Dept. of Meteorology Developing Gridded Forecast Guidance for Warm Season Lightning over Florida...

No Slide TitleDeveloping Gridded Forecast Guidance for Warm Season Lightning over Florida Using the Perfect Prognosis Method and Mesoscale Model Output
Phillip E. Shafer
Henry E. Fuelberg
Florida State University
April 4, 2007
Dept. of Meteorology
Lightning leads to outages
to respond
Phase IV: 1 June 2005 – present
Project Timeline
Southeast Flow Southwest Flow
Equations derived for 11 FP&L service areas.
Morning radiosonde parameters used as predictors for afternoon lightning in each area.
Miami, Tampa, Jacksonville, Cape Canaveral
Generally, the sounding closest to each forecast area was used.
Forecasts Useful to FP&L Dispatchers:
“I can state, unequivocally, that SSD uses the forecasts daily as an integral part of the resource and switching decision making process.”
“On many occasions, we may have not held resources based on the projected weather levels only but the lightning forecasts were solid enough to override that decision- to our advantage I might add.”
Phase IV—Space and Time Varying Guidance for all of Florida
Summary & Conclusions
1989-2006 (May-September)
Lightning is one of the leading causes of weather related fatalities in the U.S.
Lightning can cause damage to trees and utility lines, leading to disruptions in power and communications.
Florida is the lightning capital of the U.S.
Many heavily populated areas are vulnerable.
Skillful probabilistic guidance in the 3-12 h time frame would have many potential societal benefits.
Objectives
Use the perfect prognosis (PP) method to develop a high-resolution gridded forecast guidance product for warm season cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning for all of Florida:
-- Equations to produce spatial probability forecasts for one or more CG flashes, and the probability of exceeding various flash count percentile thresholds.
-- 10 x 10 km grid, 3-h intervals
2. Evaluate the utility and skill of the PP scheme when applied to forecast output from several mesoscale models during an independent test period (2006 warm season).
Myriad Factors
Sea breeze usually the dominant forcing mechanism over Florida during the warm season.
Interactions between the sea breeze, the prevailing wind, and coastline curvature have been shown to influence lightning patterns (e.g., Lopez and Holle 1987; Hodanish et al. 1997; Camp et al. 1998; Lericos et al. 2002).
Other myriad factors influence timing and location of convection and lightning:
-- Local thermal circulations (e.g., water conservation areas, lakes, rivers, etc.)
-- Urban effects (e.g., Westcott 1995; Steiger et al. 2002)
-- Thunderstorm outflows
Lightning ultimately is governed by cloud microphysical processes that are poorly resolved by NWP models.
Factors influencing cloud electrification are poorly understood.
Several hypotheses have been proposed:
-- Precipitation hypothesis (Reynolds et al. 1957)
-- Convection hypothesis (Vonnegut 1963)
-- Non-inductive ice-ice collision mechanism (Williams 1985)
Hypotheses depend on a vigorous updraft and robust ice phase for charge generation (Price and Rind 1992, 1993).
But, advances have been made in our understanding of the factors influencing lightning production.
Statistical Studies
A variety of statistical techniques has been used to develop forecast models for thunderstorms and lightning:
-- Multiple linear regression often employed in earlier studies (less computationally demanding).
-- Binary logistic regression more appropriate when predictand is “yes” or “no” (e.g., Mazany et al. 2002; Bothwell 2002; Lambert et al. 2005; Shafer and Fuelberg 2006).
-- Classification and regression trees (e.g., Burrows et al. 2004).
Many studies have used data from morning soundings to forecast afternoon lightning.
Data from NWP models is more location and time specific.
Model Output Statistics
Model Output Statistics (MOS): Objective forecasting technique in which statistical relationships are determined between a predictand and variables forecast by an NWP model.
Advantage: Model biases and local climatology are automatically built into the equations. Usually the method of choice when practical.
Drawback: NWP models are constantly changing. Any modifications to the NWP model that change systematic model errors require redevelopment of the MOS equations.
Advantages:
-- Equations are developed without NWP forecasts (i.e., they are model independent).
-- Equations can be used with any NWP model and forecast projection, even as the models change.
Drawback: Assumes a “perfect” forecast of the predictors by the NWP model and thus, does not account for model biases.
Bothwell (2002): Used PP method to develop forecast equations for CG lightning over the western U.S.
1995-2005 warm seasons used to develop climatological predictors.
2002-2005 warm seasons used in equation development.
Data quality controlled for duplicate flashes and non-CG discharges.
Flashes summed within a 10-km radius of each grid point during each 3-h period (e.g., 0000-0259 UTC, …, 2100-2359 UTC).
P
Box and circular counting regions with equal areas, with 2 lightning strikes A and B
Grid box counting procedure ignores strike B which is closer to P than strike A.
Fixed radius approach- all strikes within a specified distance of P are counted regardless of location.
Counting regions must overlap to assure complete coverage of the study area.
A flash may be assigned to more than one grid point.
~ 314 km2 area
Flashes summed within a 10 km radius of each grid point for each 3-h period (e.g., 0000-0259 UTC, …, 2100-2359 UTC).
3-h flash totals transformed into binary variables.
“1” if one or more flashes or “0” if no lightning
Binary variables also assigned based on whether the flash total exceeds the 50th, 75th, 90th, and 95th percentiles for a given 3-h period:
“Observed” atmospheric predictors derived from RUC analyses during 2002-2005 warm seasons (May-Sept).
RUC data sources:
1. Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program (http://www.arm.gov/xds/static/ruc.stm)
2. National Climatic Data Center (http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov)
20-km, 50 level, hourly version (RUC20) implemented at NCEP during April 2002, with improvements in the analysis/physics.
13-km version (RUC13) implemented at NCEP on 28 June 2005 with further improvements in the analysis/physics.
~ 1.2 TB of RUC grib data was acquired and processed!
Model Analyzed Predictors
Parameters found useful in previous studies were examined:
-- Temperature (layer thickness, temperature advection, cold cloud thickness, etc.)
-- Moisture (moisture flux convergence, theta-e advection, PW, layer mean RH, etc.)
-- Stability (most unstable CAPE in various layers, CIN, best lifted index, Showalter Stability Index, TT, KI, temperature and theta-e lapse rates, etc.)
-- Wind (wind divergence, vorticity, vorticity advection, layer mean U and V components, layer mean speed, layer shear).
Model Analyzed Predictors
All parameters calculated from the RUC 0-h temperature, dew point, wind, height, and surface pressure fields valid every three hours (e.g., 0000 UTC, 0300 UTC, …, 2100 UTC).
Fields interpolated to array of 10 km grid points and transformed into a vertical sounding.
RUC cloud hydrometeor profiles found to be unusable.
Assumption: The model analyses give the best estimate of the state of the atmosphere at the analysis time, and thus, can be treated as “observations” for purposes of developing the PP equations.
We focused mainly on parameters that are well handled by today’s NWP models.
S-PLUS version 6.1 for Windows.
Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) version 11.5 for Windows.
Both are state-of-the-art software packages with a wide range of analysis and modeling capabilities.
4. Model Development
Map Type Predictors
Pattern type lightning frequencies developed and used as candidate predictors.
Capture local enhancements due to interactions between the low-level wind, thermal circulations, and coastline topography, which are not well resolved by NWP models.
3-hourly observed sea-level pressure fields used for pattern classification- implies direction and speed of low-level flow.
SLP fields obtained from RUC analyses spanning the 1998-2005 warm seasons (~1224 days).
Simple correlation technique used to develop the map types (e.g., Lund 1963, Reap 1994).
Map Type Predictors
SLP fields interpolated to array of 100 km grid points.
Map Type Predictors
Relative lightning frequencies and the unconditional mean number of flashes calculated for each map type and 3-h period.
When developing equations, all unclassified maps were assigned the type with which they were most correlated.
5 map types developed using correlation threshold of 0.70.
2 dominant types (A and B) comprise ~44% of the sample.
~22% unclassified at a threshold of 0.70.
Map Type Predictors
Type A composite
High northeast of Florida
Prevailing E-SE flow
Most lightning confined to West Coast and east of Lake Okeechobee.
Map Type Predictors
Ridge over South Florida
Lightning focused along East Coast and Big Bend region.
Type B composite
Map Type Predictors
SE flow over South Florida, S-SW flow across the north.
Lightning maxima evident along both coasts.
Type C composite
Map Type Predictors
High north of Florida, lower pressure to the SE.
Most common after cold frontal passage.
Dry NE flow confines most lightning to South Florida.
Type D composite
Map Type Predictors
Variation of type B- lobe of high pressure over Gulf.
W-NW flow across the state.
Lightning confined to East Coast and Big Bend, with less coverage than type B.
Type E composite
Generalized Linear Models (GLMs)
MLR assumptions of constant variance and Gaussian residuals rarely are met with count data- can lead to undesirable and sometimes nonsensical results.
We considered several regression methods:
-- Forecasting one or more flashes: Binary Logistic Regression
-- Forecasting the amount of lightning: Poisson and Negative Binomial Regression
GLMs can be used for response variables that follow any probability distribution in the exponential family (e.g., Normal, Binomial, Poisson, Negative Binomial, etc.).
GLMs accommodate non-Gaussian distributions of residuals and non-constant variance.
Binary Logistic Regression
Most appropriate when predictand is “yes” or “no”
Log link function relates odds ratio to linear combination of predictors.
Probabilities bounded on the interval [0,1]
Accommodates Bernoulli distribution of residuals.
More appropriate model for count data
Log link function linearizes the expected value () of the dependent variable (y)
Poisson probability model assumes that events occur randomly and at a constant average rate () with
Var(y) = , where is a dispersion parameter.
Poisson model assumes = 1
Strongly skewed distribution
Many cases with 10 or fewer flashes, few with 100 or more.
Very large variance (~80 times greater than the mean)
Data significantly over-dispersed with respect to Poisson model ( >> 1)
Likely cause: Counts generated by an inhomogeneous Poisson process- count rates vary in space and time.
1800-2059 UTC period
Negative Binomial Regression
Alternative probability model with shape parameter
Var(y) is a quadratic function of :
Var(yi | [xi] ) = ( [xi] + -1[xi] 2 )
More accurately characterizes the uncertainty in the predicted count than does the Poisson model.
Poisson model poorly represents count distribution
Negative binomial captures large number of cases with 10 or fewer flashes.
Flash Count Probability Distribution Implied from
Poisson and Negative Binomial Models
Negative Binomial Regression
NB distribution has been used in previous studies to model thunderstorms at KSC.
No known study has used the NB as the probability model for lightning counts.
Since the count distribution is left-truncated at y=1, we can treat y-1 as having a NB distribution.
Probabilities for each y-1 must sum to 1.
Probability of exceeding any count threshold T :
Regionalized Approach
Domain first divided into 9 areas- separate models developed for each.
Best results achieved by consolidating 9 areas into 4 larger regions:
-- East Coast
-- West Coast
Principal Component Analysis
Principal component (PC) analysis performed to examine inter-correlations among the predictors.
PC groupings and Pearson correlations between each predictor and the lightning predictands used to select a subset of most physically relevant predictors with less mutual correlation.
Some parameters with mutual correlation still were retained for possible selection (e.g., KI and PW, several layer CAPEs, etc.)
Final Candidate Predictors
Long list of candidate predictors contains redundant information.
Principal component analysis used to select subset of predictors with less mutual correlation.
Correlations with lightning predictands are low- no single observed predictor is good indicator of lightning.
Power terms and cross products (interactions) also calculated and included in final predictor pool.
3-h change in each parameter also included (trend indicators).
Map type predictors
Overlapping counting regions may give undue influence to a “strategically-placed” flash.
Only data for non-overlapping (disjoint) regions were used in each regression sample.
Each sample ~ 25% of data.
4 separate samples.
Note: results generally not affected if data for all grid points are included in regression sample.
Combination of forward stepwise selection and cross-validation used to develop BLR and NB models.
Even years (2002 and 2004) used as “learning” sample.
Odd years (2003 and 2005) used as “evaluation” sample.
Procedure identifies best combination of predictors that is most likely to generalize to independent data, and not over-fit the dependent sample.
Models containing only climatology and persistence (L-CLIPER) also developed as a benchmark for assessing forecast skill.
5. Model Parameters
NB models for the amount of lightning
Most important parameters for 1800-2059 UTC
Moisture
Peak in FREQ1 for PRECPW ~ 5.5 cm.
Largest PRECPW usually associated with tropical influences.
Sheet1
PW
freq
KI
Mean
1.842533
2.85E-02
-8.063673
1.016704
2.127605
3.42E-02
-2.835516
0.3255814
2.328342
2.53E-02
0.546791
0.2656059
2.51813
1.79E-02
2.997749
0.2001584
2.676159
2.84E-02
5.04506
0.2260062
2.802269
3.72E-02
6.85183
0.2324141
2.906087
4.49E-02
8.4942
0.4522284
2.993038
5.28E-02
10.02051
0.4447404
3.071194
4.49E-02
11.44279
0.49658
3.144625
4.49E-02
12.75429
0.4189647
3.214805
5.42E-02
13.92952
0.5429476
3.281943
5.28E-02
14.99213
0.7620419
3.344544
5.84E-02
15.91371
0.8925769
3.404117
6.04E-02
16.73353
0.9710562
3.459456
6.39E-02
17.48608
1.145079
3.513863
6.54E-02
18.1885
1.646987
3.567114
7.08E-02
18.85697
1.683923
3.619709
8.04E-02
19.48948
2.014544
3.671341
7.85E-02
20.09225
2.074447
3.721243
8.17E-02
20.69587
2.432213
3.771221
8.71E-02
21.27828
2.191231
3.81948
9.07E-02
21.83355
2.083159
3.866156
9.52E-02
22.35901
2.190871
3.910916
9.96E-02
22.85449
2.409173
3.953931
0.1113111
23.32565
2.568867
3.995625
0.1018792
23.78112
3.0504
4.034835
0.1139031
24.21951
2.97156
4.071892
0.122615
24.64052
3.429116
4.109172
0.126287
25.03689
3.721434
4.14597
0.1360069
25.41142
3.652027
4.183828
0.1441429
25.76403
3.28987
4.221979
0.1517748
26.10143
4.07452
4.258566
0.1547988
26.42937
4.076679
4.294291
0.1566707
26.75058
3.580675
4.328648
0.1596227
27.0514
4.176111
4.36353
0.1519188
27.33452
4.72345
4.396873
0.1621427
27.60814
4.697314
4.430677
0.1694146
27.87212
4.769962
4.463495
0.1717186
28.11801
4.660883
4.495605
0.1795666
28.35598
4.955072
4.526386
0.1838145
28.58401
4.818706
4.555973
0.1961984
28.80331
5.501836
4.585245
0.2010224
29.01268
5.177623
4.612536
0.2126863
29.21357
5.185831
4.639252
0.2164303
29.40819
5.188207
4.664997
0.2185902
29.59886
5.241702
4.690294
0.2172943
29.78528
5.238678
4.715047
0.2260782
29.96624
5.491612
4.739288
0.2343581
30.14491
5.994816
4.762145
0.2398301
30.31856
5.74469
4.786202
0.2390381
30.48928
5.469148
4.809719
0.2375981
30.65324
5.681907
4.832737
0.245518
30.81534
5.734034
4.856778
0.2651019
30.97694
6.040104
4.879269
0.25315
31.1353
6.083591
4.901359
0.2613579
31.29174
5.918929
4.92318
0.251206
31.44417
6.029952
4.94615
0.2581899
31.59501
5.762042
4.968233
0.2656779
31.74318
5.902081
4.989525
0.2892217
31.89066
6.19195
5.010778
0.2807257
32.03699
5.821514
5.03201
0.2717978
32.18179
5.828425
5.053206
0.2843257
32.3255
6.124991
5.075156
0.2890057
32.46474
5.859097
5.097106
0.2945496
32.6003
5.941248
5.118546
0.2958456
32.73306
6.27691
5.139728
0.3061416
32.86682
6.052055
5.160793
0.2973576
32.99967
6.056304
5.181571
0.3096695
33.13105
6.030816
5.202572
0.3103895
33.26046
6.361797
5.223269
0.3119015
33.38975
6.335301
5.244416
0.3106775
33.51732
6.98812
5.265727
0.3224134
33.64527
7.226726
5.286973
0.3175175
33.77409
7.419181
5.308589
0.3226294
33.90089
7.593635
5.330294
0.3184535
34.02669
6.837281
5.352078
0.3387573
34.15512
7.821082
5.374186
0.3409893
34.28484
8.002736
5.39743
0.3520052
34.41338
7.655123
5.420108
0.3474692
34.54046
7.844265
5.443536
0.3317733
34.67286
7.512564
5.467858
0.3373173
34.80373
7.810138
5.491167
0.3439412
34.93914
7.918137
5.516249
0.3493412
35.07925
7.157823
5.541389
0.3409173
35.22139
7.159263
5.568638
0.3367413
35.36711
7.327526
5.595792
0.3551012
35.51657
7.147959
5.624735
0.3453812
35.67099
7.039888
5.655556
0.3349413
35.83314
7.702498
5.688136
0.3270934
36.00551
8.201383
5.723677
0.3436533
36.18929
7.940888
5.761058
0.3364533
36.3842
8.736914
5.802956
0.3477572
36.59587
8.830585
5.850451
0.3519332
36.8303
9.050615
5.903475
0.3346533
37.08374
8.540212
5.966469
0.3286054
37.37586
8.143063
6.046736
0.3209014
37.72516
6.654907
6.158642
0.3057815
38.18718
8.321478
PW_freq
1.842533
2.127605
2.328342
2.51813
2.676159
2.802269
2.906087
2.993038
3.071194
3.144625
3.214805
3.281943
3.344544
3.404117
3.459456
3.513863
3.567114
3.619709
3.671341
3.721243
3.771221
3.81948
3.866156
3.910916
3.953931
3.995625
4.034835
4.071892
4.109172
4.14597
4.183828
4.221979
4.258566
4.294291
4.328648
4.36353
4.396873
4.430677
4.463495
4.495605
4.526386
4.555973
4.585245
4.612536
4.639252
4.664997
4.690294
4.715047
4.739288
4.762145
4.786202
4.809719
4.832737
4.856778
4.879269
4.901359
4.92318
4.94615
4.968233
4.989525
5.010778
5.03201
5.053206
5.075156
5.097106
5.118546
5.139728
5.160793
5.181571
5.202572
5.223269
5.244416
5.265727
5.286973
5.308589
5.330294
5.352078
5.374186
5.39743
5.420108
5.443536
5.467858
5.491167
5.516249
5.541389
5.568638
5.595792
5.624735
5.655556
5.688136
5.723677
5.761058
5.802956
5.850451
5.903475
5.966469
6.046736
6.158642
Frequency of One or More Flashes
Frequency of One or More Flashes vs. Precipitable Water 1800-2059 UTC period
0.028511772
0.034199726
0.025271798
0.017855857
0.028367773
0.037151702
0.044927642
0.052847575
0.044855639
0.044855639
0.054215565
0.052775577
0.058391534
0.060407516
0.063935488
0.065375477
0.070847437
0.080423355
0.078479372
0.081719346
0.087119304
0.090719275
0.095183238
0.099575207
0.1113111
0.1018792
0.1139031
0.122615
0.126287
0.1360069
0.1441429
0.1517748
0.1547988
0.1566707
0.1596227
0.1519188
0.1621427
0.1694146
0.1717186
0.1795666
0.1838145
0.1961984
0.2010224
0.2126863
0.2164303
0.2185902
0.2172943
0.2260782
0.2343581
0.2398301
0.2390381
0.2375981
0.245518
0.2651019
0.25315
0.2613579
0.251206
0.2581899
0.2656779
0.2892217
0.2807257
0.2717978
0.2843257
0.2890057
0.2945496
0.2958456
0.3061416
0.2973576
0.3096695
0.3103895
0.3119015
0.3106775
0.3224134
0.3175175
0.3226294
0.3184535
0.3387573
0.3409893
0.3520052
0.3474692
0.3317733
0.3373173
0.3439412
0.3493412
0.3409173
0.3367413
0.3551012
0.3453812
0.3349413
0.3270934
0.3436533
0.3364533
0.3477572
0.3519332
0.3346533
0.3286054
0.3209014
0.3057815
KI_Mean
-8.063673
-2.835516
0.546791
2.997749
5.04506
6.85183
8.4942
10.02051
11.44279
12.75429
13.92952
14.99213
15.91371
16.73353
17.48608
18.1885
18.85697
19.48948
20.09225
20.69587
21.27828
21.83355
22.35901
22.85449
23.32565
23.78112
24.21951
24.64052
25.03689
25.41142
25.76403
26.10143
26.42937
26.75058
27.0514
27.33452
27.60814
27.87212
28.11801
28.35598
28.58401
28.80331
29.01268
29.21357
29.40819
29.59886
29.78528
29.96624
30.14491
30.31856
30.48928
30.65324
30.81534
30.97694
31.1353
31.29174
31.44417
31.59501
31.74318
31.89066
32.03699
32.18179
32.3255
32.46474
32.6003
32.73306
32.86682
32.99967
33.13105
33.26046
33.38975
33.51732
33.64527
33.77409
33.90089
34.02669
34.15512
34.28484
34.41338
34.54046
34.67286
34.80373
34.93914
35.07925
35.22139
35.36711
35.51657
35.67099
35.83314
36.00551
36.18929
36.3842
36.59587
36.8303
37.08374
37.37586
37.72516
38.18718
Unconditional Mean Number of Flashes vs. K-index 1800-2059 UTC period
1.016704
0.3255814
0.2656059
0.2001584
0.2260062
0.2324141
0.4522284
0.4447404
0.49658
0.4189647
0.5429476
0.7620419
0.8925769
0.9710562
1.145079
1.646987
1.683923
2.014544
2.074447
2.432213
2.191231
2.083159
2.190871
2.409173
2.568867
3.0504
2.97156
3.429116
3.721434
3.652027
3.28987
4.07452
4.076679
3.580675
4.176111
4.72345
4.697314
4.769962
4.660883
4.955072
4.818706
5.501836
5.177623
5.185831
5.188207
5.241702
5.238678
5.491612
5.994816
5.74469
5.469148
5.681907
5.734034
6.040104
6.083591
5.918929
6.029952
5.762042
5.902081
6.19195
5.821514
5.828425
6.124991
5.859097
5.941248
6.27691
6.052055
6.056304
6.030816
6.361797
6.335301
6.98812
7.226726
7.419181
7.593635
6.837281
7.821082
8.002736
7.655123
7.844265
7.512564
7.810138
7.918137
7.157823
7.159263
7.327526
7.147959
7.039888
7.702498
8.201383
7.940888
8.736914
8.830585
9.050615
8.540212
8.143063
6.654907
8.321478
MeanU3
-10.15
-6.413
-5.415
-4.789
-4.33
-3.981
-3.655
-3.334
-3.033
-2.772
-2.506
-2.264
-2.026
-1.76
-1.516
-1.276
-1.057
-0.8572
-0.6564
-0.4503
-0.2531
0.05246
0.1318
0.3145
0.5147
0.7352
0.9589
1.162
1.362
1.583
1.805
2.007
2.23
2.472
2.713
2.936
3.175
3.439
3.7
3.983
4.259
4.543
4.869
5.244
5.677
6.093
6.577
7.172
7.987
10.14
PW
1000-700 hPa Mean U-wind Component (m/s)
Frequency of One or More Flashes vs. 1000-700 hPa Mean U-wind Component
0.08898
0.0859
0.09113
0.1028
0.135
0.1389
0.1541
0.1571
0.1656
0.174
0.1643
0.2076
0.2137
0.2316
0.2542
0.2496
0.2625
0.2591
0.2682
0.2666
0.2772
0.2856
0.3094
0.3091
0.3028
0.3037
0.3138
0.3117
0.3124
0.3384
0.3329
0.3175
0.3435
0.3492
0.34
0.3239
0.3188
0.3653
0.3787
0.3133
0.2836
0.2827
0.2687
0.2351
0.2109
0.2145
0.2389
0.211
0.1704
0.1527
Sheet1
PW
freq
KI
Mean
1.842533
2.85E-02
-8.063673
1.016704
2.127605
3.42E-02
-2.835516
0.3255814
2.328342
2.53E-02
0.546791
0.2656059
2.51813
1.79E-02
2.997749
0.2001584
2.676159
2.84E-02
5.04506
0.2260062
2.802269
3.72E-02
6.85183
0.2324141
2.906087
4.49E-02
8.4942
0.4522284
2.993038
5.28E-02
10.02051
0.4447404
3.071194
4.49E-02
11.44279
0.49658
3.144625
4.49E-02
12.75429
0.4189647
3.214805
5.42E-02
13.92952
0.5429476
3.281943
5.28E-02
14.99213
0.7620419
3.344544
5.84E-02
15.91371
0.8925769
3.404117
6.04E-02
16.73353
0.9710562
3.459456
6.39E-02
17.48608
1.145079
3.513863
6.54E-02
18.1885
1.646987
3.567114
7.08E-02
18.85697
1.683923
3.619709
8.04E-02
19.48948
2.014544
3.671341
7.85E-02
20.09225
2.074447
3.721243
8.17E-02
20.69587
2.432213
3.771221
8.71E-02
21.27828
2.191231
3.81948
9.07E-02
21.83355
2.083159
3.866156
9.52E-02
22.35901
2.190871
3.910916
9.96E-02
22.85449
2.409173
3.953931
0.1113111
23.32565
2.568867
3.995625
0.1018792
23.78112
3.0504
4.034835
0.1139031
24.21951
2.97156
4.071892
0.122615
24.64052
3.429116
4.109172
0.126287
25.03689
3.721434
4.14597
0.1360069
25.41142
3.652027
4.183828
0.1441429
25.76403
3.28987
4.221979
0.1517748
26.10143
4.07452
4.258566
0.1547988
26.42937
4.076679
4.294291
0.1566707
26.75058
3.580675
4.328648
0.1596227
27.0514
4.176111
4.36353
0.1519188
27.33452
4.72345
4.396873
0.1621427
27.60814
4.697314
4.430677
0.1694146
27.87212
4.769962
4.463495
0.1717186
28.11801
4.660883
4.495605
0.1795666
28.35598
4.955072
4.526386
0.1838145
28.58401
4.818706
4.555973
0.1961984
28.80331
5.501836
4.585245
0.2010224
29.01268
5.177623
4.612536
0.2126863
29.21357
5.185831
4.639252
0.2164303
29.40819
5.188207
4.664997
0.2185902
29.59886
5.241702
4.690294
0.2172943
29.78528
5.238678
4.715047
0.2260782
29.96624
5.491612
4.739288
0.2343581
30.14491
5.994816
4.762145
0.2398301
30.31856
5.74469
4.786202
0.2390381
30.48928
5.469148
4.809719
0.2375981
30.65324
5.681907
4.832737
0.245518
30.81534
5.734034
4.856778
0.2651019
30.97694
6.040104
4.879269
0.25315
31.1353
6.083591
4.901359
0.2613579
31.29174
5.918929
4.92318
0.251206
31.44417
6.029952
4.94615
0.2581899
31.59501
5.762042
4.968233
0.2656779
31.74318
5.902081
4.989525
0.2892217
31.89066
6.19195
5.010778
0.2807257
32.03699
5.821514
5.03201
0.2717978
32.18179
5.828425
5.053206
0.2843257
32.3255
6.124991
5.075156
0.2890057
32.46474
5.859097
5.097106
0.2945496
32.6003
5.941248
5.118546
0.2958456
32.73306
6.27691
5.139728
0.3061416
32.86682
6.052055
5.160793
0.2973576
32.99967
6.056304
5.181571
0.3096695
33.13105
6.030816
5.202572
0.3103895
33.26046
6.361797
5.223269
0.3119015
33.38975
6.335301
5.244416
0.3106775
33.51732
6.98812
5.265727
0.3224134
33.64527
7.226726
5.286973
0.3175175
33.77409
7.419181
5.308589
0.3226294
33.90089
7.593635
5.330294
0.3184535
34.02669
6.837281
5.352078
0.3387573
34.15512
7.821082
5.374186
0.3409893
34.28484
8.002736
5.39743
0.3520052
34.41338
7.655123
5.420108
0.3474692
34.54046
7.844265
5.443536
0.3317733
34.67286
7.512564
5.467858
0.3373173
34.80373
7.810138
5.491167
0.3439412
34.93914
7.918137
5.516249
0.3493412
35.07925
7.157823
5.541389
0.3409173
35.22139
7.159263
5.568638
0.3367413
35.36711
7.327526
5.595792
0.3551012
35.51657
7.147959
5.624735
0.3453812
35.67099
7.039888
5.655556
0.3349413
35.83314
7.702498
5.688136
0.3270934
36.00551
8.201383
5.723677
0.3436533
36.18929
7.940888
5.761058
0.3364533
36.3842
8.736914
5.802956
0.3477572
36.59587
8.830585
5.850451
0.3519332
36.8303
9.050615
5.903475
0.3346533
37.08374
8.540212
5.966469
0.3286054
37.37586
8.143063
6.046736
0.3209014
37.72516
6.654907
6.158642
0.3057815
38.18718
8.321478
PW_freq
1.842533
2.127605
2.328342
2.51813
2.676159
2.802269
2.906087
2.993038
3.071194
3.144625
3.214805
3.281943
3.344544
3.404117
3.459456
3.513863
3.567114
3.619709
3.671341
3.721243
3.771221
3.81948
3.866156
3.910916
3.953931
3.995625
4.034835
4.071892
4.109172
4.14597
4.183828
4.221979
4.258566
4.294291
4.328648
4.36353
4.396873
4.430677
4.463495
4.495605
4.526386
4.555973
4.585245
4.612536
4.639252
4.664997
4.690294
4.715047
4.739288
4.762145
4.786202
4.809719
4.832737
4.856778
4.879269
4.901359
4.92318
4.94615
4.968233
4.989525
5.010778
5.03201
5.053206
5.075156
5.097106
5.118546
5.139728
5.160793
5.181571
5.202572
5.223269
5.244416
5.265727
5.286973
5.308589
5.330294
5.352078
5.374186
5.39743
5.420108
5.443536
5.467858
5.491167
5.516249
5.541389
5.568638
5.595792
5.624735
5.655556
5.688136
5.723677
5.761058
5.802956
5.850451
5.903475
5.966469
6.046736
6.158642
0.028511772
0.034199726
0.025271798
0.017855857
0.028367773
0.037151702
0.044927642
0.052847575
0.044855639
0.044855639
0.054215565
0.052775577
0.058391534
0.060407516
0.063935488
0.065375477
0.070847437
0.080423355
0.078479372
0.081719346
0.087119304
0.090719275
0.095183238
0.099575207
0.1113111
0.1018792
0.1139031
0.122615
0.126287
0.1360069
0.1441429
0.1517748
0.1547988
0.1566707
0.1596227
0.1519188
0.1621427
0.1694146
0.1717186
0.1795666
0.1838145
0.1961984
0.2010224
0.2126863
0.2164303
0.2185902
0.2172943
0.2260782
0.2343581
0.2398301
0.2390381
0.2375981
0.245518
0.2651019
0.25315
0.2613579
0.251206
0.2581899
0.2656779
0.2892217
0.2807257
0.2717978
0.2843257
0.2890057
0.2945496
0.2958456
0.3061416
0.2973576
0.3096695
0.3103895
0.3119015
0.3106775
0.3224134
0.3175175
0.3226294
0.3184535
0.3387573
0.3409893
0.3520052
0.3474692
0.3317733
0.3373173
0.3439412
0.3493412
0.3409173
0.3367413
0.3551012
0.3453812
0.3349413
0.3270934
0.3436533
0.3364533
0.3477572
0.3519332
0.3346533
0.3286054
0.3209014
0.3057815
KI_Mean
-8.063673
-2.835516
0.546791
2.997749
5.04506
6.85183
8.4942
10.02051
11.44279
12.75429
13.92952
14.99213
15.91371
16.73353
17.48608
18.1885
18.85697
19.48948
20.09225
20.69587
21.27828
21.83355
22.35901
22.85449
23.32565
23.78112
24.21951
24.64052
25.03689
25.41142
25.76403
26.10143
26.42937
26.75058
27.0514
27.33452
27.60814
27.87212
28.11801
28.35598
28.58401
28.80331
29.01268
29.21357
29.40819
29.59886
29.78528
29.96624
30.14491
30.31856
30.48928
30.65324
30.81534
30.97694
31.1353
31.29174
31.44417
31.59501
31.74318
31.89066
32.03699
32.18179
32.3255
32.46474
32.6003
32.73306
32.86682
32.99967
33.13105
33.26046
33.38975
33.51732
33.64527
33.77409
33.90089
34.02669
34.15512
34.28484
34.41338
34.54046
34.67286
34.80373
34.93914
35.07925
35.22139
35.36711
35.51657
35.67099
35.83314
36.00551
36.18929
36.3842
36.59587
36.8303
37.08374
37.37586
37.72516
38.18718
1.016704
0.3255814
0.2656059
0.2001584
0.2260062
0.2324141
0.4522284
0.4447404
0.49658
0.4189647
0.5429476
0.7620419
0.8925769
0.9710562
1.145079
1.646987
1.683923
2.014544
2.074447
2.432213
2.191231
2.083159
2.190871
2.409173
2.568867
3.0504
2.97156
3.429116
3.721434
3.652027
3.28987
4.07452
4.076679
3.580675
4.176111
4.72345
4.697314
4.769962
4.660883
4.955072
4.818706
5.501836
5.177623
5.185831
5.188207
5.241702
5.238678
5.491612
5.994816
5.74469
5.469148
5.681907
5.734034
6.040104
6.083591
5.918929
6.029952
5.762042
5.902081
6.19195
5.821514
5.828425
6.124991
5.859097
5.941248
6.27691
6.052055
6.056304
6.030816
6.361797
6.335301
6.98812
7.226726
7.419181
7.593635
6.837281
7.821082
8.002736
7.655123
7.844265
7.512564
7.810138
7.918137
7.157823
7.159263
7.327526
7.147959
7.039888
7.702498
8.201383
7.940888
8.736914
8.830585
9.050615
8.540212
8.143063
6.654907
8.321478
MeanU3
-10.15
-6.413
-5.415
-4.789
-4.33
-3.981
-3.655
-3.334
-3.033
-2.772
-2.506
-2.264
-2.026
-1.76
-1.516
-1.276
-1.057
-0.8572
-0.6564
-0.4503
-0.2531
0.05246
0.1318
0.3145
0.5147
0.7352
0.9589
1.162
1.362
1.583
1.805
2.007
2.23
2.472
2.713
2.936
3.175
3.439
3.7
3.983
4.259
4.543
4.869
5.244
5.677
6.093
6.577
7.172
7.987
10.14
PW
0.08898
0.0859
0.09113
0.1028
0.135
0.1389
0.1541
0.1571
0.1656
0.174
0.1643
0.2076
0.2137
0.2316
0.2542
0.2496
0.2625
0.2591
0.2682
0.2666
0.2772
0.2856
0.3094
0.3091
0.3028
0.3037
0.3138
0.3117
0.3124
0.3384
0.3329
0.3175
0.3435
0.3492
0.34
0.3239
0.3188
0.3653
0.3787
0.3133
0.2836
0.2827
0.2687
0.2351
0.2109
0.2145
0.2389
0.211
0.1704
0.1527
Instability
Instability
Likelihood of one or more flashes and the amount of lightning increases with decreasing BESTLI.
Sufficient instability leading to a strong updraft is necessary for charge generation.
Layer CAPE and SSI selected for other periods.
Sheet1
PW
freq
KI
Mean
BestLI
freq
1.842533
2.85E-02
-8.063673
1.016704
-10.54047
0.2651739
2.127605
3.42E-02
-2.835516
0.3255814
-10.06573
0.2743178
2.328342
2.53E-02
0.546791
0.2656059
-9.745032
0.2752538
2.51813
1.79E-02
2.997749
0.2001584
-9.497192
0.2859097
2.676159
2.84E-02
5.04506
0.2260062
-9.295535
0.2900137
2.802269
3.72E-02
6.85183
0.2324141
-9.124167
0.2922457
2.906087
4.49E-02
8.4942
0.4522284
-8.972519
0.3041976
2.993038
5.28E-02
10.02051
0.4447404
-8.838746
0.2978616
3.071194
4.49E-02
11.44279
0.49658
-8.714912
0.3010296
3.144625
4.49E-02
12.75429
0.4189647
-8.597766
0.2989416
3.214805
5.42E-02
13.92952
0.5429476
-8.488699
0.2977896
3.281943
5.28E-02
14.99213
0.7620419
-8.385844
0.2953416
3.344544
5.84E-02
15.91371
0.8925769
-8.28849
0.2921737
3.404117
6.04E-02
16.73353
0.9710562
-8.196143
0.2918857
3.459456
6.39E-02
17.48608
1.145079
-8.108125
0.2846137
3.513863
6.54E-02
18.1885
1.646987
-8.022444
0.2877817
3.567114
7.08E-02
18.85697
1.683923
-7.940507
0.2820937
3.619709
8.04E-02
19.48948
2.014544
-7.862792
0.2807977
3.671341
7.85E-02
20.09225
2.074447
-7.787355
0.2872777
3.721243
8.17E-02
20.69587
2.432213
-7.713038
0.2777738
3.771221
8.71E-02
21.27828
2.191231
-7.640923
0.2902297
3.81948
9.07E-02
21.83355
2.083159
-7.570269
0.2883577
3.866156
9.52E-02
22.35901
2.190871
-7.500986
0.2871337
3.910916
9.96E-02
22.85449
2.409173
-7.432957
0.2889337
3.953931
0.1113111
23.32565
2.568867
-7.366651
0.2885017
3.995625
0.1018792
23.78112
3.0504
-7.300976
0.2793578
4.034835
0.1139031
24.21951
2.97156
-7.237081
0.2789258
4.071892
0.122615
24.64052
3.429116
-7.172779
0.2837497
4.109172
0.126287
25.03689
3.721434
-7.110784
0.2779898
4.14597
0.1360069
25.41142
3.652027
-7.048006
0.2823817
4.183828
0.1441429
25.76403
3.28987
-6.986724
0.2820217
4.221979
0.1517748
26.10143
4.07452
-6.925626
0.2808698
4.258566
0.1547988
26.42937
4.076679
-6.864472
0.2733818
4.294291
0.1566707
26.75058
3.580675
-6.804246
0.2807977
4.328648
0.1596227
27.0514
4.176111
-6.744633
0.2785658
4.36353
0.1519188
27.33452
4.72345
-6.685432
0.2727338
4.396873
0.1621427
27.60814
4.697314
-6.62663
0.2677658
4.430677
0.1694146
27.87212
4.769962
-6.568094
0.2610699
4.463495
0.1717186
28.11801
4.660883
-6.509382
0.2693498
4.495605
0.1795666
28.35598
4.955072
-6.450674
0.2633739
4.526386
0.1838145
28.58401
4.818706
-6.392392
0.2623659
4.555973
0.1961984
28.80331
5.501836
-6.334239
0.254806
4.585245
0.2010224
29.01268
5.177623
-6.275738
0.250198
4.612536
0.2126863
29.21357
5.185831
-6.216821
0.249118
4.639252
0.2164303
29.40819
5.188207
-6.156502
0.2439341
4.664997
0.2185902
29.59886
5.241702
-6.09667
0.244438
4.690294
0.2172943
29.78528
5.238678
-6.037142
0.247822
4.715047
0.2260782
29.96624
5.491612
-5.976894
0.242998
4.739288
0.2343581
30.14491
5.994816
-5.916069
0.2424941
4.762145
0.2398301
30.31856
5.74469
-5.85408
0.2337101
4.786202
0.2390381
30.48928
5.469148
-5.791353
0.2360861
4.809719
0.2375981
30.65324
5.681907
-5.728601
0.2383181
4.832737
0.245518
30.81534
5.734034
-5.663696
0.2341421
4.856778
0.2651019
30.97694
6.040104
-5.598492
0.2300382
4.879269
0.25315
31.1353
6.083591
-5.532192
0.2244942
4.901359
0.2613579
31.29174
5.918929
-5.465605
0.2316221
4.92318
0.251206
31.44417
6.029952
-5.39849
0.2256462
4.94615
0.2581899
31.59501
5.762042
-5.329932
0.2190222
4.968233
0.2656779
31.74318
5.902081
-5.260994
0.2167183
4.989525
0.2892217
31.89066
6.19195
-5.191011
0.2154223
5.010778
0.2807257
32.03699
5.821514
-5.118742
0.2093743
5.03201
0.2717978
32.18179
5.828425
-5.045451
0.2167183
5.053206
0.2843257
32.3255
6.124991
-4.970424
0.2127583
5.075156
0.2890057
32.46474
5.859097
-4.89443
0.2030384
5.097106
0.2945496
32.6003
5.941248
-4.816654
0.2057023
5.118546
0.2958456
32.73306
6.27691
-4.737035
0.1994384
5.139728
0.3061416
32.86682
6.052055
-4.653899
0.1958384
5.160793
0.2973576
32.99967
6.056304
-4.568844
0.1869825
5.181571
0.3096695
33.13105
6.030816
-4.48048
0.1851105
5.202572
0.3103895
33.26046
6.361797
-4.389711
0.1865505
5.223269
0.3119015
33.38975
6.335301
-4.297775
0.1823745
5.244416
0.3106775
33.51732
6.98812
-4.203734
0.1713586
5.265727
0.3224134
33.64527
7.226726
-4.104731
0.1598387
5.286973
0.3175175
33.77409
7.419181
-4.001351
0.1553028
5.308589
0.3226294
33.90089
7.593635
-3.894911
0.1534308
5.330294
0.3184535
34.02669
6.837281
-3.785715
0.1425589
5.352078
0.3387573
34.15512
7.821082
-3.673022
0.1463028
5.374186
0.3409893
34.28484
8.002736
-3.556906
0.1358629
5.39743
0.3520052
34.41338
7.655123
-3.435504
0.128879
5.420108
0.3474692
34.54046
7.844265
-3.308465
0.124991
5.443536
0.3317733
34.67286
7.512564
-3.174662
0.1106631
5.467858
0.3373173
34.80373
7.810138
-3.029761
0.1118151
5.491167
0.3439412
34.93914
7.918137
-2.87536
9.50E-02
5.516249
0.3493412
35.07925
7.157823
-2.710735
9.80E-02
5.541389
0.3409173
35.22139
7.159263
-2.5352
8.82E-02
5.568638
0.3367413
35.36711
7.327526
-2.347525
8.19E-02
5.595792
0.3551012
35.51657
7.147959
-2.137582
7.94E-02
5.624735
0.3453812
35.67099
7.039888
-1.906204
8.24E-02
5.655556
0.3349413
35.83314
7.702498
-1.649042
6.60E-02
5.688136
0.3270934
36.00551
8.201383
-1.364113
5.87E-02
5.723677
0.3436533
36.18929
7.940888
-1.041062
4.58E-02
5.761058
0.3364533
36.3842
8.736914
-0.6606696
3.87E-02
5.802956
0.3477572
36.59587
8.830585
-0.2056512
4.25E-02
5.850451
0.3519332
36.8303
9.050615
0.340787
3.12E-02
5.903475
0.3346533
37.08374
8.540212
0.9821938
3.31E-02
5.966469
0.3286054
37.37586
8.143063
1.820508
3.36E-02
6.046736
0.3209014
37.72516
6.654907
2.967642
2.99E-02
6.158642
0.3057815
38.18718
8.321478
4.688599
3.41E-02
PW_freq
1.842533
2.127605
2.328342
2.51813
2.676159
2.802269
2.906087
2.993038
3.071194
3.144625
3.214805
3.281943
3.344544
3.404117
3.459456
3.513863
3.567114
3.619709
3.671341
3.721243
3.771221
3.81948
3.866156
3.910916
3.953931
3.995625
4.034835
4.071892
4.109172
4.14597
4.183828
4.221979
4.258566
4.294291
4.328648
4.36353
4.396873
4.430677
4.463495
4.495605
4.526386
4.555973
4.585245
4.612536
4.639252
4.664997
4.690294
4.715047
4.739288
4.762145
4.786202
4.809719
4.832737
4.856778
4.879269
4.901359
4.92318
4.94615
4.968233
4.989525
5.010778
5.03201
5.053206
5.075156
5.097106
5.118546
5.139728
5.160793
5.181571
5.202572
5.223269
5.244416
5.265727
5.286973
5.308589
5.330294
5.352078
5.374186
5.39743
5.420108
5.443536
5.467858
5.491167
5.516249
5.541389
5.568638
5.595792
5.624735
5.655556
5.688136
5.723677
5.761058
5.802956
5.850451
5.903475
5.966469
6.046736
6.158642
0.028511772
0.034199726
0.025271798
0.017855857
0.028367773
0.037151702
0.044927642
0.052847575
0.044855639
0.044855639
0.054215565
0.052775577
0.058391534
0.060407516
0.063935488
0.065375477
0.070847437
0.080423355
0.078479372
0.081719346
0.087119304
0.090719275
0.095183238
0.099575207
0.1113111
0.1018792
0.1139031
0.122615
0.126287
0.1360069
0.1441429
0.1517748
0.1547988
0.1566707
0.1596227
0.1519188
0.1621427
0.1694146
0.1717186
0.1795666
0.1838145
0.1961984
0.2010224
0.2126863
0.2164303
0.2185902
0.2172943
0.2260782
0.2343581
0.2398301
0.2390381
0.2375981
0.245518
0.2651019
0.25315
0.2613579
0.251206
0.2581899
0.2656779
0.2892217
0.2807257
0.2717978
0.2843257
0.2890057
0.2945496
0.2958456
0.3061416
0.2973576
0.3096695
0.3103895
0.3119015
0.3106775
0.3224134
0.3175175
0.3226294
0.3184535
0.3387573
0.3409893
0.3520052
0.3474692
0.3317733
0.3373173
0.3439412
0.3493412
0.3409173
0.3367413
0.3551012
0.3453812
0.3349413
0.3270934
0.3436533
0.3364533
0.3477572
0.3519332
0.3346533
0.3286054
0.3209014
0.3057815
KI_Mean
-8.063673
-2.835516
0.546791
2.997749
5.04506
6.85183
8.4942
10.02051
11.44279
12.75429
13.92952
14.99213
15.91371
16.73353
17.48608
18.1885
18.85697
19.48948
20.09225
20.69587
21.27828
21.83355
22.35901
22.85449
23.32565
23.78112
24.21951
24.64052
25.03689
25.41142
25.76403
26.10143
26.42937
26.75058
27.0514
27.33452
27.60814
27.87212
28.11801
28.35598
28.58401
28.80331
29.01268
29.21357
29.40819
29.59886
29.78528
29.96624
30.14491
30.31856
30.48928
30.65324
30.81534
30.97694
31.1353
31.29174
31.44417
31.59501
31.74318
31.89066
32.03699
32.18179
32.3255
32.46474
32.6003
32.73306
32.86682
32.99967
33.13105
33.26046
33.38975
33.51732
33.64527
33.77409
33.90089
34.02669
34.15512
34.28484
34.41338
34.54046
34.67286
34.80373
34.93914
35.07925
35.22139
35.36711
35.51657
35.67099
35.83314
36.00551
36.18929
36.3842
36.59587
36.8303
37.08374
37.37586
37.72516
38.18718
1.016704
0.3255814
0.2656059
0.2001584
0.2260062
0.2324141
0.4522284
0.4447404
0.49658
0.4189647
0.5429476
0.7620419
0.8925769
0.9710562
1.145079
1.646987
1.683923
2.014544
2.074447
2.432213
2.191231
2.083159
2.190871
2.409173
2.568867
3.0504
2.97156
3.429116
3.721434
3.652027
3.28987
4.07452
4.076679
3.580675
4.176111
4.72345
4.697314
4.769962
4.660883
4.955072
4.818706
5.501836
5.177623
5.185831
5.188207
5.241702
5.238678
5.491612
5.994816
5.74469
5.469148
5.681907
5.734034
6.040104
6.083591
5.918929
6.029952
5.762042
5.902081
6.19195
5.821514
5.828425
6.124991
5.859097
5.941248
6.27691
6.052055
6.056304
6.030816
6.361797
6.335301
6.98812
7.226726
7.419181
7.593635
6.837281
7.821082
8.002736
7.655123
7.844265
7.512564
7.810138
7.918137
7.157823
7.159263
7.327526
7.147959
7.039888
7.702498
8.201383
7.940888
8.736914
8.830585
9.050615
8.540212
8.143063
6.654907
8.321478
BLI_freq
-10.54047
-10.06573
-9.745032
-9.497192
-9.295535
-9.124167
-8.972519
-8.838746
-8.714912
-8.597766
-8.488699
-8.385844
-8.28849
-8.196143
-8.108125
-8.022444
-7.940507
-7.862792
-7.787355
-7.713038
-7.640923
-7.570269
-7.500986
-7.432957
-7.366651
-7.300976
-7.237081
-7.172779
-7.110784
-7.048006
-6.986724
-6.925626
-6.864472
-6.804246
-6.744633
-6.685432
-6.62663
-6.568094
-6.509382
-6.450674
-6.392392
-6.334239
-6.275738
-6.216821
-6.156502
-6.09667
-6.037142
-5.976894
-5.916069
-5.85408
-5.791353
-5.728601
-5.663696
-5.598492
-5.532192
-5.465605
-5.39849
-5.329932
-5.260994
-5.191011
-5.118742
-5.045451
-4.970424
-4.89443
-4.816654
-4.737035
-4.653899
-4.568844
-4.48048
-4.389711
-4.297775
-4.203734
-4.104731
-4.001351
-3.894911
-3.785715
-3.673022
-3.556906
-3.435504
-3.308465
-3.174662
-3.029761
-2.87536
-2.710735
-2.5352
-2.347525
-2.137582
-1.906204
-1.649042
-1.364113
-1.041062
-0.6606696
-0.2056512
0.340787
0.9821938
1.820508
2.967642
4.688599
Frequency of One or More Flashes vs. Best Lifted Index 1800-2059 UTC period
0.2651739
0.2743178
0.2752538
0.2859097
0.2900137
0.2922457
0.3041976
0.2978616
0.3010296
0.2989416
0.2977896
0.2953416
0.2921737
0.2918857
0.2846137
0.2877817
0.2820937
0.2807977
0.2872777
0.2777738
0.2902297
0.2883577
0.2871337
0.2889337
0.2885017
0.2793578
0.2789258
0.2837497
0.2779898
0.2823817
0.2820217
0.2808698
0.2733818
0.2807977
0.2785658
0.2727338
0.2677658
0.2610699
0.2693498
0.2633739
0.2623659
0.254806
0.250198
0.249118
0.2439341
0.244438
0.247822
0.242998
0.2424941
0.2337101
0.2360861
0.2383181
0.2341421
0.2300382
0.2244942
0.2316221
0.2256462
0.2190222
0.2167183
0.2154223
0.2093743
0.2167183
0.2127583
0.2030384
0.2057023
0.1994384
0.1958384
0.1869825
0.1851105
0.1865505
0.1823745
0.1713586
0.1598387
0.1553028
0.1534308
0.1425589
0.1463028
0.1358629
0.128879
0.124991
0.1106631
0.1118151
0.094967239
0.097991213
0.088199295
0.081935346
0.079415366
0.082367338
0.066023469
0.058679532
0.045791633
0.038735691
0.04247966
0.031175751
0.033119734
0.033623733
0.029879762
0.034127727
MeanU3
-10.15
-6.413
-5.415
-4.789
-4.33
-3.981
-3.655
-3.334
-3.033
-2.772
-2.506
-2.264
-2.026
-1.76
-1.516
-1.276
-1.057
-0.8572
-0.6564
-0.4503
-0.2531
0.05246
0.1318
0.3145
0.5147
0.7352
0.9589
1.162
1.362
1.583
1.805
2.007
2.23
2.472
2.713
2.936
3.175
3.439
3.7
3.983
4.259
4.543
4.869
5.244
5.677
6.093
6.577
7.172
7.987
10.14
PW
0.08898
0.0859
0.09113
0.1028
0.135
0.1389
0.1541
0.1571
0.1656
0.174
0.1643
0.2076
0.2137
0.2316
0.2542
0.2496
0.2625
0.2591
0.2682
0.2666
0.2772
0.2856
0.3094
0.3091
0.3028
0.3037
0.3138
0.3117
0.3124
0.3384
0.3329
0.3175
0.3435
0.3492
0.34
0.3239
0.3188
0.3653
0.3787
0.3133
0.2836
0.2827
0.2687
0.2351
0.2109
0.2145
0.2389
0.211
0.1704
0.1527
Sheet1
PW
freq
KI
Mean
BestLI
freq
BestLI
Mean
1.842533
2.85E-02
-8.063673
1.016704
-10.54047
0.2651739
-10.54047
7.948448
2.127605
3.42E-02
-2.835516
0.3255814
-10.06573
0.2743178
-10.06573
7.833969
2.328342
2.53E-02
0.546791
0.2656059
-9.745032
0.2752538
-9.745032
7.394413
2.51813
1.79E-02
2.997749
0.2001584
-9.497192
0.2859097
-9.497192
7.770466
2.676159
2.84E-02
5.04506
0.2260062
-9.295535
0.2900137
-9.295535
7.567716
2.802269
3.72E-02
6.85183
0.2324141
-9.124167
0.2922457
-9.124167
8.048816
2.906087
4.49E-02
8.4942
0.4522284
-8.972519
0.3041976
-8.972519
8.172583
2.993038
5.28E-02
10.02051
0.4447404
-8.838746
0.2978616
-8.838746
7.990784
3.071194
4.49E-02
11.44279
0.49658
-8.714912
0.3010296
-8.714912
8.329541
3.144625
4.49E-02
12.75429
0.4189647
-8.597766
0.2989416
-8.597766
8.423069
3.214805
5.42E-02
13.92952
0.5429476
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2.967642
4.688599
Frequency of One or More Flashes vs. Best Lifted Index 1800-2059 UTC period
0.2651739
0.2743178
0.2752538
0.2859097
0.2900137
0.2922457
0.3041976
0.2978616
0.3010296
0.2989416
0.2977896
0.2953416
0.2921737
0.2918857
0.2846137
0.2877817
0.2820937
0.2807977
0.2872777
0.2777738
0.2902297
0.2883577
0.2871337
0.2889337
0.2885017
0.2793578
0.2789258
0.2837497
0.2779898
0.2823817
0.2820217
0.2808698
0.2733818
0.2807977
0.2785658
0.2727338
0.2677658
0.2610699
0.2693498
0.2633739
0.2623659
0.254806
0.250198
0.249118
0.2439341
0.244438
0.247822
0.242998
0.2424941
0.2337101
0.2360861
0.2383181
0.2341421
0.2300382
0.2244942
0.2316221
0.2256462
0.2190222
0.2167183
0.2154223
0.2093743
0.2167183
0.2127583
0.2030384
0.2057023
0.1994384
0.1958384
0.1869825
0.1851105
0.1865505
0.1823745
0.1713586
0.1598387
0.1553028
0.1534308
0.1425589
0.1463028
0.1358629
0.128879
0.124991
0.1106631
0.1118151
0.094967239
0.097991213
0.088199295
0.081935346
0.079415366
0.082367338
0.066023469
0.058679532
0.045791633
0.038735691
0.04247966
0.031175751
0.033119734
0.033623733
0.029879762
0.034127727
BLI_Mean
-10.54047
-10.06573
-9.745032
-9.497192
-9.295535
-9.124167
-8.972519
-8.838746
-8.714912
-8.597766
-8.488699
-8.385844
-8.28849
-8.196143
-8.108125
-8.022444
-7.940507
-7.862792
-7.787355
-7.713038
-7.640923
-7.570269
-7.500986
-7.432957
-7.366651
-7.300976
-7.237081
-7.172779
-7.110784
-7.048006
-6.986724
-6.925626
-6.864472
-6.804246
-6.744633
-6.685432
-6.62663
-6.568094
-6.509382
-6.450674
-6.392392
-6.334239
-6.275738
-6.216821
-6.156502
-6.09667
-6.037142
-5.976894
-5.916069
-5.85408
-5.791353
-5.728601
-5.663696
-5.598492
-5.532192
-5.465605
-5.39849
-5.329932
-5.260994
-5.191011
-5.118742
-5.045451
-4.970424
-4.89443
-4.816654
-4.737035
-4.653899
-4.568844
-4.48048
-4.389711
-4.297775
-4.203734
-4.104731
-4.001351
-3.894911
-3.785715
-3.673022
-3.556906
-3.435504
-3.308465
-3.174662
-3.029761
-2.87536
-2.710735
-2.5352
-2.347525
-2.137582
-1.906204
-1.649042
-1.364113
-1.041062
-0.6606696
-0.2056512
0.340787
0.9821938
1.820508
2.967642
4.688599
Best Lifted Index (deg C)
Unconditional Mean No. of Flashes
Unconditional Mean Number of Flashes vs. Best Lifted Index 1800-2059 UTC period
7.948448
7.833969
7.394413
7.770466
7.567716
8.048816
8.172583
7.990784
8.329541
8.423069
8.033696
8.664483
8.598531
7.859745
7.726474
7.20491
7.111455
7.677947
7.476564
6.896969
7.100871
6.641443
6.926416
7.473756
6.496724
6.530852
6.354309
6.634099
6.853625
6.819642
6.854273
6.794946
6.658723
6.560875
6.641947
6.820362
6.19051
6.013824
6.03672
6.100007
6.027144
6.291094
5.740586
5.536324
5.456044
5.187559
5.530852
5.053999
5.406149
5.111383
5.437469
5.338253
4.880913
5.076751
4.927928
5.175319
4.750954
4.42098
4.406437
4.136007
4.274174
4.48902
4.072288
3.600475
3.845273
3.990136
3.642019
3.583555
3.46994
3.54338
3.501476
3.327525
2.874937
2.652171
2.887897
2.440708
2.503276
2.138239
2.335949
2.29095
2.461012
1.966592
1.626611
1.577291
1.47714
1.436821
1.327813
1.105119
0.9577363
0.9125927
0.7066743
0.5532436
0.744114
0.5427316
0.3946289
0.3685651
0.4622363
0.5220678
MeanU3
-10.15
-6.413
-5.415
-4.789
-4.33
-3.981
-3.655
-3.334
-3.033
-2.772
-2.506
-2.264
-2.026
-1.76
-1.516
-1.276
-1.057
-0.8572
-0.6564
-0.4503
-0.2531
0.05246
0.1318
0.3145
0.5147
0.7352
0.9589
1.162
1.362
1.583
1.805
2.007
2.23
2.472
2.713
2.936
3.175
3.439
3.7
3.983
4.259
4.543
4.869
5.244
5.677
6.093
6.577
7.172
7.987
10.14
PW
0.08898
0.0859
0.09113
0.1028
0.135
0.1389
0.1541
0.1571
0.1656
0.174
0.1643
0.2076
0.2137
0.2316
0.2542
0.2496
0.2625
0.2591
0.2682
0.2666
0.2772
0.2856
0.3094
0.3091
0.3028
0.3037
0.3138
0.3117
0.3124
0.3384
0.3329
0.3175
0.3435
0.3492
0.34
0.3239
0.3188
0.3653
0.3787
0.3133
0.2836
0.2827
0.2687
0.2351
0.2109
0.2145
0.2389
0.211
0.1704
0.1527
Near surface (1000 hPa) forcing
Near Surface Forcing
Low-level moisture flux convergence due to the sea breeze, lake/river breezes, outflows, etc.
Weak non-linear effect--lightning that occurs in divergent stratiform regions.
Sheet1
PW
freq
KI
Mean
BestLI
freq
BestLI
Mean
Mflux
freq
1.842533
2.85E-02
-8.063673
1.016704
-10.54047
0.2651739
-10.54047
7.948448
-7.034728
0.2574206
2.127605
3.42E-02
-2.835516
0.3255814
-10.06573
0.2743178
-10.06573
7.833969
-5.98907
0.2353244
2.328342
2.53E-02
0.546791
0.2656059
-9.745032
0.2752538
-9.745032
7.394413
-5.309973
0.2232452
2.51813
1.79E-02
2.997749
0.2001584
-9.497192
0.2859097
-9.497192
7.770466
-4.810739
0.2152169
2.676159
2.84E-02
5.04506
0.2260062
-9.295535
0.2900137
-9.295535
7.567716
-4.422067
0.2088827
2.802269
3.72E-02
6.85183
0.2324141
-9.124167
0.2922457
-9.124167
8.048816
-4.090292
0.2082198
2.906087
4.49E-02
8.4942
0.4522284
-8.972519
0.3041976
-8.972519
8.172583
-3.806209
0.2073359
2.993038
5.28E-02
10.02051
0.4447404
-8.838746
0.2978616
-8.838746
7.990784
-3.560698
0.1954776
3.071194
4.49E-02
11.44279
0.49658
-8.714912
0.3010296
-8.714912
8.329541
-3.332401
0.1976136
3.144625
4.49E-02
12.75429
0.4189647
-8.597766
0.2989416
-8.597766
8.423069
-3.129528
0.2004861
3.214805
5.42E-02
13.92952
0.5429476
-8.488699
0.2977896
-8.488699
8.033696
-2.94294
0.1891434
3.281943
5.28E-02
14.99213
0.7620419
-8.385844
0.2953416
-8.385844
8.664483
-2.758113
0.1884069
3.344544
5.84E-02
15.91371
0.8925769
-8.28849
0.2921737
-8.28849
8.598531
-2.604346
0.1883332
3.404117
6.04E-02
16.73353
0.9710562
-8.196143
0.2918857
-8.196143
7.859745
-2.450858
0.1866392
3.459456
6.39E-02
17.48608
1.145079
-8.108125
0.2846137
-8.108125
7.726474
-2.316484
0.1831038
3.513863
6.54E-02
18.1885
1.646987
-8.022444
0.2877817
-8.022444
7.20491
-2.169375
0.1710982
3.567114
7.08E-02
18.85697
1.683923
-7.940507
0.2820937
-7.940507
7.111455
-2.048553
0.1891434
3.619709
8.04E-02
19.48948
2.014544
-7.862792
0.2807977
-7.862792
7.677947
-1.929653
0.1727922
3.671341
7.85E-02
20.09225
2.074447
-7.787355
0.2872777
-7.787355
7.476564
-1.813287
0.1730132
3.721243
8.17E-02
20.69587
2.432213
-7.713038
0.2777738
-7.713038
6.896969
-1.69371
0.1675628
3.771221
8.71E-02
21.27828
2.191231
-7.640923
0.2902297
-7.640923
7.100871
-1.584142
0.1797157
3.81948
9.07E-02
21.83355
2.083159
-7.570269
0.2883577
-7.570269
6.641443
-1.479171
0.1817044
3.866156
9.52E-02
22.35901
2.190871
-7.500986
0.2871337
-7.500986
6.926416
-1.378265
0.1756647
3.910916
9.96E-02
22.85449
2.409173
-7.432957
0.2889337
-7.432957
7.473756
-1.279104
0.1789792
3.953931
0.1113111
23.32565
2.568867
-7.366651
0.2885017
-7.366651
6.496724
-1.182463
0.1852397
3.995625
0.1018792
23.78112
3.0504

Dept. of Meteorology Developing Gridded Forecast Guidance for Warm Season Lightning over Florida...

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Transcript of Dept. of Meteorology Developing Gridded Forecast Guidance for Warm Season Lightning over Florida...