Demantra Demand Planning
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Transcript of Demantra Demand Planning
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Triniti Confidential
The material contained in this document is proprietary to Triniti
Corporation (Triniti). This material may not be disclosed,
duplicated or otherwise revealed, in whole or in part, without
prior written consent.
Demantra Demand Planning
The material contained in this document is proprietary to Triniti
Corporation (Triniti). This material may not be disclosed,
duplicated or otherwise revealed, in whole or in part, without
prior written consent.
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2Triniti Confidential
Index
• JR286 – Current configuration• AS Is forecasting process• Current Pain Points • What Demantra brings in • How problems can be solved• To be process
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Triniti Confidential
Truth About Demand PlanningTruth About Demand Planning
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Demand Management: Demand Management: How people knew it so far….How people knew it so far….
• Difficult to aggregate forecasting at multiple levels
Category Level/Family Level/Product Level/Customer Level ..and more..
• Long forecasting cycles – End-to-End cycles are time confusing
• Batch Process – real time information is not present
• Forecast accuracy- Poor forecast accuracy leads to unsatisfied customers
• Not scalable:- most companies don’t know how to deal with increased number of customers and opportunties
• Factors– its difficult to apply seasonality and other factors
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The sad stories continue..The sad stories continue..
• Too many versions of the same forecast is present
• Revenue Planning is being done offline / manually
• Manual Efforts require to collate the data such as shipment history, backlog.
• Lacks the ability to archive various forecasts
• No visibility of off-cycle forecast changes
• Different departments forecast in different units of measure, and thus cannot be merged to have a single demand plan
– Marketing: % of market share by brand– Sales: revenue by customer/territory– Finance: Revenue and net profits per quarter– Supply Chain: SKU by ship-to location (advanced)
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Here is what happens afterwards
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Triniti Confidential
OpportunitiesOpportunities
Can somethingCan something be done after all? be done after all?
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OpportunitiesOpportunities
• Improved reporting at all levels of an organization • Better measurement and metrics • Feed the best forecast to plan and generate commitment plan back from
ASCP • Ability to capture multiple forecasts and compare• Enable Statistical forecasting• Monitoring of demand forecast at multiple levels• More accurate demand forecast• Ability to provide better & fast supply dates for changes/enquiries • Easy delegation/approval process thru workflow • Role base security to avoid sharing of unnecessary data
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Triniti Confidential
Introducing
Oracle DemantraOracle Demantra
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Shape Demand Shape Demand
Understand DemandUnderstand Demand
Respond to Demand Respond to Demand
Plan for Demand Plan for Demand
Demand Management
Trade Promotion Management
Trade Promotion Management
Real-Time Sales and Operations PlanningReal-Time Sales and Operations Planning
Business Process PlatformBusiness Process Platform
Demantra’s End-to-End SolutionDemantra’s End-to-End Solution
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Demantra: Forecasting CapabilitiesDemantra: Forecasting Capabilities
• Statistical forecasting using Causal factors
• Inbuilt New product introduction Mapping
• Unlimited Hierarchies, Dimensions, Levels and Attributes
• Mixed/Multiple Demand Signals• Ability to measure/track the past
performance • Bayesian Collaboration
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Oracle Demantra – Causal Forecasting
Estimating techniques based on the assumption that the variable to be forecast (dependent variable) has cause-and-effect relationship
with one or more other (independent) variables.
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Reaction to MarketReaction to Market
Demantra can sense the causal factors and catalysts for demand change and apply them for future demands
It has a unique capability of separating trends & cycles from the causal factors
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Near Real-time Forecast RevisionNear Real-time Forecast Revision
Demantra can quickly manipulate the forecast by intelligently understanding the deviation
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Granular AnalysisGranular Analysis
From “what happened” … To comprehensive understanding of promotion impact
0
500
1000
1500
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Week 1 Week 6 Week 11
Week
Cas
es
Actual
TPR Display
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Week 1 Week 6 Week 11
Week
Cases
Cannibalization
Forward buying
Pantry loading
Competitive switching
Category growth
Baseline
Actual
Netlift
Baseline
TPR Display
Gross lift
“This presentation is for informational purposes only and may not be incorporated into a contract or agreement.”
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Actual Shipments
Promotional Execution
In-FlightConsumption
Data
Sales
Marketing
Manufacturing
Finance
ExecutiveProductDevelop-
ment
Consensus
Promotional & Volume Plans
Strategic Plans
Capacity Plans
PhaseIn/Phase Out Products
Demand Plans
Profitability
Service Levels
Inventory Levels
Promotion Effectiveness
Plan Accuracy
AlertsExceptions
Inputs Outputs
Demantra: S&OPDemantra: S&OP
Real-time
“This presentation is for informational purposes only and may not be incorporated into a contract or agreement.”
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EBS Planning FootprintEBS Planning Footprint
DemantraPredictive Trade Planning
and Optimization
Sales and Operations Planning
Demand Management
De
ma
nd
Ch
ain
Pla
nn
ing
Oracle APS
Strategic Network Design
Inventory Optimization
Adv. Supply Planning
Su
pp
ly C
ha
in P
lan
nin
g
Global Order Promising
Collaborative Planning
Production Scheduling
Supply Chain
Execution
E-Business Suite
EBS
ERP
CRM
Sea
mle
ssIn
teg
rati
on
“This presentation is for informational purposes only and may not be incorporated into a contract or agreement.”
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• Excellent Offline Capabilities
• Oracle Demantra anywhere
• Dynamic Open Link to Excel and other BI tools
• Consensus Planning
• Reporting & analysis
• Collaboration Platform - alerts & exceptions
Other capabilities Other capabilities
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19Triniti Confidential
Allentown, PA USA
Hyderabad, India
Tokyo, Japan
Cambridge, UK
Triniti Advanced Software Labs (TASL)
Triniti
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Other
Our Customers
Hi-Tech
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22Triniti Confidential
Triniti – Relevant HistoryLucent Microelectronics an IDM and Level One Communications a Fabless company co-sponsor customizations to Oracle Discrete Manufacturing to enable Lot level detail to be transacted in Oracle 10.7
Triniti and Oracle Consulting collaborate to make these customizations.
Lucent Microelectronics goes Live integrating all Internal factories and Subcontractors
Triniti deploys customized adapters to integrate MES’s to Oracle and customized master data maintenance tool named ‘GPS’
Silterra, a Foundry in Malaysia goes live on Oracle 11i
Triniti deploys the first version of eDapter that integrates Sliterra’s PROMIS MES to OSFM
Sony Semiconductor announces intent to implement Oracle release 11i including OSFM and APS
Triniti chosen as the implementer. Triniti eDapter chosen as the product for integration. Sony signs LOI with Triniti to build data maintenance tool
Sony Semiconductor goes Live on 11.5.8 integrating all Internal factories and Subcontractors. Within 3 months achieve one-day-close.
Triniti deploys the entire EBS and second version of eDapter and first version of Triniti data quality suite
Cambridge Silicon Radio goes Live on 11.5.9 integrating all foundries and Subcontractors.
Triniti deploys the entire EBS and second version of eDapter and second version of Triniti data quality suite
Qualcomm CDMA Technologies goes Live on 11.5.9 with integration to foundries and SUCON’s
Triniti deploys edapter
Microtune and Zoran integrate foundries and SUBCON’s to their Oracle EBS deployments. Cavium Networks automates onsite transactions
Triniti deploys eDapter at Microtune & Zoran and data quality suite at Cavium Networks
1997 1999 2000 2001 2003 2005 2006 2007
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"In our i-Semicon (Oracle Application Implementation) project, we have implemented a Triniti productivity tool named, "Triniti Product Modeler" aimed at substantial improvements in the speed and accuracy of creating and maintaining the complete Supply chain (Item, Bill of Materials, and Sourcing Rule). Today, our users can create, edit, and revise complex bill of materials in a fraction of the time it would take otherwise."
-- Shuji Kuroki,Global Master Center Lead,Sony Semiconductor Kyushu Corporation
“The Triniti solution has successfully delivered a scalable, automated process reducing at least 6hrs a day of manual WIP input to minutes and pulled up to 7 days of slack out of our supply data. We plan to develop several reports with summary and drill down data leading to dashboard KPI’s from the data available as a result of our implementation.”
--Troy Dawson,Director ERP SystemsMicrotune
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Triniti Confidential
Demantra Solution
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Cust1
Automatic Download
Cust2 Cust3
Approval
Notification
Simulation Forecast
UploadForecast
ASCPASCP
Actual Sales data
Final Forecast
DemantraEngine
Supply Plan& Allocated ATP
•With Demantra we will have role base security for viewing and updating the data
•Activities will be automated thru work flow, which will include notification and approval steps also
•Data integration – (Upload and download) will be automatic
To Be ProcessTo Be Process
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Cust1
Automatic Download
Cust2 Cust3
Approval
Notification
Simulation Forecast
UploadForecast
ASCPASCP
Actual Sales data
Final Forecast
DemantraEngine
Supply Plan& Allocated ATP
Once the customer file is ready & available in a folder, its automatically download to Demantra
File can be at SKU level or at the higher level, if it’s at the higher level, it will be propagated to the lower level based on actual sales data
To Be ProcessTo Be Process
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Cust1
Automatic Download
Cust2 Cust3
Approval
Notification
Simulation Forecast
UploadForecast
ASCPASCP
Actual Sales data
Final Forecast
DemantraEngine
Supply Plan& Allocated ATP
Once customer files are downloaded, a notification is sent to demand Plan manager
Demand Planner verifies the data to see if everything looks ok.
Demand Planner communicates back with customers if something is not correct
To Be ProcessTo Be Process
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Cust1
Automatic Download
Cust2 Cust3
Approval
Notification
Simulation Forecast
UploadForecast
ASCPASCP
Actual Sales data
Final Forecast
DemantraEngine
Supply Plan& Allocated ATP
•Sales quantities are loaded on a daily basis from ERP instance
•Demand Planner approves the forecast downloaded which triggers into Demantra Demand Planning Engine
To Be ProcessTo Be Process
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Cust1
Automatic Download
Cust2 Cust3
Approval
Notification
Simulation Forecast
UploadForecast
ASCPASCP
Actual Sales data
Final Forecast
DemantraEngine
Supply Plan& Allocated ATP
•As a result of Demand Planning engine run, statistical forecast is generated based on the actual sales history
•System sends notification to demand planners confirming the availability of statistical forecast
To Be ProcessTo Be Process
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Cust1
Automatic Download
Cust2 Cust3
Approval
Notification
Simulation Forecast
UploadForecast
ASCPASCP
Actual Sales data
Final Forecast
DemantraEngine
Supply Plan& Allocated ATP
•Demand Planners compare the results of statistical forecast with actual forecast
•Planners can choose the best fit of all the available forecasts, also they have the flexibility of choosing a forecast combination of available forecasts
•Planners send the final forecast for approval.
To Be ProcessTo Be Process
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Cust1
Automatic Download
Cust2 Cust3
Approval
Notification
Simulation Forecast
UploadForecast
ASCPASCP
Actual Sales data
Final Forecast
DemantraEngine
Supply Plan& Allocated ATP
•Demand manager may see the forecast on the aggregated level and may make necessary changes to it
•After manager approves the forecast, its available for uploading into ASCP
To Be ProcessTo Be Process
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Cust1
Automatic Download
Cust2 Cust3
Approval
Notification
Simulation Forecast
UploadForecast
ASCPASCP
Actual Sales data
Final Forecast
DemantraEngine
Supply Plan& Allocated ATP
•Final forecast is loaded to ASCP Plan from where it can be used to generate the supply plan & allocation data for ATP inquiries
•ASCP can plan can be sent back to Demantra as the commitment plan which can be shared with customers
To Be ProcessTo Be Process
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Ship To
Demand Class I tems
Academy 299 Bass-Pro 132 Big-5 76 Cabela 102 DICKS 356 Dome 278 Forzani 316 Hibbett 4,279 Modell 269 TSA 357 UA-Indy 53 UA-Key 3,724 Undr-Armr 518
BrandBrand
Product LineProduct Line
CategoryCategory
StyleStyle
Product Hierarchy
Org JR-286 Reign
Forecasting
Order Booking
Order Shipping
Planned (ASCP)
Ship From
Available combinations Available combinations
SKUSKU
2
38
4
Appro 250
Appro 2500
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Triniti Confidential
Backup Slides
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Projection Workbook
Manual Supply Plan
Used in Production
Oracle
CONSUMPTIONCONSUMPTION
ASCP
Supply Plan2
Excel Adjustment
File
s by d
em
and
C
lass
Demand Management – AS ISDemand Management – AS IS
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Triniti Confidential
Demantra
What would you see in it?
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Who’s online from your
collaboration group
User defined Realtime KPI’s
Workflow and Exception
based Tasks and Alerts
User DefinedCPFR
Worksheets
Realtime Status
Information
Responding to Demand
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Analytics To Understand Demand
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Sales Input
Sales AccuracyFor Incentives
Key Account PlanInformation
Account Trade and Consumer
Promotions Calendar
Consensus
Example: Internal Collaboration
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Configurable Planning Environment to Match Your Planning Process
Historical Info
Forecast Override
Management
Approval
Final Plan
Flexible BusinessHierarchy
Marketing
Activities
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Collaborate with Customers
Partner Inputs:
XML,EDI or Manual
Production Mix
Partner Forecast Metrics
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Business Modeler
Scheduler
Engine Admin
Workflow Builder
Other ComponentsOther Components