Demographic Update - Fulshear, Texas Dev/Demographic Reports... · Demographic Characteristics 4...
Transcript of Demographic Update - Fulshear, Texas Dev/Demographic Reports... · Demographic Characteristics 4...
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City of FulshearDemographic Update
Summer 2017
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Numeric Change in Student Enrollment
Fall 2015 to Fall 2016
PEIMS enrollment
Population and Survey Analysts2Summer 2017 City of Fulshear Demographic Update
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Population and Survey Analysts
Percent Change in Student Enrollment
Fall 2015 to Fall 2016
PEIMS enrollment
3Summer 2017 City of Fulshear Demographic Update
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Demographic Characteristics
Population and Survey Analysts4
35.2Median AgeHouston Metro 34.1
58.7%
Bachelor’s Degree or Higher
Houston Metro30.60%
Median Household Income
$175,990Houston Metro $61,465
27.2%
PopulationAges 5–17
Houston Metro 20%
37.4Mean Travel Time to Work Houston Metro30.2 minutes
City of Fulshear
Summer 2017 City of Fulshear Demographic Update
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Monthly Employment ChangeHouston Metro, Seasonally Adjusted
Population and Survey Analysts5
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JOBS
MONTH
Employment Change
Source: Texas Workforce Commission
Summer 2017 City of Fulshear Demographic Update
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Housing Growth
Population and Survey Analysts6Summer 2017 City of Fulshear Demographic Update
Through 2021
Tamarron = 1,411 housing occupancies projected
Jordan Ranch = 910 Cross Creek = 993 310 (31%) of which will be age-restricted
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Housing Growth
Population and Survey Analysts7Summer 2017 City of Fulshear Demographic Update
Post-2021 through 2026
Tamarron and Jordan Ranch continue to dominate the market with 1,417 and 1,450 additional SF units, respectively.
Highland Management dev. ramps up Harrison Tracts along Westpark Tollway LID 21 is in the planning stage
4,626 acres known as Foster Farms ~3,150 developable acres exists behind future levee
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Most Active Residential DevelopmentsJune 2017 – Oct. 2026
Population and Survey Analysts8Summer 2017 City of Fulshear Demographic Update
SINGLEFAMILY
MULTI-FAMILY
Five Largest Single-Family Developments 2016-2021 2021-2026 2016-2026Tamarron 1,411 1,417 2,828 Jordan Ranch 910 1,450 2,360 Cross Creek Ranch 993 1,012 2,005 Foster Farms 120 1,310 1,430 Harrison Interests Tract 100 960 1,060 Total Projected New Single-Family Occupancies
6,531 12,352 18,883
Five Largest Multi-Family Developments 2016-2021 2021-2026 2016-2026Cross Creek Ranch (PU H19/H20) 250 450 700Jordan Ranch MF 60 400 460Park Lane Fulshear (Cross Creek) 380 0 380Fulshear Lakes 75 300 375Potential MF in PU B03 25 300 325Total Projected New Multi-Family Occupancies
940 1,625 2,565
Sheet1
Five Largest Single-Family Developments2016-20212021-20262016-2026
Tamarron1,4111,4172,828
Jordan Ranch9101,4502,360
Cross Creek Ranch9931,0122,005
Foster Farms1201,3101,430
Harrison Interests Tract1009601,060
Total Projected New Single-Family Occupancies6,53112,35218,883
Sheet1
Five Largest Multi-Family Developments2016-20212021-20262016-2026
Cross Creek Ranch (PU H19/H20)250450700
Jordan Ranch MF60400460
Park Lane Fulshear (Cross Creek)3800380
Fulshear Lakes75300375
Potential MF in PU B0325300325
Total Projected New Multi-Family Occupancies9401,6252,565
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Projected New Housing Occupancies June 2017 – Oct. 2026
Population and Survey Analysts9
Jan 2017-Oct 2017 703 0 0 33 736Oct 2017-Oct 2018 968 140 0 71 1,179Oct 2018-Oct 2019 1,289 260 50 98 1,697Oct 2019-Oct 2020 1,476 280 80 110 1,946Oct 2020-Oct 2021 1,678 260 125 105 2,168Oct 2021-Oct 2022 1,990 225 150 115 2,480Oct 2022-Oct 2023 2,206 250 175 111 2,742Oct 2023-Oct 2024 2,401 400 170 93 3,064Oct 2024-Oct 2025 2,653 375 205 77 3,310Oct 2025-Oct 2026 2,678 375 215 28 3,296
Jan 2017-Oct 2021 6,114 940 255 417 7,726Oct 2021-Oct 2026 11,928 1,625 915 424 14,892Jan 2017-Oct 2026 18,042 2,565 1,170 841 22,618
Grand TotalSingle Family Multi-Family Mixed Use /
CondoAge-Restricted
Summer 2017 City of Fulshear Demographic Update
Sheet1
Single FamilyMulti-Family Mixed Use / CondoAge-RestrictedManufactured HousingGrand Total
Jan 2017-Oct 201770300330736
Oct 2017-Oct 201896814007101,179
Oct 2018-Oct 20191,289260509801,697
Oct 2019-Oct 20201,4762808011001,946
Oct 2020-Oct 20211,67826012510502,168
Oct 2021-Oct 20221,99022515011502,480
Oct 2022-Oct 20232,20625017511102,742
Oct 2023-Oct 20242,4014001709303,064
Oct 2024-Oct 20252,6533752057703,310
Oct 2025-Oct 20262,6783752152803,296
Jan 2017-Oct 20216,11494025541707,726
Oct 2021-Oct 202611,9281,625915424014,892
Jan 2017-Oct 202618,0422,5651,170841022,618
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Population and Survey Analysts10
ProjectedNew HousingOccupancies
Jan. 2017–Oct. 2018
Summer 2017 City of Fulshear Demographic Update
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Population and Survey Analysts11
ProjectedNew HousingOccupancies
Jan. 2017–Oct. 2021
Summer 2017 City of Fulshear Demographic Update
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Population and Survey Analysts12
ProjectedNew HousingOccupancies
Oct. 2021–Oct. 2026
Summer 2017 City of Fulshear Demographic Update
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Population and Survey Analysts13
Estimated Household
Size
2016
Summer 2017 City of Fulshear Demographic Update
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Typical Household Size
Population and Survey Analysts14
Housing Type Typical Household Size
Multi-Family, majority 1-bedroom
1.55–1.85
Multi-Family, majority 2+ bedroom
1.85–2.25
Single-Family, Family Oriented
3.15–3.30 initially; 3.30–3.50 at peak
Single-Family, Age-Restricted 55+
1.65–1.80
Single-Family, Acreage/Rural Estate
2.65–2.85
Summer 2017 City of Fulshear Demographic Update
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Housing TypeTypical Household Size
Multi-Family, majority 1-bedroom1.55–1.85
Multi-Family, majority 2+ bedroom1.85–2.25
Single-Family, Family Oriented3.15–3.30 initially; 3.30–3.50 at peak
Single-Family, Age-Restricted 55+1.65–1.80
Single-Family, Acreage/Rural Estate2.65–2.85
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Students per Occupied Homeby School District
Population and Survey Analysts15Summer 2017 City of Fulshear Demographic Update
Katy ISD = 0.72 overall
Cinco Ranch/Cross Creek = 0.90 to 1.40
Lamar CISD = 0.58 overall
Cross Creek = 0.10 to 0.25 Tamarron /Fulbrook on F.C.= 0.4 to 0.55 Lakes of Bella Terra = 0.3 to 0.55
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Recent Flood Events
Population and Survey Analysts16Summer 2017 City of Fulshear Demographic Update
Brazos River Levee jitters—Foster Farms, etc.
Barker Reservoir – south of Katy Frwy. Future buyouts in KISD/SBISD/HISD possible;
these could have a domino effect, increasing housing demand in Fulshear 4,600 flooded SF & MF units east of dam 7,500 affected SF homes west of dam
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2011 2016 2021 2026
Three Scenarios of GrowthPo
pula
tion
of C
ity &
ETJ
79,873
95,848
55,911
Population and Survey Analysts17
20,795
Summer 2017 City of Fulshear Demographic Update
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2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025Low
Population 23,138 26,312 30,210 34,313 37,837 41,538 44,651 47,540 52,310
% Growth 0.11 0.14 0.15 0.14 0.10 0.10 0.07 0.06 0.10
Growth 2,343 3,174 3,898 4,103 3,524 3,701 3,113 2,889 4,770Moderate
Population 23,254 26,849 31,634 36,896 42,513 48,868 55,814 63,386 71,658
% Growth 0.12 0.15 0.18 0.17 0.15 0.15 0.14 0.14 0.13
Growth 2,459 3,595 4,785 5,262 5,617 6,355 6,946 7,572 8,272High
Population 23,370 27,252 32,583 38,741 45,489 54,243 63,070 72,894 85,273
% Growth 0.12 0.17 0.20 0.19 0.17 0.19 0.16 0.16 0.17
Growth 2,575 3,882 5,331 6,158 6,748 8,754 8,827 9,824 12,379
Three Scenarios of Growth
Population and Survey Analysts18Summer 2017 City of Fulshear Demographic Update
Sheet1
2017201820192020202120222023202420252026
Low
Population2079523,13826,31230,21034,31337,83741,53844,65147,54052,31055,911
% Growth0.110.140.150.140.100.100.070.060.102.74
Growth2,3433,1743,8984,1033,5243,7013,1132,8894,770214
Moderate
Population2079523,25426,84931,63436,89642,51348,86855,81463,38671,65879,873
% Growth0.120.150.180.170.150.150.140.140.134.43
Growth2,4593,5954,7855,2625,6176,3556,9467,5728,272392
High
Population2079523,37027,25232,58338,74145,48954,24363,07072,89485,27395,848
% Growth0.120.170.200.190.170.190.160.160.176.22
Growth2,5753,8825,3316,1586,7488,7548,8279,82412,379611
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Population Projections by Community
Population and Survey Analysts19Summer 2017 City of Fulshear Demographic Update
Community 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Cross Creek Ranch 8,002 9,473 11,388 13,208 14,651 15,936 16,822 17,536 18,256 18,881
Downtown Area (A03, B02) 305 305 318 354 457 596 789 1,053 1,434 1,866
Fulbrook on Fulshear Creek 765 965 1,193 1,417 1,653 1,904 2,170 2,437 2,673 2,840
Fulshear Run 39 104 264 421 587 671 742 764 801 805
Churchill Farms 1,782 1,800 1,818 1,836 1,854 1,873 1,892 1,911 1,930 1,949
Firethorne 8,699 9,162 9,642 10,070 10,432 10,632 10,783 10,932 11,089 11,254
Foster Farms 0 0 16 142 380 892 1,618 2,471 3,483 4,620
Fulbrook 686 708 730 751 777 803 829 860 890 920
Fulshear Farms 0 0 84 262 625 1,199 1,935 2,874 3,923 4,989
Fulshear Lakes 0 104 311 629 1,058 1,593 2,156 2,824 3,519 4,208
Harrison Interests Tract 0 0 0 90 381 833 1,522 2,336 3,339 4,349
Jordan Ranch 240 699 1,372 2,127 2,933 3,834 4,794 5,895 6,994 8,093
Tamarron 1,914 2,706 3,708 4,793 5,887 7,120 8,466 9,774 11,000 12,051
CITY LIMITS
ETJ
Sheet1
Community2017201820192020202120222023202420252026
CITY LIMITSCross Creek Ranch8,0029,47311,38813,20814,65115,93616,82217,53618,25618,881
Downtown Area (A03, B02)3053053183544575967891,0531,4341,866
Fulbrook on Fulshear Creek7659651,1931,4171,6531,9042,1702,4372,6732,840
Fulshear Run39104264421587671742764801805
ETJChurchill Farms1,7821,8001,8181,8361,8541,8731,8921,9111,9301,949
Firethorne8,6999,1629,64210,07010,43210,63210,78310,93211,08911,254
Foster Farms00161423808921,6182,4713,4834,620
Fulbrook686708730751777803829860890920
Fulshear Farms00842626251,1991,9352,8743,9234,989
Fulshear Lakes01043116291,0581,5932,1562,8243,5194,208
Harrison Interests Tract000903818331,5222,3363,3394,349
Jordan Ranch2406991,3722,1272,9333,8344,7945,8956,9948,093
Tamarron1,9142,7063,7084,7935,8877,1208,4669,77411,00012,051
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Projected Population by Jurisdiction
Population and Survey Analysts20Summer 2017 City of Fulshear Demographic Update
Area Oct. 2016 Oct. 2018 Oct. 2020 Oct. 2022 Oct. 2024 Oct. 2026
City 8,521 11,174 15,758 19,526 22,325 25,060
ETJ 12,274 15,675 21,138 29,342 41,061 54,813
City + ETJ 20,795 26,849 36,896 48,868 63,386 79,873
Outside ETJ 819 897 1,323 2,441 4,136 6,060
SINGLE MEMBER DISTRICTS
District 1 1,628 2,794 5,228 7,835 10,411 12,963
District 2 2,095 2,321 2,958 3,458 3,490 3,518
District 3 1,641 2,751 4,140 4,686 4,757 4,789
District 4 1,633 1,693 1,756 1,822 1,890 1,960
District 5 1,524 1,615 1,676 1,725 1,777 1,830
Sheet1
AreaPop 2010LCISD Fall CorrectionHousing Count 2016Column1Oct. 2016Household Size 2016 (wrong)Established Neighborhood Growth 17-21Established Neighborhood Growth 22-26Oct. 2017Oct. 2018Oct. 2019Oct. 2020Oct. 2021Oct. 2022Oct. 2023Oct. 2024Oct. 2025Oct. 2026
City2,9298,5219,43811,17413,49815,75817,72919,52620,99822,32523,76625,060
ETJ4,11812,27413,81615,67518,13621,13824,78429,34234,81641,06147,89254,813
City + ETJ20,79523,25426,84931,63436,89642,51348,86855,81463,38671,65879,873
Outside ETJ3788198468971,0581,3231,7682,4413,2124,1365,0896,060
SINGLE MEMBER DISTRICTS
District 11,62816.690.0050.0102,0832,7943,9295,2286,5367,8359,14810,41111,76812,963
District 22,09512.480.0200.0352,2122,3212,6112,9583,2593,4583,4863,4903,5013,518
District 31,64113.550.0250.0351,9172,7513,5804,1404,4454,6864,7574,7574,7704,789
District 41,6339.870.0550.0551,6631,6931,7241,7561,7891,8221,8561,8901,9241,960
District 51,5249.920.0500.0501,5631,6151,6541,6761,7001,7251,7511,7771,8031,830
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Population and Survey Analysts21
EstimatedPopulation by Planning
UnitOct. 2016
Summer 2017 City of Fulshear Demographic Update
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Population and Survey Analysts22
ProjectedPopulation by Planning
UnitOct. 2021
Summer 2017 City of Fulshear Demographic Update
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Population and Survey Analysts23
ProjectedPopulation by Single Member
District
Oct. 2020
Summer 2017 City of Fulshear Demographic Update
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City of FulshearDemographic Update
Summer 2017
City of FulshearNumeric Change in Student Enrollment��Fall 2015 to �Fall 2016Percent Change in Student Enrollment��Fall 2015 to �Fall 2016Demographic CharacteristicsSlide Number 5Housing GrowthHousing GrowthMost Active Residential Developments�June 2017 – Oct. 2026Projected New Housing Occupancies �June 2017 – Oct. 2026Projected�New Housing�OccupanciesProjected�New Housing�OccupanciesProjected�New Housing�OccupanciesEstimated Household SizeTypical Household SizeStudents per Occupied Home� by School DistrictRecent Flood EventsThree Scenarios of GrowthThree Scenarios of GrowthPopulation Projections by CommunityProjected Population by JurisdictionEstimated�Population by Planning UnitProjected�Population by Planning UnitProjected�Population by Single Member DistrictCity of Fulshear