Derek Osborn - Broadspectrum
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Transcript of Derek Osborn - Broadspectrum
Services sector innovation to support the Defence Estate
Crowd forecasting for better decision making
Derek OsbornChief Executive, Government
Services and Outsourcing
About Broadspectrum
We deliver a broad range of services that are essential to our clients
across multiple sectors.
About Broadspectrum
Broadspectrum is now part of the Ferrovial group
24Countries
$20bannual revenue
100,000people
“In every way that people, firms, or governments act and plan, they are making implicit forecasts about the future.”
The Economist
December, 1999
Where else are crowdsourced predictions being used?
We are working with large corporate and government
entities around the world to:
• Predict product demand and
sales performance
• Quantify competitive threats
and market trends
• Early warning indicator about
key performance metrics and
milestones
• Early awareness of
operational issues in product
development or project
management
Key Benefits for Broadspectrum
Increase the value of the investment in
our employees by creating collective
intelligence where there once was
none;
Remove the disconnect between
strategic and operational decision
making by leadership and the “ground
truth” our teams possess but find it
difficult to communicate; and
Increase engagement – everyone has
skin in the game by being asked for their
judgments.
Crowd forecasting pilot
What is the underlying benefit?
Key Benefits for BRS Employees
A voice to express true beliefs in a
quantitative and helpful way;
An increased sense of ownership in
critical decisions that may directly
impact them; and
An opportunity to be recognised for
existing knowledge and experience
agnostic to title or compensation.
Publish
forecasting
questions on
the platform
that will
inform the
decision
Ongoing
probabilistic predictions
Rationales for predictions and
discussions
Measurement of individual and
org performance
OUTPUTS
I have a
strategic
decision to
make
Update predictions as new information becomes available
Share what they know in discussion threads
Participants
make their best
predictions
Leaderboard of best forecasters
Feedback from leader(s) of how predictions are being used
How does it work in practice
Useful question structures
Guiding operational and portfolio management decisions:
Will initiative X meet its performance targets this fiscal year?
Will project X be completed on time?
Will research project X yield Y result?
What is the likelihood of X risk occurring on project Y?
Will the contractor complete the project by X date?
If X occurs, how will it affect the effectiveness of the initiative?
Guiding strategic planning:
Will we achieve X level of growth by Y?
What will be the most used technology in X area by 2017?
Will we client X receive funding for project Y?
Participants tell us WHY they predicted the way they did…
“Stronger economic data coming out for us, could push higher”
“US election uncertainty”
“Dollar sneaking higher but unlikely to break 80c”
“currently sitting at 75....Oz election
is gone, interest rates adjusted....”
“Reducing interest rates wont be
enough to make it lift“
“Markets on hold until US election,
steady in band until then”
Date Rate
Late July 0.770
Mid August 0.765
Late August 0.755
Mid Sept 0.745
Late Sept 0.765
Crowd forecasting pilot
Engagement proven – the crowd monitored the environment
and updates AUD / USD FOREX forecast based on external events
and intelligence
ELT CEP
Total number 8 19
Average # of Predictions31
per person27
per person
Average Individual Accuracy* 84 84
*Note: Accuracy is largely determined by how far your prediction was from the correct answer in a given question. We use a Brier score, which is converted to a scale from 50-100. The closer to 100, the more accurate you are as a forecaster.
Co
re /
Hig
h In
ten
sity
use
rs
Crowd forecasting pilot
Good levels of overall engagement
112Registered
participants
>70%
Active participation
970Total
predictions
136Most predictions
recorded in a week
SimilarEngagement between ELT
(72%) and CEP (74%)
A core group of 27 out of 112 users participated regularly (at least
weekly) – this is common practice to have a highly engaged sub-group
This group contributed to 78% of the total predictions on the site and
averaged 28 predictions per person
Breakdown of highly engaged group:
Questions?
11