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PREMIER MINISTRE

International Social Security AssociationWorld Social Security Forum

(Moscow, Tuesday 11 September 2007)

Demographic changes –

Impact on the world of work

Julien DamonHead of the Departement of Social AffairsAssociate Professor - Sciences-Po (Paris)

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SUMMARY A world with a population…

… still growing, notably in the less developped countries ;

… ageing everywhere, especially in the developped countries,;

… in the course of feminization and urbanization.

Consequently for the world of work :

… more employment injuries and occupational diseases to come ;

… financial and political trade-offs between social risks ;

… new types of global inequality.

Illustration : the Care Drain

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The world of work will be a world of Developing Countries

Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision.

World Population (in Billions): 1950-2050

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World Population Clock

Natural Increase per

World

More Developed Countries

Less Developed Countries

Year 80,794,218

1,234,907 79,559,311

Day 221,354 3,383 217,971

Minute 154 2 151

2005

Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2005 World Population Data Sheet.

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An ageing world

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The old Europe…

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… and the ageing old Europe

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Urban PopulationPercent

29

15 17

53

47

37 37

76

55

42

74

85

54

61

82

World Africa Asia Latin Americaand the

Caribbean

MoreDeveloped

Regions

1950 2000 2030

Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision (medium scenario), 2004.

Trends in Urbanization, by Region

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Urbanization : the 2007 tipping point

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More and more women in the labour force

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But still a very important glass ceiling…

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The global mamy boom

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9,5 9 8,8 8,7 8,3 7,8 6,9 6,9 6,7 6,2 6,2 6,3 6 5,8 5,6 5,4 5,4 5,4 5,3 5,2 5,2

16,2 16,3 16,8 17,5 18,1 18,317,2 18,2 19,1 20,1 20,5 20,7

22,824,8

26,628,4

29,931,1 31,6 32 32,3

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Population aged from 0 to 4 Population more than 60 years old

A consequence of ageing : which equipments and which benefits to favour ?

The case of France

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision, 2004.

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Association Between Fertility and Female Labor Force Participation

Worldwide, female labor force participation tends to be higher in countries with lower fertility rates

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Female Labor Force Participation Rate 2004

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005; International Labor Organization, Yearbook of Labor Statistics 2006.

Total Fertility Rate 2000-2004

Turkey

DjiboutiPhilippines

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Association Between Fertility and Female Labor Force Participation

But in the OECD countries fertility rates tend to be higher in countries with higher female labor force participation

Source: OECD

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Employment Injury and Occupational Diseases

2005 Global EstimatesILO World Day for - Safety and Health at Work 2007

About 2.2 million people die every year from occupationalaccidents and disease

• 270 million workers suffer non fatal injuries• 160 million workers suffer short

or long-term illnesses from work-related causes

Total cost = 4% of the world’s gross domestic product

Yet most accidents are preventable

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Employment Injury and Occupational Diseases in France

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The new repartition of diseases

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After the brain drain, the coming care drain

Labour force projection for developed countries with and without migrationProjected population aged 15-64 (medium variant)

600

700

800

900

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

(Millions)

With

migration

Without

migration

100

million

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And not to be forgotten…Population Living on Less Than US$2 per Day

2002Percent

50

78 75

41

23 20

World South Asia Sub-SaharanAfrica

East Asia and thePacific

Latin Americaand the

Caribbean

Middle Eastand North

Africa

Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators 2006.

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Thank you for your attention