Demographic Impacts on Minnesota’s Work Force:

the future in 15 minutes or less

Kyle UphoffRegional Analysis & Outreach Manager

Job Openings have Collapsed as Unemployment has Increased

Q2, 20

01

Q4 ,20

01

Q2, 20

02

Q4, 20

02

Q2, 20

03

Q4, 20

03

Q2, 20

04

Q4, 20

04

Q2, 20

05

Q4, 20

05

Q2, 20

06

Q4, 20

06

Q2, 20

07

Q4, 20

07

Q2, 20

08

Q4, 20

08

Q2, 20

09

Q4, 20

090

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

Job Vacancies Unemployment Rate

Job

Vaca

ncie

s

Unem

ploy

men

t Rat

e

The recent recession will restructure an already shifting economic structure: Industries losing jobs in MN since March 2007

• Total Employment: -140,000 in 2 years• Construction: -28,600 (-37,000 in 3 years)• Manufacturing: -42,500 (-53,300 in 3 years)• Wholesale: -6,500• Retail: -19,000• Transportation: -10,000• Information: -3,700• Professional & Technical Services: -20,600• Employment Services: -9,000• Leisure & Hospitality: -12,800

A few Industries are still adding jobs but there are no safe bets anymore

• Healthcare: +8,200• Social Assistance: +5,100• Insurance: +1,200• Utilities: +700• Education: +3,600• Food Manufacturing: +1,000• Wholesale Nondurable goods: +1,200• Government: +200

Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit

Analysis and Evaluation Office

A full labor market recovery is years away…assuming we are in recovery now

2,600

2,650

2,700

2,750

2,800

2008 2009 2010 2011

Empl

oym

ent i

n Th

ousa

nds

Actual Projected

~140,000 Jobs Lost ~90,000 Jobs

Late 2012

Calculated based on Global Insight Inc US forecast,

The Post-Recessionary Landscape

• Lower labor force mobility• Postponed retirements• Less consumption- “the new frugality”• Increasing skills requirements• Continued shift to services• Government Policy risk and opportunity• Globalization risk and opportunity

The Shift to Services: Employment Change since 1991 MN Manufacturing vs. Healthcare

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009-100,000

-50,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

Healthcare Manufacturing

Education Requirements are Increasing

Twin Cities data presented.Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

30%

39% 40%42%

51%48%

55%

45%

57%

42%

35%

28%

21% 19% 20%

23%24%

20%

Post-Secondary EducationNo Experience Needed

% o

f Tw

in C

ities

Job

Vac

anci

es

Education will be even more important in the future

• 65% of new job growth will require education beyond high school.

• Education beyond high school will be required for 17 out of the 20 fastest growing occupations.

• Good communication skills, customer service and computer knowledge will be required for future jobs.

Minnesota is projected to add 270,000 jobs between 2006 and 2016

ManufacturingUtilities

Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & HuntingMining

Retail TradeInformation

Transportation and WarehousingWholesale Trade

ConstructionReal Estate and Rental and LeasingArts, Entertainment, and Recreation

Other Services, Ex. Public AdminManagement of Companies and Enterprises

Finance and InsuranceAccommodation and Food ServicesAdministrative and Waste Services

Educational ServicesProfessional and Technical Services

Health Care and Social Assistance

-25,000 -15,000 -5,000 5,000 15,000 25,000 35,000 45,000 55,000

-12,899

-890

-673

-9

1,814

2,354

2,747

4,273

4,983

5,528

6,365

8,098

10,915

12,352

14,252

14,807

15,318

24,019

49,778

Number of New Jobs, 2006 to 2016Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development

Minnesota is projected to have over 600,000 replacement job openings by 2016

Farming, Fishing & ForestryLegal

Life, Physical & Social SciencesArt, Design & Entertainment

Architecture & EngineeringProtective Services

Installation, Maintenance & RepairCommunity & Social Services

Health Care SupportBuilding, Grounds Cleaning & Maintenance

Computer & Mathematical

ConstructionTransportation & Material Moving

ManagementEducation, Training & Library

ProductionBusiness & Financial

Personal Care and ServicesHealth Care Practitioners & Technical

Food Preparation & Serving RelatedSales & Related

Office & Administrative Support

0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000120,000140,000

New Jobs

Replacement Open-ings

Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development

Technology is the biggest unknown

Time

Employment

IT Services?

Green Tech?Nanotech?

Computer Mfg?

CommoditizationMaturation or“the Golden Age”

Correction

Expansion/Speculation?

Inception

Microchips?

CreativeFinancing?

Skill and knowledge areas for “in demand” jobs

Skills and knowledge areas projected to be most utilized by future occupations:

Reading comprehension Active listening Speaking Writing Active learning Critical thinking Customer service Mathematics Clerical Education/training

Working in an era of shortage Labor Availability- Twin Cities Region

1,300,000

1,400,000

1,500,000

1,600,000

1,700,000

1,800,000

1,900,000

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Avg. 2

009

Empl

oym

ent &

Lab

orfo

rce

Employment Workforce

Minnesota is Aging

When will they retire?

Will there be enough?

How productive canthey be?

An expanding economy will have to do with a slowing labor force

Labor shortages are already here in some places

Where will workers come from?

We need to fix racial disparities in educational attainment

The Aging of Society will Shift Spending Priorities

Some new entrants will be ready for the new labor market…some will not.

Where can I get this information?

• Kyle Uphoff (Manager): (651) 259-7185• Central/SW: Cameron Macht (320) 231-5174• Northeast: Drew Digby (218) 723-4774• Northwest: Nate Dorr (218) 333-8220• Metro: Rachel Vilsack (651) 642-0728• Southeast: Jennifer Ridgeway (507) 285-7327

www.positivelyminnesota.com