Demography &

Pupil Forecasting

Sarah Bedford, Nicola Gowers, Anna Jones,

Lawrence Morris, Alan Fitz

19th March 2015

Who are we?Hopefully, most of you know…

• The County Council’s central research & information section.

• We provide a wide variety of information on the people and economy of Cambridgeshire in order to help plan services for the county.

• Our work is divided up into a number of specific research areas including:

– Informing policy and service development

• Population and demographic areas

• School pupil forecasting

• Economic and labour market analysis

• Crime & community safety research

• Housing research

• Health data

• Deprivation research

• Census and Quality of Life information

– Consultations & surveys

– Data dissemination

LARF (Local Area Research Fortnight)

• Mon 16th: Who we are, Cambridgeshire Insight and Open Data

• Thurs 19th: Demography and Pupil Forecasting

• Mon 23th: Economy and Housing

• Thurs 26th: Consultations, Customer Insight, and Community Safety

• 16-27 March Lunchtime drop-ins, Room 015

The next 30 mins…

• Overview of pupil forecasting

• Overview of demography

– Population forecasts

• Over 65s

– Migration

• Our Data

– Visualisation

– Reports

• Questions

Pupil Forecasting

• What we do….

– Forecasts: school, catchment, district

– New communities forecasts

– School Census analysis

• Why we do it…

– School place planning

– To inform budgets

Pupil Forecasting

Demography

• What we do….

– Population estimates and forecasts

– Dwelling stock estimates and forecasts

– Migration

– Population characteristics

• Why we do it…

– Business planning, provision of services

A few facts….

1. Was primary school intake in Cambridgeshire in January 2014 higher or lower than in 2013?

2. Was the number of 11 to 15 year olds in Cambridgeshire secondary schools in Jan 2014 higher or lower than in 2009/10?

3. The % increase in total primary rolls over the next five years in Cambridge City is forecast to be higher or lower than the county average?

4. The number of Cambridgeshire secondary pupils attending maintained schools in Norfolk is higher or lower than the number going to Lincolnshire?

5. According to our 2013 population estimates, is the population of South Cambridgeshire higher or lower than the population of Huntingdonshire?

HIGHER

HIGHER

LOWER

LOWER

LOWER

A few facts….

6. According to our 2013 population estimates, was the growth of the county last year (2012-13) higher or lower than 1%?

7. According to the 2011 Census, was the proportion of people who stated they are Christian higher or lower than 50% for Cambridge City?

8. According to the 2011 Census, was the % of Cambridgeshire residents who stated they had ‘very good’ or ‘good’ health higher or lower than that of the East of England?

9. According to our most recent forecasts, is the population of the county due to be higher or lower than 800,000 in 2036?

10. According to the 2011 Census, was international migration into Cambridge City higher or lower than into Fenland?

HIGHER

HIGHER

LOWER

HIGHER

HIGHER

Population Forecasts

Over 65s

100,000

110,000

120,000

130,000

140,000

150,000

160,000

170,000

180,000

190,000

200,000

2011 2013 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

Ove

r 6

5s

Po

pu

lati

on

Number of Over 65s

Number of Over 65s

Forecast Age Structure

6%11%

66%

17%

0-4 years old 5-14 years old15-64 years old Over 65 years old

2013

Total Population: 635,100

5%11%

59%

25%

2036

Total Population: 800,900

Migration (2011 Census)

• Migrants=citizens who lived at a different address one year before census day.

• Migrants made up 13.4% of the resident population of Cambridgeshire. 23.5% of resident population of Cambridge City were migrants.

• Net figure for migration within UK (internal migration) = -6 people

• Understanding the type of migration– Highest in the 1-15 age group

– Fenland with oldest structure of migration

• Migration with surrounding counties & London

Key

Cambridgeshire

London

Key

NINo registrations for Cambridgeshire by world area by financial years 2004-2013

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

No

. of

NIN

o r

egi

stra

tio

ns

Financial year

Eastern Europe Asia Western Europe Africa Americas Oceania

How to access our data…

How to access our data…

Other Visualisations

Reports

• Population and dwelling stock estimates

• Population and dwelling stock forecasts

• Annual LA Pupil Projections

• Independent Schools Survey

• Migrant workers

• Census

– Older people

– Children and young people *Coming soon*

– Migration *Coming soon*

@CambsInsight

pinterest.com/cambsinsight

Cambridgeshire Insight

Come visit us! Shire Hall – Room 015

W: www.cambridgeshireinsight.org.uk

T: 01223 715300

E: research.performance@cambridgeshire.gov.uk

Next week in the council chamber….

Mon 23th: Economy and Housing

Thurs 26th: Consultations, Customer Insight, and Community Safety