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Dendrochronological Dating of Eastern Red Cedar (Juniperus virginiana L.) Logs from Alfred’s Cabin, The Hermitage, Home of

President Andrew Jackson

Daniel B. Lewis1

Whitney L. Kocis1

Henri D. Grissino-Mayer1

and Edward R. Cook2

1 Laboratory of Tree-Ring Science Department of Geography 1000 Phillip Fulmer Way

The University of Tennessee Knoxville, Tennessee 37996-0925

2 Tree-Ring Laboratory

Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Columbia University

P.O Box 1000 61 Route 9W

Palisades, New York 10964-1000

Final Report Submitted to:

Robbie D. Jones Director of Preservation

The Ladies’ Hermitage Association 4580 Rachel’s Lane

Hermitage, Tennessee 37076-1344

February 17, 2006

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Abstract ........................................................................................................................................ 1

Introduction.................................................................................................................................. 1

Methods........................................................................................................................................ 3

Field Methods ......................................................................................................................... 3

Lab Methods............................................................................................................................ 4

Crossdating ............................................................................................................................. 5

Results.......................................................................................................................................... 6

Descriptive Statistics............................................................................................................... 6

Crossdating ............................................................................................................................. 6

Discussion.................................................................................................................................... 7

Crossdating ............................................................................................................................. 7

Undated/Unused Samples ....................................................................................................... 8

Outermost Dates ..................................................................................................................... 8

Conclusions.................................................................................................................................. 9

Acknowledgements...................................................................................................................... 9

References.................................................................................................................................... 9

Figure 1: Alfred Jackson shown sitting in his log home..............................................................12

Figure 2: Alfred’s Cabin, located behind the main mansion .......................................................13

Figure 3: Sketch of Alfred’s cabin showing sampling design ....................................................14

Figure 4: Picture of sample extraction from Alfred’s cabin .......................................................15

Figure 5: Sample core extracted from Alfred’s cabin.................................................................16

Figure 6: Graph of the Hermitage and Norris Basin chronologies .............................................16

Figure 7: Sample core extracted from Alfred’s cabin.................................................................16

Appendix 1: Tree-ring measurements..........................................................................................17

Appendix 2: COFECHA output for Alfred’s Cabin cores...........................................................23

Appendix 3: COFECHA output for Norris Dam eastern red cedar cores....................................36

Tree-Ring Dating of Alfred’s Cabin

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Abstract

In October 2005, nearly 100 core samples were extracted from logs used to construct

Alfred’s Cabin at Andrew Jackson’s Hermitage plantation. Of these, 39 samples were used to

develop a master tree-ring chronology for the cabin. Crossdating of the Alfred’s Cabin

chronology was accomplished using an eastern red cedar chronology developed by the Lamont-

Doherty Earth Observatory Tree-Ring Laboratory at Columbia University in Palisades, New

York. The oldest portions of this reference chronology consisted of eastern red cedar samples

that had been collected by the eminent archaeologist Dr. Florence Hawley in the 1930s from the

Norris Basin in east Tennessee, prior to flooding by the Tennessee Valley Authority. The 39

series from Alfred’s Cabin resulted in a high-quality master tree-ring chronology, with a series

intercorrelation of 0.66 that was absolutely dated from 1749 to 1842. This indicates that the final

construction of Alfred’s Cabin was completed in 1843 (or soon thereafter).

Introduction

In the Southeastern United States, dendrochronological techniques have been used to

determine construction dates for a number of historical structures (Bowers and Grashot 1976;

Stahle 1976; Bortolot et al. 2001; Mann 2002; Reding 2002; Wight and Grissino-Mayer 2004;

Grissino-Mayer and van de Gevel 2006). Dendroarchaeological techniques have previously been

applied to date structures in the southwestern United States, but it was only recently that this

work has been applied extensively in the Southeast. However, these techniques are rapidly

becoming the preferred method of absolute dating of structures in the Southeast, as the need

exists to authenticate and verify the construction dates of historic structures in the region

(Rosman 2005; Bannatyne 2005; Grissino-Mayer and van de Gevel 2006).

In 2005, the Ladies’ Hermitage Association, a nonprofit 501(c)3 organization that

operates The Hermitage on behalf of the State of Tennessee for the American people,

commissioned this study by the University of Tennessee at Knoxville. This study seeks to

determine the year(s) of construction for Alfred’s Cabin at The Hermitage, the plantation home

of President Andrew Jackson, located just outside Nashville, Tennessee. Past research was

unable to confirm an absolute date of construction for the cabin, with two ages being possible:

(1) the cabin was an Antebellum Period slave cabin, i.e. built prior to the Civil War, or (2) the

cabin was a post-Civil War freedman’s cabin, likely built in the 1860s to 1870s.


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Obtaining absolute construction dates for Alfred’s Cabin has great significance for

several reasons. First, the true date is of great importance to the African-American history of the

site. Second, few documented slave-built quarters exist in the southeastern United States that

have been dated using dendrochronological techniques. The Hermitage itself houses these few

known cabins. Finally, obtaining absolute dates for the cabin will help guide future restoration

work by personnel of The Hermitage. With this in mind, the Laboratory of Tree-Ring Science set

out to provide The Hermitage with the true construction date of Alfred’s Cabin.

The Hermitage, Home of President Andrew Jackson, is located approximately 15 miles

(23 kilometers) east of Nashville, Tennessee, in the Hermitage community. Jackson’s plantation

was approximately 1,000 acres (ca. 400 hectares) in size at its height, with many slaves making

up the work force. According to The Hermitage’s Director of Preservation Robbie Jones,

approximately 10 slave cabins have been documented that are either standing or once stood at

The Hermitage plantation in the 1820s to 1840s. During this period, these 10 slave cabins housed

approximately 22 slave families or between 132 to 176 slaves, considering the average slave

family contained 6 to 8 people. This fits perfectly with the fact that Jackson owned

approximately 150 slaves in the 1840s. One of these slaves, Alfred Jackson, is the primary focus

of this study (Figure 1). Alfred was born in the First Hermitage kitchen slave cabin around 1810.

After emancipation, he stayed at The Hermitage, eventually working for The Hermitage as a tour

guide and interpreter of the Jackson property in the 1890s. Alfred lived his entire life on The

Hermitage and died in 1901. He was buried alongside the tomb of President Jackson and

Jackson’s wife Rachel.

Alfred’s Cabin is a 19th century vernacular, double-pen log cabin located in the mansion

backyard area (Figure 2). The cabin was recognized as a National Historic Landmark in 1960

and was listed on the National Register of Historic Places in 1966. Recent research at Alfred’s

Cabin involved archaeology in 1994, construction analyses in 1995 and again in 1999–2000,

finish analysis in 1999–2000, a historic buildings survey conducted by the National Park Service

in 1999, and a cultural resource inventory in 2002–2003. While these studies were of great

importance, the true age of Alfred’s Cabin could never be confirmed.

While this study will be the first dendrochronological study of Alfred’s Cabin, it is not

the first dendrochronological study conducted at The Hermitage. In 1976, Bowers and Grashot

conducted the First Hermitage Dendrochronology Study. The results of this study were


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inconclusive, but the study also represented the first attempt at dating a structure of historical

significance using dendrochronology anywhere in the Southeastern U.S. In 2001, The Hermitage

commissioned Dendrochronology, Inc., directed by Dr. Herman J. Heikkenen of Blacksburg,

Virginia, to date the original First Hermitage cabins. This study successfully dated the First

Hermitage farmhouse to 1798–1800, and the First Hermitage kitchen to 1805–1806 (Heikkenen

2001).

Methods

Field Methods

A team from the University of Tennessee’s Laboratory of Tree-Ring Science undertook

the sampling during two field trips in October 2005. The strategy was to take at least two cores

from each log that was known to be original to the cabin. All logs that were known to be

replacements were not sampled. The cabin was labeled according to cardinal directions, with the

west side being the “visitor’s side” and the south side being closest to the main house (Figure 3).

Because the structure was a double-pen cabin, each pen was assigned a number, the north side

being “AC1” and the south side being “AC2” (Figure 3). The logs were then numbered

sequentially starting with the bottom log and continuing up to the top log on each side of each

pen. By convention, cores extracted from the left side of the log (as one faces the log while

coring) were labeled as the “A” core while cores extracted from the right side of the log were

labeled “B” cores. Cores extracted from locations between the A and B cores were labeled “C”

and higher. For example, the core identification number “AC1W001A” would signify Alfred’s

Cabin pen 1 (north pen, “AC1”), west side (“W”), log 1 (“001,” bottom log), left side (“A”).

Increment cores were extracted from each end of the log (basal and distal) (Figure 4). The

extraction of at least two cores per log is desirable because (1) occasionally the ring patterns on

an individual core may be erratic due to internal defects, and (2) the averaging of measurements

obtained from two cores per tree reduces the intra-tree variability that naturally occurs. All

samples were extracted using a 0.5 inch (13 mm) dry wood borer developed by Forest Research

Tools, Inc. (http://www.forestresearchtools.com/). These borers consist of hollow bits with

serrated, offset teeth that attach to a standard 1/2 inch (ca. 13 mm) chuck common on variable

speed, high-amp hand drills, and are capable of extracting 10 inch (25 cm) long cores. Because

standard 3/8 inch (9 mm) hand drills do not have the power to drive these special drill bits, we


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used two Makita 1/2 inch, variable speed, 6.5 amp hand drills. The bits themselves are also

drilled at one inch (25 mm) intervals with exit holes to facilitate the removal of wood dust

created by the coring process. Build up of excess dust and debris inside the drill bit and inside

the hole itself could cause excess heat and possible scorching of the core sample. Once extracted

from the log, each core was glued on specially-designed wooden core mount (Custom

Woodworking in Jackson, Mississippi) using wood glue (wood glue is water soluble in case

remounting of cores is necessary). Each core was appropriately labeled on the side of the core

mount, and all relevant information of the log and core was recorded on standard sample forms.

Laboratory Methods

In the wood shop, each core was surfaced using progressively-finer sandpaper, beginning

with ANSI 40-grit (500–595μm) and progressing up to ANSI 400-grit (20.6–23.6μm) sanding

belts using a 4 x 24-inch belt sander (Orvis and Grissino-Mayer 2002). The samples must be

surfaced with precision (no scratch marks) so that the cellular structure of the tree rings is visible

under standard magnification (Figure 5). The quality of the final surface is especially important

for this study because eastern red cedar is susceptible to forming false rings (Butler and Walsh

1988), which must be identified to ensure the correct temporal placement of each annual growth

ring.

We then measured all tree-ring widths for each series using a moveable-stage Velmex

micrometer to the nearest 0.001 mm (Appendix 1) for statistical crossdating to the Norris Basin

master reference chronology, kindly supplied by Dr. Edward R. Cook of the Tree-Ring

Laboratory at Columbia University. The Norris Basin chronology was constructed from living

eastern red cedar trees collected by members of the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory at

Columbia University in 2003, and from living trees and remnant eastern red cedar samples

collected by Dr. Florence Hawley of the University of Chicago before the basin was flooded by

the Tennessee Valley Authority in 1937 (Hawley 1937, 1938, 1941). This master reference

chronology contains 47 dated series that span from 1378 to 2002, has an excellent series

intercorrelation of 0.49, and an average mean sensitivity of 0.30, which is very high by

Southeastern standards. Appendix 3 contains the statistical crossdating results for the Norris

Dam eastern red cedar master chronology.


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Crossdating

To begin the crossdating process, we created skeleton plots from cores that had the

clearest ring sequences. Skeleton plots rely on matching patterns of the narrower tree rings in one

series against plots of the other series to ensure correct relative temporal placement (Stokes and

Smiley 1968; Swetnam et al. 1985). This initial crossdating exercise provided the first hints that

the tree rings from these cores would crossdate against each other (termed “internal” crossdating)

as well as against the Norris Dam master chronology (termed “external” crossdating) to anchor

the chronology absolutely in time.

After all the series were measured, we confirmed the graphical crossdating and relative

placements of all tree-ring series using COFECHA, a quality-control program that uses

segmented time-series correlation techniques to statistically confirm the temporal placements of

all tree rings (Holmes 1983; Grissino-Mayer 2001). COFECHA begins by first removing all low-

frequency trends in each measured series using both spline-fitting algorithms and autoregressive

modeling (Grissino-Mayer 2001). These low-frequency trends are often spurious (i.e., due to

physiological aging processes within each individual tree) and can mask the climate signal

desirable for accurate crossdating. To accomplish the internal crossdating, we set COFECHA to

tests consecutive 40-yr segments (with 20-yr overlaps) for each individual series with a

temporary master chronology created from all other series. Crossdating is verified when the

correlation coefficient (also called an “r-value”) for each tested segment exceeds 0.37 (p < 0.01),

although coefficients are usually much higher (for example, r > 0.55, p < 0.0001).

To initially establish absolute crossdating with the Norris Basin master reference

chronology, we entered the reference chronology as a single dated series and then tested each of

the series from Alfred’s cabin, entering each one by one an as undated series. COFECHA

provided suggested dates for these undated series based on correlation coefficient analysis

against the anchored master dating chronologies. We stress that COFECHA is only a tool, and

whether or not a series is successfully dated is up to the dendrochronologist. All dates suggested

by COFECHA were visually inspected using the skeleton plots to ensure correct temporal

placement of all tree rings from all cores. We do not report dates for tree rings unless we are

confident of the graphical and statistical dating.

Initially, not all of the cores from Alfred’s Cabin dated successfully against the Norris

Basin master chronology, but such 100% success is never achieved in dendrochronology nor


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should it ever be expected. Still, enough cores showed statistically significant crossdating both

internally and externally to consider them anchored absolutely in time. We then took those dated

cores and used them to develop a baseline local reference chronology to eventually crossdate the

other undated cores from Alfred’s Cabin using the same techniques described above.

Results

One hundred core were extracted from Alfred’s Cabin. Ten cores were extracted from

AC1W, 14 from AC2W, 17 from AC1E, 15 from AC2E, 13 from AC1N, and 15 from AC2S.

Inside Pen 2, 10 samples were taken on both sides of the fireplace. One core sample was taken

from the roof in Pen 1 (AC1R004). All logs sampled were eastern red cedar (Juniperus

virginiana L.), except log AC1R, which is an unidentified oak (Quercus spp.) species.

Descriptive Statistics

The average mean sensitivity (a measure of variability in ring widths) was 0.28, which is

similar to the average mean sensitivity of the Norris Basin master chronology (0.30), and very

good for southeastern tree-ring chronologies (Appendix 2). The average series intercorrelation

for the cores from Alfred’s Cabin was 0.66, which is well above the minimum correlation of 0.40

often used to assess the quality of internal crossdating among series from a site. The lowest

series correlation was 0.48 (for core AC2S003C) while the highest was 0.86 (for core

AC1E006C). These statistics attest to the high quality of these eastern red cedar tree rings for

dendrochronological dating.

Crossdating

Several of the 39 dated cores from Alfred’s Cabin (AC1W006B, AC2W007A,

AC2W008C, AC2E004C, AC1E008B, AC2W007C, AC1N007A, AC1E006C, and AC2W008D)

showed statistically significant crossdating with the Norris Basin master chronology (Appendix

3), and were used to create a preliminary baseline chronology to help date the other cores

collected from Alfred’s Cabin. We also graphed the Norris Basin and Hermitage masters

together and evaluated the correlation value between the two chronologies (Figure 6).

Outermost (i.e., cutting or harvest dates) dates for the cores from Alfred’s Cabin ranged

from 1838 to 1842. These outermost dates reflect the last complete (full earlywood and full


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latewood) measurable ring for each core. The range of outermost dates occurred because the

outer rings on some cores were likely eroded away because of weathering over the years.

However, the majority of cores showed outer dates of 1841 and 1842. These dates suggest

cutting dates from fall of 1841 (around October, or the beginning of the dormant season after

the 1841 ring had completely formed) to the spring of 1843 (around March, or the end of the

dormant season after the last ring was formed in 1842). We point out, however, that partial

rings were present on the ends of some of these cores. Partial rings cannot be measured and

quantified as part of the master chronology because only complete rings can be measured and

analyzed. Furthermore, most of the cores that have an 1841 outermost date appear to have outer

surfaces that were eroded, suggesting possible cutting dates for these trees in later years (such as

1842 or 1843). On some cores, partial latewood for the year 1842 was visible. The cores that

show an outermost date of 1842 have clear outer surfaces, indicating a cutting date from fall of

1842 to spring of 1843.

Discussion

Crossdating

Although some correlation coefficients for certain series from Alfred’s Cabin were low

when compared to the Norris Basin master chronology, enough series showed substantial

crossdating to consider the cabin absolutely anchored in time. The 39 series included in the

Alfred’s Cabin master chronology have very high correlations with each other that otherwise

would not be possible if correct dating had not been established. Although trees growing in the

same geographic area are subject to similar climate patterns, certain stand disturbances (such as

wind throw or canopy gaps caused by individual tree mortality) may alter the growth patterns of

some trees, resulting in lower correlations when compared to the master chronology being used.

These effects can be inspected and often accounted for by visual investigation of the growth

patterns. Certain marker years (such as 1836, 1833, 1826, 1813, 1794, 1792, 1785, 1784, 1773,

and 1772) are all clearly present in both the Alfred’s Cabin cores and the Norris Basin master

chronology. Some dissimilarities were present between the two chronologies (such as the rings

for 1821, 1810, and 1774), but these are likely due to local fluctuations in climate patterns, and

do not override the clear signal between these two chronologies.


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Undated/Unused Samples

A number of cores taken from the cabin remain undated for various reasons. Eastern red

cedar has the propensity to develop very lobate growth forms where bark is included deep inside

the trunk, making ring patterns nearly impossible to analyze. Furthermore, eastern red cedar has

an extensive branching pattern and traces of former branches can often be encountered when

coring a log (Figure 7). These cores could not be measured and therefore were not used. Other

cores were broken into several pieces during the extraction due to decayed wood 9and especially

decayed sapwood), and could not be used because too much wood was missing from the core to

allow accurate crossdating. Finally, some series did not exhibit ring patterns similar to other

series due to possible stand disturbance mechanisms, which is not uncommon in

dendrochronology.

Outermost Dates

Most series contained in the Hermitage master chronology show outermost dates of 1841

and 1842, indicating cutting dates from fall of 1841 to the spring of 1843. We offer two possible

explanations for this range of dates. First, the series that show outermost dates of 1841 (cutting

dates from fall of 1841 to spring of 1842) could well have been cut in 1843 because the

outermost surface was too eroded to make the 1842 ring clear enough to measure. After visually

inspecting the differences in the outer surfaces between the 1841 cores and the 1842 cores, we

feel that this is a likely explanation. Second, it is entirely possible that these logs were cut over a

two year period from 1842 to 1843, and final construction was not completed until 1843. We are

certain, however, that none of the samples included in this master chronology were cut after

1843, indicated by the smooth and clearly intact outer surfaces of the cores with outermost dates

of 1842.

Conclusions

The quality of the crossdating between the Alfred’s Cabin master chronology and the

Norris Basin red cedar master chronology, and the internal crossdating between samples taken

from the cabin itself, are compelling evidence that Alfred’s Cabin is correctly anchored in time,

with final construction and possible permanent occupation likely occurring in 1843 (or shortly

thereafter). The cores used to build the Alfred’s Cabin master chronology had clearly identifiable


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annual growth rings that showed a regional signal present in all the samples. Although some

dissimilarities were evident between this chronology and the Norris Basin red cedar chronology,

these dissimilarities are due to short-term, local fluctuations in weather patterns, and do not

override the clear signal between these two chronologies.

Acknowledgements

The Alfred’s Cabin Dendrochronology Study at The Hermitage was funded in part by a

grant from the Charles Evans Hughes Preservation Fund of the National Trust for Historic

Preservation. We gratefully acknowledge the support offered by the very accommodating staff at

The Hermitage throughout all stages of this project. We were greatly assisted in the field by

Georgina G. DeWeese, Tim Green, Jessica Brogden, and Shannon Koerner, all of whom gave

freely of their weekends to help on this project. Lastly, we thank Robbie Jones for his help,

advice, understanding, and patience throughout this very worthwhile project. He supplied needed

documents and photographs that greatly improved the quality and significance of this research.

References Bannatyne, L. 2005 Every tree has a story to tell. Christian Science Monitor, March 8, 2005.

Bortolot, Z.J., C.A. Copehneaver, R.L. Longe, and J.A.N. van Aardt 2001 Development of a white oak chronology using live trees and a post-Civil War cabin in

south-central Virginia. Tree-Ring Research 57: 197–203. Bowers, L.J. and D.L. Grashot 1976 Results of the first Hermitage dendrochronological study. In: An Archaeological and

Historical Assessment of the First Hermitage, edited by S.D. Smith, pp. 271–281. Division of Archaeology, Tennessee Department of Conservation, and The Ladies’ Hermitage Association, Nashville, Tennessee.

Butler, D.R. and S.J. Walsh 1988 The use of eastern redcedar in a tree-ring study in Oklahoma. Prairie Naturalist 20(1):

47–56.

Chase, Sara 1999 First Hermitage Restoration & Alfred’s Cabin: Finish Analysis. Unpublished report, on

file at The Hermitage, Nashville. Cook, E.R.


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2005 Norris Basin master chronology from eastern red cedar (Juniperus virginiana L.). Tree-Ring Laboratory, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University. Unpublished data.

Fritts, H.C. 1976 Tree Rings and Climate. Academic Press, New York, London. 567 pp.

Grissino-Mayer, H.D. 2001 Evaluating crossdating accuracy: a manual and tutorial for the computer program

COFECHA. Tree-Ring Research 57: 205–221. Grissino-Mayer, H.D. and S.L. van de Gevel 2006 Tell-tale trees: The historical dendroarchaeology of log structures at Rocky Mount, Piney

Flats, and Tennessee. Historical Archaeology, in press. Hawley, F.M. 1937 Relationship of southern cedar growth to precipitation and run off. Ecology 18(3): 398–

405.

Hawley, F.M. 1938 Dendrochronology in two Mississippi drainage tree-ring areas. Tree-Ring Bulletin 5(1):

3–7.

Hawley, F.M. 1941 Tree Ring Analysis and Dating in the Mississippi Drainage. Publications in

Anthropology Occasional Paper 2. University of Chicago Press, Chicago: 1–110. Heikkenen, H.J. 2001 The Year of Construction of the First Hermitage and Kitchen as Derived by Key-Year

Dendrochronology. Dendrochronology, Inc., Technical Report.

Holmes, R.L. 1983 Computer-assisted quality control in tree-ring dating and measurement. Tree-Ring

Bulletin 43: 69–78. McKee, Larry 1997 Summary Report on the 1994 Excavation Around Alfred's Cabin at The Hermitage.

Unpublished report on file at The Hermitage, Nashville. Jones, Robbie 2005 The Hermitage Cultural Resources Inventory: Alfred's Cabin. Unpublished report,

photographs, and research on file at The Hermitage, Nashville. Mann, D.F. 2002 The dendroarchaeology of the Swaggerty Blockhouse, Cocke County, Tennessee. M.S.

thesis, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville. 139 pp.


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National Park Service 1999 Historic American Building Survey: Alfred’s Cabin at The Hermitage. Report, drawings,

and photographs on file at HABS in Washington, DC, and at The Hermitage, Nashville. Orvis, K.H. and H.D. Grissino-Mayer 2002 Standardizing the reporting of abrasive papers used to surface tree-ring samples. Tree-

Ring Research 58(1/2): 47–50. Reding, W.M. 2002 Assessment of spatial and temporal patterns of log structures in east Tennessee. M.S.

thesis, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville. 67 pp. Reed, Douglass 2000 Construction Analysis of the First Hermitage and Alfred’s Cabin. Unpublished report on

file at The Hermitage, Nashville.

Rosman, K. 2005 This not-so-old house. Wall Street Journal, April 8, 2005.

Stahle, D.W. 1979 Tree-dating of historical buildings in Arkansas. Tree-Ring Bulletin 39: 1–28.

Stahle, D.W., M.K. Cleaveland, and J.G. Hehr 1988 North Carolina climate changes reconstructed from tree rings: A.D. 372 to 1985. Science

240: 1517–1519. Stokes, M.A. and T.L. Smiley 1968 An Introduction to Tree-Ring Dating. University of Chicago Press, Chicago. 73 pp.

Swetnam, T.W., M.A. Thompson, and E.K., Sutherland 1985 Using dendrochronology to measure radial growth of defoliated trees. USDA Forest

Service Agricultural Handbook 639: 1–39. Wight, G.D. and H.D. Grissino-Mayer 2004 Dendrochronological dating of an Antebellum Period House, Forsyth County, Georgia,

U.S.A. Tree-Ring Research 60: 91–99.


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Figure 1. Alfred Jackson shown sitting in his log cabin ca. 1900 (photograph courtesy of The Hermitage).


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Figure 2. Alfred’s cabin, located behind the mansion at The Hermitage (photograph courtesy of The Hermitage).


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Figure 3. Sketch of Alfred’s cabin showing the numbering sequence of the logs and pen identification. The red squares represent dated samples used to construct the Hermitage master chronology (original graphic courtesy of the Historic American Buildings Survey, National Park Service, 1999).


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Figure 4. Cores being extracted from both basal and distal ends of a log by Daniel Lewis (left) and Henri Grissino-Mayer (right).


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Figure 5. This core from Alfred’s cabin shows clearly identifiable annual growth rings. The lighter colored wood to the right on the core is the sapwood, while the darker colored wood to the left is the heartwood.

-4

-2

0

2

4

1745 1755 1765 1775 1785 1795 1805 1815 1825 1835 1845

Figure 6. Crossdating between the Hermitage master chronology (black line) and the Norris Basin master chronology (red line) from 1749 to 1842. This graph clearly illustrates the very close relationship between the two chronologies. The y-axis represents standard deviation units (departures from the mean) and is therefore unitless.

Figure 7. Core sample from Alfred’s cabin showing erratic ring sequences that resulted from coring near a branch.


17

Appendix 1: Ring-width measurements (mm X 0.001) from the 39 cores crossdated and measured for this project. (Note on data format: a value of “2357” is actually 2.357 mm. A “-9999” represents an “end of series” sentinel and is not an actual measurement.) ac1w006B1749 2357 ac1w006B1750 2292 1763 2727 4000 1870 1015 2226 3175 3497 1805 ac1w006B1760 2698 2851 1946 2284 2413 1896 2045 1631 3462 2261 ac1w006B1770 2570 3138 1621 1922 2982 2371 2785 1995 1626 1203 ac1w006B1780 1190 1068 900 1344 714 937 957 964 1109 1393 ac1w006B1790 1052 900 515 435 472 602 701 890 801 423 ac1w006B1800 544 392 495 523 500 733 719 570 498 366 ac1w006B1810 282 255 285 344 427 327 188 487 301 477 ac1w006B1820 757 454 596 299 363 394 308 589 223 539 ac1w006B1830 320 526 692 534 427 612 185 265 217 180 ac1w006B1840 287 423 -9999 ac1n003A1771 1752 1600 1332 4375 4930 3872 2969 1827 1750 ac1n003A1780 1555 2626 1968 2341 918 1010 2446 2036 1859 1513 ac1n003A1790 1984 983 749 751 582 743 640 1048 1181 904 ac1n003A1800 1075 841 919 542 728 1113 747 1023 975 829 ac1n003A1810 928 804 1023 906 937 899 886 1678 644 1218 ac1n003A1820 1141 1162 929 712 1033 624 465 1345 941 1760 ac1n003A1830 777 932 760 807 832 1020 337 722 868 743 ac1n003A1840 495 782 848 -9999 ac1n003B1783 2340 866 1040 2214 2703 1743 1854 ac1n003B1790 3014 1744 2977 3245 1905 2918 1212 1901 2166 1328 ac1n003B1800 1717 1038 1881 2297 3147 3141 3977 2709 1522 3005 ac1n003B1810 2798 1629 3595 1686 2980 1844 1166 2222 1069 1336 ac1n003B1820 1453 1621 1346 935 1561 1059 1071 1574 1232 1675 ac1n003B1830 652 980 678 918 883 1067 642 888 1152 1467 ac1n003B1840 1063 -9999 ac1n006B1794 2612 2838 3204 2207 1241 688 ac1n006B1800 3001 1474 2693 3157 2838 3105 3621 2753 2336 2804 ac1n006B1810 2360 1971 2638 2112 2978 2233 1317 3408 2858 1603 ac1n006B1820 1961 1983 1995 1793 2054 1720 2310 1678 972 1111 ac1n006B1830 1126 1631 1507 1385 1740 1476 1229 1275 1544 1662 ac1n006B1840 1710 -9999 ac1n007B1780 2235 3809 2769 2364 2433 1954 3017 3021 2416 2545 ac1n007B1790 2759 2480 2716 3120 2808 3042 2340 2952 2078 1248 ac1n007B1800 2547 1282 1781 1820 2458 2526 1821 1906 1089 1491 ac1n007B1810 1088 1013 1030 1108 1545 1544 1053 1665 1311 1043 ac1n007B1820 953 848 901 740 878 557 377 1002 358 441 ac1n007B1830 586 591 760 576 647 803 565 966 758 698 ac1n007B1840 1271 1374 -9999 ac1w007B1780 1810 1469 1877 1191 461 996 2165 1650 1244 1138 ac1w007B1790 1392 968 826 1308 782 934 1063 867 542 732 ac1w007B1800 931 607 959 807 966 985 800 827 864 1039 ac1w007B1810 1084 1027 1000 874 1722 1192 1172 1427 1111 1119 ac1w007B1820 1497 1308 1397 1035 1209 912 1101 1472 1379 1855 ac1w007B1830 1103 931 951 786 787 803 707 866 786 609 ac1w007B1840 927 918 -9999 ac1w007A1780 2218 2503 1889 2104 1360 1421 2920 2209 1377 1709 ac1w007A1790 1720 1401 1654 1543 1831 1605 866 1898 1100 977 ac1w007A1800 1201 703 942 827 878 1088 946 1141 969 1229 ac1w007A1810 945 1082 989 1034 1396 1065 866 1309 771 813 ac1w007A1820 1311 751 1061 647 919 825 955 1199 766 1287 ac1w007A1830 988 768 642 614 1058 812 719 790 859 665 ac1w007A1840 1041 972 -9999 ac2w007A1754 791 592 1244 1876 1783 1049 ac2w007A1760 2158 2128 1997 2263 3676 3549 2602 2175 4741 3053 ac2w007A1770 3614 3387 1734 1613 2904 2604 2258 1811 1480 1419 ac2w007A1780 1198 2157 1333 1762 698 899 1022 1209 1051 1212 ac2w007A1790 1305 961 667 723 640 747 977 1162 1119 717 ac2w007A1800 761 704 761 887 1230 1470 1276 1242 1199 1437


18

ac2w007A1810 1108 1141 1364 1107 1475 1187 817 1242 906 1149 ac2w007A1820 1664 1360 1484 1095 1254 887 782 1415 863 1105 ac2w007A1830 920 807 789 776 1046 954 1030 1314 1349 1368 ac2w007A1840 1438 1631 2144 -9999 ac2w007B1768 2478 2083 ac2w007B1770 2669 2853 2650 2097 3796 2773 2242 1951 2325 2173 ac2w007B1780 1777 2443 2041 2306 1417 1293 1980 1690 1745 1560 ac2w007B1790 1764 1311 1158 1362 976 1298 1072 1294 1359 819 ac2w007B1800 875 665 757 1043 1549 2063 1832 1488 982 1381 ac2w007B1810 1322 1237 1510 1417 1796 1475 975 1655 1235 1261 ac2w007B1820 1852 1372 1269 928 1268 831 791 1447 939 1129 ac2w007B1830 977 1408 1238 1197 1351 1089 1692 1717 1602 1723 ac2w007B1840 1721 1611 1853 -9999 ac2w003A1769 1833 ac2w003A1770 2492 2222 1662 2463 3852 3279 4567 3801 4746 3330 ac2w003A1780 2875 4852 3501 4439 1497 1249 1708 3168 5183 1908 ac2w003A1790 3255 2165 1408 1597 2312 2444 1919 2530 2022 993 ac2w003A1800 1105 957 1227 1116 1573 1759 1402 1549 1297 1337 ac2w003A1810 1128 1385 1619 1142 1523 1554 802 1687 948 1092 ac2w003A1820 1163 1069 1095 855 1202 934 476 890 432 610 ac2w003A1830 507 792 838 661 664 854 489 814 1019 899 ac2w003A1840 1606 1771 -9999 ac2e005C1769 3488 ac2e005C1770 4749 3613 2084 2389 4118 3735 2677 2025 2594 2051 ac2e005C1780 1293 2746 2240 2687 993 1141 1998 1653 1019 1172 ac2e005C1790 1728 1505 784 930 1038 1058 1090 1784 1699 914 ac2e005C1800 1233 828 1287 1018 1225 1109 921 691 823 772 ac2e005C1810 865 865 1114 987 2060 1476 805 2278 1642 1372 ac2e005C1820 2451 2310 2206 2193 1905 1512 1059 1414 1171 1700 ac2e005C1830 1422 2274 1668 1366 2018 949 627 1572 1410 1600 ac2e005C1840 1243 1597 -9999 AC2W005a 1765 1688 1481 1340 2698 1981 AC2W005a 1770 2706 2933 1265 1507 3806 3080 2378 1311 2270 1852 AC2W005a 1780 1749 2862 2304 2178 964 1158 2354 2473 1557 1301 AC2W005a 1790 1836 1470 1229 1330 980 1482 1566 2528 1913 856 AC2W005a 1800 1026 779 1189 1082 1478 1774 1738 1445 1172 1141 AC2W005a 1810 997 1141 1736 1335 2057 1390 836 1984 1288 1191 AC2W005a 1820 1380 2037 1798 902 1068 512 581 1240 450 1227 AC2W005a 1830 678 918 749 816 1076 602 689 737 700 480 AC2W005a 1840 727 1376 -9999 ac2w008A1764 1833 1850 1702 1455 2170 1894 ac2w008A1770 2789 3378 1822 1662 2774 3532 3031 2054 2307 2061 ac2w008A1780 1816 2393 2849 2205 1775 1401 2321 2381 1481 1455 ac2w008A1790 1876 1467 898 1247 690 1040 1044 1414 1278 508 ac2w008A1800 862 357 665 848 723 1218 887 1195 820 1589 ac2w008A1810 1072 680 750 621 1227 692 712 1071 926 1191 ac2w008A1820 1382 928 874 629 1111 658 626 788 509 511 ac2w008A1830 480 763 532 530 684 700 503 590 631 756 ac2w008A1840 636 1047 -9999 acmE007B1770 3787 4035 2130 1405 2234 2028 2627 1713 1614 1590 acmE007B1780 1216 2250 1841 3466 891 1103 1766 2069 1343 1003 acmE007B1790 1096 795 574 781 613 470 676 580 741 654 acmE007B1800 843 633 649 714 937 992 961 820 882 885 acmE007B1810 1413 1207 1504 982 1060 937 625 674 545 697 acmE007B1820 372 662 803 566 494 336 160 557 262 411 acmE007B1830 180 102 111 293 200 248 173 179 302 204 acmE007B1840 362 535 -9999 ac2e006a1765 1602 1892 1610 4415 2919 ac2e006a1770 3462 3484 2209 3000 3436 3389 3424 2914 3396 2739 ac2e006a1780 2217 3967 2981 3213 2051 1804 3167 2728 1428 1483 ac2e006a1790 2151 1505 1037 1172 883 956 1185 1465 1108 615 ac2e006a1800 778 537 849 744 804 986 669 756 990 903 ac2e006a1810 957 1146 883 878 1254 685 604 721 769 1001 ac2e006a1820 933 845 966 778 938 670 467 892 552 911


19

ac2e006a1830 606 560 653 886 589 659 509 733 643 503 ac2e006a1840 759 846 -9999 ac2w008C1760 4348 5415 2868 4089 3896 3217 2788 2241 3410 3492 ac2w008C1770 3820 4180 1754 1812 3145 3871 3702 2511 2284 1380 ac2w008C1780 1587 2623 2507 2148 789 1331 1899 1771 1235 1135 ac2w008C1790 996 1032 584 835 470 964 892 993 1018 518 ac2w008C1800 502 408 682 762 812 1214 856 913 674 869 ac2w008C1810 848 672 1008 698 1761 1277 2021 1619 1114 1831 ac2w008C1820 1095 1148 668 650 1022 526 529 812 571 1008 ac2w008C1830 603 751 641 458 873 931 503 802 753 371 ac2w008C1840 959 -9999 ac2e008a1779 1993 ac2e008a1780 1891 3338 2637 2795 1955 2059 2730 3450 2643 1801 ac2e008a1790 2475 1871 2150 2121 2117 1993 2351 2119 2416 1755 ac2e008a1800 1808 1013 1331 1077 1164 1645 3642 1872 1320 1738 ac2e008a1810 1760 1558 1940 1186 2118 1776 1202 1992 1268 1018 ac2e008a1820 985 1045 1121 940 1250 1722 1050 1067 849 1021 ac2e008a1830 765 797 1214 759 750 751 516 1134 1018 670 ac2e008a1840 726 -9999 ac2e004c1771 3463 1560 2138 4331 3543 4029 3093 2727 2302 ac2e004c1780 2236 2568 2057 2884 1718 2355 1976 2099 1502 1854 ac2e004c1790 2324 1683 1203 1134 971 1090 1405 1098 638 633 ac2e004c1800 796 674 456 548 730 917 670 645 763 538 ac2e004c1810 476 548 509 570 604 644 698 681 754 950 ac2e004c1820 668 830 1146 833 888 596 362 871 479 668 ac2e004c1830 562 629 757 606 738 690 604 761 726 573 ac2e004c1840 690 1285 -9999 ac1e008c1772 1998 2453 3524 3568 2752 1945 2015 1561 ac1e008c1780 1466 1708 1077 1209 522 535 699 1159 877 833 ac1e008c1790 1046 798 550 748 643 723 1017 1139 1380 721 ac1e008c1800 789 636 808 849 827 1173 1032 1079 954 941 ac1e008c1810 801 665 956 836 1146 930 758 1230 1662 2633 ac1e008c1820 1567 1221 970 847 1015 787 806 1000 679 860 ac1e008c1830 821 791 829 771 747 795 943 1272 1117 1299 ac1e008c1840 1545 1390 1539 -9999 ac1n002c1769 2606 ac1n002c1770 2560 2779 1347 902 2094 1809 1451 1427 1858 1801 ac1n002c1780 1767 1347 1081 1052 554 463 740 1116 636 781 ac1n002c1790 851 1335 896 720 600 464 777 630 549 517 ac1n002c1800 581 571 615 568 895 1061 609 654 704 506 ac1n002c1810 409 511 343 618 806 906 583 1220 990 1185 ac1n002c1820 1307 860 920 732 796 582 711 1029 649 816 ac1n002c1830 491 1011 625 466 707 551 591 822 1020 1319 ac1n002c1840 1088 1414 3933 -9999 ac2s003c1777 1179 998 1049 ac2s003c1780 1119 1264 1713 1272 939 2069 2621 3239 1937 2163 ac2s003c1790 2621 2139 1815 2632 3463 2503 2207 2308 1976 1367 ac2s003c1800 3019 1482 2065 1752 2540 2764 2745 3151 1992 2136 ac2s003c1810 1957 2089 2024 1407 2774 2655 1754 2355 2132 2411 ac2s003c1820 2488 1810 2579 3288 2831 2542 3316 2453 1956 2843 ac2s003c1830 1931 2213 1807 1570 1945 2823 1183 1591 901 335 ac2s003c1840 700 1115 -9999 ac1n005a1774 5680 4985 5097 3523 3019 2411 ac1n005a1780 2679 3917 2605 3528 1383 2572 3606 2873 2117 1739 ac1n005a1790 3256 1785 1867 2880 1528 1755 1559 2011 2016 1154 ac1n005a1800 1619 1121 1632 1456 1731 2079 2212 1467 1257 1903 ac1n005a1810 1556 1392 1498 964 1270 1056 786 1706 1124 896 ac1n005a1820 1048 1014 885 532 989 649 574 1159 552 811 ac1n005a1830 477 225 609 598 791 631 526 775 588 744 ac1n005a1840 642 -9999 ac2e006b1779 2119 ac2e006b1780 2453 3259 2817 2521 1054 1178 2363 2188 1421 1660 ac2e006b1790 2325 1476 1479 1630 1597 1508 1699 1914 1763 1096 ac2e006b1800 1590 1254 1598 1680 1691 1680 1449 1648 1255 1816


20

ac2e006b1810 1417 1681 1134 932 1725 998 862 1056 1187 1105 ac2e006b1820 1230 968 883 743 824 621 434 1030 785 742 ac2e006b1830 765 948 807 804 767 881 717 928 792 826 ac2e006b1840 896 1033 905 -9999 ac2s006a1774 2598 2937 3628 2954 3704 2863 ac2s006a1780 3298 4585 3428 4193 2470 2307 4192 3821 2291 2390 ac2s006a1790 3476 1802 1626 2269 2395 2268 1673 2232 1617 1275 ac2s006a1800 1190 1033 864 998 1111 1745 1678 1886 1100 786 ac2s006a1810 857 835 1009 847 1380 1283 899 765 535 849 ac2s006a1820 767 574 764 543 701 674 489 1067 654 626 ac2s006a1830 722 689 652 467 508 640 406 603 632 589 ac2s006a1840 489 644 760 -9999 ac1e008b1772 1360 1178 2767 3861 2281 1676 1918 1770 ac1e008b1780 1435 2170 1289 1244 656 789 911 1486 1127 1098 ac1e008b1790 1449 1040 854 1081 981 940 1082 1434 1517 806 ac1e008b1800 983 790 1013 928 872 1423 1541 1451 1264 1144 ac1e008b1810 1293 781 1080 821 1626 1250 832 1701 2235 2672 ac1e008b1820 2113 1008 1069 1368 1175 973 987 1450 985 1157 ac1e008b1830 1153 1244 1494 842 908 1135 1088 1306 1409 1444 ac1e008b1840 1630 1250 -9999 ac2e007a1780 2699 3358 3157 3334 1397 2311 3582 2643 1698 1896 ac2e007a1790 1789 968 1001 1290 1148 1492 1140 1598 1598 850 ac2e007a1800 1074 841 1057 1383 1507 2041 1987 1464 1073 1190 ac2e007a1810 1553 1536 1892 1353 1736 1618 980 1286 733 854 ac2e007a1820 843 718 1001 906 1004 644 720 1042 572 732 ac2e007a1830 381 613 682 385 636 555 545 649 842 828 ac2e007a1840 742 1205 -9999 ac2e007c1774 3988 2755 2823 2412 2377 1862 ac2e007c1780 2031 3706 2574 2677 998 1616 2875 2467 1713 1292 ac2e007c1790 2640 1458 1096 1146 852 1123 1091 1414 1126 702 ac2e007c1800 776 607 940 834 916 1024 805 746 847 923 ac2e007c1810 1014 1370 1411 1079 1433 1611 1315 1799 864 850 ac2e007c1820 781 837 1207 973 1148 738 718 1094 625 798 ac2e007c1830 573 743 768 712 877 817 640 656 849 633 ac2e007c1840 725 1179 -9999 ac2s002b1761 4438 2605 3552 3943 2869 2335 1908 4898 3465 ac2s002b1770 3107 3162 1781 1418 3351 2578 2103 1434 1639 1292 ac2s002b1780 1317 1810 1319 1453 573 799 1219 1066 1193 911 ac2s002b1790 1170 1168 697 678 560 373 402 615 906 502 ac2s002b1800 443 351 448 468 711 657 472 253 621 397 ac2s002b1810 361 578 482 510 630 617 507 517 580 648 ac2s002b1820 508 560 818 335 444 352 211 581 444 445 ac2s002b1830 358 509 657 423 540 581 457 258 532 355 ac2s002b1840 393 -9999 ac2s004b1764 1652 1710 1934 1251 1948 1443 ac2s004b1770 1539 1484 1001 748 1851 1629 1913 1102 1321 1567 ac2s004b1780 1097 1038 1007 1363 763 700 805 885 840 798 ac2s004b1790 613 753 884 580 661 793 708 1047 1056 770 ac2s004b1800 600 592 598 579 636 991 1109 1456 1163 861 ac2s004b1810 1258 856 993 1022 2075 1771 1013 1402 1392 1376 ac2s004b1820 817 1084 1525 1347 1051 917 506 868 677 631 ac2s004b1830 684 832 967 973 676 668 806 768 1060 514 ac2s004b1840 588 890 -9999 acmw007a1775 4967 2245 1331 2576 1861 acmw007a1780 2369 2221 2513 2977 1390 1848 3385 2228 2158 1933 acmw007a1790 2266 1568 1482 1735 962 1264 1038 1255 1085 828 acmw007a1800 1081 763 987 1009 1224 997 663 726 856 735 acmw007a1810 1228 808 680 503 644 1053 915 1306 1013 1242 acmw007a1820 916 918 925 838 808 727 379 689 284 266 acmw007a1830 153 99 151 110 150 242 133 170 305 101 acmw007a1840 152 413 -9999 ac2w007c1756 803 1798 1541 830 ac2w007c1760 1464 2302 1930 2245 3502 2931 2274 1871 4617 2388 ac2w007c1770 2750 2700 1470 1483 3120 2503 2229 1656 1616 1381


21

ac2w007c1780 1192 1701 1169 1361 719 982 1254 1166 870 934 ac2w007c1790 870 923 609 764 530 563 936 926 1051 539 ac2w007c1800 667 526 483 686 1126 1431 1039 1217 868 1234 ac2w007c1810 994 974 1040 957 1305 1370 771 1046 1049 890 ac2w007c1820 945 1059 883 811 1035 727 563 1254 726 1093 ac2w007c1830 895 1154 737 673 822 933 868 1086 1131 1036 ac2w007c1840 1389 1286 1744 -9999 ac1n007a1771 4341 2310 2547 3920 4380 4813 3493 3726 3075 ac1n007a1780 2894 4317 3102 3536 1869 2490 3216 2912 2476 2333 ac1n007a1790 2838 1975 1587 2526 1615 2144 1793 2435 2019 1017 ac1n007a1800 1549 922 1450 1216 1476 1703 1071 1062 783 735 ac1n007a1810 571 573 617 588 620 502 537 890 785 723 ac1n007a1820 730 657 712 751 745 665 575 907 468 568 ac1n007a1830 632 795 568 546 687 680 522 833 652 395 ac1n007a1840 756 1102 -9999 ac2s002a1766 1355 965 4828 3348 ac2s002a1770 4063 3156 1762 1550 2421 3252 3480 2392 2927 1821 ac2s002a1780 1721 2371 2006 2238 726 871 2141 1945 1526 1142 ac2s002a1790 2078 1554 933 978 681 577 346 775 1068 672 ac2s002a1800 502 455 500 777 889 848 524 629 755 497 ac2s002a1810 574 511 640 498 751 836 647 1076 769 788 ac2s002a1820 558 701 1112 407 638 441 288 636 576 381 ac2s002a1830 292 481 634 534 785 611 415 466 627 -9999 ac2e004b1774 2153 3059 3496 3606 3750 2875 ac2e004b1780 2624 4107 2501 3017 1533 2595 4291 3157 2504 1678 ac2e004b1790 1972 1863 1771 2053 1206 2237 1882 2536 805 1002 ac2e004b1800 1053 737 1003 789 1085 1451 1287 1121 1225 1509 ac2e004b1810 1474 965 955 772 813 863 687 764 565 866 ac2e004b1820 694 1037 943 585 805 571 343 817 416 676 ac2e004b1830 578 871 621 596 741 736 585 892 715 554 ac2e004b1840 978 1252 1192 -9999 ac1e006c1770 3856 2719 1153 1609 3064 3009 2773 1758 2182 2179 ac1e006c1780 1490 1995 1373 1986 707 870 2199 2081 1313 1516 ac1e006c1790 1770 1100 658 969 876 1162 977 1029 1190 714 ac1e006c1800 944 704 932 1186 1534 1449 1460 1065 838 1718 ac1e006c1810 1236 831 685 807 1185 1150 600 1087 1276 795 ac1e006c1820 846 926 1039 677 727 398 323 578 365 825 ac1e006c1830 381 224 391 321 490 434 216 594 413 400 ac1e006c1840 633 1125 -9999 ac2e004a1769 3318 ac2e004a1770 2565 3378 1695 2023 4848 3372 4501 3034 2821 2114 ac2e004a1780 2062 3333 2213 2266 1142 1836 1794 1822 1577 1927 ac2e004a1790 2533 1326 1073 957 902 1083 1087 1109 515 664 ac2e004a1800 773 632 666 568 738 951 645 603 635 684 ac2e004a1810 599 557 600 525 585 665 588 736 624 809 ac2e004a1820 572 1050 1140 859 787 609 441 1015 584 806 ac2e004a1830 583 796 744 675 828 792 532 742 674 625 ac2e004a1840 820 1379 -9999 ac1w008b1775 2461 2606 2199 2239 1912 ac1w008b1780 1818 2340 2032 2367 1029 1602 2326 1680 1232 1509 ac1w008b1790 1335 1240 925 985 732 1530 1084 1192 926 370 ac1w008b1800 654 646 670 586 740 912 646 547 570 571 ac1w008b1810 522 496 721 586 939 1372 733 1219 1174 1222 ac1w008b1820 1497 1885 1967 1054 1311 1421 1259 1426 971 1475 ac1w008b1830 904 1150 1175 1018 1566 1688 1010 1194 1113 1429 ac1w008b1840 1936 -9999 ac2w008d1770 4252 4410 1944 2046 3414 3669 3402 2095 3010 1603 ac2w008d1780 1563 2059 1941 1794 867 903 1675 1600 897 821 ac2w008d1790 838 905 489 1011 537 830 1005 1259 1293 448 ac2w008d1800 530 329 461 556 770 913 474 1024 643 933 ac2w008d1810 866 621 747 636 1212 975 670 1125 1279 1171 ac2w008d1820 1289 922 998 773 1059 650 473 783 542 716 ac2w008d1830 534 790 636 592 816 685 448 535 443 349 ac2w008d1840 532 -9999


22

ac1w008c1779 2365 ac1w008c1780 1965 2748 1853 1731 959 1012 2498 1779 1175 1515 ac1w008c1790 1447 1338 998 1138 987 1478 1131 1641 1306 552 ac1w008c1800 888 623 895 783 903 1470 818 783 591 586 ac1w008c1810 688 716 803 562 1047 1403 929 2066 1364 1036 ac1w008c1820 747 1247 2016 1331 1420 1414 1557 1277 768 1062 ac1w008c1830 877 1238 1335 1053 1241 1417 984 1048 992 1077 ac1w008c1840 1579 1834 -9999

23

Appendix 2. Output from the computer program COFECHA, used to confirm crossdating among the measured samples. [] Dendrochronology Program Library Run DE22H Program COF 13:46 Thu 22 Dec 2005 Page 1 [] [] P R O G R A M C O F E C H A Version 6.06P 25925 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ QUALITY CONTROL AND DATING CHECK OF TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS Title of run: de22h File of DATED series: hermitage.txt CONTENTS: Part 1: Title page, options selected, summary, absent rings by series Part 2: Histogram of time spans Part 3: Master series with sample depth and absent rings by year Part 4: Bar plot of Master Dating Series Part 5: Correlation by segment of each series with Master Part 6: Potential problems: low correlation, divergent year-to-year changes, absent rings, outliers Part 7: Descriptive statistics RUN CONTROL OPTIONS SELECTED VALUE 1 Cubic smoothing spline 50% wavelength cutoff for filtering 32 years 2 Segments examined are 40 years lagged successively by 20 years 3 Autoregressive model applied A Residuals are used in master dating series and testing 4 Series transformed to logarithms Y Each series log-transformed for master dating series and testing 5 CORRELATION is Pearson (parametric, quantitative) Critical correlation, 99% confidence level .3665 6 Master dating series saved N 7 Ring measurements listed N 8 Parts printed 1234567 9 Absent rings are omitted from master series and segment correlations (Y) Time span of Master dating series is 1749 to 1842 94 years Continuous time span is 1749 to 1842 94 years Portion with two or more series is 1754 to 1842 89 years **************************************** *C* Number of dated series 39 *C* *O* Master series 1749 1842 94 yrs *O* *F* Total rings in all series 2764 *F* *E* Total dated rings checked 2759 *E* *C* Series intercorrelation .662 *C* *H* Average mean sensitivity .279 *H* *A* Segments, possible problems 4 *A* *** Mean length of series 70.9 *** **************************************** ABSENT RINGS listed by SERIES: (See Master Dating Series for absent rings listed by year) PART 2: TIME PLOT OF TREE-RING SERIES: de22h 13:46 Thu 22 Dec 2005 Page 2

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------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1050 1100 1150 1200 1250 1300 1350 1400 1450 1500 1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 Ident Seq Time-span Yrs : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : -------- --- ---- ---- ---- . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <=========>. . . . . ac1w006B 1 1749 1841 93 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <======>. . . . . ac1n003A 2 1771 1842 72 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <=====>. . . . . ac1n003B 3 1783 1840 58 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <====>. . . . . ac1n006B 4 1794 1840 47 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <=====>. . . . . ac1n007B 5 1780 1841 62 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <=====>. . . . . ac1w007B 6 1780 1841 62 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <=====>. . . . . ac1w007A 7 1780 1841 62 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <========>. . . . . ac2w007A 8 1754 1842 89 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<=======>. . . . . ac2w007B 9 1768 1842 75 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<=======>. . . . . ac2w003A 10 1769 1841 73 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<=======>. . . . . ac2e005C 11 1769 1841 73 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<=======>. . . . . AC2005a 12 1765 1841 77 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<=======>. . . . . ac2w008A 13 1764 1841 78 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <======>. . . . . acmE007B 14 1770 1841 72 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<=======>. . . . . ac2e006a 15 1765 1841 77 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<=======>. . . . . ac2w008C 16 1760 1840 81 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <======>. . . . . ac2e008a 17 1779 1840 62 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <======>. . . . . ac2e004c 18 1771 1841 71 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <======>. . . . . ac1e008c 19 1772 1842 71 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<=======>. . . . . ac1n002c 20 1769 1842 74 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <======>. . . . . ac2s003c 21 1777 1841 65 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <======>. . . . . ac1n005a 22 1774 1840 67 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <======>. . . . . ac2e006b 23 1779 1842 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <======>. . . . . ac2s006a 24 1774 1842 69 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <======>. . . . . ac1e008b 25 1772 1841 70 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <=====>. . . . . ac2e007a 26 1780 1841 62 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <======>. . . . . ac2e007c 27 1774 1841 68 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<=======>. . . . . ac2s002b 28 1761 1840 80 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<=======>. . . . . ac2s004b 29 1764 1841 78 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <======>. . . . . acmw007a 30 1775 1841 67 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <========>. . . . . ac2w007c 31 1756 1842 87 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <======>. . . . . ac1n007a 32 1771 1841 71 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<======> . . . . . ac2s002a 33 1766 1838 73 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <======>. . . . . ac2e004b 34 1774 1842 69 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <======>. . . . . ac1e006c 35 1770 1841 72 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<=======>. . . . . ac2e004a 36 1769 1841 73 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <======>. . . . . ac1w008b 37 1775 1840 66 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <======>. . . . . ac2w008d 38 1770 1840 71 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <======>. . . . . ac1w008c 39 1779 1841 63 : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : 1050 1100 1150 1200 1250 1300 1350 1400 1450 1500 1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

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PART 3: Master Dating Series: de22h 13:46 Thu 22 Dec 2005 Page 3 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ 1750 .011 1 1800 -.219 39 1751 -1.305 1 1801 -1.824 39 1752 .783 1 1802 -.455 39 1753 2.429 1 1803 -.479 39 1754 -1.081 2 1804 .535 39 1755 -3.463 2 1805 1.534 39 1756 -.865 3 1806 .554 39 1757 1.044 3 1807 .399 39 1758 .641 3 1808 -.178 39 1759 -2.173 3 1809 .203 39 1760 .191 4 1810 -.095 39 1761 .954 5 1811 -.403 39 1762 -.972 5 1812 .071 39 1763 .185 5 1813 -.795 39 1764 .749 7 1814 1.199 39 1765 -.066 9 1815 .570 39 1766 -.505 10 1816 -.984 39 1767 -1.555 10 1817 1.204 39 1768 1.517 11 1818 .060 39 1769 -.003 15 1819 .525 39 1770 .859 18 1820 .544 39 1771 .868 21 1821 .420 39 1772 -1.516 23 1822 .965 39 1773 -1.420 23 1823 -.349 39 1774 1.089 27 1824 .684 39 1775 1.001 29 1825 -.655 39 1776 1.009 29 1826 -1.566 39 1777 -.226 30 1827 1.208 39 1778 .304 30 1828 -1.239 39 1779 -.455 33 1829 .365 39 1780 -.629 37 1830 -1.038 39 1781 1.117 37 1831 -.002 39 1782 .180 37 1832 -.043 39 1783 .817 38 1833 -.712 39 1784 -2.471 38 1834 .205 39 1785 -1.311 38 1835 .170 39 1786 1.038 38 1836 -1.331 39 1787 1.120 38 1837 .223 39 1788 -.109 38 1838 .241 39 1789 -.039 38 1839 -.451 38 1790 1.078 38 1840 .514 38 1791 -.048 38 1841 1.486 30 1792 -.965 38 1842 1.654 9 1793 -.027 38 1794 -.921 39 1795 .039 39 1796 .039 39 1797 1.171 39 1798 .570 39 1749 .172 1 1799 -1.560 39

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PART 4: Master Bar Plot: de22h 13:46 Thu 22 Dec 2005 Page 4 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value 1750----@ 1800---a 1751-e 1801g 1752--------C 1802---b 1753----------J 1803---b 1754-d 1804-------B 1755n 1805----------F 1756--c 1806-------B 1757---------D 1807-------B 1758-------C 1808----a 1759i 1809------A 1760------A 1810----@ 1761--------D 1811---b 1762-d 1812-----@ 1763------A 1813--c 1764--------C 1814---------E 1765----@ 1815-------B 1766---b 1816-d 1767f 1817---------E 1768----------F 1818-----@ 1769----@ 1819-------B 1770--------C 1820-------B 1771--------C 1821-------B 1772f 1822--------D 1773f 1823---a 1774---------D 1824-------C 1775---------D 1825--c 1776---------D 1826f 1777---a 1827---------E 1778------A 1828-e 1779---b 1829------A 1780--c 1830-d 1781---------D 1831----@ 1782------A 1832----@ 1783--------C 1833--c 1784j 1834------A 1785-e 1835------A 1786---------D 1836e 1787---------D 1837------A 1788----@ 1838------A 1789----@ 1839---b 1790---------D 1840-------B 1791----@ 1841----------F 1792-d 1842----------G 1793----@ 1794-d 1795-----@ 1796-----@ 1797---------E 1798-------B 1749------A 1799f

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PART 5: CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: de22h 13:46 Thu 22 Dec 2005 Page 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Correlations of 40-year dated segments, lagged 20 years Flags: A = correlation under .3665 but highest as dated; B = correlation higher at other than dated position Seq Series Time_span 1740 1760 1780 1800 1820 1779 1799 1819 1839 1859 --- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 1 ac1w006B 1749 1841 .77 .74 .64 .65 .66 2 ac1n003A 1771 1842 .53 .50 .51 .55 3 ac1n003B 1783 1840 .65 .57 .58 4 ac1n006B 1794 1840 .48 .47 .48 5 ac1n007B 1780 1841 .61 .77 .75 6 ac1w007B 1780 1841 .62 .54 .48 7 ac1w007A 1780 1841 .62 .48 .40 8 ac2w007A 1754 1842 .84 .84 .84 .72 .75 9 ac2w007B 1768 1842 .73 .84 .63 .56 10 ac2w003A 1769 1841 .70 .72 .83 .84 11 ac2e005C 1769 1841 .73 .69 .51 .52 12 AC2005a 1765 1841 .81 .80 .67 .71 13 ac2w008A 1764 1841 .76 .70 .69 .65 14 acmE007B 1770 1841 .75 .66 .52 .54 15 ac2e006a 1765 1841 .77 .65 .66 .61 16 ac2w008C 1760 1840 .84 .77 .64 .66 17 ac2e008a 1779 1840 .58 .55 .51 .51 18 ac2e004c 1771 1841 .59 .45 .62 .67 19 ac1e008c 1772 1842 .80 .79 .50 .47 20 ac1n002c 1769 1842 .58 .49 .46 .52 21 ac2s003c 1777 1841 .64 .65 .40 .34A 22 ac1n005a 1774 1840 .80 .79 .46 .46 23 ac2e006b 1779 1842 .76 .76 .57 .58 24 ac2s006a 1774 1842 .51 .57 .51B .52B 25 ac1e008b 1772 1841 .79 .79 .53 .44 26 ac2e007a 1780 1841 .75 .56 .57 27 ac2e007c 1774 1841 .82 .79 .65 .61 28 ac2s002b 1761 1840 .75 .56 .48 .48 29 ac2s004b 1764 1841 .53 .46 .47 .49 30 acmw007a 1775 1841 .57 .58 .51 .47 31 ac2w007c 1756 1842 .81 .82 .82 .74 .75 32 ac1n007a 1771 1841 .92 .84 .60 .58 33 ac2s002a 1766 1838 .74 .70 .61 34 ac2e004b 1774 1842 .50B .63 .72 .72 35 ac1e006c 1770 1841 .90 .87 .78 .77 36 ac2e004a 1769 1841 .59 .55 .76 .79 37 ac1w008b 1775 1840 .80 .80 .59 .60 38 ac2w008d 1770 1840 .83 .79 .79 .79 39 ac1w008c 1779 1841 .83 .84 .56 .56 Av segment correlation .81 .72 .68 .60 .59

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PART 6: POTENTIAL PROBLEMS: de22h 13:46 Thu 22 Dec 2005 Page 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ For each series with potential problems the following diagnostics may appear: [A] Correlations with master dating series of flagged 40-year segments of series filtered with 32-year spline, at every point from ten years earlier (-10) to ten years later (+10) than dated [B] Effect of those data values which most lower or raise correlation with master series Symbol following year indicates value in series is greater (>) or lesser (<) than master series value [C] Year-to-year changes very different from the mean change in other series [D] Absent rings (zero values) [E] Values which are statistical outliers from mean for the year ==================================================================================================================================== ac1w006B 1749 to 1841 93 years Series 1 [*] Early part of series cannot be checked from 1749 to 1753 -- not matched by another series [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .735) is: Lower 1781< -.016 1793< -.010 1833> -.008 1789> -.007 1756> -.007 1782< -.007 Higher 1755 .035 1784 .017 ==================================================================================================================================== ac1n003A 1771 to 1842 72 years Series 2 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .531) is: Lower 1799> -.026 1840< -.026 1801> -.024 1828> -.019 1771< -.009 1804< -.008 Higher 1826 .028 1817 .014 ==================================================================================================================================== ac1n003B 1783 to 1840 58 years Series 3 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .578) is: Lower 1828> -.037 1792> -.028 1839> -.026 1796< -.018 1832< -.018 1818< -.015 Higher 1801 .044 1784 .024 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1839 +3.2 SD ==================================================================================================================================== ac1n006B 1794 to 1840 47 years Series 4 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .483) is: Lower 1826> -.099 1819< -.033 1829< -.030 1798< -.027 1794> -.017 1839> -.016 Higher 1799 .073 1828 .068 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1826 +4.0 SD ==================================================================================================================================== ac1n007B 1780 to 1841 62 years Series 5 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .671) is: Lower 1784> -.072 1829< -.023 1794> -.020 1792> -.015 1783< -.014 1808< -.007 Higher 1799 .028 1826 .026

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==================================================================================================================================== ac1w007B 1780 to 1841 62 years Series 6 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .574) is: Lower 1798< -.091 1828> -.046 1826> -.017 1783< -.010 1816> -.009 1806< -.009 Higher 1784 .115 1801 .038 [E] Outliers 2 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1798 -4.5 SD; 1829 +3.2 SD ==================================================================================================================================== ac1w007A 1780 to 1841 62 years Series 7 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .554) is: Lower 1826> -.030 1794> -.028 1830> -.027 1796< -.022 1804< -.019 1819< -.014 Higher 1801 .049 1784 .046 ==================================================================================================================================== ac2w007A 1754 to 1842 89 years Series 8 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .810) is: Lower 1818< -.008 1831< -.007 1778< -.007 1786< -.006 1835< -.006 1832< -.006 Higher 1784 .023 1759 .013 ==================================================================================================================================== ac2w007B 1768 to 1842 75 years Series 9 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .643) is: Lower 1836> -.042 1835< -.039 1772> -.031 1768< -.018 1841< -.014 1839> -.011 Higher 1784 .032 1801 .025 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1836 +3.5 SD ==================================================================================================================================== ac2w003A 1769 to 1841 73 years Series 10 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .742) is: Lower 1786< -.021 1788> -.017 1794> -.014 1771< -.012 1825> -.009 1784> -.008 Higher 1826 .016 1799 .014 ==================================================================================================================================== ac2e005C 1769 to 1841 73 years Series 11 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .642) is: Lower 1835< -.026 1807< -.017 1827< -.011 1839> -.010 1823> -.010 1836< -.009 Higher 1784 .025 1772 .016 ==================================================================================================================================== AC2005a 1765 to 1841 77 years Series 12 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .732) is: Lower 1828< -.026 1836> -.012 1833> -.008 1799> -.007 1803< -.007 1835< -.007 Higher 1841 .008 1817 .007 ====================================================================================================================================

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ac2w008A 1764 to 1841 78 years Series 13 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .722) is: Lower 1784> -.059 1829< -.013 1815< -.010 1826> -.010 1839> -.010 1809> -.009 Higher 1799 .018 1801 .017 ==================================================================================================================================== acmE007B 1770 to 1841 72 years Series 14 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .649) is: Lower 1820< -.035 1797< -.024 1795< -.023 1831< -.021 1833> -.016 1810> -.014 Higher 1784 .077 1826 .023 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1812 +3.0 SD ==================================================================================================================================== ac2e006a 1765 to 1841 77 years Series 15 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .705) is: Lower 1784> -.043 1833> -.024 1817< -.017 1811> -.016 1773> -.012 1815< -.010 Higher 1801 .023 1799 .018 [E] Outliers 2 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1811 +3.0 SD; 1833 +3.0 SD ==================================================================================================================================== ac2w008C 1760 to 1840 81 years Series 16 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .763) is: Lower 1816> -.042 1822< -.023 1790< -.009 1800< -.006 1794< -.006 1785> -.005 Higher 1784 .041 1801 .014 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1816 +4.0 SD ==================================================================================================================================== ac2e008a 1779 to 1840 62 years Series 17 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .501) is: Lower 1825> -.038 1804< -.023 1819< -.017 1789< -.016 1826> -.015 1820< -.013 Higher 1801 .057 1836 .026 [E] Outliers 2 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1806 +3.6 SD; 1825 +4.0 SD ==================================================================================================================================== ac2e004c 1771 to 1841 71 years Series 18 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .638) is: Lower 1798< -.033 1785> -.022 1802< -.021 1816> -.015 1801> -.013 1808> -.008 Higher 1826 .021 1772 .021 ==================================================================================================================================== ac1e008c 1772 to 1842 71 years Series 19 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .681) is: Lower 1826> -.017 1836> -.016 1773> -.016 1841< -.011 1839> -.010 1822< -.010 Higher 1784 .080 1799 .018 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year

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1819 +3.6 SD ==================================================================================================================================== ac1n002c 1769 to 1842 74 years Series 20 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .553) is: Lower 1826> -.027 1812< -.023 1801> -.020 1791> -.017 1806< -.012 1780> -.012 Higher 1784 .074 1772 .030 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1791 +3.3 SD ==================================================================================================================================== ac2s003c 1777 to 1841 65 years Series 21 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1802 1841 0 .15 .08 -.03 -.09 -.13 .00 -.12 .05 .16 -.16 .34*-.31 - - - - - - - - - [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .476) is: Lower 1826> -.070 1794> -.034 1821< -.033 1783< -.020 1823> -.019 1785> -.017 Higher 1784 .086 1801 .036 1802 to 1841 segment: Lower 1826> -.136 1821< -.047 1823> -.035 1825> -.013 1840< -.008 1838< -.007 Higher 1816 .043 1813 .026 [E] Outliers 2 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1794 +3.7 SD; 1826 +4.4 SD ==================================================================================================================================== ac1n005a 1774 to 1840 67 years Series 22 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .583) is: Lower 1831< -.153 1839> -.017 1778< -.008 1828> -.006 1814< -.006 1819< -.005 Higher 1784 .040 1801 .024 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1831 -5.3 SD ==================================================================================================================================== ac2e006b 1779 to 1842 64 years Series 23 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .673) is: Lower 1828> -.021 1826< -.020 1817< -.012 1811> -.012 1803> -.008 1815< -.007 Higher 1799 .025 1784 .018 ==================================================================================================================================== ac2s006a 1774 to 1842 69 years Series 24 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1800 1839 -10 .57*-.14 .38 -.01 -.15 .02 -.35 .17 -.04 .00 .51|-.33 .17 .08 - - - - - - - 1803 1842 -10 .59*-.18 .35 .01 -.20 .05 -.26 .12 -.07 -.03 .52| - - - - - - - - - - [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .496) is: Lower 1774< -.046 1830> -.027 1828> -.016 1794> -.015 1840< -.015 1818< -.014 Higher 1826 .028 1836 .023 1800 to 1839 segment: Lower 1830> -.050 1828> -.037 1821< -.024 1818< -.023 1816> -.021 1817< -.021 Higher 1836 .052 1826 .046 1803 to 1842 segment: Lower 1830> -.054 1828> -.040 1840< -.024 1816> -.023 1821< -.021 1817< -.021 Higher 1836 .066 1826 .052

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==================================================================================================================================== ac1e008b 1772 to 1841 70 years Series 25 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .637) is: Lower 1833< -.043 1841< -.032 1786< -.024 1839> -.010 1821< -.009 1826> -.009 Higher 1784 .072 1799 .023 ==================================================================================================================================== ac2e007a 1780 to 1841 62 years Series 26 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .667) is: Lower 1826> -.027 1791< -.020 1833< -.017 1830< -.015 1818< -.014 1785> -.013 Higher 1784 .057 1799 .016 ==================================================================================================================================== ac2e007c 1774 to 1841 68 years Series 27 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .779) is: Lower 1816> -.023 1811> -.015 1807< -.014 1775< -.010 1820< -.009 1826> -.009 Higher 1784 .047 1801 .020 ==================================================================================================================================== ac2s002b 1761 to 1840 80 years Series 28 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .618) is: Lower 1807< -.032 1837< -.026 1836> -.017 1795< -.017 1799> -.014 1809< -.009 Higher 1784 .076 1826 .020 ==================================================================================================================================== ac2s004b 1764 to 1841 78 years Series 29 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .507) is: Lower 1790< -.034 1836> -.021 1792> -.019 1833> -.015 1820< -.014 1799> -.013 Higher 1826 .035 1784 .029 ==================================================================================================================================== acmw007a 1775 to 1841 67 years Series 30 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .589) is: Lower 1794< -.024 1806< -.023 1814< -.019 1776< -.016 1816> -.011 1825> -.010 Higher 1784 .045 1801 .026 ==================================================================================================================================== ac2w007c 1756 to 1842 87 years Series 31 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .778) is: Lower 1756< -.019 1760< -.009 1762> -.009 1830> -.009 1802< -.007 1795< -.005 Higher 1784 .040 1759 .017 ==================================================================================================================================== ac1n007a 1771 to 1841 71 years Series 32 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .796) is: Lower 1815< -.018 1839< -.017 1814< -.015 1826> -.014 1810< -.013 1823> -.012 Higher 1784 .047 1799 .013

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==================================================================================================================================== ac2s002a 1766 to 1838 73 years Series 33 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .695) is: Lower 1796< -.043 1829< -.015 1828> -.014 1799> -.012 1823< -.012 1809< -.009 Higher 1784 .072 1826 .015 ==================================================================================================================================== ac2e004b 1774 to 1842 69 years Series 34 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1774 1813 10 .03 -.11 -.17 .19 -.15 .14 -.02 -.17 .14 -.03 .50| .10 -.11 -.06 -.15 .16 -.29 -.15 -.02 .06 .53* [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .606) is: Lower 1774< -.090 1798< -.032 1785> -.011 1810> -.010 1814< -.008 1818< -.006 Higher 1784 .053 1826 .031 1774 to 1813 segment: Lower 1774< -.168 1798< -.059 1785> -.014 1810> -.013 1790< -.010 1777> -.008 Higher 1784 .154 1801 .040 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1774 -4.7 SD ==================================================================================================================================== ac1e006c 1770 to 1841 72 years Series 35 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .859) is: Lower 1809> -.011 1831< -.010 1818> -.009 1812< -.007 1838< -.007 1827< -.006 Higher 1784 .034 1801 .009 ==================================================================================================================================== ac2e004a 1769 to 1841 73 years Series 36 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .655) is: Lower 1798< -.136 1770< -.013 1814< -.011 1820< -.009 1823> -.007 1785> -.006 Higher 1784 .053 1826 .018 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1798 -5.1 SD ==================================================================================================================================== ac1w008b 1775 to 1840 66 years Series 37 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .750) is: Lower 1826> -.027 1801> -.027 1825> -.011 1795> -.010 1785> -.010 1807< -.007 Higher 1784 .074 1799 .017 ==================================================================================================================================== ac2w008d 1770 to 1840 71 years Series 38 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .813) is: Lower 1806< -.017 1790< -.011 1818> -.009 1798> -.005 1834> -.005 1839< -.004 Higher 1772 .010 1828 .008 ==================================================================================================================================== ac1w008c 1779 to 1841 63 years Series 39

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[B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .724) is: Lower 1826> -.061 1820< -.021 1825> -.013 1809< -.008 1779> -.008 1838< -.007 Higher 1784 .060 1799 .022 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1826 +3.5 SD ====================================================================================================================================

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PART 7: DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS: de22h 13:46 Thu 22 Dec 2005 Page 6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corr //-------- Unfiltered --------\\ //---- Filtered -----\\ No. No. No. with Mean Max Std Auto Mean Max Std Auto AR Seq Series Interval Years Segmt Flags Master msmt msmt dev corr sens value dev corr () --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- 1 ac1w006B 1749 1841 93 5 0 .735 1.16 4.00 .955 .828 .318 2.67 .533 -.021 1 2 ac1n003A 1771 1842 72 4 0 .531 1.26 4.93 .848 .732 .312 2.69 .443 .020 1 3 ac1n003B 1783 1840 58 3 0 .578 1.79 3.98 .832 .454 .388 2.69 .649 -.021 1 4 ac1n006B 1794 1840 47 3 0 .483 2.08 3.62 .722 .472 .268 2.64 .540 .089 1 5 ac1n007B 1780 1841 62 3 0 .671 1.61 3.81 .883 .826 .258 2.63 .578 -.020 1 6 ac1w007B 1780 1841 62 3 0 .574 1.08 2.16 .345 .457 .239 2.83 .510 .024 1 7 ac1w007A 1780 1841 62 3 0 .554 1.20 2.92 .488 .618 .262 2.70 .568 .046 1 8 ac2w007A 1754 1842 89 5 0 .810 1.46 4.74 .783 .744 .235 2.68 .462 .012 1 9 ac2w007B 1768 1842 75 4 0 .643 1.58 3.80 .572 .715 .217 2.96 .697 .043 1 10 ac2w003A 1769 1841 73 4 0 .742 1.80 5.18 1.151 .725 .307 2.67 .559 -.010 1 11 ac2e005C 1769 1841 73 4 0 .642 1.67 4.75 .835 .676 .305 2.58 .453 .060 1 12 AC2005a 1765 1841 77 4 0 .732 1.48 3.81 .683 .548 .335 2.58 .408 -.077 4 13 ac2w008A 1764 1841 78 4 0 .722 1.31 3.53 .748 .806 .289 2.67 .499 -.014 1 14 acmE007B 1770 1841 72 4 0 .649 1.01 4.03 .823 .776 .327 2.83 .517 -.049 1 15 ac2e006a 1765 1841 77 4 0 .705 1.48 4.42 1.034 .832 .257 2.70 .571 .020 1 16 ac2w008C 1760 1840 81 4 0 .763 1.55 5.42 1.161 .840 .318 2.66 .557 -.047 1 17 ac2e008a 1779 1840 62 4 0 .501 1.63 3.64 .722 .664 .253 2.99 .546 .031 1 18 ac2e004c 1771 1841 71 4 0 .638 1.26 4.33 .930 .852 .240 2.70 .508 -.007 1 19 ac1e008c 1772 1842 71 4 0 .681 1.17 3.57 .621 .836 .211 2.83 .456 -.048 1 20 ac1n002c 1769 1842 74 4 0 .553 1.00 3.93 .621 .678 .283 2.86 .615 .073 1 21 ac2s003c 1777 1841 65 4 1 .476 2.06 3.46 .698 .517 .282 2.62 .539 -.048 1 22 ac1n005a 1774 1840 67 4 0 .583 1.72 5.68 1.169 .821 .320 2.51 .412 .026 1 23 ac2e006b 1779 1842 64 4 0 .673 1.35 3.26 .578 .742 .211 2.49 .391 .040 1 24 ac2s006a 1774 1842 69 4 2 .496 1.57 4.59 1.122 .861 .239 2.88 .494 -.037 1 25 ac1e008b 1772 1841 70 4 0 .637 1.33 3.86 .532 .587 .249 2.56 .483 -.069 2 26 ac2e007a 1780 1841 62 3 0 .667 1.33 3.58 .746 .787 .263 2.61 .535 -.078 1 27 ac2e007c 1774 1841 68 4 0 .779 1.32 3.99 .771 .747 .249 2.71 .559 -.011 1 28 ac2s002b 1761 1840 80 4 0 .618 1.13 4.90 1.066 .837 .299 2.62 .497 .015 2 29 ac2s004b 1764 1841 78 4 0 .507 1.05 2.08 .395 .610 .235 2.68 .506 .021 1 30 acmw007a 1775 1841 67 4 0 .589 1.15 4.97 .895 .780 .324 2.72 .485 -.030 1 31 ac2w007c 1756 1842 87 5 0 .778 1.30 4.62 .725 .686 .264 2.74 .471 .033 1 32 ac1n007a 1771 1841 71 4 0 .796 1.62 4.81 1.191 .876 .241 2.63 .510 -.012 1 33 ac2s002a 1766 1838 73 3 0 .695 1.20 4.83 .977 .753 .334 2.63 .466 .036 2 34 ac2e004b 1774 1842 69 4 1 .606 1.47 4.29 .987 .821 .282 2.68 .551 -.081 1 35 ac1e006c 1770 1841 72 4 0 .859 1.17 3.86 .733 .742 .346 2.60 .489 -.014 2 36 ac2e004a 1769 1841 73 4 0 .655 1.30 4.85 .986 .800 .248 2.70 .448 -.031 1 37 ac1w008b 1775 1840 66 4 0 .750 1.27 2.61 .556 .738 .247 2.56 .459 -.072 1 38 ac2w008d 1770 1840 71 4 0 .813 1.17 4.41 .899 .820 .310 2.59 .542 -.023 1 39 ac1w008c 1779 1841 63 4 0 .724 1.24 2.75 .478 .506 .283 2.77 .579 .031 1 --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- Total or mean: 2764 152 4 .662 1.38 5.68 .808 .727 .279 2.99 .514 -.006 - = [ COFECHA DE22HCOF ] = -

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Appendix 3: COFECHA output showing (1) the crossdating among the eastern red cedar cores used to construct the master dating chronology, and (2) the dating of the cores from Alfred’s cabin against the master chronology. [] Dendrochronology Program Library Run TEST Program COF 14:31 Thu 22 Dec 2005 Page 1 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ QUALITY CONTROL AND DATING CHECK OF TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS Title of run: test File of DATED series: JUVI_cut.txt File of UNDATED series: hermitage.txt CONTENTS: Part 1: Title page, options selected, summary, absent rings by series Part 2: Histogram of time spans Part 3: Master series with sample depth and absent rings by year Part 4: Bar plot of Master Dating Series Part 5: Correlation by segment of each series with Master Part 6: Potential problems: low correlation, divergent year-to-year changes, absent rings, outliers Part 7: Descriptive statistics Part 8: Undated series - adjustments for highest correlations RUN CONTROL OPTIONS SELECTED VALUE 1 Cubic smoothing spline 50% wavelength cutoff for filtering 32 years 2 Segments examined are 40 years lagged successively by 20 years 3 Autoregressive model applied A Residuals are used in master dating series and testing 4 Series transformed to logarithms Y Each series log-transformed for master dating series and testing 5 CORRELATION is Pearson (parametric, quantitative) Critical correlation, 99% confidence level .3665 6 Master dating series saved N 7 Ring measurements listed N 8 Parts printed 12345678 9 Absent rings are omitted from master series and segment correlations (Y) Time span of Master dating series is 1700 to 1900 201 years Continuous time span is 1700 to 1900 201 years Portion with two or more series is 1700 to 1900 201 years **************************************** *C* Number of dated series 46 *C* *O* Master series 1700 1900 201 yrs *O* *F* Total rings in all series 4284 *F* *E* Total dated rings checked 4284 *E* *C* Series intercorrelation .438 *C* *H* Average mean sensitivity .297 *H* *A* Segments, possible problems 71 *A* *** Mean length of series 93.1 *** **************************************** ABSENT RINGS listed by SERIES: (See Master Dating Series for absent rings listed by year) MCRC12A 1 absent rings: 1855 NBG112A 1 absent rings: 1765 2 absent rings .047%

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PART 2: TIME PLOT OF TREE-RING SERIES: test 14:31 Thu 22 Dec 2005 Page 2 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1050 1100 1150 1200 1250 1300 1350 1400 1450 1500 1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 Ident Seq Time-span Yrs : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : -------- --- ---- ---- ---- . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <======> . . . MCRC16A 1 1830 1900 71 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<========> . . . MCRC16B 2 1815 1900 86 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <====> . . . MCRC09A 3 1850 1900 51 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <====> . . . MCRC09B 4 1850 1900 51 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <==========> . . . MCRC08A 5 1792 1900 109 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <===========> . . . MCRC08B 6 1788 1900 113 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <==========> . . . MCRC12A 7 1794 1900 107 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<========> . . . MCRC07A 8 1811 1900 90 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <======> . . . MCRC07B 9 1830 1900 71 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <======> . . . MCRC02B 10 1830 1900 71 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<========> . . . MCRC02A 11 1815 1900 86 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <====> . . . MCRC09C 12 1850 1900 51 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <====> . . . MCRC09D 13 1850 1900 51 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <======> . . . MCRC07C 14 1839 1900 62 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <======> . . . MCRC07D 15 1839 1900 62 . . . . . . . . . . . . . <==============> . . . . NB322A 16 1700 1859 160 . . . . . . . . . . . . . <=============>. . . . . NB322B 17 1700 1849 150 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<========> . . . NB234A 18 1814 1900 87 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<=======>. . . . NB234B 19 1815 1890 76 . . . . . . . . . . . . . <=======> . . . . . . NB266B1 20 1700 1780 81 . . . . . . . . . . . . . <========>. . . . . . NB266A2 21 1700 1790 91 . . . . . . . . . . . . . <========>. . . . . . NB266B2 22 1700 1790 91 . . . . . . . . . . . . . <==> . . . . . . . NB288A 23 1700 1731 32 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <==========> . . . NB334A 24 1798 1900 103 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <==========> . . . NB334B 25 1798 1900 103 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <======> . . . NB347A 26 1830 1900 71 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<========> . . . NB350A 27 1817 1900 84 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<========> . . . NB350B 28 1817 1900 84 . . . . . . . . . . . . . <==========> . . . . . NB367A 29 1700 1811 112 . . . . . . . . . . . . . <==========> . . . . . NB367B 30 1700 1812 113 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <================> . . . NB373A 31 1737 1900 164 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <================> . . . NB373B 32 1737 1900 164 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <==============> . . . NBB373A 33 1756 1900 145 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <==============> . . . NBB373B 34 1756 1900 145 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <==============> . . . NBC373A 35 1755 1900 146 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<========> . . . NB387A 36 1811 1900 90 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<========> . . . NB387B 37 1812 1900 89 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<========> . . . NB389A 38 1812 1900 89 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<========> . . . NB389B 39 1812 1900 89 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <=========> . . . NB395A 40 1800 1900 101 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <====> . . . NB406A 41 1850 1900 51 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <====> . . . NB406B 42 1850 1900 51 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<========> . . . NB407A 43 1813 1900 88 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <====> . . . NB407B 44 1850 1900 51 . . . . . . . . . . . . . <===================> . . . NBG112A 45 1700 1900 201 . . . . . . . . . . . . . <===>. . . . . . . NBG112B 46 1700 1749 50 : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : 1050 1100 1150 1200 1250 1300 1350 1400 1450 1500 1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

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PART 3: Master Dating Series: test 14:31 Thu 22 Dec 2005 Page 3 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ 1700 .491 10 1750 -.862 10 1800 .487 16 1850 -.210 38 1900 -.875 36 1701 .941 10 1751 -.980 10 1801 -.499 16 1851 -.737 38 1702 -.182 10 1752 -1.778 10 1802 -1.077 16 1852 -.160 38 1703 .495 10 1753 1.124 10 1803 -.225 16 1853 .132 38 1704 .479 10 1754 .166 10 1804 .417 16 1854 .037 38 1705 -1.804 10 1755 -1.730 11 1805 .486 16 1855 -.949 38 1 1706 -.918 10 1756 .881 13 1806 .909 16 1856 -1.549 38 1707 -1.714 10 1757 1.589 13 1807 .196 16 1857 .372 38 1708 -2.530 10 1758 .514 13 1808 .434 16 1858 -.512 38 1709 1.014 10 1759 .219 13 1809 -1.143 16 1859 .188 38 1710 1.529 10 1760 -.151 13 1810 1.371 16 1860 .917 37 1711 1.254 10 1761 -.253 13 1811 -.623 18 1861 1.191 37 1712 .794 10 1762 .247 13 1812 -1.049 20 1862 .154 37 1713 .983 10 1763 .148 13 1813 -1.443 20 1863 .807 37 1714 .350 10 1764 -.419 13 1814 -.123 21 1864 .671 37 1715 1.331 10 1765 -1.871 13 1 1815 -.116 24 1865 .027 37 1716 .925 10 1766 -.474 13 1816 -.489 24 1866 .524 37 1717 -.642 10 1767 1.141 13 1817 .095 26 1867 .083 37 1718 -.022 10 1768 1.318 13 1818 1.329 26 1868 -1.054 37 1719 -1.048 10 1769 .773 13 1819 -.088 26 1869 -.256 37 1720 .174 10 1770 .814 13 1820 -.110 26 1870 .017 37 1721 -.340 10 1771 .966 13 1821 -1.923 26 1871 .195 37 1722 -1.181 10 1772 -2.794 13 1822 .755 26 1872 -1.062 37 1723 -1.041 10 1773 -1.612 13 1823 -.157 26 1873 .918 37 1724 .147 10 1774 -1.540 13 1824 .329 26 1874 .461 37 1725 .381 10 1775 -.515 13 1825 .880 26 1875 .963 37 1726 -.816 10 1776 1.423 13 1826 -.796 26 1876 .889 37 1727 1.613 10 1777 -.112 13 1827 .957 26 1877 -.423 37 1728 2.130 10 1778 -.647 13 1828 -.258 26 1878 .328 37 1729 -.034 10 1779 -.015 13 1829 .099 26 1879 -1.769 37 1730 -1.109 10 1780 .629 13 1830 .758 30 1880 -1.792 37 1731 .416 10 1781 1.895 12 1831 1.264 30 1881 -2.149 37 1732 1.279 9 1782 .885 12 1832 -1.068 30 1882 1.276 37 1733 -2.162 9 1783 1.431 12 1833 -1.155 30 1883 -.029 37 1734 -1.104 9 1784 -1.453 12 1834 .424 30 1884 .022 37 1735 -2.446 9 1785 -1.171 12 1835 .443 30 1885 -.183 37 1736 -1.021 9 1786 .469 12 1836 -1.293 30 1886 -.745 37 1737 -.154 11 1787 1.174 12 1837 .665 30 1887 -.454 37 1738 .196 11 1788 .130 13 1838 -.292 30 1888 -.124 37 1739 .929 11 1789 .764 13 1839 -1.061 32 1889 1.771 37 1740 -.670 11 1790 .175 13 1840 -.312 32 1890 1.000 37 1741 .744 11 1791 -.668 11 1841 -.124 32 1891 -.091 36 1742 1.638 11 1792 -1.592 12 1842 1.238 32 1892 1.368 36 1743 1.066 11 1793 .903 12 1843 .453 32 1893 2.160 36 1744 1.983 11 1794 -.821 13 1844 .041 32 1894 .845 36 1745 .249 11 1795 .844 13 1845 .576 32 1895 -.689 36 1746 -.407 11 1796 1.157 13 1846 1.328 32 1896 -1.831 36 1747 -.410 11 1797 .054 13 1847 -.543 32 1897 1.265 36 1748 .186 11 1798 -.468 15 1848 -.809 32 1898 -.681 36 1749 -.047 11 1799 -1.075 15 1849 1.255 32 1899 -1.412 36

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PART 4: Master Bar Plot: test 14:31 Thu 22 Dec 2005 Page 4 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value 1700-------B 1750--c 1800-------B 1850----a 1900--d 1701--------D 1751-d 1801---b 1851--c 1702----a 1752g 1802-d 1852----a 1703-------B 1753---------D 1803----a 1853-----A 1704-------B 1754------A 1804-------B 1854-----@ 1705g 1755g 1805-------B 1855--d 1706--d 1756--------D 1806--------D 1856f 1707g 1757----------F 1807------A 1857-------A 1708j 1758-------B 1808-------B 1858---b 1709--------D 1759------A 1809-e 1859------A 1710----------F 1760----a 1810----------E 1860--------D 1711---------E 1761----a 1811--b 1861---------E 1712--------C 1762------A 1812-d 1862------A 1713--------D 1763-----A 1813-f 1863--------C 1714------A 1764---b 1814----@ 1864-------C 1715---------E 1765g 1815----@ 1865-----@ 1716--------D 1766---b 1816---b 1866-------B 1717--c 1767---------E 1817-----@ 1867-----@ 1718-----@ 1768---------E 1818---------E 1868-d 1719-d 1769--------C 1819----@ 1869----a 1720------A 1770--------C 1820----@ 1870-----@ 1721---a 1771--------D 1821h 1871------A 1722-e 1772k 1822--------C 1872-d 1723-d 1773f 1823----a 1873--------D 1724-----A 1774f 1824------A 1874-------B 1725-------B 1775---b 1825--------D 1875--------D 1726--c 1776----------F 1826--c 1876--------D 1727----------F 1777----@ 1827--------D 1877---b 1728----------I 1778--c 1828----a 1878------A 1729-----@ 1779-----@ 1829-----@ 1879g 1730-d 1780-------C 1830--------C 1880g 1731-------B 1781----------H 1831---------E 1881i 1732---------E 1782--------D 1832-d 1882---------E 1733i 1783----------F 1833-e 1883-----@ 1734-d 1784f 1834-------B 1884-----@ 1735j 1785-e 1835-------B 1885----a 1736-d 1786-------B 1836-e 1886--c 1737----a 1787---------E 1837-------C 1887---b 1738------A 1788-----A 1838---a 1888----@ 1739--------D 1789--------C 1839-d 1889----------G 1740--c 1790------A 1840---a 1890--------D 1741--------C 1791--c 1841----@ 1891----@ 1742----------G 1792f 1842---------E 1892----------E 1743---------D 1793--------D 1843-------B 1893----------I 1744----------H 1794--c 1844-----@ 1894--------C 1745------A 1795--------C 1845-------B 1895--c 1746---b 1796---------E 1846---------E 1896g 1747---b 1797-----@ 1847---b 1897---------E 1748------A 1798---b 1848--c 1898--c 1749----@ 1799-d 1849---------E 1899-f

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PART 5: CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: test 14:31 Thu 22 Dec 2005 Page 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Correlations of 40-year dated segments, lagged 20 years Flags: A = correlation under .3665 but highest as dated; B = correlation higher at other than dated position Seq Series Time_span 1700 1720 1740 1760 1780 1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1739 1759 1779 1799 1819 1839 1859 1879 1899 1919 --- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 1 MCRC16A 1830 1900 .48 .35B .45B .44 2 MCRC16B 1815 1900 .52 .50 .52 .70 .69 3 MCRC09A 1850 1900 .01B .35A .35A 4 MCRC09B 1850 1900 .09B .26B .28A 5 MCRC08A 1792 1900 .47 .59 .48 .39 .43 .43 6 MCRC08B 1788 1900 .28A .58 .61 .56 .57 .57 7 MCRC12A 1794 1900 .48 .44 .39 .40 .54 .53 8 MCRC07A 1811 1900 .37 .38 .47 .45 .44 9 MCRC07B 1830 1900 .04B .21B .45 .47 10 MCRC02B 1830 1900 .43 .37 .46 .45 11 MCRC02A 1815 1900 .34B .34B .46 .35A .34A 12 MCRC09C 1850 1900 .27B .48 .46 13 MCRC09D 1850 1900 .09B .27B .31B 14 MCRC07C 1839 1900 .30A .34A .40 .39 15 MCRC07D 1839 1900 .38B .40B .39 .40 16 NB322A 1700 1859 -.01B .25B .47 .59 .57 .58 .32A 17 NB322B 1700 1849 .06B .21B .52 .62 .60 .50 .36A 18 NB234A 1814 1900 .32B .36A .52 .56 .53 19 NB234B 1815 1890 .22B .24B .47 .49 20 NB266B1 1700 1780 .76 .55 .13B .12B 21 NB266A2 1700 1790 .57 .46 .23B .21B 22 NB266B2 1700 1790 .64 .50 .27B .27B 23 NB288A 1700 1731 .18B 24 NB334A 1798 1900 .28A .26A .35A .44 .59 .56 25 NB334B 1798 1900 .30A .29A .34B .59 .61 .62 26 NB347A 1830 1900 .25A .15B .35A .35A 27 NB350A 1817 1900 .71 .69 .55 .45 .46 28 NB350B 1817 1900 .64 .62 .49 .41 .43 29 NB367A 1700 1811 .61 .58 .63 .46 .44 30 NB367B 1700 1812 .54 .52 .52 .47 .29B 31 NB373A 1737 1900 .66 .68 .67 .27B .12B .30A .43 .63 .63 32 NB373B 1737 1900 .62 .64 .66 .48 .28A .25B .36A .65 .64 33 NBB373A 1756 1900 .63 .64 .56 .54 .41 .41 .63 .62 34 NBB373B 1756 1900 .41 .45 .42 .45 .53 .43 .52 .52 35 NBC373A 1755 1900 .60 .56 .44 .30A .37B .50 .66 .65 36 NB387A 1811 1900 .55 .58 .48 .45 .44 37 NB387B 1812 1900 .60 .62 .41 .39 .38 38 NB389A 1812 1900 .68 .58 .20B .36A .36A 39 NB389B 1812 1900 .70 .69 .50 .57 .57 40 NB395A 1800 1900 .35A .39 .30A .72 .72 41 NB406A 1850 1900 .52 .53 .57 42 NB406B 1850 1900 .41 .48 .50 43 NB407A 1813 1900 .23B .17B .53 .57 .54 44 NB407B 1850 1900 .50 .61 .59 45 NBG112A 1700 1900 .63 .54 .32B .21B .13B .13B .32B .42 .38 .39 46 NBG112B 1700 1749 .52 .53 Av segment correlation .45 .49 .46 .46 .40 .43 .41 .39 .49 .49

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PART 6: POTENTIAL PROBLEMS: test 14:31 Thu 22 Dec 2005 Page 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ For each series with potential problems the following diagnostics may appear: [A] Correlations with master dating series of flagged 40-year segments of series filtered with 32-year spline, at every point from ten years earlier (-10) to ten years later (+10) than dated [B] Effect of those data values which most lower or raise correlation with master series Symbol following year indicates value in series is greater (>) or lesser (<) than master series value [C] Year-to-year changes very different from the mean change in other series [D] Absent rings (zero values) [E] Values which are statistical outliers from mean for the year ==================================================================================================================================== MCRC16A 1830 to 1900 71 years Series 1 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1840 1879 1 -.05 -.41 -.09 .26 -.38 -.10 .28 .12 .04 -.08 .35| .36*-.14 -.24 .12 -.16 -.32 .01 .14 .07 .00 1860 1899 1 -.29 -.19 -.10 -.16 -.15 -.32 .22 .03 .04 .00 .45| .48* - - - - - - - - - [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .423) is: Lower 1843< -.061 1871< -.028 1877> -.019 1881> -.018 1873< -.018 1896> -.018 Higher 1868 .016 1895 .016 1840 to 1879 segment: Lower 1843< -.079 1871< -.039 1877> -.037 1873< -.033 1856> -.018 1850> -.015 Higher 1855 .062 1868 .046 1860 to 1899 segment: Lower 1871< -.065 1877> -.037 1873< -.035 1881> -.030 1896> -.029 1891> -.011 Higher 1879 .029 1895 .025 ==================================================================================================================================== MCRC16B 1815 to 1900 86 years Series 2 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .574) is: Lower 1877> -.019 1827< -.017 1832> -.016 1824< -.015 1873< -.013 1833> -.012 Higher 1896 .020 1821 .019 ==================================================================================================================================== MCRC09A 1850 to 1900 51 years Series 3 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1850 1889 4 .18 .20 -.30 .34 .08 -.10 -.10 .02 -.25 -.10 .01|-.12 .19 .20 .35* .27 -.09 .04 -.06 -.02 -.24 1860 1899 0 .18 .08 -.15 .12 -.06 .00 -.18 .02 -.16 -.03 .35*-.16 - - - - - - - - - 1861 1900 0 .17 .10 -.18 .06 -.07 .05 -.10 -.03 -.11 .00 .35* - - - - - - - - - - [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .252) is: Lower 1855> -.044 1875< -.038 1868> -.032 1865< -.030 1880> -.026 1856> -.019 Higher 1896 .080 1893 .044 1850 to 1889 segment: Lower 1855> -.051 1875< -.046 1868> -.037 1880> -.028 1858> -.019 1856> -.018 Higher 1889 .054 1873 .052 1860 to 1899 segment: Lower 1875< -.045 1865< -.045 1868> -.044 1880> -.036 1879> -.024 1885> -.018 Higher 1896 .087 1893 .044 1861 to 1900 segment:

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Lower 1865< -.045 1875< -.045 1868> -.044 1880> -.037 1879> -.026 1885> -.017 Higher 1896 .084 1893 .046 ==================================================================================================================================== MCRC09B 1850 to 1900 51 years Series 4 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1850 1889 -9 .23 .28*-.22 .22 .03 -.04 .02 .18 .00 .13 .09|-.24 -.06 -.14 -.09 .01 -.16 .20 -.01 -.07 -.31 1860 1899 -3 .18 .13 -.10 .20 -.08 .05 .22 .30*-.04 .15 .26|-.14 - - - - - - - - - 1861 1900 0 .15 .13 -.14 .13 -.09 .08 .27 .25 -.01 .18 .28* - - - - - - - - - - [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .216) is: Lower 1855> -.069 1865< -.044 1882< -.025 1877> -.018 1880> -.016 1857< -.014 Higher 1893 .069 1881 .039 1850 to 1889 segment: Lower 1855> -.086 1865< -.030 1882< -.025 1877> -.023 1880> -.021 1868> -.017 Higher 1872 .060 1881 .059 1860 to 1899 segment: Lower 1865< -.059 1882< -.030 1877> -.023 1880> -.020 1895> -.018 1879> -.017 Higher 1893 .074 1881 .047 1861 to 1900 segment: Lower 1865< -.063 1882< -.031 1877> -.023 1880> -.021 1879> -.019 1895> -.018 Higher 1893 .074 1881 .043 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1855 +3.6 SD ==================================================================================================================================== MCRC08A 1792 to 1900 109 years Series 5 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .463) is: Lower 1863< -.017 1896> -.016 1877> -.013 1794> -.011 1799> -.008 1824< -.008 Higher 1792 .017 1832 .016 ==================================================================================================================================== MCRC08B 1788 to 1900 113 years Series 6 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1788 1827 0 .25 -.17 -.02 -.21 -.29 .10 .20 -.14 -.01 .04 .28*-.36 .08 .02 -.21 .06 -.17 .19 .21 .14 .17 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .491) is: Lower 1799> -.028 1789< -.019 1801> -.011 1824< -.010 1796< -.009 1797> -.009 Higher 1881 .019 1893 .017 1788 to 1827 segment: Lower 1799> -.073 1789< -.057 1824< -.029 1801> -.027 1796< -.027 1803< -.022 Higher 1792 .068 1821 .046 ==================================================================================================================================== MCRC12A 1794 to 1900 107 years Series 7 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .437) is: Lower 1855< -.036 1863< -.016 1846< -.016 1830< -.015 1800< -.014 1834< -.013 Higher 1893 .015 1880 .014 [C] Year-to-year changes diverging by over 4.0 std deviations: 1854 1855 -4.1 SD 1855 1856 5.2 SD [D] 1 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1855 -.949 38 1

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[E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1855 -7.4 SD ==================================================================================================================================== MCRC07A 1811 to 1900 90 years Series 8 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .417) is: Lower 1881> -.043 1871< -.028 1832> -.021 1863< -.018 1825< -.016 1858> -.014 Higher 1880 .020 1896 .017 ==================================================================================================================================== MCRC07B 1830 to 1900 71 years Series 9 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1830 1869 -8 -.18 -.03 .28* .06 -.20 .20 .12 .21 -.18 -.03 .04|-.25 -.35 .18 -.04 -.01 .19 .19 .03 .16 -.12 1840 1879 9 -.26 -.13 .26 .01 -.20 .24 .10 .27 -.09 -.05 .21|-.21 -.13 -.14 -.04 -.08 .08 .17 -.01 .31*-.28 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .290) is: Lower 1859< -.028 1832> -.028 1863< -.028 1839> -.026 1844< -.022 1896> -.021 Higher 1897 .024 1893 .022 1830 to 1869 segment: Lower 1863< -.046 1832> -.046 1839> -.044 1859< -.039 1860< -.019 1847> -.019 Higher 1837 .036 1833 .030 1840 to 1879 segment: Lower 1863< -.049 1859< -.046 1844< -.029 1847> -.029 1858> -.026 1856> -.025 Higher 1872 .048 1879 .048 ==================================================================================================================================== MCRC02B 1830 to 1900 71 years Series 10 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .426) is: Lower 1875< -.057 1838< -.029 1882< -.022 1839> -.016 1876< -.009 1856> -.009 Higher 1881 .025 1893 .021 ==================================================================================================================================== MCRC02A 1815 to 1900 86 years Series 11 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1815 1854 -7 -.19 -.10 -.16 .35*-.23 -.22 .20 -.01 -.03 -.35 .34|-.09 -.25 .18 .18 .21 .00 -.13 .25 -.02 -.13 1820 1859 -7 -.20 -.08 -.13 .34*-.23 -.18 .18 -.11 -.10 -.35 .34|-.02 -.19 .32 .15 .10 -.05 -.15 .27 -.01 -.18 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 1860 1899 0 .03 -.25 .02 .12 -.22 -.38 -.22 .21 .08 -.06 .35* .08 - - - - - - - - - 1861 1900 0 .03 -.22 -.01 .08 -.24 -.32 -.13 .16 .12 -.05 .34* - - - - - - - - - - [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .354) is: Lower 1821> -.049 1881> -.028 1875< -.015 1896> -.014 1894< -.013 1830< -.012 Higher 1893 .025 1836 .023 1815 to 1854 segment: Lower 1821> -.131 1831< -.026 1830< -.025 1832> -.017 1828< -.016 1845< -.015 Higher 1836 .059 1847 .029 1820 to 1859 segment: Lower 1821> -.116 1831< -.028 1830< -.028 1828< -.024 1858> -.021 1845< -.017 Higher 1836 .054 1822 .030 1860 to 1899 segment: Lower 1881> -.055 1875< -.031 1894< -.027 1896> -.027 1885> -.019 1895> -.016 Higher 1893 .048 1868 .035 1861 to 1900 segment: Lower 1881> -.057 1875< -.031 1896> -.028 1894< -.027 1885> -.019 1895> -.017 Higher 1893 .053 1868 .034 ====================================================================================================================================

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MCRC09C 1850 to 1900 51 years Series 12 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1850 1889 5 .03 .11 -.20 .24 -.02 -.05 .05 .01 -.16 .10 .27|-.20 .02 -.11 .23 .28*-.07 .05 -.04 -.05 -.22 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .381) is: Lower 1855> -.048 1868> -.043 1879> -.040 1857< -.032 1899> -.020 1863< -.018 Higher 1881 .050 1896 .036 1850 to 1889 segment: Lower 1855> -.063 1868> -.056 1879> -.048 1857< -.045 1863< -.026 1885> -.014 Higher 1881 .090 1872 .042 ==================================================================================================================================== MCRC09D 1850 to 1900 51 years Series 13 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1850 1889 -7 .10 .15 -.31 .22* .07 .05 -.04 .22 .14 -.11 .09|-.11 -.02 .00 -.21 .04 .05 .15 -.02 -.10 -.23 1860 1899 -3 .10 .06 -.19 .19 .05 .14 .30 .30* .05 .15 .27|-.29 - - - - - - - - - 1861 1900 -4 .05 .05 -.24 .11 .03 .17 .34* .25 .07 .20 .31| - - - - - - - - - - [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .212) is: Lower 1879> -.031 1868> -.028 1861< -.026 1851> -.023 1858> -.020 1895> -.017 Higher 1893 .068 1881 .053 1850 to 1889 segment: Lower 1879> -.039 1868> -.035 1861< -.029 1851> -.029 1858> -.025 1856> -.019 Higher 1881 .081 1876 .027 1860 to 1899 segment: Lower 1879> -.044 1868> -.041 1861< -.038 1895> -.025 1860< -.023 1865< -.018 Higher 1893 .083 1881 .078 1861 to 1900 segment: Lower 1879> -.046 1868> -.041 1861< -.039 1895> -.025 1865< -.021 1884< -.014 Higher 1893 .081 1881 .071 ==================================================================================================================================== MCRC07C 1839 to 1900 62 years Series 14 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1839 1878 0 .10 -.32 .05 -.09 -.46 -.16 .19 -.08 .02 .04 .30*-.06 .05 -.06 -.09 -.07 -.16 .14 -.12 .02 -.16 1840 1879 0 .09 -.33 .03 -.06 -.48 -.17 .16 -.09 .04 .02 .34*-.01 .09 -.10 -.08 -.07 -.15 .15 -.11 .02 -.21 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .387) is: Lower 1866< -.136 1843< -.027 1881> -.023 1885> -.022 1849< -.013 1870< -.009 Higher 1896 .030 1889 .027 1839 to 1878 segment: Lower 1866< -.192 1843< -.027 1849< -.023 1877> -.017 1839> -.015 1856> -.014 Higher 1872 .039 1842 .034 1840 to 1879 segment: Lower 1866< -.194 1843< -.030 1849< -.022 1877> -.016 1856> -.015 1870< -.010 Higher 1872 .033 1842 .031 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1866 -5.0 SD ==================================================================================================================================== MCRC07D 1839 to 1900 62 years Series 15 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1839 1878 -4 -.25 -.21 .14 .09 -.42 .08 .52* .07 -.12 .01 .38|-.04 -.23 .05 -.10 -.13 -.35 .41 .07 .21 -.08

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1840 1879 -4 -.25 -.23 .11 .13 -.41 .07 .50* .10 -.13 .02 .40|-.03 -.20 .01 -.10 -.13 -.35 .40 .09 .22 -.12 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .386) is: Lower 1881> -.068 1859< -.022 1868> -.019 1899> -.017 1858> -.016 1839> -.014 Higher 1896 .057 1882 .026 1839 to 1878 segment: Lower 1868> -.047 1859< -.046 1858> -.039 1839> -.036 1849< -.020 1861< -.016 Higher 1855 .072 1872 .057 1840 to 1879 segment: Lower 1859< -.046 1868> -.044 1858> -.036 1879> -.019 1849< -.017 1861< -.015 Higher 1855 .058 1872 .048 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1881 +3.1 SD ==================================================================================================================================== NB322A 1700 to 1859 160 years Series 16 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1700 1739 5 - - - - - - - - - - -.01| .04 -.05 .01 .06 .19*-.17 -.13 -.05 -.12 .02 1720 1759 10 -.14 -.01 -.14 -.04 .06 .20 .02 .15 -.02 .32 .25|-.28 -.29 .19 -.02 .03 -.17 -.13 -.11 .12 .32* - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 1820 1859 0 -.05 .01 -.25 .22 .02 .01 .10 -.17 -.06 .20 .32*-.13 -.05 .13 .03 -.16 .01 -.09 -.02 -.38 -.06 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .309) is: Lower 1733> -.037 1705> -.025 1842< -.014 1703< -.013 1729> -.012 1852< -.011 Higher 1772 .022 1755 .016 1700 to 1739 segment: Lower 1733> -.092 1705> -.063 1703< -.034 1729> -.032 1719> -.024 1717> -.020 Higher 1735 .063 1708 .044 1720 to 1759 segment: Lower 1733> -.132 1729> -.042 1743< -.016 1747> -.014 1721> -.014 1745> -.013 Higher 1755 .072 1752 .047 1820 to 1859 segment: Lower 1842< -.079 1852< -.063 1857< -.035 1856> -.030 1850> -.025 1847> -.020 Higher 1821 .053 1832 .035 [E] Outliers 2 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1705 +3.1 SD; 1733 +3.5 SD ==================================================================================================================================== NB322B 1700 to 1849 150 years Series 17 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1700 1739 5 - - - - - - - - - - .06| .02 -.02 .08 .05 .18*-.19 -.14 -.17 -.13 .04 1720 1759 -1 -.09 .03 -.13 -.04 -.02 .14 .02 .12 -.07 .35* .21|-.21 -.16 .22 .02 .11 -.19 -.12 -.20 .06 .23 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 1810 1849 0 .03 .06 -.17 .07 .15 -.10 -.06 -.07 -.01 .25 .36*-.24 -.09 .03 .00 -.25 .16 -.01 .14 -.30 -.02 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .356) is: Lower 1705> -.027 1728< -.023 1822< -.021 1842< -.019 1733> -.018 1729> -.016 Higher 1772 .018 1755 .016 1700 to 1739 segment: Lower 1705> -.067 1728< -.052 1729> -.039 1733> -.032 1703< -.023 1719> -.018 Higher 1708 .058 1735 .053 1720 to 1759 segment: Lower 1728< -.056 1733> -.051 1729> -.046 1721> -.019 1747> -.019 1745> -.017 Higher 1755 .078 1735 .040 1810 to 1849 segment: Lower 1822< -.109 1842< -.098 1812> -.029 1838> -.015 1843> -.012 1815> -.009 Higher 1813 .042 1846 .034 [C] Year-to-year changes diverging by over 4.0 std deviations: 1728 1729 4.0 SD

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[E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1705 +3.1 SD ==================================================================================================================================== NB234A 1814 to 1900 87 years Series 18 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1814 1853 -2 -.06 -.15 -.16 -.06 -.06 -.04 -.17 .31 .33*-.23 .32| .03 -.08 .17 -.06 .05 -.08 -.03 -.24 .04 .01 1820 1859 0 -.07 -.22 .04 -.09 -.08 -.06 -.15 .32 .31 -.27 .36*-.06 -.16 .13 -.05 -.18 -.05 -.06 -.27 .15 .06 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .426) is: Lower 1821> -.034 1900> -.016 1896> -.014 1899> -.009 1851> -.008 1898> -.007 Higher 1879 .046 1881 .028 1814 to 1853 segment: Lower 1821> -.106 1851> -.031 1823< -.028 1835< -.022 1837< -.020 1828> -.019 Higher 1832 .056 1827 .037 1820 to 1859 segment: Lower 1821> -.095 1823< -.029 1851> -.026 1859< -.022 1835< -.021 1837< -.019 Higher 1832 .042 1827 .033 [C] Year-to-year changes diverging by over 4.0 std deviations: 1881 1882 5.0 SD [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1881 -6.7 SD ==================================================================================================================================== NB234B 1815 to 1890 76 years Series 19 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1815 1854 -3 -.05 -.18 -.13 -.18 .14 -.09 -.15 .31* .29 -.19 .22| .02 .01 .10 .13 -.11 .05 -.16 -.32 .11 -.17 1820 1859 -3 .04 -.29 -.03 .00 .02 -.13 -.20 .34* .30 -.28 .24|-.01 -.09 -.01 .07 -.14 .01 -.05 -.26 .06 .08 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .381) is: Lower 1821> -.060 1858< -.043 1817< -.015 1831< -.011 1870< -.011 1855> -.011 Higher 1879 .022 1832 .021 1815 to 1854 segment: Lower 1821> -.128 1817< -.032 1828> -.021 1831< -.020 1835< -.018 1818< -.016 Higher 1832 .068 1846 .040 1820 to 1859 segment: Lower 1821> -.091 1858< -.029 1831< -.017 1855> -.016 1835< -.014 1856> -.014 Higher 1832 .043 1846 .028 ==================================================================================================================================== NB266B1 1700 to 1780 81 years Series 20 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1740 1779 1 .02 .10 -.21 -.11 .27 -.05 -.05 -.16 -.20 -.11 .13| .45*-.12 -.08 -.01 -.14 .08 .13 -.02 -.18 -.19 1741 1780 1 .01 .10 -.18 -.13 .26 -.07 -.06 -.16 -.20 -.11 .12| .44*-.11 -.07 .00 -.14 .07 .12 -.02 -.18 -.20 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .406) is: Lower 1772> -.052 1771< -.047 1761< -.046 1755> -.038 1775> -.023 1774> -.016 Higher 1728 .026 1735 .025 1740 to 1779 segment: Lower 1771< -.067 1772> -.062 1755> -.057 1761< -.039 1775> -.031 1774> -.024 Higher 1765 .059 1753 .038 1741 to 1780 segment: Lower 1771< -.065 1772> -.061 1755> -.057 1761< -.035 1775> -.032 1774> -.024 Higher 1765 .062 1744 .037 [C] Year-to-year changes diverging by over 4.0 std deviations:

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1771 1772 4.8 SD [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1775 +3.1 SD ==================================================================================================================================== NB266A2 1700 to 1790 91 years Series 21 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1740 1779 1 .12 .20 -.05 .03 .00 -.02 -.31 -.25 .02 .02 .23| .44*-.27 -.12 .07 .10 -.06 .05 -.22 -.17 -.07 1751 1790 1 -.06 .17 -.11 -.04 .07 -.15 -.35 -.29 -.01 .09 .21| .44*-.34 -.09 .08 .08 .06 .10 -.15 -.14 -.21 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .407) is: Lower 1772> -.053 1755> -.033 1771< -.026 1761< -.017 1754< -.015 1717> -.009 Higher 1728 .022 1733 .019 1740 to 1779 segment: Lower 1772> -.100 1755> -.064 1771< -.055 1754< -.030 1761< -.028 1745< -.016 Higher 1744 .042 1765 .041 1751 to 1790 segment: Lower 1772> -.093 1755> -.063 1771< -.051 1754< -.027 1761< -.025 1787< -.011 Higher 1765 .042 1776 .040 [C] Year-to-year changes diverging by over 4.0 std deviations: 1771 1772 4.4 SD ==================================================================================================================================== NB266B2 1700 to 1790 91 years Series 22 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1740 1779 1 .18 .22 -.08 .05 -.02 -.08 -.29 -.23 -.02 .10 .27| .35*-.28 -.13 .10 .08 -.13 .07 -.18 -.14 -.04 1751 1790 1 .02 .13 -.15 -.03 .06 -.18 -.30 -.26 -.07 .15 .27| .34*-.32 -.09 .10 .04 .00 .12 -.15 -.10 -.14 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .443) is: Lower 1772> -.058 1761< -.037 1755> -.027 1709< -.026 1771< -.018 1754< -.009 Higher 1765 .021 1733 .021 1740 to 1779 segment: Lower 1772> -.112 1761< -.054 1755> -.052 1771< -.032 1754< -.015 1759< -.014 Higher 1765 .061 1744 .038 1751 to 1790 segment: Lower 1772> -.110 1755> -.052 1761< -.050 1771< -.029 1754< -.013 1789< -.012 Higher 1765 .058 1776 .035 ==================================================================================================================================== NB288A 1700 to 1731 32 years Series 23 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1700 1731 10 - - - - - - - - - - .18| .02 -.03 .07 -.07 -.02 -.02 .19 -.20 -.34 .25* [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .184) is: Lower 1701< -.059 1707> -.041 1729> -.040 1700< -.026 1705> -.025 1702> -.017 Higher 1708 .043 1727 .037 1700 to 1731 segment: Lower 1701< -.059 1707> -.041 1729> -.040 1700< -.026 1705> -.025 1702> -.017 Higher 1708 .043 1727 .037 ==================================================================================================================================== NB334A 1798 to 1900 103 years Series 24

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[A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1798 1837 0 -.09 .12 .20 .18 -.21 -.08 .07 -.14 -.02 -.05 .28* .18 -.17 .11 -.27 -.14 .09 -.22 .11 -.29 .23 1800 1839 0 -.07 .10 .16 .17 -.15 -.17 .13 -.07 -.10 -.03 .26* .22 -.21 .05 -.25 -.12 .09 -.20 .13 -.27 .14 1820 1859 0 -.19 -.14 .16 .25 -.09 -.04 .05 .03 -.32 .07 .35* .17 -.19 .08 .21 -.09 -.15 -.07 .01 -.22 -.23 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .436) is: Lower 1864< -.054 1820< -.027 1806< -.026 1812> -.018 1846< -.017 1825< -.014 Higher 1879 .028 1882 .017 1798 to 1837 segment: Lower 1806< -.064 1820< -.060 1812> -.045 1825< -.033 1822< -.021 1832> -.018 Higher 1810 .030 1831 .029 1800 to 1839 segment: Lower 1806< -.066 1820< -.063 1812> -.044 1825< -.035 1822< -.022 1832> -.017 Higher 1810 .031 1831 .030 1820 to 1859 segment: Lower 1820< -.087 1846< -.044 1825< -.037 1832> -.024 1822< -.024 1850> -.020 Higher 1842 .044 1849 .038 ==================================================================================================================================== NB334B 1798 to 1900 103 years Series 25 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1798 1837 0 .06 .01 .08 .13 -.16 -.11 -.05 .04 .12 -.04 .30* .12 -.03 -.09 -.20 -.04 .18 -.27 -.13 -.08 .08 1800 1839 0 .12 -.03 .01 .11 -.07 -.30 .06 .19 -.03 -.01 .29* .19 -.09 -.22 -.16 .01 .18 -.24 -.06 -.06 -.10 1820 1859 -7 -.12 -.27 .11 .35*-.13 -.06 .19 .11 -.11 .14 .34| .04 -.16 -.12 .04 -.13 -.30 -.08 -.01 -.30 -.04 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .447) is: Lower 1846< -.021 1815< -.019 1840< -.019 1881> -.014 1813> -.013 1822< -.011 Higher 1879 .036 1849 .015 1798 to 1837 segment: Lower 1815< -.056 1822< -.032 1813> -.030 1806< -.027 1809> -.024 1800< -.016 Higher 1818 .042 1821 .027 1800 to 1839 segment: Lower 1815< -.067 1822< -.036 1806< -.030 1813> -.029 1838> -.024 1809> -.022 Higher 1818 .045 1821 .037 1820 to 1859 segment: Lower 1840< -.060 1846< -.058 1848> -.031 1838> -.030 1822< -.030 1850> -.022 Higher 1849 .059 1856 .043 ==================================================================================================================================== NB347A 1830 to 1900 71 years Series 26 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1830 1869 0 -.16 -.04 -.13 -.05 -.01 -.15 -.02 -.09 .17 .15 .25*-.03 .23 .17 .05 -.03 .07 -.30 -.42 -.23 -.11 1840 1879 2 -.01 .08 -.14 -.17 .01 .03 -.21 -.22 .31 .01 .15| .17 .32* .26 -.10 -.02 -.08 -.13 -.38 -.07 .00 1860 1899 0 .01 -.07 .21 -.26 -.10 -.28 .00 -.05 -.26 .21 .35* .28 - - - - - - - - - 1861 1900 0 .00 -.07 .20 -.25 -.10 -.27 .00 -.05 -.25 .21 .35* - - - - - - - - - - [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .309) is: Lower 1898> -.028 1848> -.024 1896> -.016 1857< -.014 1886> -.014 1846< -.014 Higher 1880 .039 1882 .025 1830 to 1869 segment: Lower 1848> -.058 1857< -.036 1846< -.035 1868> -.029 1847> -.029 1845< -.027 Higher 1861 .056 1831 .055 1840 to 1879 segment: Lower 1848> -.055 1857< -.033 1846< -.032 1847> -.027 1868> -.026 1845< -.024 Higher 1861 .064 1875 .046 1860 to 1899 segment: Lower 1898> -.044 1896> -.026 1886> -.022 1879> -.021 1868> -.021 1881> -.019 Higher 1880 .059 1882 .035 1861 to 1900 segment: Lower 1898> -.043 1896> -.026 1886> -.021 1879> -.021 1868> -.020 1881> -.019 Higher 1880 .055 1882 .036

49

==================================================================================================================================== NB350A 1817 to 1900 84 years Series 27 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .573) is: Lower 1896> -.036 1847> -.014 1895> -.011 1876< -.011 1885< -.010 1881> -.010 Higher 1821 .042 1856 .014 ==================================================================================================================================== NB350B 1817 to 1900 84 years Series 28 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .519) is: Lower 1885< -.044 1896> -.030 1829< -.022 1847> -.022 1893< -.017 1876< -.014 Higher 1821 .034 1856 .017 ==================================================================================================================================== NB367A 1700 to 1811 112 years Series 29 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .539) is: Lower 1729< -.021 1797< -.021 1794> -.016 1753< -.014 1730> -.013 1799> -.013 Higher 1772 .033 1733 .021 ==================================================================================================================================== NB367B 1700 to 1812 113 years Series 30 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1773 1812 -7 .00 -.13 .00 .32* .14 -.09 -.21 -.28 .30 .10 .29|-.23 -.18 -.24 -.17 .12 .10 .00 .08 -.18 .13 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .478) is: Lower 1729< -.024 1786< -.016 1779< -.014 1812> -.013 1811> -.013 1730> -.011 Higher 1733 .029 1772 .022 1773 to 1812 segment: Lower 1786< -.057 1779< -.045 1812> -.044 1811> -.042 1799> -.034 1794> -.021 Higher 1781 .055 1774 .042 ==================================================================================================================================== NB373A 1737 to 1900 164 years Series 31 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1780 1819 -6 .25 -.26 -.02 .11 .38* .08 -.14 .05 -.06 -.17 .27| .10 .03 -.10 .21 -.13 -.11 .24 .03 .03 -.19 1800 1839 1 -.13 -.15 .09 .07 .27 -.04 .06 .12 -.22 -.19 .12| .30*-.12 -.07 .30 -.21 -.05 .12 .09 .06 -.31 1820 1859 0 -.35 -.01 .26 .07 .05 -.02 .19 .02 -.14 -.21 .30* .15 -.36 .08 -.02 -.28 .00 .00 .22 -.05 -.14 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .473) is: Lower 1808< -.024 1821> -.017 1805< -.016 1820< -.013 1851> -.013 1842< -.010 Higher 1772 .050 1889 .011 1780 to 1819 segment: Lower 1808< -.082 1805< -.054 1818< -.031 1809> -.018 1813> -.017 1801> -.016 Higher 1781 .046 1794 .031 1800 to 1839 segment: Lower 1808< -.073 1805< -.051 1821> -.045 1818< -.030 1833> -.028 1820< -.022 Higher 1832 .040 1827 .038 1820 to 1859 segment: Lower 1821> -.064 1820< -.049 1842< -.048 1851> -.046 1833> -.034 1840< -.028 Higher 1832 .037 1827 .031 [C] Year-to-year changes diverging by over 4.0 std deviations: 1820 1821 5.0 SD

50

[E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1820 -4.9 SD ==================================================================================================================================== NB373B 1737 to 1900 164 years Series 32 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1800 1839 0 -.09 -.27 .23 -.01 .22 -.11 .24 .09 -.16 -.30 .28* .19 -.07 -.13 .27 -.09 -.09 .09 .00 .12 -.28 1820 1859 -8 -.31 -.07 .31* .00 .15 -.13 .30 .08 -.15 -.19 .25| .15 -.40 .08 -.11 -.17 -.04 -.07 .25 .09 -.29 1840 1879 0 -.18 .04 .14 -.26 -.04 -.13 -.10 .10 .13 -.03 .36* .07 -.08 .01 -.16 -.38 -.02 -.11 .01 -.03 -.01 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .507) is: Lower 1842< -.021 1821> -.014 1826> -.013 1833> -.012 1851> -.011 1820< -.010 Higher 1772 .048 1881 .011 1800 to 1839 segment: Lower 1826> -.049 1833> -.048 1821> -.047 1820< -.036 1825< -.026 1817< -.024 Higher 1822 .037 1832 .033 1820 to 1859 segment: Lower 1842< -.085 1826> -.043 1821> -.043 1833> -.042 1851> -.037 1820< -.027 Higher 1856 .037 1822 .035 1840 to 1879 segment: Lower 1842< -.105 1851> -.057 1872> -.038 1840< -.025 1870< -.017 1866< -.015 Higher 1856 .041 1875 .029 [C] Year-to-year changes diverging by over 4.0 std deviations: 1771 1772 -4.0 SD ==================================================================================================================================== NBB373A 1756 to 1900 145 years Series 33 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .561) is: Lower 1792> -.015 1851> -.015 1836> -.013 1758< -.012 1848> -.010 1833> -.010 Higher 1772 .014 1765 .012 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1896 -4.7 SD ==================================================================================================================================== NBB373B 1756 to 1900 145 years Series 34 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .462) is: Lower 1782< -.027 1773> -.015 1760< -.013 1836> -.013 1801> -.011 1761> -.011 Higher 1896 .013 1772 .012 ==================================================================================================================================== NBC373A 1755 to 1900 146 years Series 35 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1800 1839 0 -.03 -.19 .01 -.12 .11 -.02 .13 .27 -.22 -.14 .30* .17 -.09 -.10 .21 -.15 -.22 .27 -.09 .28 -.28 1820 1859 -4 -.32 -.04 .22 .03 .07 -.18 .38* .07 -.22 -.35 .37| .08 -.47 .16 .07 -.32 -.10 .11 .30 .10 -.20 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .513) is: Lower 1765> -.025 1821> -.022 1814< -.014 1851> -.013 1833> -.011 1866< -.011 Higher 1772 .053 1755 .013 1800 to 1839 segment: Lower 1821> -.076 1814< -.048 1833> -.038 1825< -.028 1813> -.026 1826> -.026 Higher 1832 .052 1831 .038 1820 to 1859 segment: Lower 1821> -.080 1842< -.050 1851> -.048 1833> -.040 1825< -.035 1826> -.026 Higher 1832 .052 1831 .034

51

==================================================================================================================================== NB387A 1811 to 1900 90 years Series 36 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .496) is: Lower 1880> -.029 1872> -.015 1811< -.013 1896> -.013 1831< -.013 1868> -.012 Higher 1881 .031 1849 .018 ==================================================================================================================================== NB387B 1812 to 1900 89 years Series 37 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .499) is: Lower 1880> -.029 1879> -.025 1817< -.016 1896> -.014 1868> -.014 1878< -.013 Higher 1881 .028 1849 .017 ==================================================================================================================================== NB389A 1812 to 1900 89 years Series 38 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1840 1879 9 -.26 .10 .15 .01 -.11 .24 -.02 .09 -.20 -.20 .20|-.14 -.06 .18 .25 -.20 -.12 .27 .23 .30* .16 1860 1899 0 -.25 -.04 .04 .00 .13 .19 .20 -.11 .05 -.04 .36* .04 - - - - - - - - - 1861 1900 0 -.25 -.03 .03 -.02 .12 .21 .23 -.13 .07 -.03 .36* - - - - - - - - - - [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .456) is: Lower 1861< -.030 1855> -.022 1876< -.020 1868> -.019 1834< -.016 1859< -.013 Higher 1821 .047 1836 .018 1840 to 1879 segment: Lower 1861< -.067 1855> -.054 1868> -.044 1876< -.044 1859< -.025 1856> -.016 Higher 1842 .058 1877 .040 1860 to 1899 segment: Lower 1861< -.054 1868> -.038 1876< -.036 1896> -.023 1871< -.015 1877< -.009 Higher 1889 .028 1881 .023 1861 to 1900 segment: Lower 1861< -.055 1868> -.037 1876< -.037 1896> -.023 1871< -.016 1877< -.012 Higher 1889 .029 1897 .023 ==================================================================================================================================== NB389B 1812 to 1900 89 years Series 39 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .607) is: Lower 1876< -.017 1856> -.016 1826> -.015 1869< -.011 1837< -.010 1875< -.010 Higher 1821 .035 1881 .017 ==================================================================================================================================== NB395A 1800 to 1900 101 years Series 40 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1800 1839 0 .12 .10 .09 .03 -.12 .11 .00 -.33 -.08 .19 .35*-.41 .05 .04 -.12 .09 -.06 -.03 .13 -.14 -.07 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 1840 1879 0 .15 .14 -.27 -.13 -.20 -.32 -.25 -.25 .01 -.08 .30* .13 .27 .10 .09 .10 .05 .11 -.05 -.02 -.24 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .400) is: Lower 1803< -.042 1832> -.026 1855> -.017 1801> -.017 1838> -.012 1849< -.010 Higher 1821 .051 1893 .020 1800 to 1839 segment: Lower 1803< -.066 1832> -.055 1801> -.031 1838> -.022 1816> -.016 1811> -.014 Higher 1821 .198 1833 .019 1840 to 1879 segment: Lower 1855> -.073 1849< -.036 1846< -.033 1858> -.032 1856> -.023 1876< -.022 Higher 1879 .118 1868 .036

52

[E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1821 -6.1 SD ==================================================================================================================================== NB406A 1850 to 1900 51 years Series 41 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .507) is: Lower 1864< -.053 1855> -.043 1897< -.040 1860< -.029 1896> -.027 1872> -.014 Higher 1879 .060 1856 .026 ==================================================================================================================================== NB406B 1850 to 1900 51 years Series 42 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .409) is: Lower 1855> -.050 1897< -.044 1872> -.029 1860< -.020 1858< -.016 1875< -.012 Higher 1879 .080 1882 .030 ==================================================================================================================================== NB407A 1813 to 1900 88 years Series 43 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1813 1852 7 -.19 -.11 -.13 .01 -.29 .17 -.20 -.12 -.01 -.10 .23|-.01 .06 .07 .02 .03 .19 .26*-.07 -.20 .24 1820 1859 6 -.18 -.07 .01 -.02 -.24 .25 -.19 -.18 -.05 -.16 .17|-.05 .02 .08 .13 -.08 .35* .28 -.16 -.11 .18 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .418) is: Lower 1821> -.037 1839> -.026 1867< -.024 1846< -.023 1899> -.018 1895< -.016 Higher 1879 .025 1882 .018 1813 to 1852 segment: Lower 1821> -.089 1839> -.070 1846< -.058 1834< -.033 1848> -.027 1823> -.021 Higher 1826 .052 1842 .048 1820 to 1859 segment: Lower 1821> -.074 1839> -.063 1846< -.063 1834< -.037 1848> -.023 1830< -.023 Higher 1826 .059 1842 .053 ==================================================================================================================================== NB407B 1850 to 1900 51 years Series 44 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .538) is: Lower 1872> -.031 1851> -.025 1900> -.018 1886> -.017 1858> -.015 1898> -.015 Higher 1896 .032 1879 .028 ==================================================================================================================================== NBG112A 1700 to 1900 201 years Series 45 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1740 1779 2 .15 .03 -.01 -.17 -.32 -.30 -.24 -.23 -.15 .25 .32| .27 .38*-.06 .03 -.02 -.14 -.21 -.34 .07 .06 1760 1799 4 -.09 .13 .01 -.04 .00 -.29 -.03 -.07 -.06 .10 .21| .18 .04 -.02 .23*-.19 .00 -.30 -.15 .04 .08 1780 1819 10 -.04 -.05 -.23 .00 -.04 -.13 .06 -.03 .13 -.10 .13| .00 -.25 -.02 .23 -.12 .05 -.10 .02 -.07 .32* 1800 1839 -7 -.05 .04 -.03 .44*-.11 .08 -.21 .00 .03 -.19 .13| .08 -.25 -.31 .06 .07 -.10 -.13 .27 -.01 .17 1820 1859 -7 -.21 .00 .16 .50*-.16 .05 -.12 .11 -.15 -.29 .32| .18 -.27 -.12 .12 .02 -.09 -.11 .28 -.02 -.10 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .367) is: Lower 1788< -.022 1755> -.018 1884< -.017 1792> -.015 1820< -.013 1719> -.012 Higher 1881 .015 1765 .015 1740 to 1779 segment: Lower 1755> -.102 1777> -.036 1763< -.029 1753< -.026 1745< -.022 1748< -.014 Higher 1765 .079 1744 .033

53

1760 to 1799 segment: Lower 1788< -.110 1792> -.064 1777> -.025 1794> -.019 1763< -.018 1785> -.016 Higher 1765 .080 1772 .028 1780 to 1819 segment: Lower 1788< -.092 1792> -.064 1804< -.048 1812> -.031 1793< -.020 1794> -.016 Higher 1784 .051 1799 .039 1800 to 1839 segment: Lower 1836> -.053 1804< -.045 1831< -.041 1833> -.036 1820< -.035 1812> -.032 Higher 1821 .047 1818 .035 1820 to 1859 segment: Lower 1836> -.072 1820< -.052 1833> -.047 1831< -.042 1856> -.026 1828< -.018 Higher 1855 .040 1846 .033 [D] 1 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1765 -1.871 13 1 ==================================================================================================================================== NBG112B 1700 to 1749 50 years Series 46 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .511) is: Lower 1704< -.042 1722< -.030 1736> -.025 1719> -.023 1711< -.016 1745< -.014 Higher 1733 .066 1705 .028 ====================================================================================================================================

54

PART 7: DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS: test 14:31 Thu 22 Dec 2005 Page 6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corr //-------- Unfiltered --------\\ //---- Filtered -----\\ No. No. No. with Mean Max Std Auto Mean Max Std Auto AR Seq Series Interval Years Segmt Flags Master msmt msmt dev corr sens value dev corr () --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- 1 MCRC16A 1830 1900 71 4 2 .423 .63 1.51 .220 .674 .207 2.63 .507 -.029 2 2 MCRC16B 1815 1900 86 5 0 .574 1.04 2.02 .301 .613 .176 2.67 .344 -.015 1 3 MCRC09A 1850 1900 51 3 3 .252 .71 1.32 .239 .552 .269 2.73 .592 -.051 1 4 MCRC09B 1850 1900 51 3 3 .216 .86 1.77 .370 .677 .237 2.90 .504 -.096 1 5 MCRC08A 1792 1900 109 6 0 .463 .75 1.39 .196 .359 .223 2.36 .377 -.016 1 6 MCRC08B 1788 1900 113 6 1 .491 .84 1.64 .296 .637 .219 2.58 .398 .038 1 7 MCRC12A 1794 1900 107 6 0 .437 .46 .95 .196 .684 .290 2.34 .292 -.008 1 8 MCRC07A 1811 1900 90 5 0 .417 .58 1.04 .189 .552 .243 2.74 .516 .010 1 9 MCRC07B 1830 1900 71 4 2 .290 .61 1.05 .174 .447 .233 2.65 .542 -.022 1 10 MCRC02B 1830 1900 71 4 0 .426 .81 1.66 .331 .712 .250 2.60 .548 -.008 1 11 MCRC02A 1815 1900 86 5 4 .354 .74 1.55 .241 .640 .215 2.82 .620 -.026 1 12 MCRC09C 1850 1900 51 3 1 .381 .67 1.22 .211 .542 .258 2.78 .713 -.075 1 13 MCRC09D 1850 1900 51 3 3 .212 .82 1.52 .333 .784 .208 2.83 .476 -.091 1 14 MCRC07C 1839 1900 62 4 2 .387 .72 1.21 .195 .399 .245 2.51 .444 -.041 2 15 MCRC07D 1839 1900 62 4 2 .386 .69 1.30 .246 .592 .287 2.52 .442 -.063 1 16 NB322A 1700 1859 160 7 3 .309 .85 1.86 .426 .646 .352 2.49 .453 -.027 1 17 NB322B 1700 1849 150 7 3 .356 .88 1.88 .369 .504 .343 2.58 .485 .038 1 18 NB234A 1814 1900 87 5 2 .426 1.46 5.13 1.162 .775 .349 2.76 .320 .225 1 19 NB234B 1815 1890 76 4 2 .381 1.74 6.23 1.324 .761 .331 2.55 .384 -.074 1 20 NB266B1 1700 1780 81 4 2 .406 .90 2.80 .420 .276 .380 2.99 .517 -.020 1 21 NB266A2 1700 1790 91 4 2 .407 .90 2.81 .444 .374 .361 2.90 .464 -.060 1 22 NB266B2 1700 1790 91 4 2 .443 .90 2.94 .467 .305 .424 2.98 .534 -.032 1 23 NB288A 1700 1731 32 1 1 .184 .20 .38 .077 .385 .397 2.60 .522 .047 1 24 NB334A 1798 1900 103 6 3 .436 1.52 3.39 .624 .665 .244 2.72 .510 -.052 1 25 NB334B 1798 1900 103 6 3 .447 1.52 3.22 .561 .691 .234 2.73 .443 -.008 1 26 NB347A 1830 1900 71 4 4 .309 1.71 4.28 .938 .437 .387 2.77 .431 .006 1 27 NB350A 1817 1900 84 5 0 .573 2.00 3.86 .630 .562 .210 2.58 .468 -.025 1 28 NB350B 1817 1900 84 5 0 .519 1.96 3.99 .701 .616 .228 2.62 .470 -.064 1 29 NB367A 1700 1811 112 5 0 .539 .66 1.49 .278 .413 .386 2.57 .523 -.098 1 30 NB367B 1700 1812 113 5 1 .478 .59 1.76 .275 .494 .363 2.70 .485 -.073 1 31 NB373A 1737 1900 164 9 3 .473 .86 3.51 .606 .701 .348 2.67 .414 .016 1 32 NB373B 1737 1900 164 9 3 .507 .86 3.94 .620 .674 .382 2.56 .389 -.012 1 33 NBB373A 1756 1900 145 8 0 .561 .75 1.94 .346 .611 .317 2.57 .415 -.031 2 34 NBB373B 1756 1900 145 8 0 .462 .86 2.13 .429 .645 .332 2.74 .415 .011 1 35 NBC373A 1755 1900 146 8 2 .513 .75 2.54 .486 .795 .307 2.48 .380 -.050 1 36 NB387A 1811 1900 90 5 0 .496 1.37 4.15 .669 .604 .300 3.08 .524 -.021 1 37 NB387B 1812 1900 89 5 0 .499 1.38 4.05 .663 .564 .327 2.87 .485 .034 1 38 NB389A 1812 1900 89 5 3 .456 1.70 4.12 .864 .842 .236 2.91 .525 -.027 1 39 NB389B 1812 1900 89 5 0 .607 1.73 4.03 .845 .824 .239 2.76 .514 -.015 1 40 NB395A 1800 1900 101 5 2 .400 1.03 3.16 .497 .646 .304 2.40 .311 -.080 2 41 NB406A 1850 1900 51 3 0 .507 1.32 2.38 .402 .511 .249 2.60 .561 -.033 1 42 NB406B 1850 1900 51 3 0 .409 1.23 2.19 .368 .375 .273 2.71 .522 .014 1 43 NB407A 1813 1900 88 5 2 .418 1.52 3.27 .682 .752 .262 2.49 .387 .057 1 44 NB407B 1850 1900 51 3 0 .538 1.88 3.75 .806 .755 .245 2.59 .514 .035 1 45 NBG112A 1700 1900 201 10 5 .367 .46 1.06 .204 .679 .318 2.65 .507 .010 1 46 NBG112B 1700 1749 50 2 0 .511 .59 1.00 .231 .716 .265 2.58 .535 -.022 1 --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- Total or mean: 4284 230 71 .438 .99 6.23 .463 .607 .297 3.08 .460 -.016

55

PART 8: ADJUSTMENTS FOR UNDATED SERIES: test 14:31 Thu 22 Dec 2005 Page 7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Time span 1700 1900 201 years, best matches for 40-year segments lagged 20 years Listed in order from highest correlation Counted Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Series Segment Add # 1 Add # 2 Add # 3 Add # 4 Add # 5 Add # 6 Add # 7 Add # 8 Add # 9 Add #10 Add #11 -------- --------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- ac1w006B 1749 1788 54 .45 0 .42 -32 .40 66 .38 10 .36 -29 .35 37 .34 30 .34 18 .32 -7 .30 29 .29 ac1w006B 1769 1808 -7 .44 87 .43 0 .43 86 .38 -49 .33 -27 .33 -29 .32 54 .32 20 .32 -20 .28 29 .28 ac1w006B 1789 1828 40 .49 -2 .46 10 .36 -44 .34 0 .33 70 .33 -27 .33 -38 .30 56 .29 -78 .29 -76 .29 ac1w006B 1802 1841 -64 .52 -44 .37 -24 .37 -93 .37 -78 .35 -51 .30 -38 .30 -17 .30 5 .30 -90 .29 32 .28 4 segments - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Number of segments Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av +0 3 .39 =================== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== Counted Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Series Segment Add # 1 Add # 2 Add # 3 Add # 4 Add # 5 Add # 6 Add # 7 Add # 8 Add # 9 Add #10 Add #11 -------- --------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- ac1n003A 1771 1810 -19 .48 85 .37 6 .32 20 .32 44 .31 29 .30 -31 .30 18 .28 0 .28 84 .25 -63 .25 ac1n003A 1791 1830 -2 .43 -31 .39 44 .38 10 .37 -19 .35 25 .35 -41 .31 -73 .29 -61 .28 18 .28 17 .28 ac1n003A 1803 1842 32 .46 -24 .41 -85 .34 -4 .34 -71 .33 44 .30 -34 .30 55 .26 -52 .26 -19 .25 -48 .25 3 segments - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Number of segments Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av -19 3 .36 +44 3 .33 =================== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== Counted Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Series Segment Add # 1 Add # 2 Add # 3 Add # 4 Add # 5 Add # 6 Add # 7 Add # 8 Add # 9 Add #10 Add #11 -------- --------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- ac1n003B 1783 1822 -24 .43 54 .41 -66 .37 13 .37 37 .35 25 .32 -7 .31 32 .31 -78 .28 -36 .28 -46 .28 ac1n003B 1801 1840 -46 .40 49 .40 -9 .38 -17 .37 25 .37 20 .36 -58 .34 -97 .34 32 .33 -4 .33 54 .32 =================== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== Counted Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Series Segment Add # 1 Add # 2 Add # 3 Add # 4 Add # 5 Add # 6 Add # 7 Add # 8 Add # 9 Add #10 Add #11 -------- --------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- ac1n006B 1794 1833 -7 .55 -64 .51 40 .42 -93 .40 -94 .40 22 .32 -27 .32 -56 .32 -44 .31 10 .29 49 .29 ac1n006B 1801 1840 Lag from prior segment 7 years; insufficient =================== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== Counted Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Series Segment Add # 1 Add # 2 Add # 3 Add # 4 Add # 5 Add # 6 Add # 7 Add # 8 Add # 9 Add #10 Add #11 -------- --------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- ac1n007B 1780 1819 -77 .40 -66 .39 0 .37 56 .37 71 .33 -36 .32 -11 .30 -47 .29 13 .28 -49 .28 -7 .28 ac1n007B 1800 1839 -93 .44 -17 .40 -56 .38 -36 .36 0 .33 -61 .32 10 .32 55 .31 22 .29 -7 .29 25 .26 ac1n007B 1802 1841 Lag from prior segment 2 years; insufficient =================== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== Counted Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Series Segment Add # 1 Add # 2 Add # 3 Add # 4 Add # 5 Add # 6 Add # 7 Add # 8 Add # 9 Add #10 Add #11 -------- --------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- ac1w007B 1780 1819 0 .44 -29 .40 49 .38 8 .34 1 .31 -61 .28 -77 .28 -19 .28 13 .27 -7 .27 -33 .27 ac1w007B 1800 1839 -61 .49 20 .48 8 .39 -41 .35 32 .35 -4 .34 -34 .33 47 .30 -46 .29 13 .28 35 .25 ac1w007B 1802 1841 Lag from prior segment 2 years; insufficient =================== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== Counted Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr

56

Series Segment Add # 1 Add # 2 Add # 3 Add # 4 Add # 5 Add # 6 Add # 7 Add # 8 Add # 9 Add #10 Add #11 -------- --------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- ac1w007A 1780 1819 -66 .44 80 .34 37 .34 20 .33 -24 .31 -11 .29 -49 .28 -29 .28 10 .27 52 .27 -68 .26 ac1w007A 1800 1839 -68 .46 35 .39 20 .37 -29 .33 32 .33 -24 .32 -67 .31 0 .27 -31 .27 -7 .26 -99 .25 ac1w007A 1802 1841 Lag from prior segment 2 years; insufficient =================== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== Counted Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Series Segment Add # 1 Add # 2 Add # 3 Add # 4 Add # 5 Add # 6 Add # 7 Add # 8 Add # 9 Add #10 Add #11 -------- --------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- ac2w007A 1754 1793 0 .50 19 .36 -7 .35 54 .35 29 .33 6 .32 95 .31 25 .28 -12 .28 37 .27 48 .26 ac2w007A 1774 1813 37 .46 0 .41 -49 .35 -29 .34 48 .33 56 .29 85 .28 29 .26 78 .25 -65 .23 55 .23 ac2w007A 1794 1833 22 .36 40 .33 -17 .31 37 .31 10 .29 -66 .28 20 .27 -93 .26 -41 .25 -80 .24 -2 .24 ac2w007A 1803 1842 Lag from prior segment 9 years; insufficient 3 segments - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Number of segments Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av +37 3 .35 =================== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== Counted Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Series Segment Add # 1 Add # 2 Add # 3 Add # 4 Add # 5 Add # 6 Add # 7 Add # 8 Add # 9 Add #10 Add #11 -------- --------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- ac2w007B 1768 1807 71 .49 78 .37 56 .36 0 .34 -47 .34 -29 .33 87 .31 -61 .29 36 .29 85 .28 63 .28 ac2w007B 1788 1827 54 .41 10 .37 -61 .36 56 .35 13 .35 -51 .33 55 .32 -24 .31 25 .28 -2 .28 -10 .26 ac2w007B 1803 1842 -24 .43 -14 .42 -51 .37 -61 .37 -9 .36 13 .32 55 .29 -95 .29 -90 .29 -63 .28 -53 .27 3 segments - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Number of segments Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av -61 3 .34 =================== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== Counted Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Series Segment Add # 1 Add # 2 Add # 3 Add # 4 Add # 5 Add # 6 Add # 7 Add # 8 Add # 9 Add #10 Add #11 -------- --------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- ac2w003A 1769 1808 0 .44 -7 .39 -66 .39 -49 .36 -63 .35 20 .33 -37 .31 -67 .29 -34 .29 13 .29 37 .28 ac2w003A 1789 1828 10 .50 -7 .47 -54 .35 40 .35 20 .35 -44 .31 -27 .31 13 .31 -66 .30 51 .30 -34 .29 ac2w003A 1802 1841 -44 .39 -7 .36 51 .35 -93 .34 -64 .34 -17 .34 -24 .30 22 .29 -34 .27 10 .27 20 .26 3 segments - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Number of segments Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av -34 3 .29 -7 3 .41 +20 3 .31 Chronological order Add No Add No Add No Add No Add No Add No Add No Add No Add No Add No Add No Add No Add No Add No -34 3 -7 3 +20 3 =================== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== Counted Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Series Segment Add # 1 Add # 2 Add # 3 Add # 4 Add # 5 Add # 6 Add # 7 Add # 8 Add # 9 Add #10 Add #11 -------- --------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- ac2e005C 1769 1808 44 .46 48 .42 0 .41 63 .39 71 .33 92 .33 6 .30 -55 .30 -7 .29 -59 .28 40 .26 ac2e005C 1789 1828 40 .51 10 .40 20 .38 -34 .37 70 .33 -17 .31 -15 .30 -76 .27 72 .26 -7 .25 -54 .25 ac2e005C 1802 1841 -34 .41 -61 .39 20 .38 -64 .38 -44 .38 32 .37 -15 .36 44 .33 -24 .30 -90 .29 -63 .29 =================== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== Counted Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Series Segment Add # 1 Add # 2 Add # 3 Add # 4 Add # 5 Add # 6 Add # 7 Add # 8 Add # 9 Add #10 Add #11 -------- --------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- AC2005a 1765 1804 44 .41 -29 .41 78 .40 8 .35 0 .34 63 .31 95 .31 92 .29 -59 .28 25 .28 -30 .28 AC2005a 1785 1824 10 .43 20 .35 -38 .34 13 .32 40 .31 76 .31 -19 .25 -39 .24 -29 .23 44 .23 -11 .23 AC2005a 1802 1841 8 .39 -19 .37 -7 .37 -38 .34 53 .32 -31 .30 40 .29 -95 .29 -73 .28 -26 .28 -93 .27

57

=================== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== Counted Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Series Segment Add # 1 Add # 2 Add # 3 Add # 4 Add # 5 Add # 6 Add # 7 Add # 8 Add # 9 Add #10 Add #11 -------- --------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- ac2w008A 1764 1803 78 .43 0 .41 -29 .38 -27 .36 -59 .32 -7 .29 27 .26 71 .25 20 .24 12 .23 85 .22 ac2w008A 1784 1823 20 .43 -29 .40 -66 .39 0 .37 56 .37 -27 .35 10 .30 73 .27 -39 .27 -10 .27 -77 .26 ac2w008A 1802 1841 -78 .47 -38 .38 -14 .36 51 .35 -4 .34 22 .32 -31 .32 -24 .28 -82 .26 -93 .26 -64 .25 =================== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== Counted Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Series Segment Add # 1 Add # 2 Add # 3 Add # 4 Add # 5 Add # 6 Add # 7 Add # 8 Add # 9 Add #10 Add #11 -------- --------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- acmE007B 1770 1809 0 .61 37 .38 44 .35 48 .34 59 .33 -29 .32 63 .29 84 .29 78 .27 -55 .24 -23 .24 acmE007B 1790 1829 -17 .41 61 .38 -29 .32 -5 .31 -7 .29 -23 .26 -66 .25 0 .25 -61 .25 53 .24 -68 .22 acmE007B 1802 1841 49 .48 -97 .34 -17 .30 -95 .28 -65 .26 -23 .25 19 .25 8 .25 -96 .24 -5 .24 -54 .23 3 segments - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Number of segments Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av -23 3 .25 =================== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== Counted Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Series Segment Add # 1 Add # 2 Add # 3 Add # 4 Add # 5 Add # 6 Add # 7 Add # 8 Add # 9 Add #10 Add #11 -------- --------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- ac2e006a 1765 1804 0 .43 -29 .41 27 .36 20 .35 -59 .34 -27 .34 78 .33 12 .30 80 .30 56 .30 67 .27 ac2e006a 1785 1824 20 .52 -66 .51 -29 .36 -27 .32 -4 .26 52 .24 63 .24 -43 .23 56 .22 40 .22 32 .21 ac2e006a 1802 1841 -54 .37 -15 .32 49 .29 -51 .28 -66 .26 -93 .26 -71 .25 53 .24 -34 .23 -52 .23 -80 .22 =================== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== Counted Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Series Segment Add # 1 Add # 2 Add # 3 Add # 4 Add # 5 Add # 6 Add # 7 Add # 8 Add # 9 Add #10 Add #11 -------- --------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- ac2w008C 1760 1799 0 .54 -29 .41 -7 .38 49 .32 29 .31 27 .30 -59 .30 78 .29 59 .27 64 .26 66 .24 ac2w008C 1780 1819 0 .51 -29 .47 8 .38 78 .36 27 .33 44 .30 -77 .27 -49 .27 -19 .25 56 .25 -61 .24 ac2w008C 1800 1839 55 .42 -78 .40 -48 .38 -9 .36 11 .35 25 .35 8 .33 -75 .33 47 .31 -61 .31 -36 .30 ac2w008C 1801 1840 Lag from prior segment 1 years; insufficient =================== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== Counted Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Series Segment Add # 1 Add # 2 Add # 3 Add # 4 Add # 5 Add # 6 Add # 7 Add # 8 Add # 9 Add #10 Add #11 -------- --------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- ac2e008a 1779 1818 -29 .46 8 .44 -68 .39 78 .38 20 .35 76 .35 10 .33 -19 .32 0 .31 37 .31 -17 .31 ac2e008a 1799 1838 -68 .52 -29 .47 20 .40 35 .35 -96 .35 -7 .34 -10 .30 32 .29 8 .27 0 .26 -19 .26 ac2e008a 1801 1840 Lag from prior segment 2 years; insufficient =================== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== Counted Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Series Segment Add # 1 Add # 2 Add # 3 Add # 4 Add # 5 Add # 6 Add # 7 Add # 8 Add # 9 Add #10 Add #11 -------- --------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- ac2e004c 1771 1810 0 .50 -37 .45 -65 .38 86 .33 19 .32 -47 .30 70 .29 41 .29 -7 .28 10 .26 56 .24 ac2e004c 1791 1830 70 .57 53 .42 0 .36 -80 .36 -76 .34 30 .30 10 .30 22 .30 -38 .28 55 .25 46 .25 ac2e004c 1802 1841 30 .42 -93 .32 0 .31 -95 .31 -54 .29 53 .29 41 .29 -37 .27 -80 .26 -51 .26 -17 .24 3 segments - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Number of segments Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av +0 3 .39 =================== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== Counted Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Series Segment Add # 1 Add # 2 Add # 3 Add # 4 Add # 5 Add # 6 Add # 7 Add # 8 Add # 9 Add #10 Add #11 -------- --------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- ac1e008c 1772 1811 37 .45 -49 .41 0 .41 44 .40 -7 .37 56 .35 29 .33 -27 .32 27 .29 10 .26 8 .26

58

ac1e008c 1792 1831 22 .39 10 .37 -7 .33 -27 .32 -66 .32 56 .31 0 .30 -2 .29 40 .28 27 .28 44 .27 ac1e008c 1803 1842 -61 .43 -36 .40 -56 .31 -12 .31 -9 .30 -2 .29 -73 .27 -80 .27 23 .27 52 .26 -19 .24 =================== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== Counted Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Series Segment Add # 1 Add # 2 Add # 3 Add # 4 Add # 5 Add # 6 Add # 7 Add # 8 Add # 9 Add #10 Add #11 -------- --------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- ac1n002c 1769 1808 0 .46 -65 .35 48 .34 84 .30 71 .30 -51 .30 26 .28 -21 .28 -37 .27 44 .26 27 .25 ac1n002c 1789 1828 -76 .57 56 .40 -77 .40 26 .38 44 .36 -34 .35 70 .33 -60 .32 -37 .32 71 .30 -9 .29 ac1n002c 1803 1842 -61 .39 -38 .39 -60 .38 3 .37 -24 .33 44 .33 20 .31 -9 .30 23 .28 -34 .28 0 .28 3 segments - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Number of segments Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av +44 3 .32 =================== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== Counted Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Series Segment Add # 1 Add # 2 Add # 3 Add # 4 Add # 5 Add # 6 Add # 7 Add # 8 Add # 9 Add #10 Add #11 -------- --------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- ac2s003c 1777 1816 37 .41 0 .39 55 .38 10 .36 -19 .35 20 .35 -66 .35 67 .33 -29 .32 -11 .30 52 .29 ac2s003c 1797 1836 0 .45 20 .45 -66 .42 35 .38 8 .37 -19 .34 -29 .31 23 .28 37 .28 -4 .28 -78 .26 ac2s003c 1802 1841 Lag from prior segment 5 years; insufficient =================== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== Counted Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Series Segment Add # 1 Add # 2 Add # 3 Add # 4 Add # 5 Add # 6 Add # 7 Add # 8 Add # 9 Add #10 Add #11 -------- --------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- ac1n005a 1774 1813 -49 .51 -29 .44 37 .44 13 .41 0 .37 20 .32 55 .30 25 .29 -66 .28 -7 .28 78 .28 ac1n005a 1794 1833 25 .51 20 .37 13 .36 65 .36 -10 .34 -29 .34 -2 .33 49 .32 37 .31 -66 .30 55 .29 ac1n005a 1801 1840 Lag from prior segment 7 years; insufficient =================== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== Counted Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Series Segment Add # 1 Add # 2 Add # 3 Add # 4 Add # 5 Add # 6 Add # 7 Add # 8 Add # 9 Add #10 Add #11 -------- --------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- ac2e006b 1779 1818 0 .47 -66 .47 20 .39 13 .34 56 .33 80 .31 37 .29 -77 .27 71 .27 48 .25 64 .24 ac2e006b 1799 1838 55 .45 -93 .44 -61 .43 -27 .36 -91 .35 0 .31 -24 .30 22 .29 -14 .29 -54 .28 13 .28 ac2e006b 1803 1842 Lag from prior segment 4 years; insufficient =================== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== Counted Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Series Segment Add # 1 Add # 2 Add # 3 Add # 4 Add # 5 Add # 6 Add # 7 Add # 8 Add # 9 Add #10 Add #11 -------- --------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- ac2s006a 1774 1813 0 .59 -37 .47 -19 .40 -66 .38 59 .36 10 .36 37 .33 -39 .33 77 .31 47 .28 20 .25 ac2s006a 1794 1833 3 .47 30 .39 -24 .35 10 .34 0 .34 46 .33 -49 .29 15 .27 -83 .26 62 .24 -27 .24 ac2s006a 1803 1842 Lag from prior segment 9 years; insufficient =================== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== Counted Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Series Segment Add # 1 Add # 2 Add # 3 Add # 4 Add # 5 Add # 6 Add # 7 Add # 8 Add # 9 Add #10 Add #11 -------- --------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- ac1e008b 1772 1811 -49 .44 0 .42 37 .41 29 .35 8 .35 44 .35 -66 .34 56 .32 -65 .32 -19 .29 -12 .28 ac1e008b 1792 1831 0 .45 8 .42 10 .41 -2 .40 -66 .37 -27 .36 -78 .36 44 .33 40 .30 -49 .29 56 .28 ac1e008b 1802 1841 -61 .57 -78 .46 -12 .46 23 .36 0 .33 -49 .33 44 .31 -39 .31 22 .27 -81 .23 55 .23 3 segments - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Number of segments Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av -49 3 .35 +0 3 .40 +44 3 .33 Chronological order Add No Add No Add No Add No Add No Add No Add No Add No Add No Add No Add No Add No Add No Add No -49 3 +0 3 +44 3 =================== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ========

59

Counted Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Series Segment Add # 1 Add # 2 Add # 3 Add # 4 Add # 5 Add # 6 Add # 7 Add # 8 Add # 9 Add #10 Add #11 -------- --------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- ac2e007a 1780 1819 -19 .45 0 .41 37 .40 48 .40 -44 .39 78 .38 -7 .34 63 .33 10 .31 -58 .31 80 .30 ac2e007a 1800 1839 -9 .44 3 .38 -95 .38 -78 .35 -7 .34 -17 .34 51 .33 -58 .32 -56 .32 -36 .32 -46 .30 ac2e007a 1802 1841 Lag from prior segment 2 years; insufficient =================== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== Counted Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Series Segment Add # 1 Add # 2 Add # 3 Add # 4 Add # 5 Add # 6 Add # 7 Add # 8 Add # 9 Add #10 Add #11 -------- --------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- ac2e007c 1774 1813 -29 .50 -49 .38 37 .37 78 .37 80 .36 0 .32 -7 .31 32 .29 20 .28 71 .28 13 .27 ac2e007c 1794 1833 -9 .51 -29 .45 49 .42 -7 .40 20 .38 8 .34 -34 .34 -17 .33 -36 .33 13 .31 -27 .30 ac2e007c 1802 1841 Lag from prior segment 8 years; insufficient =================== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== Counted Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Series Segment Add # 1 Add # 2 Add # 3 Add # 4 Add # 5 Add # 6 Add # 7 Add # 8 Add # 9 Add #10 Add #11 -------- --------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- ac2s002b 1761 1800 -12 .46 37 .39 -49 .34 7 .32 85 .32 -44 .30 -32 .29 59 .29 71 .28 54 .27 25 .26 ac2s002b 1781 1820 -77 .47 -49 .37 37 .35 55 .33 71 .32 -76 .30 -10 .30 -12 .29 27 .29 -23 .28 -35 .27 ac2s002b 1801 1840 -90 .47 55 .35 -74 .35 -51 .31 -35 .31 -93 .30 -5 .27 42 .27 25 .26 -65 .25 -52 .25 =================== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== Counted Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Series Segment Add # 1 Add # 2 Add # 3 Add # 4 Add # 5 Add # 6 Add # 7 Add # 8 Add # 9 Add #10 Add #11 -------- --------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- ac2s004b 1764 1803 95 .52 48 .46 78 .41 66 .40 -38 .39 -12 .36 -51 .30 63 .30 -55 .30 -21 .25 0 .24 ac2s004b 1784 1823 8 .37 68 .29 27 .29 -38 .28 -39 .28 12 .27 -29 .26 -11 .25 -12 .25 54 .25 75 .25 ac2s004b 1802 1841 -54 .32 51 .30 -74 .30 52 .28 -27 .27 30 .25 10 .24 12 .24 0 .24 -65 .23 -7 .22 =================== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== Counted Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Series Segment Add # 1 Add # 2 Add # 3 Add # 4 Add # 5 Add # 6 Add # 7 Add # 8 Add # 9 Add #10 Add #11 -------- --------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- acmw007a 1775 1814 -22 .50 0 .45 -29 .45 -61 .41 27 .41 15 .39 42 .38 85 .36 56 .35 8 .34 74 .33 acmw007a 1795 1834 27 .43 -34 .43 -66 .37 -41 .37 20 .35 42 .35 25 .34 -29 .33 -76 .31 8 .31 49 .29 acmw007a 1802 1841 Lag from prior segment 7 years; insufficient =================== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== Counted Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Series Segment Add # 1 Add # 2 Add # 3 Add # 4 Add # 5 Add # 6 Add # 7 Add # 8 Add # 9 Add #10 Add #11 -------- --------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- ac2w007c 1756 1795 19 .41 0 .35 29 .31 -7 .30 96 .29 13 .27 95 .26 -37 .26 18 .24 25 .24 -51 .24 ac2w007c 1776 1815 -29 .46 0 .45 37 .39 78 .37 -10 .35 56 .32 10 .30 48 .29 -47 .26 -49 .26 -66 .24 ac2w007c 1796 1835 10 .38 -61 .37 0 .35 22 .32 46 .31 -17 .30 13 .29 55 .26 53 .26 -48 .25 -34 .25 ac2w007c 1803 1842 Lag from prior segment 7 years; insufficient 3 segments - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Number of segments Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av +0 3 .38 =================== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== Counted Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Series Segment Add # 1 Add # 2 Add # 3 Add # 4 Add # 5 Add # 6 Add # 7 Add # 8 Add # 9 Add #10 Add #11 -------- --------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- ac1n007a 1771 1810 0 .58 71 .40 -7 .39 -49 .37 37 .37 29 .36 -37 .34 78 .33 48 .30 56 .30 -65 .28 ac1n007a 1791 1830 0 .44 -17 .41 40 .40 22 .37 70 .36 -36 .36 -37 .35 10 .34 -56 .32 -7 .32 -27 .31 ac1n007a 1802 1841 0 .44 -37 .37 -93 .37 -78 .36 -61 .33 -38 .32 -36 .32 40 .30 -74 .30 -7 .29 -77 .28 3 segments - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Number of segments Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av

60

-37 3 .35 -7 3 .33 +0 3 .49 Chronological order Add No Add No Add No Add No Add No Add No Add No Add No Add No Add No Add No Add No Add No Add No -37 3 -7 3 +0 3 =================== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== Counted Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Series Segment Add # 1 Add # 2 Add # 3 Add # 4 Add # 5 Add # 6 Add # 7 Add # 8 Add # 9 Add #10 Add #11 -------- --------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- ac2s002a 1766 1805 84 .42 85 .40 -12 .40 37 .39 71 .35 25 .35 59 .33 0 .32 -49 .30 54 .28 -61 .27 ac2s002a 1786 1825 56 .50 3 .42 -22 .36 -61 .35 -4 .34 20 .34 -41 .34 -76 .33 27 .33 -73 .31 -24 .30 ac2s002a 1799 1838 -90 .51 -51 .47 3 .45 -78 .34 10 .33 56 .33 -76 .32 27 .31 54 .30 42 .30 -94 .30 =================== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== Counted Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Series Segment Add # 1 Add # 2 Add # 3 Add # 4 Add # 5 Add # 6 Add # 7 Add # 8 Add # 9 Add #10 Add #11 -------- --------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- ac2e004b 1774 1813 0 .49 -29 .46 10 .39 -39 .38 -65 .36 -19 .35 37 .33 -66 .32 -49 .32 -68 .30 -10 .30 ac2e004b 1794 1833 -93 .45 53 .39 -68 .36 -26 .36 -65 .33 -53 .33 -29 .31 10 .30 -14 .29 -63 .28 0 .26 ac2e004b 1803 1842 Lag from prior segment 9 years; insufficient =================== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== Counted Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Series Segment Add # 1 Add # 2 Add # 3 Add # 4 Add # 5 Add # 6 Add # 7 Add # 8 Add # 9 Add #10 Add #11 -------- --------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- ac1e006c 1770 1809 0 .56 37 .34 -49 .31 48 .31 84 .31 71 .29 -29 .28 20 .28 -7 .27 -47 .27 56 .26 ac1e006c 1790 1829 20 .48 40 .42 -61 .41 0 .36 13 .34 -27 .31 55 .30 56 .26 25 .26 -14 .24 -78 .23 ac1e006c 1802 1841 -61 .47 20 .44 -90 .30 -93 .30 -78 .29 25 .27 -24 .25 53 .25 0 .24 -95 .24 -53 .23 3 segments - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Number of segments Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av +0 3 .39 +20 3 .40 =================== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== Counted Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Series Segment Add # 1 Add # 2 Add # 3 Add # 4 Add # 5 Add # 6 Add # 7 Add # 8 Add # 9 Add #10 Add #11 -------- --------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- ac2e004a 1769 1808 -65 .48 0 .44 -63 .32 -7 .32 -37 .31 49 .29 41 .29 83 .28 88 .26 -49 .25 85 .24 ac2e004a 1789 1828 -26 .43 70 .40 -65 .38 -63 .34 -14 .30 -46 .28 -77 .28 -48 .28 40 .28 -80 .27 38 .26 ac2e004a 1802 1841 -78 .36 -48 .31 -41 .30 -34 .29 -4 .27 -61 .27 -65 .27 -17 .26 8 .26 0 .25 -64 .25 3 segments - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Number of segments Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av -65 3 .38 =================== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== Counted Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Series Segment Add # 1 Add # 2 Add # 3 Add # 4 Add # 5 Add # 6 Add # 7 Add # 8 Add # 9 Add #10 Add #11 -------- --------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- ac1w008b 1775 1814 0 .58 -19 .36 48 .34 10 .34 37 .31 -44 .30 29 .26 59 .26 27 .25 78 .24 -38 .24 ac1w008b 1795 1834 -39 .38 10 .38 -78 .37 -38 .37 -94 .34 -7 .33 22 .32 -34 .31 3 .31 -77 .30 40 .30 ac1w008b 1801 1840 Lag from prior segment 6 years; insufficient =================== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== Counted Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Series Segment Add # 1 Add # 2 Add # 3 Add # 4 Add # 5 Add # 6 Add # 7 Add # 8 Add # 9 Add #10 Add #11 -------- --------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- ac2w008d 1770 1809 0 .55 -7 .36 66 .36 -29 .36 78 .35 -66 .34 20 .34 44 .34 56 .29 71 .28 49 .27 ac2w008d 1790 1829 10 .44 -54 .40 0 .40 -14 .39 -27 .33 -61 .33 13 .32 -29 .32 -34 .30 -51 .30 -66 .28 ac2w008d 1801 1840 42 .41 -93 .40 -51 .38 0 .37 -61 .33 55 .31 -54 .30 -24 .28 -78 .28 -76 .26 10 .26 3 segments - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Number of segments

61

Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av Add No R_av +0 3 .44 =================== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== Counted Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Series Segment Add # 1 Add # 2 Add # 3 Add # 4 Add # 5 Add # 6 Add # 7 Add # 8 Add # 9 Add #10 Add #11 -------- --------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- ac1w008c 1779 1818 0 .55 -77 .39 56 .36 48 .35 -49 .34 10 .33 27 .32 37 .31 71 .30 -66 .29 44 .27 ac1w008c 1799 1838 -7 .51 -36 .46 20 .44 -78 .38 -73 .36 -64 .34 0 .29 -34 .27 -94 .27 -17 .27 13 .27 ac1w008c 1802 1841 Lag from prior segment 3 years; insufficient =================== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== 39 undated series - = [ COFECHA TEST COF ] = -

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