(3) MN(3)1(1) MN(3)2(1) … MN(3)N(1) MN(3)1(2) MN(3)2(2) … MN(3)N(2) MN(3)1(3) MN(3)2(3) … SN(3)N(3) MN(3)1(4) MN(3)2(4) … MN(3)N(4) EN(3) DN(3) SPN(3)*(*) SN(3) SN(3)UK TOMN(3)*(1) TOMN(3)*(2) TOMN(3)*(3) TOMN(3)*(4)

Northern Ireland Derry City 1(4) M1(4)1(1) M1(4)2(1) … M1(4)N(1) M1(4)1(2) M1(4)2(2 … M1(4)N(2) M1(4)1(3) M1(4)2(3) … M1(4)N(3) S1(4)1(4) M1(4)2(4) … M1(4)N(4) E1(4) D1(4) SP1(4)*(*) S1(4) S1(4)UK TOM1(4)*(1) TOM1(4)*(2) TOM1(4)*(3) TOM1(4)*(4)

Limavady 2(4) M2(4)1(1) M2(4)2(1) … M2(4)N(1) M2(4)1(2) M2(4)2(2) … M2(4)N(2) M2(4)1(3) M2(4)2(3) … M2(4)N(3) M2(4)1(4) S2(4)2(4) … M2(4)N(4) E2(4) D2(4) SP2(4)*(*) S2(4) S2(4)UK TOM2(4)*(1) TOM2(4)*(2) TOM2(4)*(3) TOM2(4)*(4)

: : : : … : : : … : : : … : : : … : : : : : : :Belfast N(4) MN(4)1(1) MN(4)2(1) … MN(4)N(1) MN(4)1(2) MN(4)2(2) … MN(4)N(2) MN(4)1(3) MN(4)2(3) … MMN(4)N(3) MN(4)1(4) MN(4)2(4) … SN(4)N(4) EN(4) DN(4) SPN(4)*(*) SN(4) SN(4)UK TOMN(4)*(1) TOMN(4)*(2) TOMN(4)*(3) TOMN(4)*(4)

Rest of world Immigrants R I1(1) I2(1) … IN(1) I1(2) I2(2) … IN(2) I1(3) I2(3) … IN(3) I1(4) I2(4) … IN(4) 0 0 I*(*) 0 0 I*(1) I*(2) I*(3) I*(1)

Totals Populations * FP*(*)1(1) FP*(*)2(1) FP*(*)N (1) FP*(*)1(2) FP*(*)2(2) FP*(*)N(2) FP*(*)1(3) FP*(*)2(3) … FP*(*)N(3) FP*(*)1(4) FP*(*)2(4) … FP*(*)N(4) E* D* T*(*)*(*) S* S*UK FP*(*)*(1) FP*(*)*(2) FP*(*)*(3) FP*(*)*(4)

Transitions zones Total In-migrants to England Total In-migrants to Wales Total In-migrants to Scotland Total In-migrants to Northern Ireland

Total emigrants by country

Total deaths by country

Total start population by country

Total Survivors by destination

Total Survivors by destination within UK Total intra- and inter-country migrants

Total In-migrants Total In-Migrants from England *(1) TIM*(1)1(1) TIM*(1)2(1) TIM*(1)N(1) TIM*(1)1(2) TIM*(1)2(2) … TIM*(1)N(2) TIM*(1)1(3) TIM*(1)2(3) … TIM*(1)N(3) TIM*(1)1(4) TIM*(1)2(4) … TIM*(1)N(4) E*(1) D*(1) SP*(1)*(*) S*(1) S*(1)UK M*(1)*(1) M*(1)*(2) M*(1)*(3) M*(1)*(4)

Total In-Migrants from Wales *(2) TIM*(2)1(1) TIM*(2)2(1) TIM*(2)N(1) TIM*(2)1(2) TIM*(2)2(2) TIM*(2)N(2) TIM*(2)1(3) TIM*(2)2(3) TIM*(2)N(3) TIM*(2)1(4) TIM*(2)2(4) TIM*(2)N(4) E*(2) D*(2) SP*(2)*(*) S*(2) S*(2)UK M*(2)*(1) M*(2)*(2) M*(2)*(3) M*(2)*(4)

Total In-Migrants from Scotland *(3) TIM*(3)1(1) TIM*(3)2(1) TIM*(3)N(1) TIM*(3)1(2) TIM*(3)2(2) TIM*(3)N(2) TIM*(3)1(3) TIM*(3)2(3) TIM*(3)N(3) TIM*(3)1(4) TIM*(3)2(4) TIM*(3)N(4) E*(3) D*(3) SP*(3)*(*) S*(3) S*(3)UK M*(3)*(1) M*(3)*(2) M*(3)*(3) M*(3)*(4)

Total In-Migrants from Northern Ireland *(4) TIM*(4)1(1) TIM*(4)2(1) TIM*(4)N(1) TIM*(4)1(2) TIM*(4)2(2) TIM*(4)N(2) TIM*(4)1(3) TIM*(4)2(3) TIM*(4)N(3) TIM*(4)1(4) TIM*(4)2(4) TIM*(4)N(4) E*(4) D*(4) SP*(4)* S*(4) S*(4)UK M*(4)*(1) M*(4)*(2) M*(4)*(3) M*(4)*(4)

Key to cell colours surviving stayers surviving emigrants final populations

surviving migrants within country deaths survivors

surviving migrants between countries start populations immigrants


populations fertility mortality Internal migration

International migration

survival

emigration

migration conditional on

survival within UK

immigration

Mortality assumptions

Emigration assumptions

Internal migration assumptions or

model

Immigration assumptions

Projected deaths, survivors

Projected surviving emigrants

Projected surviving internal migrants

final populations

Projected surviving immigrants

Projected final populations and births

Fertility assumptions

births

Projection outputs

Initial database

scenarios

Ethnic mortality: proposed estimation method1. LA life tables and LA SMRs for whole population2. 2001 Census SIRS for whole population3. Compute SMR = ac + bc SIR for c=England, Wales,

Scotland and Northern Ireland LAs4. 2001 Census SIRs for ethnic groups for LAs5. 2001 ethnic SMRe = ac + bc SIRe

6. dea (1) = d*

a SMRe

7. dea (2) = de

a (1) × [D*a /Σe de

a (1)Pea ]


Internal migration modelSomething between a rock (saturated)

O434 D434 E18 S2 A102 and a hard place (independence)

O434 + D434 + E18 + S2 +A102

such as A102S2 + O434D434E7 + E18

age-sex + origin-age, origin-destination-broad ethnicity + detailed ethnicity


New Migrant DatabaseCensusNiNOWRSNHSPLASC

With Country of origin to Ethnicity conversion


We have been working on/will work on:Model design/program writingInitial database/completion and

harmonisationEthnic mortality/full implementationNew migrant database/integration and

synthesisEthnic fertility/use of GHS and LS


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