Democratic Transition and Democratic Transition and ConsolidationConsolidation

Kathryn StonerKathryn Stoner

July 26, 2013July 26, 2013

Where am I going?Where am I going?

1.1. Transition vs. consolidationTransition vs. consolidation

2.2. Transition to what?Transition to what?

3.3. Some theories of transition.Some theories of transition.

4.4. Why the Soviet/Russian case?Why the Soviet/Russian case?

5.5. What are the general lessons we What are the general lessons we can draw from this case? can draw from this case?

Democratic Triggers?Democratic Triggers?

Death of a Long Serving LeaderDeath of a Long Serving Leader

Defeat in WarDefeat in War

Decolonization/Collapse of EmpireDecolonization/Collapse of Empire

External OccupationExternal Occupation

Economic GrowthEconomic Growth

Economic Crisis Economic Crisis

Do Democratic Transitions Have Do Democratic Transitions Have Preconditions? Preconditions?

1. Wealth and democracy1. Wealth and democracy: “Modernization theory: “Modernization theory.” .” (Lipset)(Lipset)* Positive relationship between wealth and democracy: * Positive relationship between wealth and democracy: Why?Why?

Actors = societyActors = society* Literacy* Literacy* Urbanization* Urbanization* Demands of Greater Number of Owners* Demands of Greater Number of Owners-creates mobilization of socially excluded and demands for -creates mobilization of socially excluded and demands for change. change.

IN THIS THEORY, CHANGE COMES “FROM BELOW,” THAT IS, IN THIS THEORY, CHANGE COMES “FROM BELOW,” THAT IS, FROM THE PEOPLE ON THE STREET.FROM THE PEOPLE ON THE STREET.

..

--Dominant theory of democratic transition from Dominant theory of democratic transition from about 1960’s onward. about 1960’s onward.

-Emphasis on Economic Change leading to Social -Emphasis on Economic Change leading to Social ChangeChange

Policy prescriptions: Policy prescriptions: - develop economies,- develop economies,- open trade, - open trade, -educate population -educate population

All of this will create a constituency for All of this will create a constituency for representative government; people will demand it!representative government; people will demand it!

Modernization Theory:Modernization Theory:

Holes in Modernization TheoryHoles in Modernization Theory How wealthy does a country have to be How wealthy does a country have to be

before it tips to democracy?before it tips to democracy? There are some poor countries that have There are some poor countries that have

transited to democracy and maintained transited to democracy and maintained the system (eg. India)the system (eg. India)

There are some relatively rich countries There are some relatively rich countries that have maintained dictatorships or that have maintained dictatorships or monarchies (UAE, Saudi Arabia).monarchies (UAE, Saudi Arabia).

Still… the correlation remains, but direction Still… the correlation remains, but direction of causality is not crystal clearof causality is not crystal clear

Elite Pacting: The“3Elite Pacting: The“3rdrd Wave” Paradigm Wave” Paradigm

1.1. Waves concept (Huntington); Waves concept (Huntington); ** First wave in Europe- 1828-1926 (industrialization)First wave in Europe- 1828-1926 (industrialization)

** Second wave LA/Africa 1943-1962 (de-colonization; Second wave LA/Africa 1943-1962 (de-colonization; post WWII effect)post WWII effect)

** Third wave – 1974-1989, with what Huntington Third wave – 1974-1989, with what Huntington calls a second phase beginning in 1991 onward (L.America, calls a second phase beginning in 1991 onward (L.America,

Southern Europe; elite led)Southern Europe; elite led)

2. Third Wave paradigm vs. modernization 2. Third Wave paradigm vs. modernization theory: theory: Transition is Transition is not about society not about society and changing socio-and changing socio-economic structure as much as it is economic structure as much as it is about ELITESabout ELITES

The The ““Third WaveThird Wave”” Paradigm Paradigm(Rustow, O(Rustow, O’’Donnell & Schmitter, Przeworski, Karl)Donnell & Schmitter, Przeworski, Karl)

• Actors = ElitesActors = Elites• Splits in Ancien Regime --Softliners versus HardlinersSplits in Ancien Regime --Softliners versus Hardliners• Moderates versus Radicals (in society)Moderates versus Radicals (in society)

• Key Ingredient for Successful Transition = PactsKey Ingredient for Successful Transition = Pacts

• ““Limit agenda of policy choiceLimit agenda of policy choice””• Share proportionally in the distribution of benefitsShare proportionally in the distribution of benefits• Restrict the participation of outsiders in decision-making.Restrict the participation of outsiders in decision-making.

* Equal Balance of Power between incumbents and challengers * Equal Balance of Power between incumbents and challengers

* Process Is Cooperative, Non-Zero Sum* Process Is Cooperative, Non-Zero Sum

* Strategic Interaction Creates Democracy (* Strategic Interaction Creates Democracy (““democracy without democratdemocracy without democratss””))

Manezh Square, MoscowManezh Square, MoscowMarch 10, 1991March 10, 1991

3. The 3. The ““Fourth WaveFourth Wave”” Paradigm Paradigm(Bunce, Fish, McFaul,)(Bunce, Fish, McFaul,)

Actors = Elites AND MassesActors = Elites AND Masses

Pacts Not a Key Ingredient for SuccessPacts Not a Key Ingredient for Success

Agenda of policy choice was not limitedAgenda of policy choice was not limited• Distribution of benefits NOT shared proportionallyDistribution of benefits NOT shared proportionally• Participation of outsiders in decision-making not limited to Participation of outsiders in decision-making not limited to

eliteselites• Mobilization not a threat to democratizationMobilization not a threat to democratization

Equal BOP not a Necessary Condition for SuccessEqual BOP not a Necessary Condition for Success

Process Is Non-Cooperative, Often Zero SumProcess Is Non-Cooperative, Often Zero Sum

You Get Democracy only with (Powerful) You Get Democracy only with (Powerful) ““DemocratsDemocrats””

4. Transitions from outside?4. Transitions from outside?

• Can democratic transition be imposed from Can democratic transition be imposed from outside? (Iraq? Afghanistan? Germany? outside? (Iraq? Afghanistan? Germany? Japan?)Japan?)

• What can/do external actors do to What can/do external actors do to encourage transition?encourage transition?

MediaMedia Civil societyCivil society Demonstration effectDemonstration effect Contagion encouragementContagion encouragement Election monitoring trainingElection monitoring training What works???What works???

Democratic Transitions Democratic Transitions vs.vs.

Democratic ConsolidationDemocratic Consolidation

The causes of democratic transition are not necessarilyThe causes of democratic transition are not necessarily

the same factors as the causes of democratic consolidationthe same factors as the causes of democratic consolidation

Factors Facilitating Democratic Factors Facilitating Democratic StabilityStability (Consolidation) (Consolidation)

Levels of Wealth Levels of Wealth Income EqualityIncome Equality• Form of transition: from below and non-violent; Pacted Form of transition: from below and non-violent; Pacted

Transitions Non-Violent Transitions; What to do with old Transitions Non-Violent Transitions; What to do with old elites? “torturer problem” and “praetorian problemelites? “torturer problem” and “praetorian problem

Institutional Choices: Parliamentary Democracy (procedural Institutional Choices: Parliamentary Democracy (procedural legitimacy)legitimacy)

Ethnic Homogeneity (but not a specific “culture”)Ethnic Homogeneity (but not a specific “culture”) Diffusion: Democratic Neighborhoods Diffusion: Democratic Neighborhoods Performance (political and economic)Performance (political and economic) Time (Huntington): Two turnover test?Time (Huntington): Two turnover test?

Income and ConsolidationIncome and Consolidation

““……there is no doubt that democracies are there is no doubt that democracies are more likely to be found in the more highly more likely to be found in the more highly developed countries. Yet the reason is not developed countries. Yet the reason is not that democracies are more likely to that democracies are more likely to emerge when countries develop under emerge when countries develop under authoritarianism, but that, however they authoritarianism, but that, however they do emerge, they are more likely to survive do emerge, they are more likely to survive in countries that are already developed.in countries that are already developed.”” (Przeworski, et al, 2000, p. 106)(Przeworski, et al, 2000, p. 106)

New Democracies and Economic New Democracies and Economic PerformancePerformance

• Life expectancy of democracy with Life expectancy of democracy with decline in incomes: 19 yearsdecline in incomes: 19 years

• Life expectancy of democracy with rise Life expectancy of democracy with rise in incomes: 64 yearsin incomes: 64 years

Why Is Wealth Good for Why Is Wealth Good for Democracy?Democracy?

Do democracies govern better?Do democracies govern better?

Is democracy good for the poor? (eg. Is democracy good for the poor? (eg. increase in education, opportunity)?increase in education, opportunity)?

Lowers the Intensity of Distributional Lowers the Intensity of Distributional Conflicts? (greater equality?)Conflicts? (greater equality?)

Does Prior Regime Type Matter?Does Prior Regime Type Matter?Conventional Wisdom before 1989Conventional Wisdom before 1989

Authoritarian Regimes Can Authoritarian Regimes Can Democratize (Totalitarian cannot)Democratize (Totalitarian cannot)• Private Sector ExistsPrivate Sector Exists• ““ResurrectionResurrection”” of Civil Society of Civil Society• Restoring democratic institutionsRestoring democratic institutions

• Changing Changing ““regimeregime”” easier than changing easier than changing whole systemwhole system

Does Priori Regime Type Matter?Does Priori Regime Type Matter?(Cont.)(Cont.)

Totalitarian Regimes Cannot Totalitarian Regimes Cannot DemocratizeDemocratize• No Private SectorNo Private Sector• No Civil Society to No Civil Society to ““ResurrectResurrect”” • Stakes of Change Too HighStakes of Change Too High

Political and economic power intertwinedPolitical and economic power intertwined

Does Prior Regime Type Matter?Does Prior Regime Type Matter?The New Conventional Wisdom, (Geddes)The New Conventional Wisdom, (Geddes)

Military Juntas Easier to democratizeMilitary Juntas Easier to democratize• Soldiers go back to barracksSoldiers go back to barracks• Old institutions can be revivedOld institutions can be revived

““ReRe””democratization easierdemocratization easier Personalist RegimesPersonalist Regimes

• Small group relying on state for wealthSmall group relying on state for wealth• Who governs after death of dictator?Who governs after death of dictator?

Hegemonic Party SystemsHegemonic Party Systems• Have bigger Have bigger ““selectorateselectorate””• Can withstand crises better than generals, Can withstand crises better than generals,

personalist dictators: cooptionpersonalist dictators: cooption

Survivability Rates of Autocracies Survivability Rates of Autocracies (1946-1999)(1946-1999)

Military Regimes: 9 years Military Regimes: 9 years Personalist Regimes: 15 yearsPersonalist Regimes: 15 years Single-party regimes: 23 yearsSingle-party regimes: 23 years

TheocraciesTheocracies• Islamic Republic of Iran (27 years)Islamic Republic of Iran (27 years)• Taliban in Afghanistan (5 years)Taliban in Afghanistan (5 years)

2. Does institutional choice matter? 2. Does institutional choice matter?

Parliamentary vs. Presidential Systems:Parliamentary vs. Presidential Systems:

Transitions to DictatorshipTransitions to Dictatorship1951-19901951-1990

39 Presidential Systems39 Presidential Systems

13 Parliamentary Systems13 Parliamentary Systems

2 Mixed Systems2 Mixed Systems

Expected Life of DemocraciesExpected Life of Democracies1950-19901950-1990

Parliamentary Systems: 73 YearsParliamentary Systems: 73 Years

Presidential Systems: 21 Years Presidential Systems: 21 Years

How to Undermine How to Undermine Democracy (and Democracy (and Development):Development):

Lessons from Lessons from RussiaRussia

Quick refresher on fall of Soviet Quick refresher on fall of Soviet UnionUnion

Gorbachev, 1985-1991Gorbachev, 1985-1991• Perestroika and glasnostPerestroika and glasnost• Halting economic reformHalting economic reform• Opens up electoral processOpens up electoral process• Attempted coup against him in August Attempted coup against him in August

1991; fails but Boris Yeltsin effectively 1991; fails but Boris Yeltsin effectively takes overtakes over

• Soviet Union collapses Dec. 25, 1991Soviet Union collapses Dec. 25, 1991• 15 independent countries emerge15 independent countries emerge

Boris YeltsinBoris Yeltsin Elected first President of Russia in June 1991Elected first President of Russia in June 1991 Former Commie Boss and member of Politburo (so old Former Commie Boss and member of Politburo (so old

regime technically)regime technically) Conflict with GorbachevConflict with Gorbachev 1991 August is his finest moment1991 August is his finest moment Economic turmoil 1991-1998 (not all his fault)Economic turmoil 1991-1998 (not all his fault) Gives democracy a bad name “kleptocracy” because of Gives democracy a bad name “kleptocracy” because of

economic reforms of 1992-1998economic reforms of 1992-1998• Chechen warChechen war• Appoints Putin PM in August 1999Appoints Putin PM in August 1999• Resigns in December 1999 and tells Putin “Take care of Russia” also Resigns in December 1999 and tells Putin “Take care of Russia” also

apologizes to Russians!apologizes to Russians!

“…“…there are no steps forward. On the there are no steps forward. On the contrary, they are pulling us back into the contrary, they are pulling us back into the past, while the country is urgently in need of past, while the country is urgently in need of modernization…modernization…Putin wants to stay in power, but not so that Putin wants to stay in power, but not so that he can finally solve our most pressing he can finally solve our most pressing problems: education, healthcare, poverty. problems: education, healthcare, poverty. The people are not being asked, and the The people are not being asked, and the parties are puppets of the regime…”parties are puppets of the regime…”

---Mikhail Gorbachev, August 16, -Mikhail Gorbachev, August 16, 20122012

Fast forward to last year or soFast forward to last year or so

Population: 141.8 millionPopulation: 141.8 millionGNI/capita, PPP: US$19,240GNI/capita, PPP: US$19,240Source: The data Source: The data above were provided by The World Bank, above were provided by The World Bank, World Development Indicators World Development Indicators 2012.2012.

Source: http://www.freedomhouse.org/report/nations-transit/2012/russia Source: http://www.freedomhouse.org/report/nations-transit/2012/russia

Modernization (a refresher)Modernization (a refresher)

Economic growth leads to social changeEconomic growth leads to social change• Emergence of propertied middle classEmergence of propertied middle class• UrbanizationUrbanization• Education levels riseEducation levels rise• Middle class demand representation and Middle class demand representation and

accountable government in return for taxation accountable government in return for taxation by stateby state

• Mobilization of society leads to political Mobilization of society leads to political liberalization and eventually democratic liberalization and eventually democratic institutions of accountabilityinstitutions of accountability

Modernization Defied? Modernization Defied? Putin 2.0Putin 2.0

Is Putin’s Russia defying modernization Is Putin’s Russia defying modernization theory ?theory ?Russian economy grew 7-8 percent year on Russian economy grew 7-8 percent year on year from 2000-2008; emergence of urban year from 2000-2008; emergence of urban middle class in big cities at leastmiddle class in big cities at leastContent, if not formal institutions, of Content, if not formal institutions, of democracy steadily eroded, but now erosion is democracy steadily eroded, but now erosion is accelerating under Putin version 2.0accelerating under Putin version 2.0What are implications for political and What are implications for political and economic development in the next 5-11 economic development in the next 5-11 years?years?

Russia’s Economic Growth 1999-2012 (with Russia’s Economic Growth 1999-2012 (with projected 2013)projected 2013)

Source: The World Bank, Perspectives on Development blog. Worldbank.orgSource: The World Bank, Perspectives on Development blog. Worldbank.org

Russian Economic Overview 2013Russian Economic Overview 2013

ECONOMY OVERVIEWECONOMY OVERVIEWREGIONREGION Eastern Europe & Central Eastern Europe & Central

AsiaAsiaINCOME CATEGORYINCOME CATEGORY Upper middle incomeUpper middle incomePOPULATIONPOPULATION 141,930,000141,930,000GNI PER CAPITA (US$)GNI PER CAPITA (US$) 10,40010,400DOING BUSINESS 2013 RANKDOING BUSINESS 2013 RANK 112112DOING BUSINESS 2012 RANKDOING BUSINESS 2012 RANK 118118CHANGE IN RANKCHANGE IN RANK 6 6

(Source: (Source: http://www.doingbusiness.org/data/exploreeconomies/russia/#)http://www.doingbusiness.org/data/exploreeconomies/russia/#)

Doing business in russia, 2013 Doing business in russia, 2013 Source:http://www.doingbusiness.org/data/exploreeconomies/russia/#Source:http://www.doingbusiness.org/data/exploreeconomies/russia/#

TOPIC RANKINGSTOPIC RANKINGS 2013 2013 2012 2012 Change in Change in

RankRank

Starting a BusinessStarting a Business 101101 105105 4 4 Dealing with Construction PermitsDealing with Construction Permits178178 180180 2 2 Getting ElectricityGetting Electricity 184184 184184 No No

changechange Registering PropertyRegistering Property 4646 4545 -1 -1 Getting CreditGetting Credit 104104 9797 -7 -7 Protecting InvestorsProtecting Investors 117117 114114 -3 -3 Paying TaxesPaying Taxes 6464 9494 30 30 Trading Across BordersTrading Across Borders 162162 161161 -1 -1 Enforcing ContractsEnforcing Contracts 1111 1212 1 1 Resolving InsolvencyResolving Insolvency 5353 6161 8 8

What is Putinism?What is Putinism?

Excessive dependence on natural Excessive dependence on natural resource revenues, even post 2008resource revenues, even post 2008

Crony capitalismCrony capitalism Extreme inequalityExtreme inequality Low investment in human capitalLow investment in human capital Low investment in infrastructural Low investment in infrastructural

capital (even in oil)capital (even in oil) Weak rule of law and uncertain Weak rule of law and uncertain

property rights discourage foreign property rights discourage foreign investment investment

Undermining Development:Undermining Development:

What is Putinism?What is Putinism?

Undermining DemocracyUndermining Democracy• Weak accountability; elections don’t bring Weak accountability; elections don’t bring

accountability, participation, or legitimacyaccountability, participation, or legitimacy• Personalization of power; informal rules matter Personalization of power; informal rules matter

more than formal institutionsmore than formal institutions• Media control; weak and selective rule of lawMedia control; weak and selective rule of law• All opposition viewed as subversive rather than All opposition viewed as subversive rather than

“loyal” or constructive“loyal” or constructive• state works against society in favor of private state works against society in favor of private

interests over public; corruption flourishes; interests over public; corruption flourishes; security services discourage participation in security services discourage participation in public politicspublic politics

Undermining legitimacy?Undermining legitimacy? ““Castling” of Medvedev/Putin in 2011-Castling” of Medvedev/Putin in 2011-

1212 Reactions to electoral results Dec. 2011 Reactions to electoral results Dec. 2011

and then protests in January and May and then protests in January and May 20122012

Democracy not as easily managed as Democracy not as easily managed as once was so must manage further and once was so must manage further and ultimately undermine it ultimately undermine it • Crackdown on civil societyCrackdown on civil society• Create imaginary enemiesCreate imaginary enemies• Get rid of foreign influenceGet rid of foreign influence

Fall 2011Fall 2011

December 2011December 2011

Spring 2012Spring 2012

Spring 2012Spring 2012

Arab Spring, but no Russian WinterArab Spring, but no Russian Winter

Putin is still a relatively popular Putin is still a relatively popular incumbent whereas Mubarak, etc. were incumbent whereas Mubarak, etc. were not.not.• Got 60%+ of vote in March 2012 with some Got 60%+ of vote in March 2012 with some

fraud (probably)fraud (probably)• No real prospect of overthrowNo real prospect of overthrow• No real alternative to Putin given poorly No real alternative to Putin given poorly

organized opposition and his persecution of organized opposition and his persecution of potential oppositionpotential opposition

• Be careful not to generalize based on Be careful not to generalize based on politics “Inside the Garden Ring” vs. “Rest politics “Inside the Garden Ring” vs. “Rest of Russia”of Russia”

Evolution vs. RevolutionEvolution vs. Revolution Not all protests need to lead to regime Not all protests need to lead to regime

change to have some positive effectchange to have some positive effect ““Russian Winter” lead, at least initially, to Russian Winter” lead, at least initially, to

evolutionary, not revolutionary, change in evolutionary, not revolutionary, change in RussiaRussia• Putin forced to campaign (sort of )Putin forced to campaign (sort of )• Promises of some change and reform and now Promises of some change and reform and now

has to pay for thosehas to pay for those• Even evolutionary, incremental change, is Even evolutionary, incremental change, is

better than no change at allbetter than no change at all• But change we seem to be seeing now is more But change we seem to be seeing now is more

evolving and hardening of autocracy, not evolving and hardening of autocracy, not democracydemocracy

The Modern Development Paradigm The Modern Development Paradigm (Fukuyama)(Fukuyama)

Economic GrowthEconomic Growth Social MobilizationSocial Mobilization

LegitimacyLegitimacy

State-buildingState-building Rule of LawRule of Law AccountabilityAccountability

LessonsLessons

Wealth and democracyWealth and democracy Institutions matter Institutions matter Sequence of development?Sequence of development? Performance legitimacyPerformance legitimacy External Influence on transition External Influence on transition

ineffective?ineffective?