Deltares - UNESCO...Deltares • We are working on smart innovations in the field of water and...
Transcript of Deltares - UNESCO...Deltares • We are working on smart innovations in the field of water and...
Deltares
• We are working on smart innovations in the field of water and subsurface
• We are the knowledge partner of the Dutch government.
• We make our knowledge applicable worldwide.
• We are a strategic partner and trusted advisor internationally.
• We believe in open source / freeware software.
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Andrew Warren
Applying DAPP to confront long term (climate) uncertainties in planning
29 October 2020
Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways
Potential Futures
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Under deep uncertainty decision makers should aim for robust plans that can be adapted over time
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Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP)
• A systematic framework for adaptive planning that explicitly considers decision making through time.
• Specifies short-term actions and thresholdsbeyond which additional actions are needed.
• Formulates monitoring plan to monitor signals of systemic change
• Helps focus on important planning questions concerning deep uncertainties
− Which actions to prioritise, which to postpone
− Identification of potential situations of (low-)‘regret’
− Illumination of path-dependencies
− Identification of robust and flexible strategies
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4. Develop and evaluate adaptation pathways
3. Identify actions and assess ATP/OTP conditions and timing
1. Describe system, objectives, uncertainties
5. Design adaptive plan: short-term actions, long-term
options and adaptation signals
Reassess
Actions
Reassess
2. Assess vulnerability/opportunities:
adaptation/opportunity thresholds (ATP/OTP)
6. Implement the plan
7. Monitor: ATP approaching? Actions or reassessment?
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Adaptation Pathways Map
• Maps show different possible sequences of decisions to achieve objectives
• Scorecard helps to evaluate the pathways and decisions
8Haasnoot et al. (2013). 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.12.006
Phased approach to DAPP
Awareness raising:
• Serious gaming
• Introduction to adaptive planning methodology
http://deltagame.deltares.nl 9
Phased approach to DAPP
Level III: Full assessment of pathways
Requirements
for further analysis
and/or modellingNa
rra
tive
s
Level II: Quantitative design of pathways
Level I: Initial qualitative pathways - narratives
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DAPP applications
Adaptive pathways studies in practice
Adaptive pathways in guidance
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Assessment of alternative flood mitigation
strategies for C7-Basin in Miami, Florida
System vulnerable to sea level rise due to:
• Low topography
• High groundwater table
• Sandy soils and porous limestones
• Complex water management system
(i.e. governance)
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Miami C7 Basin (2017)
Level I: Workshop to explore pathways narratives
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To be
modelled
• M0 – No action
• M1 – Local flood mitigation: flood walls, exfiltration
trenches, flap gates, and local pumps
• M2 – Regional flood mitigation: forward pumps at
S-27 coastal structure (small & large pumps)
• M3 – Land-use mitigation: raise roads and buildings
to 6, 7 or 8 feet elevation
Possible adaptation options
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Level II: Quantitative analyses
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Hydrologic Drivers:
• Rainfall (4x);
• Storm Surge (1/10)
• Sea Level Rise (3x)
Adaptation Options
Hydrodynamic Model
XPSWMM
Delft-FIAT
Dynamic Adaptive
Policy Pathways
(DAPP)
(M $)
Exp
ecte
d a
nn
ua
l d
am
ag
e
(M$
)
Timing of adaptation thresholds from modelling
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2065 (2.21 ft)
SLR1
SLR32045
2025 2050
2065 (0.76 ft)
Objective:
Expected annual damage (EAD)
should not exceed current levels
Threshold = current EAD
(M $)
EA
D (
M$)
Current EAD
Adaptation pathways
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Structural
measures
Land use
measures
Pathways generator tool: http://pathways.deltares.nl
Adaptation pathways
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Structural
measures
Land use
measures
Pathways generator tool: http://pathways.deltares.nl
Adaptation pathways
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• Land use measures are
needed in the end
• Installing pumps can buy
some time.
Structural
measures
Land use
measures
Pathways generator tool: http://pathways.deltares.nl
Additional information
Tools supporting DAPP…
Delft-FIAT
Adaptation Support Tool
Pathways generatorSerious Games
Fast integrated models
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…and many more!
Pathways as part of other guidance
• CRIDA – AGWA-IHE-USACE-Deltares
• IWRM planning in the Philippines - WB
• Coastal adaptation New Zealand
• Nature-based solutions (WB + ADB)
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www.deepuncertainty.org
Annual meeting 10-12 November (virtual)
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Summary
Conclusion
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• Versatile approach to incorporate deep uncertainties
into planning processes and identify flexible and
robust strategies
• Adaptation thresholds and scenarios to assess if
and when any limits, thresholds, or opportunities occur.
• Explore adaptation pathways to identify ‘regrets’,
path-dependencies and formulate adaptive plans
• Monitoring plan to identify approaching thresholds
• Timescales of adaptation are important
(i.e. lead time & lifetime)
• Various levels of assessment: narratives, model-
based pathways
Questions?
www.deltares.nl | pathways.deltares.nl