Desalination - Comparison-- Part 2012
Transcript of Desalination - Comparison-- Part 2012
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Technical Optimism as anAntidote to Water Scarcity:
Assessing the Desalination Experience in Spain Australia and Israel.
Alon TalBen Gurion University
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“Neo-Malthusianism: Freshwater scarcity is pervasive and growing;
Demand is increasing geometrically Shortages will exacerbate future interstate
relations
The Great Debate
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“Cornucopians”/Prometheans: Water is not finite.
Scarcity -an eminently soluble problem. technological, & institutional remedies available .
Collaboration/cooperation, not conflict –
the norm
The Great Debate
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Vice president of the World BankSerageldin, 1995
UN Secretary General:Boutros Boutros-Ghali , 2000:
“The wars of the nextcentury will be about water.”
(Should We Believe It?)
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Process of removing salt &/or other minerals
from H2O for:Human use (if nearly all salt removed)
Irrigation
Animal use
Desalination:
The Antidote?
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Distillation – Multi-stage flash
– Multiple effect distillation
Membrane processes – Reverse osmosis
– Forward osmosis
• Solar Humidification (Solar still)
• Methane Hydrate Crystallization
Types of desalination
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Fresh water <0.5 ppt (0.5 grams/L)
– Brackish water 5 – 30 parts per thousand
– Saline water 30 – 50 ppt
– Brine > 50 ppt
Typical Sea Water: 35 ppt
Dead Sea- 293: 9x h igher
Water’s Relative Salinity
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Current worldwide desalination capacity: 31 mcm3 /day
Projected to grow to 62 million by 2015
Cost of increased capacity - estimated at $95 billion
Currently ~ 13,600 land-based plants, w/ productionof 100 m3 or more fresh water.
– 50% Middle East
– 20% Americas
– 13% Europe
– 12% Asia
Magnitude of Global
Desalination
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Largest Desalination plant in the world:Jebel Ali Desalination Plant (Phase 2) in United Arab
Emirates:
Dual-purpose facility; MS Flash Distillation: 300 millionm3 /yr
Largest U.S. Facility: Tampa Bay
34.7 million m3
/yr-since Dec. 2007
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40
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130
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1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
YEAR
c e n t / m 3
Ashkelon
Palmachim,
Haifa bayEilat
LARGE SWRO DESALINATION PLANTS
SMALL SWRO DESALINATION PLANTS
TrinidadLarnaca
Malta
DESALINATED SEA WATER COST RANGE
Source: ADAN
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32
40
30
28
34
24
23
28
19
19
22
17
1615
16
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
c e n t / m 3
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
YEAR
O&M
ENERGY
CAPITAL
102
86
70 58
48
TYPICAL LARGE SCALE SWRO DESALINATIONWATER COSTS
Source: ADAN
E i l I
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For 250 ML plant, CO2 production is 500,000 tons -
- equivalent to energy use of 120,000 new cars on the road or
Israel’s Ashkelon Plant: comparable to
energy of city with 55,000 people
Typical RO: one litre of petrol for
every 1000 litres of water (Dickie, 2007)
Environmental Impacts:
Energy
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Short-Term Environmental
Impacts- Effects associated with construction of plant,
- Effects on sensitive coastal environments wheredesalination plants tend to be located.
Adelaide AustraliaNew Desal facility
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Long-Term Environmental
Impacts - withdrawing large volumes of brackish water from anaquifer or seawater from the ocean
- discharging large volumes of highly concentrated brine(Cooley , et al., 2006).
- Impacts of the intake inlet on marine organisms, especially
larvae and small organisms which have key roles in marineecos stems (Dickie, 2007).
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“Crucial that adequate environmental impactassessments conducted prior to construction ofdesalination plants to ensure that all potentialimpacts identified and the project has been
modified or included mitigation plans to addressthese impacts. “
Prevention:
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“Without some means ofupstream scale inhibition,
RO membranes and their
low passages will foul due toscale, the precipitation of
sparingly soluble salts. “
Common examples of scale are calcium carbonate(CaCO3), calcium sulfate (CASO4), barium sulfate(BaSO4), &strontium sulfate (SrSO4).
ntiscalants
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“the whole effluent is a mix of these pollutants, and thattheir combination may have additive effects on marine
life.”
ntiscalant – Impacts
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“The toxicity of all antiscalants to aquatic life is very
low. Problems of eutrophication have been observednear the outlets of desalination plants in the Gulfwhere polyphosphates were used, as these are easilyhydrolyzed to orthophosphate, which is a majornutrient for primary producers. In contrast,policarbonic acids and phosphonates are stablesubstances with low biodegradation rates, which
results in relatively long residence times in coastalwaters.” Sabine Lattemann, Thomas Höpner, 2008, Environmental impact and impactassessment of seawater desalination, Desalination, 220, 1-15.
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Lattimer &Hopner, 2008
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esal Supplants Beach Space
Israel: Pervasive Water
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{
Israel: Pervasive Water
Scarcity
1800
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2200
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2000 2200
3400
3000
2600
1600
1800 AnnualEvaporation
mm
AnnualRainfallAverage
mm
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Lack of 2000mm
1800
Anticipated Population Growth in Israel 1950- 2025
G i
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Source: Israel Central Bureau of Statistics
p p
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
1950 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025
year
P o p u l a t i o
n
( i n
t h o u s a n d s )
Anticipated Population Grwoth in the West Bank and Gaza
Streep 1948- 2015
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
1948 1950 1960 1970 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2015
year
P o p u l a t i o n
( i n t h
o u s a n d s )
Source: UNCTAD (1994), US Census Bureau(accessed online 2008) and Dalen & Pedersen (2004).
GeometricGrowth inPopulation
Past and Present Projected Israeli Water Supply (in MCM)
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Past and Present Projected Israeli Water Supply (in MCM)
Total annual natural production(recharge) 1509
Kinneret basins 559
Easternbasins 130
Negev Basin 70
Arava Basin
Western Galilee Aquifer - 139
Coastal Aquifer - 295
Mountain Aquifer 316Last 17 years 1170 mcm
Last 2 year 820 mcm
469
1355
285
130
291
Source: Israel Water Authority, 2008
2010: Driest Year in IsraeliHistory
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Israeli Streams: Disappearing
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Israeli Agriculture: Suffering
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The Government Acts
April 4, 2002: Construction of 4 sea desal plants toproduce at least 250 million m2 of desalinized water
2012: amount is 340 mcms;
Quantities To Double by 2013
Development of Sea Water Desalination Plants
Development of Sea Water Desalination Plants
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IsraeliDele
gation
IsraeliDelegation
IsraeliDele
gation– – –
Australia19
Australia19
Australia19-- - 22M
arch2007
22M
arch2007
22M
arch2007
Development of Sea Water Desalination Plants
0
36100
130 145 160
280305
405505
2 0 0 4
2 0 0 5
2 0 0 6
2 0 0 7
2 0 0 8
2 0 0 9
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3
(125 )
(60 )
(100)
(120 )
Hadera
Palmachim
Ashdod
Ashkelon
Pre tendering stage/
Financial Agreement
Full production
Since 12/05
Construction phase. Production at 10/09
Shafdan
(100)Full production
Since 9/07
Pre tendering stage
IsraeliDele
gation
IsraeliDelegation
IsraeliDele
gation– – –
Australia19
Australia19
Australia19-- - 22M
arch2007
22M
arch2007
22M
arch2007
IsraeliDele
gation
IsraeliDelegation
IsraeliDele
gation– – –
Australia19
Australia19
Australia19-- - 22M
arch2007
22M
arch2007
22M
arch2007
Development of Sea Water Desalination Plants
0
36100
130 145 160
280305
405505
2 0 0 4
2 0 0 5
2 0 0 6
2 0 0 7
2 0 0 8
2 0 0 9
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3
(125 )
(60 )
(100)
(120 )
Hadera
Palmachim
Ashdod
Ashkelon
Pre tendering stage/
Financial Agreement
Full production
Since 12/05
Construction phase. Production at 10/09
Shafdan
(100)Full production
Since 9/07
Pre tendering stage
0
36100
130 145 160
280305
405505
2 0 0 4
2 0 0 5
2 0 0 6
2 0 0 7
2 0 0 8
2 0 0 9
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3
(125 )
(60 )
(100)
(120 )
(125 )
(60 )
(100)
(120 )
Hadera
Palmachim
Ashdod
Ashkelon
Hadera
Palmachim
Ashdod
Ashkelon
Hadera
Palmachim
Ashdod
Ashkelon
Pre tendering stage/
Financial Agreement
Full production
Since 12/05
Construction phase. Production at 10/09
Shafdan
(100)Full production
Since 9/07
Pre tendering stage
The End of Hydro Socialism
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Jerusalem
Haifa
Tel Aviv
Sea of Galilee
Eilat
The End of Hydro Socialism
2012
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2012
Water Negotiations:
Getting Beyond a“ Zero Sum Game”
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Israeli Desal: Environmental Record
Siting:Contiguous to existing coastal infrastructures
(e.g., electricity plants) .
No net beach loss thus far.
Marine Discharges:
Monitor inert polyphosphate antiscalants in sea:
Marine water quality not suffered,;High iron content in residuals created mini-fishery.
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Israeli Desal: Environmental Record
Energy:Ashkelon plant is powered by a self-generating energy supply
Other facilities rely on electricity from the Israeli power-grid, acoal-dominated, system.
Facility’s 60 mw/hour electricity demands creates greenhousegases at a level commensurate with a city of 45,000 people
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Desalination
Defuses “Hydro Hysteria”
Already Israeli water supply increased 15%.
Should triple in 6 years.
Palestinians unwittingly enjoy water quality benefits.
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Palestinian reservations”:- dependence,- costs to agriculture
- temporary nature
M k t I li ti
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Market Implications
Institutional -- Privatization Private sector presence in local water
management (Israel & Gaza)
Bottled water changes perspectives. (Comoditization of Water)
Bottled water changes economic equation.
Markets require confidence/stability.
International desal consortiums might be 1st stage of regional water market.
Ethical implications trumped by peace dividend
Israel’s Environmental Movement: Generally Complacent
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Israel’s Environmental Movement: Generally Complacent
Historic predilection towards technological optimism.
Peace Implications
Dire situation of local streams/rivers.
Regulatory record impressive.
Ambivalence: “Ironically in creating a stable source of pure
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Ambivalence: Ironically, in creating a stable source of purewater, not subject to the climatic variations of our region,Israel has buffered itself to one source of vulnerability, butexposed itself to several others. With desalination, Israel isincreasingly dependent on water quality in the Mediterranean,the terms of decade-long contracts, and, above all, to energy
price variability…. Desalination allows Israel to avoid hydrological constraints
now, through a technological solution for meeting the inelasticdemands for potable water; but it may introduce future energyconstraints, as the world enters an era where limitations inenergy supply and carbon emissions reach the forefront of the
policy agenda.”(Yaakov Garb, 2010)
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The Australian Desal Bonanza
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Adaptive Management:“A way of responding to uncertainty by designing policy
measures which are provisional and incremental, subjectto subsequent modification in response to environmentalchange and other variables.”
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The Case of Sydney*
Historically relies on capturing surface runoff inreservoir network.
80% of water needs met by
Warragamba Dam in the
Blue Mountains.
*Phoenix Lawhon Isler’s
Research duly acknowledged
Cli i I bili
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Climatic Instability
Sydney's catchments: highly variable, periodicoccurrences of severe drought, often followed byflooding rains when drought breaks.
2002: Drought major concernFalling dam storage
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Regulation Controls Demand Following 1990s, drought, Sydney Water's Drought
Response Management Plan 2002-2012 proposed;
Process with five restriction levels, triggers, andtargeted demand reductions;
Daily per capita water use in Sydney
falls from 506 L/person/ in 1990-91
to 342 L in 2004-05.
Decrease in demand due to:
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Decrease in demand due to:
• stronger mandatory water restrictions;• recycling and education campaigns,
• major effort to fix leaking pipes in metro. area.
“Demand management and water conservation:Sydney uses same amount of water today as in1974, even though population grew by 1million.
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The Mother of All Droughts2003- 2007: Worst Drought on Record
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Sydney starts to get nervous
2004 , NSW Government’s Metropolitan Water
Plan examines supply/ demand projections.
Estimates: “if no actions taken, Sydney will face
a large deficit over the next 30 years.”
Shift from Demand Managemen
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Shift from Demand Managemento Supply Side Straetgy
2004 Metropolitan Water Plan (MWP) , replaced theDrought Response Management Plan.
Commitment of $4 million for planning and design ofa desalination plant “to ensure that, if the droughtcontinues beyond another two years, a desalination
plant for Sydney could be constructed relativelyquickly and efficiently” (NSW, 2004).
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Desal Takes the StageAs drought continued, mandatory restrictions imposedNSW Government under increasing pressure act.
July 2005, Premier Bob Carr announced plan for $2 billion desalination project
Location Kurnell, south of Sydney on Botany Bay.
However the project only to proceed ifdam levels continued to fall for anothertwo years.
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Desal as a “Last Resort” Storage levels in Sydney’s dams -- slowly dropping since 2002at 41% of capacity .
Sydney had at least two years of supply left, in a worst-casescenario of no rain.
Water restrictions up to Level 2 reduced demand – with anaverage annual 12 per cent reduction since 2003 .
The introduction of Level 3 mandatory water restrictions inmid-2005 promised to reduce demand even further.
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The Politics of Water Supply2005: Morris Iemma elected Premier of New South Wales
Announces: "Sydney needs a new source of clean drinkingwater, drought or no drought"
Clear shift from Carr’s promise to build a desalinationplant only if the drought worsened.
A 2005 Newspoll survey found 60 per cent of Sydneyresidents opposed decision to build a desalination plantwould rather see investments in water recycling & reuse
NSW introduces:
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NSW introduces:“Adaptive Management”
new 'desalination readiness’ strategy meant maintainingcapacity to construct the desalination plant only when itis actually needed, rather than building it preemptively.
“Trigger Point” of 30% of storage capacity for the decisionto proceed with construction, only 26 months will berequired to complete a desalination plant (NSW, 2006).
Flexible management of existing sources under uncertainclimatic conditions reducing risk of investing billions ofdollars on infrastructure which may prove unnecessary.
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Politics of Water:
February 2007, two months before NSW election, Premier Iemma vowshe won’t“ let Sydney run out of water”
Reveals that tenders had been called for the desalination plant project(Davies, 2007).
Dam levels approaching 30% trigger point of the desalination readiness
strategy, dipping to a low of 33.9% on 8th, 2007.
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Technological InevitabilityLow point of 33.8% in Feb. turned out to be peak of drought
March 2007, rains return; storage levels rise to 57% by mid-July,
Contracts for the desalination plant project executed.
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2010: Sydney Desal Plant at
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2010: Sydney Desal Plant atKurnel Goes on line
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The Political SpinDesalination plant rebranded as“essential part of Sydney's water supply infrastructure “
PR campaign equation:Dams+ Recycling + Desalination +Water Efficiency = Water4Life.
Sold as a Climate Change Adaptation “security” Measure
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Results: 2012
Increased water rates, equivalent to average$110/yr annual increase/household until 2012.
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Wind farm has been constructed to offset energy demands of the
Sydney desalination plant.
Critics:“this renewable energy capacity could be used to replace
existing coal-derived electricity rather than being directedentirely towards an unnecessary desalination plant.”
Environmental Results: 2012
Climate Change:
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Climate Change:“Maladaptation”
Five pathways through which maladaptation arises;
Increase emissions of greenhouse gases Disproportionately burden on the most vulnerable
High opportunity costs
Reduce incentives to adapt
Set paths that limit the choices available.
(Barnett and O'Neill 2010)
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Skepticism“Desalination distracts from the need to build adaptive capacity andresilience into urban water systems through an integrated, whole-of cycle
approach. It also reflects a misguided pursuit of elimination of climaterisk as a goal attainable through technical means rather than an ongoing process of adaptation of both technical and social systems to buildresilience. Desalination reinforces the institutional tendency to rely onsupply-side solutions, which in turn encourages wasteful consumption
habits, and reduces incentives to adapt water use behaviours. The studyconcludes that desalination plants may be doing more harm than good
for Australian cities by locking in unsustainable patterns of watermanagement and narrow climate adaptation trajectories.”
(Lawhon-Isler, 2010)
Th S i h D li ti E i
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The Spanish Desalination Experience
Desal Pioneer
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Desal PioneerMost veteran user of desalination in Europe
Produces 7% of world-wide capacity.
Canary Islands Plant – 40 years ago.
2000 -- 10,000 m3 /day facilityprovides drinking water
Jinamar. Gran Canaria
Mainland Strategy: Dams
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Mainland Strategy: Dams • 1,300 dams compound 53,500 mcm in reservoirs
• Users; Agriculture• 38% of aggregate runoffpotential utilized
• Without the dams only9% of runoff captured.
Jinamar. Gran Canaria
The Desal Tipping Point
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The Desal Tipping Point
Mediterranean Climate –subject to Drought.
By 2008, water storage at only 46% of normal capacity.
Precipitation 40% below annual averages.
Emergency measures imposed:- 30 € fines for watering gardens.
- 3000 € fines for large pools.
Sh ld ’ h i d !
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Shouldn’t have surprised anyone! Spain has highest per capita national water
consumption rates in Europe.
2/3s of water goes to agricultural operations.
Prices as low as 1/200th of actual operation costs
S i h D l th N t G ti
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Spanish Desal: the Next Generation
New plant going on line in Barcelona.
250 mil. € Torrevieja project nearMadrid will be world’s 2nd largest
Government Policy Shifts
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Government Policy Shifts
New Socialist government proposes ambitious plan
Already 950 desal plants making over 2 mcm/day(Enough to supply 10 million people.)
Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero
Environmental Critics:
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Environmental Critics:
World Wildlife Fund :
“frenetic”, expensive /energy intensive policies.- coastal damage;- invasive species, e.g.,zebra mussels
Spanish Association for the Technological Treatment of Water:Millions of tons of carbon dioxide emissions from each plant
Political Critics:
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Political Critics:
Mariano Rajoy, leader of the opposition :”I would transfer water anywhere. The desalinationplants emit CO2 and contribute to climate change.”
Internal Tensions:Between Catalonian and central Spanish governments
Conclusions
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Conclusions
Desal’s emergence shares 2 elements:- extended droughts and anticipated shortages- reduced costs of producing fresh water.
Agriculture on Horizon
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Agriculture on Horizon FAO study, 22% of water produced by Spanish desal
plants delivered to farmers. (Beltran, 2006).
1/3 of Israeli farmers surveyed envisioned new cropsallowing them to profit from additional desal
allocation -- 5 years ago. (Rassas, 2007)
53% of Australians envisioneddesalinated water as supplyingfuture irrigation of vegetables–twice domestic expectation.
(Dolnicar, 2006).
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Politics: Desal: The 21st century’s dams?
Developing World: Probably
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e e opi g o o a yLimited to Domestic Needs
WHO recommends 100 liters/person/day
55 cents m3 = 5.5 cents/person/day
Downsides Remain
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Downsides Remain
Energy
Security
Cumulative discharges
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Implications
Energy and water policy linked
Water Conservation Programs still Relevant
Asking the right questions
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What are the levels of present and projected water shortages?
Alternative measures for reducing water demand?Is local agriculture operating at maximal efficiency?
What is “shadow price” of desalinated water?Alternative sources that can be produced for a cheaper price?
What measures can reduce carbon footprint?
Availability of Funding?Will privatized investment ensure that water is supplied to all?
g g q
Desalination: One Round for the Optimists
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