Demographics

Demographics – Lesson Goals

1. Understand concepts relating to demography

2. Understand population trends in Canada and around the world

3. Global Village – Understand how globalization affects and is affected by trends relating to demographics.

Studying Population

• Population Geography– The study of SPATIAL variations in the distribution,

composition, migration, and growth of populations over time.

• Demography– The study of human population dynamics. It looks at

how populations change over time due to births, deaths, migration and ageing.

• Demographics– A term for population characteristics. Demographics

include birth rate, death rate, immigration, age, income, sex, education, occupation, religion, nationality, …

Studying Population

Population change over time will inevitably affect….

• Political Systems

• Economics

• Social Structures

• Environments

Studying Population

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Source: United Nations Populations Division, World Population Prospects, The 2004 Revision, medium variant.

Developing countries

Billions

Developed countries

Studying Population

• Factors that may lead to population increase include:

– Food

– Health

– Economic Growth

– Migration

Studying Population

• Growth Rate– the number of persons added to (or subtracted

from) a population due to:

1)natural increase (births – deaths) and 2)net migration (immigration – emigration).

Studying Population

• Factors that contribute to the decline in death rate include:

–Better Nutrition–Better Access to Medical Care– Improved Sanitation–Better Immunization

Studying Population

• Unfortunately Effects of Population Increase Can Lead to:

– Increased poverty

–Resource depletion

–Medicine shortages

–Urban sprawl

Studying Population

• A specific pattern of population growth has occurred in many developed nations during the past 60 years.

1945 1965 1985 2005 2025

Birt

hs Baby Boom

Generation X

Baby Echo

Generation Y

Studying Population

• Factors that may lead to population decline

– Heavy Emigration

– Disease

– Famine

– War

– Sub-replacement Fertility

• a fertility rate that is not high enough to replace an area’s population.

• Sub-replacement fertility rate is 2.1 children per woman or lower.

Studying Population

• Population Decline in the past

– The Black Death (The Bubonic Plague)

– Other Old World Diseases (Smallpox, Measles)

– Potato Famine

• Population Decline today

– Sub-replacement Fertility Levels

– Migration

• Why low sub-replacement fertility rate?

– Urbanization (people moving to cities have smaller families compared to those whose lives are based on agriculture in rural areas)

– Contraception

– Government Policies (i.e. China)

• Exception: United States where natural increase rates have remained stable…

• And within the US, incredible regional variations

Studying Population

Studying Population

60-81 50-59 40-49 30-39 20-29

• Comparison of rates of pregnancy per 1000 females aged 15–19 years in Canada, England and Wales, and the United States

• Country 1994 2002

Canada 49.2 33.9

England & Wales 58.7 60.3

United States 106.1 76.4

2.03

1.9

1.77

1.74

1.73

1.72

1.49

1.3

1.3

1.28

1.26

1.19

United States

France

Australia

Sweden

Netherlands

United Kingdom

Canada

Spain

Germany

J apan

I taly

South Korea

Average Number of Children per Woman

Source: PRB, 2005 World Population Data Sheet.

Studying Population

Studying Population

• Effects of Population Decline:

– Deflation in the economy

– Rise in the standard of living

– Population aging

– Less impact on the environment

– Political power? Could go either way!

300 200 100 00 100 200 300

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80+

Females

Source: United Nations Populations Division, World Population Prospects, The 2004 Revision.

Age

Males

Millions

In the developed countries, there are fewer and fewer young people and more and more elderly.

Studying Population

300 200 100 00 100 200 300

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

90+

Source: United Nations Populations Division, World Population Prospects, The 2004 Revision.

Females

Age

Males

Millions

The young population of the developing countries translates to great growth potential.

Studying Population

Europe is the only world region projected to decline in population by 2050.

728

1,941

668

778

457

549

326

885

3,8755,385Asia

Africa

Europe

LatinAmerica/Caribbean

North America

2050

2005

Millions

Studying Population

Population Pyramids

• A population pyramid is two back-to-back bar graphs, one showing the number of males and one showing the number of females in a particular population in five-year age groups (also called cohorts).

• A great deal of information about the population broken down by age and sex can be read from a population pyramid, influencing decision making of present and future needs for the population:– Birth rate trends– Death rate trends– Number of economic dependents (<15, >65)

• DEPENDENCY LOAD–The Dependency Load, or “dependents”

are the percentage of the population who rely on the working population to support them and their education, health care, social, etc. needs. Thus, they are the non-working population of people less than 15 years and greater than 65 years.

(>15 and <65)

Population Pyramids

• Three basic shapes of population pyramids.

Population Pyramids – CAN 1961

Depression

Baby Boom

Aging Population

Population Pyramids – CAN 2006

Population Pyramids – US 1990

Population Pyramids – US 2000

Population Pyramids – US 2025

Population Pyramids – US 2050

Population Pyramids – US 2100

Global Village

• If the world were a village of 1000 people, it would include:– 584 Asians– 124 Africans– 95 Eastern and Western Europeans– 84 Latin Americans– 55 former Soviets – 52 North Americans– 6 Australians and New Zealanders

Global Village

• The people of the village would speak:– 165 Mandarin– 86 English– 83 Hindu/Urdu– 64 Spanish– 58 Russian– 37 Arabic– and the remaining villagers would speak a variety

of 200 other languages

Global Village

• The religion practiced by the villagers would be:– 329 Christians (among them 187 Catholics, 84

Protestants, and 31 Orthodox)– 178 Muslims– 167 "Non religious"– 60 Buddhists– 45 Atheists– 32 Hindus– 3 Jews– and 86 of other religions

Global Village

• Financially speaking in this 1000 person community– 200 people receive 75 percent of the income– Another 200 receive only 2 percent of the income.– Only 70 people of the 1000 own an automobile

(although some of the 70 own more than one car).– About one-third have access to clean, safe drinking

water.

Global Village

• Looking at the social structure of the village, there are:– 5 soldiers– 7 teachers– 1 doctor– 3 refugees driven from home by war or drought– and half of the adults are illiterate

Global Village

• The village has a total yearly budget, public and private, of over $3 million - $3,000 per person if it is distributed evenly.

• Of the total $3 000 000:– $181,000 goes to weapons and warfare– $159,000 to education– $132,000 to health care

Global Village

• Nuclear Power in the Village:– The village has buried beneath it enough explosive

power in nuclear weapons to blow itself to smithereens many times over. These weapons are under the control of just 100 of the people.

– The other 900 are watching them with deep anxiety, wondering whether they can learn to get along together; and if they do, whether they might set off the weapons anyway through inattention or technical bungling; and if they ever decide to dismantle the weapons, where in the world village will they dispose of the radioactive materials of which the weapons are made?