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$: Demand Patterns; Geometric Design of Airfieldaviation.itu.edu.tr/\img\aviation\datafiles/Lecture Notes/Airport... · Page 2 Demand Patterns; Geometric Design of Airfield q Objective:$
Demand Patterns; Geometric Design of AirfieldProf. Amedeo Odoni

Airport Planning and Management

Module 4

January 2016

Istanbul Technical University

Air Transportation Management

M.Sc. Program

Page 2

Demand Patterns; Geometric Design of Airfield

q Objective:

– Review (a) Airport Demand Patterns and (b) Geometric

Design Specifications, as important background to

lectures on Airport Planning

q Topics:

– Airport Demand Patterns

• Variability of demand

• Some key observations

• Converting annual forecasts into monthly, daily and

hourly ones

– Geometric Design Specifications

• ICAO and FAA Reference Codes

• Practical observations

• Examples of specifications and their rationale

Page 3

OutlineAirport Demand Patterns



• Converting annual forecasts into monthly,

daily and hourly ones

q Geometric Design Specifications



• Examples of specifications and their

rationale

Airport Capacity Management: General Framework

q Capacity management refers to the steps that an

airport must take in order to offer sufficient capacity

to match demand and provide an adequate Level of

Service (LOS)

q Demand management refers to interventions aimed

at modifying demand; such interventions may be

necessary if available capacity is not sufficient to

ensure adequate LOS

q To provide and manage capacity, it is necessary to

understand well the characteristics of both demand

and capacity on both airside and landside

q The issues and the measures of LOS on airside

and on landside are quite different Page 4

Variability of Airport Demand: Time-of-Day

All airports experience time-of-day variability in demand

intensity, for a number of reasons:

– Preference of travelers for certain times of the day

(especially true for business travel)

– “Natural” times for flying on certain long-haul routes

(e.g., most flights from Eastern United States to Europe

depart between 4 PM and 11 PM)

– Curfews (typically due to noise restrictions)

At all airports, the composition of demand (arrivals vs.

departures, domestic vs. international, short-haul vs. long-

haul, business vs. leisure) also varies by time-of-day

Page 5

Variability of Airport Demandq Significant variability in demand may also exist with

respect to:

– Day of the week (e.g., in the US, Saturday is the

lowest day, Sunday is second lowest, while

weekdays are similar to one another and have the

highest demand)

– Month and season (e.g., summer vs. winter, high

and low months, influence of religious or other

holidays)

– Special events (e.g., sports, expos, etc.)

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Page 7










rationale

Two Key Observations

At “mature” airports (= those that have been operating for

some years and have a relatively stable set of airline

customers:

Peaking patterns and demand variability at

busy airports are typically very consistent

from year to year, over periods of many years

“Flattening” of daily and seasonal demand patterns:

As annual demand grows, the “peaks” and

“valleys” of daily demand profiles and

seasonal demand profiles become less sharp

At a few extremely congested airports (LHR, FRA, LGA)

demand profiles are completely “flat” because of limits

imposed by capacity constraints Page 8

Daily Demand Profile: Newark Aircraft Movements

Page 9

Daily Demand Profile: Newark Aircraft Movements

(% of Daily Movements)

Page 10

Stability of Monthly Patterns: Total Movements

at the 3 New York Airports

Page 11

Stability of Monthly Patterns: No. of Passengers at NY JFK

Page 12

Monthly Pax and Movements: Athens, 2008-2012

Page 13

Source: AIA (2012)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

IST Total Demand: 2013 vs. 2011

Total: 2011: 950 movts; 2013: 1151 movts (+21%) [LHR=1350]

Peak hour: 2011: 65 movts; 2013: 64 movts (-1%)

Peaking factor for the day (2013):

64/1151= 0.056 or 5.6%

For 2011: 65/950= 0.068 or 6.8%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

IST Arrivals Demand: 2013 vs. 2011

Totals: 2011: 461 arrs; 2013: 572 arrs (+24%)

Peak hour: 2011: 33 arrs; 2013: 33 arrs (0%)


33/572= 0.058 or 5.8%

2011: 33/461= 0.072 or 7.2%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

IST Departures Demand: 2013 vs. 2011

Totals: 2011: 489 deps; 2013: 579 deps (+18%)

Peak hour: 2011: 42 deps; 2013: 36 deps (-14%)


36/579= 0.062 or 6.2%

2011: 42/489= 0.086 or 8.6%

Athens: Pax in Peak Hours of the Year as % of

Annual Pax

Page 17

Source: AIA (2012)

Another Observation Business passenger trips least variability over a year

International personal leisure trips highest variability

Domestic less variable than international

Example: New York’s Airports, 2011

*Monthly peaking = (Average no. per day during peak month)/

Average no. per day during entire year)

Question: Why is peaking of passengers sharper than peaking

of movements?

Page 18

Airport Monthly

Peaking*

Passengers

Monthly

Peaking*

Movements

LaGuardia [high business] 1.082 1.047

Newark [mostly domestic] 1.177 1.072

JFK International [mostly intern’l] 1.193 1.117

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Geometric Design Specifications




rationale

Converting Annual ForecastsTypically airport demand forecasts provide

estimates of future annual number of passengers

and annual number of movements

For airport planning, design and management

purposes, it is necessary to convert these annual

forecasts into forecasts of

– Peak monthly demand

– Peak daily demand

– Peak hourly demand

This can be done by developing “conversion

coefficients” using historical data and our two key

observations. [See Reference 2 for details.]Page 20

Converting Annual Forecasts [2]

The value of the conversion coefficients depends

on many things, such as:

– Overall size of demand

– Seasonality of traffic

– “Peakiness” of daily traffic

– Presence or absence of curfew hours

– Geographical location and time zone of airport

One must also exercise judgment about

potential changes in peaking as demand

increases and circumstances change

Page 21

Example: VERY ROUGH Calculation

q Peak hour departing passengers when the New Airport will be

handling 100 million passengers per year:

50 million x (1/365) x (1.19) x 0.062 = 10,107 10,000 dep pax

1.19 = hypothetical peaking factor for 30th busiest day (based

on 2013 data for IST)

0.062 = hypothetical daily peaking factor (based on 2013 data

for IST)

q The conversion coefficient in this example is:

(1/365) x (1.19) x 0.062 = 0.000202 [or 0.0202%]

Note: Total passengers in a peak day for a 100 million airport

will exceed 300,000! [100 million x (1/365) x (1.19) = 326,000]

Page 22

Detailed Recordsq Airport operators should

– Collect and maintain detailed historical records

of operations

– Perform statistical analyses with the data

– Perform data mining to identify significant

patterns and trends

q Large databases developed by air navigation

service providers (ANSP) and airlines are

becoming increasingly common

– often available to airport operators and

sometimes to researchers or the general

publicPage 23

References

1. de Neufville, R. and A. Odoni (2013) Airport

Systems: Planning, Design and Management,

2nd Edition, McGraw-Hill Education. [Chapter

21]

2. ACRP, Airport Cooperative Research Program

(2012), Guidelines for Preparing Peak Period

and Operational Profiles, Guidebook Report 03-

12, prepared by HNTB in association with Oliver

Wyman & TransSolutions, LLC., Transportation

Research Board, Washington, DC.

Page 24

Page 25










rationale

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Airfield Design Specifications The two most-commonly used sources of

geometric specifications for airfield design are:

1. ICAO Annex 14 (“Aerodromes”) [latest 2013,

6th Edition] and many associated documents,

esp. Aerodrome Design Manual, Parts 1 + 2

2. FAA Advisory Circular 150/5300-13 (“Airport

Design”) [latest: Sept. 2012]

FAA updates of specifications are usually

developed earlier than updates to ICAO Annex

14 (e.g., Group VI standards)

Runway length requirements: AC 150/5325-4B

Reference: de Neufville and Odoni, Ch. 9, Secs. 2-

3, 5-9

Page 27

ICAO Aerodrome Reference Code

Page 28

FAA Runway Design Code (RDC)

Aircraft Approach

Category (AAC)

Approach Speed (AS)

A: < 91 knots

B: 91 – <121 knots

C: 121 – <141 knots

D: 141 – <166 knots

E: 166+ knots

Airplane Design Group (ADG)

Wingspan (WS) Tail Height (TH)

I: < 49 ft <20 ft

<15 m <6 m

II: 49 – <79 ft 20 – <30 ft

15 – <24 m 6 – <9 m

III: 79 – <118 ft 30 – <45 ft

24 – <36 m 9 – <13.5 m

IV: 118 – <171 ft 45 – <60 ft

36 – <52 m 13.5 – <18.5 m

V: 171 – <214 ft 60 – <66 ft

52 – <65 m 18.5 – <20 m

VI: 214 – <262 ft 66 – <80 ft

65 – <80 m 20 – <24.5 m

Page 29

A380 vs. B747-400

(72.2 m)

(79.8 m)

(24.1 m)

(64.4 m)

(70.6 m)

(19.4 m)

(560 tons) (396 tons)

Airport Reference Code (ARC)

Determined by the “most demanding” aircraft (or

“design aircraft”, or “critical aeroplane”) that the

airport is designed to serve

The design aircraft need NOT be

– An aircraft which is currently using the airport

– An existing aircraft (can be a hypothetical future

aircraft)

Different runways may have different Runway

Design Codes (RDC): ARC of entire airport will then

be determined by the “highest” RDC available

– E.g., if RDC of Runway 1 is 4-E and of Runway 2

4-C, then ARC is 4-E Page 30

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rationale

Page 32

Remarks: ICAO and FAA Airport Reference Codes

Practically all major commercial airports belong to the ICAO Code #4 class

In practice, Outer Main Gear Wheel Span (ICAO) is “dominated” by Wing Span

Similarly, Tail Height (FAA) is “dominated” by Wing Span

ICAO Code Letters A-F Wing Spans correspond exactly to FAA Airplane Design Groups I-VI wingspans

Most geometric specifications for airports are determined by the Wing Span of the most demanding aircraft

Page 33

●787-8

● ●A350-800A350-900

●747-8

Reference Codes of Wide-Body Aircraft

Page 34

Wide-Body Aircraft: Range vs. Seating Capacity

Page 35

Examples of Geometric Specifications (ICAO Annex 14)

C D E F

Runway width 45 45 45 60

Taxiway width 18 23 23 25

Runway centerline to taxiway

centerline

168 176 182.5 190

Runway centerline to holdline 90 90 90 107.5

Taxiway centerline to taxiway

centerline

44 66.5 80 97.5

Taxiway centerline to object 26 40.5 47.5 57.5

Taxilane centerline to object 24.5 36 42.5 50.5

Page 36

• Code #4 aircraft; distances are in meters; assumes

instrument runway at sea level

Page 37










rationale

Rationale for Dimensional Specifications

The rationale for many of the dimensional

specifications in the ICAO Annex 14 is provided

in the Aerodrome Design Manual, Doc 9157

(Part 1: Runways, Part 2: Taxiways)

The Aerodrome Design Manual can also be used

to estimate dimensional specifications for

accommodating future aircraft development (e.g.,

Code Letter G)

The rationale for some of the FAA’s dimensional

specifications can be found in Appendices 8

(Runways) and 9 (Taxiways) of older versions

(e.g., 1989) of the FAA’s Airport Design advisory

circular (AC 150/5300-13) Page 38

ICAO: Taxiway Centerline to Taxiway Centerline

Page 39

S = WS + C + Z

For Code F, WS=80 m, C=4.5 m, Z=13 m; therefore

S=97.5 m

Page 40

Single lane vs. dual lane access to stands

Note as well:

• Taxiway centerline to taxiway centerline: 1.2x(wingspan of

most demanding a/c) + 10 ft (3m)

• Taxiway centerline to object: 0.7x(wingspan of most

demanding a/c) + 10 ft (3m)

Source: FAA AC 150/5300-13 (1989 edition)

Questions? Comments?

Page 41

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