Demographic Change and Progressive Political Strategy in Spain

8/7/2019 Demographic Change and Progressive Political Strategy in Spain

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Demographic Change and ProgressivPolitical Strategy in Spain

1

Ferran Martnez i Coma April 2011


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Te Demographic Change and Progressive Poliical Sraegy series o papers is a join projec organized

under he auspices o he Global Progress and Progressive Sudies programs and he Cener or American

Progress. Te research projec was launched ollowing he inaugural Global Progress conerence held in

Ocober 2009 in Madrid, Spain.

Te preparaory paper or ha conerence, Te European Paradox, sough o analyze why he orunes o

European progressive paries had declined ollowing he previous auumns sudden nancial collapse and

he global economic recession ha ensued. Te saring premise was ha progressives should, in principle,

have had wo srenghs going or hem:

Modernizing rends were shiing he demographic errain in heir poliical avor. Te inellecual and policy bankrupcy o conservaism, which had now proven isel devoid o creaive

ideas o how o shape he global economic sysem or he common good.

Despie hese laen advanages, we surmised ha progressives in Europe were sruggling or hree pri-

mary reasons. Firs, i was increasingly hard o diereniae hemselves rom conservaive opponens who

seemed o be wholehearedly adoping social democraic policies and language in response o he eco-

nomic crisis. Second, he nominally progressive majoriy wihin heir elecorae was being spli beween

compeing progressive movemens. Tird, heir radiional working-class base was increasingly being

seduced by a poliics o ideniy raher han economic argumens.

In response, we argued ha i progressives could dene heir long-erm economic agenda more clearly

and hus diereniae hemselves rom conservaivesas well as esablish broader and more inclusive

elecoral coaliions, and organize more eecively among heir core consiuencies o convey heir mes-

sage, hen hey should be able o resolve his paradox.

Te research papers in his series each evaluae hese demographic and ideological rends in greaer

naional deail and presen ideas or how progressives migh shape a more eecive poliical sraegy.

We are graeul o he Friedrich-Eber-Siung or heir suppor o his projec.

Mat Browne, John Halpin, and Ruy eixeira
http://www.boell.org/downloads/Browne_Halpin_Teixeira_EuropeanParadox.pdfhttp://www.boell.org/downloads/Browne_Halpin_Teixeira_EuropeanParadox.pdf


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1 Introduction and summary

2 Recent election results and current situation in the coun

6 Shifting coalitions

6 Immigration

10 Education

12 Social class

13 Age

17 Gender

18 Religion

19 Geography

21 The new progressive coalition

23 The new progressive vision

25 Conclusion

27 References

28 Endnotes

29 About the author

Contents


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1 Center or American Progress | Demographic Change and Progressive Political Strategy in Spain

Introduction and summary

Tis repor ocuses on he mos relevan rends in demographic change and heir

poenial impac on progressive poliical sraegy in Spain.

Te rs secion o he paper summarizes he las naional elecion resuls in he

counry and he exen o which hey represen a decline or advance in voer sup-

por or progressives relaive o he previous elecion. Tis secion also discusses

he poliical siuaion in he counry and is evoluion since he mos recen elec-

ion, including he eecs o he economic recession on progressive orces andprospecs or he nex elecion.

Te second secion deals wih he eec o demographic change on he sup-

por received by he Socialis Pary and by he res o he cener-le. Some key

variables such as immigraion, educaion, social class, age, gender, religion, and

geography are used o analyze he Spanish elecoraes evoluion since 1982.

Te hird secion analyzes he social coaliion supporing progressive policies in

Spain. And he las secion looks a he ype o sociey progressives seek o build

and he values ha underline his sociey and poenially connec wih voers.


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Recent election results and current

situation in the country

Te Socialis Pary, or PSOE, led by Jos Luis Rodrguez Zapaero, came o power

aer winning he 2004 elecion. Presiden Zapaeros rs erm in oce, which

lased rom 2004 o 2008, is dened by expansion o social righs; conroversies

regarding negoiaions wih he naionalis erroris group EA; aggressive oppo-

siion by he conservaive Popular Pary, or PP; and reorms o he dieren legal

saues in several regional governmens.

Te 10h general elecion since democraic elecions were resored in Spain in1977 was held on March 9, 2008. Te vicory, or he sixh ime, wen o he PSOE,

which obained 43.87 percen o he voe while he PP obained 39.94. Previous

elecion resuls are shown in able 1. 2

Table 1

Turnout and change in Spanish elections 19772008 (%)

Election

yearTurnout

Socialist

PartyConservative

Communist-

left coalition

Center

party OtherPSOE

increasePP increase

(PSOE) Party (AP/PP) (PCE/IU) (UCD/CDS)

1977 78.83 29.32 8.21 9.33 34.44 18.7 - -

1979 68.04 30.4 6.05 10.77 34.84 17.94 1.08 0.4

1982 79.97 48.11 26.36 4.02 6.77 14.74 17.71 -8.48

1986 70.49 44.06 25.97 4.63 9.22 16.12 -4.05 -0.39

1989 69.74 39.6 25.79 9.07 7.89 17.65 -4.46 -0.18

1993 76.44 38.78 34.76 9.55 1.76 15.15 -0.82 8.97

1996 77.38 37.63 38.79 10.54 13.04 -1.15 4.03

2000 68.71 34.16 44.55 5.45 - 15.84 -3.37 5.73

2004 75.66 42.59 37.71 4.96 - 14.74 8.33 -6.81

2008 73.85 43.87 39.94 3.77 - 12.417 1.28 2.23

Source: mir.es


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During he rs years o Presiden Zapaeros governmen, he Spanish economy

grew beween 3 percen and 4 percen per year. Bu by 2008 he rs sympoms o

he recession appeared, and he elecion was held in ha conex.

Te PSOE sraegy consised o obaining a high paricipaion raele-leaning

voers end o absain more han conservaive voersand deending he govern-mens achievemens. Te presiden won a high degree o social suppor and was

he key elemen o he campaign.

On he oher hand, he PP, led by Mariano Rajoy, ran a campaign bese by inernal

problems. PP based heir sraegy on demobilizaion o he poenial socialis

elecorae. Tey used some o he crucial issues on he poliical agenda such as he

erriorial debae, he ailed negoiaion wih he naionalis erroris group EA,

he deerioraion o he economic siuaion, and immigraion concerns.

An analysis o he Sociological Research Cener or CIS panel surveys shows haPSOE voers had he highes loyaly raehe proporion o hose who inend o

voe or a pary and do voe or ia 87 percen. Te PSOE was he mos atrac-

ive pary or hose who were mobilized during he campaign.

In shor, he PSOE won he 2008 elecion because: a) PSOE voers showed a higher

level o loyaly han PP voers; b) he PPS demobilizaion sraegy did no seem o

work and; c) PSOE was more successul in atracing voes rom ormer absainers.3

Bu wha has happened since he 2008 vicory? And how has he siuaion evolved?

Te PSOE governmen renewed heir simple majoriy in parliamen aer he

elecions o March 2008. Te worldwide economic recession hi Spain laer han

i did oher counries, so he PPs claims ha he economic recession was already a

realiy did no ge hrough o he majoriy o voers. Sill, he economic recession

evenually arrived, and i aeced Spain more deeply han many oher counries in

he Organisaion or Economic Cooperaion and Developmen.

Spaniards perceive he economy as he main problem in heir counry. According

o CIS surveys abou 70 percen o respondens say unemploymen is he coun-rys main issue. Te unemploymen rae is 20 percen o he working populaion,

which ranslaes ino 4.6 million unemployed. Tis siuaion is even more dra-

maic among hose age 25 and under, where unemploymen reaches a rae o 40

percen. Te lowes level o Spanish unemploymen was a 7.95 percen in 2007.

From ha momen on unemploymen rose quickly and reached very high levels.4


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Tis siuaion could aec he governmen, bu evidence does no conrm ha

when he economy is in poor shape he opposiion pary is avored. Oher ele-

mens may be imporan. Among hem we can poin o he ideology o he voers,

governmen and opposiion credibiliy, and perceived blame or he recession. An

example o his is he PSOE vicory in he 1993 elecions in a very poor economic

siuaion or John Majors reelecion in he Unied Kingdom in 1992.

Polls in Spain, however, are currenly showing a consisen decline in voing inen-

ion or he PSOE and an increase or he PP. Since he 1990s, le-leaning voers

end o absain more han conservaive-leaning voers. Te CIS polls o 2009 and

2010 conrm his rend. And in ac, mos PSOE voers are no urning o PP bu

o absenion. Boh leaders, Prime Miniser Rodrguez Zapaero and he head o

he opposiion conservaive pary Mariano Rajoy, perorm poorly in he polls,

obaining grades below 5 on a 0-o-10 scale.

Bu polls are only snapshos o a given momen, and since he elecions areexpeced o be held in 2012 some hings may change on he poliical scene. Firs

o all, he governmen made a subsanial change away rom a policy mainly based

on he expansion o social righs o one o ghing he recession. Tis policy

shi consised o wo main seps. Te rs one was a classic social democraic

approach, increasing social spending and proecing hose who were suering he

mos rom he recession. Te second, in May 2010, was a change in ha emphasis,

since hepublic deci and deb increased very quickly and inernaional markes

panicked. Many ciizens undersood he need or some o he measures, bu hese

were perceived as social cus. Te governmen response has been ha he counry

needs o ace he new siuaion in order o improve public accouns and modern-

ize and reorm he Spanish economy.

Secondly, boh he PPs atiude and behavior are widely criicized, even among

some o heir voers. Te PP suppored only one o he imporan iniiaives

promoed by he PSOE: he Caja de Ahorros (savings banks) reorm. In early

February 2011 he Spanish governmen signed a general agreemen on pensions

and oher imporan social reorms wih boh he unions and he main business

associaion o he counry. Bu he PPs posiion on ha is no clear. Te PP also

opposed criical economic measures he governmen ook in May 2010.

A he same ime, many voers, while agreeing wih PP, do no know wha he

conservaive pary s alernaive proposals are. Tis could be a weak sraegy since

he public could conclude ha he PPs measures are so unpopular ha hey preer

o hide hem.


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I is hereore quie possible he PSOE governmen will be re-eleced i govern-

men measures prove correc by he ime o he general elecion, he economic

siuaion improves, and he PP coninues is uncooperaive behavior.

In Spain, he ideological le-righ axis is dominan in naional poliics and he

PSOE is he mos imporan represenaive o he progressive specrum. Bu hePSOE is no alone in ha axis. Siuaed o is le is he communis-le coaliion,

or IU. IU was he hird-mos suppored parybu punished in is number o

represenaives in parliamen by he elecoral sysembeween he general elec-

ions o 1996 and 2008. Over ha ime period, his coaliion o le-wing paries

los almos wo voes ou o hree and 90 percen o is seas, rom 21 o 2 seas.

Tere are many reasons or he decline in IU voers since he 1990s. One o he

mos relevan is he eec o he elecoral ormula, which leads o a concenraion

o voes as well as o sraegic voing. Specically, in small disrics, he incenives

o voe or a hird pary such as IU are very low, and his is why many o heirvoers have moved o PSOE or absained.5 In he 2004-2008 period some o he

PSOEs growh came rom he IUs decline.

When we compare he 2004 elecion resuls wih hose o 2008 we see ha he

le-wing orces declined rom 51.8 percen o 49.9 percen o he voe. Te

le-wing bloc experienced a srong reconguraion ha beneed he PSOE, as

IU and oher small le-wing paries los an imporan number o heir voes.

Consequenly, hey los more represenaives and did no keep heir own group in

parliamen. Te pos-elecoral poll by CIS showed ha 20 percen o IU voers in

he 2004 elecions swiched o PSOE.

As a resul o all his, while in 2004 he PSOE atraced 82 percen o le-wing vo-

ers, in he 2008 elecion his gure reached 87 percen.6

Te concenraion o he voe in he wo main paries, PSOE and PP, has been

consan since he rs democraic elecions in 1977.7 Tis has increasingly polar-

ized he Spanish poliical pary sysem. As some analyss have poined ou, PSOE

and PP received 84 percen o all voes cas in 2008he highes level in he

counrys democraic hisoryand obained 92.3 percen o he seas.8

Previously,in 1989, PSOE and PP obained only 65.38 percen o he voes and 80.57 percen

o he seas. Biparisan voe concenraion was repeaed in many o he 17 regional

governmens given he naure o he elecoral ormula and how he regional polii-

cal compeiion is congured.


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Shifting coalitions

In he nex pages we presen he eec o demographic change on he PSOEs suppor.

Some key variables such as immigraion, educaion, social class, age, gender, religion,

and geography are used o analyze he evoluion o he Spanish elecorae since 1982.

Tis analysis will show how dieren demographic groups have voed and wheher such

paterns have changed. Tis will be done rom wo perspecives: paricipaion and voe

choice. Tis approach akes ino accoun dieren sudies published on he Spanish

elecorae rom 1982 unil 2000, which includes six elecions. For he oher wo elec-

ions, 2004 and 2008, hese analyses are combined wih he CIS pos-elecion surveys.

Firs, we deail changes in he las several decades ha are making he counry more

diverse. Tis is a key issue since many immigrans will become ciizens and have he

righ o voe.

Immigration

Spain has undergone a subsanial ransormaion in recen

decades. During he rs hal o he 20h cenury, many

Spaniards migraed abroadaer he Civil War o Lain

America, especially Mexico and Argenina, and during he

1960s mainly o oher European counries. Bu migraion

fowed in he opposie direcion oward Spain by he sec-

ond hal o he 1990s, as Figure 1 poins ou. Tis fow has

considerably increased since hen and overwhelmed he

eecs o emigraion rom Spain.

Spain has received more Lain American ciizens han anycounry in Europe in addiion o Norh Arican migrans.

Tis is a phenomenon largely atribuable o hisorical ies

and common language. (see ables 2 and 3)

Figure 1

Evolution of immigrant population in Sp

(1981-2010)

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

1981

1986

1991

1996

1998

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2


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Spains economic growh during he las years o he 1990s and almos all ohe las decade increased he incenives or immigraion. Spain experienced he

highes economic growh o he souhern European counries. As a resul, he

counry received more immigransand a a aser pacehan any oher coun-

ry in Europe.

We analyze below some o he challenges Spanish sociey aces regarding his issue

since immigraion is crucial boh or he progressive agenda and or governmen

in general. Legal immigrans should have he same righs and duies as naion-

als. Bu i is necessary o be cauious on how such an issue is porrayed or wo

reasons. Te rs one is he naives perspecive. Te second one comes rom he

eecs o immigrans becoming ull-righ ciizens.

How natives view immigration

Eurobaromeer 64.2 asked he ollowing quesion: W ha do you hink are he

wo mos imporan issues our counry is acing a he momen? Figure 2 shows

he relaionship beween he percenage o respondens answering immigraion

and he immigran porion o he populaion.

Table 2

Geographic origin of immigrants in Spain 2006

Ranking Origin Total % total immigrants

1 Latin America 1,500,785 36.21

2 Western Europe 872,694 21.06

3 Eastern Europe 735,506 17.75

4 North Africa 614,436 14.83

5 Sub-Saharan Africa 170,843 4.12

6 Asia 132,474 2.72

7 India area 69,006 1.46

8 North America 27,292 0.66

9 Middle East 18,094 0.44

10 Oceania 2,363 0.06

Source: INE.

Table 3

Country of origin of

immigrants in Spain 2

Ranking Countr y To

1 Morocco 767

2 Rumania 751

3 Ecuador 440

4 Colombia 287

5United

Kingdom222

6 China 151

7 Italy 150

8 Bulgaria 147

9 Portugal 126

10 Bolivia 117

11 Germany 109

12 Argentina 103

13Dominican

Republic87,

14 Poland 86,

Total 4,79

Source: Immigration Ofce, Labor and Imm

Department.


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Immigrants becoming full citizens

Legal immigrans will be able o voe in he local elecions o 2011 in Spain. I is

esimaed ha over 500,000 o hem will join he census. Te only oher hing

immigrans will have o achieve in order o become ull ciizens will be he righ o

voe in he naional and regional elecions, since he basis or access o he welaresae in Spain is universal, regardless o ciizenship saus.

I is only a mater o ime beore immigrans righ o voe in naional and regional

elecions becomes a naional debae. Some legal and pracical argumens are used

o jusiy ha immigrans shouldn voe in naional elecions. Bu many o hem

are based on moral grounds. Te decision on he voe is no cos reeserious

consequences are a sake.

Firs, rom an elecoral perspecive, he inclusion o immigrans may aec rep-

resenaion. A he local level, wihou considering he elecoral ormula or hedisribuion o seas, he addiion o a urher 20 percen o he elecorae may

no only decide who governs bu could also creae a new poliical pary wih real

governing chances, given he mulipary naure o local elecions. A he naional

level, he eecs could be even more complicaed.

Second, he areas wih more immigrans may be more concerned wih having

heir ineress represened han he ohers given ha immigrans are no disrib-

ued evenly across he counry. Tis has a very clear implicaion or public policy

since he incorporaion o immigrans ino he elecorae may il he poliical

balance in a ciy or region and consequenly infuence uure policies.

Tird, some specic issues relaed o immigrans may emerge in orce even hough

he poliical preerences o immigrans are considered o be heerogeneous(some

o hem may lean oward he le and ohers oward he righ).9 Te naive popula-

ion may receive some o hem wellhose pressing or longer business hours, or

examplewhile ohers may no be so well receivedhose opposed o opening

Mosques, or example.

Fourh, some immigran groups values may be very dieren rom he res o soci-ey. For insance, previous unpublished research by he ciy o Barcelona ound

ha Muslims are consisenly more conservaive in values and cusoms han any

oher immigran group.


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Fihand his is very much linked o earlier commensno all immigran

groups are perceived he same way. Some are more acceped while ohers

more rejeced. For insance, in a Sepember 2007 CIS survey, 36.7 percen o

hose surveyed sae ha some immigran groups breed misrus. Specically,

31.2 percen sae ha hey rus Lain Americans more han any oher group.

Conversely, 51.2 percen sae ha here are paricular immigran groups haare regarded as unrusworhy.

Education

Lieraure on poliical science and sociology poins ou he high correlaion

beween educaion and individuals social class. An indirec link has also been

observed beween educaion and social class or age.10 As a consequence, educaion

has no been as widely sudied as a direc voing acor as oher acors. Research

on values, such as ha by Ronald Inglehar, shows ha educaional levels indireclyaec ciizens: I plays a role in conguring heir subjecive orienaion.11

No linear relaionship exiss in Spain beween educaion and voer paricipaion.

In oher words, one canno arm ha beter-educaed individuals paricipae

more han hose who are uneducaed or are mid-level educaed. In ac, hose wih

a mid-level educaionsuch as high schoolabsain more han hose wih lower

levels. Tose a universiy level have no ollowed any consisen patern in any o

he democraic elecions. In sum, he hypohesis ha hose wih higher educa-

ional levels paricipae more is no conrmed in Spain.

Anoher quesion is wheher people voe dierenly according o heir educaional

level. Te conservaive PP obains higher levels o suppor among hose wih a

higher educaional level while he uneducaed voe less or hem. In clear con-

ras, PSOE wins more suppor among he less educaed and less suppor among

he mos educaed group. Tere are hus dierences a he exreme end o he

disribuion hough hese are relaively small groups. Tere is no very clear leaning

oward one o he main paries rom he group wih a mid-level educaion, which

is he mos imporan one in absolue numbers.

So while people do voe dierenly by educaion such dierences are dened

mosly by he exreme groups (he more and he less educaed).


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able 4 shows ha he PSOEs voer composiion by educaion evolved hrough

ime. Tiry-wo percen o he PSOEs voe came rom hose wihou sudies in

1982, while in 2008 suppor among ha group was 5.1 percen o he PSOE voe.

In he las 25 years he average educaional level in Spain has increased, and as a

consequence, he percenage o hose wih no sudies or primary sudies has

declined over ime.

able 5 shows he percenage o he voe ha he PSOE obained wihin each

educaion level. I shows ha he PSOE is consisenly less atracive o hose wih

a higher educaional level. Tiry-our percen o hose wih a universiy degree

oped or PSOE in he las wo elecions. Bu rom 1989 o 2000 no even 20

percen o hose wih a universiy degree voed PSOE.12

Table 4

Composition of PSOE vote by education, 19822008

No studies Primary Secondary University

1982 32 35.6 24.2 8.2

1986 36.1 37.2 20.7 6

1989 34.6 39.2 22.1 4

1993 19.4 32.7 42.2 5.7

1996 16.8 32.1 42.5 8.5

2000 13.7 47 26.2 13

2004 7.4 22.8 54.7 15.1

2008 5.1 25.5 53.1 16.3

Source: CIS.

Table 5

PSOE vote support

No studies Primary Secondary University

1982 38.5 39.8 43.3 30.7

1986 44.5 38.5 33.8 22.5

1989 40.6 31.9 27.1 12.6

1993 47.7 33.6 28.4 15.3

1996 45.1 29.8 24.9 17.7

2000 29.9 21 18.3 15.6

2004 41.1 36 38 34.1

2008 46.9 42.5 40.4 34.5

Source: CIS.


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Social class

Class is a classic dening variable or he social-democra movemen. I is a com-

plex variable ha radiionally includes educaion, wage, and ype o job.

Tere is a debae in he academic lieraure on wheher he social class divide sillprevails. Mark Franklin and his collaboraors oer a dealignmen evidence-based

hypohesis ha class is less imporan han i used o be. 13 Oher research, how-

ever, shows ha class remains a srong voe predicor.14 Te evidence is abundan

or Spain: Class does mater, bu is explanaory power has decreased wih ime.15

Regarding paricipaion, hose wih more resourcesin a higher-class posiion

do paricipae more han he res. Bu his is no a srong predicor. Moreover,

dieren social classes voe dierenly and here is an ideniable patern.

On he one hand, propery owners, he service economic secor, and whie-col-lar workers voe or he PP consisenly more oen han qualied and nonquali-

ed blue-collar workers. On he oher hand, qualied and nonqualied blue-collar

workers consisenly voe more oen or he PSOE. In ac, hese wo groups

accouned or a minimum o 40 percen o he PSOEs voe in he 1996 elecion

and as a voe share reached heir peak in 1989 wih 60 percen o he PSOEs voe,

as able 6 shows.

Table 6

PSOEs vote distribution by class (%)High class Intermediate Autonomous Qualified manual Non-qualified manual Agrarian

1982 5.2 26.2 5.6 33.4 15.4 14.2

1986 7.6 18.5 5.2 34.3 22.7 11.8

1989 9.1 15.3 4.8 38.2 22.6 10

1993 10.4 24.8 10.4 36.2 7.2 11

1996 12 24.9 8.9 34 5.8 14.3

2000 13.1 16.8 5.7 27.9 21.4 15.1

2004 16.6 21.7 7.5 23.4 19.4 11.4

2008 24.9 12.7 7 22.8 24 8.6

Source: CIS.


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able 7 also shows how dieren social classes voe or he PSOE. Te PSOE

is always more successul in geting he voes o he qualied and nonqualiedmanual workers while geting less suppor rom he high class, inermediae, or

auonomous workers.

Age

urnou and absenion vary wih age. Academic lieraure shows ha younger

as well as older people paricipae less han hose in he middle-age group. In ac,

paricipaion normally reaches is peak when voers are beween 55 and 64 and

decreases aerward.

Tis is a consan eaure o all elecions in Spain rom 1982 o 2008. Te young-

esdened as voers beween 18 and 34 years o ageabsain more han oher

ciizens. And inermediae age groups do paricipae more oen. Bu absenion

among 35- o 44-year-olds has ended o increase in recen elecions.

Senior ciizens used o paricipae less han he middle-aged since hey were no as

much involved in public lie and more concerned abou healh issues, or insance.

In he las elecions, however, hey voed a higher raes. Te imporance o hisgroup also will increase in he uure given he demographic change Spain will

experience in coming years.

Table 7

Distribution of class vote to the PSOE (%)

High class Intermediate Autonomous Qualified manual Non-qualified manual Agrarian

1982 27.5 37.1 23.7 49.5 44.6 34.2

1986 26.7 30.8 28 43.8 46.6 42.2

1989 21.7 22.9 21.4 39.4 38.1 42.5

1993 21.4 29.2 26.2 41.3 39.6 36.4

1996 20.1 25.5 23.1 34.8 37.1 34

2000 14.5 16.7 12.8 28.4 23.7 23.5

2004 31.9 36.5 35 43 41.8 37.8

2008 34.9 41.3 35.4 46 46.5 40

Source: CIS.


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In erms o voe orienaion, popular wisdom saes ha seniors are more conser-

vaive han younger cohors. I is no necessarily he case in Spain, however. Te

senior voe or PSOE in 1982 was underrepresened a only 11 percen, as can be

seen rom able 8. Bu once he PSOE gained power and implemened is policies

i sared o win more posiive evaluaions, and consequenly, voes rom seniors

and ewer rom he younges.

Tis rend was so acue ha some analyss poin ou ha he PSOE changed

rom being he pary o he young in 1982 o being he pary o he seniors in

1996, when hey ell rom power.16 Beween he 2004 and 2008 elecionswhile

he PSOE was in power againsenior represenaion in he PSOE voe was sill

around 20 percen, signicanly higher han in he 1980s.

Table 8

PSOEs vote distribution by age (%)

18-24 yrs 25-34 yrs 35-44 yrs 45-54 yrs 55-64 yrs +65 yrs

1982 20 22.7 19.3 15.5 11 11.5

1986 16.5 20.1 17.4 16.9 13.6 15.5

1989 13.4 19.5 18.4 19.6 11.8 17.2

1993 12.9 19.9 16.5 14 16.2 20.4

1996 12.2 17.7 18.2 14.3 14.9 22.7

2000 12 16.9 19.4 17 11.7 23

2004 14.2 20.8 19.3 15.8 10.8 19.2

2008 9.3 19.2 19.5 17.1 14.4 20.6

Source: CIS.

From anoher perspecive, (able 8), while in 2004, 35 percen o he PSOE voe

came rom he 18-34 age group i was 28 percen in 2008. Te PP held seady wih

his group during his ime period wih 24 percen and 28 percen o he parys

voe coming rom his group in 2004 and 2008, respecively. As is well-known,

younger voers played a crucial role in he 2004 elecion o Jos Luis Rodrguez-

Zapaero. Te PSOE received 40 percen o he 18- o 24-year-old voe in 2004.

(see able 9)


18/33


All he available projecions

indicae ha in Spain andin Europe he millennial

generaionhose born in

1978 or laerwill no gain

in imporance as hey have

in he Unied Saes because

Europes demographic

uure is dieren rom ha

o Norh America and he

res o he world. Europe is

he only region in he world

wih declining populaion, as

Figure 4 shows.

How does Spain ino his

conex? Te highes number

o people was in he 15- o

34-year-old group, roughly 13

million, and he number o

people above 65 was abou 8million in Spains populaion pyramid or 1995, disribued by age.

Table 9

Distribution of cohort vote to the PSOE in the elections (%)

18-24 yrs 25-34 yrs 35-44 yrs 45-54 yrs 55-64 yrs +65 yrs

1982 50.4 43.9 39.6 34.5 32.6 30.3

1986 16.5 20.1 17.4 16.9 13.6 15.5

1989 27.2 28.1 35.6 30.8 32.7 33.9

1993 25.9 31.2 31.3 29.5 33.7 39.2

1996 22 24.5 29.9 28.6 28.7 35.7

2000 12 16.9 19.4 17 11.7 23

2004 40.4 39.2 38.9 40.9 33.3 33.7

2008 38 38.1 40.1 43 44.6 40

Source: CIS.

Figure 4

Population of world regions in 2009 and projected to 2050

Source: Population Reerence Bureau, 2009 World Population Data Sh

Asia Africa Latin America/Caribbean

NorthAmerica

Europ

2009 2

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000


19/33


Figure 5 shows ha 15 years

laer he siuaion changed.

Te group rom 15 years ago

ha was beween 15 and 34

years old is now beween 30

and 49 years old and is helarges segmen o he popu-

laion wih around 13 million

people. Tose beween 15

and 34 represen abou 9 mil-

lion while hose above 65 are

above 8 million. Tose under

30 are no longer he domi-

nan segmen.

Projecions or 2020 showconinued change along hese

lines. Bu i esimaions are

accurae, he mos dramaic

change will occur in abou 40

years ime (see Figure 6). In

2050 he group ha oday is

beween 30 and 49 will be 70

and older, and will be he larg-

es age segmen. Seniors above

80 will be more han 4 million

and here will be 13 million

over 65. Te group beween

30 and 49 will be slighly more

han 8 million and he young-

es, rom 0 o 24, will be abou

6 million.

Tis rend will aec soci-

ey over he nex 40 years.Consequenly, progressives

need o change, adap o he

new age srucure, and oer

new policies and narraives.

Figure 5

Age and sex distribution for the year 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Internati

Male

Population (in millions)

2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0

80+

75-79

70-74

65-6960-64

55-59

50-54

45-49

40-44

35-39

30-34

25-29

20-24

15-19

10-14

5-9

0-4

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5

Figure 6

Predicted age and sex distribution for the year 2050

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Internati

Male

Population (in millions)

2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0

80+

75-79

70-74

65-69

60-64

55-59

50-54

45-49

40-44

35-39

30-34

25-29

20-24

15-19

10-14

5-9

0-4

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5


20/33


Tis rend holds rue or many oher European counries such as Ialy (where i

will be even more signican), France, he Unied Kingdom, Sweden, Germany,

and Poland. Accordingly, as repored by demographer David Miles,17 we should

expec ha:

By he middle o his cenury he raio o people o working age o hose oreiremen age will or several counries sand a only around one-hal he cur-

ren level in he absence o massive immigraion or caasrophic illnesses. Te

proporion o he populaion under 30 will see a sharp all.

Over he nex 50 years a consisen bu no seady rise in he relaive numbers o

over 65-year-olds is orecas.

Over he nex 10 years here will be a signican rise in he proporion o he

populaion in he second hal o heir working lives (age 45-65). Tese people

should do he mos saving, in heory. Such change could have a powerul impacon saving behavior in boh he public and privae secors. I is also likely o aec

labor supply, ax raes, and real wages.

In a nushell, seniors voe more han he youngand here will be more o

hem in he uure. I is clear ha progressives need o arge hem. Te quesion,

hough, is wheher senior voers hold consisen convicions ha can be argeed

eecively. More analysis is necessary on his paricular quesion.

Gender

Spanish women voe as much as men, as in almos all Wesern democracies.

Beween he rs elecions and 1989 paricipaion dierences declined, and dier-

ences are no signican since hen.

Spanish women were in he pas considered o be more conservaive han men

or wo inerrelaed reasons. Te rs was heir socio-occupaional role. Since

mos women were mainly dedicaed o aking care o heir amilies and he home

heir link wih poliics was weaker han mens. In oher words, poliics was mainlyconsidered a mans business. Te second is relaed o religion. Women were more

religiousor a leas were more requenly involved in he Caholic Church,

which is radiionally conservaive in Spain. When hey voed, hereore, hey

were more conservaive.


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Spanish sociey radically ransormed, however. And one o is social advances

in he las hree decades is he incorporaion o women ino he labor orcea

process no ye complee. Moreover, he church does no play as predominan a

role as i used o hough i sill mainains a privileged role, posiion, voice, and

power. Progressive governmens were no able o limi his role as much as hey

could and should.

As a resul o hese acors women do no voe as conservaively. In ac, only in

1982 did women voe proporionally less or he PSOE han men. Since hen

women proporionally voe PSOE more han men, hough only signicanly in

2008 (see ables 10 and 11). A curious aspec is ha while here is litle gender

dierence beween he PSOE and PP voe, he IU, or ormer Communis pary,

obains more suppor rom men han women.

One problem remains regarding gender. How is i possible ha progressives

hisorically called or equaliy bu did no gain sronger suppor rom womenvoers? In Spain, or insance, womens righs have improved dramaically, and

he PSOE mainly drove such changes. Bu ha didn ranslae ino a surge o

voes rom women.

Tere are wo possible explanaions or such a siuaion. Te rs is ha conserva-

ive paries were successul in deacivaing an issue ha could be very harmul

o hem. Te second is ha progressives weren able o exploi i as ully as hey

should. Tese possibiliies need urher sudy.

Religion

Religion is a classic variable ha almos all elecoral analyses in Europe ake ino

accoun. Te church and poliical conservaives in Spain are very closely linked.

Religious srie deeply divided Spanish sociey in he years beore he Civil War.

Te church sided wih he insurgens when he war began, and when Francisco

Franco won he insiuional Caholic Church srongly collaboraed wih his dic-

aorship. Te church was no a uniary acor, however, and some Caholic secorswere ani-Franco.

Table 10

PSOEs vote distributio

by gender (%)

Men Wo

1982 54.8 4

1986 48.4 5

1989 45.9 5

1993 47.3 5

1996 48

2000 45.9 5

2004 47.8 5

2008 46.4 5

Source: CIS.

Table 11

Distribution of gendevote to the PSOE (%)

Men Wo

1982 43.3 3

1986 38.3 3

1989 30 3

1993 31.1 3

1996 27.9 2

2000 19.4 2

2004 37.2 3

2008 38.4

Source: CIS.


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A gradual secularizaion o sociey began in he 1970s, as in oher European

counries. Bu he secularizaion became more pronounced a he ouse o he

democraic period. Tis process wen hand in hand wih a sharper separaion

beween church and sae.

Caholics in Spain voe more oen, paricularly compared o aheiss and nonbe-lievers. Tey are he mos imporan par o he elecorae. I is also he case ha

Caholics who assiduously atend religious services and are involved in socializa-

ion and relaionship neworks voe more han oher Caholics. Moreover, hey

voe more conservaively: Among acknowledged Caholics, hose who atend

religious ceremonies are more likely o voe or he conservaive PP. Seveny-ve

percen o Spaniards oday are Caholics. Abou 13 percen are nonbelievers, 7.5

percen are aheiss, and 2 percen proess oher religions. Bu among Caholics

only abou 25 percen atend services once a monh or more.

One more poin abou he church. Te church hierarchy in Spain is deeply con-servaive and anidemocraic o some exen. For hisorical reasons hey bene

rom he mos privileged sae nancing scheme in Europe. Every Sunday mass is

broadcas on public elevision because o pas habis ha sill persis. Moreover,

acive Caholics are a minoriy bu hey are very noisy, and orchesraed by he

church and he PP. Laely hey have aken a clear sance agains progressive poli-

cies hrough demonsraions and paricularly agains he PSOE governmen.

Geography

Te geographical paterns o he Spanish voe are no writen in sone. Tere are

many reasons or his.

Firs, compeiion among paries is no he same a he hree levelslocal,

regional, and naional. One would expec ha bigger ciies would have more pro-

gressive voers a he local level. Bu he ciy o Madrid, he larges in Spain, has

voed or he conservaive PP since 1991. Barcelona, he second larges, has voed

or he PSChe Caalan branch o he PSOEsince 1979.

Wha abou he ouskirs o hese ciies? In Madrid he norhern owns radiion-

ally voe PP while in he souh hey voe more or he PSOE, hough he PP voe

increased in recen elecions. In he owns around Barcelona he power o he PSC

is so dominan ha i has been called he red bel or many years. Moreover, in


23/33


many owns here are independen candidacies since here are 8,111 municipaliies.

So, or example, in he las local elecions in 2007 he PSOE obained 35.31 percen

o all he voes and he PP 36.01 percen, bu independens gained 6.29 percen o

all voes. Te oher 22.39 percen was disribued among regional paries.

Tese regional paries lead o he second reason why here is no sraighorwardgeographical patern or spli. In some regions he ideniy debae is highly relevan

poliically, and where i is sronges i makes he main naional paries second and

hird orces.

Consider Caalonia. Te conservaive naionalis CiU, under he leadership o

Jordi Pujol, kep he presidency o Caalonia or 23 years. Te Caalan branch

o he PSOE, he PSC, was he main opposiion pary. Te PPs bes resul was

hird place in he 1999 auonomic elecions. Te same happened in he Basque

Counry wih he conservaive naionalis PNV. Tere was a naionalis presiden

or more han 25 years here.

So where here is srong radiional naionalis eeling his ranslaes ino voes,

and consequenly, ino seas. Te examples o Caalonia and he Basque coun-

ry make his clear. Bu hese naionalis paries infuence canno be aken as a

general rule since in some regions where here is no such an inense naionalis

eeling he pary sysem imiaes he naional level (wo main paries, PSOE and

PP, obain he voes o mos ciizens). Ta is he case or Casilla La Mancha,

Andaluca, and Exremadura, which he PSOE has governed or more han

20 years. Te same is rue in some oher regions such as Madrid, Murcia, and

Valencia, where he PP has held power or more han 16 sraigh years.

Finally, in he naional conex, i should be sressed ha voe disribuion maters.

Te Spanish elecoral sysem avors he concenraion o he voe in big paries

due o a minimum provincial hreshold o voes o obain seas and relaively

small provincial areas. So in many provinces here are only wo pariesnamely,

PSOE and PPwih any real chance o obaining represenaion.


24/33


The new progressive coalition

Presiden Rodrguez Zapaero has buil a very srong social coaliion aimed a

expanding individual reedoms. Tis coaliion is based on women and some

groups radiionally excluded rom poliics such as dependens, immigrans, and

homosexuals. Te governmen pu special emphasis on enhancing equaliy poli-

cies. Te Ley de Dependencia, or dependence law, is creaing he ourh pillar o

he welare sae in Spain no only or dependens bu also or hose who ake care

o hem, mainly women. Such social policies creaed conroversy in many conser-

vaive circles.

A he same ime, he PSOE governmen is quie sensiive o regional demands

or more sel-governance. Te process o proclaiming and applying new regional

saues is proo o ha. Te Caalan saue, he rs o be implemened, was con-

roversialhe PP led a campaign agains ibu once he Caalan Parliamen

was esablished many oher regions such as Valencia and Andaluca did he

same. In ac, some aricles in he saues o Valencia and Andaluca are lieral

copies o Caalanias. And while he PP ried o revoke he Caalan saue in he

Consiuional Cour i did no do his or eiher he Valencian or he Andalusian

saues. Such behavior by he PP has also generaed an ani-PP voe among some

groups in hese regions.

Bu he governmens acions were no limied o he expansion o civil righs. I

inroduced more radiional social democraic policies. For insance, he mini-

mum wage was raised and pensions were increased yearly above infaion under

ormer Labor and Social Issues Secreary Jess Caldera (2004 -2008).

Te governmen also regularized an imporan number o immigrans who were

in an irregular siuaion. Many o hese immigrans may become Spanish ciizensa some poin, and consequenly will have he righ o voe. Tis is an imporan

group ha he PSOE mus ake ino accoun o coninue building he social

democraic coaliion.


25/33


Boh he PSOE coaliions srenghs and weaknesses should be considered during

analysis. Is srong poins are is abiliy o expand righs ha had been orgoten or

simply no even considered. In a word, he main asse or he PSOE governmen

has been inclusion: o dependens, women, immigrans, and gays.

Te problems o he coaliion are ha while he expansion o some social righsis cos reehere are no cos dierences in same-sex marriage compared o

radiional marriagehe promoion o oher righs is more expensive, and given

he counrys economic siuaion i may be dicul no only o mainain hem bu

even o keep some o hem.

In ac, some measures ha were aken during good economic imesand consid-

ered populis by manysuch as he 400 euro reund on he income ax had o be

abolished. Tis aeced he governmens credibiliy. Moreover, he rapid increase

in unemploymen may negaively aec he PSOEs success.

Besides he economic siuaion, he aging populaion and immigraion are wo

oher elemens social democras mus consider. Te ideological evoluion o he

young is paricularly worrisome. Younger voers were key in he 2004 and 2008

elecions. Bu when asked which ideological label hey eel closes o he young-

es cohors (18 o 24 years old) rs say liberal and only hen socialis. Tis

migh no be a problem i all he remaining age groups behave similarly, bu his is

no he case. Te socialis label is he mos preerred or all he oher age groups.

A liberal in Spain is dieren rom a liberal in he Unied Saes. A U.S. liberal

voes or he Democraic Pary. Te sel-proclaimed liberal pary in Spain is he PP,

no he PSOE. Hence he signicance o youhs ideological leanings.


26/33


The new progressive vision

Te new progressive vision or Spain is an ongoing process ha should be vigor-

ously discussed and debaed. Tis new vision should help kni ogeher he dispa-

rae elemens o he emerging progressive coaliion in Spain, uniing hem around

a common reorm program ha can successully deal wih economic and demo-

graphic challenges. Te ollowing are some key poins ha should be incorporaed

ino a new progressive vision.

Market reforms are progressive when they reduce privileges. In his sense,compeiion and he ree marke are le-wing values and progressives mus pro-

pose and deend hem. radiionally he narraive is reacive, and progressives

end o ocus on he markes unairness. Compeiion and he ree marke are,

however, le-wing values because hey are, by deniion, agains he dominaion

o he majoriy o he people by he ew, which conradics he idea o reedom.

Spain needs a strong and transparent state. A srong sae consolidaes he

progressive principles and he welare sae. Bu a ransparen sae is also neces-

sary because ransparency implies accounabiliy and leads o eciency.

At the same time, progressives should fight against those who act to main-

tain their privileges and block reform, no matter who they are. Some reorms

social democras promoed years ago have improved he lives o many who now

may eel heir saus quo is hreaened. In a sense a confic exiss beween a

reormis le and a conservaive le. Such conservaism is bad or he success o

a social democraic reorm program.

The equal opportunities principle should be constantly present in progres-

sives narratives and policies.

Equaliy o opporuniies in employmen, educa-ion, and promoion as well as in work condiions help o make progress oward

real equaliy.


27/33


Progressives should commit to effective and efficient government. An evalu-

aion o he resuls rom policies, insiuions, and civil servans work is useul

o orien public policymaking and spending.

Progressives should remind citizens that social advances should not be

taken for granted.

One o social democracys main problems is ha he bulko ciizens may ake some hings or graned when hey should no. Public

hospials did no always exis. Nor did public schools. Spain now enjoys one o

he highes percenages in universiy educaion, which is mainly atribuable o

previous socialis eors in educaion. Bu his was no always he case. Policy

makes a dierence. Tis does no mean ha social democras need o sir up ear.

Forunaely, circumsances in Spain, Europe, and he Unied Saes are beter

han hey used o be. Bu neiher poliics nor policies can be aken or graned,

and progressives mus insis on his.

Progressives should focus on the environment. Big policies involving sraegicacors such as energy companies are necessary or environmenal susainabiliy.

Bu progressives should place more sress on he regular everyday acions o

ciizens. Ciizens awareness also infuences he public sphere and behaviors in

sociey as a whole.


28/33


Conclusion

Tis paper ocused on he mos relevan rends in demographic change and heir

poenial impac on progressive poliical sraegy in Spain. Here are he key resuls.

In he rs secion, we summarized elecion resuls in he counry and dem-

onsraed how, since he rs democraic elecions, he voe in Spain has been

increasingly been concenraed in he wo main paries, PSOE and PP.

In he second secion we looked a how suppor or he Socialis Pary haschanged across a number o dieren socio-economic variables.

Immigraion is a crucial issue boh because o naives reacions and because o

he poliical impac rom immigrans becoming ull-righs ciizens. Regarding educaion, we showed ha in Spain here is no linear relaionship

wih paricipaion and ha PSOE obains more suppor among he less edu-

caed and less suppor among he mos educaed group. In erms o class, hose in a higher class posiion do paricipae more han he

res, bu more imporanly, hey voe more conservaively. Qualied and non-

qualied blue-collar workers, on he oher hand, consisenly voe more oen

or he PSOE. As or age, he younges voers do no consisenly avor he PSOE more han

older voers. Addiionally, in conras o he Unied Saes, he millennial gen-

eraion will no gain in imporance due o he rapid aging o Spanish sociey. On gender, women paricipae as much as men and are generally slighly more

likely o voe PSOE han men, hough only in 2008 was his dierence large. Religion maters in Spain and hose who mos assiduously atend religious ser-

vices voe more han he res and hey voe more conservaively.

Finally, we did no nd xed paterns on geographical voe disribuion.

Te hird secion analyzed he social coaliion supporing progressive policies in

Spain. Presiden Zapaero has buil a social coaliion wih he objecive o expand-

ing individual reedoms, which is one o he mos posiive resuls o his ime in


29/33


oce. Bu some o he social reorms he implemened ha improved he eco-

nomic siuaion o he vulnerable are expensive, and given he economic dicul-

ies, i may be hard o keep some o hese.

Finally, he las secion provided some principles and values ha could guide he

ype o sociey progressives seek o build.

More research is needed i we wan o expand and rene he general progressive

narraive. Sociey and he world have changed. Jus compare oday o 30 years

ago. Given he ransormaions we have gone hrough, how much did he values

srucure o Spanish sociey also change? How has he economic crisis aeced

he expecaions o our ciizens and heir percepions o he le, broadly dened?

We do no know much abou hese quesions, so we should make no easy assump-

ions and invesigae hem wih rigor. We have a lo o work o do in order o

ransorm sociey. Les ge moving.


30/33


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Endnotes

1 Irene Ramos, head o politics, citizenship and equality atIdeas Foundation, was responsible or the coordina-tion and the technical revision o the paper with theassistance o Marta Plaza, junior research ellow at IdeasFoundation. The paper includes comments by Carmende Paz, head o the Ideas Foundations I nternationalNetwork.

2 The basic elements o the Spanish electoral system,which aects the way in which the political systemis confgured, is determined by the dHondt electoralormula, a 3-percent provincial (district) threshold o thevalid votes and closed and blocked electoral lists. Thereare 350 seats, with a minimum number o two seats perprovince (with the exception o Ceuta and Melilla with

only one seat each), and the rest o the 248 seats aredistributed according to population.

3 Jos Fernndez-Albertos and Ferran Martnez i Coma,Los eectos de la campaa y de los debates electorales,

in Jos Ramn Montero e Ignacio Lago, eds. Elecciones2008 (2010).

4 20 percent unemployment rate according to December2010 data rom the Active Population Survey by theNational Statistics Institute.

5 E. Garca Viuela and J. Arts, Una estimacin del votoestratgico de Izquierda Unida al Partido Socialista enlas elecciones generales del perodo 2000-2008,RevistaEspaola de Investigaciones Sociolgicas (128) (2009):35-55.

6 J. Font and L. Ramiro, La concentracin del voto de

izquierda: cambio de preerencias o voto til? In JosRamn Montero e Ignacio Lago, eds. Elecciones 2008.

7 The number o parties, which tells us about the concen-tration o political power and is the most accepted in-strument to measure it, has declined in Spain since thefrst elections in 1977. (F. Ocaa and P. Oate, Eleccionesexcepcionales, elecciones de continuidad y sistemas departidos, Elecciones Generales 2004 (2007).)

8 R. Gunther, J.R. Montero, and J. Botella, Democracy inModern Spain (New Haven: Yale University Press, 2004),p: 221-225.

9 There is a general lack o data on political preerences oimmigrants.

10 A.Heath, R. Jowell, and J. Curtice, How Britain Votes (Ox-ord: Pergamon Press, 1985).

11 R. Inglehart, Modernization and Postmodernization(Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1997).

12 Figures rom the CIS survey data tend to understateoverall support or the PSOE particularly in earlier years,so the subgroup fgures in the tables will also tend tobe low in absolute terms. But the relative patterns osupport by subgroup still provide valuable inormation.

13 M. Franklin, T. Mackie, and H. Valen, et al. Electoral Change:Responses to Evolving Social and Attitudinal Structures inWestern Countries (Cambridge: Cambridge UniversityPress, 1992).

14 G. Evans, The End of Class Politics? Class Voting in Compara-tive Perspective (Oxord: Oxord University Press, 1999).

15 M. Cainzos, La evolucin del voto clasista en Espaa,1986-2000, Zona Abierta, (96/97) (2001): 91-171; J.Gonzlez, Clases, ciudadanos y clases de ciudadanos,Revista Espaola de Investigaciones Sociolgicas (74)(1996): 45-76; J. Gonzlez, Clases, cohortes, partidosy elecciones: qu sabemos de la experiencia espaola(1986-1996) y qu podemos aprender de ella,Revista In-ternacional de Sociologa (29) (2001): 1-23.See also, F. Pal-lars, C. Riba, and M. Fraile, Variables socioestructuralesy comportamiento electoral en las elecciones generalesespaolas. Una perspectiva evolutiva 1979-2000,Revista

de Estudios Polticos (135) (2007): 109-158.

16 J. Gonzlez, Las bases sociales de la poltica espaola,Revista Espaola de Sociologa (4) (2004): 119-142;Pallars, Fraile, and Riba, Variables socioestructurales ycomportamiento electoral en las elecciones generalesespaolas. Una perspectiva evolutiva 1979-2000, (2007).

17 David Miles, Modelling the Impact o DemographicChange upon the Economy, The Economic Journal109(452) (1999): 1-36.


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About the author

Ferran Marnez, Ph.D., is a sociologis and poliical scienis. He collaboraes as

an exper wih Ideas Foundaion.


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Demographic Change and Progressive Political Strategy in Spain

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