DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICSDEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS Working Paper UNIVERSITY OF MASSACHUSETTS AMHERST...
Transcript of DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICSDEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS Working Paper UNIVERSITY OF MASSACHUSETTS AMHERST...
DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS
Working Paper
UNIVERSITY OF MASSACHUSETTS AMHERST
UMass Amherst Economics Papers
Partisanship and local fiscal policy: evidence from Brazilian cities
Raphael Gouvea Daniele Girardi
Working Paper 2019-06
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β = limml↓0
E[y|ml]− limml↑0
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-2
0
2
4
6
Spen
ding
per
cap
ita
-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50
Left margin of victory
Local averagesFitted
U�V aT2M/BM; T2` +�TBi�
-2
-1
0
1
2
Spen
ding
(% o
f GDP
)
-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50
Left margin of victory
Local averagesFitted
U#V aT2M/BM; UW Q7 :.SV
-2
0
2
4
6
Reve
nues
per
cap
ita
-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50
Left margin of victory
Local averagesFitted
U+V _2p2Mm2b T2` +�TBi�
-2
-1
0
1
2
Reve
nues
(% o
f GDP
)
-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50
Left margin of victory
Local averagesFitted
U/V _2p2Mm2b UW Q7 :.SV
1tT2M/Bim`2b +QKTQbBiBQM Ub?�`2bV
-1.5
-1
-.5
0
.5
1
Curre
nt e
xpen
ditu
re s
hare
-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50
Left margin of victory
Local averagesFitted
U2V *m``2Mi 2tT2M/Bim`2b
-1
-.5
0
.5
1
Publ
ic in
vest
men
t sha
re
-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50
Left margin of victory
Local averagesFitted
U7V AMp2biK2Mi
-1
-.5
0
.5
1
Pers
onne
l sha
re
-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50
Left margin of victory
Local averagesFitted
U;V S2`bQMM2H
-1
-.5
0
.5
1
Soci
al e
xpen
ditu
res
shar
e
-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50
Left margin of victory
Local averagesFitted
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ky
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-4
-2
0
2
4
Soci
al e
xpen
ditu
res
p.c.
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Left margin of victory
Local averagesFitted
-1
-.5
0
.5
Soci
al e
xpen
ditu
res
shar
e
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20
Left margin of victory
Local averagesFitted
ǵG�K2@/m+FbǶ bm#b�KTH2
-5
0
5
10
Soci
al e
xpen
ditu
res
p.c.
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20
Left margin of victory
Local averagesFitted
-2
-1
0
1
2
Soci
al e
xpen
ditu
res
shar
e
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20
Left margin of victory
Local averagesFitted
ǵPBH@rBM/7�HHbǶ bm#b�KTH2
-10
-5
0
5
10
Soci
al e
xpen
ditu
res
p.c.
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20
Left margin of victory
Local averagesFitted
-4
-2
0
2
4
Soci
al e
xpen
ditu
res
shar
e
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20
Left margin of victory
Local averagesFitted
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-20
24
68
Socia
l exp
endi
ture
sha
re
Term average 1st 2nd 3rd 4thYear in Office
Baseline Lame ducks subsample Oil windfall subsample
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0
5
10
15
Perc
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0.0
05.0
1.0
15.0
2.0
25
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40Left margin of victory
point estimate 95% C.I.
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LQi2b, 1biBK�i2b 7`QK Qm` #�b2HBM2 _. bT2+B}+�iBQM U2[m�iBQM kV- mbBM; i?2 #B�b@+Q``2+i2/ T`Q+2/m`2 Q7 *�HQMB+Q2i �HX UkyR9V �M/ +QMi`QHHBM; 7Q` +Biv �M/ v2�` }t2/ 2z2+ibX Pmi+QK2b K2�bm`2/ �b 9@v2�` �p2`�;2b Qp2` � K�vQ`�Hi2`KX _Q#mbi �M/ #B�b@+Q``2+i2/ bi�M/�`/ 2``Q`b +Hmbi2`2/ #v KmMB+BT�HBiv BM T�`2Mi?2bBbX
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�TT2M/Bt 6 SH�+2#Q 2t2`+Bb2 #v bm#b�KTH2b
6B;m`2 6XR, 6�HbB}+�iBQM i2bi mbBM; TH�+2#Q i?`2b?QH/b @ 2z2+i QM bQ+B�H 2tT2M/Bim`2 b?�`2
0
5
10
15
Perc
ent
-4 -2 0 2 4t-stats from placebo thresholds
U�V PBH@rBM/7�HH `2+2Bp2`b
0
5
10
15
20
25
Perc
ent
-4 -2 0 2 4t-stats from placebo thresholds
U#V G�K2 .m+Fb
0
5
10
15
Perc
ent
-4 -2 0 2 4t-stats from placebo thresholds
U+V hB2#Qmi +QKT2iBiBQM < K2/B�M
0
5
10
15
20
Perc
ent
-2 -1 0 1 2 3t-stats from placebo thresholds
U/V hB2#Qmi +QKT2iBiBQM < k8i? T+i
LQi2b, 1KTB`B+�H /Bbi`B#miBQM Q7 i@bi�iBbiB+b 7`QK Qm` _. 2biBK�i2b U2[m�iBQM kV Q7 i?2 2z2+i Q7 � H27i@rBM; K�vQ` QM
i?2 b?�`2 Q7 bQ+B�H bT2M/BM;- #�b2/ QM kyy `�M/QKHv@/`�rM TH�+2#Q i?`2b?QH/b- /`�rM b2T�`�i2Hv QM i?2 H27i �M/ QM
i?2 `B;?i bB/2 Q7 i?2 i`m2 i?`2b?QH/ URyy QM 2�+? bB/2V- mbBM; QMHv Q#b2`p�iBQMb #2HQM;BM; iQ i?�i bB/2 �M/ rBi? �i H2�bi
k8 Q#b2`p�iBQMb QM 2�+? bB/2 Q7 i?2 #�M/rB/i?X o2`iB+�H HBM2 4 i@bi�iBbiB+b Q#i�BM2/ mbBM; i?2 i`m2 i?`2b?QH/X h?2
i@bi�iBbiB+b �`2 7`QK i?2 `Q#mbi #B�b@+Q``2+i2/ T`Q+2/m`2 Q7 *�HQMB+Q 2i �HX UkyR9VX
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