Demographic Dividend
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Demographic Dividend:
Education and Occupations
Laveesh BhandariAparna Panwar
Indicus Analytics
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Growing Population
• 2005 – 1,076 million• 2020 - 1,341 million• 2050 - 1,592 million
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Age distribution
0
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
140,000,000
'0-4 '10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80+
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Working Age Population
20-60 Total Population %
2005 539,935 1,076,934 50.14
2020 744,941 1,341,031 55.552050 872,337 1,592,703 54.77
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So what?
• Large Numbers in working age group
• Likely to remain till about 2050• Low but changing dependency
• But what about their educational backgrounds?
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Some things well known
• Between 40-50% of those enrolled drop out of school before completing upper primary
• Quality of schooling extremely poor• Most who are ‘literate’ can barely read
and write their own name
• What is likely to be the ‘quality of the dividend’?
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Educational Distribution (20-60 Age Group)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Illite
rate &
< P
rimary
Primary
Midd
le
Secon
dary
Highe
r Sec
onda
ry
Gradu
ate &
Abo
ve
2005 2020
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Would the dividend be realized?
• What will the hundreds of millions of poorly educated do?
• Not Agriculture given expected productivity improvements
• Not organized manufacturing• Not IT, not BPO, not R&D, not Financial
sector, not sales and marketing
• Are things really that bleak?
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Occupations and Growth2 Dig NOC Description Millions 6 yr. Growth
22 Working Proprietors, Wholesale & Retail Trade 2.6 155%41 Manufacturers, Agents' 1.2 71%95 Bricklayers & Other Construction Workers 9.9 54%24 Working Proprietors, Directors & Managers 4.5 44%08 Nursing & Other Medical & Health Technicians 1.0 42%50 Hotel & Restaurant Keepers 1.5 41%98 Transport Equipment Operators 8.6 40%26 Working Proprietors, Directors & Managers, Other Serv ices 1.5 38%52 Cooks, Waiters, Bartenders & Related Workers 1.8 33%94 Production & Related Workers, n.e.c. 2.5 31%55 Launderers, Dry-Cleaners & Pressers 2.2 30%85 Electrical Fitters & Related Electrical & Electronic Workers 2.7 25%54 Building Caretakers, Sweepers, Cleaners & Realted 1.9 24%84 Machinary Fitters, Assemblers & Instrument Makers 3.7 24%99 Labourers, n.e.c. 11.3 23%30 Clerical & Other Superv isors 1.9 23%
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What can we predict?
• High growth can create opportunities for all
• Better educational/skill attainment would open many more opportunities
• Numbers too large for the govt. to subsidize
• Yes there is a dividend coming• But it could have been much larger